hot war Archives - The Automatic Earth

I told @jessebwatters that I believe the strategy to beat President Trump in the courtroom rather than the ballot box will backfire.

Don’t get me wrong – I’m no fan of Trump’s. I’m running against him because of his record: his lockdowns during Covid, his failure to root out… pic.twitter.com/wknEE0r8T8

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) May 31, 2024

Ballot access

Our Director of Content, Jonathan Hiller, breaks down the rigged ballot access game – the major way the duopoly tries to ensure Americans only have two choices when voting in presidential elections – and explains the behind-the-scenes efforts to give Americans the choice to vote… pic.twitter.com/NvJYudTt33

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) May 29, 2024

Polls

SHOCK, PANIC IN WASHINGTON as Biden's Youth Support Crashes: 25-Point Drop Among 18-24-Year-Olds from 2020 to 2024

CNN says, "Take a look here. Age 18 to 24. Biden won this group by 32 points last cycle over Donald Trump. Look at where the polling is now. Joe Biden still leads,… pic.twitter.com/XLoNE8WeQu

— Simon Ateba (@simonateba) May 30, 2024

Dmitry Suslov is a member of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, deputy director of World Economy and International Politics at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, and Valdai Club expert.

• It’s Time For Russia To Drop A Nuclear Bomb (Dmitry Suslov)

There’s every indication that the US and several of its allies may soon allow Ukraine to use Western weapons, including long-range missiles, to attack targets located within – how do we put this? – Russia’s internationally recognized borders. Or those that existed before the 2014 Maidan in Kiev. In America, as the New York Times recently reported, backers of the idea include Secretary of State Antony Blinken, most Republicans in Congress (including the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson), and many members of the foreign policy establishment, including Victoria Nuland, who recently resigned as deputy secretary of state. In Europe, Poland, the Baltic states, Germany’s main opposition party, the CDU/CSU, and some Western European figures, including the head of the UK Foreign Office, David Cameron, are agitating for the measure. Recently, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made a similar appeal, but he would not have made such statements if the issue had not already been considered on a practical level and had not received substantial support from Washington.

It has already come to the point where the topic has been discussed at the level of the heads of defense ministries of EU member states. Such a decision would take the conflict to a fundamentally different level, would mean the erasure of one of the brightest “red lines” that has existed since February 24, 2022, and signal the direct entry of the US and its NATO bloc into the war against Russia. Indeed, the strikes would be carried out on the basis of coordinates provided by Western intelligence systems; the decisions on these strikes would be taken by Western military officers (the media has repeatedly relayed confessions from Ukrainian military officers that every case of Western missile use is coordinated in advance by Western military advisers); and even the button would probably be pressed directly by Western military officers. It is no coincidence that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz justifies his reluctance to transfer Taurus missiles on the grounds that they would have to be operated by German, not Ukrainian, military personnel.

This is why denying Kiev such a right was the main condition for providing it with military aid and one of the main principles of Western involvement in the conflict from the very beginning. There are at least two reasons why the West is now discussing abandoning this principle. The first and main one is the increasingly difficult position of the Ukrainian army on the battlefield. Don’t forget that NATO leaders have been saying throughout that the outcome is of existential importance not only for Ukraine, but also for themselves, as it will determine the nature of the new world order. In other words, the West itself has given the Ukrainian conflict the status of a World War, and therefore Kiev’s defeat will mean its own strategic defeat, the final collapse of the Western-centered international order. Accordingly, the worse the situation for Kiev at the front, the greater the risks of escalation that the West is willing to take.

The second reason is Russia’s unwillingness to escalate relations with the West each time it crossed a ‘red line’ and became more involved in the conflict (supplying Kiev with tanks, aircraft and, eventually, long-range missiles). As a result, the fear of escalation, which was relatively high at the beginning of the military operation, has gradually diminished, as Western publications have repeatedly pointed out. Thus, the West has come to believe that the cost of Kiev’s defeat is far greater than the risks of a direct military confrontation with Russia, as a result of allowing Western weapons to strike deep into its ‘old’ territory. The voices of those who argue that even this time Moscow will not inflict direct military damage on Western countries are growing louder. This logic can inevitably lead to World War III. And if the West’s further involvement in the conflict in Ukraine is not stopped now, a full-scale “hot” war between Russia and NATO will become inevitable. Moreover, due to the superiority of the US and its 31 NATO members in the field of conventional weapons, this war will inevitably move to the nuclear level.

In a few months (or maybe even weeks), the same logic will be applied to stationing regular Western troops in Ukraine and then starting to shoot down Russian missiles over it. The Kiev regime has been making these proposals more and more insistently of late. According to even the current Russian nuclear doctrine (certainly a ‘peacetime’ doctrine in need of tightening), such a scenario would amount to official grounds for the use of nuclear weapons. There is only one way to prevent such a catastrophic development of events: a sharp increase in Moscow’s policy of deterrence and intimidation. The option of ‘freezing’ military operations along the current line of demarcation without any political conditions for Kiev and modalities for its security relations with the West is completely unacceptable.

“This is a continuation of the pattern in which the NATO forces recognize they are losing the war in Ukraine, with the fragile lines of defense breaking, and the NATO response is to escalate..”

• The West is Hell-Bent on Provoking Russia Into Hot War (Pepe Escobar)

The warning by President Putin could not be starker: “In the event of the use of long-range weapons, the Russian Armed Forces will again have to make decisions about expanding the sanitary zone further (…) Do they want global conflict? It seemed they wanted to negotiate [with us], but we don’t see much desire to do this.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov then came up with the appropriate metaphor to designate NATO’s ramped-up military outbursts: not only NATO is raising the degree of escalation but delving into a warlike “ecstasy”. It does not get more serious than that. “They”, as Putin alluded to, do seem to want “global conflict”. That’s at the heart of NATO’s new suicidal “ecstasy” strategy. For all their circumlocutions, NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have effectively greenlighted Kiev using Western weapons for attacks deep inside the Russian Federation.

The alleged debate, still ongoing, is just a “smokescreen” for the real objective: a pretext that could lead to WWIII. There’s no reason to think Kiev will stick to “limited” strikes against relatively unimportant targets. Instead, it is likely to target critical security infrastructure in hopes of provoking an unrelenting Russian response, which in turn would pave the way for NATO to invoke Article 5 and de facto engage in a Hot War. The escalation “ecstasy” defined by Peskov went out of control since a – secret – new batch of ATACMS was dispatched to Kiev earlier this year, complemented with longer-range ATACMS. Kiev has been using them for serious hits on Russian air bases and key air defense nodes. These ATACMS fire missiles at Mach 3 speed: a serious challenge even for the best Russian air defense systems. All that seems to point to a crucial decision enveloped in several layers of fog: as the incoming, cosmic NATO humiliation in the black soil of Novorossiya becomes self-evident day after day, the Western elites who really run the show are betting on provoking a full Hot War against Russia.

Richard H. Black, a former US senator from Virginia, offers a sobering analysis: “This is a continuation of the pattern in which the NATO forces recognize they are losing the war in Ukraine, with the fragile lines of defense breaking, and the NATO response is to escalate. This is not accidental, but very deliberate. It is not the first attack on the Russian nuclear triad. The ideological folks are seeing their world crumbling, after flying the rainbow flag over conservative countries and [waging] perpetual wars. They are frantic and could escalate to nuclear war to get out of the bind. They are taking a series of baby steps, and respond that ‘they don’t do anything in response,’ and so they keep taking baby steps until one of them lands on a land mine and we are into World War III. (…) Putin is very aware of the disconnect in the West, who keep saying he is just saber rattling, but he is not—he is informing the West of the dangerous reality.”

In Russia, Senator Dmitry Rogozin, a former head of Roscosmos, directly warned Washington: “We are not just on the threshold, but already on the edge, beyond which, if the enemy is not stopped in such actions, an irreversible collapse of the strategic security of the nuclear powers will begin.” General Evgeny Buzhinky advanced an ominous scenario: “I am sure that if the strikes of Taurus of ATACMS are very harmful for Russia, then I presume we will at least strike the logistical hub in the territory of Poland in Rzeszów” where the missiles are staged for delivery to Ukraine. The connection in this case would be irreversible: Russia hits Poland; NATO invokes Article 5; WW3.

“.. this is surely going to be a distinction without substance or meaning from Russia’s point of view, as it makes attacking Russia’s sovereign territory with US weaponry ‘allowable’ for the first time..”

• Biden Allows Ukraine To Use US Weapons To Attack Inside Russia (ZH)

Given the last days of momentum and growing pressure coming from some NATO countries, this was perhaps inevitable: the United States has now greenlighted Ukraine’s use of American-supplied weapons against Russian territory in a huge escalation which takes the world a big step closer to WW3 and nuclear-armed confrontation. Politico is reporting Thursday afternoon, “The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons, two U.S. officials and two other people familiar with the move said Thursday, a major reversal that will help Ukraine to better defend its second-largest city.” An anonymous US official was cited a saying, “The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them.”

The same official stipulated that the policy of not allowing long-range strikes inside Russia “has not changed.” However, this is surely going to be a distinction without substance or meaning from Russia’s point of view, as it makes attacking Russia’s sovereign territory with US weaponry ‘allowable’ for the first time. According to more details of what are expected to be the immediate implications: In effect, Ukraine can now use American-provided weapons, such as rockets and rocket launchers, to shoot down launched Russian missiles heading toward Kharkiv, at troops massing just over the Russian border near the city, or Russian bombers launching bombs toward Ukrainian territory. But the official said Ukraine cannot use those weapons to hit civilian infrastructure or launch long-range missiles, such as the Army Tactical Missile System, to hit military targets deep inside Russia.

It’s a stunning shift the administration initially said would escalate the war by more directly involving the U.S. in the fight. But worsening conditions for Ukraine on the battlefield –– namely Russia’s advances and improved position in Kharkiv –– led the president to change his mind.Ukraine has been complaining that all restrictions need to be taken off if it is to defend against Russia’s recent major offensive in Kharkiv, which was launched from across the border. For example, Russian artillery is able to fire from rear positions within the Belgorod region near the border. It meanwhile remains part of Moscow’s stated aim to push the border deeper into Ukraine to create a ‘buffer zone’ – making it harder for pro-Kiev forces to shell Russian towns and villages.

Politico’s fresh reporting is consistent with something Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday. While visiting Moldova – itself feeling the pressure of the war right next door – Blinken laid out that the US does not “encourage or enable” Ukrainian attacks inside Russia – but he then moved the goalpost by stressing the US would “adapt and adjust” this position based on developing battlefield needs. A reporter followed up by asking if he meant the White House will now support Ukrainian attacks inside Russia. Blinken responded with: “Adapt and adjust means exactly that.”

“Despite a nearly $1 trillion budget, the United States military is unable to secure a major shipping lane from a government they don’t officially recognize in one of the poorest countries in the world..”

• US Leaders Pushing for Three-Front War When They Can’t Handle One (Sp.)

On Monday, a bipartisan group of US representatives visited Taiwan against the protests of Beijing, promising Taiwanese lawmakers that the US-supplied weapons would be coming soon and publicly warning China from invading the island. The meeting, which included the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), was the latest in a string of meetings between US and Taiwanese officials that have taken place during the Biden administration. The saber-rattling of China by the United States is insanity, as it cannot handle the crises it is already facing, retired senior policy analyst Michael Maloof told Sputnik’s The Critical Hour on Wednesday. “We don’t have the means to fight that [one-front] war, let alone, a three-front war. Right now, we’re doing very poorly. The United States is doing very poorly just trying to work through a proxy against Russia,” Maloof explained.

“If you have a direct confrontational approach to war with Russia, then China and… Iran, there’s no way the United States is going to be able to sustain that. On Wednesday, Yemeni Houthi forces announced that they had brought down a US MQ-9 Reaper reconnaissance and strike drone. The US claimed that the drone was lost due to technical problems but it was the sixth such drone to be lost over Yemen since the Houthi movement began blockading the Red Sea against ships it says are connected to Israel. Despite a nearly $1 trillion budget, the United States military is unable to secure a major shipping lane from a government they don’t officially recognize in one of the poorest countries in the world, resulting in a 50% reduction of shipping through the Suez Canal compared to last year. In 2022, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), then speaker of the House, visited Taiwan against the protests of Beijing. Then, US President Joe Biden claimed he did not authorize her visit, but this statement caused some reasonable doubts.

The next year, then-Taiwanese head of administration Tsai Ing-wen traveled to California where she and other Taiwanese politicians met with then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). Again, US and Taiwanese officials attempted to soften the diplomatic outcry from China by claiming it was just part of a layover on her tour of Central America. Again, China didn’t buy it. On this latest trip, Washington provided no pretenses. The bipartisan delegation met with the newly elected head of Taiwanese administration and publicly promised them weapons and further support. “There should be no doubt, there should be no skepticism in the United States, Taiwan or anywhere in the world, of American resolve to maintain the status quo and peace in the Taiwan Strait,” Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY), the co-chair of the Taiwan caucus said while meeting Taiwan’s new head of administration Lai Ching-te. “If the island in an unprovoked manner was invaded, then it would be to the American people and the United States Congress and my committee that has the power to declare war, how to deal with that,” McCaul said.

“..The parties should return to diplomacy and start talks, but Macron is preparing French society for the announcement he is sending troops to Ukraine, Le Pen said..”

• Le Pen: Backing of Ukraine Strikes Inside Russia Step Toward World War (Sp.)

French President Emmanuel Macron’s support for Ukraine’s targeting of military facilities in Russia’s internationally recognized territory is another step toward a world war, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French right-wing National Rally party, said on Thursday. “Macron wants France to enter the war. This statement is an additional step in that direction. I am against it and I think it creates an enormous risk for the security of our citizens,” Le Pen told French radio broadcaster Franceinfo. The right-wing politician only supports the supplying of defensive weapons to Kiev, she added. “Similarly to the United States and Germany, I am against permitting Ukraine to use Western-supplied weapons to strike targets on the territory of Russia. This is a mechanism for entering the third world war. I am against anything that might create the risk of a global conflict, with France being on its front line,” she added.

The parties should return to diplomacy and start talks, but Macron is preparing French society for the announcement he is sending troops to Ukraine, Le Pen said. “It is necessary to find a way towards a dialogue. Everyone knows that the victory will not be a military one. The only way is to find paths for negotiations. We have to provide Ukraine with military aid without sending troops. But Macron is preparing us to send military personnel to Ukraine. It is another concerning step,” the politician told the radio station. France does not try to play a role of a mediator anymore while other countries are doing this, she said. “No one except Ukraine and Russia can resolve this [conflict], but some countries might try to bring their positions closer. Others are doing that instead of us, and France is not doing that,” Le Pen said On Tuesday, Macron said that Ukraine should be allowed to strike military sites in Russia. The supply of long-range weapons to Ukraine capable of hitting Russian military facilities is not an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, he said.

“..high-ranking Swedish and Finnish officials are being trained, “like diligent students,” to repeat the “Russophobic mantras of their American patrons without hesitation..”

• US Preparing Major Propaganda Campaign Against Russia In Scandinavia (RT)

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service claims that the US is preparing a major propaganda campaign aimed at sparking fear among the population of Sweden and Finland about Moscow’s alleged “territorial appetites.” In a press release on Thursday, the service claimed that the US State Department, “gripped with anti-Russian hysteria,” has transformed into an “unprincipled propaganda mouthpiece” that is now striving to turn the entire international community against Russia. The first targets of this propaganda machine, according to Moscow, are the residents of Sweden and Finland, which recently joined NATO.

The Foreign Intelligence Service has claimed that, under the patronage of the US State Department, a series of short videos will soon flood social media networks and instant messengers to demonstrate “the ‘seriousness of the Russian threat’ and drum up ‘universal fear’ of Moscow’s ‘territorial appetites’” among the Scandinavian population. The campaign, according to the service, will be presented as a “spiritual impulse” of a team of independent experts and journalists, and will aim to spread panic among the residents of Sweden and Finland like the times of McCarthyism in the US. After that, Washington supposedly expects top officials in the two countries to “start throwing themselves out of the windows, shouting ‘the Russians are coming, the Russians are coming! They are everywhere.’”

At the same time, high-ranking Swedish and Finnish officials are being trained, “like diligent students,” to repeat the “Russophobic mantras of their American patrons without hesitation,” the service wrote. Specifically, it mentioned the commander-in-chief of the Swedish Armed Forces, Micael Byden, who has recently claimed that Russia is planning to invade the island of Gotland to establish control in the Baltic Sea; and Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who has been claiming that Russia poses an “existential threat” and has insisted that the only way to achieve peace is “through the battlefield.” Moscow has repeatedly stated that it has no plans to attack any NATO nations or revise its existing borders with the West. Russian President Vladimir Putin has dismissed such talk as “nonsense,” and an attempt to scare local citizens “to extract additional expenses from people.”

“..The crime has a maximum sentence of four years in prison. That said, Merchan could also opt for home confinement, probation, supervised release, fines or community service..”

The appeal could take years. They just want to be able to call him a convicted felon.

• Trump Responds After NY Guilty Verdict (ZH)

Former President Donald Trump has been found guilty on all 34 counts in his New York ‘hush money’ trial. The outcome makes him the first former president to become a convicted felon. Trump reportedly stared ahead motionless as the verdict was read. The trial centered on allegations that Trump falsified business records in order to conceal a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 US election. Prosecutors under Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg argued that Trump oversaw a scheme to influence the 2016 election by using Trump Organization records to conceal the payments. “Everything Mr. Trump and his cohorts did in this case is cloaked in lies,” said prosecutor Joshua Steinglass. “The evidence is literally overwhelming.” “This is a rigged, disgraceful trial,” Trump said in response, adding “The real verdict will be on November 5.”

Judge Juan Merchan will now decide Trump’s sentence on July 11 – days before Republicans are set to select him as the 2024 nominee. The crime has a maximum sentence of four years in prison. That said, Merchan could also opt for home confinement, probation, supervised release, fines or community service. “In New York today, we saw that no one is above the law,” reads a statement. “Donald Trump has always mistakenly believed he would never face consequences for breaking the law for his own personal gain. But today’s verdict does not change the fact that American people face a simple reality. There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box. Convicted felon or not, Trump will be the Republican nominee for president.”

“It’s the people that surround him in the office. They’re smart. They’re fascists, they’re communist, but they’re smart.”

• ‘Mother Teresa Could Not Beat Those Charges’ – Trump (RT)

Former US President Donald Trump has decried the charges against him in the Manhattan hush-money trial as of the kind that even Mother Teresa would not beat. Trump made the comment while speaking to reporters on Wednesday after the jury started deliberating the verdict. The ex-president and presumptive Republican nominee in the 2024 election faces a litany of accusations in several separate cases. The proceedings, which concluded on Tuesday, revolved around hush money that the ex-president’s former attorney, Michael Cohen, claims to have paid in 2016 to adult film actress Stormy Daniels to keep her quiet about an affair with the then-candidate. Speaking with the press after his fate was handed over to the 12 New Yorkers constituting the jury, Trump reiterated his claims that the trial was politically motivated and meant to disrupt his bid to retake the White House.

“Mother Teresa could not beat those charges, but we’ll see,” he fumed. “We’ll see how we do. It’s a very disgraceful situation.” He criticized judge Juan Merchan for supposedly being “conflicted and corrupt,” placing a gag order on him and allegedly barring some of the people that Trump’s defense wanted to testify from doing so. The judge significantly limited what election law expert Brad Smith, a former member of the Federal Election Commission, could talk about during the trial. Merchan said he wanted to avoid a “battle of the experts” in the courtroom. Trump claimed that “the whole thing is rigged” and amounts to weaponization of the justice system by the Democratic Party against its political opponent. The trial has kept him from campaigning, he complained. “This is all because of Joe Biden,” he claimed, pointing the finger at the incumbent president. “It’s the people that surround him in the office. They’re smart. They’re fascists, they’re communist, but they’re smart.”

“Putting aside that the federal government found no basis to impose a civil fine, let alone bring a criminal charge, the court barred a legal expert who could have shown that no such violation occurred. The jury does not know that. Instead, the judge allowed them to be repeatedly told a false fact that could make it difficult for anyone to acquit.”

• Canned Hunt: The Trump Jury is Out But is the Case in the Bag? (Turley)

Today the jury began its deliberations in the trial of former president Donald Trump. Before jurors left, however, Judge Juan Merchan framed their deliberations in a way that seemed less like a jury deliberation than a canned hunt. For many of us, the Trump trial has seemed otherworldly, a vaguely familiar proceeding where common elements of a trial seem to have been flipped. Even before the jury instructions, the trial was controversial for both liberal and conservative commentators. At the start of closing arguments, most honest observers were still wondering what the prosecutors were alleging as to the crime that Trump was allegedly concealing with the falsification of business records. Then came the closing arguments. Around the country, it is standard for the government to go first with a closing to allow the defense to respond. The government is then given the privilege of a rebuttal after the defense rests.

In New York, the defense must go first, giving the government free rein over its closing with no risk of contradiction from the defense. With the exception of objections, any abusive or improper arguments are left to the judge to address.In the case of Judge Merchan, that protection was all but absent as the prosecution engaged in flagrant violations from offering testimony on unestablished facts to directly contradicting prior instructions. In one of the most egregious moments, Prosecutor Joshua Steinglass told the jury that it is an established fact that former Trump counsel Michael Cohen committed a federal election law violation on the direct orders of Donald Trump. Merchan had repeatedly said that Cohen’s earlier plea could not be used to imply the guilt of Trump. Merchan overruled an objection and Steinglass proceeded, as he did earlier in trial, to repeat the false statement. Merchan did nothing as Steinglass told the jury that Hope Hicks cried in court because she knew that she had destroyed Trump’s defense (Hicks has never explained why she cried).

Merchan did nothing as Steinglass falsely told the jury that the media and political campaigns do not do what Trump did in seeking to kill and plant stories. (This ignored, for example, that the Clinton campaign did precisely that repeatedly in the very same election, including with the false Russian collusion allegations).mIt was only when Steinglass repeatedly instructed the jury on the law that Merchan finally sustained objections, at the end of his closing arguments. So going into the deliberations, the court allowed the jury to be told repeatedly that there were federal campaign violations committed by Trump. That is not true. Putting aside that the federal government found no basis to impose a civil fine, let alone bring a criminal charge, the court barred a legal expert who could have shown that no such violation occurred. The jury does not know that. Instead, the judge allowed them to be repeatedly told a false fact that could make it difficult for anyone to acquit.

In every trial, there are always two opinions: the prosecution and the defense. In this trial there are three: anti-Trump, pro-Trump, and anti-Trump but concerned about the rule of law..”

• Hush Money Trial To Boost Trump’s Odds Of Winning, Taking House, Senate (Every)

The Financial Times main headline is that ‘NATO has just 5% of air defences needed to protect eastern flank.’ No, NATO doesn’t have an eastern flank but an eastern FRONT: it faces east, so its vulnerable flanks are to the north and south. Regardless, it urgently needs to spend 20x more on air defence alone. Meanwhile, Poland is reinforcing its border with Belarus and Russia, as the former withdrew from the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe treaty, and the Baltics and Scandinavia plan a ‘drone wall’. Many EU countries will also now allow Ukraine to use their donated weapons to attack Russian forces inside Russia proper. Militarily, that’s the best strategy; geopolitically, it m”eans the West escalating to deescalate – which Russia will only mirror. The UK Telegraph is running a series of articles starting today on the topic ‘What if Putin Wins?’ The first argues, “A Russian victory would unleash a cascade of events triggering irreversible changes, pushing the world to the brink of chaos.”

“The first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers.” (Dick the Butcher, Henry VI, Part 2). We can also expect imminent market headlines from the Trump trial in New York, where the jury are still out. In every trial, there are always two opinions: the prosecution and the defense. In this trial there are three: anti-Trump, pro-Trump, and anti-Trump but concerned about the rule of law. Alan Dershowitz, a Democrat, has been withering in his criticism of how this trial has been prosecuted. Legal expert Jonathan Turley notes it “has seemed otherworldly, a vaguely familiar proceeding where common elements of a trial seem to have been flipped,” listing the numerous ways normal practice has not been followed – which those pro-Trump naturally allege have occurred for nefarious political purposes. Given how the judge –‘The Merchan of Vengeance’– instructed the jury, experts think the most likely outcomes are a hung jury or a conviction.

If it’s the former, Trump will gain huge publicity, and cry he was wronged by Democrat ‘lawfare’; and if he’s convicted, that is arguably even more the case (even if the latter will prompt a rapid appeal, potentially all the way up to the Supreme Court, which many observers think will then see the verdict overturned). To presume, as White House strategists must do(?) that being able to call Trump a “convicted felon” on TV will necessarily dent his electoral prospects rather than boosting them may be to totally misread the current situation, as in 2016. This matters for markets more than some reading the very Beige Book realize. Not only could this trial potentially increase the likelihood of Trump winning in 2024, which would already shift the US, the world, and world markets, but it might boost his odds of taking the Senate and the House too, ensuring that he could shift them all if he wants to. It might also convince him that he needs to (as the Wall Street Journal says Elon Musk might take an advisory role at the White House were Trump to win: what might that mean for US policy: Orange Cybertrucks? CyberTrump? Trumpcoin? Camp Trump on Mars?)

More broadly, it’s a further dent in the reputation of US law just as (contrived?) media controversy rages over a Supreme Court judge for flying a flag, again politicizing the highest echelons of the US justice system. Following previous controversial court cases involving Trump there, it doesn’t do New York many favors as an investment destination unless one’s business is in the anti-Trump camp. Yet that points to a polarization in the US mirroring past ones in emerging markets. Indeed, Dershowitz and Turley fear precisely the political rule BY law, not OF law if precedent is set: could future presidents find partisan judges and juries to rustle up court cases to take out potential opposition legally, as happens elsewhere? That still seems unlikely given the checks and balances in the US system, but for some this is all a worrying step in that direction. US businesses and markets players, even those anti-Trump, should be aware that those kinds of legal environments are partly why so much foreign capital ends up in the US in the first place.

Moreover, when The Economist is worrying about the collapse of global liberal institutions, and the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice have mired themselves in controversy, splitting the West internally and vs. the Global South in a new Cold War –as Mexico joins South Africa’s case vs. Israel at the ICJ, The Australian says “The ICC issuing warrants for the arrest of Netanyahu and his defence minister is grandstanding by this toothless, bloated court”– the last thing the West needs is for its rule of law to be brought into ill-repute. ‘Let’s kill all the lawyers’ is how you destabilise things in Shakespeare’s eyes: but so is letting all the lawyers kill us.

Too early for any set roles. But big takeaway: “Musk and Trump speak on the phone several times per month..” As Mike Benz said in the video posted yesterday: “if it’s true, it would be the most natural pairing since peanut butter & jelly.”

• Musk Denies Report Of Trump Admin Advisory Role (ZH)

There have not been any discussions of a role for me in a potential Trump Presidency

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 30, 2024

Musk denied today’s report that he’s been in discussions about a possible advisory role in a future Trump administration. “There have not been any discussions of a role for me in a potential Trump Presidency,” Musk posted on X in response to user Herbert Ong, who posted a CNBC segment discussing the report. * * * In a notable shift from past acrimony, Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, has engaged in discussions with Elon Musk about a possible advisory role for the Tesla mogul should Trump retake the White House, the Wall Street Journal reports. The move could see Musk influencing policies on border security and the economy. Musk, known for his outspoken views and innovative leadership at Tesla and SpaceX, has increasingly voiced his concerns over national issues, aligning more with conservative viewpoints in recent months. Alongside billionaire investor Nelson Peltz, Musk has also taken a proactive stance against what they perceive as electoral vulnerabilities, briefing Trump on a data-centric project aimed at curbing voter fraud—a topic of significant controversy and debate.

“The discussion around the advisory role and voting project took place at a March gathering at Montsorrel, Peltz’s sprawling oceanfront estate in Palm Beach, Fla., with a group of wealthy and powerful friends, some of the people familiar with the discussions said. The New York Times earlier reported the meeting had occurred, but details of the discussions haven’t been previously disclosed. As guests nibbled on a Sunday morning breakfast of eggs, bacon and fresh fruit served by Peltz’s household staff, Peltz, Trump and Musk held forth on the November elections, criticizing Biden’s stewardship of the country, the people said.” -WSJ. The discussions, still in preliminary stages and without definitive roles, would mark a notable pivot in Trump’s strategy – embracing influential tech and business leaders to bolster his campaign promises of economic revitalization and stringent border controls. The meeting with Peltz suggests a concerted effort to integrate Musk’s technological prowess and worldview into the fabric of Trump’s policy initiatives.

According to the report, “the role hasn’t been fully hammered out and might not happen.” During a March interview, former CNN host (and failed X contributor) Don Lemon asked Musk about the meeting with Trump – to which Musk replied: “I was at a breakfast at a friend’s place and Donald Trump came by—that’s it,” adding “I went to a friend of mine’s house and he said, ‘Donald Trump’s coming by for breakfast, just so you know.’ I said, ‘Okay, fine.'” “Let’s just say he did most of the talking,” Musk said of Trump – adding that the former president did not ask him for donations, nor help with mounting legal bills. Musk doesn’t simply want to write a check to a super PAC – he wants to use his clout within elite business and technology circles to steer the US in a better direction.

Musk’s potential involvement in Trump’s orbit marks a stark contrast from their previous public exchanges, which included a series of sharp criticisms and disagreements over policies like the Paris climate accord. However, their relationship has evolved, with Musk not only reevaluating his political allegiance—publicly shifting his support to the Republican party in 2022—but also seeking to exert his influence through more direct and personal engagements with Trump. Now, according to the report, Musk and Trump speak on the phone several times per month. The potential collaboration also extends to Musk’s broader ambitions in the political arena, where he has expressed dissatisfaction with the current administration’s direction, particularly criticizing the so-called “woke mind virus” that he argues undermines societal cohesion and economic progress. Musk says he’s a centrist, who wants secure borders, safe & clean cities, and to stop ‘sterilization below age of consent,’ among other things.

He wants it denied so he can appeal it?!

• Judge Denies Hunter Biden’s ‘Frivolous’ Bid to Halt Delaware Gun Case (ET)

A federal judge on Wednesday denied Hunter Biden’s bid to halt the prosecution of his Delaware gun case, deeming it unconvincing and “frivolous.” U.S. District Judge Maryellen Noreika issued the ruling on Wednesday, rejecting Mr. Biden’s request to enjoin the investigation led by Special Counsel David Weiss. Mr. Biden contended that Mr. Weiss’s appointment violated the Appropriations Clause, arguing that he is not an “independent counsel” and was not approved by Congress. “The Court should enjoin the Special Counsel from continuing to fund his investigation and prosecution of Mr. Biden without an appropriation from Congress or promptly deny the motion so it can be appealed,” Mr. Biden’s motion, filed on May 14, stated. The judge found no merit in Mr. Biden’s claims, stating that the use of permanent appropriations to fund special counsels has been well-established and previously upheld.

“Mr. Weiss was lawfully appointed,” under relevant statutes, “to serve as special counsel to conduct investigations and prosecutions relating to this criminal matter,” Judge Noreika wrote in her decision, “and he is an ‘independent counsel’ appointed pursuant to ‘other law’ within the mining of the permanent appropriation.” Judge Noreika ruled that Mr. Biden’s motion was not presented as a “serious request” but rather as a necessary procedural step before he could appeal. Mr. Biden contended that Mr. Weiss lacked authority from Congress because he “is not an independent counsel and that is by design.” In their response motion, the prosecution highlighted that Mr. Biden’s attempts to claim Appropriations Clause violations had been struck down in two district and two circuit courts, using the same arguments. Additionally, they contended that Mr. Biden “now offers no new facts or law” to support his motion for an injunction.

Mr. Biden acknowledged that his motion relied on previously rejected arguments. He asked the judge to either enjoin Mr. Weiss “or promptly deny the motion so it can be appealed.” His motion filed on May 14 stated that if the district court found against him regarding his argument of Appropriations Clause violations, “as it did previously,” then he would “have the basis” to take it to the Third Circuit “to address this issue when considering Mr. Biden’s forthcoming petition for rehearing and rehearing en banc.” In calling his request unserious, the judge highlighted the motion’s length, at four and a half pages, and noted that half of it was dedicated to “explaining why the Third Circuit would have jurisdiction over an appeal should this Court deny the requested injunction.” “The Court has no reason to believe that Defendant’s inevitable appeal of this denial of his motion for an injunction is any more meritorious than his prior efforts,” Judge Noreika wrote.

“Zelensky recently sacked several government and military officials that the US was “working closely” with, without much of an explanation..”

• ‘Paranoid’ Zelensky Lashing Out At US – FT (RT)

Vladimir Zelensky has instructed Ukrainian officials to publicly criticize US President Joe Biden for not attending the upcoming “peace summit” in Switzerland, the Financial Times has reported, citing documents from Kiev. Neither Biden nor his VP Kamala Harris is scheduled to attend the gathering in Lucerne, where Kiev hopes to win non-Western countries to its “peace formula” for resolving the conflict with Russia. According to FT, the Ukrainian leader specifically instructed MPs and officials in a May 26 memo to “pile public pressure” on Biden, as well as Chinese President Xi Jinping, for not attending the summit. “It is unlikely that the world will understand President Biden and President Xi if they do not join in the realization of such undeniably just goals and [in] bringing peace closer,” said the memo, as quoted by the outlet. While China has shown understanding for Russia in the conflict, the US has been one of Ukraine’s most prominent supporters.

According to FT, however, there have been “many points of friction” between the leadership in Kiev and Washington lately, as Russian troops have continued to advance on the battlefield. Zelensky recently sacked several government and military officials that the US was “working closely” with, without much of an explanation. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent visit to Kiev, during which he lectured Zelensky on corruption and played rock music on stage at a club, also reportedly rubbed the Ukrainian leadership the wrong way. One senior Kiev official described the feeling in Zelensky’s office as “paranoia” and said the Ukrainian leader had “deep anxiety” about both the military situation and the peace summit, which is scheduled for mid-June in Lucerne.

Another Ukrainian official told FT that Zelensky has become more “emotional and nervous” over the situation at the front, convinced that the US is eager to start talks with Russia because Washington wants the conflict “to go away before the [US] election.” Polls currently show Biden losing support as he faces a rematch with former US President Donald Trump in November. Zelensky is “very irritated” with Biden, said one member of his government, noting that many Ukrainian officials are worried about Kiev “openly provoking” the White House. “What do you say in America? Do not bite the hand that feeds you,” a fourth Ukrainian government official told FT. Zelensky has infuriated Washington before. His social media rant last July, after NATO did not formally invite Ukraine to join, reportedly almost caused a backlash from the White House. In the end, however, the US and its allies continued to fund Kiev’s war effort.

“You must choose between Zionism and cynicism, between unity and division, between responsibility and neglect – and between victory and disaster.”

• Israel’s Gantz Moves To Dissolve Knesset, Hold New Elections (ZH)

Israeli war cabinet minister Benny Gantz is mounting a new challenge against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the coalition government, on Thursday announcing his centrist party is proposing holding a parliamentary vote on dissolving the Knesset. “The head of the National Union Party, Pnina Tamano-Shata, has put forward a bill to dissolve the 25th Knesset. This follows the request of party leader Minister Benny Gantz to move forward in broad agreement to an election before October, a year since the massacre,” the fresh statement from Gantz’s party said. Gantz had already previously verbalized a plan to hold new elections by October, and two weeks ago he demanded in a provocative ultimatum that Netanyahu has until June 8 to present a clear strategic plan for the Gaza war. Below is the outline that Gantz previously articulated while lambasting the lack of a clear plan from Netanyahu:

”Bring our hostages home, topple the Hamas regime, strip the Gaza Strip, and ensure Israeli security control. Alongside maintaining Israeli security control, establish an American-European-Arab-Palestinian administration to civilly manage the Strip and lay the foundation for a future alternative to Hamas and Abbas, return the residents of the north to their homes by September 1, and rehabilitate the Western Negev, promote normalization with Saudi Arabia as part of an overall move that will create an alliance with the free world and the Arab world against Iran and adopt a service plan that will lead to all Israelis serving the state and contributing to the supreme national effort.” Gantz had continued in that prior statement: “The people of Israel are watching you. You must choose between Zionism and cynicism, between unity and division, between responsibility and neglect – and between victory and disaster.”

Huge anti-Netanyahu protests have continued in Tel Aviv and in front of government buildings and even Netanyahu’s residence, and have been led by hostage victims’ families. They are outraged there’s been lack of clarity or prioritization of getting the rest of the hostages home, also as truce negotiations with Hamas have all but collapsed. It is anything but clear if Gantz has the votes to dissolve Knesset, but Netanyahu’s Likud party quickly shot back on Thursday with a terse statement: “The dissolution of the unity government is a reward for [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar, a capitulation to international pressure and a fatal blow to efforts to free our hostages.” But Gantz Tamano-Shata party reasoned that “The 7th of October is a disaster that requires us to go back in order to receive the public’s trust, to establish a broad and stable unity government that can lead us safely in the face of the enormous challenges in security, the economy and, above all, in Israeli society. Submitting the bill now will allow us to bring it up in the current session.”

“..we have agreed with our Chinese partners to increase cooperation to counteract Washington’s irresponsible behavior, which undermines international stability..”

• Sergey Lavrov Full Interview (Sp.)

Russian strategic objects, including nuclear ones, may come under threat from American short-range missiles if the US deploys ground-based intermediate and shorter-range missiles in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. What additional nuclear deterrence measures might Moscow take in this case? Would a reciprocal response from the Russian side be sufficient?
Sergey Lavrov: You are undoubtedly correct that the deployment of American ground-based intermediate and shorter-range missiles (INF) in the mentioned regions would pose a serious security challenge for us. This issue is not only significant for us. In a joint statement following the recent visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to China, it was noted that such destabilizing actions by the US represent a direct threat to both our country and China. Therefore, we have agreed with our Chinese partners to increase cooperation to counteract Washington’s irresponsible behavior, which undermines international stability. The implementation of US plans to deploy ground-based INF missiles will not go unanswered by us. Specifically, in this scenario, the abandonment of unilateral self-imposed restrictions introduced by Russia after a US withdrawal from the INF Treaty is inevitable. Additional steps in the field of nuclear deterrence are also not ruled out, as forward-deployed American missiles could target our command posts and locations of our nuclear forces. Decisions on these matters are within the competence of the president of the Russian Federation.

Is Russia considering increasing joint military exercises with China in response to US actions in the Asia-Pacific Region?
Sergey Lavrov: The foundation of our military cooperation with China is a high level of mutual trust. Russian-Chinese collaboration aims to strengthen international security and is conducted in accordance with international law. Our joint efforts are not directed against third countries. However, both Russia and our Chinese friends must consider the negative military-political trends in the Asia-Pacific region and take measures to mitigate their effects. We agree on the importance of enhancing defense cooperation not only bilaterally but also within multilateral formats. This understanding was recorded in the joint statement signed following the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to China. Specifically, this involves expanding the scale of joint exercises and combat training, conducting naval and aerial patrols, and developing joint response capabilities.

With the end of Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidential term, does Russia see any forces in Ukraine with whom it is ready to engage in dialogue for peace? Is there any understanding of when the special military operation might be concluded?
Sergey Lavrov: In Kiev, the “party of war” is in power, striving, at least rhetorically, to defeat Russia “on the battlefield.” Under these conditions, a dialogue for peace is hard to imagine. Furthermore, since September 30, 2022, a legal ban on negotiations with Russia’s leadership has been in place in Ukraine. Regarding Volodymyr Zelensky’s legal status after May 20, when his presidential term ended, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke clearly on this matter at a press conference in Minsk on May 24. Let’s hope that sooner or later, political forces will emerge in Ukraine that care about the interests of the people. For now, there is no other option but to continue the special military operation until its goals are achieved.

Is there a possibility to speed up the process of political settlement of the situation around Ukraine?
Sergey Lavrov: Theoretically, yes. For this to happen, the West must stop supplying Ukraine with weapons, and Kiev must cease hostilities. The sooner this occurs, the quicker a political resolution will begin. We have repeatedly stated, including at the highest level, that Russia remains open to negotiations. However, it is crucial to understand that we seek peace, not just a ceasefire. There is no point in granting the opponent a pause, which they will use once again for regrouping and rearming. Negotiations must be based on the principle of indivisible security and the realities on the ground.

Ryan Cole
https://twitter.com/i/status/1795817867167826293

Gabriel Shipton

Julian Assange brother explains to RFK Jr’s running mate, Nicole Shanahan, how Biden is the reason Edward Snowden is stuck in Russia:

“The person who was calling these countries to stop these asylum requests was Joe Biden.”

“It was his mission to keep Snowden in Russia because… pic.twitter.com/gKB1eYxElC

— End Tribalism in Politics (@EndTribalism) May 29, 2024

Elephants and Oranges
https://twitter.com/i/status/1795938706278293725

Tom and Jerry

Tom and Jerry's friendship.

pic.twitter.com/oyT6K4lwXk

— Figen (@TheFigen_) May 30, 2024

Late for work

Imagine telling your boss this was the reason you were late for work. pic.twitter.com/qWc2wJR3jS

— Nature is Amazing ☘️ (@AMAZlNGNATURE) May 29, 2024

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Debt Rattle August 31 2023

Aug 312023

August 31, 2023 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 9:24 am Finance Tagged with: assassination, BRICS, Gabon, hot war, impeachment, LNG, Niger, Trump, Tucker Carlson 45 Responses »

Pablo Picasso The Dream 1932

• US Headed For ‘Hot War’ With Russia – Tucker Carlson (RT)

• Biden Looks to Prevent Future President From Ending Ukraine War (Antiwar)

• Trump Vows To Lock Up Political Enemies If He Returns To White House (G.)

• Ukraine’s Fate Sealed Long Before Failing Counteroffensive (Scott Ritter)

• Ukraine To Review All Draft Exemptions – Zelensky (RT)

• French Troops Reportedly Given Until September 3 to Withdraw From Niger (Sp.)

• Coup In Gabon, Situation In West Africa A Big Issue For Europe – Borrell (RT)

• EU Imports Of Russian LNG Leap By 40% Since Ukraine Invasion (G.)

• Expanded BRICS Set to De-Dollarize the World, Control Global Energy Supply (ET)

• What if Biden Backs Out of the Race? (RCW)

• Majority of Voters Are Skeptical of Possible Biden Impeachment (Manley)

• Hunter Biden Helped Plan State Dinners During Dad’s VP Days (Sp.)

One thing you can not do today is not watch the Tucker Carlson interview. I picked some snippets AND the full interview.

“They can’t lose. They will do anything to win. So how do they do that? They’re not going to do COVID again…They’re going to go to war with Russia is what they’re going to do. There will be a hot war between the United States and Russia within the next year…They need to declare war footing in order to assume war powers in order to win. I believe that and I think all the evidence suggests that’s true.”
https://twitter.com/i/status/1696853567942819962

TUCKER ON TRUMP: “We are speeding towards assassination obviously. — They have decided that there's something about Trump that's so threatening to them, they just can't have it”

pic.twitter.com/g0tVLXJRGb

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) August 30, 2023

https://twitter.com/i/status/1696842931372429744

Full interview:

Rogan Anthony

NEW: Oliver Anthony and Joe Rogan call out Biden, Barack Obama & Hillary Clinton for their phony, flip-flopping history on certain issues.

Rogan went as far to say that 1990s Biden sounded a lot like a Proud Boy today.

Anthony also noted that people were attracted to Trump for… pic.twitter.com/fXjL9kSSfC

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) August 30, 2023

https://twitter.com/i/status/1696969298407772388

Yeadon

Dr. Mike Yeadon, former vice president at Pfizer, tells Dr. Drew that the experimental mRNA injections rolled out en masse from late 2020 onwards, were deliberately designed to cause blood clots, in addition to the immune system attacking itself.

"My contention is that there are… pic.twitter.com/4R69XMplmK

— Wide Awake Media (@wideawake_media) August 30, 2023

“..the American empire is in freefall right now – and we’re going to lose the US dollar, and when that happens we’re going to have real poverty here, like Great Depression-level poverty.

And it comes from this war..”

• US Headed For ‘Hot War’ With Russia – Tucker Carlson (RT)

The US proxy war against Russia is likely to become an open war within the next year, former Fox News host Tucker Carlson said on Wednesday. The ruling Democrats need the war to keep power and too many Republicans are willing to go along, he added. “They will do anything to win,” Carlson said in an hour-long interview with radio host Adam Carrolla. He argued that another coronavirus lockdown is unlikely, as too many people would refuse to comply, so “they’re going to go to war with Russia, that’s what they’re going to do.” “There will be a hot war between the US and Russia in the next year,” Carlson said. “I don’t think we’ll win it.” “We’re already at war with Russia, of course, we’re funding their enemies,” he added.

The US has allocated over $130 billion for Kiev over the past 18 months for weapons, military equipment, ammunition, and the salaries of government officials. “I think that could easily happen,” the former cable TV host continued. “I think we could ‘Tonkin Gulf’ our way into it, where all of a sudden missiles land in Poland, ‘The Russians did it! Our NATO ally has been attacked! We’re going to war’! I can see that happening very easily.” In August 1964, the US fabricated an incident with the North Vietnamese navy in the Gulf of Tonkin as a pretext to deploy ground troops in South Vietnam. The scenario Carlson described already happened as well, when a Ukrainian air-defense missile struck a village across the Polish border last November, killing two local civilians.

Warsaw and Washington were quick to debunk Kiev’s claim that it had been a Russian strike, however. Carlson argued that the US could “force a peace in Ukraine tonight” by cutting off Kiev’s funding. “Otherwise, and I would bet my house on it, we are going to war with Russia,” he said. “And, of course, the stakes are everything. Life on the planet. These are the two biggest nuclear arsenals in the world, facing off against each other.” The US has “already lost control of the world – the American empire is in freefall right now – and we’re going to lose the US dollar, and when that happens we’re going to have real poverty here, like Great Depression-level poverty.

And it comes from this war,” Carlson told Carolla. He added that most Americans may not be able to see that, but it’s “super obvious” when one leaves the US, even for a short while. Moreover, he argued, the US “crushed” the German economy “when the Biden administration blew up Nord Stream” last September, and its Ukraine policies have done a lot to undermine Western Europe, Washington’s only real ally in the world. Carlson has just returned from Hungary, where he took part in a conference and interviewed Prime Minister Viktor Orban for his new show on X, formerly Twitter. Carlson made Elon Musk’s social media platform his new home after Fox News canceled his top-rated evening show in April, for reasons that have never been made public.

The naked power of Raytheon.

• Biden Looks to Prevent Future President From Ending Ukraine War (Antiwar)

The Biden administration is working to reach a deal with Ukraine for long-term military support to keep backing the war with Russia that would be difficult for a future president to exit, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday. The effort is part of a commitment made by G7 nations at the recent NATO summit in Vilnius to negotiate their own bilateral security deals with Ukraine. Besides the G7 nations, 18 other countries have agreed to provide long-term military support for Kyiv. The idea of the long-term commitment is to show Russia that it can’t wait out the Biden administration. The Journal report reads: “Western officials are looking for ways to lock in pledges of support and limit future governments’ abilities to backtrack, amid fears in European capitals that Donald Trump, if he recaptures the White House, would seek to scale back aid.” Trump, who escalated US involvement in Ukraine during his term by taking the step to provide Javelin missiles, has said he would end the Ukraine war within “24 hours” if elected in 2024.

The former president is the current frontrunner for the Republican nomination. The Journal report acknowledged that the Biden administration could not legally bind a future president from exiting a deal with Ukraine, but Republican hawks in Congress could make it difficult. During his time as president, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, but the majority of Republicans in Congress supported exiting the agreement. A US official told the Journal that one proposal being considered for Ukraine would be a memorandum of understanding (MOU), which would not require congressional approval. President Biden has previously floated the idea of an “Israel model” for Ukraine. The US provides Israel with $3.8 billion in military aid each year under a 10-year MOU but does not provide mutual defense guarantees. The Journal report said that French officials have suggested military aid commitments for Ukraine should be over a four-year period.

“Do you regret not locking [Clinton] up? And if you’re president again, will you lock people up?” Trump said: “The answer is you have no choice, because they’re doing it to us.”

• Trump Vows To Lock Up Political Enemies If He Returns To White House (G.)

Donald Trump says he will lock up his political enemies if he is president again. In an interview on Tuesday, the rightwing broadcaster Glenn Beck raised Trump’s famous campaign-trail vow to “lock up” Hillary Clinton, his opponent in 2016, a promise Trump did not fulfill in office. Beck said: “Do you regret not locking [Clinton] up? And if you’re president again, will you lock people up?” Trump said: “The answer is you have no choice, because they’re doing it to us.” Trump has encouraged the “lock her up” chant against other opponents but he remains in considerable danger of being locked up himself. Under four indictments, he faces 91 criminal charges related to election subversion, retention of classified information and hush-money payments to a adult film star. He denies wrongdoing and claims to be the victim of political persecution. Trials are scheduled next year.

Earlier this month, Politico calculated that Trump faced a maximum of 641 years in jail. After the addition of 13 racketeering and conspiracy charges in Georgia, Forbes upped the total to more than 717 years. Trump is 77. Both sites noted, however, that if convicted, the former president was unlikely to receive maximum sentences. Nor would convictions bar Trump from running for president or being elected. On that score, Trump dominates national and key state polling regarding the Republican presidential nomination. In his Tuesday interview on BlazeTV, Trump also said he “never hit Biden as hard as I could have” while in office. Trump’s first impeachment concerned attempts to find dirt on rivals including Biden, related to politics and business in Ukraine. Now, in Congress, Trump’s Republican allies are threatening to impeach Biden over unsubstantiated allegations connected to his surviving son, Hunter.

Trump told Beck that Biden was behind the indictments against him. In fact, all were brought by prosecutors independent of the White House: 44 by the justice department special counsel Jack Smith, 34 by the Manhattan district attorney, Alvin Bragg, and 13 by Fani Willis, the district attorney of Fulton county, Georgia. Trump also claimed “the woman that I never met, that they accused me of rape, that’s being run by a Democrat, a Democrat operative, and paid for by the Democrat [sic] party”. That was a reference to civil claims brought by E Jean Carroll, a writer who says Trump sexually assaulted her in New York in the 1990s. Earlier this year, Trump was found liable for sexual abuse and defamation and fined about $5m. A second trial is due next year.

The judge in the case has said Trump has been adjudicated a rapist. Also facing investigations of his business affairs, Trump said Democrats and other opponents were “sick people … evil people”. The twice impeached, four times indicted, 91 times charged ex-president also told Beck he “always had such great respect for the office of the president and the presidency”.

“..the Ukrainian high command will be confronted with the reality that they will need to order a general retreat to more defensive positions..“

• Ukraine’s Fate Sealed Long Before Failing Counteroffensive (Scott Ritter)

While Ukraine, with the support of its NATO allies, has accrued sufficient military capacity to engage in concerted military operations against Russia since the counteroffensive began in early June, the reality is that this effort is unsustainable. In short, Ukraine has reached the end of its tether. While the tactical situation along the line of contact with Russia fluctuates daily, and Ukraine has been able to achieve some limited success in certain areas, the cost that comes with these successes has been so high that Ukraine lacks not only the ability to exploit these successes, but is in danger of not being able to maintain a military presence along the entirety of the frontline sufficient to hold back any concerted Russian offensive operations.

The heavy casualties suffered by Ukraine, combined with the failure of the counteroffensive to breach even the first line of the prepared Russian defenses, have prompted the Ukrainian army to commit its strategic reserve into the fight. This reserve, consisting of some of the best trained and equipped forces available to the Ukrainians, was meant to exploit the advances made by the initial offensive operations. The fact that the strategic reserve has been committed to achieve objectives that all preceding attacking units had failed to accomplish only underscores the futility of the Ukrainian effort, and the inevitability of its ultimate defeat.

The collapse of Ukrainian military cohesion along the line of contact with Russia is occurring even as the last vestige of the Ukrainian counteroffensive bleeds itself white in the fields of Zaporozhye. Because of battlefield losses suffered by Ukraine in the months leading up to the initiation of the June counteroffensive (mainly, but not exclusively, in the Battle for Artemovsk), Ukrainian forces were stretched thin as units were reshuffled along the front to replace those that had been depleted in battle. As the counteroffensive floundered, military resources were withdrawn from other sectors of the front to make up for the losses.

This thinning of the Ukrainian lines provided opportunities for the Russian forces, leading to major advances in the vicinity of Kupyansk. As Ukrainian losses continue, this thinning will only become more prevalent, creating gaps in the Ukrainian defenses which can be exploited by a Russian military which has upwards of 200,000 well-trained, well-equipped reserves which have yet to be committed into the battle. This cause-effect relationship will continue, since Ukraine has no more reserves available to replace battlefield losses which will continue to accrue all along the line of contact. Eventually, the Ukrainian posture will be unsustainable, and the Ukrainian high command will be confronted with the reality that they will need to order a general retreat to more defensive positions—perhaps as far back as the right bank of the Dnepr River—or face the inevitability of the total destruction of their army.

“Earlier this week, mobile operator Kievstar mentioned “400,000 heroes” who had “gone to eternity” in a charity drive, before quickly deleting the post.”

• Ukraine To Review All Draft Exemptions – Zelensky (RT)

The National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine decided on Wednesday to review every single draft exemption issued since the start of the conflict with Russia, citing widespread corruption. “All cases where [exemption] decisions are clearly groundless and illegal should be dealt with by law enforcement,” President Vladimir Zelensky announced after the NSDC meeting. The council also decided to fully digitize the entire Armed Forces database and revise the criteria for determining fitness for military service, to prevent “manipulation”and give field commanders more opportunities to find appropriate roles for soldiers. NSDC head Aleksey Danilov said that Ukraine is rolling out a “newly approved” plan for further mobilization, calling up as many men as it may need to continue the fighting.

Zelensky sacked the heads of all enlistment offices in early August, after the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) announced the discovery of a “widespread conspiracy” to forge health exemptions by military-medical commissions in 11 regions of the country. The conspirators allegedly charged up to $6,000 for fraudulent papers, which draft-dodgers then used to leave the country. The government in Kiev has ordered several waves of conscription since the hostilities with Russia escalated in February 2022. In late June, recruitment centers in several regions stopped sending individual summons, issuing blanket notifications to all men of military age instead.

After Zelensky’s purge of enlistment commissioners, the Financial Times reported that some fraudulent exemptions could cost up to $10,000, and that almost 20,000 Ukrainians have been caught trying to dodge the draft, citing official government figures. The BBC spoke of a widespread social media movement to help the draft-dodgers, with groups with as many as 100,000 members offering tips, tricks and other assistance. Meanwhile, photos posted on social media in recent months have shown cemeteries across Ukraine rapidly filling up, due to the death toll of the grinding offensive against Russian strongholds in the south. Earlier this week, mobile operator Kievstar mentioned “400,000 heroes” who had “gone to eternity” in a charity drive, before quickly deleting the post.

Only…They can’t fire at them and give France an excuse to invade..

• French Troops Reportedly Given Until September 3 to Withdraw From Niger (Sp.)

Niger’s National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) has reportedly demanded the complete withdrawal of French troops from the West African country by September 3. Earlier in the day, Saudi media reported the CNSP had announced the annulment of all security and military agreements with France. By the end of the week, supporters of the pullout are going to stage an indefinite protest against the presence of the French military in Niger. Some residents have reportedly demanded that the authorities cut water and power supply to the French base, as well as halt food deliveries.

Last week, the Nigerien Foreign Ministry called on French Ambassador Sylvain Itte to leave the country within 48 hours. Paris said it took note of Niger’s request to the ambassador, but noted Niger’s military leadership has no authority to make such decisions. On July 26, Niger’s presidential guard ousted and detained President Mohamed Bazoum. The guard’s commander, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, proclaimed himself the president of the caretaker CNSP-led government. Most Western countries as well as ECOWAS condemned it. In early August, ECOWAS adopted a plan for a potential military intervention in Niger.

“..how we can improve our policy in respect with these countries..”

Decades too late.

• Coup In Gabon, Situation In West Africa A Big Issue For Europe – Borrell (RT)

European Union defense ministers will meet to discuss the situation in the Central African state of Gabon, after soldiers of the former French colony announced earlier that they had assumed control, the bloc’s foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell said on Wednesday. “If this is confirmed, it is another military coup which increases instability in the whole region,” Borrell said, during a meeting of EU defense ministers in the Spanish city of Toledo reported-on by Reuters. A group of Gabonese soldiers appeared on national television in the early hours of Wednesday, saying they had dissolved state institutions and canceled the results of the country’s disputed elections.

The move came after Gabon’s longtime leader, Ali Bongo, was declared the winner of last week’s presidential election, giving him the green light to govern for a third term. The soldiers denounced the “irresponsible, unpredictable governance” of Bongo, claiming his 14 years in office had resulted in a “deterioration in social cohesion that risks leading the country into chaos.” The coup in Gabon is the latest in a series of military takeovers in Africa in recent years, coming just weeks after soldiers seized power in Niger. The new military rulers in Niger, another former French colony, have refused to release ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and restore democratic rule, despite pressure from the 15-nation West African Regional bloc, ECOWAS.

The regional authority has activated a standby force for a military intervention backed by France, which it has threatened to use against the coup leaders in Niamey if diplomatic efforts fail. Mali and Burkina Faso, both military-ruled countries, have warned against armed action directed at their counterparts in Niger. While expressing concern about the situation in Gabon, which has a population of nearly 2.5 million, Borrell stated that coups in other parts of the continent are “a big issue for Europe.” “The whole area, starting with Central African Republic, then Mali, then Burkina Faso, now Niger, maybe Gabon, it’s in a very difficult situation and certainly the [EU] ministers… have to have a deep thought on what is going on there and how we can improve our policy in respect with these countries,” he said.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1697003725531779096

Ha! Ha! Sanctions.

• EU Imports Of Russian LNG Leap By 40% Since Ukraine Invasion (G.)

EU imports of Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) have increased by 40% since the invasion of Ukraine despite efforts to cut down supplies. Member states have bought more than half of Russia’s LNG on the market in the first seven months of this year, according to analysis of data by Kpler, which tracks marine and tanker traffic. Spain and Belgium, which acts as major gateways for LNG supplies to the bloc, have emerged as the second and third-biggest customers of Russian LNG respectively after China. “EU countries now buy the majority of Russia’s supply, propping up one of the Kremlin’s most important sources of revenue,” said Jonathan Noronha-Gant, a senior fossil fuel campaigner at the anti-corruption group Global Witness, which did the analysis.

Europe’s pipeline gas flows from Russia have fallen to historic lows since the invasion last year as countries wean themselves off it, but to make up for the shortfall shipments of cooled LNG from all over the world, including Russia, have surged and are not subject to any EU sanctions. EU countries bought 22m cubic metres of Russian LNG between January and July 2023, compared with 15m during the same period in 2021, Global Witness said. “Buying Russian gas has the same impact as buying Russian oil. Both fund the war in Ukraine, and every euro means more bloodshed. While European countries decry the war, they’re putting money into Putin’s pockets,” Noronha-Gant said. “These countries should align their actions with their words by banning the trade of Russian LNG that is fuelling both the war and the climate crisis.”

Spain and Belgian said the numbers did not reflect national purchasing but the fact that their ports were major gateways for the rest of the continent. European leaders spent 2022 reducing their reliance on Russian energy and trying to build alternative supplies after the country’s president, Vladimir Putin, closed off the gas taps to Europe. The EU imposed sanctions on imports of Russian oil and coal after Moscow’s forces invaded Ukraine in February last year. It also banned Russian entities from storing gas in the bloc and prohibited most new investments in the Russian energy sector. Fears of winter blackouts led to people in many countries being asked to turn down their heating thermostats by 1C and night-time illumination of public buildings across the bloc, including the Eiffel Tower, was stopped. In some cities street lights were turned off after midnight to save energy.

Irreversible.

• Expanded BRICS Set to De-Dollarize the World, Control Global Energy Supply (ET)

“The expansion of BRICS has made it clear that the de-dollarization of the international finance system is inevitable.” This view, from economist William Gumede—who’s also executive chairperson of the Democracy Works Foundation in South Africa—has been echoed around the world since BRICS leaders announced the expansion of the bloc on Aug. 24 at a summit in Johannesburg. Current BRICS members are Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. In January, BRICS—originally established in 2009 to represent the world’s strongest emerging market economies—will add Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to its ranks. Mr. Gumede, one of South Africa’s leading academics and thought-leaders, has been researching the potential impacts of de-dollarization since 2014.

He told The Epoch Times the average per capita GDP of the G7 economies was currently six times that of BRICS economies. But, the unexpectedly swift expansion of BRICS would increase the trade bloc’s share of the global economy much faster than earlier predictions. “These forecasts did not take into account that BRICS would expand its membership very quickly. A larger BRICS will mean the world will increasingly use U.S. dollars less,” he said. Mr. Gumede said the bigger BRICS alliance would eventually rival the Group of Seven (G7) large industrial economies of the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, France, Japan, Italy, and Canada, which together are home to 16 percent of the world’s population and account for 62 percent of the global economy.

Welcoming the new members in Johannesburg last week, Brazil’s President Lula da Silva said their addition would mean BRICS would represent 46 percent of the global population and 37 percent of the world GDP. The expansion means BRICS now consists of some of the globe’s largest oil producers: Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt. Nigeria, another major oil exporter, is set to join when the bloc gets even bigger, probably at its next summit in Russia in 2024. “BRICS is going to dominate the world’s energy supply,” said Mr. Gumede. “The strength of the U.S. dollar is also partially based on the currency as underpinning oil trade—the so-called petrodollar—and members of OPEC settle their accounts in U.S. dollars.

Look at the phrasing:

“One candidate who is already running, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., would stay in the race, trading on his family name rather than his conspiracy-fueled ideas.”

• What if Biden Backs Out of the Race? (RCW)

President Biden has declared he’s running for a second term, but it’s far from certain he actually will. His infirmity and low poll numbers raise serious doubts. His physical decline shows when he walks or climbs the stairs of Air Force One. His cognitive decline shows when he refuses to hold press conferences or answer even the simplest questions, like how he feels about the devastating fires in Maui. His decline in the public’s estimation shows when pollsters ask Americans how they’re doing. Four out of five answer, “Not good. Not good at all.” Voters also say they don’t want another general election choice like the last one. So many votes in 2020 were negative ones “against the worse candidate,” not in favor of the better one. They don’t want another grudge match between two unpopular candidates.

Biden’s dismal poll numbers form a somber backdrop for his reelection campaign. That backdrop is even darker now that his health problems are so visible. These mounting problems may not prevent him from running, but they do lessen the chances. True, he keeps saying he is running. But, like all politicians, he may be deceiving the public or himself. The biggest “tell” is that Biden is avoiding the very things active candidates do. He’s not campaigning. He’s not attending a lot of small events with big donors. He’s not running ads. He’s not using the White House’s bully pulpit to address the nation on our challenges and his response to them. Still, those signs are not definitive. Biden might be lying low because the Republicans are fighting among themselves. Why get in their way? Better to wait until late autumn to ramp up his campaign.

He might be unsure if he really is running, uncertain if he is up to the arduous task, physically and mentally. Or he might have already decided, privately, that he will not run but is delaying the announcement since it would immediately turn him into a powerless lame duck. At this point, it’s impossible to know what he has decided. He might not know himself. But it is well worth considering the implications if Biden limits himself to one term and waits until late fall or early spring to make the announcement. The first implication is that a late withdrawal favors some Democratic candidates over others. It favors those with high name recognition, existing campaign operations, and the ability to fund expensive national efforts, either from outside donations or their own pockets.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has already established his campaign-in-waiting and can raise lots of money, especially from big donors in his home state. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker is a billionaire who can fund his own run and has begun setting up a national team. Michigan’s Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, by contrast, would be several steps behind and would need to raise a lot of money quickly to become a viable candidate. So would Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, or others who might step into the wide-open race. One candidate who is already running, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., would stay in the race, trading on his family name rather than his conspiracy-fueled ideas.

[..] The second consequence of a Biden withdrawal would be a fight over the future of Kamala Harris. She is the least popular vice president in polling history, and for good reason. Voters think she’s incompetent, inauthentic, and inarticulate, an empty-calorie word salad without any policy achievements. She’s the living embodiment of the “Peter Principle,” where people keep getting promoted until they reach their level of incompetence.

Given GOP’s track record…

• Majority of Voters Are Skeptical of Possible Biden Impeachment (Manley)

A poll published on Wednesday has revealed that a majority of American voters (56%) see a possible impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden as more of a partisan political stunt than those (38%) who view it as a “serious effort to investigate important problems.” At least 53% of Independents who responded to the poll also agreed that an impeachment inquiry would be more of a political stunt. The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling and commissioned by the Congressional Integrity Project, both groups of which lean Democrat. Some 37% of those who responded to the poll said they were Democrat, while 32% said they were Republican and 31% said they were Independent. About 88% of Biden voters said an impeachment of the president would be a “partisan political stunt” while just 20% of former US President Donald Trump’s voters said the same. When grouped politically, 81% of Democrats held this view, while 30% of Republicans said the same. Another 73% of Trump voters, and just 7% of Biden backers said the impeachment inquiry would be a “serious effort to investigate important problems.”

The survey then asked respondents whether Republicans should still move to impeach Biden if “no evidence is found” in the investigation. In response, 61% said they should not impeach him, while 32% said they should, and 7% said they were not sure. “MAGA Republicans’ impeachment promises are nothing more than a partisan political stunt designed to hurt President Biden, and the American people know it,” said Leslie Dach, a senior adviser for the Congressional Integrity Project. “Republicans have failed to find a single shred of evidence of wrongdoing by President Biden and voters see right through their partisan games.” A possible impeachment investigation in Biden appears to be on the horizon for Congress as summer comes to a close. Last week, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said he would launch an impeachment inquiry in September should the Biden administration fail to turn over documents he believes are tied to an alleged bribery scheme involving his family.

Seating his donors…

• Hunter Biden Helped Plan State Dinners During Dad’s VP Days (Sp.)

A number of emails obtained from the US National Archives and Records Administration revealed more than 1,000 emails between the office of then-Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden’s advisory firm Rosemont Seneca Partners, America First Legal said in a statement. “We obtained new docs from our lawsuit against the National Archives revealing over 1,000 emails between Rosemont Seneca and the Office of Vice President,” the statement said on Wednesday. “The vast majority of these emails consisted of direct communications between Rosemont Seneca employees, including Hunter Biden, and the Office of the Vice President.”

The emails contradict Joe Biden’s claims that there was a wall between personal and government business, the statement said, underscoring that Hunter Biden was “intimately involved in planning for high-profile White House events” despite lacking any official role. One of the findings revealed that Hunter Biden took part in planning a 2011 luncheon with Chinese officials, arrival ceremony with the then German chancellor, 2012 state dinner with UK dignitaries, 2013 state luncheon with Turkish officials and a state dinner with French officials in 2014. The “Biden name” was used to gain access to the White House for Rosemont Seneca and their associates, the statement said, detailing a December 2013 incident in which a lobbyist “reached out” to Hunter’s business partner for last-minute tickets to a Christmas tour of the White House.

Sean Penn
https://twitter.com/i/status/1696950646979670408

Quail
https://twitter.com/i/status/1696789527984025741

Octopus

Octopus found a new house.. pic.twitter.com/C2rfKeqdjf

— Buitengebieden (@buitengebieden) August 30, 2023

Cheetah

A cheetah running at full speed covers about 7m (23 ft) with each stride.pic.twitter.com/oBHVvLSRLP

— Wonder of Science (@wonderofscience) August 30, 2023

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Debt Rattle April 19 2021

Apr 192021

April 19, 2021 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 9:27 am Finance Tagged with: Biden, bitcoin, Chauvin, China, COVID, Czech, hot war, Lord Byron, Pfizer, Putin whisperers, reinfection 34 Responses »

Theodoros Vryzakis The Reception of Lord Byron at Missolonghi 1861

• How Pfizer Became the Status Vax (Slate)

• Michigan Now Requires Masks For 2-Year-Olds (JTN)

• Trial To Study Effect Of Immune System On Covid Reinfection (G.)

• Biden’s Sanctions Binge The High-Water Mark Of The ‘Putin Whisperers’ (Ritter)

• Escobar: So Who Wants A Hot War?

• Russia Tells 20 Czech Diplomats To Leave By Monday Night (RT)

• Black Leaders Warn Of Fallout If Derek Chauvin Acquitted (F.)

• 3 Kids Or More: Chinese Researchers Call To Abandon Birth Limits (RT)

• China Calls Bitcoin An ‘Investment Alternative’ In Major Shift In Tone (CNBC)

• UK House Prices Surge As High Demand Meets Record Shortage (G.)

• Gates Unhinged: Dystopian Vision for the Future of Food (Todhunter)

• Lord Byron’s £4,000 Cheque That Helped Create Modern Greece (G.)

BioNTech SEC Filing, November 2020:

“mRNA therapies have been classified as gene therapy medicinal products”
“Currently, mRNA is considered a gene therapy product by the FDA.”

UNESCO Universal Declaration on Bioethics and Human Rights

Article 6 – Consent
1. Any preventive, diagnostic and therapeutic medical intervention is only to be carried out with the prior, free and informed consent of the person concerned. “The consent should, where appropriate, be express and may be withdrawn by the person concerned at any time and for any reason without disadvantage or prejudice.”

VAERS injury report #1074247 caused by Pfizer vaxx:

Symptoms: Death
Life threatening: No

Madness in all its glory.

• How Pfizer Became the Status Vax (Slate)

Last week, on a phone call with Tom Cox, a former representative in the Kansas state Legislature who now works in government relations, I told him I was soon to get my first dose of the Pfizer vaccine. “Welcome to the ruling class,” he replied. Cox had also gotten the Pfizer shot, and with it, he has lately developed—facetiously, he swears—a sense of Pfizer superiority. It started after he, his closest friends, and his immediate family all happened to get the Pfizer vaccine. “We started calling ourselves ‘double-dosed Pfizer elites,’ ” Cox said. “I will refer to anyone who’s had one dose as a ‘one-doser.’ Like, ‘Oh, you’re a one-doser? OK, well, you’ll reach this enlightened plane soon enough.’ ”

“One of my cousins got Moderna, and I was like, ‘That’s OK. We need a strong middle class. We can’t all be CEOs.’ ” Cox is likely not the first Pfizerphile you’ve heard sing his vaccine brand’s praises. Pro-Pfizer sentiment is all over TikTok, where you can find skits of bros bonding over their shared Pfizer status, or one creator declaring that the name itself “Sounds rich. Decadent. Luxury!” Olajide Bamishigbin, a psychology professor in California, was on a similar wavelength recently when he tweeted a GIF of SpongeBob SquarePants dressed in a top hat and monocle alongside the words, “Me when somebody says they got any vaccine other than Pfizer.”

The Pfizer superiority complex is at once a joke and a real phenomenon. But is it affecting the vaccine rollout? “Even though I think that we have this instinct that’s out there”—the belief that Pfizer is the elite shot—“it still feels more playful than really driving outcomes,” said Manuel Hermosilla, a professor of marketing at Johns Hopkins’ Carey Business School who studies the pharmaceutical industry. He said he thinks people understand that getting whatever vaccine you can should trump any brand preference—though it’s unclear how this week’s news about the Johnson & Johnson vaccine could change that equation. On Tuesday, U.S. health agencies recommended a pause in administration of the J&J vaccine, after six women developed a rare blood clot disorder within weeks of receiving the shot. In all likelihood, this pause will be temporary.

With the blood clot scare in the news, it may seem an uncouth time to be a Pfizer snob. Objectively, the Pfizer vaccine may have the best numbers, with an efficacy rate originally reported as 95 percent. But with a 94 percent efficacy rate, the Moderna vaccine was right behind it, and J&J’s efficacy rate of 66 percent was actually quite good, if you understand what the numbers mean. And the J&J shot has one big advantage on the other two, which is that it can be administered in one dose instead of two. Once you’re able to get it again.

Utter madness.

• Michigan Now Requires Masks For 2-Year-Olds (JTN)

The Michigan state government this week directed state residents as young as two years old to begin wearing masks in the hopes that doing so will help bring down the state’s coronavirus numbers. The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services said in a press release on Friday that the state will expand its COVID-19 response — what the state DHHS calls “the strongest public health order in the Midwest” — to apply its masking requirement “to children ages 2 to 4” in order to “further protect the state’s residents.” “Expanding the mask rule to children ages 2 to 4 requires a good faith effort to ensure that these children wear masks while in gatherings at childcare facilities or camps,” the announcement says, adding that the order “follows recommendations from the American Academy of Pediatrics and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance.”

Also brought to you by Pfizer?

• Trial To Study Effect Of Immune System On Covid Reinfection (G.)

The immune response needed to protect people against reinfection with the coronavirus will be explored in a new human challenge trial, researchers have revealed. Human challenge trials involve deliberately exposing healthy people to a disease-causing organism in a carefully controlled manner, and have proved valuable in understanding and tackling myriad conditions from malaria to tuberculosis and gonorrhoea. The first human challenge trials for Covid began this year, with the study – a partnership led by researchers at Imperial College London among others – initially looking at the smallest amount of virus needed to cause infection among people who have not had Covid before.

Now researchers at the University of Oxford have announced that they have gained research ethics approval for a new human challenge trial involving people who have previously had coronavirus. Recruitment is expected to start in the next couple of weeks. “The point of this study is to determine what kind of immune response prevents reinfection,” said Helen McShane, a professor of vaccinology at the University of Oxford, and chief investigator on the study. McShane said the team would measure the levels of various components of participants’ immune response – including T-cells and antibodies – and then track whether participants became reinfected when exposed to the virus.

Participants must be healthy, at low risk from Covid, aged between 18 and 30, and must have been infected with the coronavirus at least three months before joining the trial. As well as having previously had a positive Covid PCR test, they must also have antibodies to Covid. Given the timing criteria, McShane said it was likely most participants would have previously been infected with the original strain of the virus. The first phase of the trial will initially involve 24 participants split into dose groups of three to eight people who will receive, via the nose, the original strain of coronavirus. The idea is to start with a very low dose and, if necessary, increase the dose – up to a point – between groups.

“Our target is to have 50% of our subjects infected but with no, or only very mild, disease,” said McShane, adding that once the dose required to achieve this is determined it will be administered to 10-40 other participants to confirm the dose. The second phase of the study – expected to start in the summer – will involve a new group of participants and will study closely their immune response before and after exposure to the virus, as well as the level of virus and symptoms in those who become reinfected. Should reinfection be confirmed, or symptoms develop, in either phase of the trial, participants will be given a monoclonal antibody treatment. Participants will be reimbursed just under £5,000 for the full study, as each volunteer will need to quarantine for at least 17 days during the trial, and be followed up for 12 months.

Must read by Scott Ritter, history lesson. I still wonder why Yeltsin appointed Putin. People say it’s because he thought he’d be pliable. But did he not maybe regret having sold out his country, and knew very well who and what Putin was?

• Biden’s Sanctions Binge The High-Water Mark Of The ‘Putin Whisperers’ (Ritter)

Joe Biden has announced a new wave of sanctions against Russia and signalled the potential for more. Biden’s mouth is writing checks the US can’t cash, and his latest tantrum is likely the last gasp of failed anti-Russia strategy. Back in the Cold War, the US and Soviet Union wore “big-boy pants” – they understood the realities of the world they lived in and accepted the consequences of their respective actions like adults. Espionage was a given; when you succeeded, you kept your mouth shut, and when you were caught, you took your lumps in silence. What underpinned this approach was the kind of begrudging respect that professionals of equal stature afford to one another – each side had a job to do, and they got on with it.

Both sides were engaged in active propaganda, some overt, much of it covert. This ideological combat was waged in the battlefield of the minds of intellectuals and activists, who were entrusted to decide for themselves which brand of idealism they would embrace. The CIA underwrote such notable literary journals such as The Paris Review and Encounter, while Soviet efforts to infiltrate the Black Civil Rights movement and the anti-war movement of the 1960’s are well documented. And yet, throughout this war of words, Kennedy somehow met with Khrushchev, Nixon and Carter with Brezhnev, and Reagan with Gorbachev. We opposed the Soviets, but we also respected them as worthy opponents. This attitude changed, almost overnight, with the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, and the end of the Cold War.

The successor to the once mighty Soviet Union was the Russian Federation, which had been transformed from a world power capable of dictating global outcomes to a regional train wreck, in desperate need of foreign assistance to keep it from falling apart. Inside the CIA, the once all-powerful Office of Soviet Analysis (SOVA), the largest and most prestigious fiefdom within the Directorate of Intelligence, was dissolved, replaced by the more generic sounding “Office of Slavic and Eurasian analysis”, and later, the Office of Russian and European analysis. Old-time analysts who had spent decades studying the Soviet Union were dismissed or reassigned, replaced by a new breed, who viewed Russia not as an adversary to be respected, but a victim to be exploited.

Moscow Station – the CIA operation inside the Soviet Union – was likewise gutted, transforming overnight from the premier posting for the agency’s most capable case officers into a backwater where new officers were sent to cut their baby teeth and old officers to retire. The CIA’s approach to Russia in the 1990’s was one of negligent incompetence, where analysis was lazy and operations virtually non-existent. The demand for high quality intelligence simply did not exist in an environment where the Russian government, in the form of an alcoholic president named Boris Yeltsin, had completely subordinated himself to the will of his American masters, and the Russian national security establishment was more than happy to sell its secrets to anyone willing to pay a price.

“Now listen to the sound of Stoltenberg yappin’: We pledge “unwavering support” to Ukraine. Woof woof. Now go back to play in your sandboxes.”

• Escobar: So Who Wants A Hot War?

Zelensky’s warmongering script comes directly from MI6’s Richard Moore. Russian intel is very much aware of all the fine print. Glimpses were even carefully leaked to a TV special on the Rossiya 1 channel. I confirmed it with diplomatic sources in Brussels. British media also got wind of it – but obviously was told to further distort the mirrors, blaming everything on, what else, “Russian aggression”. German intel is practically non-existent in Kiev. Those NATO advisers remain legion. Yet no one talks about the explosive MI6 connection. Careless whispers in Brussels corridors swear that MI6 actually believes that in the case of a volcanic but as it stands still preventable hot war with Russia, continental Europe would burn and Brexitland would be spared.

Dream on. Now back to the circus. Both Little Blinken and NATO straw man Stoltenberg parroted the same script in Brussels after talking to the Ukrainian Foreign Minister. That was part of a NATO “special meeting” on Ukraine – where some Eurocrat must have told a bunch of extra clueless Eurocrats how they would be carbonized on the spot by Russian TOS-1 Buratino’s terrifying explosive warheads if NATO tried anything funny. Listen to the sound of Blinken yappin’: Russian actions are “provocative”. Well, his staff certainly did not hand him a copy of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu examining step by step the deployment of the annual US Army DEFENDER-Europe 21: “The main forces are concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic region.”

Now listen to the sound of Stoltenberg yappin’: We pledge “unwavering support” to Ukraine. Woof woof. Now go back to play in your sandboxes. No, not yet. Little Blinken threatened Moscow with “consequences” whatever happens in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov’s infinite patience is nearly Daoist. Sun Tzu’s Art of War, by the way, is a Daoist masterpiece. Peskov’s answer to Blinken: “It is simply not necessary for us to go around forever proclaiming: ‘I am the greatest!’ The more one does this sort of thing, in fact, the more people doubt it…” When in doubt, call the irreplaceable Andrei Martyanov – who always tells it like it is. The Crash Test Dummy gang in D.C. still does not get it – although some Deep State pros do.

Here’s Martyanov: As I am on record constantly – the United States never fought a war with its Command and Control system under the relentless sustained fire impact and its rear attacked and disorganized. Conventionally, the United States cannot win against Russia in Europe, at least Eastern part of it and Biden Admin better wake up to the reality that it may, indeed, not survive any kind of escalation and, in fact, modern Kalibrs, 3M14Ms, as a matter of fact, have a range of a 4,500 kilometers, as well as 5,000+ kilometer range of X-101 cruise missiles, which will have no issues with penetrating North American airspace when launched by Russia’s strategic bombers without even leaving the safety of Russia’s airspace.

Can’t get over that crazy story of the same guys and fake passports being used in 2014, and then again in the 2018 Skripal case. How stupid does MI6 think we all are?

• Russia Tells 20 Czech Diplomats To Leave By Monday Night (RT)

Twenty Czech diplomats have been declared personae non-gratae and must now leave Russia before the end of April 19, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Sunday, a day after Czech officials expelled 18 diplomats to Moscow. Earlier on Sunday, the Czech ambassador to Moscow, Vítezslav Pivonka, was summoned to the Foreign Ministry, which expressed a “strong protest” over Prague’s actions this weekend. Citing allegations of the involvement of the Russian intelligence in a 2014 blast at a military depot in the Czech Republic, which was initially thought to be an accident, the Czech government ordered 18 Russian diplomats out of the country. The decision was announced on Saturday by Prime Minister Andrej Babis and Foreign Minister Jan Hamacek.

The envoy was also informed that 20 staff members of the Czech embassy in Moscow would have to leave Russia by the end of Monday, April 19. Reports in the media on Saturday cited diplomatic sources as having said that a proportionate retaliation from Moscow would effectively shut down the embassy, but it was not immediately clear how severely the work of the diplomatic mission has actually been affected. Notably, the diplomatic scandal rocked Czech-Russian relations on the eve of FM Hamacek’s scheduled visit to Moscow, where he was to have discussed the possible purchase of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine. The breakdown in relations has also disrupted Russian-Czech cooperation in the field of nuclear energy.

On Sunday, Czech Minister of Industry and Trade Karel Havlicek said Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy corporation, Rosatom, would likely be barred from tendering for renovating the Czech Republic’s Dukovany nuclear power plant. Also on Saturday, Czech police said they were looking for two Russian citizens who were in the area of the military depot at the time of the blast, apparently implying their involvement without directly saying so. The news was met with much ridicule in Russia, as the suspects are the same men who were accused by London of the poisoning of double agent Sergei Skripal in Salisbury in 2018 – an allegation denied by Moscow. Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov have previously denied any links to Russian intelligence, claiming they were businessmen and complaining that Britain’s unsubstantiated accusations had ruined their lives.

These people don’t appear to have much faith in the US justice system. But how is this not an attempt at jury tampering? Dangerous. “If you don’t find him guilty, there’ll be riots”. What happened to everyone has a right to a fair trial?

• Black Leaders Warn Of Fallout If Derek Chauvin Acquitted (F.)

As a verdict nears in the trial of Derek Chauvin amid renewed outrage over police killings, multiple Black leaders involved in calls for reform are emphasizing the necessity that the former Minneapolis Police officer be convicted for George Floyd’s death—and warning of the fallout if he is not. Civil rights attorney Benjamin Crump, who is representing the families of Floyd and Daunte Wright, the 20-year-old fatally shot by Minnesota police last week, told ABC News’s “This Week” the American legal system will have “once again … broken our hearts” if Chauvin is acquitted on murder and manslaughter charges.

“We cannot condone this inhumanity America, we cannot condone this evil that we saw on that video [of Floyd’s arrest],” Crump said during the Sunday morning interview, warning that if the trial’s outcome doesn’t set a new precedent, “people are going to continue having these emotional protests.” Also speaking during a Sunday appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.), who has been working on a bipartisan policing reform bill, said she’s anticipating outrage if Chauvin is acquitted on all three counts, adding: “We’ve seen people get off with minimal sentences” in “too many of these cases.” “I don’t think anyone in Minneapolis, frankly anyone in the U.S., and over a good part of the world, would understand any verdict other than guilty,” Bass said.

This comes after fellow Calif. Rep. Maxine Waters (D), speaking at a Saturday night rally in Brooklyn Center, where Wright’s shooting has sparked nearly a week of protests, urged demonstrators to “get more active” and “more confrontational” if Chauvin isn’t found guilty of murder. “We cannot let these killings continue,” Waters told a crowd of protesters. “If nothing does not happen, we know we’ve got to not only stay in the streets but we’ve got to fight for justice. But I am very hopeful… that we will get a verdict that says guilty, guilty, guilty. If we do not, we will not go away.”

Maxine Waters

Maxine Waters is marching in Brooklyn Center tonight and told people to take to the streets if Chauvin is acquitted pic.twitter.com/RemfvCCLAn

— Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) April 18, 2021

What a difference a generation makes. But the effects of the one child policy will reverberate for many generations. If only because everyone wanted their one child to be a boy.

• 3 Kids Or More: Chinese Researchers Call To Abandon Birth Limits (RT)

China must “fully liberalize” its birth-control policy to increase its labor force in the upcoming decades and compete with such countries as the US economically, a paper published by the People’s Bank of China says.
Beijing should pay close attention to the fact that the country’s birth rate is declining, while its population is aging fast, the researchers argued. The research, which was published this week by China’s central bank as part of its working paper series, suggests that the country’s main economic rival, the US, is undergoing “favorable changes” in working population rates, largely through mass immigration. Based on statistics and forecasts by the United Nations – which might even overestimate China’s reproduction rate, according to the researchers – the report suggests that in the next three decades, China’s population will decrease by some 32 million people.

At the same time, US may add 50 million people to its population by 2050. Furthermore, the researchers warned that China’s labor force is set to shrink, while the US will see an expansion. And unlike China, the US will have the benefit of “skilled immigration.” While China had 70.6% of its population in the labor force as of 2019, compared with the US rate of 65.2%, that advantage is predicted to drop to 3.2 percentage points from 5.4 percentage points by 2035, the paper said. By 2050, the US will swing to a 1.3 percentage-point advantage over China in the labor-force rate, the authors predicted, adding: “For [China] to narrow the gap with the United States in the past four decades, it relied on cheap labor and huge numbers of people… What will we rely on in the next 30 years? This is worth our thoughts.”

[..] The authors argued that China’s government must quickly change its family-planning policies: “Our country must clearly recognize the changes in the situation… firmly seize the precious time window, change concepts, comprehensively implement policies, and respond effectively.” Beijing “must fully liberalize childbirth” allowing “three births and above,” the paper said. In fact, women should be encouraged to have more babies, the researchers added, calling on both the government and society to create a “good reproductive environment,” improving childbirth, healthcare and school systems.

Xi concedes defeat?

• China Calls Bitcoin An ‘Investment Alternative’ In Major Shift In Tone (CNBC)

China’s central bank is now calling bitcoin an “investment alternative” — marking a significant shift in Beijing’s tone after a crackdown on cryptocurrency issuance and trading nearly four years ago. Industry insiders called the comments “progressive” and are watching closely for any regulatory changes made by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). “We regard Bitcoin and stablecoin as crypto assets … These are investment alternatives,” Li Bo, deputy governor of the PBOC, said on Sunday during a panel hosted by CNBC at the Boao Forum for Asia. “They are not currency per se. And so the main role we see for crypto assets going forward, the main role is investment alternative.”

[..] China was once one of the world’s largest buyers of bitcoin. But in 2017, China banned so-called initial coin offerings (ICOs), a way to raise money for crypto companies by issuing digital tokens. That same year, authorities shut down local cryptocurrency exchanges. The moves were prompted by concerns about financial stability. As investment alternatives, “many countries, including China, are still looking into it and thinking about what kind of regulatory requirements. Maybe minimal, but we need to have some kind of regulatory requirement to prevent … the speculation of such assets to create any serious financial stability risks,” Li said. He added that the central bank will keep its current regulations on cryptocurrencies.

They’re just sucking even more people into overpriced “properties”, wage slaves for life. PredaTORY.

• UK House Prices Surge As High Demand Meets Record Shortage (G.)

A frenzy of activity has driven UK property prices to a record high this month, just as the government launches a mortgage guarantee scheme to help people with small deposits on to the housing ladder. Online property portal Rightmove said the average asking price jumped by 2.1% in April to a new all-time high of £327,797, an increase of £6,733 from March. The surge was driven by a shortage of houses on the market, at a time when the coronavirus pandemic is driving many families to search for more spacious properties away from the cities, following the shift to working from home. Some potential sellers are holding off until they have been vaccinated against Covid-19, agents say, adding to a dearth of properties available. From Monday, several banks and building societies will begin offering mortgages covering 95% of a purchase price under the government guarantee scheme.

Announced in March’s budget, it will allow lenders to buy a guarantee on the portion of the mortgage between 80% and 95%. The government will then cover losses on that slice of debt if a borrower gets into financial difficulty and their property is repossessed. Ministers say it will provide an affordable route to home ownership, with Lloyds, Santander, Barclays, HSBC and NatWest launching mortgages under the scheme on Monday. “Every new homeowner and mover supports jobs right across the housing sector, but saving for a big enough deposit can be hard, especially for first-time buyers,” said the chancellor, Rishi Sunak. “By giving lenders the option of a government guarantee on 95% mortgages, many more products will become available, boosting the sector, creating new jobs and helping people achieve their dream of owning their own home.”

“There is no global shortage of food.”

• Gates Unhinged: Dystopian Vision for the Future of Food (Todhunter)

There is no global shortage of food. Even under any plausible future population scenario, there will be no shortage as evidenced by scientist Dr Jonathan Latham in his recent paper ‘The Myth of a Food Crisis’. However, new gene drive and gene editing techniques have now been developed and the industry is seeking the unregulated commercial release of products that are based on these methods. It does not want plants, animals and micro-organisms created with gene-editing to be subject to safety checks, monitoring or consumer labelling. This is concerning given the real dangers that these techniques pose. Many peer-reviewed research papers now call into question industry claims about the ‘precision’, safety and benefits of gene-edited organisms and can be accessed on the GMWatch.org website.

It really is a case of old wine in new bottles. And this is not lost on a coalition of 162 civil society, farmers and business organisations which has called on Vice-President of the European Commission Frans Timmermans to ensure that new genetic engineering techniques continue to be regulated in accordance with existing EU GMO standards. The coalition argues that these new techniques can cause a range of unwanted genetic modifications that can result in the production of novel toxins or allergens or in the transfer of antibiotic resistance genes. The open letter adds that even intended modifications can result in traits which could raise food safety, environmental or animal welfare concerns.

The European Court of Justice ruled in 2018 that organisms obtained with new genetic modification techniques must be regulated under the EU’s existing GMO laws. However, there has been intense lobbying from the agriculture biotech industry to weaken the legislation, aided by the Gates Foundation. The coalition states that various scientific publications show that new techniques of genetic modification allow developers to make significant genetic changes, which can be very different from those that happen in nature.

In addition to these concerns, a new paper from Chinese scientists, ‘Herbicide Resistance: Another Hot Agronomic Trait for Plant Genome Editing’, says that, in spite of claims from GMO promoters that gene editing will be climate-friendly and reduce pesticide use, what we can expect is just more of the same – GM herbicide-tolerant crops and increased herbicide use. The industry wants its new techniques to be unregulated, thereby making gene-edited GMOs faster to develop, more profitable and hidden from consumers when purchasing items in stores. At the same time, the costly herbicide treadmill will be reinforced for farmers.

What a life. What a man. And what a poet.

• Lord Byron’s £4,000 Cheque That Helped Create Modern Greece (G.)

Racked by fever, prone to fits of delirium, consumed by his last great passion – the liberation of Greece – Lord Byron lay on his sickbed. It was 18 April 1824. The great Romantic poet would be dead the next day. “I have given her [Greece] my time, my means, my health,” he is recorded as saying in a moment of lucidity. “And now I give her my life! What could I do more?” Byron’s death in Missolonghi, the malaria-ridden town where he had spearheaded the Greeks’ revolt against Ottoman rule, induced instant shock, convulsing the English-speaking world. The man who was “mad, bad and dangerous to know”, a celebrity of his day who was loved and loathed in equal measure, had spent a mere 100 days in the land whose freedom he had championed so vociferously.

“The loss of this illustrious individual is undoubtedly to be deplored by all Greece,” its provisional government declared hours after the news filtered through. “But it must be more especially a subject of lamentation at Missolonghi, where his generosity has been so conspicuously displayed.” As Greece celebrates the bicentenary of its war of independence, a banknote unearthed by the Observer in the country’s state archives sheds new light on the poet’s fabled generosity. It also offers indelible proof of his commitment to the Greek cause. In the cheque Byron stipulates that £4,000 – roughly £332,000 today – be paid to Giovanni Orlando, a representative of the provisional government that, alarmed by the way the war was going, had approached the British peer for funds.

Note of exchange for £4,000 signed by Lord Byron. Photograph: General State Archives of Greece

The money was to go towards emergency needs – notably financing a fleet to defend Missolonghi from besieging Ottoman Albanians. Both sides agreed it would be repaid against a much bigger loan to be raised in London where Orlando was headed.[..] Byron agreed to the loan in Kefalonia, part of the British-run Ionian Islands where the poet and his coterie of fellow travellers had stopped on their way to Greece. The cheque, subsequently cashed in Malta, was taken in the form of silver Spanish dollars and transported in trunks to Missolonghi by the poet. The money was then used to fund fighting ships run as a commercial enterprise by profit-minded Greek islanders. “The demand came from the legislative body,” wrote Pietro Gamba, the Italian count who was with Byron throughout the ill-fated expedition and had witnessed the exchange in Kefalonia in November 1823. “A squadron of 14 vessels, nine Hydriot and five Speziot, would then immediately put to sea.”

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