Debt Rattle April 17 2020
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Dorothea Lange American River camp, Sacramento, CA. Destitute family. 5 children, aged 2 to 17 years 1936 • China Didn’t Warn Public Of Likely
[See the full post at: Debt Rattle April 17 2020]Dorothea Lange American River camp, Sacramento, CA. Destitute family. 5 children, aged 2 to 17 years 1936
They’re smiling…
Sometimes I think bullshit…
…and then I think…
…and I still come up with bullshit…
…it’s all bullshit; but then…what isn’t…Coronavirus: five months on, what scientists now know about Covid-19
As a result, some scientists have proposed a way to speed up the process – by deliberately exposing volunteers to the virus to determine a vaccine’s efficacy.
Volunteers would have to be young and healthy, he stresses: “Their health would also be closely monitored, and they would have access to intensive care and any available medicines.”
But deliberately infecting people – in particular volunteers who would be given a placebo vaccine as part of the trial – is controversial. “This will have to be thought through very carefully,” says Professor Adam Finn of Bristol University. “Young people might jump at the opportunity to join such a trial but this is a virus that does kill the odd young person.”
“how many jobs can society do without? The answer, it would appear, is an awful lot.”
Aye. Much of the work performed by Euromericans of the Western Empire is non-productive work. At screaming best, neither productive nor destructive. At worst, and much of today’s jobs are, destructive. A shutdown of the Pet Rock factory would be a blessing.
On the other hand, once the price of energy in the USA is no longer supported by petrodollar geopolitics, many people will find new work doing very hard physical labor for much less reimbursement. INdentureship and similar forms of human bondage will reemerge. (The gig economy is a template for this already happening, but instead of share-cropping we have share-taxiing/share-delivery, etc.)
To twist a semi-famous quote by William Gibson: ‘The Greater Depression is already here, just not yet evenly distributed.’
The Great Depression of the 30s/WWII emerged into a world swimming with cheap oil, ore, and a vast new applied engineering sector making thngs that made life easier that we could sell to easch other and abroad. This time, we’ll emerge from a colossal monetary swindle into a world of enormous population overload and rap;idly dwindling physical resources.
On the other hand, obesity will rapidly be resolved.
But I’m saying nothing that the likes of James Kunstler haven’t already said, and in Kunstler’s case, with more than enough expressive color.
“It should be easy for Xi to prevent this. • Chinese Airlines Poised For Post-Coronavirus ‘Revenge Travelling’ (SCMP)”
I wonder if our topsy-turvy ruling systems haven’t created the kind of self-and-others-destructive pessimistic nihilism that history reports being so common among the victims of war and other devastations? Of the kind described here:
See: Anomie
“Durkheim observed that the conflict between the evolved organic division of labour and the homogeneous mechanical type was such that one could not exist in the presence of the other.[9]
“When solidarity is organic, anomie is impossible.[10] Sensitivity to mutual needs promotes evolution in the division of labour. “Producers, being near consumers, can easily reckon the extent of the needs to be satisfied. Equilibrium is established without any trouble and production regulates itself.”[10] Durkheim contrasted the condition of anomie as being the result of a malfunction of organic solidarity after the transition to mechanical solidarity:
But on the contrary, if some opaque environment is interposed … relations [are] rare, are not repeated enough … are too intermittent. Contact is no longer sufficient. The producer can no longer embrace the market at a glance, nor even in thought. He can no longer see its limits, since it is, so to speak limitless. Accordingly, production becomes unbridled and unregulated.[10]“Durkheim’s use of the term anomie was about the phenomenon of industrialization—mass-regimentation that could not adapt due to its own inertia—its resistance to change, which causes disruptive cycles of collective behavior e.g. economics, due to the necessity of a prolonged buildup of sufficient force or momentum to overcome the inertia.”
That is the single most powerful graph describing why a crash is inevitable and why it is poised to be so devastating.
Lange. Destitute and happy, unlike us. Rich and miserable.
N.B.: If nobody works, everybody dies.
“Shut it down Mr. President, shut it down.”
More people dying, not less.
The WHO serially pushes vaccines that decimate the population. CDC approves.
”The past few months are not a litany of errors and honest mistakes”
Fed is now owned by the Treasury. They have issued statements that the Treasury makes the plans, the Fed executes them as their fiduciary agent. That being true, we are now on the “American Plan” as outlined by Hamilton. The U.S. loans itself money it can recoup on the productivity it finances. There is not an infinite leak of % interest to outside interests.
We have 0% interest. So we really are printing it for our projects and people. There really is no need of taxes, since we’re using the inflation tax, as advertised by them cancelling IRS April tax day for now. Perhaps ever, we’ll see.
https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2020/04/05/Photos/NS/MW-ID812_Dow_Tr_20200405193403_NS.png?uuid=ef526528-7795-11ea-8d34-9c8e992d421eLong-term Dow remains safely over 20k. Yes, it’s being manipulated, but is this also seeing something else, telling us what insiders know and think about Wu Flu? Looks like they think it’s a time to churn n burn. From 100% Bull to get people 100% Bear. Which I’m sure they are by now. “If everybody’s thinking the same thing, nobody’s thinking.”
What are these things telling you? Financial reset. Jubilee, even, of a kind.
I’ve said this before, just keeping it fresh. The cure was put off a week or two, but so much sturm und drang in the air, can’t tell what’s going on.
(Doesn’t like multiple pics per post)
“7 Midwestern States Release Plan to Reopen Economies May 15” Huh. Opened before they’re even closed. I’m sure Brooklyn will cry although they’ve never been there and have no idea how different it is. 19 people per square mile.
https://preview.redd.it/voxaiv2yuew21.jpg?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=0949534a8f600d8b6eaa41758d94d949e62553fbDon’t open. Definitely need quarantine. Keep those farmers home and away from those corn seeding machines, since the “job” of “food” that creates the “economy” is so unimportant to everyone.
https://www.deere.com/assets/images/region-4/products/planting-equipment/db-planters/db90-54-row-20-planter/db90_54_row20_0088651_large_2e47bb8f1eb1c6fb011dd723cfa9ccc7042671e7.jpgJudd, you got within 10,000 acres of Kyle. That’s too close, y’hear?
Population density:
https://www.netstate.com/states/tables/state_population_2010_psm.htmThat chart tells you that in a democracy only 9 states would ever vote: California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Georgia, and within those states only a few cities. The rest of the nation can be run like an African colony, but then it already is, the way Philadelphia or Chicago destroy the rest of their state but NY and SF destroy the rest of the nation. Boring. Rural people, 41 states: who cares? Federalism, blah blah, Hamilton blah blah Law.
Meanwhile, gold:
https://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au1825nyb.gifMore importantly, much higher in non-dollar:
http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/2a-euro-us-5y-Large.gif
That’s 50% in 9 months.So still nobody died in China but their GDP is off 10%? Because they’re such nice guys, I guess.
“there are two constraints on our ability to deal with the coronavirus pandemic. The first constraint is money.”
Oh my loving God, no. Money is a PROXY for actual things. Printing money does not make doctors or masks. We are all going to die if you can’t realize that by now. And here’s a guy talking about “biophysical restraints.” That’s the only restraint there is. Ever. Money is a measuring device. We build houses out of 2x4s, not out of tape measures. He wants to print more tape measures.
How many jobs can we do without? No one knows. But I wouldn’t get saucy about it: you can say it’s not important to put on roofs or harvest crops for a while until it rains and the granaries are empty. You won’t know those jobs were important until too late. We are drawing on 100% of that warehoused goods and existing infrastructure right now. You could say hanging electric lines is “nonessential” for even many months, until at last the power goes out. Repairing bridges is “nonessential” for decades, until they collapse into the river. Who can tell? Not you, me, or Taleb.
“22 Million New Jobless Claims, 9.2 Million Lost Health Care in Past Month (NBC)”
But this was 100% voluntary. “No one will die if only we shut it all down.” Not even if you lose your job, the cupboards are bare, and you have a heart attack. Congratulations, you just killed all those people, either with actual stress, or by taking their jobs, or with the lack of their jobs preventing critical functions from happening, like food. But that’s not counted so it doesn’t exist. Corona is counted, so it’s the only thing that exists.
“43,000 US Millionaires Will Get ‘Stimulus’ Averaging $1.6 Million Each (NYP)”
Darn them for keeping small businesses open so they will still exist next year to rehire people!!! Darn you all to heck! We want every one of those sole proprietors dead, dead, dead, so you can only work at Home Depot and Amazon and get hauled out in an ambulance at minimum wage instead.
It’s “a “scandal” to “loot American taxpayers”?? Listen, those were the only people in the whole U.S. that paid any taxes. The bottom 50% pay zero. GE, Amazon, pay zero. They’re looting Themselves to pay THEMSELVES. Small business, million-scale are also the only people who net hire anyone. Microsoft buys the million-dollar businesses and fires everyone. Xerox collapses whole industries into dust. Only small business does anything in all America besides sucking lobbyist teat, as I’ve posted the charts before. So I know it hurts, but the million-dollar level is where that is now. Why?
Q: What do you call a millionaire in California? A homeowner. Houses of dual-professionals are $500,000+ even in the POOREST places in America like Louisiana or Michigan. So “Millionaires”? Jesus and the Saints, people, thanks to 100 years of your socialist inflation, a “Millionaire” is a now a Union guy who owns a house and a pension fund. Re-calibrate your radio for the 20th century at least. “Pass-through” means you’re a nobody, since if you were of any size at all you’d incorporate and cut your total risk. Accountingwise it’s akin to being a plumber with one van. A “millionaire” means you don’t even have 5 employees. So do we want small-business support or not? According to the NYC Post, a city where $1M doesn’t EVEN make you a homeowner: Not. “Shut it down, Mr. President, shut those small businesses down!” Why? If you have two nickels to rub together, we need to tax one. You don’t need that “extra” nickel, you might put it to work hiring people.
“Plague was thought to spread through corrupt air, on the breath of the sick or trapped in soft materials like cloth”
What superstitious jerks: this is exactly what we think today.
“The Sanità spent an enormous amount of money on food”
Did they spend 330M x $1,200 = $396,000,000,000.00? In a single month? Gosh, how backward we are not to give money = food = poor. Probably ought to write a check or something. But not plant and harvest that “food” the poor eat. That would be a “job” and help the “economy”, so they’re not important.
“If nobody works, everybody dies.”
Good thing that isn’t happening. Good thing that even the most severe quarantine lockdown proposals don’t include “nobody work(ing)”
It’s kind of like those useless jobs at the Pet Rock Espresso Factory that our economy can shed and actually benefit from losing as we transition from a Plenty Oil to a Peak Oil world in which people have no choice but to do real work or die. Useless, nay, destructive jobs like posting numerous straw dog fallacies day after day after day… but it’s a job, I suppose.
“Darn them for keeping small businesses open so they will still exist next year to rehire people!!! Darn you all to heck! We want every one of those sole proprietors dead, dead, dead, so you can only work at Home Depot and Amazon and get hauled out in an ambulance at minimum wage instead.”
(referring to this article): Rentiers Rule, Employers Drool which mentions this:
“The act allows pass-through businesses — ones taxed under individual income, rather than corporate — an unlimited amount of deductions against their non-business income, such as capital gains, the Washington Post said. They can also use losses to avoid paying taxes in other years….Hedge-fund investors and real estate business owners are “far and away” the ones who will benefit the most, tax expert Steve Rosenthal told the Washington Post.”
I can’t even disagree with Doc D’s opinbions because there’s so little relation between them and the facts, and I generally don’t bother disagreeing with opinions built from vaporwre. They’re untestable. Like the models Doc and others so deride, said opinions are flawed before they start owing to the data from which they’re extrapolated.
“But I wouldn’t get saucy about it: you can say it’s not important to put on roofs or harvest crops for a while until it rains and the granaries are empty. ”
We’re still employing people to raise and pick our fruit:
I’m curious, Raul. THe above link is to a page of google search results? Is that the kind of linking you complained about me making? I don’t know. Asking for my Invisible Friend. If so, now I know, and won’t do it again.
Oh and this: “It’s “a “scandal” to “loot American taxpayers”?? Listen, those were the only people in the whole U.S. that paid any taxes. The bottom 50% pay zero. GE, Amazon, pay zero. They’re looting Themselves to pay THEMSELVES. Small business, million-scale are also the only people who net hire anyone. Microsoft buys the million-dollar businesses and fires everyone. Xerox collapses whole industries into dust. Only small business does anything in all America besides sucking lobbyist teat, as I’ve posted the charts before. So I know it hurts, but the million-dollar level is where that is now. Why?”
is true… but doesn’t fit with this:
“The changes included in the CARES Act would allow wealthy taxpayers to use losses in certain years to avoid paying taxes in other years. The day after Senate passage of the CARES Act, the JCT published a document estimating that the provisions together will reduce government revenue by $195 billion over ten years. Together, the changes are among the costliest provisions in the bill.” (from this
Lalaland is a colloquial term for “being out of touch with reality,” usually due to
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bliss or ignorance.
Too young to remember typing pool
Too young to remember punch cardsWow! So Walter Cronkite, the most trusted man in America, was just another goddamn, POS, corporate media shill. Who’d have thunk it?
Irrelevant pleasantness (but when is pleasantness ever irrelevant?)
The hdroxycholoroquine and zinc treatment seems like a miracle cure. A single treatment giving a result in 12 hours or less, and only used if the patient has developed severe symptoms, and without the need for a hospital.
Both components are cheap and plentiful. While hdroxycholoroquine has side effects, and interactions with other drugs and vitamins, this is minimised by the fact it is only a one-off treatment.
You would think this would be world wide news!
Nope.
My first search on this turned up a few newspaper articles in publications I had never heard of. No MSM. Now any searches shows up some medical websites where the subject is discussed, there are references to a couple of other doctors who are trying it [successfully!] but no widespread use.
It is almost as if people want the effects of the virus to be as bad as possible to justify a particular agenda!
The key seems to be the zinc, with the hdroxycholoroquine just helping to get the zinc inside the cells. The zinc prevents the virus replicating in the cell.
Any virus?
Any animal?
Is this a cure for ANY viral infection? A cure for the common flu? A cure for pig ebola? A cure for chicken flu?
The mechanism doesn’t seem specific to the coronavirus.
The hydroxycholoroquine and zinc treatment seems like a miracle cure.
Seems being the key term. There are lots of questions, few confirmations and especially lots of alarm stories. Best thing it has going for it is there’s nothing else. That works miracles when people -think they- are dying.
Not sure why you say one-off, most advice I’ve seen is based on a five-day regimen, which also includes azithromycin. That also would appear to leave out taking it only when people are gravely ill. The chance of being too late would be too elevated. Doctors like Zelenko and Raoult appear to base their treatments on a five-day (or so) regimen.
From what I’ve been reading over the past 2+ months, I’d say start a five-day cure the moment you begin feeling symptoms. Don’t wait till you’re half dead. Miracles are much nicer if you don’t have to wait for them.
Big problem for many of course is they have no access to choloroquines.
As for a cure against all viruses, given the speed at which they -can- mutate, it seems very unlikely there’ll ever be one. And even if we why found one, it would end up like antibiotics: we’d feed t it to animals, allowing viruses to mutate that much faster.
From Bosco: Useless, nay, destructive jobs like posting numerous straw dog fallacies day after day after day… but it’s a job, I suppose.
Thought it needed highlighting.
Thanx, PlanCit. It’s a msytery to me. Only reason I address it is that new people presumably visit here every day.
Some are credulous/naive/under/mis-informed. Others are skeptical/wise/well-informed.
The former are susceptible to those recurrent fallacies. This misinforms them and tends to draw in a certain kind of hyper-ventilating zealot.
The latter are repulsed by those recurrent fallacies.
I am all for letting anyone post here so long as they can address the basic issues thematic to TAE and aren’t absolute trolls. ‘Keep the peace’ forum moderation inevitably dumbs a joint down. So I’m all for Doc D/whomever having at it. Likewise, mah seff.
I have meant to tell zerosum that I enjoy his minimalist approach. Incrementally, it builds to something much bigger than the sum of its parts.
MIsstatement:
‘Like the models Doc and others so deride, said opinions are flawed before they start owing to the data from which they’re extrapolated.’ pls insert ‘lack of matching relationship between’ ‘to the’ & ‘the data’.
Thank you.
boscohorowitz
“I have meant to tell zerosum that I enjoy his minimalist approach. Incrementally, it builds to something much bigger than the sum of its parts.”Can I say “hinting” instead of minimalist?
You are doing the thinking and the building.An interesting graph, showing the number of weekly Covid-19 deaths in New York is now much larger than the typical number of weekly deaths from all causes; with a comparison to the “deadliest recent flu season” (2017-2018):
Covid-19 deaths, starting from March 2. (Covid Tracking Project)
The 2017-18 flu season: This was the deadliest recent flu season.
The data begin on October 1, 2017, which the CDC considered the first week of that flu season. (CDC)All deaths from all causes for the same period as the 2017-18 flu season. (CDC)
https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/not-like-the-flu-not-like-car-crashes-not-like
Positive group sentiments are so dang corny… but we can’t live without ’em. We approach a time soon where the very best thing we can do is hold (well-washed) hands and sing kumbaya.
This guy is, I think, The One to show us The Way. Anyway, I like the cut of his rig. Talk about a low-rider:
Ever feel like it’s just one thing after another?
Same song, but played live by the band, for those who want to see how it’s done:
…that the above is an arrangement thereof.
Sort of a thought experiment in chaos management or something:
like our closest behavioral relatives, the ants and bees, we build vast networks around enormous hives. Farm, enslave, war, the usual. And like them, we do it all in the service of an enormously bloated central ruler (BCR) whom we occasionally remove, but the BCR often attempts the reverse (which mostly turns out badly for them):
Queen Ant Will Sacrifice Colony to Retain Throne (a fascinating read)
We are the next generation of socially regimented large-herd species, however. We have compounded and interlinked our hives and queens (suck it, Bezos) so that almost all the parasites now rule over all the hives in some kind of manifold monstrosity.
Question: do all the bloated parasites act in concert when things tighten? or do they attack each other? do they sacrifice their colony to save their throne when they hardly rule their own colony, doing so mostly in name and exploitation access alone? do they sacrifice each others’ ? do they even notice when the worker ants start biting and spraying them? or do they remain oblivious until it’s too late?
“The worker ants weren’t fooled, however, as they could sniff out a selfish queen, the researchers found. The queens that were most fertile had the stronger chemical cues (and thus stronger odors), which made them more likely to be spared execution by workers.
“Execution of the most selfish ant queens by workers would increase the incentive for queens to be team-players that work hard to help the colony,” Holman said. “This rudimentary ‘legal system’ could have helped ants to evolve their highly advanced societies, just as in humans.”
Speaking of herds and instincts:
Ants More Aggressive When in Gangs
We’re watching the initial traces of gang formation. Right now it’s still in embryonic form, countless eggs still forming their core blastocysts. In a few months they’ll have recognizable features.
THISis pert near proof positive of why we don’t need a master plan run by a buncha evil rich geniuses to let a runaway virus ruin things for pert near all of us, although there’re always a few lucky dogs somewhere. (Ask Kurt Vonnegut.)
“Governors Divide By Party On Trump Plan To Reopen Businesses Shut By Coronavirus”
One can argue that our congressional clowns are able to bark in unison synch to the bouncing ball of lobbyist cash in a way that would serve alleged master plan. It’s possible. But simple corrupt daisy-chains of doing the same old shitty thing the same old way forever and ever amen suffice just as well and fit Occam’s Razor better.
My marker is on this explanation: things really have gone that far to shit. The CIC can neither sink nor bail out our Titanic. As the stern rises high, they cheer for yet another stock market rally and the rising tide that will sink all boats.
Stupid is as stupid does. With evil genius like this, who need stupid lazy greed?
“Unearned unhappiness
That’s all right I guess”In my humble (well, to be honest, I’m not really all that humble) opinion the baddies made their play, it was evil enough but not big enough, and now they are going to pay. China has noticeably dialed back it’s universally rejected bullshit. Trump is about to repatriate a big chunk of the money they stole (reparations for the viral war crime) while Xi is a deer in the headlights (cross-hairs?) of a vengeful world. Globalist Fortress Europe tells Apple and Google to take their transparently NWO “contact tracing” software off the shelves, and the northern Hemisphere (at least) has traversed the peak of the first wave of the Wuhan virus.
All in all a pretty good week compared to what it looked like it was going to be (and nearly was ! )
Now for Act II, in which a world pushed to ( or past ?? ) the brink of economic collapse will teeter on that brink for a while as we watch in fascinated horror. Which way is this sucker is gonna fall? Into the abyss or back onto it’s butt ? I sure as hell don’t know.
Maybe it will teeter indefinitely in the perpetual cliff hanger that we’ve all gotten incredulously used to. Guess we’ll have to wait for the next exciting episode.further on ny state excess deaths: in 2017 ny state deaths from all causes was 155,191 (calendar year, not flu season). 155,191 / 365 = 425 deaths / day.
for the month of april so far, the average coronavirus death total per day is 663 (this figure doesn’t include the recently announced ‘additional’ 3,778 nyc deaths)as far as i know, only in ny and italy have coronavirus deaths exceeding previous all cause mortality. (iran and china may also belong on the list)
this article also discusses excess mortality (in italy):
COVID-19: excess mortality figures in Italythe death distribution map is very interesting. if anyone is aware of similar maps available for ny, germany or south korea please post a link (excess deaths preferred, as opposed to coronavirus deaths only). tia.
For those here who might be interested, here is some research on the financial impact to the NZ economy of the current L4 lockdown. nb: he’s not discussing the merit thereof, it’s just raw data that geeks may wish to use: https://croakingcassandra.com/2020/04/18/how-large-a-gdp-loss-under-level-4/
Some more data about excess deaths, from James Tozer (at The Economist):
In Spain, data from @SaludISCIII suggest 13,000 excess deaths in March, compared to 8,000 official. Like Italy, Spain’s daily totals rely chiefly on data provided by hospitals, so might miss many victims who die elsewhere, or were not tested.
In France, we used data from @InseeFr, which show excess deaths of about 8,000 people by April 3rd. The official death toll from hospitals was about 5,000 at that point. Since April 1st, the health ministry has included deaths from care homes, causing a large rise.
In Britain, data from @ONS suggest excess deaths of about 7,000 in the four weeks to April 3rd. A revised count of covid cases—using death certificates, rather than daily data from hospitals—came to 6,200 in the same period.
In the Netherlands, data from @statisticscbs show a large undercount: 4,000 excess deaths in the four weeks to April 5th, vs 1,700 official at that point. This might explain why the current official toll of 3,100 is so low.
“In my humble (well, to be honest, I’m not really all that humble) opinion the baddies made their play, it was evil enough but not big enough, and now they are going to pay.”
I like that. I like that a lot. I like the cadence of the syntax, the bounce of the prose, I just like it. I think it’s, like, the perfect point spread on the probability range of various interpretations of events.
I’ll add that it looks to me like Putin gets the catbird seat view of it all. Whatever the bloody plague does to his population etc., the economy whose rebuilding he has strongly presided over will recover much faster than most any nation or region.
Modern jazz has become ancient dead history. My my:
boscohorowitz
Thank you, and wow. Not only do I appreciate the complement but I’m deeply impressed by how squarely you smacked a whole row of nails right on their heads. The cadence and bounce are what I strive for when editing the initial prose. In other words, it’s not an accident, but will quickly add that it’s not vanity or show boating either. I’ve found that discomforting truths are best said (if time allows) with as much style, grace, music and humor as possible. Otherwise they just hurt so much that most people will simply reject the entire communication out of hand.
For example, “… like, the perfect point spread on the probability range of various interpretations of events.” That’s perfect. It’s literally beautiful and made me aware of something I have indeed been trying to do in my thinking and writing all along, , but without fully comprehending just what that was myself.
I’ve heard that jazz musicians consider their main audience to be other jazz musicians. I get that a little better now. My word play is partly for fun, mostly for necessity, and completely as truthful as I can make it.Raul
There seems to be two main treatments based around hydroxychloroquine.
One in which hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin are given for a period of days or weeks in the hope that the patient will be cured.
The second uses hydroxychloroquine with zinc sulphate given when the patient is seriously ill. The patient is symptom free in about 12 hours! The ‘within 12 hours’ suggests only a single treatment is required. [According to Dr. Cardillo in the States]. I would certainly like to see further confirmation on this treatment.
My thought about whether it would be effective against all viruses is the claim [by Cardillo] that the zinc inside the cell stops the replication of the virus. My question really is whether it stops ANY virus replicating in the cell. This would mean any mutations or varieties of virus are irrelevant.
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