Spiegel bombshell: The IMF plans to dump Greece
German magazine Der Spiegel dropped a bombshell this morning in an article which is for now available only in German. My German is quite decent. Here's the original and my translation:
IWF will Griechenland-Hilfen stoppen (IMF wants to stop Greek help)
Griechenland könnte schon im September pleitegehen. Der Internationale Währungsfonds hat nach Informationen des SPIEGEL der Brüsseler EU-Spitze signalisiert, dass er sich nicht an weiteren Hilfen für das Land beteiligen werde.
Greece could go bankrupt as early as September. Spiegel has obtained information that the IMF told the Brussels leadership it would not make more money available for help to Greece. [..]
Derzeit untersucht die Troika aus EU-Kommission, Europäischer Zentralbank (EZB) und Internationalem Währungsfonds (IWF), wie weit das Land seinen Reformverpflichtungen nachkommt. So viel steht schon jetzt fest: Die Regierung in Athen kann den Schuldenstand des Landes nicht wie vereinbart bis zum Jahr 2020 auf rund 120 Prozent der Jahreswirtschaftsleistung drücken.
At the moment the EC, ECB and IMF troika is investigating to what extent the country lives up to its reform obligations. This much is already certain: the government in Athens will not be able to bring down its debt load to about 120% of GDP by 2020.
Erhält das Land mehr Zeit, seine Ziele zu erfüllen, würde das nach Schätzungen der Troika zusätzliche Hilfen zwischen zehn und 50 Milliarden Euro erfordern. Viele Regierungen der Euro-Zone sind jedoch nicht mehr bereit, neue Griechenland-Lasten zu schultern. Zudem haben Länder wie die Niederlande und Finnland ihre Hilfen daran gekoppelt, dass sich der IWF beteiligt.
The troika estimates that giving Greece more time to achieve its goals would cost an additional €10 billion-€50 billion. Many eurozone governments, however, are no longer prepared to shoulder new Greek burdens. Moreover, countries like Holland and Finland have made their help contingent on IMF participation.
Das Risiko eines Austritts Griechenlands aus der Währungsunion wird mittlerweile in den Ländern der Euro-Zone für beherrschbar gehalten. Um die Ansteckungsgefahr für andere Länder zu begrenzen, wollen die Regierungen den Start des neuen Rettungsschirms ESM abwarten. Dieser kann jedoch nicht vor dem Urteil des Bundesverfassungsgerichts am 12. September in Kraft treten.
Meanwhile, a Greek departure from the eurozone is seen as manageable in eurozone countries. In order to limit the risk of contagion, governments want to wait for the new ESM emergency fund to start. Which can't happen before the German constitutional court delivers its verdict on September 12.
Um Griechenland über den Monat August zu helfen, könnte ein letztes Mal die EZB einspringen. Eigentlich müsste Athen am 20. August 3,8 Milliarden Euro an die Zentralbank zurückzahlen. Die Lösung könnte eine Art Kreislaufgeschäft sein, bei dem die Euro-Notenbanken selbst die Kreditablösung übernehmen: Der griechische Staat könnte neue kurzfristige Staatsanleihen herausgeben - sogenannte T-Bills - und sie an die griechischen Banken verkaufen. Diese wiederum reichen die Papiere bei der griechischen Notenbank ein - als Sicherheit für neue Nothilfen.
To help Greece survive the month of August, the ECB could jump in one last time. Athens must pay back €3.8 billion by August 20. The solution could be a kind of circular deal, in which eurozone central banks take over credit payments. Greece could issue new short-term bonds and sell them to Greek banks. They could then submit them to the Greek central bank as collateral for new emergency help.
It’ll be a lot of fun seeing the IMF, and European leaders, try to deny the article and its implications. From what I understand, they want to wait until the ESM is effective, and then dump Greece. The article may trump any such intentions. Some things only work in secret, and once Pandora's box is open, they no longer do.
I still think it would be curious that the ESM, supposedly good for €700 billion or so (if not more), would be used to "save" Spain and perhaps Italy, but not Greece. For countries like Portugal and Ireland, dumping Greece would mean they need to get very nervous about being the next one thrown under the wheels and off the back end of the wagon.
The message might become that any and all reform and austerity measures demanded must be adhered to very strictly or else. Politicians in these other "borderline" countries might go along with it all, but will the people? Do the Irish really enjoy the idea of being strangled into submission? And will Spain really be "saved" once real debt numbers are known?
It seems far more likely that getting rid of Greece will be merely the first step in dissolving the entire eurozone. The rest of the dominos can then fall in rapid succession.
PS: For more entertainment, here's a link to a letter by Peter Doyle, former division chief in the IMF's European Department, who, upon resigning, shared a few of his thoughts on the fund: "After twenty years of service, I am ashamed to have had any association with the Fund at all..."
Doyle accuses the IMF of a terrible mishandling of the European crisis, something he says is due to the fact that information received well in advance about the European crisis was internally suppressed. He places responsibility for the suffering of the Greek people squarely on the shoulders of the IMF and the "fundamental illegitimacy" of the selection process inherent in its hierarchical structure, which has led to the appointments of people such as Dominique Strauss-Kahn and Christine Lagarde.
UPDATE: Dutch political parties have demanded their government clarify the Spiegel article. They suggest parliament break off their holiday recess and convene next week to discuss the matter at hand. The government wants to wait for a troika report.
UPDATE 2: Bloomberg reports that German Economy Minister and Vice Chancellor Philipp Roesler says he's "very skeptical" that European leaders will be able to rescue Greece and the prospect of the country’s exit from the euro had "lost its terror."
Roesler says "Greece is unlikely to be able to meet its obligations under a euro-area bailout program as its international creditors hold talks this week in Athens. Should that be the case, the country won’t receive more bailout payments".
"What’s emerging is that Greece will probably not be able to fulfil its conditions. What is clear: if Greece doesn’t fulfil those conditions, then there can be no more payments."
From the Keybank Deposit Account Agreement and Funds Availability Policy
Checking Accounts. Checking Accounts consist of two subaccounts: a checking subaccount and a savings subaccount. All of the provisions of this Agreement and all of the terms and conditions governing your Checking Account apply to the Account as a whole without reference to the subaccounts, except as provided in this section. If your Checking Account earns interest, the interest rate will apply to both subaccounts. If your Checking Account does not earn interest, no interest will be paid on either subaccount.
We transfer funds in the checking subaccount to the savings subaccount when such funds are not needed to pay checks, debits, or other items drawn on your Checking Account. We may sweep the entire balance into the savings subaccount during the weekend when no items will post to your Checking Account. We may also establish a threshold balance in the checking subaccount and transfer any funds in excess of the threshold balance to the savings subaccount. All checks, debits and other items will be paid from balances credited to the checking subaccount. All deposits and credits will be credited to the checking subaccount. We periodically reallocate the balances between the subaccounts to make funds available in the checking subaccount to pay checks, debits and other items drawn on your Checking Account. These transfers will be the only transactions on the savings subaccount. We will not allow more than six transfers per monthly statement period from the savings subaccount and, if a sixth such transfer is made, all funds in the savings subaccount will be transferred to the checking subaccount for the remainder of the monthly statement period.
In accordance with federal law, we reserve the right to require seven days' prior notice of any transfer from a Money Market Checking Account (Negotiable Order of Withdrawal). Subject to these limitations, you can make an unlimited number of withdrawals in person or by check and arrange for preauthorized transfers and withdrawals, including telephone transfers.
Savings Accounts
...
We reserve the right to require seven (7) days prior written notice of any intended withdrawal (whether made in person, by check, by telephone or by preauthorized transfer or withdrawal).
Money market checking accounts are...more dangerous than bank checking accounts in times of trouble.
MM funds are basically very short term bond mutual funds in disguise. They hold short term debt; bonds due to expire in 30 days, loans to banks (called "repos") that pay off within 30-90 days, 4 week treasurys, etc.
Now then, when there's no stress, these guys pay the interest they've received (less "administrative fees") every month or so. And you can redeem your funds and you get $1 back for every "share" you own. But they have counterparty risk.
Let's say some of that short term debt your fund owns is in a company that goes bankrupt by surprise. Let's call it "Lehman Brothers". Bankruptcy takes a while to process, and the fund likely won't get back 100 cents on the dollar. If the fund owns a lot of those repos - say 5% or so of the funds assets are in LEH repos - then that 5% is locked up for a long time.
So basically, a money market fund is really just a bond mutual fund; if one of the underlying bonds defaults, the NAV of the money market fund will likely drop below $1.00.
Its easy to see what's in your money market fund, just go to google finance and type in the ticker symbol. Take the Fidelity Cash Reserves fund as an example:
www.google.com/finance?q=FDRXX
Here are your top 10 counterparties:
U.S. Treasury Notes 0.10-0.19%
In A Joint Trading Account At 0.19% Dated 2/29/12
U.S. Treasury Bills 0.10-0.15%
National Australia Bank Ltd. 0.40-0.52%
Rabobank Nederland New York Branch 0.31-0.55%
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. 0.40-0.55%
Citigroup Funding, Inc. 0.48-0.50%
Straight-A Fdg Llc Ser 2 Iam Coml Paper
Bank Of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ufj Ltd. 0.40-0.50%
Bank Of Nova Scotia 0.46-0.65%
So a Rabobank Repo (NYC branch) is 3.76% of holdings. Let's say Rabo goes tits up. 3.76% of the fund is locked up in bankruptcy. Once people figure this out, they will start withdrawing their money from the fund. Enough withdrawls, and the fund decides it has to stop redemptions in order to distribute the losses fairly. Your money is stuck.
This actually happened to the Reserve Fund during the 2008 crash. They owned a bunch of Lehman Repos, and ended up dropping to NAV 0.97 when Lehman went under. They stopped processing redemptions. It took a year for most of the funds to be returned. Read about this here:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_Primary_Fund
Read this article on money market funds, especially the section on "breaking the buck."
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_market_fund
Last point: there's no FDIC insurance in a money market fund. The safest 100% liquid DIGITAL place to store your money is a demand deposit account - a checking account. They're supposed to have enough reserves on hand to give you your money back, and its FDIC insured (theoretically backed by the full faith & credit of the US Treasury if the FDIC fund runs dry).
If you want to avoid the FDIC middleman and don't mind having your money tied up for a while, use Treasury Direct and buy yourself 3 month T-bills and automatically roll them. You can always sell them (I think it costs $50 flat fee) if you need the cash immediately. Funds are ACH-transferred (2-day delay) into and out of your checking account.
Money market funds, while they were (kind of) rescued by the Fed last time around, are lower on the food chain than demand deposits. Your money could be locked up for a long time if your fund breaks the buck.
My opinion: DDA's will be the last "liquid" vehicle thrown under the bus in a serious crisis.
Bottom line: given current interest rates, there is zero reason to have money in a money market account. In my opinion, either use a real checking account, or Treasury Direct.
What if the checking account is a money market type of checking, paying only a few cents interest a month?
Does anyone know if a MM type checking is also a demand account that one can demand their money to be withdrawn?
Yes, you got it - consumers deliberately refusing to consume. That's what I meant. Consumers have a great deal of power, should they choose to use it. And you are right, that's not what is happening today. People are just acting in various stages of panic.
otto-matic -
If you carefully read your savings account agreement with your banking institution, you will note that the bank has reserved the right to not give you your money back for anywhere from 30-90 days under some circumstances. I think mine [US Bank] said 60 days, if memory serves. No need for Fed involvement at all.
From all I've been able to find out, checking accounts are demand deposits (as in I'm demanding my money, so give it to me) and for that guarantee of instant gratification you don't earn any interest.
I fully expect the banksters to limit withdrawals for yet another reason...so that the depositors don't go after the banksters with guns and ropes.
The people believe their money is insured at the banks, and will expect to withdraw it, at some point. If told there is a global crisis, a lot of people will take whatever they can get, and wait patiently until the next withdrawal amount.
Since there is no money left in any of the TBTF banks, it's a NO RESERVE banking model at this point, what is there to have a run on?
Well, isn't that the point the Sheeple should never be allowed to realize?
Their 'money', savings, pensions are all gone, gone, gone.
Why not float a faux issue to distract the public's tiny rodent like attention span.
Launch an election year fake issue, 'capital controls', should we or shouldn't we. Demos & Repugs, start your engines.
When the real issue is, does your money even exist in the bank in the first place?
Setting the precedent that banks can dole out your savings to you at their discretion to safe guard 'national financial security' is important to kicking the can down the road, and further strengthens and validates the two-bit fascist banana kleptocracy Ah-merika has become.
Restricting bank withdrawals to a small manageable weekly amount over the entire depositor base of a TBTF effectively HIDES the fact the banks are broke in the broader sense from Duh-public. Welcome to Skinner Box finance for rodent citizen/consumers.
Almost everyone follow the meltdown for the past four years has been surprised at TPTB pulling one can kicking rabbit out of their asshat after another.
The willfully ignorant uber self-possessed assclowns of the U.S. still have no clue their banks are COMPLETELY broke.
So postpone the day of reckoning for the Rubes, YET AGAIN, with the mis-direction of 'capital controls'.
As long as an amount close enough to meet their weekly bills is forth coming, ALL IS WELL, nothing to see here.
It's all Good in the land of the brave and home of the free.
"You even posted some interesting graphs with GDP numbers falling off steep cliffs in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters of 2010.
How did that turn out? It seemed right as rain to make such claims back then. All the data supported those notions....did it not?
And yet, history proves otherwise
GDP
2nd Quarter 2010 = 3.8%
3rd Quarter 2010 = 2.5%
4th Quarter 2010 = 2.3%"
Actually, since TPTB are under counting inflation by 5%/yr or more, we really are setting ourselves up for a hyperinflationary crash, and the economy is contracting in real terms. Not sure about 2010, but I think the buck comes unglued in 2013.
If you do your own grocery shopping, you can clearly see that inflation is really taking off, and the great 2012 drought hasn't even figured into retail prices yet. We'll probably have 20% inflation in 2013, and maybe 5% nominal growth, perhaps 10%. But even with the latter, that is a real contraction of 10% in the economy.
I think it all depends on how much control you think the Eurocrats and their corporate masters have here, and what kind of plans they come up with. We are all well aware of the phrase "crisis should be used as an opportunity", and we have seen how that has played out for the last few years. If letting Greece default at the "right time", i.e. after they pillaged and looted the country, was always a part of their plan, then it's hard to see how that is a positive thing for the Greeks or anyone else.
I do see your point, though, and it is one I have also made in slightly different ways. There are ways in which the natural progression of things here are opening up opportunities for the people, either through financial or social or political channels. But, ultimately, I think it will be the mass strikes and civil disobedience that produces the best results for them, rather than acute, panicked episodes of financial breakdown that are largely out of their control and will catch a lot of people off guard. You are right that consumers refusing to consume is a great way to threaten the system, but that's not really what's happening over there. It's consumers/depositors scrambling to salvage what little savings they have left before it vanishes into a black hole.
Thanks for your kind words too!
I agree the planning for bank runs in the periphery have most likely been finely tuned over the past two years. However, executing these contingency plans are not "fantastic outcomes" for the system. They're simply stop-loss measures - can-kicking measures, if you will, with an uncertain ability to actually contain the damage. And even if they do contain it to just one country, its not a victory by any stretch of the imagination. A number of banks will have failed across the zone, leverage levels will have increased, and the "pretend" system will be that much more fragile. Perhaps - just perhaps - they'll be forced to consider actually resolving some of these banks. I think that would be a good thing.
As evidence: during the Irish banking troubles, no losses were permitted for bank bondholders. Now in Spain, the ECB is openly talking about senior debt being given a haircut. The money just isn't there for holding the creditors harmless any longer. That has to be progress! Maybe its not the hoped-for endpoint, but its progress!
My thesis was, people's collective action has real power in the banking system. As a thought experiment - if a Spanish bank run results in a eurozone exit, and that results in a euro banking crisis, thats a bit more effective of a "protest action" than a march, or an election where a new batch of cronies get put in power and execute the same policies where the usual bankers keep their jobs after the usual taxpayer funded bailouts are paid for with austerity.
Imagine if everyone on a protest march were to instead all walk quietly to their bank branches and each withdraw 1000E in cash - more effective? I think so. Just having the lines outside the banks would strike terror into the hearts of the bankers.
What happens after, well that's always the question. My only point was to say people had the power to bring about change outside the usual electoral or violent protest options. It sure beats throwing rocks at policemen. Talk about bringing a knife to a gunfight! Fight the enemy on ground where you are strong, not on ground where he is. (Not suggesting you were advocating the contrary, I was just musing to myself)
Are 'capital controls' a moot point then if there is no there=there?
This Is The Government: Your Legal Right To Redeem Your Money Market Account Has Been Denied - sequel
www.zerohedge.com/news/government-your-legal-right-redeem-your-money-market-account-has-been-denied-sequel
And this:
"...The New York Fed has introduced a framework to give banks the right to suspend account withdrawals at will to defend against financial panic.
...central planners have proposed new contigency plans to prevent the Great Depression style bank runs that are hitting Europe from spreading to America.
Their solution is the creation of a framework that consists of “capital controls” which allow financial institutions that find themselves in hot water to limit or outright suspend customer account withdrawals..."
blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2012/07/20/big-fail-fed-proposal-banks-seize-money-149701/
I think we should also remember that banks runs in Greece, or the EZ periphery in general, are perhaps the most well planned for contingency in this whole global financial mess. It had to happen eventually, and, now, it very much seems like the relevant central authorities want it to happen, because the Greek economy has become such dead weight (and Spain is catching up quickly). No doubt there will be unintended consequences, but I'm sure the banksters and their cronies have a million and one different measures in place to deal with it, ranging from media propaganda to capital controls and police/military repression. As always, the masses will take the brunt of the blow for now.
davefairtex wrote:
Asimov had a character of his use a line I really liked: "violence is the last refuge of the incompetent." I feel that is true for speech as well as actions. Like most such things, perhaps its not a rule to be slavishly followed, but an ideal to strive for.
I've been on quite a few forums where the "regulars" acted exactly opposite of that principle, and that's why I'm glad we have regulars like you here on TAE. Other than few obvious trolls, people are open-minded and civil and strive for understanding, rather than some ratification of their online ego/pride.
Thanks for the kind words! I really prefer talking things out to see where the truth really lies. Light vs heat and all that. But sometimes I can't resist the snarky line too. Every now and then. I definitely understand the impulse.
Asimov had a character of his use a line I really liked: "violence is the last refuge of the incompetent." I feel that is true for speech as well as actions. Like most such things, perhaps its not a rule to be slavishly followed, but an ideal to strive for.
You make a great point - only a small fraction of deposits will be successfully withdrawn, the ATMs will be emptied, and then the bank holiday declared. All the people can't really withdraw all their deposits. I stand corrected.
But by trying to withdraw their cash, "the people" through their action will cause to be revealed the system's current condition. The bank holiday is usually the last step prior to some major change event occurring - currency devaluation, establishment of deposit insurance, gold seizure, financial repression, etc.
Until the bank run, the system can engage in "pretend" strategies centered around retaining popular confidence on all those "excess claims to real wealth" as long as nobody challenges it. However the bank holiday is the last refuge of the system. Reopening the banks absent major change will simply lead to a continuing bank run, because nothing has been done to restore confidence in the system.
That's my sense anyway.
Hmm after re-reading what I wrote, I realize I'm NOT saying that the people have some magical power to fix everything. Just that they can, through their actions, expose the latent fraud in the system without the fuss of elections, investigations, and so on. After all, that's how Madoff failed; withdrawls. Not the SEC, or the DOJ. It was normal people withdrawing money. Ponzi systems can't handle too many withdrawls or else they implode.
Often just writing this stuff down helps clarify it in my own mind. That's why I like the process.
There is no such power, since there are no deposits to be withdrawn. The threat of a bank run equals a bank holiday. Doors closed, ATMs empty.
"I wouldn't call that an ad hominem Dave, and I'm sorry you make it that."
That's great, I guess I made a mistake. I'm glad you weren't intending on insulting me personally immediately prior to countering what I had to say. I was surprised you were apparently engaging in such tactics because you are a very articulate and intelligent person and appear fully capable of defending your point of view on its merits alone.
I did have a reason for my faulty assumption though. Google the phrase "get a life urban dictionary" and you will see why I assumed you were engaging in an ad hominem attack. Given what you just said, however, I know now that you didn't mean it in the way its commonly used.
Here's the top entry in the list.
www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Get%20a%20Life
"It's simply very much not true that the public have the ultimate choice, and we shouldn't be suggesting that here."
Perhaps we just have a misunderstanding here. For me this depends on the situation. If a popular run on the national banks of any of these countries occurs, I feel it is likely to be a decisive action forcing the hand of all the parties involved. This is the very thing the monetary authorities are the most frightened of. It is one of the founding principles of central banking - avoid bank runs.
When I was talking about the people having power, it was this to which I was referring - the power to withdraw their deposits from the system. If you disagree, I'd like to know more detail about why this is, since I often enjoy reading your perspective on these things.
Since + 60% of N. Americans are one paycheck away from telling their lenders that they can no longer keep sending them money so that they can continue to enjoy their unproductive lifestyle,
Since the majority of the club med people are in the process of letting the banks eat their bad loans
Since a 12% drop in the Spanish market must really really hurt those who were leveraged since they must take that 12% drop a multiple of time
Losing the income to put food on the table is disastrous but the mental shock of losing your "wealth and power" is probably too much for the pampered families of the “rentiers class”to face reality. (Few people have humility)
It therefore, appears that the truth is coming out ...
"You cannot squeeze blood out of a stone"
Soon .... stones will be discovered to exist outside of club med.
I hail this.
I, simply, can't wait to see this Imperial project find its place in "garbage of history".
I once said people would be lucky to recognize their hometown by Christmas. That doesn't mean I'm wrong when some still do, it means they're lucky. That's what I literally wrote.
That's not a cop out, we simply choose our words carefully, because we know predicting fixed dates for events to happen is useless.
If people take these things to be fixed predictions regardless, they simply don't read our words as carefully as we choose them. And that is important. I write what I write, not what any number of people think I do, who might all have different interpretations depending on the care they read with.
We point out trends and risks, not dates.
The CMI series I did with Doug Short and Rick Davis showed through time that the data were not as strong as we at one point all thought they MIGHT be. That caveat was always very much a part of that series. Which then fizzled out. I'm sure most people have understood that. Sorry to see you did not.
I have even seen a photo that proves he might be an ogre in human disguise!But if you want to read another curmudgeon who regularly spanks his readers, check out Garth Turner's Greater Fool blog--another Canadian writer who has been promising his countrymen a rather serious real estate correction for several years, despite much criticism. Oh, and given some recent Canadian market data, it seems Turner is finally being proven very right (unfortunately, Turner is also a "financial advisor" who doesn't think the economic system itself can collapse despite yet another major nation-wide real estate meltdown). Now, I only refer you to the unctuous Turner for his bracingly refreshing and downright stinging barbs...a few folks out there should man-up just as you have done dave and take the barbs for what they are--a wake-up call which some need more than others!
Agree wholeheartedly with your article on capital controls. Tied together with the one about 21 trillion offshore, one can imagine all that paper sloshing around the globe trying desperately to find a safe place to hide before the gate comes down.
It was really good to re-read your article. I'm getting a more complete internal picture of a system of extreme financial repression put in place as a result of a massive loss of confidence. I should re-read it every month as events develop!
Let's try and get a life, shall we? As long as the public believes that sort of baloney, grand theft auto can continue.
Hmm, that's the ever popular argumentum ad hominem. Because you claim I have no life, whatever you say next is therefore proven true. Hard to argue with that one. Futile even.
Well I stand by what I said. Your original post was awesome.
Is 2 years short-term, medium-term, or long term?
It would help if one defined one's terms. Wiggle room is useful, but not terribly honest.
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