TOPIC: Einstein's Definition of Gluttony
Einstein's Definition of Gluttony 9 months, 4 weeks ago #4501
We all know Einstein's definition of Insanity - "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result each time". And more than a few people have applied that to the Eurozone sovereign debt debacle. Case in point - Greece and Spain. It didn't take more than a single day for the EU officials visiting Greece to figured out that the Troika's grand bailout, austerity and debt restructuring plans will fail even worse and even quicker than expected.
Reuters is reporting that, only a few months after the PSI debt restructuring in February, it has become clear that Greece's public creditors (ECB, EZ governments) will have to take haircuts on their bonds as well, which is something they are definitely not willing to do. The officials that are talking to Reuters say that the country is going to be "HUGELY off track" of prior estimates in debt sustainability reports.
Instead of the economy contracting by only 5% this year, it will contract by at least 7%, which will obviously make its debt to GDP ratio far worse than expected. Here is Luke Baker reporting for Reuters:
And, as we learned from the Der Spiegel story broken by Ilargi on Sunday - The IMF plans to dump Greece, the IMF may literally BAIL OUT (as opposed to bailout) of any further supportive measures for Greece, which would leave the task entirely on the shoulders of the ECB and EZ national governments. Without international support, it is impossible for the Eurozone to continue carrying the dead weight of Greece's rapidly deteriorating economy.
Basically, everyone has given up on Greece, and for good reason. The German economy minister, Philip Rosler, recently stated that he was "very skeptical" that European leaders will be able to rescue Greece. The fact is that there is really very little for the European core to gain from providing more official assistance to Greece, compared to what it will lose. With Moody's downgrade of sovereign ratings outlooks in Germany and the Netherlands, core countries are now experiencing the unacceptable price they must pay to keep the Eurozone periphery intact.
Yet, everyone is already talking about the Troika doing the exact same thing with Spain - i.e. a cycle of "temporary liquidity assistance", permanent bailout mechanisms and hard-hitting austerity for a rapidly contracting economy. As most of the autonomous regions of Spain are requesting financial assistance from the Spanish government, the Spanish government will be forced to ask for assistance from the ECB, EZ governments and then the international community. From El Economista (translated by Google):
It is very likely that the EZ governments and the IMF relent and shovel aid towards Spain, its regions and its banks for some time, as they find even more ways to have taxpayer funds looted and their own credibility smashed. How could any of these people possibly be that INSANE, you ask? Well, they're not really... they're just greedy as all get out. The people calling the shots at these institutions only know one thing - there is money, assets and resources to be taken from the populations of the EZ periphery before the entire experiment falls apart.
Perhaps some of the lower-level Knights, Bishops and Pawns are expecting different results than Greece, but I highly doubt any of the Kings or Queens are. They are simply following Einstein’s definition of Gluttony - "pursuing the same selfish desires over and over again, and expecting the same result each time". The result of these policies is that the elites will be able to kick the can down the road for at least one more day, create that one extra bond, siphon off that one extra euro, foreclose on that one extra asset and deceive that one extra politician.
It is a corrupt group of minority elites that is gorging itself on the money and the lives and the spirits of the majority, like a surprisingly skinny kid in a hot dog eating contest. Eventually, people living in France, Germany, the Netherlands, the U.K., the U.S., etc. will find themselves owning a bunch of Spanish bonds through the ECB, IMF and ESM. The Spanish economy will continue to contract, and they will be told that they need to take large haircuts on the value of those bonds if they want to keep Spain in the Eurozone. A very similar path will play out for Italy as well.
That is, of course, if the taxpaying citizens and financial investors choose to play along in the meantime. So far, most of these people have also followed their selfish impulses and clung to the European ideal of lasting stability and economic prosperity, even as their savings and investments quickly rot from the inside out, proving that such an ideal will never come to fruition. As long as they continue to care more about their bank and brokerage statements than the state of their communities and societies, though, the Gluttonous collapse cycle will continue.
Einstein's Definition of Gluttony 9 months, 3 weeks ago #4510
There is an interesting formula from John Gall's "Systems Bible":
"...where Ro equals the amount of Reality which fails to reach the Control Unit, and Rs equals the total amount of Reality presented to the system. The fraction Ro/Rs varies from zero (full awareness of outside reality) to unity (no reality getting through)." (From: "The Systems Bible: the Beginners Guide to systems large and small", John Gall, 2006. P.46-7)
While it is all too tempting to want to blame people, from a purely systems perspective it can be seen that in the case of the EU banking/debt problem, and more generally the Global banking/debt problem that we reached "unity" some while ago (i.e. Ro/Rs = 1) Again as Dr Gall points out, NO amount of tweaking ANY system will make that system perform its assigned task any better, but will instead inevitably make the situation far worse for the performance of that task. The system meanwhile just grows and grows useing and consuming more and more resources; in respect of its own internal 'reality' its doing just fine!
Last Edit: 9 months, 3 weeks ago by gurusid.
Re: Einstein's Definition of Gluttony 9 months, 3 weeks ago #4514
Great information, i must read more on this. It is something i have deeply suspected for a while, though within that system there are always agents or mutations at work, that allow for critical system change or adaptation to a newly imposed reality or limits to the reality threshold. Gee i just realised you can sound like a wanker when you talk like i just did. I don't care though.
Thanks again for Mr. Gall's concepts
Einstein's Definition of Gluttony 9 months, 3 weeks ago #4516
Hi Dig Dirt,
You're welcome. Of course the other salient point that Dr Gall makes is that systems attract systems people. And I think we have all met one or two or more of those in our time, you know the guys who just have to do it by the book - jobs worths etc. And if you haven't... there is the possibility that you are one of THEM!
There are a few copies of Dr Galls work going back over the years, I think he first published in the seventies, and has developed his 'theory' over the decades. While somewhat tongue in cheek, his ideas carry a profound wisdom of all things systemic involving humans.
Here's a typical example:
"Couple refuse to rip up ILLEGAL vegetable garden after demands from draconian council"
PUBLISHED: 14:37, 23 July 2012 | UPDATED: 18:31, 23 July 2012
"As the world battles an obesity epidemic, one Canadian council is going around ripping up thriving vegetable gardens."
I mean you just can't make this stuff up...
See their video here:
(Btw - i am pretty sure its 'Dr' Gall, not 'Mr' as i had first thought)
Last Edit: 9 months, 3 weeks ago by gurusid.
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