The Cyprus Deal is Already Under Threat (Of Course)

One day after it was agreed on and announced by the Eurogroup and Cyprus president Nicos Anastasiades, the deal that would turn the Eurozone into a Pandora's box like no other EU measure to date has done looks like it may never reach the finish line. The Cypriot parliament, in which freshly elected Anastasiades holds just 20 of 56 seats, has pushed a vote on the deal forward until Monday, a clear sign that the president's political adversaries will not easily be locked into an agreement that is obviously and for good reason hugely unpopular.
As I wrote yesterday in Bank Run In Cyprus; Who's Next?, this very curious looking deal has the potential to kill off confidence in the EU banking sector practically overnight. If bank deposits in Cyprus are not guaranteed (even if only up to a maximum), there is no reason for people in other Eurozone countries to trust their deposits will be treated any differently. In Cyprus, if the deal is voted through parliament, depositors will lose between 6.75% and 9.99% of their money, but there is nothing to keep the EU/IMF/ECB troika from imposing 20% or 40% (or you name it cuts) on deposits in Italy, Spain, France, take your pick.
There are reports that Anastasiades accepted the "agreement" because Germany made it a do or die deal, but that still doesn't explain why Berlin would take such an obvious risk with the entire EU banking sector. Although I have to admit the risk apparently wasn't recognized yesterday by 95% or more of the international press, so you might be tempted to believe that neither Germany nor the rest of the Eurogroup saw it either. But that would be excessively stupid. And incompetent as they are, even I don't think they're that far gone.
I would think it's more likely that the 37% of deposits in Cyprus banks that are "foreign", i.e. largely Russian, have pushed European politicians into a crowdpleasing mode - punish the criminals! - that made them overlook broader consequences. But, really, that doesn't totally convince me either. Though I was greatly amused to read that Britain will compensate the 3500 troops it has stationed on Cyprus that have bank accounts there.
Still, when you see things happening that seem this far out of field, there's often an ulterior motive behind them. Like if the Eurogroup counted all along on Cyprus not accepting the terms of the deal forced upon it. Or Anastasiades counting on the fact that the deal would never be ratified by parliament.
Meanwhile, I'm curious to know who the Cypriot politicians on all sides of the aisle are talking to today. And yes, Beppe Grillo comes to mind again, Niall Farage perhaps. Who else can they expect any support from?
More tomorrow (the vote coincides with a national carnival holiday) and Tuesday. Let’s be clear on one thing in the meantime: the deal as it is on the table is an unmitigated disaster for Europe, and the effects will spill to at least the rest of the western world. At the same time, if Cyprus says no, the implied threat is that Europe will let it fall like a stone, bankrupt the banks, and throw it out of the Eurozone.
And that would be the end of the Eurozone; if Cyprus leaves, so will others. Are they really going to take that risk after 5 years, 500 emergency meetings and €5 trillion in bailouts? Hell no, you kidding?, but they still threaten to do it, and in such a transparent fashion? Why would Anastasiades, or anyone else for that matter, fall for that? Something doesn't add up here.
Liquidations and bank closures next.
www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-26/cyprus-last-remaining-big-bank-set-unexpected-liquidation
Is Cyprus' Last Remaining Big Bank Set For An Unexpected Liquidation?
But at this point I'd suggest it has turned into an out of control wildfire. I believe the process of throwing the lessor entities to the wolves has begun in spades.
Disintegration of the Euro is gaining speed now, add the complication of geopolitical posturing between Russia, China and the US. That spells Proxy War. What more convenient place to conduct that than Europe? Already have all the maps from the last two, and the US economy could use the boost, no? And Putin needs a popularity makeover at home.
A European Spring might be next up.
After observing the events of the last week, I'd get liquid and physical. If it isn't real and in your hands, you don't own it. Someone at ZH mentioned money in a bank account isn't yours, it's really an investment in the bank, like shares.
When one thinks about that, it makes sense. They re-lend it and share some of the interest with you, in return for your taking the risk with them. Now, is 0.10% an adequate risk premium in light of the present state of affairs?
All this FDIC stuff is propaganda, left over from the last confidence restoration campaign. It's already been reduced to $250 k per depositor, from $250k per account, in any given institution. What do that say to ya?
And, the best made plans...and planners...
And frankly, there's nothing else they can do, because what happens, really, is that there's no more capital. It has been spent & burned & evaporated. Everyone talking about capital controls misses the point that there's nothing (or not much) to control anymore.
That's all.
Its a troika experiment.
Now we get to see what happens when the central banks do the right thing and don't start up the printing press.
The objective is to get a default and gather the data from the resulting chaos.
All doomers should pay attention.
Coming To a Town Near You
Keep watching. Keep gathering your own data.
www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-25/word-out-place-sends-europe-tumbling
A Word Out Of Place Sends Europe Tumbling
Now, only the stock market finally crashing might spook the masses into paying attention to the fact that they don't have anything anymore.
And the stock market finally crumbles. Watch out.
The collectivist beaurocrats may be using Cyprus as an example of what will happen if the general electorate attempts widespread rejection of central management.
As always, just a thought.
Austerity is not an avoidable outcome given resource depletion, still folks do like to live in denial. Giving every buffoon the right to vote was always a flawed idea anyway, how can democracy possibly function when the vast majority of folks don't have a clue. On the other end of the big slapping stick, people who stand up and say my plan is the correct one, follow me, have a good probability of being psychopath variants.
Outcome remains assured, collapse and die off. Only the derivative is uncertain.
Have a nice day:)
"The last meaningful episode of deflation was in the 1930s. That’s also the last time the U.S. was truly at peace. Deflation is a peacetime phenomenon." HUH?
But read the whole piece...
www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-20/why-global-economies-face-an-age-of-deflation.html
Alex
You got the geopolitics right:
Reading between the lines, it looks like Russia is making a play on any gas resources off the shores of its old Soviet ally Syria, which interestingly is going through its own 'democratic' struggle. Maybe it likes the idea of total hegemonic control of all of the EU's gas supplies... Even if its 'years away'.
As for a military base, the UK has prior historical claim there
It is interesting how debt played a part in this back then as well:
Suffice to say the island has been a hot bed of geopolitics throughout the last century, and regardless of of its EU membership or not, will no doubt continue to be.
L,
Sid.
>>>>>
Latest via sky news:
Bravo, Alex!
To wit, here's your average person's bank run capability:
www.statisticbrain.com/american-family-financial-statistics/
I can't find any statistics for EU (Cyprus), but I doubt they're any better.
Sometimes I really wonder about this disconnect from reality.
The Gold Confiscation Of April 5, 1933
Boy, if there were ever a time NOT to worry about gold confiscation, (but rather to worry about everything-else confiscation), it is NOW.
Gold Confiscation
Is your point do not own gold because it can be confiscated, or to own nothing because it can be confiscated?
Should we all dispose of everything we own and walk naked on a pair of sandals and pray the swill don't take our sandals from us, or is it just the Gold they have brainwashed you into hating..??
Non of the above - did you even read the post?
Get it while you can, that is hard assets that will be useful. The best hard asset IMHO is to gain as much skill and knowledge (how to garden/mend/make/repair sustainably etc) that will enable you and others to live as independently and sustainably as possible in the future. Have you read Orlov? What does he say?
L,
Sid.
Is your point do not own gold because it can be confiscated, or to own nothing because it can be confiscated?
Should we all dispose of everything we own and walk naked on a pair of sandals and pray the swill don't take our sandals from us, or is it just the Gold they have brainwashed you into hating..??
Its a nice theory, but it will founder on the rocks of international geopolitics. Russia appears to be shopping for naval bases in the Mediterranean, and if Cyprus leaves the eurozone and readopts its Pound, Russia underwriting that Pound would seem like a natural way for them to support all that KGB money AND obtain a nice base in a sunny climate.
That doesn't even take into account any of the petroleum resources thought to be hiding under the seabed nearby the island.
I thought Greece would be the first to exit and be made the example. But many pointed out that the Euro can't really AFFORD, financially, for Greece to exit. They can, however, financially at least, afford a Cyprus exit. So Cyprus will be our horrifying example.
Here the Troika apparently gave Cyprus a choice that they knew Cyprus would probably not accept. If Cyprus accepts, that's a bonus. If it doesn't, they have their example.
There will be blood. And it will make Mario Draghi smile. Just what the doctor ordered.
When was the last time you tried to withdraw a large amount of cash? Its no that easy; oh, they'll give you a 'check' or a bankers draft or a BACS transfer, but hard cash? And that' assuming that the people selling
etc.
L,
Sid.
Gold, silver, stocks, reits, real estate, art, farmland, diamonds, hidden cash, commodity funds, oil drilling partnerships, natural gas mlps, junk bonds, corporate bonds, soverign debt.
None without some risk of course, but if you feel your funds are going to be confiscated anyway, the risk becomes less, or more tolerable. Perhaps that's the plan??
The Prof almost had it:
Where does one run to? For a start there is nowhere near enough hard cash for people to start hoarding that; about 3% if your lucky of the worlds wealth is in that form. No most of those lovely digital bits of 'wealth' have nowhere else to go but into some other digital storage facility. They got you by the one and two zeros so to speak...
L,
Sid.
www.itar-tass.com/en/c32/677099.html
They might imagine all that cash coming out of the negative interest accounts world wide now. As a bank run starts small, then exponentially expands, so does a run on where to spend the proceeds, while they are still worth anything.
This could very well be an attempt to light a fire under the reluctant consumer. Ill advised, it only serves to scare the horses further, but par for econ savvy impaired micro managers of a government controlled capitalism (fascism). The same logic that builds empty cities in China and proposes a $20 an hour minimum wage. Sure, driving up the cost of productivity will create more jobs, right? I mean, just mandate that struggling small businesses pay $200 an hour and we'll all drive Hummers. Gas will stay the same price though, yes?
Accomplishing this transition from savings to spending through the slow steady process of debasement was getting the manipulators nowhere. They were only able to stay slightly behind the rate of de-leveraging with their print fest. Admin costs (non productive elements) skim off too much of the newly created loot. They might be finally realizing it takes ever more money creation just to stay in the same place.
Of course, getting through to the anointed is like attempting to get building permits, " I have a customer that would like to build a...'NO!' Wait, just hear me out, he would bring jobs...'NO!' May I speak to your supervi...'NO! Is there any way to...'NO!' "
Mish has a nice piece on the positives of all this up. globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/03/from-smoldering-ashes-comes-good-news.html
Seems there is an ever growing chasm developing between the managers and the managed in our twisted system where the non productive rule over the producers, the latter demanding more and more supervision (protection?) be imposed on themselves as things deteriorate. Diminishing returns, maybe?
Other than swap meets and individual transactions at local community levels, we've never really given free market capitalism a chance, because it can't thrive in captivity, just as Chanterelle mushrooms can't.
I believe the day will come, as faith in complex institutions disintegrates, we will have no choice but to embrace the concept again, when the discomfort becomes like a rock in the shoe for enough folks, resulting in their ignoring the ranting and flailing of the controllers, as they stand on the side of the road with their hands out.
The National Government are pushing a Cyprus-style solution to bank failure in New Zealand which will see small depositors lose some of their savings to fund big bank bailouts, the Green Party said today.
Open Bank Resolution (OBR) is Finance Minister Bill English’s favoured option dealing with a major bank failure. If a bank fails under OBR, all depositors will have their savings reduced overnight to fund the bank’s bail out.
“Bill English is proposing a Cyprus-style solution for managing bank failure here in New Zealand – a solution that will see small depositors lose some of their savings to fund big bank bailouts,” said Green Party Co-leader Dr Russel Norman. “The Reserve Bank is in the final stages of implementing a system of managing bank failure called Open Bank Resolution. The scheme will put all bank depositors on the hook for bailing out their bank.
“Depositors will overnight have their savings shaved by the amount needed to keep the bank afloat. “While the details are still to be finalised, nearly all depositors will see their savings reduced by the same proportions.
more..
www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1303/S00306/national-planning-cyprus-style-solution-for-new-zealand.htm
thanks for insights - but I do not really think that stealing xx % from peoples accounts could set-up the break-up of the Eurozone.
That is too far-fetched, IMHO. That said, if it will cascade into similar actions in bigger nations, EU might break-up, but I think that will not happen.
People are to apathic to bother. And most of them does not have savings, rather debt, I suppose, so why bother taking away few bucks from the wealthy?
Just thinking...
Cheers,
Alex
P.S. - You mean Nigel Farage?
Blog Archive
- ► 2013 (13)
- ► May (2)
- ► April (3)
- ► March (3)
- ► February (2)
- ► January (3)
- ► 2012 (90)
- ► December (3)
- ► November (2)
- ► October (5)
- • 29 - Nicole Foss And Max Keiser Talk Greed, Fear, Downward Spirals And Risk Divisions
- • 23 - Japan Is Not A Good Example Of How Deflation Typically Plays Out
- • 16 - Household Net Worthless: Poverty Here We Come
- • 11 - What Happens When The Core Starts To Rot
- • 05 - The IMF -Inadvertently- Condemns The Eurozone
- ► September (5)
- ► August (8)
- • 30 - A Big Bad Brick Wall
- • 25 - Dear Angela, It's Time To Do The Right Thing
- • 19 - India Power Outage: The Shape of Things to Come?
- • 14 - The People Are Guaranteed to Lose
- • 10 - The Seductive Promises of Counterfeit CULTures
- • 07 - Here's The Science That Can Solve The Crisis
- • 04 - Lessons From the Full Tilt Ponzi
- • 01 - Culturally Programmed Myths of Omnipotence
- ► July (10)
- • 29 - How Will We Handle Our Losses?
- • 26 - Our Debts Must be Redeemed
- • 24 - Einstein's Definition of Gluttony
- • 22 - Super Rich Stash At Least $21 Trillion In Secret Tax Havens
- • 18 - Jeff Rubin and Oil Prices Revisited
- • 16 - Report: The Golden Dilemma
- • 12 - Europe Is Sliding Back Into Its Own Past
- • 10 - Libor was a criminal conspiracy from the start
- • 08 - Hubris Before The Storm
- • 03 - Unconventional Oil is NOT a Game Changer
- ► June (11)
- • 29 - Angela Merkel is Playing You For Fools
- • 23 - This Is Not America
- • 21 - Spanish Cook Books
- • 18 - Capital Flight, Capital Controls, Capital Fear
- • 18 - The Orkin Man: Which Side Are You On?
- • 15 - Goodness! Gracious! Great Wall's on Fire!
- • 13 - Autoimmune Finance: The System Attacks Itself
- • 09 - Europe: A Thousand Miles Behind
- • 06 - Welcome to the No-Growth Paradigm
- • 03 - If you love your kids, stop the bond bonanza
- • 01 - The truth about Europe - There is no solution Part 2: Growth doesn't rhyme with crunch
- ► May (9)
- • 29 - Espana en Fuego
- • 27 - Mammon is Hungry: Husband's Suicide One Day, Wells Fargo to Evict Wife The Next
- • 23 - All Hail the Greek Exit
- • 20 - Homo sapiens v. FWS
- • 18 - Deterrence is Dead
- • 17 - A world terrified by impotent ghosts from the past
- • 13 - Discovering the "End" in "Extend & Pretend"
- • 11 - There Is Not Enough Money On Planet Earth
- • 05 - China, or How To Live in Interesting Times
- ► April (8)
- • 29 - Beyond Zero Emissions: What's Wrong with Big Green Tech
- • 27 - The Limits to Mankind
- • 25 - Revisiting the Physical Risks of Debt
- • 22 - General Thoughts about Luck
- • 18 - Spain, Land of Magical Financial Realism
- • 09 - Money in Politics
- • 06 - Learning to Think in Multiple Scales
- • 02 - Disaster Capital Hits Europe
- ► March (14)
- • 29 - The Nature of Tipping Points
- • 28 - The Death of the Entertainment Industry
- • 27 - The Shock Doctrine has come to New Zealand
- • 24 - Becoming the Bank
- • 22 - To Where Our Oppositional Culture Takes Us
- • 20 - You wouldn't know it to look at it
- • 16 - An Introduction to Agent-Based Modeling
- • 13 - Juking the Stats: Our Culture of Manipulation
- • 11 - Get Ready to be Disappointed With "Sterilized" QE3
- • 09 - Revisiting the Financial Fingerprint of Instability
- • 06 - Why Liquidity is No Longer Enough
- • 05 - Their Assumptions are Getting Very Ugly
- • 03 - The Original Street Artist
- • 01 - Modern Myths that Destroy Humanity
- ► February (9)
- • 28 - When the Deflation Tsunami Hits, Losing the Least is a Winner
- • 26 - Our Depraved Future of Debt Slavery (Part III)
- • 24 - Our Depraved Future of Debt Slavery (Part II)
- • 22 - Our Depraved Future of Debt Slavery (Part I)
- • 20 - The Torture of the European Periphery
- • 18 - We're Still Sinking With the Titanic
- • 15 - Political Theater Will Kill the Status Quo
- • 13 - Die Wahrheit Macht Frei
- • 04 - Who Killed the Money Printer?
- ► January (6)
- ► 2011 (4)
Stoneleigh Occupies:
Nicole Foss Lecture Tour:
AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND March-June 2013
New Zealand May/June Dates still available
May 24 Waiheke Island
Palm Beach Hall 6.30pm
May 27 Auckland
The Hillsborough Room, The Fickling Centre (Mount Eden) 7.30pm
May 29 Tauranga
Baycourt 7.15pm
May 30 Wellington
Sustainability Trust, 2 Forresters Lane 5.30pm
June 1 Otaki
Clean Technology Centre 47 Miro St. 1.30pm
US Fall 2013 - Dates Available
Request Lectures: StoneleighTravels •at• gmail •dot• com.
| Get free email alerts for The Automatic Earth |
| Email: |
Link Vault
- Sharon Astyk
- Steve Keen
- Aaron Krowne
- Patrick Killelea
- Mish Shedlock
- John Rubino
- Max Keiser
- Yves Smith
- Jim Fitch
- Jim Kunstler
- Tyler Durden
- Jay Hanson
- Michael Panzner
- LEAP 2020
- Jesse's Café
- Michael Snyder
- Doug Short
- Cornucopia?
- Keith Hazelton
- Steve Waldman
- Dave Cohen
- Kalpa
- John Hussman
- Chris Martenson
- Biodiversecity
- Russ Winter
- Damien Hoffman
- Thomas Palley
- Ed Harrison
- George Ure
- Karl Denninger
- Carolyn Baker
- Aki Järvinen
- Cercle de Gindou
- Suomi Watches
- Toni Straka
- Albert Bates
- Hellasious
- CR & Tanta
- Lee Adler
- Prudent Bear
- Angry Bear
- Shorpy
- Agora Rude
- Bill Bonner
- Greenpa
- Greyzone







