Sep 032024
 


René Magritte Memory of a voyage 1955

 

A Vote for Kamala Is a Vote for Tyranny (Paul Craig Roberts)
Kamala Harris is ‘Clear Underdog’: Campaign Chief (Sp.)
With Friends Like CNN, Kamala Harris Can’t Fail (Bridge)
Is Kamala Very Very Afraid? (Jim Kunstler)
California Bill Banning Voter ID Laws Passes Legislature (ET)
On a Highway to Hell (Scott Ritter)
Russia Says Relations With US At All-Time Low (RT)
50 Countries United Against Russia Under ‘Nazi Banners’ – Lavrov (RT)
Lukashenko Prepares His Weapons: Could Belarus Be Drawn Into The War? (Oncan)
Hungary Can’t Survive Without Russian Oil – FM (RT)
Soros-Bankrolled Human Rights Watch Tells Mongolia To Arrest Putin (RT)
US Seizes Maduro’s Plane – CNN (RT)
RFK Jr: “A Reckoning” For “Immoral, Homicidal” COVID Criminality Needed (MN)
Why Musk’s Lawsuit Against Media Matters . . . Matters (Turley)
Kyle Bass Says ‘Green’ War To Blackball Oil Was Doomed To Fail (ZH)

 

 

 

 

RFK Vietnam

 

 

Trump Crooks

 

 

Day one

 

 

Cotton

 

 

Tulsi
https://twitter.com/i/status/1830557403848511566

 

 

Elon
https://twitter.com/i/status/1830527091126702437

 

 

Reagan
https://twitter.com/i/status/1830240891266564449

 

 

GlennG

 

 

 

 

 

 

“When We Lose the Constitution, We Lose America”

“Probably few heard Kamala Harris say [..] that free speech, guaranteed by the First Amendment of the US Constitution, is impermissible without oversight and regulation and has to stop..”

“How can Kamala possibly take the oath of office and promise to uphold the Constitution?”

A Vote for Kamala Is a Vote for Tyranny (Paul Craig Roberts)

It is clear that large numbers of Americans have no conception of what is at stake in the November presidential election. Insouciance, being an American trait, is especially high this Labor Day Weekend. Probably few heard Kamala Harris say on August 30 in this video in what seems to be an interview at a CNN event that free speech, guaranteed by the First Amendment of the US Constitution, is impermissible without oversight and regulation and has to stop. Yes, she said that, and in the same 28 seconds said a number of other unbelievably stupid things that demonstrate her incapacity to serve in any political office even at the lowest level. For example, Kamala said “he (Musk) has lost his privileges and it (X) must be taken down.” Kamala is saying that free speech, the bedrock foundation of American freedom is a privilege granted by government, and by refusing to accept government censorship of free speech, Musk has lost his “privilege” to operate a social media company, which “must be taken down.”

https://twitter.com/i/status/1829652525315944693

For example, “the bottom line is that you can’t say you have one rule for Facebook and a different rule for Twitter” (she means X). There is no such rule. What she is saying is that Facebook’s cowardly or woke management has agreed to censor in order to protect the lies that constitute the official narratives, and Elon Musk, being a person of character and integrity, has not. Kamala Harris is so totally ignorant and so totally uneducated that she is unaware that the US Constitution governs the US government. She thinks our Constitutional rights are subject to regulation by government in order to conform us to official narratives. Kamala says that social media sites “are directly speaking to millions and millions of people without any oversight or regulation,” but so is she. So is CNN. So is NPR. So is NBC. So is CBS. So is ABC. [..] So is the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of Treasury, the Secretary of Homeland security. So is the Supreme Court. So is Congress. So is the President of the United States.

Kamala is so utterly stupid — indeed, she is so stupid as to be unbelievable — that she does not realize that she is sticking the gag into her own mouth. Kamala is so dumb that she does not understand that social media does not speak to millions of people. Instead, millions of people on social media speak to whoever cares to hear, usually a small number. How can a person as stupid as Kamala and as hostile to free speech be a candidate for president of the United States? How can Kamala possibly take the oath of office and promise to uphold the Constitution? The woke progressives don’t care. They hate the Constitution as much as Kamala is ignorant of it. I have often reported that law schools long ago abandoned the US Constitution as an obstacle to a woke society of DEI. Hardly a day passes that a law school dean doesn’t prove the truthfulness of my statement. [..]

On August 30, 2024, Erwin Chemerinsky, the dean of the law school at the University of California, Berkeley, called for a new constitution, claiming that failing to make changes would cause the U.S. to “drift toward authoritarianism.” If Chemerinsky were competent to be a law school dean, he would understand that the United States is the Constitution. Chemerinsky’s call for a new constitution is a call for the overthrow of the United States. Will he be arrested as a threat to democracy? Without the Constitution, we would be some other country–which is what they want. The goal is a compliant population with no rights, only privileges that can be revoked for non-compliant behavior. They oppose the idea that government is accountable to people. Their goal is a people who are accountable to the government. Once Kamala is in office, the transformation will be complete.

Dear insouciant American, try to pay attention, try to understand, that the Dean of one of America’s largest law schools is claiming that the US Constitution, the embodiment of the rights of free people, is an oppressive document and stands in the way of “justice and equity.” The Berkeley Law School dean has actually written a book about How the Constitution Threatens the United States. When the Constitution is destroyed, America is destroyed. When law schools have deans too stupid to understand this, it indicates that America has been lost. Dear insouciant American, try to understand that the November election is not about abortion rights. It is not about “inclusion.” It is not about any of the issues about which you are being indoctrinated. It is about whether you have any prospect of continuing life in freedom.

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“The New York Times suggests the memo is “an artful attempt to lower expectations” and boost fundraising..”

Kamala Harris is ‘Clear Underdog’: Campaign Chief (Sp.)

The Democrats enter the final phase of the election as “the clear underdogs”, Harris-Walz campaign chief, Jen O’Malley Dillon, wrote in a memo titled “The State of the Race 65 Days Out.” Dillon, previously confident in Joe Biden’s victory despite poor poll results, had never made such a statement before. The US mainstream media cites Harris’ rising approval numbers, while questioning Dillon’s newfound caution. What’s troubling the Harris-Walz campaign chief?

• Despite record fundraising, increased volunteer interest, and a spike in voter enthusiasm, Dillon cautions that “Donald Trump has a motivated base of support, with more backing and higher favorability than he has had at any point since 2020.” • The upcoming debate between Vice President Harris and Trump, with the latter described in the memo as “a formidable opponent”, is another note of concern. • Dillon observes, “In 2020, the election came down to about 40,000 votes across the battleground states. This November, we anticipate similarly razor-thin margins.” • Additionally, Trump is “a heavily defined candidate”, whereas American voters are less familiar with Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. Dillon urges “aggressive campaigning” to “introduce and define [the Harris-Walz] ticket to the voters.”

The New York Times suggests the memo is “an artful attempt to lower expectations” and boost fundraising, while reinvigorating the base. However, Republicans argue that Harris is the underdog, claiming her poll lead results from deliberate oversampling of Democratic voters. They criticize her as economically “illiterate” and point to her controversial record as Joe Biden’s vice president.

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Nobody watches CNN. Ironically, that’s what they count on.

With Friends Like CNN, Kamala Harris Can’t Fail (Bridge)

How pathetic, how lacking in confidence is this woman, that she is running for president of the United States, the highest office of the land, but won’t agree to an interview with a friendly network without Tim Walz accompanying her. On top of that, the Harris campaign picked the lowest-rated news channel (CNN) to do the interview, hours before a holiday weekend, and on the same night college football season kicked off. In other words, Harris’ handlers were desperately seeking to keep this interview as low key as possible. While CNN’s Dana Bash did ask several substantive questions in this closely watched interview, there was scant critical follow up to Harris’ answers although the vice president has flip-flopped on numerous occasions in the past, most notably on the question of America’s energy resources.

“When you were in Congress, you supported the green New Deal, and in 2019 you said, quote, ‘There is no question, I’m in favor of banning fracking.’ Do you still want to ban fracking?” Bash asked. Harris responded that she no longer wanted to ban fracking and that she had emphasized that position in 2020. Bash reminded that Harris had previously said in a 2019 town hall that she did in fact want to prohibit fracking. When the CNN host went on to ask the vice president why she wanted to change her 2019 position, Harris made vague references to “scientific studies” on climate change, when the real reason for the flip-flop was to secure votes in the swing state of Pennsylvania where fracking is an important part of the economy. In other words, politics as usual.

Bash also questioned Harris for her role as ‘Border Czar’ in the Biden administration. The vice president was asked if she is still of the opinion that border crossings should be decriminalized, a position she took during her 2019 campaign. Harris managed to largely evade the question, simply answering that she believes in “consequence” and that “we have laws that have to be followed and enforced.” The problem is, the Biden administration has done very little to enforce those laws. Conservative estimates report that under President Biden’s watch, there have been over 8.5 million migrant encounters nationwide, 6.7 million of which have been at the Southwest border. Worse yet, 1.7 million known ‘getaways’—illegal immigrants who have evaded Border Patrol— are now living in the interior of the United States without documentation and without having undergone any vetting by immigration officials.

The number of illegal immigrants in the country has roughly doubled under President Biden. The United States had some 10.2 million illegal immigrants in 2020, and another 10 million have entered during Biden’s presidency. In light of this escalating situation, Harris had a lot of answering to do in the interview, which regrettably never happened. Meanwhile, many political commentators fear that a cloud of foul play surrounded the Harris-Walz sit down, and for good reason. Indeed, there is no reason to believe that CNN, a fiercely pro-liberal news channel, did not provide Kamala Harris with the questions prior to the interview.

Suffice it to recall that in the run up to the 2016 presidential showdown between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, former Democratic National Committee interim chair and CNN contributor Donna Brazile was caught sending town hall topics to Hillary Clinton’s campaign. News of the incident was discovered courtesy of leaked emails – a “hack job” conveniently blamed on the Russians, and despite the fact that a DNC employee, Seth Rich, 27, was murdered in cold blood on the streets of Washington, DC shortly after the revelations went public. Police say the young man was the victim of a robbery, although none of his private possessions were taken. Bash also questioned Harris over Biden’s disastrous debate performance that set in motion the effort to remove the president and replace him with Harris.

After Biden stumbled through the June 27 debate against Trump, Harris took to CNN to defend the 81-year-old president’s health and mental acuity. “Do you have any regrets about what you told the American people [about Biden’s health]?” Bash asked. “Not at all,” Harris responded, with a hint of conspiracy. Given Harris’ known inability for articulating complex ideas without the help of a teleprompter, many observers are of the opinion that Biden’s departure at the 11th hour was a deliberate move that protected Harris from having to spend too much time in the public eye before November. We already know from past experience that Harris’ political shelf life is extremely short.

Just four years ago, Harris was forced to withdraw early from the presidential nomination process with poll numbers in the low single digits, yet today she has managed to advance one step from the White House without winning a single vote. All things considered, some might call that very suspicious fortune. The only thing that can explain this surge in popularity is a media industrial complex that is willing to celebrate Kamala Harris as she prepares for her first and possibly last debate against The Donald on September 10. After that it’s anybody’s guess, but given the fact that almost the entire media complex has thrown its hefty support behind Harris, Trump is facing a formidable challenge.

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“Mr. Obama. Voila and fait accompli! If he finds himself appointed rather than elected, he would not be in defiance of the 22nd Amendment..”

Is Kamala Very Very Afraid? (Jim Kunstler)

Lurking behind her is not only the American intel blob of dark forces and sinister figures, but an international blob made up of malevolent groups within and throughout Western Civ, clearly working to bring it down — the Eurocrats wrecking their own countries’ agriculture and their industrial economies while jailing their opponents for thought crimes; the WEFers pushing the demented climate change agenda and ruinous migrant invasions; the bankers looking to seize the “collateral” (property, chattels, investment portfolios) of a billion everyday citizens when the bond Ponzi scheme blows up, as it must; the WHO steered by Bill Gates seeking to inject unsafe vaccines into everybody in order to greatly and quickly reduce the population; the Soros NGO legions working to subvert the public interest here, there, and everywhere; the NATO warmongers trying like hell to start World War Three. . . . Kamala Harris surely understands — if she understands anything — that she has become their chosen pawn, and is at their mercy (they have none).

She should be afraid especially of the American blob. That combine of higher-ups in the CIA, the DOD, the FBI, the DHS, the State Department, and Gawd knows how many lesser-known agencies and “black op” back offices, knows that it is in great danger if Mr. Trump happens to get elected (despite their best efforts to rig things). After all the trips laid on him, all the way up to attempted assassination, you can be sure that Mr. Trump will be coming after the cabal for committing real and serious crimes. They are running scared now. Despite all the power seemingly at their command, nothing has availed so far — not lawfare, not bullets — to stop Mr. Trump’s implacable march back into the Oval Office, where he could possibly succeed in turning the USA back into a functioning republic

Poor Kamala Harris is the blob’s wholly inadequate instrument to fend off this fate. If she continues to perform badly, the blob might not hesitate to try getting rid of her. That may be the blob’s last chance of stopping the election from happening altogether. The nation has never been in the predicament of having the head of a ticket resign or die in the homestretch of an election campaign. There is no provision in the Constitution for it because there are no provisions in the Constitution for political parties per se. It would all be a kind of improv.

And then, of course, America would be stuck with the unfit and incapable “Joe Biden,” heading the government, at least until something else can be worked out. Maybe that working out would just be the final stage of the coup that has been in motion, really, since 2016 when John Brennan, Barack Obama, and James Comey attempted to oust Mr. Trump with RussiaGate. Some kind of “interim commission” might be formed to “solve” the problem of the cancelled election. They’ll look for someone with “proven ability” to serve as provisional president — maybe, someone who has already been president. . . say, Mr. Obama. Voila and fait accompli! If he finds himself appointed rather than elected, he would not be in defiance of the 22nd Amendment. Okay, now try re-thinking how scared Kamala Harris must be.

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“California is one of 15 states that doesn’t ask for photo ID at the ballot box..”

At what point does this become election interference?

California Bill Banning Voter ID Laws Passes Legislature (ET)

A California bill that would ban local governments from requiring voter identification in their elections passed the state assembly, and now awaits the governor’s approval or veto. The measure would ban local governments such as Huntington Beach—where voters recently gave the City Council the go-ahead to impose such a requirement—from enacting voter ID laws and makes clear the state has exclusive jurisdiction when it comes to the voter verification process. Senate Bill 1174, authored by Sen. Dave Min, passed the Assembly in a 57 to 16 vote on Aug. 27. “I have repeatedly told the Huntington Beach City Council members pushing this issue that if they were to produce any evidence of widespread voter fraud, I would lead efforts to change California’s voter eligibility rules. They have not produced any such evidence,” the Irvine Democrat said in an Aug. 30 press release following the Assembly vote.

In May the Senate approved the bill 30–8. Min said his bill would protect against a “patchwork of varying election requirements” throughout the state, blocking all cities from requiring voters to present a government-issued identification to vote. The ban would include charter cities, which have more authority than general-law cities over such things as regulating local police and elections. “We cannot have 100 different charter cities making up 100 different sets of voting rules, based on fringe conspiracy theories,” Min said, referring to questions of election integrity in the 2020 presidential election. In a May 21 Senate floor hearing, Min said SB 1174 would create a statewide standard that prevents cities from enacting their own policies, which he said could disenfranchise voters.

In a recent Assembly Local Government bill analysis, Min argued that voter ID requirements only create barriers for voters but don’t protect against fraud, as voters already must verify their identity when they register. He said the state already automatically recounts some ballots, does signature verification checks, and allows voters to track their ballots. “We will not concede to ploys of voter fraud while an overwhelming body of evidence proves our elections are safe, secure, and above board,” he said. Voters in California are required to show identification only if they didn’t provide a driver’s license number or the last four digits of their Social Security number when registering, but the secretary of state also accepts credit or debit cards, student IDs, or an ID from a commercial establishment.

[..] Huntington Beach City Attorney Michael Gates told The Epoch Times in a recent interview that Min’s bill is “pure political symbolism” in response to the city’s recently passed measure. He said as a charter city, under Article XI, Section 5 (b) of the California Constitution, Huntington Beach has a right to have voter ID, and the state will lose any legal challenges it brings. “The state is running headlong into another legal clash, which it will lose miserably. Huntington Beach has it right, the state has it completely wrong. And all Californians want election integrity. It’s common sense,” he said in a text message to The Epoch Times.

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“..all we guarantee is that eventually there will be a warfighting scenario where the U.S. will end up using nuclear weapons. And then we all die.”

On a Highway to Hell (Scott Ritter)

[..] the Biden administration is now confronted with the possibility and or probability of a much larger, capable Chinese strategic nuclear force capable of surviving a limited U.S. first-strike and delivering a nation-killing nuclear payload to U.S. soil in retaliation. To adjust to this new reality, the U.S. would need to allocate nuclear warheads currently targeted against Russia onto China. This would require that the U.S. not only develop revised target lists for both Russia and China, but also rethink targeting strategies in general, looking to maximum physical destruction over political impact. More dangerously, the U.S. would have to look at employment strategies that maximized the element of surprise to ensure all targets were hit by their designated weapons. This would require a change in the readiness posture and operational deployment areas of U.S. nuclear forces.

With increased readiness comes the need for vigilance against any preemption efforts by a potential nuclear adversary, meaning that U.S. nuclear forces will be placed on a higher alert status. In short, the risk of nuclear war, inadvertent or otherwise, has become exponentially greater. In March the Biden administration reportedly issued a new Nuclear Employment Guidance document reflecting this reality. Nowhere in this guidance is there consideration for using arms control as a means of managing the nuclear equation, either by extending the New START treaty, or working with China to prevent a Chinese nuclear breakout. Instead, the U.S. appears to be concerned about the erosion of nuclear deterrence that will be brought about by diverting weapons dedicated to non-Chinese contingencies. When seen in this light, the answer to the problem is more, not fewer, nuclear weapons.

This is why the U.S. is going to let the New START treaty lapse in February 2026 — once the treaty goes away, so, too, does the cap on the number of deployed warheads, and the U.S. nuclear establishment will be able to build up the U.S. operational nuclear arsenal so that there are enough weapons for every designated target. The world is becoming a very dangerous place. Nuclear weapons offer the illusion of security. By allowing the U.S. nuclear posture to shift away from deterrence toward warfighting, all we guarantee is that eventually there will be a warfighting scenario where the U.S. will end up using nuclear weapons. And then we all die. We are, literally, on a Highway to Hell.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1830702703678472650

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“Bilateral relations are now at probably their historical low point with no prospects for entering a growth trajectory to be seen..”

Russia Says Relations With US At All-Time Low (RT)

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said that Russia-US relations are at a historic low, dismissing the idea that the two sides could gradually improve them in the foreseeable future. In an interview with national broadcaster, Russia 1, the top official emphasized that Washington has been consistently trampling on Moscow’s interests and exerting pressure for several decades. Ties between the two states have reached “a cracking-up point” during Joe Biden’s presidency, according to Peskov, who stressed that the US administration is demonstrating an openly hostile position towards Russia by supporting Ukraine. “Right in the middle of Mr. Biden’s presidency all these processes have culminated […] Bilateral relations are now at probably their historical low point with no prospects for entering a growth trajectory to be seen,” he said.

“The US, despite many statements to the contrary, is directly involved in the Ukraine conflict,” Peskov concluded. Bilateral ties between Russia and the US took a nose-dive in 2022 when Washington and its allies attacked Moscow with a barrage of economic sanctions following the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict. Moreover, the White House has been providing Kiev with substantial economic and military aid, drawing reprobation from Russian officials, who have accused Washington of playing a direct role in the conflict. In addition, the US withdrew from two security treaties, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty and the Open Skies treaty, under the administration of Donald Trump. While the White House under President Joe Biden has extended the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) through 2026, last year Moscow suspended its participation, citing the US role in the Ukraine conflict.

Peskov also cast doubt on statements made by former US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly pledged to resolve the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours if elected a second time. The Republican presidential frontrunner has also claimed that he had an excellent relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin while in office, adding that the conflict would have never started on his watch. “I don’t think there is a magic wand, it is impossible to do anything in a day,” Peskov said. “Although, if we assume that the next US president will make a statement during his inauguration speech that the US stands for peace and is therefore ending its support for Ukraine […], then something in someone’s brain will change.”

Mearsheimer

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For decades, the Americans and their allies “sought total control over Ukraine. They funded nationalist and anti-Russian organizations there; they persistently worked to convince Ukraine that Russia was its eternal enemy..”

50 Countries United Against Russia Under ‘Nazi Banners’ – Lavrov (RT)

The West has always wanted to dismantle Russia and has gone as far as joining forces with the Nazis in Ukraine in an attempt to achieve this goal, Moscow’s top diplomat Sergey Lavrov has said. The foreign minister made the statement during a meeting with students and educators at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations on Monday, the first day of the new academic year in Russia. The West has always been concerned that Russia is “too strong, too independent,” and has wanted to do something about it, “preferably breaking it up,” said Lavrov. “A very indicative story is repeating itself because today, 50 countries have gathered against Russia under Nazi banners, considering the essence of the [Ukrainian leader Vladimir] Zelensky regime,” he continued, referring to the military assistance provided by the US and its allies to Kiev amid the conflict with Russia.

The foreign minister noted that Ukrainian troops have on numerous occasions been filmed wearing Nazi patches or carrying banners similar to those used by Adolf Hitler’s forces during the World War II. The “denazification” of Ukraine was identified by Russian President Vladimir Putin as one of the main goals of Moscow’s military operation against Kiev when it was launched in late February 2022. Lavrov asserted that Moscow was not going to play by Western rules and will not “embed itself into various schemes created without our participation and without taking Russia’s interests into account.” However, he said Putin had made it clear that Moscow remains “open to contacts with the countries of the ‘collective West,’ with the understanding, of course, that they will abandon their openly hostile policies towards our country.”

If the US and its allies do not change their ways, “we will continue to respond resolutely to any unfriendly steps,” Lavrov added. Elsewhere on Monday, Putin said the conflict between Moscow and Kiev had broken out because of “the destructive strategy of the West” regarding Ukraine. For decades, the Americans and their allies “sought total control over Ukraine. They funded nationalist and anti-Russian organizations there; they persistently worked to convince Ukraine that Russia was its eternal enemy and the main threat to its existence,” the Russian leader said. Washington and its “satellites” orchestrated the 2014 Maidan coup in Kiev, which was driven by “radical neo-Nazi groups” that continue to determine Ukraine’s policies to this day, he added.

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“A nuclear disaster that could occur in the region would be most beneficial to Washington..”

Lukashenko Prepares His Weapons: Could Belarus Be Drawn Into The War? (Oncan)

The operation by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region was not just a tactical move by Ukraine, but also a step that revealed the West’s intentions in the ongoing war. The acceptance of this demand raises the possibility that the attacks within Russia, beginning with Kursk, will be designated as the “main offensive line” from the perspective of Ukraine and the West. Before the peace negotiations, which are now expected by everyone to take place “someday,” the West intends to sit at the table as strongly as possible, in exchange for Donbass, which is connected to Russia. Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for the removal of restrictions on the use of long-range missiles in attacks on Russian soil, and it was learned that “some NATO countries” have also prepared a statement with the same demand. While developments on the Kursk front remain tense, significant events have occurred in another important country involved in the Russia-Ukraine confrontation: Belarus.

In recent days, some critical developments have taken place in Belarus that have not received much attention in the media. The Kyiv administration recently violated Belarusian airspace with attack drones, and Belarus’s ready air defense system quickly announced that it had destroyed these drones. This marks the largest military engagement Belarus has had with Ukraine in recent times, despite Belarus’s efforts to avoid becoming directly involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. For Ukraine and the West, Kursk, with its nuclear power plant in the region, is a significant leverage against Russia. A nuclear disaster that could occur in the region would be most beneficial to Washington. What about Belarus? The strategic minds in the West will do everything possible to drag Russia’s closest ally into the hot war. This could include a potential leak at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, located just 16 kilometers from the Belarusian border.

Among the various methods of attacking Russia and Belarus, it is no coincidence that the first thought is of a nuclear leak. The easiest way to overcome the “obstacles” to deploying NATO weapons, or even NATO troops, in Ukraine is through a nuclear leak in the region and the creation of a perception that Russia and Belarus are “unable to control the disaster.” Therefore, in military developments like the attack on Kursk, the most critical point to monitor is not which town is controlled by whom, but how close they are to nuclear power plants.In light of the recent developments on the Kursk front, the Belarusian army has decided to strengthen the units in the Gomel and Mazyr regions. Mazyr is a Belarusian region close to the Dniester River and Kyiv, while Gomel is near Kursk via Bryansk. Special operations forces, ground forces, and missile units, including Polonez and Iskander missile systems, have begun new training and exercises in the designated regions.

Similarly, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to improve border security systems and defense elements, while also amassing troops along the Belarusian border. Meanwhile, plans to drag Belarus into the Russia-Ukraine conflict are still being pursued in the West and Ukraine. Recently, former commander of the Polish Army’s Ground Forces, General W. Skrzypczak, accused Belarus of conducting a “military campaign” against Poland and called for the establishment of a “Belarusian legion” in his country.

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“..It affects about a third of our imports from Russia.

In Slovakia, the situation is even worse, these supplies account for about 40% there..”

Hungary Can’t Survive Without Russian Oil – FM (RT)

Hungary cannot survive without Russian oil, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has warned, stressing that Ukraine’s decision to suspend transit poses a serious challenge for Budapest. Kiev halted the transit of crude supplied by Russian energy giant Lukoil via the Druzhba pipeline in June, citing sanctions. The measure has directly hit landlocked Hungary and Slovakia, depriving them of oil previously exported by Lukoil through Ukrainian territory. In an interview with Russian business daily RBK on Monday, Szijjarto said Hungary will be completely deprived of oil without supplies from Russia. “We will not be able to feed the country in a broad sense. We simply will not be able to meet the demand for fuel… because we do not have sufficient alternative infrastructure,” the diplomat said. “You just have to look at the numbers… We do not want to take such risks,” Szijjarto added. “Therefore, the fact that Ukraine has made such a decision is a very serious challenge for us. It affects about a third of our imports from Russia.

In Slovakia, the situation is even worse, these supplies account for about 40% there,” he stressed. Kiev imposed sanctions on Lukoil in 2018, having banned the company from divesting its business in the country, as well as prohibiting trade operations and participation in the privatization or leasing of state property. Lukoil still sent crude via the southern arm of the Druzhba pipeline as EU sanctions did not target these flows. The EU prohibited transport of Russian crude oil by sea in December 2022 as part of far-reaching sanctions on Moscow over the Ukraine conflict. Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic have been granted exemptions by Brussels as they source alternative supplies. Slovakia and Hungary are the only EU member states that have rejected the bloc’s policies on supplying Kiev with military aid amid the conflict with Moscow. Both states have repeatedly called for the crisis to be solved through diplomacy.

Last week, Politico reported that Budapest had proposed a solution for the restoration of halted Russian oil flows by rebranding Lukoil products. That way, the crude shipped via Ukraine could be officially sold to Hungarian energy giant MOL before it crosses the border. The arrangement could reportedly mean paying an additional $1.50 per barrel to secure transit outside of previous agreements. Szijjarto told RBK that a temporary solution to the crisis situation could be found, stressing that “in the long term, we need to look for another, legally significant solution.” The Hungarian diplomat traveled to Russia last week to discuss energy security issues. Budapest is “satisfied with Russian energy cooperation, which is one of the guarantees of the country’s food security,” Szijjarto wrote on Facebook after meeting with the head of Russian energy giant Gazprom, Aleksey Miller.

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ICC, Ukraine, HRW… And Putin got a welcome with all honors.

Soros-Bankrolled Human Rights Watch Tells Mongolia To Arrest Putin (RT)

The George Soros-funded organization Human Rights Watch (HRW) has called on the government of Mongolia to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin during his trip to the country, which would be in accordance with the Asian state’s obligations as a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Putin arrived in Mongolia on Monday at the invitation of the country’s president, Ukhnaa Khurelsukh, to attend a ceremony commemorating the 1939 Battle of Khalkhin Gol, in which Soviet and Mongolian forces defeated the Imperial Japanese Army. Ahead of his visit, HRW, which has received over $100 million from Soros’ Open Society Foundations, issued a statement on its website warning Mongolia against allowing Putin to enter the country.

“Mongolia would be defying its international obligations as an ICC member if it allows Russian President Vladimir Putin to visit without arresting him,” the HRW’s senior international justice counsel, Maria Elena Vignoli said, claiming that welcoming the Russian President would “undermine the crucial principle that no one, no matter how powerful, is above the law.” Last year, the ICC issued a warrant for Putin’s arrest, accusing him of “unlawful deportation of population (children)” and “unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine” to Russia amid the ongoing conflict between Moscow and Kiev. Russia has rejected the ICC’s accusations as absurd, stressing that the evacuation of civilians from a combat zone is not a war crime. Moscow has also pointed out that it has never signed the Rome Statute, on which the ICC is based, meaning that the court has no jurisdiction in the matter.

Meanwhile, Mongolian authorities, despite having signed the Rome Statute on which the ICC is based, have reportedly said that they have no intention of arresting Putin, according to Bloomberg, which cited two sources familiar with the matter. Putin arrived in the Mongolian capital on Monday and was greeted by an honorary guard at Ulaanbaatar Airport. According to presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, he will have a “rich program” on Tuesday as part of his state visit, which will include a meeting with his Mongolian counterpart, negotiations in various formats dedicated to bilateral relations, as well a signing ceremony of Russian-Mongolian intergovernmental documents. Ahead of the trip, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow had “no concerns” about Putin’s visit and the ICC warrant, stating that “we have excellent relations with our friends from Mongolia,” and that all issues concerning the Russian president’s trip had been “worked out” beforehand.

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They really want the oil.

US Seizes Maduro’s Plane – CNN (RT)

The US government has confiscated an airplane reportedly used by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, claiming it violates Washington’s sanctions against Caracas, CNN reported on Monday. The Americans have charged Maduro with drug trafficking and refused to recognize his victories in the last two Venezuelan presidential elections. “Seizing the foreign head of state’s plane is unheard-of for criminal matters. We’re sending a clear message here that no one is above the law, no one is above the reach of US sanctions,” an unnamed Washington official told CNN, which first reported the story on Monday. According to CNN, the plane is worth around $13 million and was seized in cooperation with Dominican authorities. The US outlet did not identify the airplane, saying only it was seized in the Dominican Republic and flown to Miami, Florida. The departments of Homeland Security, Commerce, and Justice were involved in the seizure.

The Miami Herald identified the jet as a Dassault Falcon 900EX, a French-built corporate jet that has previously visited Cuba, Brazil and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, “often with Maduro on board.” It appears to be registered in San Marino. The Herald cited records from the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) showing that a Florida-based company sold the plane to a company in St. Vincent, which then resold it to San Marino. The US government alleges that the reseller was a Venezuelan shell company and that the sale violated its sanctions on Venezuela. American officials described the jet as Venezuela’s equivalent of the US “Air Force One,” noting that Maduro has flown it to a number of places. It was unclear how it ended up in the Dominican Republic, as Venezuela suspended commercial air travel with the island after the July 28 presidential election.

According to CNN, the US intends to confiscate the plane through asset forfeiture process. This means Venezuela could theoretically challenge it in court – if it can find a way around the sanctions to do so. This is the second Venezuelan jet to be seized by the US this year. In February, Argentina sent the US a Boeing 747-300M cargo plane confiscated in 2022, because Caracas allegedly bought it from a sanctioned Iranian company. Maduro called the seizure “a blatant theft” on part of Argentinian President Javier Milei’s government. Washington has seized $2 billion worth of Venezuelan bank accounts and assets in recent years, one unnamed official told CNN.

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“..Fauci and others used their positions during COVID to enforce “totalitarian controls that were not science-based.”

RFK Jr: “A Reckoning” For “Immoral, Homicidal” COVID Criminality Needed (MN)

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has said that individuals who engaged in “criminal” behaviour during the pandemic still need to be held accountable. Kennedy, who is in line for a health related position in Donald Trump’s administration should he be elected, declared recently that there needs to be a “reckoning” brought upon those responsible. Speaking at the Limitless Expo, Kennedy explicitly referenced Anthony Fauci, noting “I wrote a book about Fauci. It’s a great book. There are 2,200 footnotes in the book… I invited people to find problems with the book… And nobody ever told us any factual error in that book.” He charged that Fauci and others used their positions during COVID to enforce “totalitarian controls that were not science-based.” “It’s a story, really, of people involved in really terrible, immoral, homicidal criminal behavior,” Kennedy urged.

He noted that effective treatments were repressed, stating “Ivermectin was a very, very devastating cure for COVID. It literally obliterated COVID.”“By depriving people of Ivermectin, many, many people, millions of people around the globe, died, and they didn’t need to,” Kennedy added, charging that Fauci and others pressured the FDA to discourage such treatments in favour of relentlessly pushing unproven and untested vaccines. “There were cures for COVID from day one, very effective cures. But they didn’t want that. They wanted the vaccine only,” Kennedy posited, adding “if they admitted that any of [the treatments] were effective, the whole vaccine project would have fallen apart.”

Kennedy added that after the vaccines, myocarditis cases among young people, particularly athletes, exploded. “On average, it was, I think, 29 a month globally, athletes who died on the field. We’re getting down to hundreds a month now,” Kennedy emphasised. He concluded that “the science is out there now, and it’s devastating.” After endorsing Donald Trump last month, RFK Jr. declared that he is ready to help “make America healthy again.”

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“The Media Matters lawsuit directly challenges the ability of media outlets to create false narratives to advance a political agenda..”

Why Musk’s Lawsuit Against Media Matters . . . Matters (Turley)

[..]But Musk’s lawsuit may be the most defining for our age of advocacy journalism. He is suing Media Matters, the left-wing outlet founded by David Brock, whom Time described as “one of the most influential operatives in the Democratic Party.” Although Brock is no longer with the site, Media Matters has long been accused as being a weaponized media outlet for the left. After Musk dismantled the censorship system at Twitter, he became something of an obsession for Media Matters, which targeted his revenue sources. The outlet ran a report suggesting that advertisements of major corporations were being posted next to pro-Nazi posts or otherwise hateful content on the platform. As I discuss in my new book, this effort mirrored similar moves by the anti-free speech movement against Musk to force him to restore censorship systems. Companies including Apple, IBM, Comcast and Lionsgate Entertainment quickly joined the effective boycott to squeeze Musk.

The problem is that it is hard to squeeze the world’s richest man financially. Musk told the companies to pound sand and told his lawyers to file suit. The allegations in the lawsuit read like a textbook on advocacy journalism. Media Matters is accused of knowingly misrepresenting the real user experience by manipulating the algorithms to produce the pairing alleged in its story. The complaint accuses Media Matters of running its manipulation to produce extremely unlikely pairings, such that one toxic match appeared for “only one viewer (out of more than 500 million) on all of X: Media Matters.” In other words, the organization wanted to write a hit piece connecting X to pro-Nazi material and proceeded to artificially create pairings between that material and corporate advertisements. It then ran the story as news. Indeed, two defendant employees of Media Matters did not deny that they were aware of the alleged manipulation and that they were seeking to poison the well for advertisers in order to drain advertising revenues for X.

Although the media covered another judge blocking an effort by state officials to sue Media Matters over the anti-Musk effort, there has been comparably less coverage of the green light for the lawsuit in Texas. U.S. District Judge Reed O’Connor of the Northern District of Texas rejected an effort to dismiss the case on jurisdictional and other grounds. Musk will be able to continue his claims of tortious interference with existing contracts, business disparagement and tortious interference with prospective economic advantage. Musk is also suing the Global Alliance for Responsible Media, which also targeted advertisers to choke off targeted sites. Not surprisingly, although the media has heralded lawsuits like the one by Dominion Voting System against Fox News (which led to a large settlement), they are overwhelmingly hostile toward the Musk lawsuits.

It is not hard to see why. The Media Matters lawsuit directly challenges the ability of media outlets to create false narratives to advance a political agenda. As with the CNN and New York Times cases, it can expose how the media first decides on a conclusion and then frames or even invents the facts to support it. While rejecting the longstanding principles of journalism such as objectivity, these media outlets are citing the cases and defenses secured by those now-outdated media organizations. They want to be advocates, but they also want to be protected as journalists. These cases still face tough challenges, including challenging jury polls in places like New York. However, they are exposing the bias that now characterizes much of American journalism. In the age of advocacy journalism, a bill has come due. That is why Musk’s lawsuit against Media Matters . . . well . . . matters.

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We don’t need Kyle Bass to tell us that. Moreover, not only does oil “move” our world, at least half of it is built from oil.

Kyle Bass Says ‘Green’ War To Blackball Oil Was Doomed To Fail (ZH)

Hayman Capital Management founder and CIO Kyle Bass explained in a Bloomberg interview that the mounting backlash against environmental, social, and governance investing in recent years is primarily a response to the extreme demands of radical climate activists, or “green” defenders. Bass argued that these activists were so disconnected from reality that their uncompromising stance on blackballing the fossil fuel industry—without acknowledging that energy transitions can take upwards of half a century—has fueled the backlash. He said plans to moderate fossil fuel usage over decades from the start would’ve possibly prevented the backlash. Bass said the ESG backlash derives from climate activists’ demands that fossil fuels be abandoned immediately. He said the demands were never realistic.

“There were all of these idiots that were just saying, if anyone is doing hydrocarbons, we’re going to blackball them from doing business or from receiving capital,” Bass said, adding, “And so Texas lashed back and said, if you’re going to blackball someone that’s producing hydrocarbons, we’re not going to do business with you either.” He said, “Energy transitions take 40 or 50 years,” pointing out that people “think we can just turn hydrocarbons off and turn on alternative power. But they have no idea how the grid works and no idea how business works.” Bass said the focus should now be on efficiency and electrification. He said the long-term goal should be the energy transition to nuclear. Until then, he noted, fossil fuels and renewable energy sources are “going to coexist for decades and decades to come.”

In a separate interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box” in 2022, Bass said, “The desire for the world to engage in alternative energy is one that I think we all would love to see happen, but there are certain scientific realities, and there are certain narratives that get pushed by NGOs and teenagers. And I think we’ve been taking policy cues from NGOs and teenagers for a long time.”

Bass pointed out that a proper energy transition takes upwards of a half-century. In the interview with CNBC, he said, “The move from coal to natural gas took forty years. They take a very, very, very long time. We can’t just flip a switch.” In his most recent interview with Bloomberg, Bass said, “Skirting hydrocarbons is like bringing politics into investing,” adding, “If you’re willing to give up returns for that, then so be it. But I think that’s naive and it’s a breach of fiduciary duty.” The latest Bloomberg data shows that about half of the US power grid is powered by natural gas generators. This summer, renewable energy power has slid, with coal now producing more power than wind and solar.

In recent years, ESG policies have discouraged investment by banks, funds, pensions, and other entities in the natural gas and coal industries. The problem with this is that unreliable solar and wind can’t power artificial data centers 24/7. We’ve noted that the financial industry’s initial rush to commit to net zero carbon footprints has hit a reality check in a note titled “ESG Frustration And Backlash In The Banking Sector Continues.” The big takeaway is that anyone who puts their climate crisis or woke religion first ahead of rational decision-making is doomed to fail.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

RFK measles
https://twitter.com/i/status/1830264332178907244

 

 

RFK seed oils

 

 

Ozempic
https://twitter.com/i/status/1830688829344489522

 

 

Puppies
https://twitter.com/i/status/1830352407928229915

 

 

1 month
https://twitter.com/i/status/1830560345557016842

 

 

Speeding

 

 

Wallace Line
https://twitter.com/i/status/1830574367933112788

 

 

SNL 1998
https://twitter.com/i/status/1830470874740441513

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in wartime with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.

 

 

 

 

 

Jan 122017
 
 January 12, 2017  Posted by at 10:24 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  5 Responses »


Matisse Icarus 1944

Trump Slams BuzzFeed As “Failing Pile Of Garbage”, CNN As “Fake News” (ZH)
Scorching Press Conference Shows Trump Won’t Have An Easy Presidency (GT)
Tillerson Says China Can’t Have Access to South China Sea Isles (BBG)
The Deep State Goes to War with President-Elect (Greenwald)
America Versus the Deep State (Jim Kunstler)
160 Million Americans Can’t Afford To Treat A Broken Arm (BI)
Suddenly, Home Sale Agreements Are Falling Apart Across the US (BBG)
Perils Of The Icarus Trade As The World Runs Short Of Dollars (AEP)
China’s $34 Trillion Experiment Is Exploding (Kyle Bass)
China To Merge State Media For Stronger Voice In Financial News (R.)
Bitcoin Collapses, Chinese Latecomers Get Fleeced (WS)
VW Officials Destroyed Files, E-Mails as Diesel Scheme Unraveled (BBG)
India Central Bank Won’t Share Details Of Modi Cash Ban, Mystery Deepens (BBG)
Greece Sends Navy Ship To Lesbos To House Freezing Refugees (AP)
Weather Wreaks Havoc In Northern Greece (Kath.)
Refugees In Greece Defy Extreme Cold To Help The Homeless (AJ)

 

 

Well, I was entertained..

Trump Slams BuzzFeed As “Failing Pile Of Garbage”, CNN As “Fake News” (ZH)

In an epic (mutual) trolling between president-elect Trump on one hand and BuzzFeed and CNN, on the other, the two media organizations which issued yesterday’s unsubstantiated report about Russia having compromising information on the president-elect, Trump first addressed the question of why he referred to Nazi Germany, saying it is “disgraceful” that intelligence communities would allow the release of any information. “That’s something Nazi Germany would have done and did do,” he says. He then unleashed on Buzzfeed which alone published the 35-page memo behind the Russian allegations, saying “Buzzfeed which is a failing pile of garbage… will suffer the consequences” .

And then, in an even more stunning episode, Trump slammed CNN reporter Jim Acosta, who he also called out during the presser over their report on a two-page synopsis they claim was presented to Trump. With Trump looking to call on other reporters, Jim Acosta yelled out, “Since you are attacking us, can you give us a question?” “Not you,” Trump said. “Your organization is terrible!” Acosta pressed on, “You are attacking our news organization, can you give us a chance to ask a question, sir?” Trump countered by telling him “don’t be rude.” “I’m not going to give you a question,” Trump responded. “Don’t be rude. I’m not going to give you a question. You are fake news!” Trump responded, before calling on a reporter from Breitbart.

A snubbed Jim Acosta then tweeted the following: “Fortunately ABC’s Cecilia Vega asked my question about whether any Trump associates contacted Russians. Trump said no.”These exchanges followed an initial statement by Trump spokesman Sean Spicer who said that “for all the talk lately about ‘fake news,’ this political witch hunt by some in the media…is frankly shameful & disgraceful…. Highly irresponsible for a left-wing blog… to drop highly salacious and flat out false information on the Internet.” Following this, we expect the war between Trump and the media in general, or at least CNN in particular, to reach biblical proportions.

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View from China offical media.

Scorching Press Conference Shows Trump Won’t Have An Easy Presidency (GT)

US President-elect Donald Trump, who will officially take office on January 20, held his first press conference since winning the presidency on Wednesday local time. In about an hour, the most questions raised were regarding reports of Russia having compromising information on Trump. He also spent some time responding to how he will handle ties between his business and his presidency. Trump insisted on building a wall on US border with Mexico and the latter is going to pay for it. He also reiterated the future abolishment of Obamacare and will replace it with a new medical reform plan. Trump mentioned China six times on four issues, including describing Jack Ma of Alibaba as an incredible person and that they are going to do tremendous things together.

He said the US is losing hundreds of billions of dollars every year due to trade imbalance with China, Japan, Mexico and other countries. On the issue of Russia hacking the 2016 election, he noted his nation gets hacked by other countries as well, including China, which resulted in the loss of personal information of 22 million employees who work for the US government. He said that “Russia and other countries — and other countries, including China, which has taken total advantage of us economically, totally advantage of us in the South China Sea by building their massive fortress, total. Russia, China, Japan, Mexico, all countries will respect us far more, far more than they do under past administrations.” During the conference, which attracted widespread attention, Trump did not mention the Taiwan question, nor did he articulate how he will handle Sino-US ties. Relevant questions were not raised by reporters either.

It looks like that US mainstream public opinion still finds it hard to accept the fact that Trump has been elected as their new president. They are suspicious about and alert to Trump’s friendly attitude toward Russia, his family businesses and how he would transform Obama’s medical policy. US media outlets are particularly eager to hype Trump’s relations with Russia and the Kremlin’s alleged influence on the election. It seems they are, intentionally or unintentionally, restricting Washington’s ability to improve ties with Moscow under Trump.

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Tillerson said many things, but I can’t find a good report on it. Watched the first bit, before the Trump show, wrote some stuff to a friend:

Watching the conformation thing, Unreal.  All these senators saying stuff about Russia, and he can’t really tell them they’re wrong, or they won’t confirm him. But he himself knows much more about Russia than they do, yet that’s not what they’re looking for. They just want him to say bad things about Putin. 

Marco Rubio asks: Do you think Putin is a war criminal. (Tillerson: I would not use that word.) And now goes off listing all the atrocities Russia is supposed to have committed in Aleppo.  As reported by US fake media. Without sources on the ground… Next list of “countless” people supposedly killed by Putin in Russia. All Tillerson can say on all these things is “i don’t have sufficient information”.  Next: Sen. Menendez. Topic? Russia!

Tillerson had interesting views on climate change too. Yeah, he has a mind of his own, not a blind Trump follower. Does that surprise anyone? Certainly not Trump.

Tillerson Says China Can’t Have Access to South China Sea Isles (BBG)

President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for secretary of state said China must be denied access to artificial islands built in the South China Sea, a move that would raise the risk of conflict between the world’s biggest economies. Hours into a confirmation hearing with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where he was grilled extensively about his views on Russia, former Exxon Mobil Corp. chief Rex Tillerson said that a failure to respond to China’s actions had allowed it to “keep pushing the envelope” in the South China Sea. “We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that first the island-building stops and second your access to those islands is also not going to be allowed,” he said when asked whether he would support a more aggressive posture in the South China Sea. He compared China’s actions to those of Russia in the Crimea.

The remark is the latest from Trump’s administration to signal a more aggressive defense posture against China in addition to calls for a tougher line on trade. Trump earlier questioned the U.S.’s policy of recognizing Beijing over the government in Taiwan, and criticized China’s ties with North Korea. China pushed back against Tillerson’s comments on Thursday even while saying it agreed with him on areas of cooperation between the two countries. On Monday, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Chairman Jack Ma met with Trump and discussed plans to create 1 million new jobs in the U.S. by helping small businesses sell goods to China. “Like the U.S., China has the right within its own territory to carry out normal activities,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said at a regular briefing in Beijing in response to a question on Tillerson’s remarks. “That is within the limits of its sovereignty.”

Tillerson offered no detail about how the U.S. could stop China from building islands, or prevent access, but in recent years the U.S. has consistently conducted freedom of navigation operations throughout the area. “This is the sort of off-the-cuff remark akin to a tweet that pours fuel on the fire and maybe makes things worse,” said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra. “Short of going to war with China, there is nothing the Americans can do.”

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“.. there is no bigger favor that Trump opponents can do for him than attacking him with such lowly, shabby, obvious shams, recruiting large media outlets to lead the way. When it comes time to expose actual Trump corruption and criminality, who is going to believe the people and institutions who have demonstrated they are willing to endorse any assertions no matter how factually baseless..”

The Deep State Goes to War with President-Elect (Greenwald)

In January, 1961, Dwight Eisenhower delivered his farewell address after serving two terms as U.S. president; the five-star general chose to warn Americans of this specific threat to democracy: “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.” That warning was issued prior to the decadelong escalation of the Vietnam War, three more decades of Cold War mania, and the post-9/11 era, all of which radically expanded that unelected faction’s power even further.

This is the faction that is now engaged in open warfare against the duly elected and already widely disliked president-elect, Donald Trump. They are using classic Cold War dirty tactics and the defining ingredients of what has until recently been denounced as “Fake News.” Their most valuable instrument is the U.S. media, much of which reflexively reveres, serves, believes, and sides with hidden intelligence officials. And Democrats, still reeling from their unexpected and traumatic election loss as well as a systemic collapse of their party, seemingly divorced further and further from reason with each passing day, are willing — eager — to embrace any claim, cheer any tactic, align with any villain, regardless of how unsupported, tawdry and damaging those behaviors might be.

The serious dangers posed by a Trump presidency are numerous and manifest. There are a wide array of legitimate and effective tactics for combatting those threats: from bipartisan congressional coalitions and constitutional legal challenges to citizen uprisings and sustained and aggressive civil disobedience. All of those strategies have periodically proven themselves effective in times of political crisis or authoritarian overreach. But cheering for the CIA and its shadowy allies to unilaterally subvert the U.S. election and impose its own policy dictates on the elected president is both warped and self-destructive. Empowering the very entities that have produced the most shameful atrocities and systemic deceit over the last six decades is desperation of the worst kind.

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I like Jim’s thinking that since WalMart parking lots are the new town square, and WalMart sells pitchforks and patio torches…..

America Versus the Deep State (Jim Kunstler)

The bamboozlement of the public is nearly complete. The Deep State has persuaded 80% of Americans that all news is propaganda, especially the news emanating from the Deep State’s own intel department. They’re still shooting for 100%. The fakest of all “fake news” stories turns out to be… “Russia Hacks Election.” It was reported conclusively Saturday on the front page of The New York Times, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Deep State: “Putin Led a Complex Cyberattack Scheme to Aid Trump, Report Finds: WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia directed a vast cyberattack aimed at denying Hillary Clinton the presidency and installing Donald J. Trump in the Oval Office, the nation’s top intelligence agencies said in an extraordinary report they delivered on Friday to Mr. Trump.”

You can be sure that this is now the “official” narrative aimed at the history books, sealing the illegitimacy of Trump’s election. It was served up with no direct proof, only the repeated “assertions” that it was so. In fact, it’s just this repetition of assertions-without-proof that defines propaganda. It can also be interpreted as a declaration of war against an incoming president. The second civil war now takes shape: It begins inside the groaning overgrown apparatus of the government itself. Perhaps after that it spreads to the WalMart parking lots that have become America’s new town square. (WalMart sells pitchforks and patio torches.) Did the Russians make Hillary Clinton look bad? Or did Hillary Clinton manage to do that herself? The NSA propaganda was designed as a smokescreen to conceal the veracity of the Wikileaks releases.

Whoever actually rooted out the DNC and Podesta emails for Wikileaks ought to get the Pulitizer Prize for the outstanding public service of disclosing exactly how dishonest the Hillary operation was. The story may have climaxed with Trump’s Friday NSA briefing, the heads of the various top intel agencies all assembled in one room to emphasize the solemn authority of the Deep State’s power. Trump worked a nice piece of ju-jitsu afterward, pretending to accept the finding as briefly and hollowly as possible and promising to “look into the matter” after January 20th — when he can tear a new asshole in the NSA. I hope he does. This hulking security apparatus has become a menace to the Republic.

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This is the America that Obama leaves for Trump.

160 Million Americans Can’t Afford To Treat A Broken Arm (BI)

A lot of Americans are really struggling. The precarious personal finance situation of Americans has made news for years. It is something we’ve written about a lot at Business Insider. Elevate’s Center for the New Middle Class wanted to look into the issue to find when an unexpected expense becomes a crisis for ordinary Americans. And the results were pretty depressing. Elevate carried out a study based on a 10-minute online questionnaire surveying 502 nonprime (credit score below 700) and 525 prime Americans (credit score of 700 or above). It turns out that nonprime Americans with credit scores below 700 are likely to be hit harder, and more often, by unexpected expenses than prime Americans. 160 million Americans come under the nonprime category, according to the study.

“A bill becomes a crisis for nonprime Americans at $1,400. For Prime, it’s $2,900,” the study said. “An unexpected expense becomes a significant disruption to prime Americans when it is 53% of their monthly income. Nonprime Americans can only swallow a 31% impact to their income.” The study noted that many common expenses, such as covering the out-of-pocket on a broken arm, an apartment security deposit, or replacing a vehicle transmission, cost more than $1,400. “It’s hard for many to believe that unexpected car repairs can cause a major upset in a household’s finances,” Jonathan Walker, executive director of Elevate’s Center for the New Middle Class, said. “Unfortunately, it happens all too often, simply because nonprime Americans don’t have the available resources to help absorb some of these financial shocks. This can cause a downward spiral on their daily finances as well as their credit history.”

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If it quacks like a bubble…

Suddenly, Home Sale Agreements Are Falling Apart Across the US (BBG)

Spending months to find the perfect home in your price range, only to have your mortgage application rejected, or a home inspection turn up expensive repairs, is a nightmare—one that is coming true with increasing frequency, according to a new report from real estate listings website Trulia. A Trulia analysis of U.S. listings shows that 3.9% of homes that moved from for-sale to pending moved back to for-sale again, nearly double the rate in 2015. Such “failed sales” increased in 96 of the 100 biggest U.S. metros, with big swings in areas large and small, rich and poor. That includes Los Angeles and Charleston, S.C., as well as San Jose and Akron, Ohio.

In Ventura County, Calif., where the median home value is $548,000, 11.6% of prospective sales failed to close in 2016. That’s the highest in the U.S., up from 3.1% in 2015. Tucson, where the median home price is $176,000, had the second-highest rate of failed sales, at 10.8%, up from 3.5% the year before. The problem of failed sales has been most acute for cheaper homes and older ones: Some 6.3% of sales of starter homes fell through last year, according to Trulia’s analysis, compared with 3.6% of so-called premium home sales. Homes built in the 1960s had the highest fail rates, while sales of newer and older houses were more likely to go through.

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“There will certainly be tax cuts but circumstances are nothing like the Reagan stimulus of the early 1980s when the US was coming out of recession.”

Perils Of The Icarus Trade As The World Runs Short Of Dollars (AEP)

The great unknown is where the pain threshold lies in a global system with debt ratios that are now roughly 40pc of GDP higher than just before the Lehman crisis. Bank of America fears a further rise in yields of 50 to 75 basis points may be enough to trigger a “financial event”. HSBC’s latest global outlook is even darker. Indeed, it is astonishing. The bank expects yields on 10-year US Treasuries to push a little higher to 2.5pc before crashing back to historic lows of 1.35pc by the end of the year, taking global yields with them. Markets will conclude by the summer that Trumpian stimulus does not add up to much, and that the reflation narrative is a hoax. “We believe that equities are walking a tightrope, and there is a fairly long way to fall,” said the bank.

While I do not take a view on stock prices, HSBC’s outlook is broadly in line with my own. The world cannot easily withstand the sort of Fed tightening now being etched into forecasts by the macro-economic fraternity. The Institute of International Finance says debt has reached $217 trillion, a record ratio of 325pc of GDP. What is remarkable is that even in mature economies – trying to ‘deleverage’ – the ratio jumped by 6pc of GDP to 390pc over the first nine months of last year. There is almost nowhere left to hide. Corporate debt in emerging markets has risen from $6.5 trillion to $25.5 trillion since Lehman, with the ‘credit gap’ signalling danger in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Chile, Turkey, and Indonesia. Total off-shore dollar debt has risen fivefold to $10 trillion since 2000.

The financial system is clearly out of kilter. The pattern of the last 35 years is a steadily falling “natural” rate of interest, requiring ever more radical action by central banks at the trough of each cycle. The policy elites badly misjudged the force of this ‘Wicksellian’ slide in the build-up to the global crisis in 2008. While the subprime saga makes for electrifying Holywood films, it was not the reason why the Western banking system collapsed. The trigger of the crash was overly tight money. The ECB raised rates into the teeth of the storm. Hawkish Fed rhetoric from March to August 2008 pushed up US borrowing costs sharply, ignoring warnings from some of their own staff that the money supply was by then imploding. Both banks under-estimated the fragility of the system.

Central bankers are more alert this time but they have not scrapped their infamous ‘DSGE’ models, and I suspect that political pressure – from Congress, or regional Fed banks, or from Germany – will cause them to over-tighten again. We may find that three US rate rises and even a smidgeon of ECB tapering are all it takes to detonate the next crisis. Markets seem to be betting that Donald Trump’s fiscal largesse will be large enough to break the deflationary grip. HSBC says they are “cherry-picking the good bits” from his campaign. We do not yet know whether his infrastructure plan really exists. There will certainly be tax cuts but circumstances are nothing like the Reagan stimulus of the early 1980s when the US was coming out of recession.

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Excellent by Bass. Recommended. h/t Valuewalk

China’s $34 Trillion Experiment Is Exploding (Kyle Bass)

Over the past decade, we have worked diligently to identify anomalies in financial systems, governments, and companies around the world. We have been vigorously studying China over the last year, with the view that the rapid credit expansion in the Chinese banking system will result in significant credit losses that will require the recapitalization of Chinese banks and materially pressure the Chinese currency. This outcome will have many near-term and long-term effects on countries and markets around the world. In other words, what happens in China will not stay in China. The unwavering faith that the Chinese will somehow be able to successfully avoid anything more severe than a moderate economic slowdown by continuing to rely on the perpetual expansion of credit reminds us of the belief in 2006 that US home prices would never decline.

[..] China has allowed (and encouraged) its banking system to grow into a gargantuan $34 trillion behemoth (a whopping 340% of Chinese GDP). For context, consider what the United States banking system looked like going into the GFC of 2007-2009. On-balance sheet, the US banking system had about $1 trillion of equity and $16.5 trillion of banking system assets (100% of US GDP). If non-banks and off-balance sheet assets are included, it would add another $12.5 trillion to get to about 175% of GDP. US banks lost approximately $650 billion of their equity throughout the GFC. We believe that Chinese banks will lose approximately $3.5 trillion of equity if China’s banking system loses 10% of assets.

Historically, China has lost far in excess of 10% of assets during a non-performing loan cycle (The Bank for International Settlements estimated that Chinese banking system losses throughout the 1998-2001 cycle exceeded 30% of GDP). We expect losses in this cycle to exceed prior cycles. Remember, 30% of Chinese GDP approaches $3.6 trillion today. Think about how much quantitative easing (QE) the US Fed had to create in order to entice $650 billion of common and preferred equity into the US banks and prevent a Japanese-style deflationary bust. The Fed had to expand its balance sheet by roughly $4.5 trillion.

How significantly will the Chinese central bank have to expand its balance sheet in order to compensate for $3.5 trillion of lost bank capital? What will that do to the renminbi? What will happen to Chinese credit growth and broader Asian credit growth while this happens? If the US Fed’s experience serves as a proxy for what could happen in China, we believe that China will likely have to print in excess of 10 trillion US dollars’ worth of yuan to recapitalize its banking system. The weakening renminbi is the product of larger banking system problems. By the time the loss cycle has peaked, we believe the renminbi will have depreciated in excess of 30% versus the US dollar.

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What country does this remind me of?

China To Merge State Media For Stronger Voice In Financial News (R.)

China is set to consolidate five state media companies to create a “modern financial media group” to increase the state’s voice in economic and financial news coverage, the state-run Xinhua news agency said on Wednesday. Since taking power in 2012, President Xi Jinping, who has called for Beijing to take a bigger role in a global governance system, has stepped up media control and scrutiny to project China’s “soft power” and better communicate its message. The State Council, China’s cabinet, has given Xinhua permission to acquire and consolidate China Securities Journal, Shanghai Securities News, Economic Information Daily and Xinhua Publishing House and launch a new company under the banner China Fortune Media Corporation Group.

The move aims at “deepening the central authority’s reforms of the cultural system” and “increasing mainstream media’s influence in the area of financial information,” Xinhua said in a notice. The new financial news-focused company will be launched in Beijing on Thursday next week, it said. While visiting three major state news agencies in February last year, Xi ordered the organizations to strictly follow the Communist Party’s leadership and focus on “positive reporting”, Xinhua reported at the time. “All news media run by the Party must work to speak for the Party’s will and its propositions and protect the Party’s authority and unity,” Xi was quoted as saying. The three media Xi visited – Xinhua, People’s Daily and state-owned broadcaster CCTV – are considered by the central leadership as the “throat and tongue” of the party.

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“No one is going to bail out these folks that got in late and are losing a ton of money on their bitcoin bets, or those that tried to catch that knife and got their fingers sliced off. On the contrary. Learn your lesson – that’s what Chinese authorities seem to say..”

Bitcoin Collapses, Chinese Latecomers Get Fleeced (WS)

The People’s Bank of China announced on Wednesday that it is probing the major bitcoin exchanges in Beijing and Shanghai – BTCC, Huobi, and OKCoin – for a list of violations, including market manipulation, money laundering, and unauthorized financing. This is part of the PBOC’s efforts to crack down on capital flight, a major escalation from last week, when Chinese officials warned investors – if you can call them “investors” – to be careful with bitcoin. That warning came at the peak of the spike and tipped the whole thing over. Ironically, China’s many other crackdowns on capital flight have pushed the hapless Chinese, who want their capital to flee, into bitcoin. It was seen as a way of converting their yuan into something other than yuan, which they fear will depreciate relentlessly.

The yuan lost 6.5% against the dollar last year, its worst year since 1994, which is nothing compared to some other major currencies, such as the British pound which lost 16.3% against the dollar, and the Mexican peso which lost 17%. But the Chinese are not used to getting whacked by a depreciating currency. It spooks them. So the promise of convenient capital flight along with the lure of bitcoin’s semi-anonymity and the hope of quickly doubling their money have just been too much to resist. The rest of the world lost interest in bitcoin after it transferred a lot of money to those that got in early and got out in time from the latecomers that ended up holding the bag when it began to crash in late 2013. It went from over $1,100 to a range of around $250 in 2015. But recently, the Chinese have picked up the baton and in an insane frenzy drove it to $1,140 all over again.

And just in time, bitcoin crashed again. As of Wednesday evening, as I’m writing this, it plunged 14.5% to $772, just in one day. In the five days since its peak of $1,140 on January 6, it has crashed 32% against the dollar. What a crazy spike! In terms of yuan, it’s even worse: It plummeted 19% against the yuan on Wednesday and 41% over those five misbegotten days! No one is going to bail out these folks that got in late and are losing a ton of money on their bitcoin bets, or those that tried to catch that knife and got their fingers sliced off. On the contrary. Learn your lesson – that’s what Chinese authorities seem to say..

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6 arrests now?!

VW Officials Destroyed Files, E-Mails as Diesel Scheme Unraveled (BBG)

Volkswagen’s nearly decade-old plot to cheat U.S. emissions tests – all while marketing its diesel cars as environmentally friendly – was quickly unraveling by 2015. A campaign to mislead regulators was failing so badly that top executives signed off on a script for employees to use when questioned. It didn’t work. The next day, Aug. 19, 2015, an employee went off script and told regulators for the first time that its diesel cars were designed to behave differently during emissions tests, according to court documents. In the home office in Germany, some executives and engineers began deleting documents related to U.S. emissions and the company’s head of engine development told an assistant to dispose of a hard drive containing e-mails from him and other supervisors.

All this was laid out by U.S. prosecutors on Wednesday as they announced charges against five officials they said had been key to developing and carrying out the scheme. As part of the carmaker’s settlement concluding criminal and civil probes in the U.S., VW agreed to plead guilty to conspiracy to defraud the government and consumers and obstruction of justice, and to pay $4.3 billion in penalties. Prosecutors continue to look into the roles individuals played and the investigation is still open, U.S. Attorney General Loretta Lynch said at a press conference Wednesday.

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“..citing danger to life and national security..” Does this imply it wasn’t Modi who took the decision? Whose life is at risk?

India Central Bank Won’t Share Details Of Modi Cash Ban, Mystery Deepens (BBG)

India’s central bank refused to share specific details of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ban on high-value banknotes citing danger to life and national security, as the mystery deepens over who took the unprecedented decision. The Reserve Bank of India recommended the move, which was accepted by the cabinet and announced by Modi on Nov. 8, Power Minister Piyush Goyal told parliament in November. The RBI board approved the ban three hours before Modi’s speech and hadn’t discussed the matter before, a slew of responses to Bloomberg News’s Right to Information requests show. However, the RBI told a lawmakers’ panel this week that the government had “advised” the monetary authority to “consider” the ban a day before the RBI board made its recommendation. The government then “considered the recommendations” and decided to withdraw the notes, culminating in Modi’s address that blindsided the nation.

The cloak of secrecy that has shrouded the currency ban decision is likely to bolster the view that authorities, both on Mint Street and in New Delhi, were not prepared for such a decision and the way it was announced. It risks undermining perceptions of the central bank’s independence and raises questions about Modi’s decision-making style and his communication with the RBI. More clarity may emerge when RBI Governor Urjit Patel deposes before a parliamentary committee on Jan. 20. Details are essential to help assess the success of the shock move as well as gauge the impact of the decision “It is very perplexing that the RBI doesn’t answer questions about how the decision was arrived at,” said Shilan Shah, Singapore-based India Economist at Capital Economics. “There are concerns that in the whole process the RBI has been sidelined by the government and that raises questions about its independence,” he said, adding that authorities have not been transparent.

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They have horses and barns in Greece too. Now the worst cold seems to pass, here’s the cavalry.

Greece Sends Navy Ship To Lesbos To House Freezing Refugees (AP)

Greece’s navy has sent a tank landing ship to the island of Lesvos to house refugees and migrants during a cold snap that has triggered public health warnings. The vessel has docked and is due to provide accommodation for about 500 migrants. A medical association on Lesvos said Tuesday that conditions at the main camp there were “inhuman” with migrants in tents exposed to freezing temperatures. Schools have been closed on Lesvos because of the bad weather, as a state of emergency was expanded to other areas in northern Greece, where snow has blocked roads and caused power and water outages.

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This country is not prepared for any kind of snow. Saw footage of Evia island, which had 10 feet. Luckily, no refugees there.

Weather Wreaks Havoc In Northern Greece (Kath.)

Transport Minister Christos Spirtzis has ordered an administrative investigation into why hundreds of passengers remained trapped in trains in northern Greece on Wednesday in the freezing weather. Two trains carrying around 600 passengers came to a halt at Thermes and Larissa in central Greece while traveling from Thessaloniki to Athens because of icy conditions, while another Intercity train stopped in Tithorea and Larissa’s suburban railway ran into mechanical problems in Platy Imathias. Rail management company Trainose said on Wednesday that the problems were due to heavy snowfall in northern and central Greece and announced that it will be cancelling several services between Athens and Thessaloniki, as well as local services in the area, on Thursday.

Heavy snowfall has also caused problems with public transport in the northern port city of Thessaloniki, where bus company OASTH said that 11 neighborhoods are too snowed in to allow service. It also said that around 50 buses have been fitted with snow chains so they can navigate icy streets along their routes. Meanwhile on Thursday morning, fog and low-lying clouds led to flight cancellations and delays at Thessaloniki’s Makedonia airport, while freezing temperatures caused problems in the city’s natural gas and electricity network, leaving thousands of residents without heat or power as temperatures dropped to as low as -14 Celsius.

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Look, if nobody else helps out, people find ways. But it’s still wholly unnecessary suffering. Konstantinos and his crew have scoured the streets of Athens with tea and bread and blankets.

Refugees In Greece Defy Extreme Cold To Help The Homeless (AJ)

Temperatures in northern Greece have fallen to -10. Refugees living in camps have been collecting spare food and donating it to those sleeping on the streets – including homeless Greek families.

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Jul 022016
 
 July 2, 2016  Posted by at 8:18 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  2 Responses »


Walker Evans Vicksburg, Mississippi. “Vicksburg Negroes and shop front.” 1936

Everyone’s a Winner in Brexit Aftermath as Doves Rescue Market (BBG)
The European Union Is ‘Doomed To Fail’ : Taleb (CNBC)
Hungary’s Migrant Referendum Shows Europe’s Post-Brexit Challenge (R.)
Kyle Bass Says China’s Corporate Bond Market Is ‘Freezing Up’ (BBG)
QE Only Works When You’re The Only Country Doing It: Kyle Bass (ZH)
Bad-Loan Ultimatum in India Sees Default Risk Climb Most in Asia (BBG)
World Biggest Pension Fund Seen Losing $43 Billion Last Quarter (BBG)
We May Have Reached Peak Pensioner (G.)
Hacked Emails Reveal US NATO General Plotting Against Obama (Intercept)
Australia Accused Of Torturing, Waterboarding Refugees (Ind.)

 

 

Bad news is good news again. No more uncertainty.

Everyone’s a Winner in Brexit Aftermath as Doves Rescue Market (BBG)

One week after Brexit, the lesson investors are taking away is that there’s no problem central banks can’t fix. Just days after the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union roiled financial markets around the world, stocks and bonds surged in tandem this week as policy makers once again rode to the rescue, dropping hints of further stimulus and suggesting they’ll keep interest rates lower for longer. Traditionally, what’s good for one asset class has not been good for the other, and stocks and bonds more often move in opposite directions on the same information. Yet with unprecedented monetary easing showing no signs of slowing, that relationship continues to break down.

With almost $12 trillion of government bonds globally paying less than zero, a rush into Treasuries Friday pushed yields to record lows, even as encouraging economic data helped propel U.S. stocks toward all-time highs. “This may be the new normal,” said Aaron Kohli, a fixed-income strategist in New York at BMO Capital Markets, one of 23 primary dealers that trade with Fed. “If you flood the markets with liquidity, and you have the anticipation that the central banks are going to be dovish — either adding to quantitative easing or becoming less hawkish, as the case may be for the U.S. Fed — any assets that aren’t impaired or encumbered are going to do very well.”

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“This is 2016. They are still thinking 1950 economics..”

The European Union Is ‘Doomed To Fail’ : Taleb (CNBC)

The European Union is doomed to fail, “Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb said Thursday. He told CNBC’s “Power Lunch” the EU has become a “metastatic and rather incompetent bureaucracy” that is too intrusive. “The way they’ve been building it top down from Brussels is doomed to fail. This is 2016. They are still thinking 1950 economics,” said Taleb, who is also the author of “Antifragile” and is an advisor to Universa Investments. Taleb has warned about an EU breakup for some time, calling it a horrible, stupid project back in 2012. In fact, the U.K.’s vote to exit the EU last week didn’t turn out to be the catastrophe that was expected, he said. While Brexit fears initially rattled global markets, stocks have been climbing back up over the last few days.

While he’s against the current bureaucracy in place in the Europe, he still believes countries can work together, forming free trade agreements and joint military and economic policies. He envisions an Anglo-Saxon economic zone that encompasses the U.S., Ireland, Scotland and Britain. Taleb also doesn’t see Brexit as an isolated event. “People just realize that these elites don’t know what they’re talking about. It’s nice to have elites..you don’t want them to tell you what to do,” he said. “So they are tired of that and it’s a rebellion.” “You have waves and of course we have a wave and I think that .. it’s spreading.” That can be seen in the popularity of Donald Trump, he added. “He’s a brilliant salesperson. He knows how to sell you real estate.. He knows what people want. And he detected exactly that point. And he’s delivering but through trial and error.

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Note: On July 1, Slovakia took over from Holland as chair of the EU. Slovakia is very much opposed to the migrant quota plans.

And Orban is a dick, but he poses a basic question on sovereignty. Which the EU should not just try to sweep under the carpet, because it represents the very core of all the issues. It’s worrisome to me that the right seems to be the only side asking the right questions these days.

Hungary’s Migrant Referendum Shows Europe’s Post-Brexit Challenge (R.)

Emboldened by Britain’s shock vote to quit the EU, Hungary’s leader Viktor Orban is forging ahead with his own referendum on migration, in what European diplomats see as a sign of battles to come with anti-Brussels populists across the continent. The 53-year-old Orban, in power since 2010, has clashed several times with the EU on issues ranging from independence of the courts and the central bank to his handling of the migrant crisis, which has included a fence on Hungary’s southern border. His next clash pits him against an EU Commission plan to resettle refugees across member states based on quotas, which Orban sees as an act of out-of-touch Brussels bureaucrats usurping national authority.

“We need to fight to prove to people that it is possible to form an EU migration policy that is in line with the Hungarian national interest,” Orban said days after the Brexit vote. “This is going to be a long struggle for which I will need a strong mandate, which cannot be ensured without a referendum,” said Orban, who is in favor of remaining in the EU but wants more powers for member states. Orban has enlisted allies, such as neighboring Slovakia, which also opposes the quotas and this week joined a chorus of eastern EU states calling for the powers of the EU Commission to be reined in after Britain’s vote to leave.

“We have a big problem with the proposed reform of the Dublin system,” Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said. “We think it’s stupid, because this is exactly what will keep dividing Europe if (countries) will be asked to pay €250,000 for each migrant they refuse to take.” [..] Orban has said the migration crisis could drive more countries out of the EU. His government will ask Hungarians: “Do you agree that the European Union should be able to prescribe the mandatory settlement of non-Hungarian citizens in Hungary without the consent of parliament?”

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“..the largest macro imbalance in world history..” People who’ve been reading me for a while will know I fully agree with Bass. Except perhaps for his optimism about China as a buying opportunity. You must take into account, in my view, the inevitable massive losses for Chinese citizens, and their potential reaction to them.

Kyle Bass Says China’s Corporate Bond Market Is ‘Freezing Up’ (BBG)

Kyle Bass, the hedge-fund manager who’s wagering on a devaluation in China, said the country’s $3 trillion corporate bond market is “freezing up” amid rising defaults and canceled debt sales. “We’re starting to see the beginning of the Chinese machine literally break down,” Bass, the founder Hayman Capital Management, said in an interview on Real Vision. China’s corporate bond market contracted by a record in May as tepid economic growth and a raft of missed payments spooked investors. Seventeen publicly-traded Chinese bonds have defaulted so far this year, up from six in 2015, and at least 188 firms have scrapped or delayed debt sales since the end of March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Bass, who rose to fame after prescient bets against U.S. subprime mortgages, has so far had less success with his China wagers, saying they’ve contributed to his “terrible” performance over the past two years. While his corporate bond warning follows signs of market stress, there’s no evidence yet of a collapse. Yields on junk-rated Chinese debt fell the most this year in June, while companies were able to sell 1.85 trillion yuan ($278 billion) of onshore notes in the second quarter. Defaults have ramifications beyond the corporate debt market, according to Bass. It also threatens to undermine the $3.5 trillion market for wealth management products, which raise money from Chinese individuals to invest in bonds, stocks and derivatives, he said.

The products receive less regulatory oversight than banks and often have mismatches between their maturities and underlying assets. Bass said in February that China’s lenders may suffer losses more than four times those at American banks during the 2008 credit crisis. He also predicted the yuan will fall in excess of 30%. In the Real Vision interview, Bass reiterated that China’s lending binge in recent years has created “the largest macro imbalance in world history.” He expects bank losses of $3 trillion to trigger a bailout, with the central bank slashing reserve requirements, cutting the deposit rate to zero and expanding its balance sheet – all of which will weigh on the yuan.

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Great interview with Bass.

QE Only Works When You’re The Only Country Doing It: Kyle Bass (ZH)

Grant : this idea of helicopter money, and the idea of banning cash, and all these things that, when you sit here in the cold like that, you can see exactly why they need to do these things. You watch the narrative unfold in the media, and then the trial balloons get floated. But you’re right, they have to go to helicopter money, they’re really not going to have a choice. And it seems to me that they are going to have to try to ban cash. Because, as you say, the U.S. savings rate has tripled since 2007, and that’s literally the last thing they want or need. So is there any way out for these guys? Because that’s the thesis that I keep checking. I can’t see a way out, absent cold fusion.

Kyle : Look, I had a fascinating out of body experience meeting with one of the world’s top central bankers in a private meeting about three years ago. And he said, “You know Kyle, quantitative easing only works when you’re the only country doing it.” He would never say that publicly. And I’ll protect his name, because it was a private meeting. But it was one of those moments where I…it was one of those epiphanies almost, where it’s something you and I knew, but hearing him say it, call it one of the four top central bankers in the world, it was a jarring experience for me, because when I look around the world today, everyone’s in the same boat. So we’re all trying…we’re attempting through our treasury and our Fed to get the rest of the world to not devalue against us, while we quietly attempt to devalue ourselves against them, and it’s all this…it is the race to the bottom, it is the beggar thy neighbor policies that we all talk about. And I believe that there is no way out.

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Another economic miracle showing rot.

Bad-Loan Ultimatum in India Sees Default Risk Climb Most in Asia (BBG)

Investors are starting to show nerves over the Reserve Bank of India’s ultimatum for state lenders to clean up their rising pile of bad loans this fiscal year. Bank of India’s credit-default swaps jumped 31 basis points in the past month, the most among Asian banks, after it was one of three lenders downgraded by S&P Global Ratings on May 30. Yield premiums on dollar bonds of the Mumbai-based company, Indian Overseas Bank and Syndicate Bank climbed to the highest in at least four months after the action. “It’s one of the most trying times for the public sector banks and how they handle this will be crucial for their future survival,” said Rajesh Mokashi at CARE Ratings. “I see a substantial jump in non-performing loans for most banks for the year to March 31, 2017.”

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, who will hand over the reins to an as-yet-undecided successor in September, has given lenders until March 31 to clean up stressed loans that surged to 11.5% of their assets last fiscal year. The rating downgrades will make it harder to raise capital for India’s state-owned commercial lenders, which issued no dollar bonds this year, versus $895 million in the first half of last year.

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From AAA to stocks. It took only a few years. And there goes your pension.

World Biggest Pension Fund Seen Losing $43 Billion Last Quarter (BBG)

Losses for the world’s biggest pension fund likely deepened in the quarter just ended, extending what may be its worst annual loss since the global financial crisis, brokerage estimates showed. Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund will probably post a 4.4 trillion yen ($43 billion) loss in the April-June quarter, according to calculations by Yohei Iwao, executive director of the institutional equities division at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities. That follows what he estimates was a 5 trillion yen decline in the fiscal year ended March 31, which would amount to the worst performance since fiscal 2009 when the fund lost 9.7 trillion yen.

The calculations come amid criticism the government has put the public’s pension money at risk after the fund known as the whale for the size of its assets increased its equity allocations in 2014. That’s prompted the main opposition party to pledge GPIF will move investments back into safer ones in its manifesto ahead of elections this month. “Looks like the scrutiny on GPIF will continue,” Morgan Stanley MUFG’s Iwao said. GPIF has been hurt after global stock routs in mid-2015 and early this year helped wipe about $7.4 trillion off world equities in the past 12 months. Japan’s Topix index has tumbled 19% in 2016 to be the second-worst performing developed stock market as the yen strengthened, reducing returns from overseas holdings.

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No politician wants to touch this. Not in their timeframe.

We May Have Reached Peak Pensioner (G.)

Since 2004-05 the average income of all pensioners has jumped from £250 a week to £297. For pensioner couples the average income is £444, or £23,000 a year. During the same period, incomes for working people have stagnated or fallen; even today, average net disposable income is below where it was in 2007-08. Two factors have driven pensioner incomes up: first, the “triple lock” for state pensions, which has guaranteed that it rises every year by the highest of price inflation, earnings growth or 2.5%. During the global financial crash the triple lock meant pensioners received income rises even when pay for working people was falling. Income from welfare benefits has increased for pensioners since 1994-95, but fallen for working people.

[..] generous final salary pension schemes are in catastrophic decline, now confined almost entirely to the public sector. In the private sector their replacements will only pay a fraction of the amount enjoyed by the generation before them. While many previously picked up two-thirds of their final salary, today’s workers will be lucky to pick up 25%-30% of their former salary. Today’s well-off pensioners are, literally, a dying breed. This is not an argument to say that today’s pensioners should in any way be stripped of their incomes. There is huge inequality among pensioners themselves.

You know all those stories about pensioners saying their incomes have been destroyed by a decade of super-low interest rates? The truth is that the median weekly income from savings in retirement is just £6 a week. The average, though, is £64 a week. That tells you that a small number of pensioners have a large investment income, but the majority have almost nothing. There is a debate to be had about generational fairness. Britain, like all developed nations, is an ageing country. How do we arrange our national finances so that the elderly are protected, while at the same time the young are not overly burdened paying for it?

The problem is that the reforms suggested so far fall on today’s working generation. For example, the age at which you will qualify for the state pension is rising steeply. That’s an inevitable consequence of improved longevity, but one that will hit people in their late 50s, especially women, hard, not the existing retired. Another widely mooted reform is to slash pension tax relief, but the losers there are again the existing working population. Should better-off pensioners be expected to pay more as well? Maybe. But as we know from the referendum result, the old vote and the young don’t.

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Breedlove is a nasty piece of work. So is NATO.

Hacked Emails Reveal US NATO General Plotting Against Obama (Intercept)

Retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, until recently the supreme commander of NATO forces in Europe, plotted in private to overcome President Barack Obama’s reluctance to escalate military tensions with Russia over the war in Ukraine in 2014, according to apparently hacked emails from Breedlove’s Gmail account that were posted on a new website called DC Leaks. Obama defied political pressure from hawks in Congress and the military to provide lethal assistance to the Ukrainian government, fearing that doing so would increase the bloodshed and provide Russian President Vladimir Putin with the justification for deeper incursions into the country.

Breedlove, during briefings to Congress, notably contradicted the Obama administration regarding the situation in Ukraine, leading to news stories about conflict between the general and Obama. But the leaked emails provide an even more dramatic picture of the intense back-channel lobbying for the Obama administration to begin a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine. In a series of messages in 2014, Breedlove sought meetings with former Secretary of State Colin Powell, asking for advice on how to pressure the Obama administration to take a more aggressive posture towards Russia.

“I may be wrong, … but I do not see this WH really ‘engaged’ by working with Europe/NATO. Frankly I think we are a ‘worry,’ … ie a threat to get the nation drug into a conflict,” Breedlove wrote in an email to Powell, who responded by accepting an invitation to meet and discuss the dilemma. “I seek your counsel on two fronts,” Breedlove continued, “… how to frame this opportunity in a time where all eyes [sic] on ISIL all the time, … and two,… how to work this personally with the POTUS.”

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Unbelievable. Australians themselves need to address their government’s despicable behavior.

Australia Accused Of Torturing, Waterboarding Refugees (Ind.)

[..] in a devastating critique of Australia’s methods, medical ethicists have warned there is “increasing evidence that Australia is engaged in torturing asylum seekers” with refugees imprisoned for more than a year without trial. There are allegations of waterboarding, another method of torture called “zipping” in which people are tied to a bed that is then thrown into the air, sexual assault and exploitation, and child abuse. And the inmates of detention centres created outside of Australia to avoid its laws are held in conditions of secrecy that prevent scrutiny of their treatment while laws prevent doctors speaking out about mistreatment.

Last year, a United Nations report accused Australia of breaking the Convention Against Torture over its treatment of migrants. The then Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, responded that “Australians are sick of being lectured to by the United Nations”, saying their policies had stopped refugee boats from trying to make the perilous sea journey to Australia and “ended the deaths at sea”. In a paper in the Journal of Medical Ethics, the ethicists, Dr John-Paul Sanggaran, of the University of New South Wales, and Professor Deborah Zion, of Victoria University, wrote that there was “increasing evidence that Australia is engaged in torturing asylum seekers”.

“There are allegations of situations, circumstances and actions that also constitute cruel and unusual punishment throughout Australian immigration detention,” they wrote. They pointed to allegations by guards at a detention centre on the island of Nauru “of waterboarding, familiar to most as a torture technique that simulates drowning used by the CIA in places like Guantanamo bay”. “‘Zipping’ is also alleged. It is described as tying an individual to a metal bed frame with cable ties, the bed is then thrown into the air causing injury to the bound individual when the frame crashes to the ground,” they added.

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Mar 062016
 
 March 6, 2016  Posted by at 8:17 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , ,  6 Responses »


Arnold Genthe San Francisco , Chinatown. The street of the gamblers at night 1900

China never had an actual economic model or growth model. It simply printed an obscene amount of money, especially after 2008, and used it to build factories, 30-story see-through apartment blocks and highways into nowhere cities, without giving much if any thought to where this would lead when their formerly rich western customers had less to spend on its ever increasing amount of ever more useless products, or when its workers would stop spending ever more on apartments as investments, or when no more roads and bridges were needed because nowhere was already in plain sight. Or all of the above. It was ‘to infinity and beyond’ from the start, but that’s a line from a kids’ fantasy story, not a 5-year plan or an economic model.

Going into its 10-day, 3,000 delegates National People’s Congress opening on Friday, China was facing -and very much still is- two major and interconnected problems. Both are problems that the country has never faced before -not a minor point to make. The first is a giant debt load, one that could easily be as high as $40 trillion, or 350% of GDP, once one includes the shadow banking system (watch the shadows!). The second is the Communist Party’s -economic- credibility.

The debt problem is impossible to solve without very far-reaching restructurings of both the debt itself and of the entire Chinese economy. There appears to be a problem within the problem, however: the Party neither looks prepared to truly tackle the debt nor does it seem to know how.

As for the credibility issue, the very fact that a 5-year plan will be unveiled is the perfect in-a-nutshell illustration of what’s ailing Beijing. Not only does it hark back to communist days of old, not exactly a confidence booster, but trying to look 5 years ahead in today’s global economy is in itself not credible. It forces the Party to make statements nobody in their right mind will believe. And to compound the issue, that is something the leadership doesn’t really seem to take seriously. President Xi Jinping, more than anything else, looks like a man in the tradition of ‘what I say is true because I say so”.

That may have worked for a long time inside the country, but the desire to be part of the global economy means the ‘because I say so’ attitude is now being questioned by people Xi can neither bully nor bend into submission. Something he doesn’t seem to have clued into yet. Surrounded as he will be over these ten days by people who’ll say Yes at any appropriate and inappropriate instance, and laugh at anything he says that might be construed as a joke, Xi won’t come out any the wiser. He’d probably be better off spending those days with someone like Kyle Bass, but he’s not doing that.

Everybody, including most NPC delegates, knows that China’s grossly overleveraged, overproducing and overcapacitated economy needs another round of mass layoffs. Some initial numbers relating to job losses have been ‘leaked’ prior to the Congress. First, it was 1.8 million jobs cut in the coal and steel sectors, and a few days later that became 6 million. But that can only possibly be just a start.

It’s all in the numbers. China has something in the order of a billion workers, give or take 100 million or so. Even with the largest mass migration in human history, in which 100s of millions moved from the countryside to the cities, there are still an estimated 300 million people working in agriculture. That’s the entire US population. It’s also 30% of the Chinese workforce. In the US just 2 or 3% work in farming.

But that still leaves 700 million Chinese in other jobs. Many of these jobs were ‘invented’ in the past 20 years, as China’s ‘miracle growth’ transformed it first into the world’s no. 1 trinket producer, then into a kind of powerhouse that built highways to nowhere cities, and today a powerhouse with a fast plummeting global consumer base.

Many millions of Chinese workers produce things that can’t be sold. This is by no means confined to just coal and steel. The sharply dropping Chinese import and export numbers, as well as the purchasing indices, tell a bleak story. It’s evident that China must re-invent itself. And while that may be exactly what it claims it’s doing, the -alleged- transition to a service- and/or consumer economy may sound good, but its practical success is far from guaranteed.

Transforming a factory worker into a service sector employee is not a matter of flicking a switch. Repeating this 10 million times over, or 20 or 30 million, is a nightmare in an economy that is seeing its growth rates plummet while at the same time needing to deleverage its debt levels.

What are all these people going to do that produces actual economic value? And what will be the character of the companies they produce this value at? China is still dominated by state-owned enterprises, with workers relying on the faith that Beijing will always make everything right that goes wrong.

Losing that faith may have far-reaching consequences. At the same time, China cannot get the international economic status it so desperately seeks if so many de facto work for the government.

Though most tend to forget this, China was in a similar situation not so long ago:

In the late 1990s, China drastically restructured its state-owned enterprises, privatizing some and shutting down others. The result: from 1995 to 2002, over 40 million jobs in the state sector were cut, along with nearly 30 million jobs lost in the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors.

Although many of these workers were able to pick up jobs in the newly-growing private sector, the societal and cultural shift entailed in the restricting should not be underestimated. Prior to that wave of reforms, state sector employees (the vast majority of China’s workforce) enjoyed the benefits of an “iron rice bowl,” absolute job security along with social benefits (such as healthcare and pensions) provided by the state.

70 million – unproductive- jobs cut in 7 years. An average 10 million per year. A problem the country ‘solved’ by throwing tens of trillions (in US dollars) into overleveraged overproduction at exports-driven manufacturing enterprises. And by moving hundreds of millions of people into the cities that housed the enterprises.

15 years later, many of these newly created jobs have in their turn become unproductive. And the country may have to start the same process all over again. With probably tens of millions more jobs to replace. Question is, how will it fare this time around? Will people accept it as obediently as 15 years ago?

The reforms of the 1990s resulted in massive lay-offs. Overnight, tens of millions of workers lost their “iron rice bowls.” There were people who didn’t want to accept it, even those who actively resisted, but the government ruled with an iron fist and eventually the reforms went through. Even today, some of these people have grown old on the edge of poverty. On a certain level, we sacrificed them in exchange for huge reforms to the economic system.

But before wondering about civil obedience, let’s ask again: what are all these people going to do that produces actual economic value? Service economy? Consumer economy? There is no move available this time into another giant and overleveraged export industry. They’re at the end of the -debt- line.

Those people that had some money have lost a lot -and will lose much more- in equities and housing markets. Moreover, the government’s attempts to make them feel more secure about their old age would take decades to convince the people. So those who have something to save will do just that. So.. what consumer economy?

Service economy? Much of that in China is in financial services. Which has no future. So what else is there? How about the US model of burger flippers? That looks like a winner…

See, here’s a depiction of Chinese debt:

And here’s what they plan to do about it:

It looks like subprime derivatives on steroids: China hopes to bundle together billions of dollars worth of non-performing loans and eventually sell them to global investors Such a massive securitisation programme would represent the latest tactic in China’s campaign to lift one of the biggest shadows cast over its slowing economy -a debt pile that is as big as 230% of GDP. It would whittle back debts at Chinese banks and move some of the risk outside the domestic financial system.

According to official figures, such debts at the banks have reached Rmb1.27tn ($194bn), while analysts estimate the real number is likely to be many times higher. Chinese media has reported that the regulator has granted a total of Rmb50bn for the first wave of products. Demand for the scheme, however, is expected to be significantly more modest than supply. “How many global investors have been interested in the traditional [bad debt in China]?” asked one Hong Kong-based investor with experience buying distressed debt in Asia. “Not many.. is a more complicated version of this going to change that soon? No.”

This’ll be great, as great as the western approach to drowning in debt. Mind you, the Chinese haven’t even started talking about ‘recovery’ like we have, they’re still thinking -or propagandizing- that they’re on an ever upward trail. Well, they’re not. One of the early notes coming out of the People’s Congress was this: “China Says Will Keep Yuan Basically Stable Against Basket Of Currencies ..”

That’s not happening. They know it, we know it, and Kyle Bass knows it. Perhaps once the Congress is over, they’ll come clean? Hard to say. What’s certain is that global markets WILL force a substantial re-adjustment of the yuan, and there’s nothing Xi or the entire Communist Party can do to prevent it. And then, after a 30% readjustment, take another look at that dollar-denominated debt!

And they’ll have to cut many millions of jobs, and try to ‘pacify’ the newly unemployed, and deleverage the insane debt levels they’ve created, and find a way to explain to their people where it all went so wrong.

China no longer lives in a kids’ fantasy Toy Story.