Debt Rattle September 6 2019
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Claude Monet Éretrat sunset 1882-3 • The Trade War Is Smart Geopolitics (NR) • China’s Growth Is Slowing, but not Because of the Trade War (PII
[See the full post at: Debt Rattle September 6 2019]Mish Shedlock thinks Boris Johnson pulled a faster one than expected. The “Queen’s Consent” is necessary, due to the overly directive wording of the bill that passed, telling Johnson EXACTLY what to do about Brexit extension.
“The Benn Bill requires Johnson’s approval. What do you think the odds of that are?”
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/another-weird-brexit-turn-tories-vote-to-support-no-deal-bill-in-house-of-lords-mUB9gkhpJEWtrA9sXGNoOw/“Why is our industrial supply chain located inside of an adversary?”
Clue phone: someone finally picked up. We don’t have steel, shipbuilding, circuits, or rare earths, which means we are helpless before a military adversary. How long does history suggest that can last?
“The free traders have an answer: because the market wills it.”
Well yes, quite so. However, those corporations have a home country. If they would like to maintain their business license there, they cannot be undermining their host’s economy and committing sedition. Ask China. That is exactly how they treat (U.S.) corporations there, and GM, Google say “Yay! Of course we will help the Chinese nation and Chinese military! We love China.” Hey wait: when we ask you to do that here, you say it’s crazy and oppressive. “Well yes, but we hate America, Americans, the Betsy Ross flag, and everything America stands for, i.e. “Freedom’ and Democracy, instead of Authoritarian Fascism.” Duh.
“Free trade with China means allowing its distortions into our market.”
Yes, but we don’t have free trade with China. We are open to China, and they are closed to us – a one-way street. “All your base are belong to us.”
“we will watch helplessly as American innovations are transformed into growth-boosting industries elsewhere,”
Yes, if you fight a war against an unarmed opponent – and in this scenario WE are unarmed. But like they say: I’m not picking on China, if the U.S. body politic gives the whole nation (that is to say, all MY money and options) to China for tiny bribes like a 10c whore, China should absolutely take them. …And we should then arrest, try, and hang that body politic for sedition if not treason. But that’s China doing the RIGHT thing, it’s US that needs reform
“First, as is well known, US taxpayers, not Chinese consumers and companies, are bearing the burden of Trump’s tariffs.”
Like everything written by adults in America, this is false. Here we go, using Denninger’s example: In America, we now have 10% tariffs on $100 shoes. So $110, right? Wrong. The tariffs are on the WHOLESALE price, pre-import. Thanks to the disaster-that-is-globalism, the shoes may cost $20 in Hong Kong. 10% of $20 is $2. So the price has risen to $102. Hardly relevant to any American consumer.
But wait! It’s not even $102, small as it is. In reality, the businesses in the supply chain look at the pricing: retail says, “hey, can we just hold the price at an even $100? We’re not sure customers won’t change brands.” Wholesaler grumbles and says, “alright, I’ll split it with you.” = $1. Then HE goes back to HIS supplier and says the same thing, and HIS supplier is in China. China is losing jobs to Vietnam and Thailand furiously and has been for years. So they say, “Absolutely, we will cut out prices (profits), $1.75, just keep our lights on and our wheels turning.”
Cost through to Americans? $0.25 on $100. Are we winning? Yes. And we can keep this up all day, which is why Trump just reloaded another $100B by claiming they are a “currency manipulator”. He did tell them at the beginning, when you’re in a hole as deep as Congress has dug America, all directions are now up. China has had to bail out three mega-banks banks that in Europe would be considered the largest on the continent.
Sanity check: go to China-Mart, am I wrong, are prices rising? No. I’ve been shocked at the LACK of push-through on prices. …And I thought all you Socialists WANTED corporate profits to drop. Now they have: they’re eating the tariffs and helping the workers. But that’s bad now? Can’t please some people.
No Peterson, your statement is false. Visit Wal-mart sometime in your life and check your theories against reality. The surprise has been how WELL it’s been going and how little it’s hurt, although it would have been worth it even at the whole cost. …Otherwise, America would cease as a nation.
“The US only comprises around 18% of Chinese exports.”
Alt-Market is correct. Besides, as they talk about “adjusting value-added,” “purchasing parity” blah blah, it’s quite difficult to tease out these numbers. However, China was getting hammered long before 2016, and their factories were unmanned “alien dreadnaught” factories installed by Japan with no workers already. Yet, like America, they must have employment or unrest. America’s adjustment is also pressuring the rest of the world, so the OTHER 18% buyers from Europe and Australia are going down. But China needs to BUY MORE OF ITS OWN PRODUCTS. Beyond necessary rebalancing of the world, they work hard and they deserve it. But we know from their production decline, electric use, and bank failures, they’re under enormous pressure. So while the facts are true, the headline impression is not.
China – being centralized and authoritarian, but also alien to us – believes that the Central powers, the Deep State, the media are all correct. They just have to hold out for the 2020 election, where every DNC candidate plus Joe Biden’s dog can easily beat Donald Trump. Then the DNC can sell out every American worker, every nut and screw, every port and real estate, to China like the last four Presidents did. It seems legit from their perch, but is COMPLETELY WRONG. Trump’s approval keeps rising each month, and is rising among black and Hispanic communities as well. –Some racism. Meanwhile though seemingly impossible, the DNC has found WORSE candidates than HRC, and is again openly destroying the only two that had any chance: Gabbard and Yang. This is while pissing off everyone in America by having a platform that attacks Betsy Ross, comedians, super heroes, and chicken sandwiches.
They’re the more backwards, fundamentalist, cult-like, lemon-sucking nags and scolds than Dana Carvy’s “Church Lady” ever could be, and Americans don’t like that sort of thing. If anything, at this point I’m sad to say Trump will win by 30% more than last time, and thanks to “the Squad”, win the House too, giving China no reprieve. But you can see their point: China always is patient, and out-waits their enemies.
“Trump Administration Backs Privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (MW)”
MarketWatch, ever protecting fakeness, forgets that Fannie and Freddy WERE private. Top front of their stock said in big red letters, “THIS IS NOT BACKED BY THE U.S. GOVERNMENT” and will not be bailed out. Americans called in to Congress 1000:1 and shut down the phone lines ordering them not to bail them out. But we don’t have a democracy, so of course they did. So, MarketWatch, WHY WOULD IT MATTER IF THEY ARE “PRIVATE” or not? There are no “Private” corporations in America, all insider companies are a merger of Corporation and State. What’s the quick and handy name for this system of government? You should know it, the term is being used a lot lately.
“Is Armed Conflict Possible in Today’s Europe? (Spiegel)”
Ah Spiegel, I wouldn’t know where to start. Yes, after ANY war nations are too exhausted to fight = peace. Always, for 5,000 years, nothing new. For 75 years, as always, they used that peace to overtake and chisel their neighbors, setting the stage for grievances and imbalances that precipitate the new war. Peole’s cultures and Nationalities never went anywhere, and thanks to the attempt to destroy all your neighbors for power and profit, nationalism has been rising since the EU failed to allow even the illusion of democracy in the votes of ’99. Europe was not ‘growing’ together, it was being shackled together against the rather tepid objections and adjustments of the people. Because of all that, Europe, like all over, was not a democracy, and the EU by its own process and structure is absolutely not a democracy in any form. Parliaments have no power over it, and the EU representatives are a student government that can only limply suggest what the bureaucracy should do. Like the vaunted Soviet State, the EU Soviet bureaucracy has all power and control and reports to powers unknown while pretending to work for the people. This is made abundantly clear by their actions of destroying Greece, Italy, Spain, Catalonia, Portugal, and even themselves in Germany, France, etc.
Therefore, rather than leaving nations and people alone, YOU Spiegel, YOU E.U., have insured the coming war. …And so we shall always warn them, but so it shall always be.
…But what would it matter, a nation E.U. or a Federal E.U.? You think the U.S. can’t have war, a civil war, because they are “one nation?” Don’t be an idiot. They’re precipitating and insuring a civil war here they’ve been setting up since the ‘60s. Nationality is no preventative for war: not screwing people is. But power-deranged sociopaths can’t understand that. They can’t stop stealing because otherwise how would they get rich? On their own merits? Then Eton and Harvard would have to close.
“Boris Johnson: I’d Rather Be Dead in a Ditch than Delay Brexit (BBC)”
I’m not following this, but didn’t Labour prevent all democracy – again – by preventing a snap election? Why? Because as everybody knew, they are against all their own people and districts, and FOR London and the wealthy EU powers, in erasing all sovereignty from these British shores. Just as they’ve said, they are international communists, undermining England for 50 years. …Aaaaaaaaand here we are.
…And just like our own Democratic Party, back home.
Anyway, point being, they don’t want democracy, and they don’t want their people. They work for billionaire insiders to destroy all citizens, like everybody else. So if the people really hate Brexit, why not have a vote? Why not try some democracy? You’d clarify your support and get some real power to stop it.
“The Pentagon Wants More Control Over the News. What Could Go Wrong? (Taibbi)”
While I understand this, if the Pentagon wants to just ADD speech to the chorus, what’s the harm? Are they not allowed to speak? Does the Pentagon not have a Press Office already? Of course, I would only do this after reversing Obama’s law that allowed the government to use propaganda against their own people. That was in 2012; notice anything different in the pitch and demeanor of news since then?
P.S, “lunatic privacy-invading projects like LifeLog” is simply Facebook. Yes, lunatics. Yes, government. Yes, spying. Yes, to root out, imprison and destroy reporters and whistleblowers. “Facebook: Just Say Yes to Fascism Stomping on Your Face Forever™”
Why wait 4 years for Glyphosate? So they can reverse themselves later. But really, if you don’t want food shortages we already have, you’re going to have to allow for system planning and adjustments.
“Targeting the Tongass National Forest for Amazon-like Destruction (CP)”
Meanwhile, the people who don’t want this done, in London and San Francisco, haven’t torn up their parking lots and high rises to re-plant the trees that rightfully belong there. I wonder why. Could it be they want somebody ELSE to take the economic bat to the face instead of themselves? I mean, if they care, they CAN, and arguably SHOULD level Nantucket and stop mowing all those yards, spraying all those parking lots.
“The only reasonable explanation of the murky world of Trump and the Republican politicians (of Alaska and the rest of the country) is that they reject science.”
Don’t make stuff up. False, false, false. And the GOP doesn’t have a monopoly on being anti-science, from people who believe gender and DNA is something you choose each morning, or that, as discredited, the Amazon “creates oxygen” and is “the lungs of the earth”, or that electric cars magically don’t use coal and nuclear PLUS lithium, or that having destroyed earth, we can pop off to Mars and make it a garden.
It’s too long to get into, but America doesn’t have any of these “evangelical Christians” anymore, maybe 3%. Every church is still closing, attendance is still dropping fast as ever, and the beliefs of the few remaining attendees are for gay marriage, evolution, and gun control. It’s a coastal elite fantasy that these guys exist, because they didn’t bother to call anywhere, ask anyone, or get ‘facts.’ Same as all these new Nazis, by the way, the same people who voted for a black President named “Hussain.” Twice. Newflash: THEY DON’T EXIST. They’re LYING.
The Red-hats are hunters and farmers. So they’re idiots about nature while Blue-hairs from Brooklyn know all about it? “Do these politicians, including Trump, ever think about the real bad effects, ecological and social, of their actions?” Yes, they do, which is exactly the reason YOU won’t plant 200-year trees on Staten Island. YOU won’t re-start the old growth that was and belongs there, and only doesn’t re-grow due to YOUR constant effort with every manner of CO2-emitting gas-powered machines. Why? You know good and well your economy and your wealth will be destroyed. So you want ALASKA, rural OREGON, NEBRASKA to be destroyed on your behalf, so you can snoot down your nose and feel both rich AND good.
…But this is Socialism. WE (meaning ME) decide what WE will do with OUR (meaning YOUR) resources. And WE (meaning Me) always decide YOU take the hit and mine chromium in Siberia, while important priceless educated people like me live in a Dacha on the Black Sea coast, and am sadly force to hob-nob in Swiss shopping trips. You know, “For the People.”
I’m currently reading Jacques Elull’s book The Technological Society and sadly almost every headline here confirms his descriptions of the trajectory of technique perfectly. I am feeling a little bit hopeless from reading it since I see no way to change the course we are on. Assange is in the way of technique and so gets passified, Trump, Bolsonaro and Johnson are here to let it free to ravage the last natural resources, although Trumps fight with the Fed makes him a contradictory character (probably because of his impulsiveness which contrasts technique), Johnson wants to free technique from the backwardness of Europe which is cintraining things like bioscience proven by the article on Germanys ban on glyphosate, the Fed will win against Trump because the people always chooses the solution of the technicians in the end. Or has something happened that is breaking the steady pace forward by the technosphere? Is there a limit Elull did not forsee? Energy? Nuclear power is soon back in vouge for sure and the march towards the artificial continues unaffected by Trumps and Brexiteers. Is there even a point in resisting? Is there any chance we’ll have a free press when a state controlled one is so much more efficient? How long until people like us visiting The Automatic Earth are silenced, put into concentration camps and passified like Julian or silenced just by having no means of expression left. I guess my belief that resistance is right and worth it is intact but my hope of winning is more or less a thing of the past, a good thing perhaps.
I second that Neoh. John Day thank you too for your thoughtful posts. Both of you add to this very rich place called TAE.
I have no motivation to dig any farther.
https://www.cbp.gov/trade/remedies
https://www.cbp.gov/trade/remedies/301-certain-products-china
NEW On August 20, 2019, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) published a Modification of Section 301 Action in 84 FR 43304 introducing another imposition of additional tariffs on products of China with an annual trade value of approximately $300 billion which is referred to as Tranche 4. The tariff subheadings subject to additional duties under Tranche 4 are separated into two lists with different effective dates – Annex A contains the formal Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) language for list 1 and Annex B contains an informal description of the products in list 1. Annex C contains the formal HTSUS language for list 2 and Annex D contains an informal description of the products in list 2.
On August 30, 2019, in accordance with the specific direction of the President, the USTR published their determination to modify the action being taken in the Section 301 investigation by increasing the rate of additional duty from 10 to 15 percent for the products of China covered by the $300 billion tariff action (Tranche 4). See 84 FR 45821.CSMS # – UPDATE: Updated Information on Section 301 Trade Remedies to be Assessed on Certain Products of China; Fourth List of Products Subject to the Section 301 Remedy (Tranche 4)
CHINA
Over the years China has supplied trillions of dollars worth of goods to the US in exchange for IOUs [dollars] which can be created at will, basically they are just a few electrons on some computer storage.
Is this beneficial to China?
The US treatment of ZTE and Huawei have shown that under no circumstances should China rely on the US for components.
My question is : in the trade war does China have anything to lose?
Increasing tariffs means China can stop supplying ‘free’ goods to the US and gives a perfect excuse not to use US components.
Also, taking into account the military threats from the US, China must realise it can not rely on ANY trade with the US so should be looking at alternatives : BRI.
60% of the Global GDP is emerging markets. The other 40% [‘the West’] can only really afford to buy goods with debt.
May I ask: why are fat girls on the sidebar of this blog? I’m mystified. What on Earth would convince you to promote fat women as the next thang?
I sincerely thought this blog had integrity. And then there was the fat girl side bar invasion.
Wow.Incredible.
What are your thoughts on Trumps connections to Pieter Thiels survelance empire and his support of Neurobehavioral surveilance technology?
“Given recent reports on the Trump administration’s plan to create a new government agency to use “advanced technology” to identify “neurobehavioral signs” of “someone headed toward a violent explosive act” using data collected by consumer electronic devices, the picture painted by the technology currently being promoted and implemented under the guise of “keeping Americans safe” is deeply Orwellian. In fact, it points directly to the genesis of a far-reaching surveillance state far more extensive than anything yet seen in American history and it is being jointly developed by individuals connected to both American and Israeli intelligence.”
From Whitney Webbs latest article on Mint Press
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