Oct 212024
 
 October 21, 2024  Posted by at 8:27 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  62 Responses »


David Hockney Portrait of an Artist (Pool with Two Figures) 1972

 

Market ‘Convinced’ Trump Will Win – Druckenmiller (RT)
Trump Promises To Unleash ‘America’s New Golden Age’ (JTN)
Trump Considers No Taxes For Police Officers, Firefighters And Military (ZH)
Trump Claims He Threatened Putin With Strike On Moscow (RT)
In Search of Accountability for Anti-Trump Hoaxes (TON)
Americans Getting Wise To ‘Propaganda Machine’ – Musk (RT)
The Atlantic Mocked For ‘Trump Is Hitler’ Hit-Piece (RT)
Elon Musk Launches Million-Dollar-A-Day Giveaway For Petition Signers (ZH)
Germany and UK To Sign ‘Historic’ Defense Pact – Sunday Times (RT)
Germany’s Scholz Shoots Down Ukraine’s ‘Victory Plan’ (RT)
Is Russia Finally Acknowledging Reality? (Paul Craig Roberts)
Boeing Explores Asset Sales In Potential Shrinking Of Corporate Footprint (ZH)
No, Trump Should Not Sue CBS (Turley)
Gold, Kamala, Trump, Control, Cash, Murder, Water – Austin Fitts (USAW)
‘It’s Like We’re Watching Auschwitz on TikTok’ (Gabor Maté)
Julian Would Not Have Survived Without Plea Deal – Assange’s Father (RT)
Pentagon Says There is No Hard Evidence of Aliens Visiting Earth (Sp.)

 

 

 

 

O’Leary

Lawfare

Netscape
https://twitter.com/i/status/1847827491601482109

Pinion
https://twitter.com/i/status/1847670411019911179

Margin
https://twitter.com/i/status/1847806428687585451

RFK
https://twitter.com/i/status/1847416261312913877

Voting

Broadband
https://twitter.com/i/status/1847801842337796565

1M
https://twitter.com/i/status/1847858776520687678

 

 

 

 

Coming from a Soros man…

Market ‘Convinced’ Trump Will Win – Druckenmiller (RT)

Markets have been pricing in a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming US presidential election, American billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller has said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. The founder of the Duquesne Family Office investment firm and hedge fund manager specified that the trend is clearly visible in bank stocks, crypto and even in the performance of the former president’s social media company Trump Media & Technology Group. “I would have to guess Trump is the favorite to win the election,” Druckenmiller told the news channel on Wednesday, emphasizing that the market has seemed “very convinced Trump is going to win” over the past 12 days.

Druckenmiller, who managed money for billionaire political activist and Democrat mega-donor George Soros for more than a decade, also commented on how a Trump victory would play out if the Republicans win Congress. According to him, it’s “extremely unlikely” that the Democrats will gain control of Congress, even if Kamala Harris makes it to the Oval Office. The investor, who funded the primary campaign of former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley against Trump earlier this year, also said that equities may be troubled for three to six months in the event of a so-called blue sweep, when the Democrats win the Presidency, the Senate and the House of representatives. Druckenmiller added that a red sweep scenario is “probably more likely than a Trump presidency with a blue Congress.”

“Personally, I think anybody that votes for Trump is probably not going to change their ballot for a Democrat in Congress,” he added. The money manager also expects the Fed to be far more hawkish than it would be under a Harris administration. He noted that the jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points in September was a mistake, adding that his investment firm shorted bonds, betting that the obligation price would fall, after the announcement. Druckenmiller stressed that the market needs to temper its expectations about the pace and extent of central-bank easing.

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“Your vote will decide whether we give up on America, or whether we save America..”

Trump Promises To Unleash ‘America’s New Golden Age’ (JTN)

Rising in the polls, former President Donald Trump channeled some Ronald Reagan-like optimism while rallying voters in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, promising Saturday evening that if he is elected he would unleash “America’s New Golden Age.” “This election is a choice between whether we will have four more years of failure and disaster, or whether we will begin the four greatest years in the history of our country,” Trump told the crowd in Latrobe, Pa. “Your vote will decide whether we give up on America, or whether we save America,” he added. Trump rattled off the policy changes he would sweep into Washington, from tax cuts and regulatory reform to securing the border and shrinking government. “With your support, we will bring back our nation’s strength, dominance, prosperity, and pride,” he said. “This will be America’s New Golden Age. “One hundred years from now, the presidential election of 2024 will be looked upon as America’s greatest victory.”

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“..absent a Republican sweep most of Trump’s promises will end up as being just hot air..”

Trump Considers No Taxes For Police Officers, Firefighters And Military (ZH)

The race to shock and awe with the greatest number of tax cuts ahead of the November 5 election is nearing its climax. Donald Trump said he’d consider exempting police officers, firefighters, active duty military and veterans from paying taxes, the Republican nominee’s latest campaign trail idea to deliver tax breaks to key groups of supporters. “It’s something I would think about,” Trump said in response to a question about excluding first responders and military members from tax bills on an online show Maintaining with Tyrus that aired Friday. “You’re like my tax person there, but yeah. I mean something has to be done,” he said. “It’s almost an incentive to where you can get people interested.” The idea to exempt members of the military and first responders from taxation is the latest in a long list of tax proposals Trump has talked about while campaigning against Kamala Harris.

He’s pledged to i) eliminate taxes on tipped wages, ii) taxes on overtime pay and iii) taxes on Social Security benefits. To be sure, Trump didn’t give any more details about the service member tax exclusion, and any such ideas would require congressional approval in order to become law, which is why absent a Republican sweep most of Trump’s promises will end up as being just hot air. The no-taxes-on-military-and-first-responders idea could be among the largest new tax cuts he’s discussed to date, exempting more than 20 million people from federal tax payments. According to Bloomberg, there are about 18 million living veterans in the US, roughly 1.3 million active duty troops, approximately 1 million police offers in the US and more than 300,000 professional firefighters, according to several estimates. The US does offer some broad tax exemption to military members, but that is largely limited to people who are serving in active combat zones.

Over the last several months, Trump has rolled out a steady drumbeat of politically beneficial tax cut plans focused on key election constituencies, as a way to appeal to voters in an extremely tight election — particularly, low-and-middle-income Americans frustrated by high prices. The Republican nominee has thrown out such a wide range of tax proposals that even his own advisers are unsure about which ones he intends to enact if elected. Now that it is clear that neither candidate gives a rat’s ass about the war-time US budget deficit which just hit a mindblowing 6% of GDP despite US GDP allegedly growing at a 3%+ rate…… Trump it taking his tax break promises to the limit while also campaigning on extending the tax cut first passed when he was president. Major portions of that law, including lower tax brackets for households and deductions for small businesses, are set to expire at the end of 2025.

Trump has also pledged to further lower the corporate rate to 15% from 21% and expand the state and local tax deduction, a write-off popular in New York and California where Republicans face close House elections to keep their majority in the chamber. Economists have warned that his policy portfolio may balloon the federal debt, adding as much as $15 trillion to the debt over the next decade, according to an estimate from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Trump contends that economic growth and energy production would offset the loss in tax revenue.

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“You’re going to be hit so hard, and I’m going to take those f**king domes right off your head..”

Trump Claims He Threatened Putin With Strike On Moscow (RT)

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has claimed that he threatened to strike Moscow if Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an attack on Ukraine. Asked in a wide-ranging interview with the Wall Street Journal on Friday whether he would use military force to respond to a potential blockade of Taiwan by Beijing, Trump said he would not have to, as his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, “respects me and he knows I’m f**king crazy.” Pivoting to Russia, Trump said the same is true of Putin, who he claimed to have an excellent relationship with. He added that at one point, he told him:

“Vladimir, if you go after Ukraine, I am going to hit you so hard, you’re not even going to believe it. I’m going to hit you right in the middle of fricking Moscow… We’re friends. I don’t want to do it, but I have no choice.” According to the former president, Putin reacted with disbelief, saying “no way.” “Way,” Trump responded. “You’re going to be hit so hard, and I’m going to take those f**king domes right off your head,” he reportedly said, apparently referring to the Russian leader’s Kremlin residence. Trump’s term in office expired in early 2021, more than a year before the start of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine.

Putin last spoke with Trump in 2020, according to public records. American journalist Bob Woodward, however, claimed that the two have had “maybe as many as seven” conversations since Trump left the White House. Both the Kremlin and the Trump campaign have denied the claim. The former US president has repeatedly said that the Russia-Ukraine conflict would not have happened had he been in office, and has vowed to end it within 24 hours if elected. While he provided few details on a potential peace plan, his running mate, J.D. Vance, said Trump could start talks with Russia, Ukraine, and European stakeholders to establish a demilitarized zone along the current front line, with Kiev agreeing to stay out of NATO.

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“A potential new Trump administration must act swiftly to hold accountable those who perpetrated anti-Trump scams.”

In Search of Accountability for Anti-Trump Hoaxes (TON)

It may be premature to start contemplating the implications of a potential Trump victory on November 5. Unfortunately, for certain issues, it may already be too late. This is because time is of the essence when it comes to holding individuals accountable for the numerous frauds and acts of treachery that characterized much of President Trump’s first four years in office. More specifically, federal law has a five-year statute of limitations, preventing prosecution for actions committed more than five years ago. However, urgent accountability is needed to ensure that those who defrauded the American public in their pursuit of Trump do not escape punishment. Democrats and their allies are acutely aware of the five-year time limit.

This is evident in their swift action to prosecute Twitter user Douglas Mackey for creating a meme in 2016 that jokingly encouraged Hillary Clinton voters to text in their votes. As the statute of limitations on Mackey’s “crimes” was set to lapse in 2021, Democrats, aided by “Republican” appointee Seth DuCharme, were locked and loaded to file charges as soon as Biden assumed the presidency. Republicans would do well do follow this example, albeit for actual crimes. Accountability is needed in order to prevent renewed and repeated treachery. We have examined aspects of three separate scams that may still fall within the five-year statute of limitations period by the time Trump assumes office on January 20, 2025, should he win the election.

Russiagate
The first area we examined is Russiagate, which, given that it is now almost nine years old, presents unique challenges in terms of holding anyone accountable. Russiagate originated as a Clinton campaign operation in early 2016. Of course, a dirty tricks campaign is not a crime in itself. Even lying to the media, as the Clinton campaign did repeatedly in its attempts to smear Trump as a Russian agent, is not a crime. Instead, our focus is on government actors. The first documented instance of government actors co-opting the Russiagate narrative occurred when the FBI received the fraudulent Steele dossier on July 5, 2016. This was soon followed by various other actions, such as opening the sham Crossfire Hurricane investigation and spying on several members of the Trump campaign team. However, all these actions are now over eight years old and fall outside the statute of limitations. Unfortunately, even the most egregious aspect of the Russiagate hoax—the fraudulent Intelligence Community Assessment that President Obama used to undermine the incoming Trump administration—also falls outside the statute of limitations. Subsequent actions involving corrupt FBI officials, such as Peter Strzok, James Comey, and Andrew McCabe, likewise fall outside the statute of limitations. In fact, all these individuals were fired more than five years ago.[..]

Ukraine Impeachment Hoax
It is not coincidental that Trump’s first impeachment, on charges of allegedly failing to send weapons to Ukraine, began one day after Robert Mueller testified before Congress that there was no Russian collusion. One hoax simply replaced another. On July 25, 2019, Trump had his infamous conversation with Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky. The overarching premise of the impeachment scheme was to accuse Trump of withholding military aid to Ukraine, despite the fact that he had not done so. This allegation stemmed from a distorted interpretation of Trump’s phone call with Zelensky. It was claimed that Trump had offered a quid pro quo, suggesting that Zelensky investigate alleged corruption involving the Biden family in exchange for military assistance. However, when the actual transcript of the phone call was released in September 2019, it became clear that this characterization was false. Nevertheless, by that time, the impeachment narrative against Trump was already in full swing, and neither the Democrats nor the media were deterred by the truth.

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“..in the US people are starting to realize that the legacy media is just a propaganda machine..”

Americans Getting Wise To ‘Propaganda Machine’ – Musk (RT)

A victory for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris could usher in a crackdown on freedom of speech in the US, tech billionaire Elon Musk has warned. Speaking at a rally for Republican candidate Donald Trump in Pennsylvania on Saturday, the Tesla and X CEO was asked what kind of administration he would expect to see from Harris if she wins the November election. “We’ll see a lot of censorship under a sort of Kamala regime. Kamala is really just a puppet, frankly. If the teleprompter breaks she doesn’t know what to say,” Musk said, adding that he prefers to think of the administration as a “big government machine” that puts on a certain face to appeal to voters. In contrast, the tycoon said he finds claims that Trump is “a danger to democracy” to be “bizarre and hypocritical,” given that US President Joe Biden was “removed” from the race in an “incredibly undemocratic” fashion.

“There’s clearly a strong a strong push for censorship under the guise of fighting disinformation. But disinformation is really a propaganda word. Who’s going to decide what disinformation is? The government? That’s crazy,” Musk stated. However, the billionaire said he remains optimistic about a shift in the national mindset – as more Americans refuse to believe “everything the media tells you.” “Actually, in the US people are starting to realize that the legacy media is just a propaganda machine,” he argued, while the European audience “still thinks the news is real.” In June 2022, Harris spearheaded the creation of the White House Task Force to Address Online Harassment and Abuse, with a focus on protecting women and the LGBTQ community.

In 2019, the US vice president labeled social media platforms as purveyors of “hate” and “misinformation” and said she wanted to hold them accountable for the content they spread. Musk has repeatedly criticized the US government for overreach and attempts to introduce what he sees as excessive content moderation. While the mogul previously positioned himself as politically neutral, he publicly endorsed Donald Trump after the former president survived an assassination attempt in July, donating tens of millions of dollars to his campaign. The Republican, if he wins, has promised to create a new government post called ‘secretary of cost-cutting’ tailored specifically for Musk.

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“..you desperately decide to call him all the bad names at once.”

The Atlantic Mocked For ‘Trump Is Hitler’ Hit-Piece (RT)

The Atlantic magazine and its staff writer Anne Applebaum have faced widespread criticism after publishing an op-ed that compares former US President Donald Trump to infamous dictators like Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin, and Benito Mussolini. The article, which claims Trump is borrowing rhetoric from some of the 20th century’s most notorious leaders, has been ridiculed online, particularly by pro-Trump commenters and political figures. Some have also drawn attention to Applebaum’s links to the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a CIA cutout. The controversy erupted after Applebaum, a staff writer for The Atlantic and a member of the board of NED, argued that Trump’s use of terms like “vermin” to describe his opponents and his references to “criminal illegal immigrants as animals” echoed the dehumanizing language of the named dictators.

The headline of her article –”Trump Is Speaking Like Hitler, Stalin, and Mussolini– ignited a flurry of backlash. The Trump campaign dismissed the piece as “fake news by a third-rate media outlet,” while figures on social media openly mocked Applebaum and the magazine. Among the first to respond was journalist Glenn Greenwald, who commented, “When you spend eight years calling a person every bad name you can think of—including Hitler—and it doesn’t work, so you desperately decide to call him all the bad names at once.” Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX and Tesla, also ridiculed the piece, responding with “I can’t stop laughing.” British conservative commenter Ben Kew chimed in as well, mocking The Atlantic’s editorial process: “I love the idea that the editors sat around and thought, ‘Let’s come up with a headline for Anne Applebaum’s piece that will really scare the average voter.’”

Critics of Applebaum also pointed to her connections to the NED, a government-funded organization with links to US intelligence operations. Applebaum’s critics, including journalist Mike Benz, accused her of pushing a pro-intelligence agenda. “Anne Applebaum is on the board of directors for the most notorious CIA cut-out in US history,” Benz stated, suggesting her opinion pieces often align with US national security interests. NED is funded by the US State Department to do, in the words of its founder, Carl Gershman, what “was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA.” In recent years, the NED helped foment the 2014 Maidan coup in Ukraine, sponsored meetings of anti-Beijing officials and delegates in Taiwan, and financed a UK-based organization working to drive right-wing American news outlets out of business.

Her published opinions and those of the US national security state rarely diverge. Writing for the Atlantic, she has advocated regime change in Russia, accused Trump of planning to “abandon” Ukraine and NATO, and accused Musk of “weakness” and “arrogance” over his refusal to help Kiev’s forces guide kamikaze drones into Russian naval targets in Crimea. Despite her prominent role at NED, she has denied any personal links to the CIA. Nonetheless, critics highlight the close alignment of her views with US foreign policy initiatives. The Atlantic has yet to respond to the widespread backlash against the article.

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“It is a federal crime to pay people with the intention of inducing or rewarding them to cast a vote or to get registered, an offense punishable by prison time.”

Elon Musk Launches Million-Dollar-A-Day Giveaway For Petition Signers (ZH)

Elon Musk continued his town hall tour through the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania on Saturday evening, this time in the working-class town of Harrisburg. Speaking to thousands packed inside a megachurch – formerly AMP Incorporated’s headquarters – Musk walked onto the stage with rock-n-roll blasting in the background. Almost immediately, he announced a $1 million-a-day giveaway. The promotion began on Saturday night. It runs until November’s election and is open to anyone who signs his online petition supporting the US Constitution. “One of the challenges we’re having is, like, how do we get people to know about this petition?” Musk told the audience of blue-collar workers, many of whom were youngsters with families, adding, “This news, I think, is going to really fly.” On X, Musk wrote, “The goal of the $1M/day prize is to maximize awareness of our petition to support The Constitution.”

Musk’s political action organization, America PAC, has been responsible for the town hall events and will be doling out a million dollars daily to anyone who signs the petition. X user DogeDesigner noted, “Elon Musk really knows how to get legacy media to promote for free.” The petition Musk has asked people to sign reads: “The First and Second Amendments guarantee freedom of speech and the right to bear arms. By signing below, I am pledging my support for the First and Second Amendments.” “Our goal is to get 1 million registered voters in swing states to sign in support of the Constitution, especially freedom of speech and the right to bear arms. This program is exclusively open to registered voters in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Expires October 21,” the petition said.

Google Trends data shows that searches for “Elon Musk petition” have surged nationwide. The Wall Street Journal commented on Musk’s announcement: “It is a federal crime to pay people with the intention of inducing or rewarding them to cast a vote or to get registered, an offense punishable by prison time.” According to OpenSecrets, America PAC has spent more than $119 million during the 2024 election cycle. Meanwhile…

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“..paving the way for both nations to step up their military drills near Russia’s borders..”

Germany and UK To Sign ‘Historic’ Defense Pact – Sunday Times (RT)

The UK and Germany will sign a bilateral defense agreement this week, paving the way for both nations to step up their military drills near Russia’s borders, The Sunday Times has reported. Under the terms of the deal, Britain and Germany will cooperate on arms procurement and development, with the agreement serving as a “first step” for a larger deal between the UK and EU next year, the British newspaper reported. The pact “is expected to enable British and German forces to conduct joint military exercises on NATO’s eastern border with Russia, most probably in Estonia and Lithuania,” The Times noted, without offering further explanation.

Britain and Germany already take part in NATO exercises, such as this year’s ‘Steadfast Defender’ drills. Conducted near Russia’s western borders, ‘Steadfast Defender’ involved 90,000 troops from all 32 NATO states, and was perceived in Moscow as open preparation for “a potential armed clash with Russia.” In addition to these multilateral exercises, Germany already takes part in smaller-scale bilateral exercises, such as Germany’s ‘Grand Quadriga’ drills with Lithuania earlier this year, and its ‘Baltic Tiger’ maneuvers with Estonia in 2022. The Times’ article suggests that Britain could join these exercises once the new deal is signed.

British Defense Secretary John Healey told the newspaper that the deal is modeled on the 2010 Lancaster House agreement between the UK and France. Under this agreement, Britain and France pledge to create a joint expeditionary force to take part in military drills, to collaborate on developing drones and submarine technology, and to share nuclear-weapons data with each other. During a two-day NATO summit in Brussels this week, Healey also announced that British troops stationed in Estonia will receive new drone warfare equipment and training, and that the UK will work with Germany, France, Poland and Italy to create new long-range missiles for Ukraine.

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..“fear of war in Europe” was the top concern (81%) of young Germans..”

Germany’s Scholz Shoots Down Ukraine’s ‘Victory Plan’ (RT)

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has poured cold water on Vladimir Zelensky’s ‘victory plan’, refusing to acquiesce to some of its key points. He argued that the EU has a responsibility to ensure that the conflict in Ukraine does not become a war between Russia and NATO. On Wednesday, Zelensky presented his vision to the Ukrainian parliament, acknowledging that its success largely depends on Kiev’s Western backers. The plan consists of eight points, three of which are classified. Among the publicly disclosed points are a demand that Ukraine be immediately admitted into NATO. Secondly, Kiev wants its Western backers to lift all restrictions on the use of long-range missiles, including strikes against targets deep inside Russia’s internationally recognized territory.

Speaking to reporters following the EU summit in Brussels on Thursday, Scholz said that “Germany’s stance on the issues that are touched upon” in Zelensky’s plan remain the same. The chancellor added that it is his duty to prevent the Ukraine conflict from escalating into a full-blown war between NATO and Russia. With respect to Ukraine’s repeated requests for German-made Taurus long-range missiles, Scholz reiterated that he did not “deem this the right supply – and this still holds.” The German chancellor also put the brakes on Zelensky’s demand for fast-track NATO membership, pointing to the bloc’s July summit in Washington where proponents of quick membership were not able to convince skeptics, including the US and Germany. According to Scholz, the general consensus reached at the gathering was merely that Ukraine was irreversibly on its way to full membership at some unspecified point in the future when certain conditions were met.

Earlier this month, the German media reported that Zelesnky had attempted to make Scholz change his mind during the Ukrainian leader’s European tour last week, but failed. Commenting on Zelensky’s plan on Wednesday, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova dismissed it as a “set of incoherent slogans” and a “plan for the misfortune of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, for his part, called on the Ukrainian leadership to “sober up.” Against this backdrop, a recently published survey by the British multinational oil and gas company Shell indicated that “fear of war in Europe” was the top concern (81%) of young Germans.

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“Putin understands that war between Washington and Russia means end times, and he wants to avoid that at all costs..”

Is Russia Finally Acknowledging Reality? (Paul Craig Roberts)

I see Putin as a successful leader. He has rescued Russia from demoralization from the Soviet collapse, which resulted in a once powerful state being dismembered, looted and embarrassed by its Jewish oligarchs and Washington. Putin has rebuilt the Russian economy, despite Washington’s sanctions and Putin’s incompetent central bank director. Putin has restored Russian pride, the Russian family, and civil morality. He is a rare successful leader. But as a war leader he has been Putin the Unready, caught off guard by the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia organized by Washington, by Washington’s overthrow of the Ukrainian government, and by the West’s response to his Special Military Operation in Donbas. Putin has accepted insult after insult, provocation after provocation, thus ever-widening the conflict and inviting more conflicts elsewhere as in the Middle East.

It is unclear to me why Putin accepted Washington’s overthrow of the Ukrainian government. Did he simply lack the military resources to prevent it, or was he unable to understand what was happening? The conflict that occurred 8 years later was the consequence of Putin’s failure to read the writing on the wall. Perhaps he was constrained by the treasonous class, the worshipers of the West, traitors I refer to as “Atlanticist Integrationists.” These traitors are now referred to in Russia as “the Fifth Column.” For the most part they are gone, except for the Russian central bank director, who continues to do Russia more harm than the West does. I think the explanation of Putin’s behavior is that Putin understands that war between Washington and Russia means end times, and he wants to avoid that at all costs. Thus, his willingness to accept endless insults and provocations.

But what Putin does not seem to understand is that Washington is relentless in its efforts to impose its agenda of Washington’s hegemony, and that Russia, China and Iran are obstacles in the way of this agenda and, therefore, are to be eliminated. Putin might regard such an agenda as preposterous, but it is nevertheless the agenda. Washington is yet to announce the abandonment of the Wolfowitz Doctrine of American hegemony and unilateralism. As long as this is Washington’s agenda, no understanding signed with Washington has any meaning. As long as Putin continues to accept Washington’s aggression, the aggression will continue. Putin’s acceptance of provocations have gone so far that the West no longer believes his threats. Both the outgoing and incoming NATO Secretary Generals said that we need pay no attention to whatever Putin says as he never means it. Did Putin understand that this was the price of endlessly accepting provocations? Did he understand that he was destroying the credibility of his warnings?

Putin, trying to avoid war, has repeated the same mistake in the Middle East. I was heartened when suddenly Putin showed proactive capability and quickly moved the Russian Air Force into Syria, thus preventing the American war criminal, Obama, from invading Syria. I concluded, wrongly, that Russia had decided to bring Washington’s aggression to a halt. But it was only a one time deal. Putin, trying to avoid war by leaving Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah without air protection, achieved the opposite–the onset of war. Now, according to reports, Putin is scrambling to get air protection to Iran before Israel blows up Iran’s peaceful nuclear reactors, thus spreading radiation over wide areas of Russia. Putin and the Russian General Staff failed to comprehend what happens in the absence of countervailing power. The result is not a damper put on war but the outbreak of war, with Putin now having to issue hard warnings to Israel, warnings that might have no credibility in light of Putin’s past failure to enforce red lines.

Awareness is descending on Russia that the existence of Ukraine as an independent country is an existential threat to Russia. The liberation of Donbas does not demilitarize and deNazify Ukraine or replace Ukraine’s puppet government with an independent one. Will the Russian public and the Russian General Staff permit Putin to agree to end the war simply on the basis of the liberation of Donbas, or will the Russian public and the General Staff insist that Ukraine’s existence is an existential threat to Russia’s existence and insist that the war continue until Ukraine is again a province of Russia? The Russian Fifth Column is busy at work disputing Zbigniew Brzezinski’s conclusion that Russia cannot be a great power if Ukraine is not part of Russia’s sphere of influence. Will the General Staff and the Russian population agree with the Fifth Column or with Brzezinski? If they agree with Brzezinski, they will object to Putin merely kicking the can down the road with a peace deal. It will be unfortunate if Putin’s insistence on peace destabilizes Russia.

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“..SpaceX dominates rocket launches and leads the space race in this solar system..”

Boeing Explores Asset Sales In Potential Shrinking Of Corporate Footprint (ZH)

The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday morning that Boeing is mulling over asset sales to raise cash levels for its struggling business. On Saturday, Boeing and union heads reached a tentative labor contract agreement that could soon end the money-draining months-long labor strike, while early last week, the planemaker filed a $25 billion shelf registration to provide a “variety of capital options as needed to support the company’s balance sheet over a three-year period.” The new report cites a person familiar with a recent discussion between Boeing’s board and executives at its headquarters in Arlington, Virginia. The meeting centered around potential asset sales, as executives and board members combed through internal reports on the state of each of the planemaker’s units.

Just weeks ago, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg told employees, “We need to be clear-eyed about the work we face,” adding, “We also need to focus our resources on performing and innovating in the areas that are core to who we are.” Ortberg replaced Dave Calhoun as the president and CEO of Boeing on August 8. He is expected to comment publicly for the first time as CEO on Wednesday, following the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers’ vote on the new labor contract. The company estimated the strike to cost $1 billion. It warned of a $6 billion quarterly loss for the period ending September 30. On Tuesday, just days after Boeing announced plans to cut 10% of its workforce due to intensifying financial pressure, such as dwindling cash reserves and mounting risk of a credit downgrade, as well as prolonged strike, the beleaguered planemaker filed a $25 billion shelf registration.

“This universal shelf registration provides flexibility for the company to seek a variety of capital options as needed to support the company’s balance sheet over a three-year period,” Boeing wrote in the filing. Separately, Boeing entered into a $10 billion “supplemental credit agreement” with a consortium of lenders. It noted that the credit facility provides “additional short-term access to liquidity as we navigate through a challenging environment,” adding that it has not drawn down on this facility or its existing credit revolver. Boeing has already considered selling its rocket-launching joint venture, United Launch Alliance, with Lockheed Martin to Sierra Space for $2-$3 billion. Also, Boeing’s space division is in crisis following the malfunctioning of the Starliner spacecraft.

Separately, Boeing’s competitor, Airbus, laid off 2,500 jobs in its space division, as Elon Musk’s SpaceX dominates rocket launches and leads the space race in this solar system. Boeing’s obsession (Wall Street’s obsession) with DEI, climate, and gender justice ultimately dealt the fatal blow. It’s time to refocus on the fundamentals, like building planes that actually stay in the sky. Is that a hard ask, Boeing?

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“There is no lawsuit that could do the damage that the mainstream media is doing to itself..”

No, Trump Should Not Sue CBS (Turley)

In an interview with podcast host Dan Bongino, former President Trump said he “thinks” he will sue CBS after it was found to have edited an interview with Vice President Kamala Harris, only the latest such allegation against mainstream media. I hope that he will think again about this latest threat of litigation. I agree with the criticism of the media, including CBS, in the bias shown in the election. However, such a lawsuit would be legally groundless, in my view. If it is any solace, the media is doing enough damage to itself. Many have criticized CBS for its editing of the interview with journalist Bill Whitaker after the network shortened portions of Harris’s answer to a question about the war in Gaza in its initial broadcast. It later provided a full transcript of her remarks online. (For full disclosure, I worked twice under contract with CBS as a legal analyst).

Trump, however, took the matter further in his interview, stating, “[s]o I think I’m going to sue them actually. I think so. No, you know what, they can’t defend it and if they do and even if they win it’s going to be very embarrassing.” Such a lawsuit would fail. The media is allowed to engage in such editing. Indeed, bias itself is not generally actionable. Moreover, there were moments where Whitaker did press Harris in sharp contrast to most of her interviews on shows like The View, Howard Stern’s SiriusXM show, as well as on Late Night with Stephen Colbert. There were some tough moments where Whitaker pushed Harris to give more than soundbite answers. I have been a vocal critic of the mainstream media for its embracing of what I refer to as “advocacy journalism” in my book, The Indispensable Right.

Many in this country view mainstream media as a de facto state media due to the bias shown against Trump and for Democratic talking points. Indeed, the mantra “Let’s Go Brandon!” was embraced by millions as a criticism of the media as much as it was a criticism of President Biden. However, the threats of harassing lawsuits destroys any moral high ground for Trump. It is also entirely unnecessary. As I wrote this weekend, “journalism has become a ship of fools who increasingly write for each other rather than the dwindling numbers of actual readers.”

CBS was widely criticized for the performance of Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan as moderators in the presidential debate. That includes reneging on a pledge not to “fact check” and showing manifest bias in their treatment of the candidates. Television and print outlets are experiencing a sharp decline in revenue and audiences across the industry. As discussed in this weekend’s column, the public is going elsewhere for news. Trust in the media is at a record low. There is no lawsuit that could do the damage that the mainstream media is doing to itself.

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“You can cut back on the fraudulent rackets, or you can cut back on the people.” They are cutting back on the people..”

Gold, Kamala, Trump, Control, Cash, Murder, Water – Austin Fitts (USAW)

Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF), Publisher of The Solari Report, financial expert and former Assistant Secretary of Housing (Bush 41 Admin.), gives her take on gold, Kamala, Trump, control, cash, murder and water. On gold’s rocket rise, CAF says, “Gold is very important. We divide gold into two positions: Your ‘core’ position and your ‘investment’ position. . . . Right now, gold looks phenomenally attractive as a core position. It is also attractive as an investment position.” Why the big move up now? CAF says, “Part of it is the incredible monetary policies and the monetary inflation coming from the central banks. The other is too many people are watching government implode in a variety of different ways, and people are saying I want a core position in gold.

We are also seeing the BRICs . . . and seeing states in the US move to put gold and silver in a position to be used as a currency. So, we are watching people put monetary reserves in gold and monetary liquidity in gold. That is happening steadily, and more and more people are saying they need a percentage of their assets in gold. . . . We are in a long-term bull market in gold.” On Kamala Harris, the operative word is “meltdown.” CAF says, “Kamala is in, what we call in a campaign, a ‘meltdown.’ If you look at the current meltdown, I am baffled because why would somebody with her characteristics be made the nominee? You are talking about major donors putting major money behind her. Why would they spend that much money if there were serious holes in her vetting and she is inclined to melt down this way? It’s kind of baffling.”

On Trump, what is the first thing he should do if re-elected? CAF says, “He should stop the poisoning of the American people. This is one of the reasons we did this issue on water. The American people are being poisoned. . . . I travel a lot by car. I see deterioration in the air, in the water, in the food–they are being poisoned. And, of course, the big one is the CV19 vaccines. Vaccines are poisoning Americans. There was just a big ruling against putting fluoride poison being added to municipal water supplies. One of the things you can do is to march down to your city or county and tell them to stop wasting money on putting poison in your water. If you reverse that, it is one important action you can take.”

The Deep State and central bankers want total control of your money and your life. Fitts says this is why she started pushing the use of cash instead of digital transactions. She calls it “Make Cash Great Again.” . . . If we don’t fix the finances from an actuarial standpoint, they are going to continue to delay benefits or lower life expectancy, and that is what they are doing. They are balancing the books by lowering life expectancy.” One way to lower life expectancy is to inject people with a so-called vaccine that is really a bioweapon that murders and disables people. That is exactly what happened with the CV19 vax, and the deaths or murders are still piling up. CAF says, “You can cut back on the fraudulent rackets, or you can cut back on the people.” They are cutting back on the people by any measure.

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“..it’s beyond horrendous, it’s beyond comprehension.”

‘It’s Like We’re Watching Auschwitz on TikTok’ (Gabor Maté)

Had there been YouTube and Instagram and TikTok around Auschwitz, this is what we would have seen, people burning alive. And it’s beyond horrendous, it’s beyond comprehension.” In an online meeting with French activist and film producer Frank Barat on Monday, Canadian physician Gabor Mate explored the psychological complexities of witnessing atrocities in Gaza and Palestine, saying: “It’s like we’re watching Auschwitz on TikTok.” They delve into the emotional and historical roots of violence and oppression, highlighting the trauma, guilt, and helplessness experienced by observers. Mate stresses the need to acknowledge these emotions and examines the normalisation of violence, while contemplating the future implications for Gaza and global society.

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“..looking after his children and his wife and building an understanding of his family and these… new circumstances of freedom..”

Julian Would Not Have Survived Without Plea Deal – Assange’s Father (RT)

John Shipton, the father of WikiLeaks co-founder Julian Assange, has spoken to RT about his son’s plea deal with the US and what the publisher has been doing since regaining his freedom four months ago. Assange spent five years in a high-security prison in the UK as he fought extradition to the US, which had accused him of unlawfully obtaining and disclosing classified information, much of which related to American war crimes. In June, he struck a plea bargain with the US Justice Department, formally acknowledging some guilt and waiving his right to legal recourse in exchange for freedom. “I pled guilty to journalism,” the Wikileaks founder explained later. Speaking of his son’s ordeal, Shipton – who is currently visiting Russia – told RT on Saturday that “the US, in its pursuit of those that it does not like, is clearly quite ruthless and vindictive.”

“I imagine if not for the intercession of the Australian government, the Australian people and the Australian parliament, if not for that intercession [which made the plea deal possible], Julian would not have survived,” he stressed. Shipton gave his interview in Moscow alongside Mira Terada, a Russian journalist who was extradited to the US from Finland in late 2010s on accusations of money laundering and spent 46 months in an American prison. Assange’s father arrived to Moscow on the invitation of Terada, who is now co-chair of the BRICS Journalists Association. Being in a US prison is “the worst experience” a human being can have, Terada insisted. “It is a human rights violation from the moment when they kidnap you to the moment when they release you,” she said, adding that inmates are being subject to both physical and psychological torture.

“I am confident that he [Assange] would never have a fair trial [in the US], but it is a big question if he would make it alive till the trial,” she said. Shipton recalled that he was “elated” when Assange was released from prison, saying that “a great burden had been lifted from myself and many hundreds of thousands of people, who ardently fought for Julian’s freedom for many years.” Some of those activists – in the UK, Germany, France, Russia, New Zealand, Canada, Australia and South America – became “rather like an extended family” to us, he added. According to Assange’s father, he “did not use hope as a tool for energy” when his son remained behind bars, but relied on “faith that the people of the world would object fundamentally to the site of an injustice and move towards righting that and bringing about justice.”

“I do not have fears” about Julian Assange’s future at the moment, Shipton said. “I think the arrangements that the diplomats and lawyers have made with the US are substantial enough to allow Julian to live a normal life.” The Wikileaks co-founder is now busy “looking after his children and his wife and building an understanding of his family and these… new circumstances of freedom,” he said. Assange is “a voracious reader and very curious. So I imagine that he is furthering his knowledge in the areas of his interests, which are vast.” When asked about whether his son is planning to return to journalism, Shipton replied: “I have no way of answering that question.”

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All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO).

Pentagon Says There is No Hard Evidence of Aliens Visiting Earth (Sp.)

Pentagon Press Secretary Major General Patrick Ryder this week made it clear exactly what the US military reportedly knows about aliens’ alleged visits to Earth. “The truth is out there, Jeff, and the truth is we have no evidence to indicate extraterrestrial life has visited the planet,” he told Task and Purpose reporter Jeff Schogol during a press event on Thursday, when the latter asked him what the Pentagon knows about aliens and UFOs. Ryder’s revelations can hardly be considered a novelty as the All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO), set up specifically to investigate UFOs (or UAPs as they are often referred to today) and other inexplicable phenomena, said as much in a report released back in March.

“To date, AARO has found no verifiable evidence for claims that the US government and private companies have access to or have been reverse-engineering extraterrestrial technology,” Maj. Gen. Ryder said in a statement issued on March 8. “Also, AARO has found no evidence that any US government investigation, academic-sponsored research, or official review panel has confirmed that any sighting of a UAP represented extraterrestrial technology.” Ryder also pointed out at the time that “all investigative efforts, at all levels of classification, concluded that most sightings were ordinary objects and phenomena and the result of misidentification.”

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Matrix

 

 

Casey Means

 

 

Dough

 

 

Ivy

 

 

Bai Cai

 

 

No way

 

 

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Jan 262020
 
 January 26, 2020  Posted by at 10:58 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  22 Responses »


Jack Delano Long stairway in mill district of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 1941

 

Chinese Virus Deaths Rise To 56, 2,000 Infected & More Cases Abroad (RT)
Coronavirus Contagion Rate Makes It Hard To Control (R.)
No Link With Seafood Market In First Case Of China Coronavirus (SCMP)
China Stole Coronavirus From Canada And Weaponized It (GGI)
US Economic Confidence at Highest Point Since 2000 (Gallup)
Stock Market A ‘Ponzi Scheme’ That Eventually Must Collapse – Guggenheim (RT)
Neither Side Is Really Trying To Win This Trump Impeachment Trial (Turley)
Trump Defense Team Signals Focus On Schiff (Hill)
Adam Schiff Is a Dangerous Warmonger (Jacobin)
Joe Biden Lied About His Record On Social Security (IC)
VP Pence Appears To Suggest Americans, Nor Russians, Liberated Auschwitz (RT)

 

 

People’s Daily: “Chinese health authorities announced Sunday that 1,975 confirmed cases of pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), including 324 in critical conditions and 56 deaths, had been reported in the country by the end of Saturday.”

We’re nicely in line with the Fibonacci sequence, with Hubei infections rising from 1,400 to 2,000. 3,300 tomorrow? Note that “official” updates are provided once a day, apparently first thing in the morning. Curious that deaths the previous day rose from 26 to 41, and today to 56, i.e. by 15 in both cases. The updates are heavily controlled.

Incubation time is now estimated as up to 2 weeks, so think back at least those 14 days and think back to how safety measures were back then. Questions also arise about the origin of the virus. A dead bat, a bioweapon lab, or both? Many animals are now -officially- off the menu.


Fibonacci

Chinese Virus Deaths Rise To 56, 2,000 Infected & More Cases Abroad (RT)

The death toll from the 2019-nCoV coronavirus outbreak in China has reached 56, with hundreds of new infections detected nationwide, despite all containment efforts. A handful of news cases have also been reported outside China. The first death was reported in Shanghai, and another one in Henan Province, while 13 more people died in Hubei Province – the epicenter of the outbreak – where nearly 130 people were reportedly in serious or critical condition as of Sunday morning. In addition to hundreds of known and confirmed cases, some 7,000 people there remain under increased medical supervision due to their potentially dangerous “close contacts.”

Meanwhile, the number of those who have beaten the virus and were discharged from hospitals has increased to at least 85, according to authorities. = China is facing a “grave situation” as the new coronavirus is “accelerating its spread,” President Xi Jinping warned earlier. He added, however, that given the immense efforts to contain the outbreak, China “will definitely be able to win the battle.” Around 450 Chinese military medics, many with experience in combating SARS or Ebola, were deployed in the region to help the overworked and exhausted hospital staff, who had been on around-the-clock shifts in recent weeks. Meanwhile, local authorities are rushing to construct a new 1,000-bed facility specifically to treat victims of the deadly virus.

Chinese authorities have also imposed strict travel restrictions in the outbreak epicenter of Wuhan, as well as nearly 20 cities in Hubei Province, with nearly 50 million people virtually quarantined in the middle of the holiday season. With many mass public events canceled, additional limitations have been imposed on intercity bus routes starting Sunday. Medical staff have been tasked with checking travelers’ temperatures for any signs of fever – the most apparent symptom of coronavirus, which is followed by a dry cough and leads to shortness of breath.

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R0 rate appears to have been lowered to 2.5, from 3.8. Don’t get all happy.

Coronavirus Contagion Rate Makes It Hard To Control (R.)

Each person infected with coronavirus is passing the disease on to between two and three other people on average at current transmission rates, according to two separate scientific analyses of the epidemic. Whether the outbreak will continue to spread at this rate depends on the effectiveness of control measures, the scientists who conducted the studies said. But to be able to contain the epidemic and turn the tide of infections, control measures would have to halt transmission in at least 60% of cases. The death toll from the coronavirus outbreak jumped to 41 on Saturday, with more than 1,400 people infected worldwide – the vast majority in China.

“It is unclear at the current time whether this outbreak can be contained within China,” said Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease specialist at Imperial College London who co-led one of the studies. Ferguson’s team suggest as many as 4,000 people in Wuhan were already infected by Jan. 18 and that on average each case was infecting two or three others. A second study by researchers at Britain’s Lancaster University also calculated the contagion rate at 2.5 new people on average being infected by each person already infected. “Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan, we predict (it) will be substantially larger by Feb. 4,” the scientists wrote. “Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan, we predict (it) will be substantially larger by Feb. 4,” the scientists wrote.

They estimated that the central Chinese city of Wuhan where the outbreak began in December will alone have around 190,000 cases of infection by Feb. 4., and that “infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent.”

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This kind of uncertainty doesn’t help.

No Link With Seafood Market In First Case Of China Coronavirus (SCMP)

The first person known to have been infected by the Wuhan coronavirus had never visited the city’s seafood market – regarded as the epicentre of the outbreak – according to Chinese researchers, who also called for extra precautions against airborne transmission of the disease between humans. The researchers, seven of whom work at Wuhan’s Jinyintan hospital, designated for patients with the illness, revealed on Friday in The Lancet medical journal that symptoms of the new disease were first reported on December 1 – much earlier than the Wuhan government’s initial announcement on December 31 of 27 cases of the pneumonia-like infection.

According to the report, the first patient had no exposure to the Huanan seafood market which was shut down on January 1 over fears – later confirmed – that the new virus was linked to its trade in wild animals. The researchers added that none of the patient’s family had developed fever or any respiratory symptoms. There was also no epidemiological link between the first patient and the later cases, they found. The researchers analysed data from 41 patients with confirmed infections who had showed an onset of symptoms up to January 2. Six of those patients died, putting the fatality rate of the group at 15 per cent. The researchers noted that clinical presentations of the patients greatly resembled severe acute respiratory syndrome.

The first patient to die from the new coronavirus had continuous exposure to the market before he was admitted to hospital with a seven-day history of fever, cough and breathing difficulties, according to their report. Five days after the onset of symptoms, his wife, a 53-year-old woman with no known history of exposure to the market, also presented with pneumonia and was hospitalised in the isolation ward, they said. The absence of a link to the seafood market is one of the indicators for human-to-human transmission of the virus and the researchers identified another 13 patients who also had no direct exposure to the market.

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Lots of background. Viruses are potent weapons.

China Stole Coronavirus From Canada And Weaponized It (GGI)

Last year a mysterious shipment was caught smuggling Coronavirus from Canada. It was traced to Chinese agents working at a Canadian lab. Subsequent investigation by GreatGameIndia linked the agents to Chinese Biological Warfare Program from where the virus is suspected to have leaked causing the Wuhan Coronavirus outbreak. On June 13, 2012 a 60-year-old Saudi man was admitted to a private hospital in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, with a 7-day history of fever, cough, expectoration, and shortness of breath. He had no history of cardiopulmonary or renal disease, was receiving no long-term medications, and did not smoke. Egyptian virologist Dr. Ali Mohamed Zaki isolated and identified a previously unknown coronavirus from his lungs.

After routine diagnostics failed to identify the causative agent, Zaki contacted Ron Fouchier, a leading virologist at the Erasmus Medical Center (EMC) in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, for advice. Fouchier sequenced the virus from a sample sent by Zaki. Fouchier used a broad-spectrum “pan-coronavirus” real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) method to test for distinguishing features of a number of known coronaviruses known to infect humans. This Coronavirus sample was acquired by Scientific Director Dr. Frank Plummer of Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory (NML) in Winnipeg directly from Fouchier, who received it from Zaki. This virus was reportedly stolen from the Canadian lab by Chinese agents.

Coronavirus arrived at Canada’s NML Winnipeg facility on May 4, 2013 from the Dutch lab. The Canadian lab grew up stocks of the virus and used it to assess diagnostic tests being used in Canada. Winnipeg scientists worked to see which animal species can be infected with the new virus. Research was done in conjunction with the Canadian Food Inspection Agency’s national lab, the National Centre for Foreign Animal Diseases which is housed in the same complex as the National Microbiology Laboratory.

In March 2019, in mysterious event a shipment of exceptionally virulent viruses from Canada’s NML ended up in China. The event caused a major scandal with Bio-warfare experts questioning why Canada was sending lethal viruses to China. Scientists from NML said the highly lethal viruses were a potential bio-weapon. Following investigation, the incident was traced to Chinese agents working at NML. Four months later in July 2019, a group of Chinese virologists were forcibly dispatched from the Canadian National Microbiology Laboratory (NML). The NML is Canada’s only level-4 facility and one of only a few in North America equipped to handle the world’s deadliest diseases, including Ebola, SARS, Coronavirus, etc.

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Elections in 9-10 months.

US Economic Confidence at Highest Point Since 2000 (Gallup)

Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy is higher than at any point in about two decades. The latest figure from Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is +40, the highest reading recorded since +44 in October 2000. Americans’ buoyant confidence in the economy in Gallup’s latest poll, conducted Jan. 2-15, likely reflects the U.S. unemployment rate’s continued stay at a 50-year low. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to reach record highs — and flirts with reaching the 30,000 marker. Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: Americans’ ratings of current economic conditions and their views on whether the economy is getting better or getting worse.


The index has a theoretical maximum of +100, achieved if all Americans believe the economy is excellent or good and getting better. The theoretical minimum is -100, if all Americans say the economy is poor and getting worse. The current conditions component score of +54 is the result of 62% of Americans saying the economy is “excellent” or “good” and 8% describing it as “poor.” Meanwhile, the economic outlook component score of +26 is the result of 59% saying the economy is “getting better” and 33% saying it is “getting worse.” Gallup’s tracking of economic confidence over the past 28 years has recorded index readings at or above the +40 mark in just nine other measurements, all between 1998 and 2000 — with the highest level recorded in January 2000, at +56, after a then-record high for the Dow. The latest reading of +40 is the only time the index has reached that level since 2000.

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Nothing I haven’t already said 1000 times.

Stock Market A ‘Ponzi Scheme’ That Eventually Must Collapse – Guggenheim (RT)

The rallying markets aren’t as good as they seem, says Guggenheim Partners chief Scott Minerd. He likened inflation of asset prices caused by loose money policies of central banks to a ponzi scheme that eventually must collapse. “We will reach a tipping point when investors will awake to the rising tide of defaults and downgrades,” Minerd wrote in a letter from the World Economic Forum meeting. “The timing is hard to predict, but this reminds me a lot of the lead-up to the 2001 and 2002 recession.” He cited rising defaults despite a rally in riskier assets, and reiterated a warning that BBB-rated bonds risk further downgrades.


The chief executive said that the type of debt is at a greater risk of deterioration than it was in 2007. Guggenheim Partners, which operates in the global investment and advisory space, manages more than $275 billion in assets as of September last year. The company’s fixed-income chief Anne Walsh told Yahoo Finance that 15 percent of the US economy is already in recession. According to her, the Federal Reserve’s efforts to pump liquidity into markets has created “zombie companies” that may see an outflow of capital as the utility of that money continues to diminish. The longer that this market runs, the harder the fall will be when it ends, she said.

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Don’t attack a jury.

Neither Side Is Really Trying To Win This Trump Impeachment Trial (Turley)

It is the one unbreakable rule in litigation. You can insult the defendant or the opposing attorney and, on occasion, you might even insult the judge. But the one thing you can never do is insult the jury. That is only if you want to win a jury verdict, and that may be why both legal teams in the impeachment trial of President Trump seem more eager to get the goats of Senate jurors rather than their votes. Both sides seem to be striving for the constitutional equivalent of a hung jury, not enough votes for either a bipartisan acquittal or conviction, simply the status quo. What is different is that you usually do not actually hang the jury in a hung jury strategy.

The most riveting example this week was the argument of House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler, who stood in the well of the Senate and appeared to accuse Republican senators of a conspiracy to “cover up” the wrongdoing of the president. It was a moment that produced an audible gasp from the room, along with a note from Senator Susan Collins complaining to Chief Justice John Roberts, who then promptly declared that “those addressing the Senate should remember where they are.” The aspersions from Nadler alienated at least two of the four Republican senators that House impeachment managers are struggling to win over in their fight to call witnesses.

In addition to Collins, Senator Lisa Murkowski was irate and denounced the comments by Nadler as soon as she walked off the floor. Murkowski later expressed skepticism about helping House managers to call witnesses they did not seek to compel during their own investigations. That is what happens when a prosecutor incorporates the jury into the list of accomplices in an ongoing conspiracy during trial. House manager Adam Schiff produced further gasps when he repeated reports that the senators were warned that if they vote against Trump their heads “will be on a pike.” Collins and Murkowski were among those angrily responding to the “unnecessary” remarks. Other senators have had their own awkward moments.

The House managers played a clip of Senator Lindsay Graham from the Clinton impeachment trial declaring, “What is a high crime? It does not even have to be a crime. It is just when you start using your office and you are acting in a way that hurts people, you have committed a high crime.” That statement of a hurtful standard for impeachment was meant to embarrass Graham. It certainly worked. For its part, the White House could not get enough of old clips of Senator Charles Schumer promising to vote for acquittal before the Clinton trial was even scheduled. Schumer also opposed any witnesses or a full trial in the Clinton impeachment.

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He’s the face after all. They get bonus points for limiting it to 2 hours. And they seemed to do well.

Trump Defense Team Signals Focus On Schiff (Hill)

At several points during their opening argument, President Trump’s defense team trained their fire on Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), removing any doubt about their intent to make the House manager’s credibility an issue at the impeachment trial. Addressing the Senate on Saturday, Trump’s lawyers accused Schiff of repeatedly stretching the truth and creating false impressions amid his pursuit to take down the president. “Chairman Schiff has made so much of the House’s case about the credibility of interpretations that the House managers want to place on — not hard evidence — but on inferences,” said Patrick Philbin, deputy counsel to Trump.

“It is very relevant to know whether assessments of evidence he’s presented in the past are accurate,” Philbin said of Schiff. “And we would submit they have not been, and that that is relevant for your consideration.” The defense team portrayed Schiff as having first launched his overreaching efforts against Trump during former special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation and continuing through Trump’s impeachment trial. The attacks on Schiff were perhaps unsurprising, as the House Intelligence Committee chairman has emerged as the lead prosecutor among House managers pressing the case against Trump in the Senate.

In fact, Schiff anticipated the offensive and delivered a warning to senators last night that spelled out specific attacks he expected to be lodged against him, some of which materialized Saturday. “I think the second thing you’ll hear from the president’s team is, attack the managers. Those managers are just awful. They’re terrible people,” Schiff said. “Especially that Schiff guy. He’s the worst. He’s the worst.” [..] Trump’s team today called into question whether Schiff can be trusted as an honest broker. At one point, Trump’s defense team played video of Schiff on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” saying that he had seen “evidence that is not circumstantial” that the Trump campaign had colluded in Russia’s 2016 election interference.

Trump’s lawyers contrasted Schiff’s claim with Mueller’s conclusion that his nearly two-year probe had established no coordination between the Trump campaign and Moscow. The defense team also accused Schiff and his staff of coaching the whistleblower, who raised a red flag over Trump’s July 25 phone call with the Ukrainian president that set in motion the impeachment. They paired the allegation with a clip of Schiff asserting on national television that “we have not spoken directly with the whistleblower,” a claim which fact-checkers found was false.

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The war party.

Adam Schiff Is a Dangerous Warmonger (Jacobin)

Assuring us that he is aware, actually, of what century this is, Schiff said in 2015, “Now, we’re not seeing the same bipolar world we had between communism and capitalism.” (Phew!) He then added, “But we are seeing a new bipolar world, I think, where you have democracy versus authoritarianism.” Schiff has not viewed this as a mere contest of ideas: he constantly advocated for Obama to impose tougher sanctions on Russia and give more weapons to Ukraine.

Although delicately opposed to violence in some contexts — he’s a vegan! — this isn’t the only war Schiff has championed. He supported the Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya wars, greater US intervention in Syria, as well as the Saudi war with Yemen (although he has, in the past year, turned against the latter adventure, seeming to draw the line at sawing up journalists with bonesaws — he is a moderate after all, plus very popular with the media), and he has voted for nearly every possible increase in the defense budget.

As Jacobin’s own Branko Marcetic observed two years ago, Schiff’s bellicosity is extensively funded by arms manufacturers and military contractors. A Ukrainian arms dealer named Igor Pasternak held a $2,500 per head fundraiser for Schiff in 2013, as the late Justin Raimondo reported in a terrific analysis on Antiwar.com in 2017, at a time when Ukraine was desperately trying to counter the Obama administration’s disinterest in funding its war with Russia. Despite that disinterest, the State Department approved some very profitable dealings for Pasternak in Ukraine after that fundraiser.

And that’s only one example. In the current cycle, donations from the war industry have continued to flood his coffers. Many come from employees of firms with extensive Department of Defense contracts, including Radiance Technologies and Raytheon. PACs representing the defense industry also make a robust showing among Schiff’s contributors, according to data on Open Secrets.org; companies funneling money to Schiff — sorry, contributing to those PACs — include Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Radiance, and others, including L3Harris Technologies (which got in big trouble with the State Department in September and had to pay $13 million in penalties for illegal arms dealing).

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Why is everyone still talking about Biden? He’s out.

Joe Biden Lied About His Record On Social Security (IC)

Over the past few weeks, former Vice President Joe Biden has been making an effort to recast his record on Social Security as one of a champion who defended the program from assaults, rather than one who consistently argued that it ought to be cut. The value of such a revision is clear: Austerity is no longer a politically viable platform for Democrats to take in the primary. His defense of his record has included multiple television interviews, public comments, and even an ad attacking Sen. Bernie Sanders for “dishonest smears” challenging him on Social Security. In the ad, Biden makes a sweeping claim: “I’ve been fighting to protect — and expand — Social Security for my whole career. Any suggestion otherwise is just flat-out wrong.”

At Vice’s Black and Brown Forum in Iowa this week, when pressed on his proposal to freeze Social Security payments by moderator Antonia Hylton, he simply lied: “I didn’t propose a freeze.” In fact, Biden has argued for cuts or freezes to Social Security throughout much of his career. Earlier in January, The Intercept wrote about several instances in which Biden advocated for cutting Social Security over the course of his career. Biden, when he acknowledges his past support for cuts, portrays the advocacy as deep in the past. But a close inspection finds reams of more recent evidence of Biden’s support for cuts — including in Biden’s recent recounting of a conversation he had with China’s president, Xi Jinping, and in his choice of Bruce Reed, a longtime deficit hawk, as a senior policy adviser in his current presidential campaign.

Reed, a longtime Biden aide, played a central role in advocating cuts to the New Deal-era program as a co-founder of the Democratic Leadership Council, as the top staffer for a controversial commission dedicated to slashing the deficit, and then as Biden’s chief of staff during the Obama administration. In Washington, D.C., he would be the last high-level staffer a campaign would bring aboard if it was genuinely intent on expanding, not cutting, Social Security.

This past week, Biden steadily ratcheted up his revision of his record. At Vice News’s Brown and Black Forum in Iowa on Monday, he was pressed on Social Security. “Do you think though that it’s fair for voters to question your commitment to Social Security when in the past you proposed a freeze to it?” he was asked by Vice moderator Hylton. “No, I didn’t propose a freeze,” he said. “You did,” she corrected. On Tuesday, he released an ad attacking Sanders for what he called “dishonest smears.” The hit prompted a response from Sanders, who posted a short ad showing Biden boasting of his willingness to cut Social Security on the Senate floor. The Sanders ad has been viewed some 4 million times, to Biden’s less than a million.

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Does he even know?

VP Pence Appears To Suggest Americans, Nor Russians, Liberated Auschwitz (RT)

US Vice President Mike Pence’s speech on the Holocaust left the impression it was American soldiers who liberated Auschwitz, erased the Soviet Union’s well-documented act, and even used the solemn occasion to lash out at Iran. Speaking at the World Holocaust Forum in Israel on Thursday, Pence said that it was “soldiers” who opened the gates of Auschwitz on January 27, 1945. Which soldiers? Pence does not say, whether accidentally or on purpose. Pence’s omission became much more glaring a few moments later, when he honored the memory of “all the Allied forces, including more than two million American soldiers, who left hearth and home, suffered appalling casualties, and freed a continent from the grip of tyranny.”

Listening to Pence’s speech, one might be tempted to conclude that it was these American soldiers who liberated Auschwitz, or bore the brunt of the burden of liberating Europe from the Nazis. Yet if we want to talk about truly “appalling casualties,” how about the nearly 27 million soldiers and civilians of the Soviet Union who perished in that war? What about the Red Army’s 322nd Rifle Division, under General Pyotr Ivanovich Zubov, that actually kicked in the doors of Auschwitz, only to be ‘erased’ from memory by an American vice-president 75 years later? One word – “Soviet” before “soldiers” – would have sufficed to give credit where it’s due. There is nothing wrong with being an American patriot, but this sort of dissembling is at best ignorance, and at worst outright stolen valor, both entirely unbecoming of a statesman.

Pence ended his speech by praising the US alliance with Israel and urging the world to “stand strong against the Islamic Republic of Iran” as “the one government in the world that denies the Holocaust as a matter of state policy and threatens to wipe Israel off the map.” Meanwhile, at the same event, Russian President Vladimir Putin denounced the use of the Holocaust in present-day political disputes and proposed a summit of the five permanent UN Security Council members – representing the nations principally responsible for defeating Hitler and establishing the post-war world order – to address the challenges of the world today and “demonstrate our common commitment to the spirit of allied relations, historical memory and the lofty ideals and values for which our predecessors, our grandfathers and fathers fought shoulder to shoulder.”

Read more …

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1221188593290366976

 

 

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Dec 072019
 


Saul Leiter Taxi c1957

 

When I read that Angela Merkel visited Auschwitz this week (for the first time ever, curiously, after 14 years as Chancellor, and now it’s important?), my first thought was: she should have visited Julian Assange instead. I don’t even know why, it just popped into my head. And then reflecting on it afterwards, of course first I wondered if it’s acceptable to compare nazi victims to Assange in any way, shape or form.

There are many paths to argue it is not. He is not persecuted solely for being part of a group of people (we can’t really use “race” here). There are not millions like him who are being tortured and persecuted for the same reasons he is. There is no grand scheme to take out all like him. There is no major police or army force to execute any such scheme. These things are all obvious.

But I grew up in Holland, where unlike in Merkel’s Germany, the aftermath of WWII and the Holocaust was very much present. I looked it up, and it’s already almost 10 years ago that I wrote Miep Gies Died Today, in which I explained this. Miep Gies was a woman who worked for Anne Frank’s father Otto, helped hide the family in the annex, and after the war secured Anne’s diary (or we would never have known about it) and handed it to Otto Frank.

So accusing me of anti-semitism for comparing the Holocaust to what is being done to Assange is not going to work. Why then did Merkel never visit Auschwitz before this week, and when she did, said how important it is to German history? And why did she not visit Assange instead?

Unlike the people who died in Auschwitz and other concentration camps (Anne Frank died in Bergen Belsen from typhoid), Julian Assange today, as we speak, IS being persecuted, he IS being tortured, and he IS likely to die in a prison. What does Angela Merkel think that Anne Frank would have thought about that? Would she have written in her diary that it was okay?

Would all those millions of Jewish and Roma and gay victims have thought that? There are 75+ years that have gone by. We can not get these victims back, we can not magically revive them. But we CAN make sure that what happened to them, torture and murder, doesn’t happen to people today. “Never Again”, right? Well, it IS happening again.

Are we all supposed to go say “I didn’t know” -“Ich hab es nicht gewüsst”- like the Germans did, and all those who collaborated with them across Europe?

There are victims who are dead, and there are victims who are -barely- alive. And if you claim you wish to honor the dead victims, you must ask what they would have felt about the ones like them who are still alive. Otherwise, you’re not honoring them, you’re just posing and acting and, in the end, grossly insulting them.

Julian Assange is not in a German prison, true, but Angela Merkel is still the uncrowned queen of Europe, and if she would visit Julian in his Belmarsh torture chamber it would make a huge difference. That she elects to visit Auschwitz instead, does not only make her appear hollow and empty, it is a grave insult to the likes of Anne Frank and all the other nazi victims.

 

 

Which brings me to another Assange-related issue. The Guardian’s editor, Katharine Viner, launched an appeal yesterday for people to donate money to her paper’s “climate emergency” fund. That in itself is fine. If people think they need to help save the planet with their savings, sure.

Though I will always have suspicions about all these things. From where I stand, I see too many people claiming to save the planet, oil CEOs and billionaires first, and too much money being invited to join their funds. If you want to donate something for the cause, why do it via a newspaper? But even with that in mind, yeah, whatever, it’s Christmas time. Who cares how effective the money will be?

My problem with Katharine Viner and the Guardian is that they have played a very active role in the smearing and persecution of Julian Assange. They’ve published articles that were proven to be 100% false, and never retracted them, or apologized, or attempted to make things right. The Guardian is a major reason why Julian is where he is. It has accommodated, make that encouraged, the British people’s “Ich hab es nicht gewüsst”.

You can donate to the Guardian’s climate emergency fund, if you believe they don’t run it to make you think they really care about the planet more than about their bottom line, but be careful: you will also be supporting the further smearing and persecution of Julian Assange. Are you sure you want to do that?

See, the headline for Katharine Viner’s article is: The Climate Crisis Is The Most Urgent Threat Of Our Time. And it’s not. The most urgent threat is that to Julian Assange’s health. That is today, not in 5 or 10 or 100 years. After all, what is the use of saving the planet if we allow the smartest and bravest among us to be tortured to death? What do we think Anne Frank would have said about that?

 

 

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Mar 202017
 
 March 20, 2017  Posted by at 8:26 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  4 Responses »


Janine Niepce Paris ca. 1950

 

The Central Bank Shell Game (WS)
Using Superannuation For Deposit ‘Irresponsible’ – Keating (Nine)
Chinese Home Prices “Unexpectedly” Rebound (ZH)
The Fed’s Global Dollar Problem (BBG)
Oil Drops On Rising Us Drilling, Failing OPEC Cuts (R.)
Smile For The Auschwitz Selfie: Why Holocaust Memorials Have Failed (NS)
Spy Comments Proof Germany Supports Group Behind Attempted Coup: Erdogan (R.)
Erdogan Accused Merkel Of Using Nazi Methods (DW)
Dijsselbloem Calls For ESM To Be Turned Into A European IMF (R.)
Defeat in Victory (Jacobin)
Greece Edges Toward Another Bailout Crisis (BBG)
How Millions In Refugee Funds Were Wasted In Greece (K.)
Avoiding Risky Sea Journey, Syrian Refugees Head To Italy ‘Pronto’ (AFP)
3,000 Migrants Rescued Off Libya On Sunday (AFP)

 

 

Great example of why there is a housing bubble everywhere, from a guest writer at Wolfstreet. The second graph is priceless. “The very premise of Swedish society is under attack..”

The Central Bank Shell Game (WS)

Sweden’s welfare state supposedly allows for success while providing a safety net for those unable to keep up with the market. In principle, it is an ideal, utopian-like state. However, Sweden’s touted economic success has come at the expense of its currency, the Krone (SEK), and long-term sustainability. Riksbank, the Swedish Central Bank, like its European contemporaries, has undertaken experimental policy, driving real and nominal interest rates below zero. Since 2014, Swedish deposit rates have been negative. Not only has overall negative real interest rate policy affected housing, but it also drove Swedish consumers deeper into debt. Embarking on the dual mandate policy may have staved off recession, but it created greater problems for the future.

Although current deposit rates are at a record low of -1.25%, the latest GDP print came in at 2.3%, and the growth rate has been tapering since 2015. Sweden’s “hot” GDP growth – hot relative to the region – could be attributed, not to industrial growth, but rather increased government spending, funding social programs. Additionally, with no incentive to save, consumer debt has taken off, along with the housing prices, while disposable income lagged. Swedish household debt is now at a record high. Hence, the Swedish growth story is not organic but rather a borrow-and-spend one.

Swedes, like Norwegians, are victims of the “exchange rate versus housing price shell game.” The SEK received today for the sale of their inflated flats has fallen 30% against the US dollar (average USDSEK in 2014 was 6.86 vs. 8.95 on March 15, 2017). Stockholm housing rose 31% during the same period in SEK terms, negating the recent gains over the same period. The SEK fell 23% against gold in the same period. Hence, the “Swedish Model” is under attack. The egalitarian underpinnings, unwinding with the negative rates, are driving a wedge into Swedish society, creating extremes on both sides of the economic spectrum. The rampant consumerism, encouraged by artificially low rates, continues to widen the wealth gap. Coincidentally, the middle class deteriorated the most between 2014 and 2015: the same time that deposit rates took a dive. Furthermore, the negative savings rates are driving the average person to “gamble” on speculative investments instead of saving and building a future over the long term.

[..] instead of undertaking experimental rate policy, Riksbank and the Swedish government should be engineering a soft-landing or a “controlled crash”, adjusting taxes and policy to ensuring a smooth transition to sustainability for the general population. There is precedent from Iceland that already exists. It is clear that the negative rate experiment is neither sustainable nor helpful to economic growth. It only inflates bubbles while widening the wealth gap in Swedish society. A once prudent and financially conservative people are now getting drunk on debt, wrecking their future. The very premise of Swedish society is under attack.

Read more …

Everybody does it. When people start borrowing less from banks for housing, economies will collapse. Superannuation is sort of like Australia’s 401(K).

Using Superannuation For Deposit ‘Irresponsible’ – Keating (Nine)

Former prime minister Paul Keating has labelled as “scandalous” the Turnbull government’s suggestion it might allow young people to raid their superannuation for house deposits. Ahead of the May budget, Mr Keating argues the idea would rob younger Australians of a large block of savings at the end of their working lives. “As an economic idea, this is scandalous. But, of course, for the Liberal Party, this is an ideological proposal,” he writes in Fairfax Media today. Mr Keating, who spearheaded Australia’s superannuation sector in 1992, said if the government were to proceed with this “irresponsible” idea it would put at risk the financial future of generations.

“It would potentially destroy superannuation for those, in the main, under 40 years of age, while at the same time, driving up the cost of the housing they are seeking to purchase,” he said. The federal government earlier this month set up a taskforce to look at new ways to promote millions of dollars of investment in community housing that could benefit one in three Australians. The taskforce will be headed up by Stephen Knight, who has had extensive experience in debt capital markets as CEO of the Treasury Corporation in NSW and as a member of the Australian Office of Financial Management advisory board. The group will report back to the government by the middle of the year. Treasurer Scott Morrison said housing affordability issues were impacting on the 30% of Australians who live in rented homes, and those who relied on affordable and social housing.

Read more …

China is caught in the same bind as Sweden, Australia, and just about the entire western world. Without ever more mortgage lending, banking systems are gone.

Chinese Home Prices “Unexpectedly” Rebound (ZH)

“The government intends to pause the surging home prices, and let them walk steadily up later,” said Xia Dan, a Shanghai-based analyst at Bank of Communications Co., adding that if curbs on demand are lifted, prices will rise further. “The government doesn’t want the prices to run all the time and ferment bubbles.” As Bloomberg notes, China’s biggest cities have seen a round of home price surges in the past year. In Beijing, new home prices rose 24% in February from a year earlier, while Shanghai saw a 25% gain. Shenzhen prices increased 14% in the same period. “Beijing’s tightening will have a short-term effect to stabilize the market, but the power of policy has become increasingly weaker,” Zhang Hongwei at Tospur Real Estate Consulting, said Friday, adding more local tightening may follow.

Or maybe not, because one may ask: is the rebound really unexpected. Perhaps not: as the WSJ reported on Sunday, “this year it seemed China was finally going to make headway on an idea familiar to U.S. homeowners: a property tax. For many Chinese families, owning a home is one of few options to build wealth, driving buying frenzies as people rush to purchase before prices soar. Imposing costs on homeowners through a property tax is seen as a way to tame such speculation, while also helping fund local governments. Lu Kehua, China’s vice housing minister, last month said the government needed to “speed up” a property-tax law. Economists and academics have long recommended the move. Yet the annual National People’s Congress came and went this month with no discussion of the topic. An NPC spokeswoman said a property tax wouldn’t be on the legislative agenda for the rest of the year.

In short, China evaluted the risk of a potential housing bubble burst, and deciding that – at least for the time being – it is not worth the threat of losing a third of Chinese GDP in “wealth effect”, got cold feet. Expect the recent dip in home prices to promptly stabilize, with gains in the short-term more likely that not.

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Long predicted. Financial warfare.

The Fed’s Global Dollar Problem (BBG)

The Federal Reserve might be doing the right thing for the U.S. economy by moving to bring interest rates back up to normal. But for foreign companies and governments that have borrowed trillions of U.S. dollars, the adjustment could be painful. Thanks in large part to a prolonged period of extremely low U.S. interest rates, borrowers around the world have gone on a dollar binge over much of the past decade – making them more vulnerable to the Fed’s policy decisions than ever before. As of September, non-bank companies and governments outside the U.S. had some $10.5 trillion in dollar-denominated debt outstanding, according to the Bank for International Settlements. That’s more than triple the level of September 2004, the last time the Fed was about this far into a cycle of rate increases. Here’s a chart:

If the Fed sticks with its plan of raising rates more than a percentage point by the end of next year, the increased interest costs could stunt growth and weigh on borrowers’ finances in places as far flung as the U.K. and China. It could also mean losses for investors holding the debt, particularly given that the duration of dollar-denominated bonds – a measure of their price sensitivity to changes in interest rates – is close to its highest point in at least two decades. An increase of 1 percentage point, for example, would take $500 billion off the value of the bonds included in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. Dollar Global Corporate and High Yield Index. Here’s a chart showing how that number has changed over the years (thanks to a combination of increased dollar debt and increased duration):

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Next up: falling demand.

Oil Drops On Rising Us Drilling, Failing OPEC Cuts (R.)

Oil prices fell on Monday, with already-bloated markets pressured by rising U.S. drilling activity and steady supplies from OPEC countries despite touted production cuts. Prices for benchmark Brent crude futures were 35 cents, or 0.68%, below their last settlement at 0646 GMT, at $51.41 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 46 cents, or 0.94%, at $48.32 a barrel. Traders said that prices came under pressure from rising U.S. drilling and ongoing high supplies by OPEC despite its pledge to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) together with some other producers like Russia.

“There is good, strong momentum to the downside,” futures brokerage CMC Markets said in a note on Monday. U.S. drillers added 14 oil rigs in the week to March 17, bringing the total count up to 631, the most since September 2015, energy services firm Baker Hughes Inc said on Friday, extending a recovery that is expected to boost shale production by the most in six-months in April. Sukrit Vijayakar of energy consultancy Trifecta said the rising drilling activity was “reinforcing the expectation of higher U.S. production offsetting (OPEC’s) supply cuts”. U.S. oil output has risen to over 9.1 million bpd from below 8.5 million bpd in June last year.

Read more …

“..for the likes of Rudd, “Never forget” means “Don’t forget for two weeks” or, if politically expedient, “Don’t forget for three days”.

“The reason they can never answer the question, ‘How could it [the Holocaust] possibly happen?’ is that it’s the wrong question. Given what people are, the question is, ‘Why doesn’t it happen more often?’”

Smile For The Auschwitz Selfie: Why Holocaust Memorials Have Failed (NS)

It is time to say that attempts to memorialise the Holocaust have failed and may even be counterproductive. The dead are still dead; anti-Semitism still exists and sometimes thrives. Myths of Jewish power circulate, now with the added insult of “playing the Holocaust card (that you presumably picked up at a Holocaust memorial gift shop)”. A clutch of these memorials, all counselling kindness to the refugee, could not save Aylan Kurdi, a three-year-old Syrian boy, from drowning in the Mediterranean Sea in 2014. In January the Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, posted a picture of herself signing a Holocaust remembrance book on Twitter. “We must never forget,” she wrote. It reminded me of my favourite line from the 1986 Woody Allen film Hannah and Her Sisters: “The reason they can never answer the question, ‘How could it [the Holocaust] possibly happen?’ is that it’s the wrong question. Given what people are, the question is, ‘Why doesn’t it happen more often?’”

Two weeks later, Rudd announced that the “Dubs amendment” – which aimed to offer sanctuary to solitary child refugees and was sponsored by Lord Dubs, who came to the UK from Czechoslovakia on the Kindertransport in March 1939 – would be discontinued after resettling just 350 children. (Even the Cameron government, no friend to the vulnerable, suggested that it could take about 3,000.) I do not expect Rudd to know that, in response to the Évian Conference on Jewish refugees, held in France in 1938, Adolf Hitler offered German Jews to the world but the world did not want them. Britain took 10,000 children, sponsored privately, and left their parents to die. After 1945, Britain agreed to take another 1,000 Jewish children but it could not find 1,000 still alive. It took 732. I now see that, for the likes of Rudd, “Never forget” means “Don’t forget for two weeks” or, if politically expedient, “Don’t forget for three days”.

But if that’s what you think, you never knew anything to forget. Rudd couldn’t see the connection between the British government of 1938 leaving children to die in far-off lands and the British government of 2016 doing the same. Her signing of a Holocaust remembrance book was so meaningless that it was, at best, hand exercise and, at worst, a cynical PR gesture. This act of Holocaust memorialising was a failure. I hope that Rudd is prevented from approaching any Holocaust-related stationery in future. But that won’t happen. The orthodoxy in these circles is: let them all come to bear witness, no matter what they do with it. Some of them might learn something. This policy led to a friend hearing a young Polish boy, touring Auschwitz, describe a fellow visitor as “a rich Jewish bitch in all that jewellery”. The boy had learned nothing, but the man had. He punched him in the face, and that is the only cheerful anecdote in this article.

Read more …

Maybe Germany and the US should make this very clear: “..the head of the BND foreign intelligence agency, who said the Turkish government had failed to convince it that Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen was responsible for the coup attempt.”

Spy Comments Proof Germany Supports Group Behind Attempted Coup: Erdogan (R.)

Doubts expressed by Germany’s spy agency regarding the role of a U.S.-based cleric in last year’s attempted coup in Turkey are proof that Berlin supports the organization behind the attempt, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s spokesman said on Sunday. Ibrahim Kalin made the comment in a live interview with broadcaster CNN Turk. On Saturday, German news magazine Der Spiegel published an interview with the head of the BND foreign intelligence agency, who said the Turkish government had failed to convince it that Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen was responsible for the coup attempt. “Turkey has tried to convince us of that at every level but so far it has not succeeded,” Bruno Kahl was quoted as saying. Kalin said those comments were proof that Berlin supported the coup. Germany and Turkey have been locked in a deepening diplomatic row after Berlin banned some Turkish ministers from speaking to rallies of expatriate Turks ahead of a referendum next month, citing public safety concerns.

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Erdogan needs an enemy to ‘protect’ his people from, or he won’t win the referendum.

Erdogan Accused Merkel Of Using Nazi Methods (DW)

Ankara launched a new wave of anti-German rhetoric on Sunday, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan calling out the German chancellor in a televised speech. “When we call them Nazis, they (Europe) get uncomfortable. They rally together in solidarity. Especially Merkel,” Erdogan said. “But you are right now employing Nazi measures,” he said, addressing Merkel directly and using the unofficial, personal way of saying “you” in Turkish. Erdogan has previously accused both the Netherlands and Germany of acting like Nazis after the two countries prevented Turkish ministers from holding campaign rallies on their territory. In his Sunday speech, Erdogan accused Merkel personally of using Nazi methods against his “Turkish brother citizens in Germany and brother ministers.”

The row with Europe “showed that a new page had been opened in the ongoing fight against our country,” he added. Berlin was decidedly not amused, saying that the Turkish president had “gone too far.” Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel told the Passauer Neue Presse that he warned Ankara against continuing this “shocking” rhetoric. “We are tolerant but we’re not stupid,” Gabriel said. “That’s why I have let my Turkish counterpart know very clearly that a boundary has been crossed here.” Ankara also responded furiously to a Kurdish rally in Frankfurt yesterday, where participants carried flags and symbols of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and called for a ‘no’ on the upcoming referendum. The Turkish government said the rally showed Berlin’s hypocrisy after halting similar events for the ‘yes’ camp. They also summoned the German ambassador over the incident.

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Someone should shut up Dijsselbloem. When you lose as big as he did in last week’s elections, you need to pipe down, disappear.

Dijsselbloem Calls For ESM To Be Turned Into A European IMF (R.)

The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) – the euro zone’s bailout fund – should ultimately be turned into a European version of the International Monetary Fund, the head of euro zone finance ministers told a German newspaper. “I think it would make a lot of sense for the euro zone bailout fund ESM to be developed into a European IMF in the medium to long term,” Jeroen Dijsselbloem told Monday’s edition of Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. He said that would also mean that Greece’s current “troika” of lenders – the European Commission, ECB and the IMF – would need to be broken up in the longer term. “The ECB feels increasingly uncomfortable in its troika role, and rightly so I think,” Dijsselbloem said, adding that the European Commission had other “important tasks” that it should concentrate on.He said the ESM should “build up the technical expertise that only the IMF has at the moment”.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has also proposed turning the ESM into a European monetary fund to improve the management of crises in Europe. Dijsselbloem said the institutions should maintain their roles for Greece’s current bailout and said he still expected the IMF to decide on a new programme, adding that it would be “most welcome” if this happened by the summer. Germany, which holds elections in September, wants the IMF on board before new money is lent to Athens. But it disagrees with the IMF over debt relief and the fiscal targets that Greece should maintain after the bailout programme ends in 2018. Dijsselbloem said he did not expect the current review of Greece’s bailout programme to be concluded quickly, adding that he did not think the institutions will complete it before a Eurogroup meeting in Malta in April.

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From a Jacobin article on the Dutch elections. Yeah, as I said last week, they’re trying to find ways to allow Dijsselbloem to ‘finish the job’ of finishing off Greece.

Defeat in Victory (Jacobin)

Under the current government, the PvdA’s rightward shift took on a whole new meaning. The party gained significant ground during the 2012 elections by arguing that a vote for Labour was the only way to avoid a VVD-led austerity government. Immediately after the elections, the party turned around and started negotiating the formation of a coalition with those very opponents. This government launched a massive austerity program, entailing almost fifty billion euros in cutbacks. PvdA ministers prided themselves on taking some of the most difficult posts, including social affairs and employment (PvdA leader Lodewijk Asscher) and finance (Jeroen Dijsselbloem).

A PvdA minister of the interior loyally executed the VVD’s anti-refugee policies. And Dijsselbloem not only enthusiastically applied the European Union’s fiscal stringency to the Netherlands but, as chairman of the Eurogroup, became its main enforcer against the Syriza government. Nothing could more fully demonstrate the PvdA’s neoliberal drift than the fact that Alexander Pechtold, leader of the liberal-democratic party Democrats 66 (D66), repeatedly suggested Dijsselbloem could continue to represent the Netherlands in Brussels “so that he can finish the job.” [..] The same anger and anxieties that created violent shocks to the political system — of which the PvdA’s collapse is only the latest example — also continue to drive large numbers to vote for allegedly safe parties that they wrongly believe will at least not make things worse.

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Greece spends more on pensions because it is the only fallback the economy has, they play the role that in other countries is played by unemployment benefits. The Troika knows this very well. It’s hard not to conclude that the lenders are trying to create a civil war in Greece.

Greece Edges Toward Another Bailout Crisis (BBG)

Greece is set to miss yet another deadline for unlocking bailout funds this week, edging closer to a repeat of the 2015 drama that pushed Europe’s most indebted state to the edge of economic collapse. Euro-area finance ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday will reiterate that the government of Alexis Tsipras has yet to comply with the terms attached to the emergency loans that have kept the country afloat since 2010. While Tsipras had promised the long delayed review of the latest bailout would be completed by March 20, a European official said last week that reaching an agreement even in April is now considered a long shot. The two sides are still far apart on reforms demanded by creditors in the Greek energy market and the government in Athens is resisting calls for additional pension cuts. And while discussions continue on how to overhaul the labor market, a finance ministry official said in an email to reporters on Friday that the issue can’t be solved in talks with technocrats.

Stalled bailout reviews and acrimony between successive governments and auditors representing creditor institutions are all too familiar themes in the seven-year crisis that has reduced the Greek economy by a quarter. Failure to resolve the latest standoff before the summer could mean that Greece may not be able to meet debt payments due in mid-July. Even as Greek bonds have performed better than most of its euro-area peers this year on expectations that the government will capitulate, uncertainty has weighed on economic activity, raising the risk that an additional bailout may be needed. Unemployment rose in the last quarter of 2016, the economy unexpectedly contracted, and a bleeding of deposits from the nation’s battered lenders resumed.

Read more …

Daniel Howden is a senior editor at Refugees Deeply. Good piece, but very incomplete. I’ll get back to that.

How Millions In Refugee Funds Were Wasted In Greece (K.)

For a story of waste and suffering, it’s notable that some of the worst decisions in response to the refugee crisis in Greece were born of good intentions. An archipelago of some 50 small refugee camps was scattered over Greece in preference to concentrating asylum seekers in larger ghettos. As an idea it had merits. In practice it was disastrous. Authorities still struggle to say how many camps there are. The Ministry of Migration Policy lists 39 but the UN says there may be more than 50. Many of these sites, which are in various states of closure, were clearly unfit for human habitation in the first place. The choice to build so many of them multiplied infrastructure costs for things like sewage systems built on private property or remote sites that will serve no public purpose in the future. Meanwhile, the Public Power Corporation is building substations at sites that will likely face closure.

The European Commission and its humanitarian operations agency ECHO are expected to cease support for all but 10 of Greece’s mainland camps in the near future. As the main donor, this will be decisive. There is similar confusion over how many asylum seekers remain in Greece from the 1.03 million who entered in 2015-16. Again the ministry and the UN disagree, with the former saying 62,000 and the latter nearer 50,000. European officials say privately that both numbers are overestimates. This shroud of confusion has contributed to a mess that will be remembered as the most expensive humanitarian response in history. Some $803 million flowed into Greece from the beginning of 2015, according to an investigation by Refugees Deeply, an independent reporting platform. The bulk of these funds were meant to be spent on services for the 57,000 refugees and migrants stranded in Greece when the borders shut one year ago. That translates to a rough cost per beneficiary of $14,000.

Nobody believes this has been money well spent. One senior aid official admitted that as many as $70 out of every $100 spent had been wasted. As anyone who followed the response in Haiti or Kosovo would affirm, the aid industry is inherently wasteful but this was excessive. The scale of this became obvious from November onward when refugees were pictured in tents in the snow and it sparked a blame game. None of the actors emerge with much credit. The UN refugee agency played mute witness to failures in refugee protection for fear of offending its second largest donor, the EU. The European Commission was content to make grandiose statements that exaggerated the funding it had committed, while doing nothing to correct the mistakes it witnessed on the ground. It also made promises on asylum service assistance that were not kept. The bigger the mess in Greece, the greater the deterrent and the stronger the message to future asylum seekers not to come this way.

Read more …

Wonderful. There is still hope. There are still people, even in governments, who are still people.

Avoiding Risky Sea Journey, Syrian Refugees Head To Italy ‘Pronto’ (AFP)

Just before midnight in a sleepy district of Beirut, dozens of Syrian refugees huddle in small groups around bulging suitcases, clutching their pinging cellphones and one-way tickets to Italy. “Torino! Pronto! Cappuccino!” They practise random Italian words in a schoolyard in the Lebanese capital’s eastern Geitawi neighbourhood, waiting for the buses that will take them to the airport, and onwards to their new lives in Italy. Under an initiative introduced last year by the Italian government, nearly 700 Syrian refugees have been granted one-year humanitarian visas to begin their asylum process in Italy. The programme is the first of its kind in Europe: a speedy third way that both avoids the United Nations lengthy resettlement process and provides refugees with a safe alternative to crammed dinghies and perilous sea crossings.

[..] A country of just four million people, Lebanon hosts more than one million Syrian refugees. For members of Mediterranean Hope, the four-person team coordinating Italy’s resettlement efforts from Lebanon, “humanitarian corridors” are the future of resettlement. The group interviews refugees many times before recommending them to the Italian embassy, which issues humanitarian visas for a one-year stay during which they begin the asylum process for permanent resettlement. “It’s safe and legal. Safe for them, legal for us, says Mediterranean Hope officer Sara Manisera. “After people cross the Mediterranean on the journey of death, they are put into centres for months while they wait. But with this programme, there are no massive centres, it costs less, and refugees can keep their dignity,” she tells AFP.

Read more …

Beware better weather conditions.

3,000 Migrants Rescued Off Libya On Sunday (AFP)

Around 3,000 migrants were rescued off the coast of Libya on Sunday as they tried to cross the Mediterranean to Europe, the Italian coast guard told AFP. “After some calm days, migrants are arriving in large numbers, taking advantage of a window of favorable weather,” said a coast guard official. The rescue was undertaken in 22 separate operations coordinated by the Italian coast guard. One participant was the Aquarius, a humanitarian ship run by the NGO SOS Mediterranean and Doctors Without Borders (MSF), which said it saved 946 people, including 200 unaccompanied minors. An MSF video showed three young children smiling and dancing on the ship to the sound of drumming. The migrants rescued by the Aquarius had been found drifting on nine wooden and rubber boats. According to the Italian government, 16,206 people have been rescued in the sea by Friday — compared to 11,911 by the same time last year.

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 March 3, 2017  Posted by at 1:41 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  14 Responses »


Leonardo da Vinci Head of a Woman 1470s

 

This is turning into a very rewarding series, it opens up vistas I could never have dreamed of. First, in “Not Nearly Enough Growth To Keep Growing”, I posited that peak wealth for the west, and America in particular, was sometime in the early ’70s or late ’60s of the last century.

That led to longtime Automatic Earth reader Ken Latta, who’s old enough to have been alive to see it all, writing, in “When Was America’s Peak Wealth?”, that in his view peak wealth for America was earlier, more like late ’50s to early ’60s, a carefree period for which Detroit provided the design, and the Beach Boys the soundtrack.

And I know, for those who wrote to me about this, that there’s quite a bit of myopia involved in focusing on the US, or even the western world in general, when discussing these things. But at the same time, we’re all at our best when talking about our own experiences, something this thread has made abundantly clear. That said, I would absolutely love to get a view from other parts of the world, China, Latin America, Africa, Eastern Bloc, on the same topic. I just haven’t received any yet.

What I’ve absolutely adored is how -previously- anonymous Automatic Earth readers and commenters have felt the urge to share their life experiences because of what’s been written. This happened especially after Ken’s follow-up to his initial article, “Peak American Wealth – Revisited”, which saw many of his contemporaries, as well as younger readers after I ‘poked’ them, relate their views.

Then there was distinguished emeritus professor Charles A. Hall, who took offense with neither Ken nor I including energy as an explicit factor in determining wealth. Of course he was right. I have the creeping suspicion he often is. So Charlie wrote “Peak Wealth and Peak Energy”. Which not only set us straight, it also generated a -privately- emailed response from Belgian scientists- also Automatic Earth readers- about work he has earlier published on EROI of for instance Spanish solar PV (2.45:1? That must hurt!). As of this morning, it looks as if this may lead to further cooperation. What’s not to love?

And then all this has fired up Ken Latta to write yet another article, this time on ‘freely available’ energy before the age of oil -and after it!-, in the form of human slavery. In all of its forms and shapes, including wage slavery. Is it a coincidence that at the end of the age of oil, America’s -former- middle class appears to be descending -once more- into wage and debt slavery? Or is something entirely else – and darker- going on, as Ken seems to suggest below: The currently observable rapid decline in demand for wage slaves just happens to coincide with global peak energy.

Here once more is Ken Latta:

 

 

Ken Latta: Responses to the recent Charles Hall posting at the Automatic Earth, “Peak Wealth and Peak Energy”, parried with the idea that slaves were the original black gold that allowed society to build great wealth. Not only is that a fair statement, but what the finest historians tell us is that it was always thus. It seems that whenever a cluster of mud huts went up, taking slaves was soon placed on the to-do list.

When uncoerced human power is the highest EROEI source available, usually not much gets done beyond procuring food and making basic necessities. For such societies, peak wealth occurs when a herd of grazing animals happens by. The first rule of civilization building is: find a bunch of people you can force to do things they wouldn’t otherwise be inclined to do.

In antebellum America (USA that is) there were three kinds of coerced laborers. Chattel slaves (held as real property) were the abducted Africans that made the plantation economy of the southern states possible. Something that was not well known was the practice of our colonial masters trading guns, powder and lead to the “Indians” to purchase captive natives for slave labor. They proved to be unwilling workers and frequently escaped back to their tribes.

Indentured servants were not property. Their coerced labor was legally imposed to work off a debt. Many of our ancestors got to the US by contracting to work for someone that would pay their fare. The main difference from chattel was that upon settlement of the debt they were free to leave.

 

That brings us to the thing known to wags in recent times as wage slavery. Us wrinklies may remember a bumper sticker [I can’t be fired, slaves must be sold]. Wage slaves are free to come and go and quit any time. They may also be fired. When they are trying not to be fired and not ready to quit, they must pretty much do as they are told and thus coerced labor. There could be a fourth class, in that some people refer to entrepreneurial souls as the self-exploited.

Once the infrastructure to fully exploit fossil fuels was in place, the most repugnant forms of forced servitude fell out of favor. The president known as Old Hickory outlawed chattel slavery. Not necessarily because he so loved his African constituents, who were politically considered to be two-thirds of a person, but in hopes they would do what they could to hinder the Confederate war effort.

The newly self-owned citizens often ended up doing much the same work as before except as either indentured or wage slaves. Most wage slaves have progressively gotten less back breaking work to do, though not necessarily less monotonous. Some have gotten to do quite exciting and satisfying work.

They also worked up to the point of having some effective leverage in dealing with their would-be slave masters.

 


James Gibson Group of contrabands [runaway slaves] at Foller’s house, Cumberland Landing, Virginia 1862

 

Wage slavery is categorically different in that its prevalence correlates with non animate sources of energy. Wage slaves have served as overseers of the energy slave economy according to the instructions of the bosses. Sadly, what this implies is that as fossil energy production declines, the demand for wage slaves also declines. We are observing it happening. The stagnation of wage earnings began at the time US oil production peaked. The currently observable rapid decline in demand for wage slaves just happens to coincide with global peak energy.

The actual rate of energy decline is accelerated by the associated trend of impoverishment of wage slaves and the growing pool of would-be wage slaves. And thus we will get to see the effect of Ugo Bardi’s Seneca Cliff. Named for 1st century Roman citizen Lucius Annaeus Seneca and based on this quotation:

“It would be some consolation for the feebleness of our selves and our works if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being; but as it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.”
– Lucius Anneaus Seneca, Letters to Lucilius, n. 91

Demand for energy is falling faster than production, causing even the mightiest producers to teeter on the edge of insolvency. The prediction a few years ago by petroleum geologist Jean Laherrere that the Bakken fields would be played out around 2020 appears to be on target.

The great NY Yankees catcher Yogi Berra is said to have quipped that “predictions are hard, especially about the future.” I agree, but sometimes you just have to throw caution to the wind.

Ugo Bardi, an estimable professor, and a whole pack of fellow academics joined by the usual crowd of entrepreneurial hustlers are pushing a pipe filled to the brim with Hopium that ruination can be avoided or mitigated by works worthy of a sorcerers apprentice.

We just have to assemble a vast armada of solar panels and wind turbines, plus a few billion tons of rechargeable batteries and turn every suitable topographic feature of the landscape into pumped storage, et voila!, energy slaves forever.

An admirable dream, but I’m gonna let that bandwagon go on down the street without me. I share the opinion that boat sailed for NeverneverLand quite a long time ago. What already exists and whatever still gets built will keep some lights on for awhile, but preservation of industrial civilization seems to me unattainable.

 

There must be a consequence right? Yes, I think there is and nobody is gonna like what I think it will be. At some threshold level of wage slave unwagedness the perfumed princes of the shrunken “protected class” (pace Peggy Noonan) will regretfully determine that a return to indentured servitude is necessary for the maintenance of moral fabric (and the preservation of their class). Rumor has it, this is already emerging as a feature of the injustice system. The next obvious step would be press gangs grabbing people off the streets and in their homes (hovels?) to sell at auction or gift to a powerful enemy, etc.

Sounds too far fetched? It is approximately what happened in Nazi Germany. The unemployed were rounded up and forced to work on public works projects. Jews weren’t just sent to camps to be gassed, they also went to camps next to industrial facilities to work as slaves to sustain the German economy and war effort. Even Auschwitz was a slave labor camp. Famous sign over the main gate says “Arbeit Macht Frei” (work makes free). If it isn’t already happening, something similar seems likely to emerge in the Nazi glorifying madhouse called Ukraine.

This was difficult to write. It can’t have been easy to read. But, to paraphrase one of recent history’s real shitheads, we must live the dark ages with the human species we have, not the one we might wish we had.

There is an ageless quip about not shooting the messenger, but who else ya gonna shoot when he’s the only one standing there.

Let the 10 minutes hate begin.