Nicole Foss And Max Keiser Talk Greed, Fear, Downward Spirals And Risk Divisions
Nicole Foss talks to Max Keiser in On The Edge at PressTV
The Automatic Earth's Senior Editor Nicole Foss talks to Max Keiser again, this time on PressTV's On The Edge with Max Keiser.
Nicole and Max discuss Europe's shrinking pie, Canada's bursting bubble, the ongoing global debt deflation, the eternal tug of war between greed and fear, the greater fool, and the similarities the demise of the banking system in 14th century Venice has with Washington DC today.
Interestingly, Max ticks off a whole list of points that came up in his previous conversations with Nicole over the past few years, and where she has now been proven right. A convergence of opinions looks to be taking shape.
The world at large may not yet be ready to embrace the entire picture we have been painting at The Automatic Earth, and that would perhaps be too much to expect given that our picture is substantially different from the one offered by the vast majority of "opinion makers", but step by step we do seem to be getting through.
"What we're seeing is that the pie is shrinking; there's not enough to go around. When the pie shrinks, when you have economic contraction, you also have a contraction of the trust horizon. What that means is that national and international institutions become stranded assets from a trust perspective. They lose political legitimacy; this leads to a great deal of social polarization. [..] People are more tightly defining what constitutes "us", and defining "them" as some kind of threat."
"This is really only the beginning of austerity; the beginning in terms of what's going to happen in places in the European periphery, but also the beginning in terms of the number of countries that are affected. This dynamic is going to spread from the periphery, increasingly into the core of Europe and is going to cause bigger and bigger problems for the fabric of society. "
"Money is flooding into places that have huge problems, but their problems are less immediate than the European periphery. We're going to start to see enormous divisions between different degrees of risk: within the European Union it'll be the periphery vs the center, but for some people that’s not enough risk avoidance, it has to be inside the eurozone vs outside the eurozone entirely. I think we're going to see all those risk divisions, maybe long term vs short term as well, all these risk divisions are going to blow out in terms of spreads over the next while.
And we're really going to see attempts at very large movements of capital, flight to safety, but the governments will try and prevent that with capital flight controls of all kinds, as they're already doing in parts of the periphery. It won't work, it will only feed the cycle of fear, the stability mechanism is not enough.
They can't get ahead of the curve; everything they're doing is too little too late, and when fear is in control then you have a downward spiral and it won't stop until deleveraging has run its course. Until the small amount of remaining debt is acceptably collateralized to the few remaining creditors, and we're absolutely nowhere near that point at the moment, we're far closer to a top than a bottom."
Update: I know this ain't the 4th of July, but here's still wishing anyway that all them Jersey girls will be safe and sound tonight and beyond; this one goes out to you.
Sandy, the angels have lost their desire for us
I spoke to 'em just last night and they said they won't
set themselves on fire for us anymore
Variable, "Perhaps there are more "low-tech" renewable solutions you would suggest instead?"
Perhaps a dose of Clare Wolfe is in order. Always been fun these past decades. www.backwoodshome.com/
Might help find 101 things to do when it's too soon to shoot the bastards
Perhaps a dose of Clare Wolfe is in order. Always been fun these past decades. www.backwoodshome.com/
Might help find 101 things to do when it's too soon to shoot the bastards
p01,
Heard somewhere by some credentialed guru, the only thing made any sense to me so far, "The technology to clean up Fukushima does not exist today."
So, they're firing up all the other plants.
Rock on.
Heard somewhere by some credentialed guru, the only thing made any sense to me so far, "The technology to clean up Fukushima does not exist today."
So, they're firing up all the other plants.
Rock on.
"It's wood for the fire, Professor. Keep warm and cook dinner."
Oh, around here fire wood is to burn on Christmas Eve, woodland/timberland is building material/agriculture. You are talking about wooded acreage as a fuel source. Can't imagine it competing with coal or natural gas, but I haven't done the numbers.
Heating with wood is a pretty low EROEI in my experience, what with saw chains, splitters, fuel etc. Unless the mill here is awash in mill ends, and I can get them to load the truck. Besides, every time I put down the felling axe, it stops working.
As for living in the boonies, on acreage, fine if you have a lot of expendable, dependable income (trust? annuity? doubloons?) to maintain that luxury. Or, if it was passed down in the family and you have spent a lot of time growing up on it and learning to work it.
Seems pretty hard on those in between. And my guess is, if the subsidies ever fail, the going is going to be even tougher on the established. (Think California tax dodge vineyards and Iowa corn ethanol credits).
Ever consider putting together some ideas to survive this "predicted" malaise right in your own town? That's my plan. I can always split if need be. But what if it works out OK? No one is an island. Sure, the well heeled can buy their survival farms, but they need us to maintain them. I would even think, in a vote over who gets cut off first, those 20 or so "compounders" out in east county vs. the towns folk here in the county seat...well.
Oh, around here fire wood is to burn on Christmas Eve, woodland/timberland is building material/agriculture. You are talking about wooded acreage as a fuel source. Can't imagine it competing with coal or natural gas, but I haven't done the numbers.
Heating with wood is a pretty low EROEI in my experience, what with saw chains, splitters, fuel etc. Unless the mill here is awash in mill ends, and I can get them to load the truck. Besides, every time I put down the felling axe, it stops working.
As for living in the boonies, on acreage, fine if you have a lot of expendable, dependable income (trust? annuity? doubloons?) to maintain that luxury. Or, if it was passed down in the family and you have spent a lot of time growing up on it and learning to work it.
Seems pretty hard on those in between. And my guess is, if the subsidies ever fail, the going is going to be even tougher on the established. (Think California tax dodge vineyards and Iowa corn ethanol credits).
Ever consider putting together some ideas to survive this "predicted" malaise right in your own town? That's my plan. I can always split if need be. But what if it works out OK? No one is an island. Sure, the well heeled can buy their survival farms, but they need us to maintain them. I would even think, in a vote over who gets cut off first, those 20 or so "compounders" out in east county vs. the towns folk here in the county seat...well.
Escape From New York City - A Mass Exodus Begins Now chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/11/escape-from-new-york-city-mass-exodus.html
JZ,
The herd is quite happy because we're near the peak of the rally. Greed/optimism has been the driver for the last 3 years, be fear/pessimism will be the driver over the next few. It starts small but builds over time. I'm looking at where we've come from, where we're going, and trying to anticipate trend changes.
The herd is quite happy because we're near the peak of the rally. Greed/optimism has been the driver for the last 3 years, be fear/pessimism will be the driver over the next few. It starts small but builds over time. I'm looking at where we've come from, where we're going, and trying to anticipate trend changes.
Viscount St Albans,
I know the tendency will be to shoot the messenger, so to speak, but I couldn't sleep at night if I didn't warn people.
I know the tendency will be to shoot the messenger, so to speak, but I couldn't sleep at night if I didn't warn people.
Thanks for the response, Stoneleigh.
The herd seems to be getting happier though:
www.nbcnews.com/business/economywatch/consumer-confidence-hits-4-year-high-survey-shows-1C6802117
The herd seems to be getting happier though:
www.nbcnews.com/business/economywatch/consumer-confidence-hits-4-year-high-survey-shows-1C6802117
@g-minor
Thank you - exactly my point about wood/timber.
@Viscount St. Albans,
Not to speak for Stoneleigh, but I might suggest a little something called "integrity".
I recognize there are many "lizard brain" individuals out there who will say whatever is necessary to optimize their situation in life.
But some people just can't help but see something wrong and want to speak truth to power, call a spade a spade, etc. They accept the consequences of their actions because they choose to live a life of values (or at least less malleable ethics).
Cheers.
Thank you - exactly my point about wood/timber.
@Viscount St. Albans,
Not to speak for Stoneleigh, but I might suggest a little something called "integrity".
I recognize there are many "lizard brain" individuals out there who will say whatever is necessary to optimize their situation in life.
But some people just can't help but see something wrong and want to speak truth to power, call a spade a spade, etc. They accept the consequences of their actions because they choose to live a life of values (or at least less malleable ethics).
Cheers.
The coming new pharaohs and their gestapo forces will be far too busy fighting real megaphones stirring real crowds in the streets and also busy dodging knifes on dark Palace corridors. Besides, does it strike you as TAE's message has been taken seriously thus far? Ilargi certainly does not seem to think so:
"The world at large may not yet be ready to embrace the entire picture we have been painting at The Automatic Earth, and that would perhaps be too much to expect given that our picture is substantially different from the one offered by the vast majority of "opinion makers", but step by step we do seem to be getting through."
That is not to say that the future pharaohs, once firmly established, might not include (in some temperate climate, certainly not in Canada -pharaohs and cold climate don't mix very well, apparently, except in Siberia) some more extreme and lower EROEI forms of keeping the industrial dream alive: scapegoating and loss of property and/or debt slavery, but that is in the "modestly interesting future" as Ilargi wisely put it in a previous post, and we'd have to make it to that future first.
"The world at large may not yet be ready to embrace the entire picture we have been painting at The Automatic Earth, and that would perhaps be too much to expect given that our picture is substantially different from the one offered by the vast majority of "opinion makers", but step by step we do seem to be getting through."
That is not to say that the future pharaohs, once firmly established, might not include (in some temperate climate, certainly not in Canada -pharaohs and cold climate don't mix very well, apparently, except in Siberia) some more extreme and lower EROEI forms of keeping the industrial dream alive: scapegoating and loss of property and/or debt slavery, but that is in the "modestly interesting future" as Ilargi wisely put it in a previous post, and we'd have to make it to that future first.
@ Stoneleigh
Why risk it all?
The crushing penury of the future will bring horrific recriminations from TPTB. Central authorities will look for scapegoats at all layers of society. Yelling fire in the crowded theater with a web megaphone will make you low hanging fruit for the coming blame game. Aren't you putting everything you've worked so hard to build in Canada at risk?
The web doesn't forget. Do you ever think or worry about that?
I hope this doesn't sound like some kind of veiled threat on my part. It certainly isn't meant to be one. It's just a nagging question. Today's civil society norms probably won't survive in a world with a 90% collapse in real estate, commodity and stock markets.
Why risk it all?
The crushing penury of the future will bring horrific recriminations from TPTB. Central authorities will look for scapegoats at all layers of society. Yelling fire in the crowded theater with a web megaphone will make you low hanging fruit for the coming blame game. Aren't you putting everything you've worked so hard to build in Canada at risk?
The web doesn't forget. Do you ever think or worry about that?
I hope this doesn't sound like some kind of veiled threat on my part. It certainly isn't meant to be one. It's just a nagging question. Today's civil society norms probably won't survive in a world with a 90% collapse in real estate, commodity and stock markets.
@variable,
What would be the market for timber or timber land in a world wide economic rout? I see why these local log decks are filling right now for export to Asia (Japan/China), but will these markets still demand wood products in future circumstances? And aren't there enough houses already in North America?
What would be the market for timber or timber land in a world wide economic rout? I see why these local log decks are filling right now for export to Asia (Japan/China), but will these markets still demand wood products in future circumstances? And aren't there enough houses already in North America?
Thanks Nicole.
With regards to renewables specifically - I'm nervous about the investment cost of say, a solar set-up with marine battery backups should any of the 'tech' fail and I not have the resources/skills to repair or replace the system. Perhaps there are more "low-tech" renewable solutions you would suggest instead?
Wood/timber is the #1 answer that comes to my mind. With land prices (hopefully) falling, my family has been watching for large properties with substantial hardwood resources - hoping that if we go this route, if all else fails at least we won't freeze in the dark during the winter!
I'm also going to keep my eyes peeled on this site to see if I can find anything of interest: www.lowtechmagazine.com/
With regards to renewables specifically - I'm nervous about the investment cost of say, a solar set-up with marine battery backups should any of the 'tech' fail and I not have the resources/skills to repair or replace the system. Perhaps there are more "low-tech" renewable solutions you would suggest instead?
Wood/timber is the #1 answer that comes to my mind. With land prices (hopefully) falling, my family has been watching for large properties with substantial hardwood resources - hoping that if we go this route, if all else fails at least we won't freeze in the dark during the winter!
I'm also going to keep my eyes peeled on this site to see if I can find anything of interest: www.lowtechmagazine.com/
Variable81 wrote: "I think you are more self sufficient than me & my family by orders of magnitude, but it suddenly dawned on me that I'm saving all my cash for... I don't know what? Obviously for food/water/energy to ride out the deflation, but surely there must be some things that you are not willing to pay the risk premium to own now but will be looking to pick up after prices collapse (unless you truly are 100% self-sufficient - if so, congrats). Just curious to know what those items/things/services might be and your reasoning behind it?"
My approach was a bit different - I bought things like land before the worst of the boom, so I didn't overpay by too much. I sold a home in the UK, which was highly inflated and bought in Canada where prices were much lower, so I could buy a farm here and kit it out with renewable energy for significantly less than I got for selling my British home. I have no debt on it, so I only have to find the money for property taxes. Now I don't have to care what it's worth, because it isn't going to be sold.
There are still things I want to do - insulation, hot water radiators, back up manual well pump etc, but these things should be affordable up front. At my place it is mostly a case of continuing to expand production and the ability to preserve food. The energy infrastructure is already in place, and has been for several years. No grid tie, because I did it for the energy supply, not for a government payout.
My approach was a bit different - I bought things like land before the worst of the boom, so I didn't overpay by too much. I sold a home in the UK, which was highly inflated and bought in Canada where prices were much lower, so I could buy a farm here and kit it out with renewable energy for significantly less than I got for selling my British home. I have no debt on it, so I only have to find the money for property taxes. Now I don't have to care what it's worth, because it isn't going to be sold.
There are still things I want to do - insulation, hot water radiators, back up manual well pump etc, but these things should be affordable up front. At my place it is mostly a case of continuing to expand production and the ability to preserve food. The energy infrastructure is already in place, and has been for several years. No grid tie, because I did it for the energy supply, not for a government payout.
Always like to read this again when I find myself doubting it's validity (threat?), or if I at least begin believing otherwise, at the inducement of various bloggers and pundits, for they/we are only bloggers with a few interested listeners, and some google ads. But the man who delivered this speech is at the levers of the entire worlds economic systems. With a Pentagon full of henchmen, just in case there are any dissenters.
www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm
Age old epitaph over mission soup kitchens, "All Ye Who Fought The Fed, Enter Here."
The choice, it seems to me, in whether it's austerity on steroids, solving the problem rapidly, in a mass deleveraging event, instantly undermining political authority, (though it bought FDR three terms) or kicking the can toward the cliff, devaluing until it hits the canyon floor, is the Feds alone.
Of course, in this latter scenario, the kicker goes over the edge with the can, just later, buying time for the rats to feather their nests in their well defended compounds.
Do we really want to fight this cornered Leviathan? I'm set for the next while, either way, but if one is on the fringe and barely making ends meet, sans enough resources to make it at least 3 or 4 years with no income, it might be wise to read this link slowly and intently, seeking it's hard message.
Especially read the fourth paragraph under the heading "Curing Deflation."
As Hugh Hendry said at Buttonwood, para, " $1 Trillion didn't do it. $4.5 Trillion didn't do it. But some $Trillion has to, eventually."
Now, granted, cash is good to hold, in reasonably modest enough amounts to convert to necessities or inflation hedges, but if held in the latter situation, it burns real fast. Also, pretty hard to buy 40 acres of bottom land in Kansas with greenies without some escrow officer generating a 1099. Doesn't matter that you can prove where it came from. It's the legal expense of doing so that bites.
Damn, wish something would happen so I could finally stop walking this fence rail! Bonds and Bling, Bling and Bonds...Ghosts and Goblins, Happy Halloween, all.
www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm
Age old epitaph over mission soup kitchens, "All Ye Who Fought The Fed, Enter Here."
The choice, it seems to me, in whether it's austerity on steroids, solving the problem rapidly, in a mass deleveraging event, instantly undermining political authority, (though it bought FDR three terms) or kicking the can toward the cliff, devaluing until it hits the canyon floor, is the Feds alone.
Of course, in this latter scenario, the kicker goes over the edge with the can, just later, buying time for the rats to feather their nests in their well defended compounds.
Do we really want to fight this cornered Leviathan? I'm set for the next while, either way, but if one is on the fringe and barely making ends meet, sans enough resources to make it at least 3 or 4 years with no income, it might be wise to read this link slowly and intently, seeking it's hard message.
Especially read the fourth paragraph under the heading "Curing Deflation."
As Hugh Hendry said at Buttonwood, para, " $1 Trillion didn't do it. $4.5 Trillion didn't do it. But some $Trillion has to, eventually."
Now, granted, cash is good to hold, in reasonably modest enough amounts to convert to necessities or inflation hedges, but if held in the latter situation, it burns real fast. Also, pretty hard to buy 40 acres of bottom land in Kansas with greenies without some escrow officer generating a 1099. Doesn't matter that you can prove where it came from. It's the legal expense of doing so that bites.
Damn, wish something would happen so I could finally stop walking this fence rail! Bonds and Bling, Bling and Bonds...Ghosts and Goblins, Happy Halloween, all.
Pipefit,
The flight to quality will pick up momentum dramatically once the downtrend really reasserts itself. We haven't seen anything yet. That will benefit the US for a while. It is currently the best looking horse at the glue factory, which will count for something for a while. Of course default is inevitable at some point down the line, for most if not all developed countries. Loss of confidence in all fiat currencies is also coming eventually, but not yet. That won't happen in all places at once. When the euro falls, and countries revert to their former currencies after defaulting on their debts, I do expect their former currencies not to be repositories of confidence. In such places, the time gap between deflation (ie credit collapse) and hyperinflation (ie actual currency printing into plummeting confidence) could be quite short. In places like the US it will be much longer - probably a decade or so as an educated guess, given that deflation and depression form a mutually reinforcing downward spiral that takes many years to play out. Other countries lie in between timewise.
The flight to quality will pick up momentum dramatically once the downtrend really reasserts itself. We haven't seen anything yet. That will benefit the US for a while. It is currently the best looking horse at the glue factory, which will count for something for a while. Of course default is inevitable at some point down the line, for most if not all developed countries. Loss of confidence in all fiat currencies is also coming eventually, but not yet. That won't happen in all places at once. When the euro falls, and countries revert to their former currencies after defaulting on their debts, I do expect their former currencies not to be repositories of confidence. In such places, the time gap between deflation (ie credit collapse) and hyperinflation (ie actual currency printing into plummeting confidence) could be quite short. In places like the US it will be much longer - probably a decade or so as an educated guess, given that deflation and depression form a mutually reinforcing downward spiral that takes many years to play out. Other countries lie in between timewise.
JZ wrote: "As long as the global CB's continue to print in their various ways, prices can continue to rise, even in the face of deflationary forces. Anyone who argues against this fact has the price action of the last 3 plus years working against their argument. How much longer these inflationary events can persist is an open question. Given the austerian politics in Europe and the U.S. I'd wager we are getting close to the end of the line, however. Austerity is killing the golden goose in Europe. If that meme catches fire in the U.S. (fiscal cliff nonsense) then the tepid recovery here is all but over."
The last three years years of rally have seen a temporary reflation. Prices rise during such periods, as a lagging indicator of the 'heroic' efforts made to prop up the money supply and keep the global ponzi scheme from crashing (yet). Prices in general may continue to rise for a while as the relation goes into reverse, since prices changes lag changes in the money supply. Prices will later follow to the downside though, virtually across the board. The essentials will receive relative price support however, as a larger percentage of a smaller money supply will be chasing them.
Several European countries have effectively gone over the cliff already, even though they are not yet formally in sovereign default. The dominos are falling one by one, and austerity will hasten the process. Austerity will spread elsewhere too.
What you see in the US is not a tepid recovery, but a temporary interlude of increasing confidence within a larger downtrend. That downtrend is very likely to resume soon. The US will continue to benefit from capital flight to safety from elsewhere, at least for a while. That will prop up the dollar and keep US interest rates lower than would otherwise have been (which doesn't mean they can't still rise).
The last three years years of rally have seen a temporary reflation. Prices rise during such periods, as a lagging indicator of the 'heroic' efforts made to prop up the money supply and keep the global ponzi scheme from crashing (yet). Prices in general may continue to rise for a while as the relation goes into reverse, since prices changes lag changes in the money supply. Prices will later follow to the downside though, virtually across the board. The essentials will receive relative price support however, as a larger percentage of a smaller money supply will be chasing them.
Several European countries have effectively gone over the cliff already, even though they are not yet formally in sovereign default. The dominos are falling one by one, and austerity will hasten the process. Austerity will spread elsewhere too.
What you see in the US is not a tepid recovery, but a temporary interlude of increasing confidence within a larger downtrend. That downtrend is very likely to resume soon. The US will continue to benefit from capital flight to safety from elsewhere, at least for a while. That will prop up the dollar and keep US interest rates lower than would otherwise have been (which doesn't mean they can't still rise).
Global competitive devaluation has kept currencies relative to each other more or less stable in spite of global monetization. This competitive monetization in part explains the rise in commodity and equity prices, and thus the inflationary movement subsequent to 2009. In other words, as long as the global CB's continue to print in their various ways, prices can continue to rise, even in the face of deflationary forces. Anyone who argues against this fact has the price action of the last 3 plus years working against their argument. How much longer these inflationary events can persist is an open question. Given the austerian politics in Europe and the U.S. I'd wager we are getting close to the end of the line, however. Austerity is killing the golden goose in Europe. If that meme catches fire in the U.S. (fiscal cliff nonsense) then the tepid recovery here is all but over.
Having lived through a HI, I can attest that it is a loss of confidence in the currency. People were flocking into a foreign currency at any cost, and everyone was obsessed with converting the local currency into a foreign currency. The foreign currency was used as a secondary currency.
Bonus karma points to the commenter who guesses what the foreign currency was (this is not a trick question, BTW). Extra bonus points to anyone guesses what the currency of choice will be this time around, when HI hits the peripheral countries and the euro implodes into nothingness.
Bonus karma points to the commenter who guesses what the foreign currency was (this is not a trick question, BTW). Extra bonus points to anyone guesses what the currency of choice will be this time around, when HI hits the peripheral countries and the euro implodes into nothingness.
Nassim wrote:
Hi Nassim. You really hit the nail on the head with your last half sentence. The USA Govt. has debts and unfunded liabilities of about $100 trillion (present worth), so they are quite bankrupt. They are running deficits (GAAP) of $5 trillion per year, and on any sort of economic weakness that increases greatly.
As Nicole stated so correctly, these governments are quickly losing legitimacy, and the currencies they issue are too. That is text book hyper inflation. Also, the rest of the world has $12 trillion in liquid dollar assets. The flight to quality is butting up against the massive fiscal deficits as well as the fact that the dollar is already overowned.
Pipefit,
It looks like you misunderstand the message Stoneleigh and Ilargi are making.
If money (i.e. credit) disappears at a faster rate than stuff does and its speed continues to drop, that does not lead to hyperinflation.
Hyperinflation is always a political choice and right now the guys and gals with all the dough do not want hyperinflation - only those with massive debts could ever wish for such and event.
It looks like you misunderstand the message Stoneleigh and Ilargi are making.
If money (i.e. credit) disappears at a faster rate than stuff does and its speed continues to drop, that does not lead to hyperinflation.
Hyperinflation is always a political choice and right now the guys and gals with all the dough do not want hyperinflation - only those with massive debts could ever wish for such and event.
Hi Nassim. You really hit the nail on the head with your last half sentence. The USA Govt. has debts and unfunded liabilities of about $100 trillion (present worth), so they are quite bankrupt. They are running deficits (GAAP) of $5 trillion per year, and on any sort of economic weakness that increases greatly.
As Nicole stated so correctly, these governments are quickly losing legitimacy, and the currencies they issue are too. That is text book hyper inflation. Also, the rest of the world has $12 trillion in liquid dollar assets. The flight to quality is butting up against the massive fiscal deficits as well as the fact that the dollar is already overowned.
Variable81 wrote:
I think you are more self sufficient than me & my family by orders of magnitude, but it suddenly dawned on me that I'm saving all my cash for... I don't know what? Obviously for food/water/energy to ride out the deflation, but surely there must be some things that you are not willing to pay the risk premium to own now but will be looking to pick up after prices collapse (unless you truly are 100% self-sufficient - if so, congrats). Just curious to know what those items/things/services might be and your reasoning behind it?
Here's part of our list:
- Solar panels. Not sure about battery bank, but Ilargi's comments are on my mind.
- Electric boiler to replace current natural gas-fueled one. Replaced pump last year, so that should last.
- Electric heat pump water heater and parts, or else regular electric one if heat pump model doesn't have good track record by then.
- More insulation.
- LED lamps.
- Hand-pump water filter. Probably sooner rather than later.
- Another rain barrel for overflow.
- Solar oven.
- CSA share for meat to keep local farmer in business. (We grow most of our own veggies, will add mushrooms and egg-layers next year. Maybe bees. Already invested in jump start of 40 cubic yards of compost, 20+ fruit trees, berry patches, hundreds of native plants to supply food for pollinators and other beneficial insects, and more. Our city lot is about 0.22 acre.)
- Parts for our induction stove. (Still need to ask our appliance repair shop guy which are most likely to fail.)
We've been looking for other ideas. Thanks for asking, V.
I think you are more self sufficient than me & my family by orders of magnitude, but it suddenly dawned on me that I'm saving all my cash for... I don't know what? Obviously for food/water/energy to ride out the deflation, but surely there must be some things that you are not willing to pay the risk premium to own now but will be looking to pick up after prices collapse (unless you truly are 100% self-sufficient - if so, congrats). Just curious to know what those items/things/services might be and your reasoning behind it?
Here's part of our list:
- Solar panels. Not sure about battery bank, but Ilargi's comments are on my mind.
- Electric boiler to replace current natural gas-fueled one. Replaced pump last year, so that should last.
- Electric heat pump water heater and parts, or else regular electric one if heat pump model doesn't have good track record by then.
- More insulation.
- LED lamps.
- Hand-pump water filter. Probably sooner rather than later.
- Another rain barrel for overflow.
- Solar oven.
- CSA share for meat to keep local farmer in business. (We grow most of our own veggies, will add mushrooms and egg-layers next year. Maybe bees. Already invested in jump start of 40 cubic yards of compost, 20+ fruit trees, berry patches, hundreds of native plants to supply food for pollinators and other beneficial insects, and more. Our city lot is about 0.22 acre.)
- Parts for our induction stove. (Still need to ask our appliance repair shop guy which are most likely to fail.)
We've been looking for other ideas. Thanks for asking, V.
What a great interview, Thanks Stoneleigh.
Have finally come to understand your idea on how the relative value of a good goes up in a deflation to all but the holder of a good amount of cash. For some reason it was always hazy and escaped me, the part of the non cash purchaser having no money, until listening to this superb discussion.
Have finally come to understand your idea on how the relative value of a good goes up in a deflation to all but the holder of a good amount of cash. For some reason it was always hazy and escaped me, the part of the non cash purchaser having no money, until listening to this superb discussion.
@Stoneleigh,
Nicole, I'm going to go ahead and make the assumption that you practice what you preach and are sitting on some hard cash.
I don't know if you're comfortable in answering this question but I'm curious if there are any examples of goods/items/services/initiatives you are saving your dollars for during the long deflationary winter?
I think you are more self sufficient than me & my family by orders of magnitude, but it suddenly dawned on me that I'm saving all my cash for... I don't know what? Obviously for food/water/energy to ride out the deflation, but surely there must be some things that you are not willing to pay the risk premium to own now but will be looking to pick up after prices collapse (unless you truly are 100% self-sufficient - if so, congrats). Just curious to know what those items/things/services might be and your reasoning behind it?
Also, any thoughts as to where the Canadian dollar should trade in relation to the US dollar? You've mentioned that the US dollar is clearly undervalued, and CDN/US parity doesn't seem to be the norm. Just curious if you have an approximate target for where you think the Canadian dollar could fall to in relation to the US dollar before leveling out. If not, perhaps you can provide some details around the risks that non-US residents may face by sitting on physical US dollars (I am aware that US dollar accounts, at least in Canada, are not covered by CDIC - whatever good CDIC would do in a total financial collapse, of course!).
As always, I appreciate any feedback you can provide.
Nicole, I'm going to go ahead and make the assumption that you practice what you preach and are sitting on some hard cash.
I don't know if you're comfortable in answering this question but I'm curious if there are any examples of goods/items/services/initiatives you are saving your dollars for during the long deflationary winter?
I think you are more self sufficient than me & my family by orders of magnitude, but it suddenly dawned on me that I'm saving all my cash for... I don't know what? Obviously for food/water/energy to ride out the deflation, but surely there must be some things that you are not willing to pay the risk premium to own now but will be looking to pick up after prices collapse (unless you truly are 100% self-sufficient - if so, congrats). Just curious to know what those items/things/services might be and your reasoning behind it?
Also, any thoughts as to where the Canadian dollar should trade in relation to the US dollar? You've mentioned that the US dollar is clearly undervalued, and CDN/US parity doesn't seem to be the norm. Just curious if you have an approximate target for where you think the Canadian dollar could fall to in relation to the US dollar before leveling out. If not, perhaps you can provide some details around the risks that non-US residents may face by sitting on physical US dollars (I am aware that US dollar accounts, at least in Canada, are not covered by CDIC - whatever good CDIC would do in a total financial collapse, of course!).
As always, I appreciate any feedback you can provide.
Stoneleigh Occupies:
Nicole Foss Lecture Tour:
AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND March-June 2013
New Zealand May/June Dates still available
June 5 Takaka
Palm Beach Hall 7.30pm
June 6 Nelson
St Joseph’s Hall, Manuka St, 7.30pm
June 7 Port Motueka
Baycourt 7.30pm
June 9 Christchurch
WEA Rooms, 59 Glouscester St. 6.30pm
June 11 Christchurch
Polytechnic for Technology, Imagitech Theatre 12pm
June 12 Christchurch
BHU Organic Centre, Lincoln University 12.10pm
June 13 Timaru
Aoraki Polytechnic, Arthur Street 3pm
June 16 Oamaru
Oamaru Opera House. Thames St 10am
June 18 Dunedin
Pine Hill School Hall, 11 Hislop St, Pine Hill 7.30pm
June 19 Dunedin
Burns 2 Lecture Theatre, 95 Albany Street, University of Otago 6pm
June 22 Auckland
TBA TBA
June 24 Auckland
TBA TBA
US Fall 2013 - Dates Available
Request Lectures: StoneleighTravels •at• gmail •dot• com.
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