Travel Notice Ilargi

Have a safe and pleasant trip!

@ Ilargi,

If you’re meeting up with Nicole, perhaps you two can discuss Martin Armstrong’s post from today re: stock market crashes (or lack thereof):

Ratio Analysis & the Other Side of 2015.75

“Here is the Dow in dollars and Swiss francs currently. There is no indication that we are looking at a major high where the Dow will collapse. If we make a high with the ECM, sure there will be a correction. But is this the end of the bull market? We have a lot more problems the other side of 2015.75 than traditional fundamental anysis [sic] can ever hope to even guess … All of these scenarios are just opinion. They have a common base expectation that a Great Depression can play out only in one way – the stock market must crash. They totally fail to grasp the issue at hand. We are in a Sovereign Debt Crisis – not some speculative bubble in stocks. This crowd has this scenario stuck in their mind and no matter what evidence you show them, they remain fixed in their expectations … They constantly preach the crash as soon as interest rates rise. They have never bothered to verify anything in their theories. The stock market rallied from 1927 into 1929 and interest rates doubled. They still preach the standard plain vanilla that if interest rates rise stocks must fall. They are just hopeless lost in their mind of fixed one-dimensional relationships.”

While I doubt Mr. Armstrong is speaking about TAE’s narrative specifically, I do think TAE heavily favours a potential stock market crash in the foreseeable future. And while I still respect the concept of “better to be 6 months too soon than 6 minutes too late” in terms of protecting my capital, I would appreciate a robust discussion / analysis of Armstrong vs. TAE’s views on stock and bond market collapses and how they will play out.

Cheers,
GBV

Bon voyage, Ilargi. Do you have any dates confirmed for New Zealand, yet?

Hi Ilargi,

If you want to meet up for a drink in Melbourne, give me a call on 0432513062 or drop me a line at anassim at gmail dot com

Cheers,

Alfred