PCR Tests and COVID Vaccines are Useless
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John French Sloan McSorley’s Bar 1912 If you’re enthusiastic about the impact of the newly arriving COVID vaccines, and you expect to “g
[See the full post at: PCR Tests and COVID Vaccines are Useless]“Are our politicians and “experts” complicit or are they simply incompetent?”
It’s a mixture of both. In the realm of “medical science” this type of nonsense has been taking place for decades. We typically don’t notice because it happens so slowly our attention wanders and we simply forget about it (the goal, of course). In the case of COVID the process has accelerated to warp speed, the topic is headline news every day, and we can actually SEE it happening.
Those of us who participate in the modern healthcare system at the absolute minimum possible are not terribly surprised, much less shocked by this.
This is a very disappointing and misleading article. The Oxford study correlated the number of PCR cycles and the ability to grow virus on culture. At a cycle threshold of 35 or higher, viral cultures were almost uniformly negative, so the chances of someone being able to infect others was less than 3%. IT DOES NOT MEAN THEY NEVER HAD COVID-19. It is well known that patients can shed viral fragments for weeks after infection. In the early days of the epidemic, repeat negative PCRs were required to leave the hospital, return to work, etc, but no one does that anymore.
I used to enjoy reading Automatic Earth for its insightful economic articles. It’s degenerated into articles like this and US election conspiracy theories.
Benjamin Graham, MDAll hail to ye, oh modern-day Torquemadas!!
All those filthy, heretic scumbags – the anti-vaxxers and other generic conspirators – must be persecuted and publicly shamed and, if all else fails, put them to the stake and let ’em burn, burn, burn! In your family, your building, your neighbourhood, your town, your country, the world over!
Better start believing what the “authorities” – government, scientists (aka “the new priesthood”) – say lest the “authorities” figure out that the Inquisition wasn’t such a bad idea after all.
Go grab a copy of “A Canticle for Leibowitz” and learn something, will you?
@McSorley’s!
Fine painting! In the 60’s, I used to have two beers (they were a nickel cheaper if you bought two drafts at a time) at McSorleys when I visited friends in the city. It is in the east village (NY) and was a hangout for artists, mavericks, and assorted old timers. It looked just as it does in the painting, except grubbier. Directly behind the bar there was a huge photo of Babe Ruth’s last at bat. He had a pot belly and was leaning on his bat. Yankee Stadium stretched out before him, filled with fans.
Twenty some years on, I was in the city with two dentist friends for the national dentists convention. We were demonstrating a software system I developed. I hadn’t been in McSorley’s since the sixties. “We’ve got to go to McSorley’s …” I raved about the old days and the classic photo.
When we got there, it was the same as always, but the picture was gone. Very sad. We ordered our beers and looked around. In the darkness at the far corner of the wall behind the bar, I saw a small framed picture. The Babe!
It was a wonderful moment. I have distrusted my memory ever since.It looks like COV-19 has vanquished the flu!
Canada
<i>In week 46, four laboratory detections of influenza were reported. To date this season, 19 influenza detections have been reported (Figure 2), which is significantly lower than the past six seasons where an average of 1,115 influenza detections were reported between weeks 35-46. </i>
canada public health services https://bit.ly/2Jww2Eu
USA – CDC data (scroll down) shows for week 46, 16 positive test for Influenza A, 25 for B.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2020-2021/week46.htm
Switzerland
For week 46, the number of consultations for flu per 100,000 inhabitants (aka judged to be flu) was 100 (from chart), for week 48: about 80.
swiss official stats site https://bit.ly/37tilOH – one has to download the d-base
In short, flu is no longer a meaningful official category. (Note for the first two it is no. of pos. tests which rests on no. of performed tests which may be near zero; Switz. counts differently.)
So the flu that killed lots of elderly ppl year by year – with ups and downs – has poof, vanished, just like that?
Are Docs + hospitals and such are supposed to log cases (deaths..) in favor of COV-19 (no ‘other’ causes shows spikes imho) ? Or, the flu has died out completely (due to lockdowns, distancing, etc.) Maybe Nature has acted in weird ways that we don’t understand, mmmh.
I have the blog up, but gmail won’t let me send it to my usual 180 subscribing friends.
https://www.johndayblog.com/2020/12/threats-and-rumors.htmlThis paper asserts that almost 90% of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 may be due to vitamin-D deficiency. Thanks Ilargi.
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/12/12/3642/htmTaking 5000 units per day vitamin D3 is a good baseline. If you have never taken it, then taking twice that much per day for 2 months is a good idea to get your level up into the normal range. If you weigh over 100 kg, you could even take 3 X 5000 units per day for a couple of months. It is diffused into fat. 40,000 units is equal to 1 little milligram of vitamin D. 400 units (USRDA) is indistinguishable from nothing.
SARS-CoV-2 infection begins in the nasopharynx, and most people, about 80%, especially young, healthy people, contain it there, with the innate immune system.
I’m not sure if it can/does cause fever when only in the nasopharynx. I am inclined to consider fever a sign that it has gotten into the system, like lungs, gut and bloodstream.Once the virus is in the systemic circulation it does unique things, especially where ACE-2 receptors are expressed. It binds to these (and also cholesterol receptors, but weaker), gains entry to cells and begins replicating. This virus can heavily infect cells without destroying them, very heavily and this is unusual. It also suppresses the cellular expression of marker protein that guide the immune system to destroy infected cells. HIV does this same trick.
ACE-2 receptors are expressed in respiratory mucosa and epithelium, arteries and arterioles, in the gut, and in heart muscle cells, cardiomyocytes, where there is evidence that it can induce permanent changes that make cellular contraction quite dysfunctional. These are permanent cells, like brain cells. They are not replaceable.
Some people of any age get long term fatigue, aches, weakness and shortness of breath on exertion, even after fairly mild illness. Nobody wants to be in this group. This has made me have a lower threshold for treating with antivirals.
I feel like any patient with a fever, lung or gut symptoms who wants treatment will get it prescribed from me.There has been a good case for treatment with hydroxychloroquine + zinc, but there is now a better case to treat with ivermectin, zinc and (or not) doxycycline.
Any antiviral treatment will work better to reduce morbidity when it is given sooner, reducing viral spread and systemic viral loads.I am currently treating with ivermectin at 200 micrograms per kilogram per dose (1 mg per 11# body weight) on days 1, 3, 5 and 7, but stopping if all symptoms have resolved except mild nasal symptoms like loss of smell.
There is also a good case for taking: Zinc (any form) 50 mg 3 times per day, vitamin-C 1000 mg 3 times per day, NAC 600 mg 3 times per day, higher dose vitamin-D 5000 units 3 times per day, and doxycycline 100 mg twice per day during the treatment course.
Quercetin can also be taken, at divided doses in the range of 200 mg per day to 600 mg per day. It helps zinc enter infected (and other) cells, which is also what HCQ seems to do.Only ivermectin and doxycycline are prescription drugs. The doxycycline might be considered optional at this point.
Other options are included in this medical guide to treatment with “MATH Plus” and “MASK Plus” protocols: https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_public/departments/internal_medicine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdfOh, i can’t seem to post other parts of the blog post. I’ll try little pieces.
https://www.johndayblog.com/2020/12/threats-and-rumors.htmlRT (Russian) has this story, and there are many more stories about nuts-and-bolts ballot stuffing voter fraud at the state and local levels.
Arizona State House Representative Mark Finchem said on Monday he had seen enough evidence (witnesses to “truckloads of ballots all week”) at the impromptu hearings he had chaired into allegations by President Donald Trump’s campaign team of electoral fraud, and that the Republican majority in the state legislature should not appoint electors for Democratic candidate Joe Biden.
“We are clawing our electoral college votes back, we will not release them,” Finchem said. “That’s what I’m calling our colleagues in both the House and the Senate to do, exercise our plenary authority under the U.S. Constitution.”
https://sputniknews.com/us/202012011081326182-arizona-legislator-says-state-should-deny-votes-to-biden-over-claimed-fraud/That worked. I’ll try the stuff I posted already about the weird NSA vs CIA battle.
All I could find this morning about this rumor was a 26 minute podcast talk show, which is all hearsay, and ploddingly slow, but I did other internet searches while it played. It asserts that Army Special Forces raided a CIA-held Dominion voting server in Frankfurt, Germany, killing one CIA contractor, whose death was then transposed to Somalia. Multiple Special Forces commandos died, and their deaths were transposed to a chopper crash in the Sinai. It also asserts that Gina Haspel was at the server site, was superficially wounded, was arrested and taken to Guantanamo, and has copped a plea in return for cooperating. That’s most of it. You can listen if you want. It plods. It’s the rumor.
[audio src="http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_113020_MH.mp3" /]More related rumor (Recall that General Michael Flynn was Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, not too long ago.)
For the first time since being pardoned by President Donald Trump, Gen. Michael Flynn sat down for an interview to discuss how America is going through “a crucible of history.” Joining the conversation was Gen. Thomas McInerney, who dropped the bombshell that Trump, if he is to abide by the oath he swore, has no choice but to refuse concession to Joe Biden in this fraudulent election…
According to Gen. McInerney, Barack Obama is the ringleader behind the HAMMER and Scorecard cyber weapons that were used against the United States to thwart the election against Trump. The program itself was developed by former CIA analyst Denis Montgomery.
These two and many other deep state coup coordinators also recruited the entire U.S. media, including Fox News, to participate in this attempted overthrow of the Republic and our Constitution. All of them, along with Big Tech, participated in the sham election narrative declaring Trump to be the “loser,” and Biden the “winner.”
Even though the Electoral College is schedule to meet on Dec. 14 to vote in accordance with state certifications, this is moot, according to Gen. McInerney. Trump has no obligation to leave the White House until every last fact surrounding election theft is analyzed and dealt with, including the vote count anomalies that were “caused by fraudulent electronic manipulation of targeted voting machines.”
The fact that five of the biggest battleground states all stopped counting ballots at roughly the same time on election night is also something that needs to be addressed because this is when HAMMER and Scorecard, along with Dominion Voting Systems, launched their mathematically impossibly algorithms to skew the count for Biden.
https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-12-01-trump-sworn-oath-white-house-compromised-puppet.htmlThe Digital Iron Curtain Descends, Alastair Crooke
What is a ‘digital Iron Curtain’? It is when Big Digital, as Professor Michael Rectenwald terms these western Tech Goliaths, become ‘governmentalities’, using a word originally coined by Michel Foucault to refer to the means by which the ‘governed’ (i.e. ‘we the people’) assimilate, and reflect outwardly, a mental attitude desired by the élites: “One might point to masking and social distancing as instances of what Foucault meant by his notion of governmentality”, Rectenwald suggests.
And what is that desired ‘mentality’? It is to embrace the transfiguration of American and European identity and way-of-life. The presumptive U.S. President Elect, the European élites, and top ‘woke’ élites moreover, are publicly committed to such “transformation”: “Now we take Georgia, then we change the world,” (Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader, declared, celebrating Joe Biden’s ‘victory’)…
With the advent of Silicon Valley ideology’s ubiquitous ‘reach’, the diktat can be achieved through weaponising ‘Truth’ via AI, to achieve a ‘machine learning fairness’ that reflects only the values of the coming revolution – and through AI ‘learning’ mounting that version of binary ‘truth’, up and against an adversarial ‘non-truth’ (its polar opposite). How this inter-penetration came about is through a mix of early CIA start-up funding; connections and contracts with state agencies, particularly relating to defence; and in support for propaganda campaigns in service to ‘governmentalist’ narratives.
These U.S. Tech platforms have, for some time, become effectively fused into the ‘Blue State’ – particularly in the realms of intelligence and defence – to the extent that these CEOs no longer see themselves as state ‘partners’ or contractors, but rather, as some higher élite leadership, precisely shaping and directing the future of the U.S. Their objective however, is to advance beyond the American ‘sphere’, to a notion that such an élite oligarchy eventually would be directing a future ‘planetary governance’.Ray Dalio: The United States Is At A Tipping Point That Could Lead To Revolution Or Civil War
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dalio-united-states-tipping-point-could-lead-revolution-or-civil-warThe Dark Winter story just won’t transfer at all.
https://www.johndayblog.com/2020/12/threats-and-rumors.htmlHere are the last 3 stories after Dark Winter:
US Billionaires Have Gained $1 Trillion Since The Pandemic Started
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-billionaires-have-gained-1-trillion-pandemic-startedCharles Hugh Smith has a comment which applies to that statistic.
2021 is Already Optimized for Failure
One sure way to identify a system “optimized for failure” is if all the insiders are absolutely confident the system is “optimized for my success”.
https://www.oftwominds.com/blognov20/optimized-failure11-20.htmlSamo Burja has a revised manuscript posted of his Great Founder Theory of human institutions. Institutions are how we get most big projects done, and the effective ones are designed by their founder to accomplish specific tasks, and to stay on task despite individual humans being what they are, A few of these actually manage to stay on task after the Great Founder passes away, though it is rare for that to actually persist for long.
American representative government was a really strong and sustained effort to create an enduring institution, and it’s founders had no delusions about the long term prospects of their combined efforts.Since the Flu is less infectious than Covid19, it stands to reason that measures to prevent the spread of the latter will do an even better job on the former.
McSorley’s! Indeed! When I went there in the late seventies, there were hundreds of dust-frosted turkey wishbones hanging on strings from the ceiling over the bar. The waitresses could carry at least twelve (I want to say twenty, but my corroborator is napping) mugs of beer, and the only thing to eat was a braunschweiger, onion, and mustard sandwich (which I came to love). I believe the health guys came in and made them remove the wishbones in the later eighties. McSorley’s operated throughout prohibition- or so the rumor went. It was a wonderfully raucous place with one bathroom that had a dirt floor, and the men and the women took turns going in in groups. The beer wasn’t bad, either.
Complicit. You don’t think the surveillance enthusiasts were snooping to find terrorists, do you? The real color revolution started years ago- the blackmail revolution.
I read the Corman/Drosten thing this morning, and it made me want to tear my hair out. I can’t seem to pinch myself hard enough to wake up from this nightmare. I suppose the paper will be allowed to float now, just in time for the vaccines to “work”: “we are now running 20 cycles! All negatives! See how effective the vaccine is?”
Grrr.Benjamin,
This is a very disappointing and misleading article.
Would that judgment have anything to do with:
I used to enjoy reading Automatic Earth for its insightful economic articles. It’s degenerated into articles like this and US election conspiracy theories.
I’m sorry if TAE cannot fit your assumptions of what it should do. We get that a lot. But that is sort of what it’s supposed to do: not comply with people’s assumptions. Because there are plenty other sources for that.
You talk about an Oxford study I don’t know. Does it contradict the article I quoted? Does it state that PCR tests are reliable? Is this article misleading, or are the articles I quoted doing that? Because that’s all I did here really, quote. And yeah, I do think this stuff is scary.
So, the question of whether PCR tests are reliable hinges on “reliable for what?” Are they reliable in telling us whether a person can currently infect others? No, they are not. As the Oxford study implies, potential for infectivity is inversely related to number of cycles.
But the author of your posted article says PCR tests are “useless,” and implies that they are not reliable for diagnosing Covid infection. That is simply not true. He talks about “false positives.” The failure to grow the virus on culture is not a false positive. It means the virus is dead.“Because this latest blow to PCR testing raises the probability that we are not enduring a killer virus pandemic, but a false positive pseudo-epidemic.” No person on the front lines of Covid care would possibly write such a thing. Shame!
Benjamin Graham, MDBGraham, please explain: For laymen, what we need is an Actionable test. That is, when it says yes, we have it, when it says no, we don’t. With a reasonable level of error, like <5%.
You probably mean something by it, but “fragments” mean nothing to me. To me it suggests near-total non-viable virus, that is, non-transmissible. If it’s not transmissible, no one cares. I don’t think people are testing to see if they USED to have it. I don’t think anyone cares.
So what test SHOULD they use, that has accuracy in a time frame one can act upon it? And so set national policy?
From what I’ve understood on this: and again, practically everything printed is a lie, the PCR test was based on a form the inventor said should not be used this way, for exactly the reason printed, that is, they boost the signal +35x, virtually assuring they will get a false positive out of the noise. Is this not true? Is the inventor incorrect when he publicly said this?
COVID (New translation: COVert ID Project for 2019) has also erased Heart Disease and other deaths.
Here was a good one today: the highest correlation to Covid Death was having a DNR.
A DNR is a “Do Not Resuscitate” order, and here in the States you can pretty much guarantee no one sat down, worked it out, and filed the paperwork unless they were going to die, real soon. So the ‘Rona is killing people who are mere weeks from already dead? Replacing all other causes of death? Tell me something I don’t know. How do I know? We’re claiming a pandemic that has NO ADDITIONAL DEATHS at the end of the year. Yes, early on it pulled a few forward, but now it’s no deaths. Not even among the elderly, as John Hopkins just printed.
…Unless you don’t trust John Hopkins. You Conspiracy Theory nut. Don’t you know you should “Respect my auth-or-i-tie” and “Do what you’re told”? And the WHO told you we should have no lockdowns, schools should be open, and do NOT wear a mask unless you have to be closer than 1m (3 feet) from someone. …So take it off in a car or when you’re biking for God’s sake.
I agree with Dr. D’s response to BGrahamMD, whose name sounds like some kind of 70s doctor show and raises the hackles of my suspicion. Sue me if that’s rude.
The nitpicker in me points out that having a DNR is probably more common than Dr. D says. I have had a DNR since I was about age 45 because hospitals hand out Living Wills to patients for even minor elective surgery these days. It’s boring waiting for your name to be called for surgery. People fill those forms out, and a fair number of people who do are folks who don’t want to go through what they say Granny experience when the doctors kept her alive as a living shell rather than accept that death is inevitable even if prolonged for 6 weeks.
As for complicit versus incompetent, I invoke a well-known Robert Frost poem:
Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.“No person on the front lines of Covid care would possibly write such a thing. Shame!”
Is it correct to assume you have been one of those on the famed front lines?
If so, what did you saw? People dying in the street, few inches away from the hospital doors? Young folks becoming incapacitated for life?
You know you need more than some vague fear-mongering platitudes to impress anyone around here.“Are our politicians and “experts” complicit or are they simply incompetent?”
A (very) large component is blackmail. Non-compliance with ‘the program’ means certain, public, vivid destruction. And if blackmail doesn’t stick, there’s the ‘Paul Wellstone Solution’.
@ Ilargi, @ Dr D, @ Madamski
Bravo, and thank you – this is precisely what a healthy communal response looks like to me, ie
“take your shame and stick it somewhere the sun doesn’t shine”. Show us the evidence, or f*ck right off. After everything that’s happened this year, excessive politeness is a luxury we can ill afford anymoreAnother apposite comment from Off-G, this time about Da Covid vax-seen:
> George Mc
Dec 2, 2020 6:46 PMConsidering the words of that old dab hand at propaganda, Adolph Hitler,
“Through clever and constant application of propaganda, people can be made to see paradise as hell, and also the other way round, to consider the most wretched sort of life as paradise.”
I thought that, since the covid pumping media have been manufacturing a zombie horror show out of nothing in particular, they could easily swing the other way so that if this magic vax starts killing people off, they can make out that everyone is now bouncing along with a song in their hearts etc. Somersaulting ecstatically happy people singing about wanting to teach the world to sing in prefect harmony etc. while they are in fact collapsing in fungoid heaps of rotting flesh.<
Yea, and verily..
Some questions about the effectiveness of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, from the British Medical Journal BMJ. The “absolute risk reduction” is relatively small and is being downplayed by the vaccine manufacturers. This is a calculation of how much the vaccine reduces the likelihood that a person would become infected.
For example, if a non-vaccinated person has a 50% chance of becoming infected with a disease, and a vaccinated person has a 10% chance, then the “absolute risk reduction” would be 40%. The absolute risk reductions for the Covid-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna are estimated to be less than 1%.
For the Pfizer vaccine, it’s only about 0.4% reduction. For the Moderna vaccine, it’s only about 0.6% reduction in the risk of having a detectable infection (and less than 0.1% reduction in the risk of getting a “severe” infection).
Thus, for the Moderna vaccine “to prevent one severe illness 1370 individuals must be vaccinated. The other 1369 individuals are not saved from a severe illness, but are subject to vaccine adverse effects, whatever they may be and whenever we learn about them.”
Pfizer’s vaccine “may be more than 90% effective.”
…This sounds impressive, but the absolute risk reduction for an individual is only about 0.4%
…to prevent just 1 Covid-19 case 256 individuals must get the vaccine; the other 255 individuals derive no benefit, but are subject to vaccine adverse effects, whatever they may be and whenever we learn about them……We’ve already heard that an early effect of the vaccine is “like a hangover or the flu.” Will vaccinees who are later exposed to coronaviruses have more severe illness as a result of antibody-dependent enhancement of infection (ADEI), a known hazard of coronavirus vaccines? Is there squalene in the Pfizer vaccine? If so, will vaccinees be subject to autoimmune diseases, like Gulf War Syndrome and narcolepsy that have been associated with the adjuvant?https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4347/rr-4
Moderna’s phase III trial has shown that, so far, the vaccine is 94.5% effective. (Mahase, BMJ 2020;371:m4471, November 17) As with the Pfizer vaccine news release, few numbers are provided, but we can approximate the absolute risk reduction for a vaccinated individual and the Number Needed To Vaccinate (NNTV): There were 90 cases of Covid-19 illness in a placebo group of 15,000 (0.006) and 5 cases in a vaccine group of 15,000 (0.00033). This yields an absolute risk reduction of 0.00567 and NNTV = 176 (1/0.00567). There were 11 severe illnesses, all in the placebo group, for an absolute risk reduction of 0.00073 and NNTV = 1370. So to prevent one severe illness 1370 individuals must be vaccinated. The other 1369 individuals are not saved from a severe illness, but are subject to vaccine adverse effects, whatever they may be and whenever we learn about them… Shouldn’t absolute risk reduction be reported so individuals can make fully informed decisions about vaccinations?“Are our politicians and “experts” complicit or are they simply incompetent?”
thomasjkenney said:
A (very) large component is blackmail. Non-compliance with ‘the program’ means certain, public, vivid destruction. And if blackmail doesn’t stick, there’s the ‘Paul Wellstone Solution’.
Hear, effing hear, tjk! Does all that’s happening not have the blackmail vibe you mention?
“Are our politicians and “experts” complicit or are they simply incompetent?”
Adding: if it’s mere incompetence, how come the authoritarian “incompetence” benefits the Very Few, over and over and over and over and over and over and..
Let me know when you see the”incompetence” *ever* benefiting the People-
-Bill7
Dr. D: “We’re claiming a pandemic that has NO ADDITIONAL DEATHS at the end of the year. Yes, early on it pulled a few forward, but now it’s no deaths. Not even among the elderly, as John Hopkins just printed.…Unless you don’t trust John Hopkins.”
I dug deeper into the Johns Hopkins article. It appeared in the Johns Hopkins News-Letter, a student publication. The article was retracted because of a claim that contradicts the CDC data which shows that there have been roughly 300,000 excess deaths (from all causes) in the US this year, compared to the previous 5 years.
Briand was quoted in the article as saying, “All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers.” This claim is incorrect and does not take into account the spike in raw death count from all causes compared to previous years. According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19.
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
The article which was retracted:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Tnb1a8TXHj_jJCM2BDfGSriUgdn-2gec/viewBGrahamMD: “So, the question of whether PCR tests are reliable hinges on “reliable for what?” Are they reliable in telling us whether a person can currently infect others? No, they are not.”
But that’s precisely what they’re being used for. People are being quarantined for two weeks after testing positive. Everyone who has come in close contact with that person is also being quarantined. Example: my friend’s five year old granddaughter was quarantined at home for two weeks after ONE child in her classroom tested positive. If that child’s test wasn’t reliable in telling us the child could infect others, why is everyone quarantined?
People would be more willing to listen if what you said made logical sense.
Lot to unpack in these emails. I’ll pick one topic:
“BGraham, please explain: For laymen, what we need is an Actionable test. That is, when it says yes, we have it, when it says no, we don’t. With a reasonable level of error, like <5%.”
Accuracy of a test depends on a couple of factors. One, existence of a true “gold standard.” For example MRI scan can now predict with some accuracy the existence of prostate cancer. One looks for certain signs that indicate cancer, then take the prostate out, examine it, and see if you’re right. That path exam is the “gold standard.” But how do you know if you REALLY have/had COVID? What do you measure PCR testing against? You see the difficulty. Secondly, accuracy depends on large part on pre-test probability; Bayes theorem.Here’s a reference on Bayes theorem in Medicine:
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/bayes-s-theorem-what-s-the-big-deal/
Here’s a (technical) paper on false positive PCRs:
https://www.icd10monitor.com/false-positives-in-pcr-tests-for-covid-19“But that’s precisely what they’re being used for. People are being quarantined for two weeks after testing positive. Everyone who has come in close contact with that person is also being quarantined. Example: my friend’s five year old granddaughter was quarantined at home for two weeks after ONE child in her classroom tested positive. If that child’s test wasn’t reliable in telling us the child could infect others, why is everyone quarantined?”
Wouldn’t it be great if we had a reliable test that told us whether someone is infectious? That would be a real game changer. Well, we don’t have one. Sorry. Quarantine duration–recently shortened by the CDC- is based on the vagaries of the incubation period, and best guess as to the period of infectivity.I agree with BGrahamMD. The articles criticizing the PCR tests are misguided. The purpose of the PCR test is to detect whether the virus is active in the patient. That’s all. The purpose is not to determine whether the patient is sick. The purpose is not to determine whether the patient can infect others. If you want a test to measure those things, you will need to go out and develop one on your own. If anyone has a better idea for a diagnostic test, then what is your suggestion?
You might say that makes the PCR test useless. I beg to differ. I think it is useful as a measure to determine how far the virus has spread and how many people have been exposed. There are limits to what the test tells us. So what? It’s the best diagnostic test we have.
Yes, it is possible to get false positives by making a test like this too sensitive. What is the correct response? Don’t make the test too sensitive. Reduce the number of cycles.
So some companies or some countries may have made the tests too sensitive? Which companies? Which countries? Don’t throw PCR under the bus just because there may have been local problems with some tests.
Beware the propaganda. On both sides.
“Wouldn’t it be great if we had a reliable test that told us whether someone is infectious? That would be a real game changer. Well, we don’t have one.”
Why not after nine months? Don’t you think that would be the first thing you would do before jumping straight to a vaccine? Does anyone else here find it strange that people who never comment show up randomly to chastise people who question the official narrative? I’ll give benmd the benefit of the doubt though since he actually answers questions that are asked of him.
Regarding with problems testing for SARS-CoV-2…
There are so many problems and they keep changing.
People have a binary-choice mentality, so a test with a sliding false-positivity rate, and a false-negative tendency if the specimen is collected wrong will be treated as a positive or a negative.
In July, in Austin, we had up to a 15 day delay in test results. That is a huge problem with testing.
Our public health clinic bought an expensive Abbot machine to run rapid test, almost a month ago, test kits to follow… but there are no test kits for us, none, a $250k Ferrari and no gasoline.
If we had the test kits, we would have rapid results with a low false positive rate, and a lowish sensitivity, which happen to pick up the level of viral antigen that infectious noses have.
Again, I’ll assert that they don’t want us to deal with this, because we need to be frustrated and distracted while they (our owners) work their problems out, so we can all move forward into the global reset. When they ship everybody therapeutic doses of vitamin-D, I’ll know they have come to an agreement of some kind.They arrested the owner/manager of McSorley’s
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/owner-nyc-bar-arrested-days-after-declaring-autonomous-zone-dodge-pandemic-restrictionsHey Ilargi – playing to the crowd or trolling us?
Would a better test than the pcr test be ‘better’ – yes of course but to say that it is useless or 97% wrong is ridiculous.
We know this because sharply rising positive tests are always followed by sharply rising hospital admissions which are then followed by rising icu admissions and then more deaths. Maybe we shouldn’t think of as a test but instead a ‘paranormal precognitive vector from the future’.
When you jump down the rabbit hole it’s good to come up for air occasionally.
As far as the vaccine article goes it highlights just how rushed these trials are but gets a lot very wrong. You highlighted
‘AstraZeneca, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, and Pfizer have primary analyses that distribute the vaccine to only 100, 151, 154, and 164 participants respectively.’
That is just a stupid statement. That is not the number of people that were vaccinated but rather the number of sars-cov-2 ‘infections’ required for ‘meaningful’ analysis to be done. (how many of these infections were in the placebo group compared to how many from the vaccinated group) That’s where these numbers on effectiveness come from.
Of course these companies are going to apply for EUA’s as soon as possible. Why? – because there is a shit-ton of money to be made.
They’re going to get it too (unless of course a bunch of recipients of the actual vaccine start dropping dead and it’s found out)
Why are they going to get it when we have no actual data yet and even when we get it it won’t be much?
They will get it because despite all the ‘Plandemic’ style BS that has been floating around here lately the governments in the western world are desperate to make this ‘go away’. They are desperate because sars-cov-2 has brutally exposed their total incompetence. It is a true ‘the emperor has no clothes’ moment and it’s there for all to see. That’s the real ‘take away’ from this disaster.
What are these “sides” you speak of?
There are at least two, and probably a whole lot more. I am talking about those who have an agenda, and who put their agenda above the facts. One “side” is the pharmaceutical establishment, which would like to convince us that we are all paralyzed until they can develop a vaccine. Another “side” comes from those who have downplayed the virus from the beginning, whether from ideological or financial reasons. Or for political gain.
There is battle raging for control of the narrative.
When it comes to dealing with the virus, the less variables introduced the better.
I prefer my body’s 80% chance of dealing with the virus.
I also prefer my own steps to reduce the odds of getting the virus. N95, Vit D.
The one variable I do not want to introduce into my risk mix, are the drug dealers!
Testing, vaccines, vitamins, endless bickering = smoke screen.
What is the average daily death toll per country for the past nine months?
The explanation that everybody would understand would be: «In our country, last year on average x people died each day; in 2020 and up until now on average x+many people died each day. That staggering increase can only be attributed to the new virus.»
Why is this information being withheld?
What is the real extent of the staggering increase in deaths that is being used as an excuse to destroy the lives of healthy, normal adults and children?The countries with the most draconian measures are between the most advanced in the world, they have access to the latest and most accurate data – what are they hiding?
Well everybody cheer up!
President Biden will instruct the media to stop mentioning the virus and it will suddenly magically disappear along with Trump!
Well everybody cheer up!
Here’s a thought to cheer everyone up. The billionaire class has learned that it can make a killing during a pandemic. They have also learned that it is possible to manufacture viruses like this in the lab. And the pharmaceutical companies have learned that they can make a killing making vaccines, even if the vaccines are never approved.
If it worked once, why not try it again?
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