Dmitry Orlov had a similar posting in 2012 where he compared the collapse to an old bridge…
6/5/12 Fragility and Collapse: Slowly at first, then all at once
You see, predicting that something is going to happen is a lot easier than predicting when something will happen. Suppose you have an old bridge: the concrete is cracked, chunks of it are missing with rusty rebar showing through. An inspector declares it “structurally deficient.” This bridge is definitely going to collapse at some point, but on what date? That is something that nobody can tell you.
more…
https://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2012/06/fragility-and-collapse-slowly-at-first.html
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