Nicole Foss And Max Keiser Talk Greed, Fear, Downward Spirals And Risk Divisions
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Nicole Foss talks to Max Keiser in On The Edge at PressTV The Automatic Earth's Senior Editor Nicole Foss talks to Max Keiser again, this time on
[See the full post at: Nicole Foss And Max Keiser Talk Greed, Fear, Downward Spirals And Risk Divisions]A lucid and concise interview, as always by Stoneleigh. Poor Max just doesn’t get the deflationary argument as he tightly clutches his hyperinflation-hoard PMs blanket but he is a respectful and courteous host and lets Nicole have her say with a few transparent inflation-baiting comments thrown in here and there.
The inflationary position makes sense in this way – money is being printed, credit is being offered to the masses to be used as money, there is still talk of remove the US as the world currency of trade. If printing money and easy credit both increase the supply of money we should eventually see some inflation. If the EU and China stop using US dollars for trade and those dollars come home to rest the US has hyperinflation.
Although the Ponzi could collapse suddenly it might fizzle slowly. Lets say I know you owe me a sum to great to pay and I owe someone something to great for me to pay. Anyone calling in a debt only sets in motion their demise.
I believe we are in for decades of steady recline and need to adjust to that situation. What will be profitable in the future? Bankruptcy and supplying the military.
I like the deflationary position. I keep my job, make the same pay, and pay much less for consumer goods. I also like the idea of the difficulty in removing our (Canada’s) resources. Keep them in the ground and let the others use up their low hanging fruit. Maybe this deflation future will be good for Canada because once things are all over we still have resources to sell at a higher pricing.
20:00:
“When I say loss of purchasing power, I mean that people won’t have any dollars”I wish she would stop using the phrase “purchasing power” when she means WEALTH, or effective wealth. People not having dollars means (in a dollar-dominated context) that they are poor; it says nothing about the purchasing power of the dollars, which might be low, or high. I realize that one can properly refer to “purchasing power” of individuals (rather than money), but it confuses matters in discussions monetary. Better to stick with the main definition, i.e. having to do with the value of monetary instruments, and their relative ability to buy stuff, rather than individuals’ financial state or wealth.
PS: Nicole has a very nice, mellifluous voice, and a fine, dignified way of expressing herself.
Waiter: Good evening Madame. It’s so good to see you again. Our special this evening is a scrumptious juicy prime rib.
Madame: Thank you, but no. You may recall that I’m a vegetarian.
Waiter: Of course Madame, then surely you’ll want to try the Lamb.
Madame: Well….You know, since I don’t eat meat, I think I’ll simply have the steamed asparagus.
Waiter: Ah, Excellent choice Madame! And will you be having that with a side of pork loin or roast chicken?
William wrote: “I like the deflationary position. I keep my job, make the same pay, and pay much less for consumer goods”
Where did you get that idea? Jobs will be lost en masse. Pay and benefits will be cut. Prices will fall, but purchasing power falls faster (due to lost jobs and lack of access to credit), so everything becomes less affordable even as prices come down. Deflation is not something to look forward to.
On your energy comment, there isn’t any low hanging fruit in Canada or elsewhere (in comparison with what we are used to anyway).
There is one significant difference between the monetary systems in the U.S. and Europe: one is a currency issuer and the other a currency user. I know this is basic stuff, but nonetheless very important to understand. The currency issuer has the ability to inflate (print) its way out of the debt overhang, the currency user does not. The question then is will the currency issuer print its way out of the debt overhang?
That isn’t so easy to answer. In the U.S. there has obviously been incremental balance sheet repair at the consumer level through defaults and or paring back spending, to where now consumer debt levels are back to 2000 levels.
Is there a mechanism that would allow these consumers to ratchet up spending again? In other words can a dose of deregulation kick start easier credit terms circa 2002-2007 with a Romney election? I don’t know exactly what the future holds for those in the states, which should no be confused with what awaits those in Europe. I do think, however, that there are mechanisms in the U.S. that auger for a much slower collapse scenario (a muddle through event) than for those across the pond. I don’t see hyperinflation manifesting itself here but I sure don’t believe it’s axiomatic that we get a second financial collapse either.
Nicole said, “What we’re seeing is that the pie is shrinking; there’s not enough to go around. When the pie shrinks, when you have economic contraction, you also have a contraction of the trust horizon. What that means is that national and international institutions become stranded assets from a trust perspective. They lose political legitimacy;….”
That is a good argument for hyper inflation!!! If the population grows, and there is less stuff, there is less stuff per person, hence it is more valuable.
As confidence in institutions shrinks, it also damages their fiat currencies. This why you are seeing so much in the news lately about gold repatriation: Germany, Romania, Turkey, etc.
Pipefit,
It looks like you misunderstand the message Stoneleigh and Ilargi are making.
If money (i.e. credit) disappears at a faster rate than stuff does and its speed continues to drop, that does not lead to hyperinflation.
Hyperinflation is always a political choice and right now the guys and gals with all the dough do not want hyperinflation – only those with massive debts could ever wish for such and event.
I accept that Nicole’s textbook deflation on a global scale could happen, and have built that possibility into my mind, I just don’t think it is likely to happen in textbook fashion. That doubt centers on the things like the simultaneity of the events. The sudden, even over the course of a year, of the freeze of the global financial/trade/monetary systems.
The US has engineered a very strong ‘last Ponzi standing’ position. It is the attractor more and more of the capital of the global uber wealthy and it’s doors are open to them in person to. Even if the relative wealth among Americans declines for a significant plurality, America’s relative wealth seems likely to improve over the middle term. A situation which allows the likelihood of the continuation of the political system with the same players on top.
I have no standing so take my feelings with a grain of salt.
In addition, or tangentially, the issues transcend nations as corporations are becoming the new sovereigns or they are trying to be. As I sense things, it would be the collapse of corporate capitalism which would seal the global deflation and collapses of political systems and nations. As long as the corporate system remains intact then to my mind America remains intact in current recognizable form with the strong trend to political reaction and government expansion of police power.
Nicole, I’m going to go ahead and make the assumption that you practice what you preach and are sitting on some hard cash.
I don’t know if you’re comfortable in answering this question but I’m curious if there are any examples of goods/items/services/initiatives you are saving your dollars for during the long deflationary winter?
I think you are more self sufficient than me & my family by orders of magnitude, but it suddenly dawned on me that I’m saving all my cash for… I don’t know what? Obviously for food/water/energy to ride out the deflation, but surely there must be some things that you are not willing to pay the risk premium to own now but will be looking to pick up after prices collapse (unless you truly are 100% self-sufficient – if so, congrats). Just curious to know what those items/things/services might be and your reasoning behind it?
Also, any thoughts as to where the Canadian dollar should trade in relation to the US dollar? You’ve mentioned that the US dollar is clearly undervalued, and CDN/US parity doesn’t seem to be the norm. Just curious if you have an approximate target for where you think the Canadian dollar could fall to in relation to the US dollar before leveling out. If not, perhaps you can provide some details around the risks that non-US residents may face by sitting on physical US dollars (I am aware that US dollar accounts, at least in Canada, are not covered by CDIC – whatever good CDIC would do in a total financial collapse, of course!).
As always, I appreciate any feedback you can provide.
What a great interview, Thanks Stoneleigh.
Have finally come to understand your idea on how the relative value of a good goes up in a deflation to all but the holder of a good amount of cash. For some reason it was always hazy and escaped me, the part of the non cash purchaser having no money, until listening to this superb discussion.
Variable81 post=5939 wrote:
I think you are more self sufficient than me & my family by orders of magnitude, but it suddenly dawned on me that I’m saving all my cash for… I don’t know what? Obviously for food/water/energy to ride out the deflation, but surely there must be some things that you are not willing to pay the risk premium to own now but will be looking to pick up after prices collapse (unless you truly are 100% self-sufficient – if so, congrats). Just curious to know what those items/things/services might be and your reasoning behind it?Here’s part of our list:
– Solar panels. Not sure about battery bank, but Ilargi’s comments are on my mind.
– Electric boiler to replace current natural gas-fueled one. Replaced pump last year, so that should last.
– Electric heat pump water heater and parts, or else regular electric one if heat pump model doesn’t have good track record by then.
– More insulation.
– LED lamps.
– Hand-pump water filter. Probably sooner rather than later.
– Another rain barrel for overflow.
– Solar oven.
– CSA share for meat to keep local farmer in business. (We grow most of our own veggies, will add mushrooms and egg-layers next year. Maybe bees. Already invested in jump start of 40 cubic yards of compost, 20+ fruit trees, berry patches, hundreds of native plants to supply food for pollinators and other beneficial insects, and more. Our city lot is about 0.22 acre.)
– Parts for our induction stove. (Still need to ask our appliance repair shop guy which are most likely to fail.)
We’ve been looking for other ideas. Thanks for asking, V.
Nassim post=5936 wrote: Pipefit,
It looks like you misunderstand the message Stoneleigh and Ilargi are making.
If money (i.e. credit) disappears at a faster rate than stuff does and its speed continues to drop, that does not lead to hyperinflation.
Hyperinflation is always a political choice and right now the guys and gals with all the dough do not want hyperinflation – only those with massive debts could ever wish for such and event.
Hi Nassim. You really hit the nail on the head with your last half sentence. The USA Govt. has debts and unfunded liabilities of about $100 trillion (present worth), so they are quite bankrupt. They are running deficits (GAAP) of $5 trillion per year, and on any sort of economic weakness that increases greatly.
As Nicole stated so correctly, these governments are quickly losing legitimacy, and the currencies they issue are too. That is text book hyper inflation. Also, the rest of the world has $12 trillion in liquid dollar assets. The flight to quality is butting up against the massive fiscal deficits as well as the fact that the dollar is already overowned.
Having lived through a HI, I can attest that it is a loss of confidence in the currency. People were flocking into a foreign currency at any cost, and everyone was obsessed with converting the local currency into a foreign currency. The foreign currency was used as a secondary currency.
Bonus karma points to the commenter who guesses what the foreign currency was (this is not a trick question, BTW). Extra bonus points to anyone guesses what the currency of choice will be this time around, when HI hits the peripheral countries and the euro implodes into nothingness.Global competitive devaluation has kept currencies relative to each other more or less stable in spite of global monetization. This competitive monetization in part explains the rise in commodity and equity prices, and thus the inflationary movement subsequent to 2009. In other words, as long as the global CB’s continue to print in their various ways, prices can continue to rise, even in the face of deflationary forces. Anyone who argues against this fact has the price action of the last 3 plus years working against their argument. How much longer these inflationary events can persist is an open question. Given the austerian politics in Europe and the U.S. I’d wager we are getting close to the end of the line, however. Austerity is killing the golden goose in Europe. If that meme catches fire in the U.S. (fiscal cliff nonsense) then the tepid recovery here is all but over.
JZ wrote: “As long as the global CB’s continue to print in their various ways, prices can continue to rise, even in the face of deflationary forces. Anyone who argues against this fact has the price action of the last 3 plus years working against their argument. How much longer these inflationary events can persist is an open question. Given the austerian politics in Europe and the U.S. I’d wager we are getting close to the end of the line, however. Austerity is killing the golden goose in Europe. If that meme catches fire in the U.S. (fiscal cliff nonsense) then the tepid recovery here is all but over.”
The last three years years of rally have seen a temporary reflation. Prices rise during such periods, as a lagging indicator of the ‘heroic’ efforts made to prop up the money supply and keep the global ponzi scheme from crashing (yet). Prices in general may continue to rise for a while as the relation goes into reverse, since prices changes lag changes in the money supply. Prices will later follow to the downside though, virtually across the board. The essentials will receive relative price support however, as a larger percentage of a smaller money supply will be chasing them.
Several European countries have effectively gone over the cliff already, even though they are not yet formally in sovereign default. The dominos are falling one by one, and austerity will hasten the process. Austerity will spread elsewhere too.
What you see in the US is not a tepid recovery, but a temporary interlude of increasing confidence within a larger downtrend. That downtrend is very likely to resume soon. The US will continue to benefit from capital flight to safety from elsewhere, at least for a while. That will prop up the dollar and keep US interest rates lower than would otherwise have been (which doesn’t mean they can’t still rise).
Pipefit,
The flight to quality will pick up momentum dramatically once the downtrend really reasserts itself. We haven’t seen anything yet. That will benefit the US for a while. It is currently the best looking horse at the glue factory, which will count for something for a while. Of course default is inevitable at some point down the line, for most if not all developed countries. Loss of confidence in all fiat currencies is also coming eventually, but not yet. That won’t happen in all places at once. When the euro falls, and countries revert to their former currencies after defaulting on their debts, I do expect their former currencies not to be repositories of confidence. In such places, the time gap between deflation (ie credit collapse) and hyperinflation (ie actual currency printing into plummeting confidence) could be quite short. In places like the US it will be much longer – probably a decade or so as an educated guess, given that deflation and depression form a mutually reinforcing downward spiral that takes many years to play out. Other countries lie in between timewise.
Always like to read this again when I find myself doubting it’s validity (threat?), or if I at least begin believing otherwise, at the inducement of various bloggers and pundits, for they/we are only bloggers with a few interested listeners, and some google ads. But the man who delivered this speech is at the levers of the entire worlds economic systems. With a Pentagon full of henchmen, just in case there are any dissenters.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm
Age old epitaph over mission soup kitchens, “All Ye Who Fought The Fed, Enter Here.”
The choice, it seems to me, in whether it’s austerity on steroids, solving the problem rapidly, in a mass deleveraging event, instantly undermining political authority, (though it bought FDR three terms) or kicking the can toward the cliff, devaluing until it hits the canyon floor, is the Feds alone.
Of course, in this latter scenario, the kicker goes over the edge with the can, just later, buying time for the rats to feather their nests in their well defended compounds.
Do we really want to fight this cornered Leviathan? I’m set for the next while, either way, but if one is on the fringe and barely making ends meet, sans enough resources to make it at least 3 or 4 years with no income, it might be wise to read this link slowly and intently, seeking it’s hard message.
Especially read the fourth paragraph under the heading “Curing Deflation.”
As Hugh Hendry said at Buttonwood, para, ” $1 Trillion didn’t do it. $4.5 Trillion didn’t do it. But some $Trillion has to, eventually.”
Now, granted, cash is good to hold, in reasonably modest enough amounts to convert to necessities or inflation hedges, but if held in the latter situation, it burns real fast. Also, pretty hard to buy 40 acres of bottom land in Kansas with greenies without some escrow officer generating a 1099. Doesn’t matter that you can prove where it came from. It’s the legal expense of doing so that bites.
Damn, wish something would happen so I could finally stop walking this fence rail! Bonds and Bling, Bling and Bonds…Ghosts and Goblins, Happy Halloween, all.
Variable81 wrote: “I think you are more self sufficient than me & my family by orders of magnitude, but it suddenly dawned on me that I’m saving all my cash for… I don’t know what? Obviously for food/water/energy to ride out the deflation, but surely there must be some things that you are not willing to pay the risk premium to own now but will be looking to pick up after prices collapse (unless you truly are 100% self-sufficient – if so, congrats). Just curious to know what those items/things/services might be and your reasoning behind it?”
My approach was a bit different – I bought things like land before the worst of the boom, so I didn’t overpay by too much. I sold a home in the UK, which was highly inflated and bought in Canada where prices were much lower, so I could buy a farm here and kit it out with renewable energy for significantly less than I got for selling my British home. I have no debt on it, so I only have to find the money for property taxes. Now I don’t have to care what it’s worth, because it isn’t going to be sold.
There are still things I want to do – insulation, hot water radiators, back up manual well pump etc, but these things should be affordable up front. At my place it is mostly a case of continuing to expand production and the ability to preserve food. The energy infrastructure is already in place, and has been for several years. No grid tie, because I did it for the energy supply, not for a government payout.
Thanks Nicole.
With regards to renewables specifically – I’m nervous about the investment cost of say, a solar set-up with marine battery backups should any of the ‘tech’ fail and I not have the resources/skills to repair or replace the system. Perhaps there are more “low-tech” renewable solutions you would suggest instead?
Wood/timber is the #1 answer that comes to my mind. With land prices (hopefully) falling, my family has been watching for large properties with substantial hardwood resources – hoping that if we go this route, if all else fails at least we won’t freeze in the dark during the winter!
I’m also going to keep my eyes peeled on this site to see if I can find anything of interest: https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/
@variable,
What would be the market for timber or timber land in a world wide economic rout? I see why these local log decks are filling right now for export to Asia (Japan/China), but will these markets still demand wood products in future circumstances? And aren’t there enough houses already in North America?
@ Stoneleigh
Why risk it all?
The crushing penury of the future will bring horrific recriminations from TPTB. Central authorities will look for scapegoats at all layers of society. Yelling fire in the crowded theater with a web megaphone will make you low hanging fruit for the coming blame game. Aren’t you putting everything you’ve worked so hard to build in Canada at risk?
The web doesn’t forget. Do you ever think or worry about that?I hope this doesn’t sound like some kind of veiled threat on my part. It certainly isn’t meant to be one. It’s just a nagging question. Today’s civil society norms probably won’t survive in a world with a 90% collapse in real estate, commodity and stock markets.
The coming new pharaohs and their gestapo forces will be far too busy fighting real megaphones stirring real crowds in the streets and also busy dodging knifes on dark Palace corridors. Besides, does it strike you as TAE’s message has been taken seriously thus far? Ilargi certainly does not seem to think so:
“The world at large may not yet be ready to embrace the entire picture we have been painting at The Automatic Earth, and that would perhaps be too much to expect given that our picture is substantially different from the one offered by the vast majority of “opinion makers”, but step by step we do seem to be getting through.”That is not to say that the future pharaohs, once firmly established, might not include (in some temperate climate, certainly not in Canada -pharaohs and cold climate don’t mix very well, apparently, except in Siberia) some more extreme and lower EROEI forms of keeping the industrial dream alive: scapegoating and loss of property and/or debt slavery, but that is in the “modestly interesting future” as Ilargi wisely put it in a previous post, and we’d have to make it to that future first.
Thank you – exactly my point about wood/timber.
@Viscount St. Albans,
Not to speak for Stoneleigh, but I might suggest a little something called “integrity”.
I recognize there are many “lizard brain” individuals out there who will say whatever is necessary to optimize their situation in life.
But some people just can’t help but see something wrong and want to speak truth to power, call a spade a spade, etc. They accept the consequences of their actions because they choose to live a life of values (or at least less malleable ethics).
Cheers.
Thanks for the response, Stoneleigh.
The herd seems to be getting happier though:
Viscount St Albans,
I know the tendency will be to shoot the messenger, so to speak, but I couldn’t sleep at night if I didn’t warn people.
JZ,
The herd is quite happy because we’re near the peak of the rally. Greed/optimism has been the driver for the last 3 years, be fear/pessimism will be the driver over the next few. It starts small but builds over time. I’m looking at where we’ve come from, where we’re going, and trying to anticipate trend changes.
Escape From New York City – A Mass Exodus Begins Now https://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/11/escape-from-new-york-city-mass-exodus.html
No comments, except: see my signature.
“It’s wood for the fire, Professor. Keep warm and cook dinner.”
Oh, around here fire wood is to burn on Christmas Eve, woodland/timberland is building material/agriculture. You are talking about wooded acreage as a fuel source. Can’t imagine it competing with coal or natural gas, but I haven’t done the numbers.
Heating with wood is a pretty low EROEI in my experience, what with saw chains, splitters, fuel etc. Unless the mill here is awash in mill ends, and I can get them to load the truck. Besides, every time I put down the felling axe, it stops working.
As for living in the boonies, on acreage, fine if you have a lot of expendable, dependable income (trust? annuity? doubloons?) to maintain that luxury. Or, if it was passed down in the family and you have spent a lot of time growing up on it and learning to work it.
Seems pretty hard on those in between. And my guess is, if the subsidies ever fail, the going is going to be even tougher on the established. (Think California tax dodge vineyards and Iowa corn ethanol credits).
Ever consider putting together some ideas to survive this “predicted” malaise right in your own town? That’s my plan. I can always split if need be. But what if it works out OK? No one is an island. Sure, the well heeled can buy their survival farms, but they need us to maintain them. I would even think, in a vote over who gets cut off first, those 20 or so “compounders” out in east county vs. the towns folk here in the county seat…well.
p01,
Heard somewhere by some credentialed guru, the only thing made any sense to me so far, “The technology to clean up Fukushima does not exist today.”
So, they’re firing up all the other plants.
Rock on.
Variable, “Perhaps there are more “low-tech” renewable solutions you would suggest instead?”
Perhaps a dose of Clare Wolfe is in order. Always been fun these past decades. https://www.backwoodshome.com/
Might help find 101 things to do when it’s too soon to shoot the bastards 😉
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