Aug 072021
 
 August 7, 2021  Posted by at 9:06 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  93 Responses »


René Magritte The human condition 1935

 

Fauci: ‘Flood’ Of Covid-19 Vaccine Mandates After Full FDA Approval (USAT)
Covid19 Vaccine Efficacy & Effectiveness – The Elephant (Not) In The Room (L.)
Leaky Blood Vessels: An Unknown Danger of COVID-19 Vaccination (D4CE)
Early Signs Covid-19 Vaccines May Not Stop Delta Transmission (R.)
In England, Hundreds Of Vaccinated People Hospitalised With Delta (AlJ)
Greater Antibody Response In Recovered COVID Patients Than Vaccinated (Fed.)
Swedish Professor Says 5 Shots of COVID Vaccine May be Necessary (SN)
CDC Director Makes Case Vaccination Passports are Futile (CTH)
White House: No More Lockdowns Of Schools Or Economy Despite Covid Rise (JTN)
UK Draws Up Contingency Plans For ‘Firebreak’ Covid Lockdowns (iN)
Australia’s ‘Covid Zero’ Days May Be Numbered (ST)
Indiana University Students Appeal Vaccine Mandate To US Supreme Court (JTN)
US Last In Health Care Among Richest Countries Despite Spending Most (Hill)
Dems’ Crusade Against Trump Does Real Harm To Presidency, Constitution (Fox)

 

 

 

 

Yeadon

 

 

 

 

They’re planning the approval in early September. That will be the last of the FDA’s credibility.

“This is a dystopian world we’re living in,” he said. The public is awash in lies and misinformation about COVID-19 and the vaccines, “they are being misled.”

“Americans, he hopes, will say, “I’m not going to take any of this. I’m seeing everybody around me get sick and dying. Let me just go ahead and get vaccinated.'”

Fauci: ‘Flood’ Of Covid-19 Vaccine Mandates After Full FDA Approval (USAT)

As soon as the Food and Drug Administration issues a full approval for a COVID-19 vaccine, there will be “a flood” of vaccine mandates at businesses and schools across the nation, Dr. Anthony Fauci told USA TODAY’s editorial board on Friday. Mandates aren’t going to happen at the federal level, but vaccine approval will embolden many groups, he predicted. “Organizations, enterprises, universities, colleges that have been reluctant to mandate at the local level will feel much more confident,” he said. “They can say, ‘If you want to come to this college or this university, you’ve got to get vaccinated. If you want to work in this plant, you have to get vaccinated. If you want to work in this enterprise, you’ve got to get vaccinated. If you want to work in this hospital, you’ve got to get vaccinated.'”

Fauci doesn’t see more lockdowns in the nation’s future. They were issued early in the pandemic to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed, known as “flattening the curve.” “The rationale for shutting down was that the hospital system would not be able to handle the surge of cases because everybody was getting sick,” he said. With upwards of 70% of adults having had at least one dose of vaccine, the epidemic has shifted to one of the unvaccinated, he said. “When you walk into a hospital, what you’re going to see is a lot of young people, some of whom are seriously ill, but you’re not seeing an overwhelming outstripping of the capability of the hospitals throughout the country,” he said. While he’s attacked online and in conservative media every day, Fauci said he worries less about himself than for the nation as a whole.

“This is a dystopian world we’re living in,” he said. The public is awash in lies and misinformation about COVID-19 and the vaccines, “they are being misled.” With COVID-19 cases rising among the unvaccinated as the highly contagious delta variant spreads, Fauci hopes people’s “better angels” will prevail over the sea of lies on social media. Americans, he hopes, will say, “I’m not going to take any of this. I’m seeing everybody around me get sick and dying. Let me just go ahead and get vaccinated.'”

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Absolute Risk Reduction = 1·3% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford, 1·2% for the Moderna–NIH, 1·2% for the J&J, 0·93% for the Gamaleya, and 0·84% for the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccines.

Covid19 Vaccine Efficacy & Effectiveness – The Elephant (Not) In The Room (L.)

Vaccine efficacy is generally reported as a relative risk reduction (RRR). It uses the relative risk (RR)—ie, the ratio of attack rates with and without a vaccine—which is expressed as 1–RR. Ranking by reported efficacy gives relative risk reductions of 95% for the Pfizer–BioNTech, 94% for the Moderna–NIH, 91% for the Gamaleya, 67% for the J&J, and 67% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford vaccines. However, RRR should be seen against the background risk of being infected and becoming ill with COVID-19, which varies between populations and over time. Although the RRR considers only participants who could benefit from the vaccine, the absolute risk reduction (ARR), which is the difference between attack rates with and without a vaccine, considers the whole population. ARRs tend to be ignored because they give a much less impressive effect size than RRRs: 1·3% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford, 1·2% for the Moderna–NIH, 1·2% for the J&J, 0·93% for the Gamaleya, and 0·84% for the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccines.

ARR is also used to derive an estimate of vaccine effectiveness, which is the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one more case of COVID-19 as 1/ARR. NNVs bring a different perspective: 81 for the Moderna–NIH, 78 for the AstraZeneca–Oxford, 108 for the Gamaleya, 84 for the J&J, and 119 for the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccines. The explanation lies in the combination of vaccine efficacy and different background risks of COVID-19 across studies: 0·9% for the Pfizer–BioNTech, 1% for the Gamaleya, 1·4% for the Moderna–NIH, 1·8% for the J&J, and 1·9% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford vaccines. ARR (and NNV) are sensitive to background risk—the higher the risk, the higher the effectiveness—as exemplified by the analyses of the J&J’s vaccine on centrally confirmed cases compared with all cases:8 both the numerator and denominator change, RRR does not change (66–67%), but the one-third increase in attack rates in the unvaccinated group (from 1·8% to 2·4%) translates in a one-fourth decrease in NNV (from 84 to 64).

There are many lessons to learn from the way studies are conducted and results are presented. With the use of only RRRs, and omitting ARRs, reporting bias is introduced, which affects the interpretation of vaccine efficacy.10 When communicating about vaccine efficacy, especially for public health decisions such as choosing the type of vaccines to purchase and deploy, having a full picture of what the data actually show is important, and ensuring comparisons are based on the combined evidence that puts vaccine trial results in context and not just looking at one summary measure, is also important. Such decisions should be properly informed by detailed understanding of study results, requiring access to full datasets and independent scrutiny and analyses.

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Doctors 4 Covid Ethics: “Are we about to witness the birth of an entirely new world of autoimmune disease?”

Leaky Blood Vessels: An Unknown Danger of COVID-19 Vaccination (D4CE)

Dear colleague: Six months ago, we laid out the reasons for our fears that gene-based vaccines were potentially dangerous [1]. These concerns were based primarily on the expectation that the vaccine would through lymphatic transport soon enter the circulation, where it would be taken up by the endothelial cells. These cells would then start producing the spike protein, which would cause them to be attacked and destroyed by cytotoxic Tlymphocytes. The resulting lesions would give rise to platelet activation and blood clot formation. Since then, clotting abnormalities have indeed taken center stage as propagators of adverse events following vaccinations.

Rapid entry of the vaccine into the bloodstream has been confirmed, as has rapid appearance of expressed spike protein in the bloodstream. Activation of clotting is very common even in those without characteristic or lasting symptoms, but the number of grave adverse events caused by this mechanism—heart attack, stroke, cerebral sinus venous thrombosis, and others—is very high. With this letter, your attention is directed to a second autoimmune pathway that will be triggered simultaneously with the activation of cytotoxic T-lymphocytes. We predict that this pathway will cause damage to and leakiness of blood vessels, with consequences that are far-reaching and profound, particularly upon repeated vaccination. This second autoimmune pathway will render booster shots uniquely dangerous.

1. The proposed mechanism
The first injection will induce the expression of spike protein, and the formation of specific antibodies to it. Re-vaccination will lead to a second round of spike protein production, including in endothelial cells. The antibodies, now already present, will bind to these spikes and will direct attack of the complement system to these cells. Neutrophil granulocytes, too, will be activated by antibodies bound to the endothelial cells. Vascular damage and leakage will ensue.

1.1. Evidence that SARS-CoV-2 spikes provoke complement attack on vessels
Investigations published last year by Jeffrey Laurence and colleagues [2] have establishedthat spike proteins direct complement attack to the inner vessel lining. The authors showed that spike proteins released from the lungs of COVID-19 patients travelled via the circulation to attach at distant sites to the inner vessel lining, i.e. the endothelial cells. Leukocytes and the complement system became activated precisely at those sites, which resulted in damage and leakiness of the vessels. Why this occurred became evident only recently, through several discoveries that we have discussed in a previous letter to physicians [3]. Specifically, the immune system of all individuals is already primed to respond to coronaviruses including SARS-CoV-2, most likely through cross-immunity with widespread respiratory human coronavirus strains. This immunological memory causes antibody production to commence early on during SARS-CoV-2 infection [4–7]. Thus, antibodies will already be there to bind the spike proteins when these become stranded in the vessel linings. This inevitably triggers activation of the complement cascade.

1.2. The effect of booster shots
Repeat injections of gene-based “vaccines” are bound to intensify and reproduce this basic event wherever the newly expressed spike protein appears on the vessel lining. Spike protein-induced complement attack on vessels has been shown to evoke a plethora of skin lesions in COVID-19 patients [8]. These show a striking resemblance to some of those which are now being reported in vaccinated individuals [9]. Complementmediated vascular injury occurring at multiple sites throughout the body will have potentially devastating effects not only on the health of the vaccinated individual, but also on pregnancy and fertility. Complement will also likely potentiate coagulation abnormalities via yet another pathway. Spike protein molecules, known to be released into the bloodstream shortly after vaccination [5] will bind to platelets, marking them as targets for antibody binding. Subsequent attack by complement must be expected to cause platelet destruction, possibly culminating in immune thrombocytopenic purpura. This, too, has been clinically observed after vaccination [10–13]. With regard to long term effects of re-vaccination, what will happen when the “vaccines” seep out of damaged blood vessels and reach the organs of the body? Will gene uptake and spike production then mark each and every cell type for destruction by killer lymphocytes? Are we about to witness the birth of an entirely new world of autoimmune disease?

1.3. Conclusion
It is beyond question that repeated vaccinations carry serious and unprecedented risks as outlined above. While government officials, authorities and vaccine manufacturers may remain ignorant of the medical implications of such findings, any physician in possession of this knowledge cannot administer repeated COVID-19 vaccination in good conscience, nor in good faith. Under no circumstances is it acceptable for a doctor to knowingly inflict harm on a patient. ALL PHYSICIANS ARE HEREWITH CALLED ON TO RECONSIDER THE ETHICAL ISSUES SURROUNDING COVID-19 VACCINATION.

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Not THAT early…

Early Signs Covid-19 Vaccines May Not Stop Delta Transmission (R.)

There are early signs that people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 may be able to transmit the Delta variant of the virus as easily as those who have not, scientists at Public Health England (PHE) said on Friday. The findings chime with those from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which last week raised concerns that vaccinated people infected with Delta could, unlike with other variants, readily transmit it. read more The highly infectious Delta variant has become the dominant coronavirus type globally, sustaining a pandemic that has already killed more than 4.4 million people, including over 130,000 in Britain. Vaccines have been shown to provide good protection against severe disease and death from Delta, especially with two doses, but there is less data on whether vaccinated people can still transmit it to others.

“Some initial findings … indicate that levels of virus in those who become infected with Delta having already been vaccinated may be similar to levels found in unvaccinated people,” PHE said in a statement. “This may have implications for people’s infectiousness, whether they have been vaccinated or not. However, this is early exploratory analysis and further targeted studies are needed to confirm whether this is the case.” PHE said that of confirmed Delta cases that had ended up hospitalised since July 19, 55.1% were unvaccinated, while 34.9% had received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. Nearly 75% of the British population has had two vaccine doses, and PHE said that “as more of the population gets vaccinated, we will see a higher relative percentage of vaccinated people in hospital”.

Separately, PHE said another variant, known as B.1.621, first detected in Colombia, had shown signs of evading the immune response triggered by either COVID-19 vaccines or previous infection. PHE has labelled the variant “under investigation” but has not declared it a “variant of concern” – a designation that can trigger strong policy responses. “There is preliminary laboratory evidence to suggest that vaccination and previous infection may be less effective at preventing infection with (B.1.621),” it said, adding there had been 37 confirmed cases of the variant in England.

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How to redefine “rare”: “..34.9 percent had received two doses..”

In England, Hundreds Of Vaccinated People Hospitalised With Delta (AlJ)

Hundreds of fully vaccinated people in England have been hospitalised with the highly contagious Delta coronavirus variant, scientists said on Friday. In its latest COVID-19 update, Public Health England (PHE) also warned there were early signs that people who have been inoculated may be able to transmit the Delta strain as easily as those who have not received any jabs. From July 19 to August 2, 55.1 percent of the 1,467 people hospitalised with the Delta variant were unvaccinated, PHE said, while 34.9 percent – or 512 people – had received two doses. Dubbed “freedom day”, July 19 was the date England significantly eased lockdown restrictions. All vaccines in use in the United Kingdom – those produced by AstraZeneca, Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech – require recipients to receive two doses to be fully inoculated.


About 75 percent of the UK’s adult population has received two shots to date. “As more of the population gets vaccinated, we will see a higher relative percentage of vaccinated people in hospital,” PHE said. Jenny Harries, chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, said the hospitalisation figures showed “once again how important it is that we all come forward to receive both doses of the vaccine as soon as we are able to do so”. “Vaccination is the best tool we have in keeping ourselves and our loved ones safe from the serious disease risk COVID-19 can pose,” Harries said in a statement. “However, we must also remember that the vaccines do not eliminate all risk: it is still possible to become unwell with COVID-19 and infect others.”

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“..such infection simultaneously assists in offering protection against developing variants.”

Greater Antibody Response In Recovered COVID Patients Than Vaccinated (Fed.)

A new study has found that individuals that have previously contracted COVID-19 show a more potent antibody response than those who were solely vaccinated for the respiratory virus. Conducted by a research team at Rockefeller University in New York, the analysis found “that between a first (prime) and second (booster) shot of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccine, the memory B cells of infection-naïve individuals produced antibodies that evolved increased neutralizing activity against SARS-CoV-2,” but also that “no additional increase in the potency or breadth of this activity was observed thereafter.” Meanwhile, researchers determined that not only do recovered COVID-19 patients possess neutralizing antibodies up to a year after infection, but that such infection simultaneously assists in offering protection against developing variants.

“Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection produces B-cell responses that continue to evolve for at least one year,” the study read. “During that time, memory B cells express increasingly broad and potent antibodies that are resistant to mutations found in variants of concern.” The analysis later goes on to conclude, “Memory antibodies selected over time by natural infection have greater potency and breadth than antibodies elicited by vaccination.” Moreover, the results suggest that “boosting vaccinated individuals with currently available mRNA vaccines would produce a quantitative increase in plasma neutralizing activity but not the qualitative advantage against variants obtained by vaccinating convalescent individuals.”

The study’s findings add to further mounting evidence detailing the level of protection natural immunity offers previously infected COVID-19 patients. Last month, Emory University published an extensive investigation describing the efficiency of long-term immunity against the respiratory virus. Similar discoveries have also been identified in research released by the Cleveland Clinic and the Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, respectively.

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Every next shot is more dangerous.

Swedish Professor Says 5 Shots of COVID Vaccine May be Necessary (SN)

While many people have bragged about being “fully vaccinated” after taking two COVID-19 jabs, a Swedish professor says that as many as five shots may be needed to combat falling immunity. “We don’t know how long the vaccine protects against serious illness and death,” said Karolinska Institute Professor Matti Sällberg. “This means that you pick the safe before the unsafe.” Numerous European countries are planning a 3rd round of COVID “booster shots” in September, and the FDA also indicated that vaccinated individuals will be given another shot in the fall. However, Sällberg suggests this probably won’t be enough and that “recurring shots” will be necessary. “After receiving the second dose, the immune response slowly subsides. Within a year, many may have lost their protection. We do not know yet, but if you get a third dose, it will be activated again,” he said. “Biology says that a fading immune response is not unlikely. Then it’s time for a third, fourth, maybe fifth dose”.


One wonders whether Sällberg holds a conflict of interest given that he is also chairman of the board at vaccine company SVF. Meanwhile, in Israel, a doctor warned that “the effectiveness of the vaccine is waning/fading out” and that “85-90% of the hospitalizations are in fully vaccinated people.” Dr. Kobi Haviv also chillingly pointed out that 95% of the patients in hospital with the most severe symptoms are vaccinated. The meme below is already coming true, and with vaccine passports seemingly on the way, people will have to keep taking recurring vaccinations simply to maintain access to basic lifestyle activities. Whether vaccine side-effects or the hassle of continually having to return for more jabs will put some people off remains to be seen.

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“..both the vaxxed and non-vaxxed person walking into a restaurant, store, group, venue or workplace present the exact same risk to other people there, so how does the presentation of proof of vaccine make any difference?”

CDC Director Makes Case Vaccination Passports are Futile (CTH)

They are just making up narratives now, and the media are not calling them out on it…. The Director of the CDC made an important admission during an interview today on CNN. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky stated the vaccine does not prevent COVID-19 infection, nor does it stop the vaccinated person from transmitting the infection or the delta variant. According to Director Walensky, the only benefit from the vaccine now is presumably that it reduces the severity of symptoms. If a vaccinated and non-vaccinated person have the same capacity to carry, shed and transmit the virus – with or without symptoms – then what difference does a vaccination passport or vaccination ID make? According to the CDC TODAY, both the vaxxed and non-vaxxed person walking into a restaurant, store, group, venue or workplace present the exact same risk to other people there, so how does the presentation of proof of vaccine make any difference?

Additionally, her entire statement makes no sense. There is no evidence that vaccinated asymptomatic carriers are asymptomatic because of the vaccine. There are likely just as many asymptomatic non-vaccinated carriers. The data shows an equally distributed infection rate regardless of vaccination rate, which is simultaneously admitted by Direcor Walensky, which, as an outcome, is an admission that undercuts the entire argument for compulsory vaccines. The reverse is also evident in the data. There are just as many vaxxed carriers who are symptomatic (ie. sick), as there are un-vaxxed carriers who are symptomatic (ie. sick). The percentage of vaxxed and non-vaxxed people hospitalized it identical to the vaxxed/non-vaxxed population around the hospital.

In regional populations with extremely high vaccination rates, the COVID infection rate continues unabated. The percentage of vaccinated people hospitalized is identical to the percentage of people vaccinated in the community. In Gibraltar, 99% of the population vaccinated; COVID infection rate climbs. In Iceland over 75% of population vaccinated; infection rate climbs. Singapore and Israel show the same thing [Data Sets Here]. So what value is the vaccination passport?

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Does Fauci agree?

White House: No More Lockdowns Of Schools Or Economy Despite Covid Rise (JTN)

The Biden White House insisted Friday that American schools and the economy will not shut down again even as COVID-19 infections rise with the new Delta variant. “We are not going back. We are not turning back the clock,” Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters. “This is not March 2020 or even January 2021,” she added. “We’re not going to lock down our economy or our schools because our country’s in a much stronger place than when we took office.” The promise came as some teachers unions aligned with the Democratic Party call for the school year to begin with virtual classes, not in-classroom learning.

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No lockdowns in US, but the UK knows better.

UK Draws Up Contingency Plans For ‘Firebreak’ Covid Lockdowns (iN)

The government has put contingency plans in place for further Covid-19 lockdowns should the NHS be forced back to the brink over winter, i can reveal. While No10 is confident that the vaccine rollout will prevent Covid hospitalisations rising to the levels that led to previous lockdowns, there remains concern that the NHS could be put under intense pressure from issues such as a large resurgence in patients suffering serious flu symptoms. A senior government source has told i that the Prime Minister authorised planning for “firebreak” lockdowns if a number of factors combine to push the NHS to breaking point in the autumn and winter months. There are also said to be concerns at a sharp increase in the number of NHS staff taking sick leave following 18 months fighting on the front line of the pandemic.


“The Government believes it has got to grips with the pandemic following the vaccine rollout,” said the Government advisor. “Barring a new vaccine-beating strain, fears over a rise in infections similar to that seen last autumn are actually outweighed by other issues like an NHS staffing crisis and the likely resurgence in flu infections, and other respiratory diseases. On top of Covid infections these factors could tip the NHS back to the brink and force more lockdowns.” However, the source added the Government is determined to avoid the long lockdowns the UK has endured since the pandemic struck in March 2020. = “Should more lockdowns be necessary, the plan is for them to be short, and preferably during the school holidays in late October and over Christmas. Firebreaks rather than lasting for months at a time.”

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Zero covid is a really stupid idea. So, ideal for Australia.

Australia’s ‘Covid Zero’ Days May Be Numbered (ST)

Australia’s coveted status as a haven from the pandemic could be at an end, with experts warning that a sustained Delta outbreak makes a return to “Covid zero” unlikely. After long stretches with zero local cases – what Australians once jokingly referred to as “doughnut days” – a Sydney outbreak has now grown to 4,610. Record numbers of new cases are being reported each day despite widespread lockdowns. Slowly but surely, some local authorities have shifted to talking about containing the virus rather than beating it. “Given where numbers are, given the experience of Delta overseas, we now have to live with Delta one way or another, and that is pretty obvious,” said New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian. After 18 months of advocating “Covid zero”, that represents a step-change in the country’s approach.

For experts like Emma McBryde, an infectious diseases and statistical modelling expert at James Cook University, the shift in tone is a reflection of the new reality that Delta has brought. “We’re buying time, not getting back to Covid zero,” she told AFP. Like most experts she agrees that Australia’s old virus toolbox – aggressive tracing and testing, snap lockdowns and extensive travel restrictions – while less effective, is still essential to stop exponential virus spread. But, she said: “The goal now should be keeping Covid in check for long enough to get vaccinated.” Dr Tony Blakely, an epidemiologist at the University of Melbourne, echoed those comments, telling public broadcaster ABC that Australia will “probably never” get back to zero transmission.

Barring a few isolated Pacific islands and neighbouring New Zealand, few countries weathered the first 18 months of the coronavirus quite as well as Australia. As the rest of the world hunkered down, got sick and lost loved ones, Australians flocked to bars, restaurants and the beach. Occasionally, the virus jumped from hotel quarantine facilities into the community but aggressive tracing and testing, snap local lockdowns and domestic travel restrictions kept it in check. Then came Delta.

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“An admitted IU student’s right to attend IU cannot be conditioned on the student waiving their rights to bodily integrity and autonomy..”

Indiana University Students Appeal Vaccine Mandate To US Supreme Court (JTN)

First Amendment attorney Jim Bopp filed an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court on Friday on behalf of eight Indiana University students, asking the nation’s top court to stop the university from enforcing its COVID-19 vaccine mandate. “Continuing our fight against this unconstitutional mandate is necessary to guarantee that IU students receive the fair due process they’re owed by a public university,” Bopp said in a statement sent to the media. “An admitted IU student’s right to attend IU cannot be conditioned on the student waiving their rights to bodily integrity and autonomy and to consent to medical treatment like IU has done here. The emergency application for writ of injunction was sent to Associate Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who is assigned to review cases coming out of the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals.

Bopp is requesting she issue a decision by Aug. 13, 10 days before the start of IU’s fall semester Aug. 23. Indiana University announced its COVID-19 vaccine mandate May 21, outlining what it called “strong consequences” for all those who did not comply – students would have their classes canceled and email accounts cut off, the university said, and employees would be fired if they hadn’t gotten the vaccine by the start of the fall semester. The university said exemptions would be “strictly limited to a very narrow set of criteria, including medical exemptions, and documented and significant religious exemptions.” Students were told they needed to get their first dose of the vaccine by July 1 in order to be fully vaccinated by the start of school.

In response to angry calls from parents and a letter signed by the majority of Indiana’s state senators (all Republicans) expressing concerns with the mandate, IU softened its position, and began to grant all religious exemptions. But those students were told they would need to continue to wear masks, would likely be prohibited from attending certain events on campus and would be subjected to frequent testing. Then in mid-July, the university introduced an ethical exemption, allowing students and employees who don’t qualify for a medical exemption and do not want to object on religious grounds to cite personal ethics as a reason for not choosing to get the vaccine. The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Indiana upheld the mandate in July, and a three-judge panel with the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals also sided with IU, saying if IU students didn’t want to get the vaccine, they could go elsewhere. Bopp said his firm filed suit “to preserve students’ rights to bodily integrity and autonomy and the right to consent to medical treatment.”

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The Hill labels it a “Stunning new report”. They must be the only ones who didn’t know yet.

US Last In Health Care Among Richest Countries Despite Spending Most (Hill)

The U.S. health care system ranked last among 11 wealthy countries despite spending the highest percentage of its gross domestic product on health care, according to an analysis by the Commonwealth Fund. Researchers behind the report surveyed tens of thousands of patients and doctors in each country and used data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the World Health Organization (WHO). The report considered 71 performance measures that fell under five categories: access to care, the care process, administrative efficiency, equity and health care outcomes. Countries analyzed in the report include Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the U.S. Norway, the Netherlands and Australia were the top-performing countries overall, with the U.S. coming in dead last.


The U.S. ranked last on access to care, administrative efficiency, equity and health care outcomes despite spending 17 percent of GDP on health care, but came in second on the measures of care process metric. The nation performed well in rates of mammography screening and influenza vaccination for older Americans, as well as the percentage of adults who talked with their physician about nutrition, smoking and alcohol use. Half of lower-income U.S. adults in the report said costs prevented them from receiving care while just more than a quarter of high-income Americans said the same. In comparison, just 12 percent of lower-income residents in the U.K. and 7 percent with higher incomes said costs stopped them from getting care. The U.S. also had the highest infant mortality rate and lowest life expectancy at age 60 compared with other countries.

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Obsessed with power.

Dems’ Crusade Against Trump Does Real Harm To Presidency, Constitution (Fox)

The progressive crusade to bring down Donald Trump by any means necessary continues to damage the Office of the President and the Constitution’s separation of powers. New York prosecutors succeeded in subpoenaing a sitting president — and thereby interfering with his ability to carry out his duties — all for the sake of indicting a single Trump Organization official for under-reporting taxes. Now the Biden administration has inflicted even more damage on the Presidency by waiving Trump’s constitutional right to confidential communications with his closest aides. On January 23, 2021, Senate Judiciary Committee Democrats sent a letter to the Department of Justice demanding production of documents concerning meetings and communications between Trump and high-ranking Justice Department officials regarding election fraud.

House and the Senate committees subsequently followed up with subpoenas for a slew of top former Justice Department officials, such as Acting Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen, assistant attorney general Jeffrey Clark, and U.S. Attorneys in Georgia and New York. In normal times, the Justice Department would immediately reject these demands. Article II of the Constitution specifies, after all, that the President “may require the Opinion” from his principal officers “upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective offices.” Ever since President George Washington refused to share documents with the House about the Jay Treaty, the Executive Branch has asserted the need to keep confidential documents and information that reflect presidential decision-making and deliberation.

In Nixon v. United States, the Supreme Court recognized that the President must enjoy an executive privilege in order to receive the full and frank advice of top officials in order to effectively discharge his constitutional duties. More recently, the D.C. federal court has recognized that “history and legal precedent teach that documents from a former or an incumbent President are presumptively privileged.” The Supreme Court has only recognized an exception when a criminal defendant’s own constitutional right to information conflicts with the President’s right to confidentiality. Then—and only then—has the Court sought to balance the two competing rights by intruding only as necessary on the claim of privilege. Congress’s demands for documents and subpoenas for testimony are more far-reaching and much more destructive to the separation of powers.

While Congress has a right to investigate the events leading to the terrible riot of January 6, it does not have a right to override the constitutional prerogatives of an independent branch of government. If Congress has the right to demand presidential documents and discussions at will, it could just as easily force the Justices of the Supreme Court to reveal their deliberations about the electoral fraud cases brought after the November 3 elections, too. Imagine the howls from Capitol Hill if the Trump Justice Department had issued subpoenas to Nancy Pelosi to obtain internal documents and communications between her and her top legislative advisors about threat assessments provided in the run-up to the January 6 joint meeting of Congress.

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Aug 052021
 


Jacques-Louis David Erasistratus Discovering the Cause of Antiochus’ Disease 1774

 

A Conversation with Dr. Fauci on the Antiviral Program for Pandemics (CSIS)
Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine Linked To Rare Cases Of Eye Inflammation (JPost)
Israel’s Covid Cabinet Contemplating Lockdown In 2 Weeks (JPost)
Chinese Cities Enter Lockdown As Delta Variant Spreads (LS)
Biden Admin To Require All Foreign Travelers To US Be Vaccinated (JTN)
Boston Mayor Bashes NYC For Vaccine Mandate, Compares It To Slavery (JTN)
Biden Admin To Make Vaccination Mandatory For All Active Duty Soldiers (PM)
LA City Council To Consider Requiring Vaccinations To Enter Indoor Spaces (Kusi)
Biden’s ‘Independence From The Virus’: ‘Mission Accomplished’? (JTN)
China’s “Social Credit” System Has Arrived In America (Black)
Biden Pushes China-Style ‘Social Credit’ System (Ron Paul)

 

 

 

 

Joy Reid Cult

 

 

 

 

Think he was talking to someone he knows and let his guard down. Strange things come out.

A Conversation with Dr. Fauci on the Antiviral Program for Pandemics (CSIS)

[..] the approach that we are taking right now is really what we call a two-tiered approach, two fundamental pillars. And the fundamental pillars address what you had alluded to in that the drugs that are already out there, the molnupiravir, the protease inhibitor, the Atea-Roche product, and even others that have not gotten as much visibility but are still somewhere along the early pipeline. That falls into what we are referring to as the developmental pillar of the APP, which is the Antiviral Pandemic Preparedness Program. Those drugs have already gotten a head start with the companies that were involved – you know, Merck and Pfizer and Roche-Atea, and others. We will partner with those pharmaceutical companies to further the advanced development of those products, number one; number two, to be available for other companies, biotech as well as pharma, who might have similar products.

But the one part of the two-pillared approach that I think looks in the long term as part of – and I want to take the opportunity, Steve, to mention this – that this is all part of a comprehensive pandemic preparedness plan that is associated with an even broader and larger pandemic preparedness plan for vaccines, which I know we’ll get a chance to talk about at another time in another setting, namely the prototype pathogen approach for the development of vaccines rapidly against any pathogen of any family. That program, together with this antiviral program, together with an extension of the diagnostics program, is part of the broader comprehensive plan to prepare for pandemics. Just wanted to mention that it isn’t in a vacuum with antivirals.

But let’s get back to the antivirals. You know, because we’ve spoken about this over the years multiple times, Steve, of the extraordinary and, in fact, spectacular success of the targeted antiviral program that we have had with HIV, which we’ll get a chance to talk about a little bit later. But that same approach of developing molecules right from the beginning by using the replication cycle of, in this case, the SARS coronavirus to identify vulnerable targets, that program we’re putting FOAs out right now – funding opportunity announcements – to get people stimulated and interested in doing that from the ground-up development of molecules together and simultaneously with the developmental component of this two-pillared process. So we’re very excited about it.

And I think that we are going to get both, as you said, early wins easy on. Hopefully, one of the candidates that you mentioned will turn out to be as good if not better than the monoclonal antibodies in remdesivir, which are the two approaches that we have right now. And then, hopefully, as we go on into 2022, when we’ll start putting out some money for the discovery component of this two-pillared process, we’re going to start seeing some long-term action and results.

Read more …

Add up all the “rare” and what have you got?

Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine Linked To Rare Cases Of Eye Inflammation (JPost)

The Pfizer coronavirus vaccine may be linked to a form of eye inflammation called uveitis, according to a multicenter Israeli study led by Prof. Zohar Habot-Wilner from Tel Aviv’s Sourasky Medical Center. The research was conducted at Rambam Health Care Campus, Galilee Medical Center, Shaare Zedek Medical Center, Sheba Medical Center in Tel Hashomer, Kaplan Medical Center and Sourasky. It was accepted for publication by the peer-reviewed ophthalmology journal Retina. Habot-Wilner, head of the Uveitis Service at the hospital, found that 21 people (23 eyes) who had received two shots of the Pfizer vaccine developed uveitis within one to 14 days after receiving their first shot or within one day to one month after the second.

Twenty-one people developed anterior uveitis, and two developed Multiple Evanescent White Dot Syndrome (MEWDS). “All the patients in the study met the World Health Organization and Naranjo criteria linking the onset of uveitis to the vaccination,” Habot-Wilner said. “This time frame is consistent with other reports of uveitis following various vaccines.” She said that any patients that had other systemic diseases that could have been related to uveitis were under control before vaccination. In addition, none of the patients had any changes in their systemic treatments for at least six months before getting the shots. Eight of the patients had a prior history of uveitis, but no less than one to 15 years prior.

Specifically, most cases were mild – only three were severe – and all anterior uveitis cases were able to be treated by topical corticosteroids and eye drops for pupil dilation. MEWDS cases, as accepted, were not addressed. “Only one case worsened after receiving the second dose,” according to Habot-Wilner, but she said that with appropriate treatment the disease also resolved for that individual.

Read more …

Clairvoyant.

Israel’s Covid Cabinet Contemplating Lockdown In 2 Weeks (JPost)

he possibility of imposing a lockdown in two weeks’ time was discussed in Israel’s corona cabinet, Channel 13 reported on Wednesday evening. Construction and Housing Minister Ze’ev Elkin is reportedly in favor of the move, as infection models have predicted a lockdown will be necessary in any case by September. It is also reported that officials in the Health Ministry are supportive of a lockdown, in order to motivate Israelis who have not yet received a third vaccine dose to get the jab. Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz stated earlier on Wednesday that a lockdown is “a last resort” and described a fourth lockdown as a “dramatic move with dire consequences.”

Read more …

How often do the WH and Beijing talk about lockdowns?

Chinese Cities Enter Lockdown As Delta Variant Spreads (LS)

Amid China’s worst COVID-19 outbreak since the early days of the pandemic, officials have locked down several cities, ordering residents to stay in their homes until they can be tested or vaccinated, according to news reports. After subduing the initial coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan last year, China maintained strict border controls, as well as quarantining and physical distancing measures to squash new outbreaks before they could spread, The Associated Press (AP) reported. But now, the country is contending with a large outbreak linked to an international airport in Nanjing, located in the eastern province of Jiangsu.

On July 20, nine airport workers tested positive for COVID-19, and in the following two weeks, 360 new domestic cases cropped up across China, Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported. Upon detecting the cases in airport workers, the government immediately launched a testing campaign to screen the 9.2 million residents of Nanjing and instituted strict lockdowns in parts of the city, according to BBC News. However, new COVID-19 cases soon popped up in other provinces; as of now (Aug. 4), the outbreak has reached at least 17 provinces, the AP reported. After analyzing virus samples gathered from infected people, authorities reported that the outbreak is being driven by the highly transmissible delta variant, The Guardian reported.

In the city of Zhuzhou, located in central Hunan province, 1.2 million residents were ordered to remain in their homes starting Monday (Aug. 2) so that a mass testing and vaccination campaign could be organized, according to AFP. Similarly, Zhangjiajie, located in northwest Hunan, locked down residential communities over the weekend, the AP reported. As of Aug. 3, China reported that 1.71 billion vaccine doses have been distributed to its 1.4 billion residents, but it’s unclear exactly how many people are now fully vaccinated, according to the AP. Earlier reports suggest that at least 40% of the population has received two shots; that said, Chinese companies have not shared any real-world data about how their vaccines hold up against the delta variant, the AP noted.

Cases of infection in the country’s capital, Beijing, and the Sichuan, Liaoning and Jiangsu provinces have been traced back to Zhangjiajie through extensive contact tracing, according to The Global Times; and this entire chain of transmission seems to stem from the outbreak at Nanjing Lukou International Airport.

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Except at the southern border.

Biden Admin To Require All Foreign Travelers To US Be Vaccinated (JTN)

The Biden administration is planning to require almost all foreign travelers to the U.S. to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, a White House official reported said on Wednesday. The official, who spoke to the Associated Press on the condition of anonymity, said the requirement would be part of the administration’s easing up on travel restrictions for foreign citizens entering the United States. A timeline has not been determined yet, as working groups within federal agencies are studying how to best resume normal travel. But all foreign travelers, with a few exceptions, will be expected to have received the COVID-19 vaccine to enter the country, according to the AP.


Currently, travel restrictions are still in place, as any residents from outside the U.S. who have visited Brazil, Ireland, the United Kingdom, India, South Africa, China, and the European Schengen area in two weeks prior to traveling to the United States are prevented from entering, the AP reported. All air travelers to the U.S. must provide proof of a negative COVID-19 test taken within the prior three days, regardless of vaccination status, to enter the country.

Read more …

“Here we want to make sure that we are not doing anything that would further create a barrier..”

Boston Mayor Bashes NYC For Vaccine Mandate, Compares It To Slavery (JTN)

Acting Mayor of Boston Kim Janey compared New York City’s COVID-19 vaccination mandate to slavery, the Jim Crow era, and “birtherism,” but noted that she wants people to get the vaccine. Janey responded to New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio’s vaccine mandate for indoor venues, restaurants, and gyms, WCVB reported. “We want to make sure that we are giving every opportunity for folks to get vaccinated. When it comes to what businesses may choose to do, we know that those types of things are difficult to enforce when it comes to vaccine,” she told WCVB.

“There’s a long history in this country of people needing to show their papers,” Janey continued. “During slavery, post-slavery, as recent as you know what immigrant population has to go through here. We heard Trump with the birth certificate nonsense. Here we want to make sure that we are not doing anything that would further create a barrier for residents of Boston or disproportionally impact BIPOC [black, indigenous and people of color] communities.” She added: “Instead, you want to lean in heavily with partnering with community organizations, making sure that everyone has access to the lifesaving vaccine. As it relates to people who want to encourage their workforce to get vaccinated. We certainly support that.”

Janey, the first woman and first African American to serve as Boston’s mayor, received criticism from other mayoral candidates, who she is running against for a full term. “When we are combating a deadly virus & vaccine hesitancy, this kind of rhetoric is dangerous. Showing proof of vaccination is not slavery or birtherism. We are too close to give ground to COVID. Science is science. It’s pretty simple – Vax up and mask up,” City Councilor Andrea Campbell tweeted.

Read more …

Easy pickings.

Biden Admin To Make Vaccination Mandatory For All Active Duty Soldiers (PM)

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is likely to make COVID-19 vaccines mandatory for all active-duty troops this week. This comes after President Joe Biden asked the military to examine how and when to make that happen on July 29. The Pentagon decision on how to proceed could come this week, said several officials. The Pentagon said troops could be among the first to receive mandatory vaccines before upcoming deployments, according to CNN. They previously said they would like to wait for FDA approval despite Biden’s push for greater vaccination levels that could lead to them requesting a presidential waiver. Pending a presidential waiver, troops could receive the vaccine before full approval by the Food and Drug Administration.


A Justice Department memo dated July 6 said that, “because DOD has informed us that it understandably does not want to convey inaccurate or confusing information to service members —that is, telling them that they have the ‘option’ to refuse the COVID-19 vaccine if they effectively lack such an option because of a military order — DOD should seek a presidential waiver before it imposes a vaccination requirement.” Austin consulted with military medical authorities, said a defense official, who added he “[seeks] authorization to make it mandatory.” The decision comes after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported a 64 percent spike in COVID-19 cases nationwide over the past week, reported Fox News. Austin said “we won’t let grass grow under our feet. The President directed us to do something and we’ll get after it.”

Read more …

They, too, have been propagandized for 20 months.

LA City Council To Consider Requiring Vaccinations To Enter Indoor Spaces (Kusi)

Proof of at least partial vaccination against COVID-19 would be required to enter public indoor spaces in the city of Los Angeles, including restaurants, bars, gyms, concert venues, movie theaters and even “retail establishments,” under a proposal introduced Wednesday by City Council President Nury Martinez. “Enough is enough already,” said Martinez, who co-introduced the motion with Councilman Mitch O’Farrell. “Hospital workers are exhausted, moms who have put aside their careers are tired, and our kids cannot afford the loss of another school year. We have three vaccines that work and are readily available, so what’s it going to take?”

The proposal is similar to a policy announced this week in New York City, but it would be more restrictive with the inclusion of retail establishments, potentially limiting access to some basic necessities. The New York policy restricts access only to more entertainment-oriented venues such as indoor restaurants, fitness centers and theaters. According to O’Farrell’s office, the exact businesses that would fall under the restrictions would be determined during the drafting of the ordinance by city attorneys. No determination has yet been made on whether such retail restrictions would extend to grocery stores. The motion, if passed by the City Council, would instruct the city attorney to prepare an ordinance requiring “eligible individuals” to have received at least one dose of the vaccine before entering indoor spaces in the city.

The motion would also instruct the Community Investment for Families Department to report immediately on how to expand the Vax UP L.A. campaign and what resources are needed for a citywide outreach and education program in an effort to expand vaccine coverage. If the motion is approved, the Chief Legislative Analyst would work with other city departments to create an implementation strategy for the requirement and the city attorney would report to council with a course of action for ensuring compliance. “Hard-working Angelenos, their customers and the general public deserve to be safe in public spaces,” O’Farrell said. “The vaccines are our most effective form of protection, and the time to act is now.”

Read more …

“It was a long winter, but the clouds have broken,” declared Jill Biden in Philadelphia on the 4th of July.”

Biden’s ‘Independence From The Virus’: ‘Mission Accomplished’? (JTN)

Little over a month ago, President Joe Biden was looking forward to an American celebration of the 4th of July with “independence from the virus” and, beyond, a “summer of joy and freedom.” No sooner had the administration begun taking bows for having effectively vaccinated its way to the end of the COVID-19 pandemic than reports began multiplying of surging case numbers of the Delta variant. Suddenly, mission accomplished became the mission continues for the Biden administration. “President Biden absolutely declared a victory too soon,” former Baltimore public health commissioner Dr. Leana Wen told Yahoo News recently.

Will the media and political elite hold Biden accountable for a premature end zone dance the way their predecessors a generation ago relentlessly needled President George W. Bush for celebrating “Mission Accomplished” in the Iraq War on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln in May 2003? Or are the renewed COVID-related challenges mere speed bumps on Biden’s road to decisive ultimate victory over the mutating virus? “America is starting to look like American again,” read a White House fact sheet released in mid-June. Despite falling just shy of its goal to get 70% of adults at least partly vaccinated by Independence Day, the president maintained a sunny outlook as thousands of guests gathered on the South Lawn to celebrate the nation’s birthday.

“It was a long winter, but the clouds have broken,” declared Jill Biden in Philadelphia on the 4th of July. “We’re not at the finish let yet, but summer has never felt more full of possibility. And doesn’t the air smell so much sweeter without our masks?” A few short weeks later, the clouds are massing again. Just as the reality of the Iraq War set in after Bush’s famous speech, the new normal of the Delta variant is beginning to take shape in Biden’s America, and rules that were established just weeks ago are already obsolete.

Breakthrough cases of the coronavirus variant are surging — though among the vaccinated those numbers comprise mostly asymptomatic cases and cases with very mild symptoms. Hospitalization and fatality numbers are mere handfuls on the thousand compared to what last spring and summer brought. But mask mandates are also back (for vaxxed and unvaxxed alike) in so-called “substantial” risk COVID-19 spots. The president has made vaccines — or, failing that, regular testing — mandatory for all federal employees and contractors, and NIH Director Francis Collins is urging private sector employers to follow suit.

Read more …

Oh yes.

China’s “Social Credit” System Has Arrived In America (Black)

If you protest lockdowns, you are an extremist putting lives in danger. If you burn down police stations and flip cars in the name of social justice, you are a mostly peaceful protester. And these days, anything from the “Ok” hand gesture to cheese is considered racist. PayPal is not going to keep this research to itself. It intends to be the tip of the social justice warrior’s spear: “The intelligence gathered through this research initiative will be shared broadly across the financial industry and with policymakers and law enforcement.” So the Big Banks will be able to use this same intelligence to blacklist “extremists” peddling “hate speech.” Just last month Wells Fargo closed the accounts of two different conservative activists, without explanation. In 2019, JP Morgan Chase did the same thing.

And the CEO of the alternative social media website Gab had four banks in four weeks ban the company’s account, allegedly because the platform harbors “extremist content.” All of this looks eerily like a back door for a Chinese-style ‘social credit system’ in the United States. Vaccine passports are an obvious example. If certain people have their way, the unvaccinated will be unable to board an airplane and banned from restaurants. Some people even say the unvaccinated should lose their health insurance for making an unpopular personal health decision. During the pandemic, governments across the world set up reporting systems to rat out your neighbors for having family over for the holidays. Bad Citizen! Vermont’s governor even asked students to snitch on their own parents who might have invited extended family over for Thanksgiving 2020.

And now the US government is leading the charge— with the help of the Big Tech companies, of course— by providing new, easy ways to report your ‘radical’ friends and family to the government. What exactly constitutes radical? Anything they don’t want you to do, or believe. This is the problem when just a handful of powerful centralized institutions controlling society. And it is the reason a solid Plan B gives you options to ensure that you’re not entirely reliant on one country’s government, one country’s banking system, or one country’s public health policies. I’m actually an optimist, and I have strong hope that humanity will overcome authoritarianism, as it always has before. But hope is not a course of action. Optimism is not a viable strategy. To truly become more secure from threats like America’s version of the Chinese social credit system, it’s important to give deliberate consideration to Plan B options that will put you in a position of strength.

Read more …

How many Americans would recognize it for what it is? How many Europeans?

Biden Pushes China-Style ‘Social Credit’ System (Ron Paul)

In televised remarks yesterday, President Biden urged private businesses and universities to institute a China-style “social credit” system whereby some individuals are denied basic rights and privileges if they hold “wrong” views on matters such as health and medicine. How far will this go? Also today, NIH Director urges parents to wear masks in front of their children…in the home! And, major European newspaper editor apologized to readers over his publications of hysterical Covid coverage.

Read more …

 

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Sep 302015
 
 September 30, 2015  Posted by at 8:26 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  Comments Off on Debt Rattle September 30 2015


Marjory Collins 3rd shift defense workers, midnight, Baltimore April 1943

Equities On Course For Worst Quarter Since 2011 (FT)
September 30 Is Historically Worst Day Of The Year For Investors (MarketWatch)
‘Cold Fusion’ Is Citi’s Answer to Fading Central Bank Firepower (Bloomberg)
Loss Of Traction Puts Central Bank Mandates Under Scrutiny (Reuters)
Two Very Disturbing Forecasts By A Former Chinese Central Banker (Zero Hedge)
Jim Chanos on China: The Emperor is In His Underwear (Lynn Parramore)
Bundesbank Chief Warns Of Risks From Cheap Money (Reuters)
Investors Pull $40 Billion From Emerging Markets in Current Quarter (WSJ)
Traders Flee Emerging Markets at Fastest Pace Since 2008 (Bloomberg)
IMF Warns Of New Financial Crisis If Interest Rates Rise (Guardian)
World Set For Emerging Market Mass Default, Warns IMF (Telegraph)
Volkswagen Board Member: Staff Acted Criminally (BBC)
Volkswagen Spain Faces Criminal Complaint Over Emissions Tests (Bloomberg)
Volkswagen To Refit Cars Affected By Emissions Scandal (Reuters)
Obama Re-Defines Democracy – A Country that Supports US Policy (Michael Hudson)
Greek Crisis a Tragedy For Education System (BBC)
Frackers Could Soon Face Mass Extinction (Fortune)
Chinese Buyers Holding Back On ‘High-End’ New Zealand Property (NZ Herald)
Berlin To Curb Refugees As Merkel Faces Backlash (FT)
Risking Arrest, Thousands Of Hungarians Offer Help To Refugees (NPR)

Debt deflation.

Equities On Course For Worst Quarter Since 2011 (FT)

US and global equities are heading for their worst quarterly performance since 2011, with investors rattled by China’s economic slowdown, uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy and growing pessimism about corporate earnings. Adding to investors unease, the IMF on Tuesday warned that corporate failures were likely to jump in the developing world, after a borrowing binge in the past decade. With an array of sectors slumping since the start of July, beyond those directly influenced by the rout in commodity prices, the global equity bull run of recent years is now facing a major challenge. The S&P 500 has fallen 8.5%, the biggest decline since the third quarter of 2011. Previously high-flying sectors that led the market earlier this year, notably biotech and healthcare stocks, have fallen appreciably in recent weeks.

“The question now is are investors ready for the first down year since 2011…and the worst year since the “bad days of 2008”, said Howard Silverblatt, analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. In turn, global stock markets are poised for their worst quarterly showing since 2011, shedding more than $10tn in value. The FTSE Emerging Index has tumbled more than 21% this quarter, its worst showing since 2011, and the fifth-worst quarter this millennium. Investors have become increasingly unsettled by signs of weakening global growth and are now questioning the earnings outlook for US companies as the world’s largest economy is preparing to raise rates for the first time in nearly a decade. The US earnings season, which starts in two weeks, is shaping up as pivotal driver of sentiment, Mr Silverblatt said.

Analysts expect quarterly earnings will decline 4.6% year over year in the third quarter, and revenue to decline 3.3%, the third straight quarter of declines for top-line growth, according to the data provider, FactSet. US and global companies have sold record amounts of debt against the backdrop of a blockbuster year for mergers and acquisitions. M&A, equity capital markets, debt capital markets and syndicated lending produced fees of $16.5bn in the third quarter, the lowest total since banks billed $16.3bn in the final three months of 2011 when markets were gripped by the eurozone debt crisis. Under pressure from rising defaults linked to the energy sector, corporate bond prices are signalling broader weakness that reflects the downgrading of global growth prospects, notably for emerging markets.

Read more …

Oh well…

September 30 Is Historically Worst Day Of The Year For Investors (MarketWatch)

September has been tough for stock investors. But if history is any guide, the last day of September may deliver one more blow to already battered markets, according to the financial blog Bespoke. Looking at data as far as 1945, the S&P 500 has posted positive returns just 38% on the last day of September, making it one of the worst trading days of the year, according to Bespoke (as the included table illustrates). Earlier this month, financial blogger Ryan Detrick pointed out that the 38th, 39th and the 40th weeks of the calendar—which fall in September—tend to be the weakest of the year dating back to 1950.

September has marked a particularly rough stretch for the S&P 500 with only the week of Sept. 11 closing higher as China’s slowdown, global economic uncertainties, and lack of clarity on the timing of the Federal Reserve’s expected interest-rate hike have shaken investor confidence. According to FactSet, weekly performance in 2015 for the S&P 500 was among the worst in September. For the week, the benchmark stock-market index is off 2.3% so far, putting it on track for the second-worst week of the year after Aug. 21 when the benchmark tumbled 5.8%. If tomorrow’s trading action follows the historical trend, things could get worse for investors before they get better.

Read more …

Banks rule the world.

‘Cold Fusion’ Is Citi’s Answer to Fading Central Bank Firepower (Bloomberg)

If the world economy enters a downdraft, Steven Englander, global head of G-10 FX strategy at Citigroup, proposes a more revolutionary response, akin to the “helicopter money” once advocated by Milton Friedman. In what he calls “cold fusion,” politicians would cut taxes and boost spending. Central banks would then cover the resulting increase in borrowing by purchasing more bonds as part of a commitment to permanently expand their balance sheets. The easier fiscal policy would be covered by QE Infinity. “Politically it is difficult for central banks to outright endorse monetization of government debt, but faced with another slump and armed with ineffective policy tools, we expect that central banks will quickly give the wink and nod to fiscal measures,” Englander said in a report to clients last week.

The upshot would be greater purchasing power would be injected straight into the economy, increasing activity and inflation. Long-term bond yields would rise, yet short-term yields adjusted for inflation would turn negative. “Increasingly the absence of fiscal policy is viewed as one of the reasons for a less than satisfactory recovery,” said Englander. “With rates at zero, fiscal policy will be needed to offset any negative shock that hits global economies.” Michala Marcussen, head of global economics at Societe Generale SA in London, agrees. “In a risk scenario, we believe policy makers, faced with the abyss, would take the next step into unorthodox policy, namely fiscal expansion,” she said. “Clearly not the risk that bond markets have in mind.”

Read more …

“..relatively slow growth and over-reliance on cheap credit to cope with that funk has “zombified” global economies for years to come..”

Loss Of Traction Puts Central Bank Mandates Under Scrutiny (Reuters)

Growing anxiety that the world’s top central banks have lost control of their mission has intensified scrutiny of their mandates and independence from both political and investment circles. Far from soothing already nervy financial markets, the Fed’s decision not to raise interest rates in September raised more questions than it answered. The turbulent response of equity, commodity and emerging markets marks this as a rare, if not singular instance in recent years of markets reacting so negatively to an ostensibly dovish policy signal from the Fed. Chief among the questions is whether the world’s most influential central bank, along with many of its peers, is trapped at near zero interest rates as the economic cycle crests and inflation flatlines, due to a rapid cooling of China and other emerging economies and a commodity price slump.

The uncomfortable prospect of heading into another economic slowdown with no interest rate ammunition to fight the downturn is at the root of much that investment angst. “The relative paucity of the monetary policy toolkit increases the fragility of the expansion, with risks that an adverse shock could lead businesses and consumers to retrench and thereby transform a mid-cycle slowdown into something significantly worse,” wrote Citi chief economist Willem Buiter. Yet by subsequently insisting a rate rise was still on the cards this year, the Fed simultaneously removed any low-rates balm and confused many as to its ‘reaction function’. Just which of the global pressures that stayed its hand only two weeks ago – weakening China, emerging markets and commodity prices – will disappear again by year end?

And if the rise of the dollar is at least partly behind both those pressures and the below-target U.S. inflation rate, then surely every future push to raise rates will simply strengthen the currency again and re-ignite the same chain reaction. “You can’t run a independent, domestically-focused monetary policy in this environment,” said Salman Ahmed, chief strategist at asset managers Lombard Odier, adding that a major complication is the huge uncertainty internally at the Fed about just how the world’s second biggest economy, China, is actually performing. “What has happened is that central banks have lost control to calibrate monetary policy to only domestic economic data.” The Fed may be in the hot seat, but the Bank of England has a similar dilemma.

The Bank of Japan and ECB differ only in that there’s no domestic pressure yet to tighten policy. But their attempts to avoid deep deflation and reach explicit inflation targets seem to be similarly sideswiped by global rather than domestic developments. And that’s not changing any time soon. In a world that’s wound down very little of its overall indebtedness some seven years after the credit crash was supposed to launch a wave of ‘deleveraging’, relatively slow growth and over-reliance on cheap credit to cope with that funk has “zombified” global economies for years to come, Ahmed added. And in such a low growth world, political pressure to bring central banks into a more centrally-directed policy framework will only increase.

Read more …

“..the failure will have serious consequences on China’s financial stability..”

Two Very Disturbing Forecasts By A Former Chinese Central Banker (Zero Hedge)

Earlier today, Yu Yongding – currently a senior fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing but most notably a member of the PBOC’s Monetary Policy Committee from 2004 to 2006 as well as a member of China’s central planning bureau itself, the Advisory Committee of National Planning – gave a speech before the Peterson Institute, together with a slideshow. Since the topic was China’s debt, economic growth, corporate profitability, and since, inexplicably, it wasn’t pre-cleared by the Chinese department of truth, it was not cheerful. In fact it was downright scary. Among other things, the speech discussed:
• Capital efficiency – low and falling (capital-output ratio rising)
• Corporate profitability – has been falling steadily
• Share of finance via capital market – Very low
• Interest rate on loans – High
• Inflation rate – producer price Index is falling

A key observation was the troubling surge in China’s capital coefficient, first noted here two weeks ago in a presentation by Daiwa which also had a downright apocalyptic outlook on China, and wasn’t ashamed to admit that it expects a China-driven global meltdown, one which “would more than likely send the world economy into a tailspin. Its impact could be the worst the world has ever seen.” The former central banker also discussed the bursting of China’s market bubble. This, he said was created deliberately for two government purposes: 1) To enable debt-ridden corporates to get funds from the equity market, 2) To boost share prices to stimulate demand via wealth effect He admits this shortsighted approach failed and “to save the city, we bombed the city” adding that it brings “authorities’ ability of crisis managing into question.”

He also observes that the devaluation that took place on August 11 was the government’s explicit admission that its attempt to reflate an equity bubble has failed, and it was forced to find an alternative method of stimulating the economy. Of the CNY devaluaton Yu says quite clearly that it was simply to boost the economy: “In the first quarter of 2015 China’s capital account deficit is larger that than that of current account surplus” which is due to i) The Unwinding of Carry trade; ii) The diversification of financial assets by households; iii) Outbound foreign investment; and iv) Capital flight. And now that China has officially unleashed devaluation (which Yu believes should be taken to its logical end and the RMB should float) there are very material risks: “the implication of episode can be more serious than the stock market fiasco, with much large international consequences” and that “the failure will have serious consequences on China’s financial stability”

Read more …

“If you do dumb economic things, whether you’re capitalist, communist, or some hybrid, you ultimately pay the price.”

Jim Chanos on China: The Emperor is In His Underwear (Lynn Parramore)

[..] China is the only industrialized country that knows its annual GDP on Jan. 1 of that year. Because it’s planned. You can truly manufacture your growth. Now, you may end up with lots of white elephants and a banking system with lots of bad loans, and that’s the problem, whether you’re a closed system or an open system or somewhere in between (which is what I believe): a closed system with lots of leakage. At the end of the day, other countries have tried this model and it doesn’t really work that well. The Soviet Union and Japan, to some extent, in the late 80s, followed this model. If you do dumb economic things, whether you’re capitalist, communist, or some hybrid, you ultimately pay the price.

[..] We’re getting inexorably to a tipping point in China. What has made 2015 much different from 2010, other than magnitude (almost everything I saw in 2009-2010 is twice as big today: the banking system, the economy, debt to GDP), is that the veneer of technocratic excellence has been wiped away. Now the West sees that the problems. That was not the case in 2010. I was considered a crank, someone who had never been there, never spoken Mandarin. They said, you don’t know, these people are geniuses! Now I think we’ve begun to see that, no, they make the same policy mistakes that we make. They don’t always get it right.

The other thing that’s changed dramatically, and I think more ominously, is the rise of Xi Jinping, who is a much different leader than the previous two groups of party leaders. Under Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin, China was open for business. As long as you don’t rock the political boat, you can go to Macau, buy your three Ferraris, have fun, make money. This is the new China. Then Xi comes in, and his first speech is a fiery speech in Guangdong Province, where he absolutely rips into the Soviet Union for being soft on Perestroika. He says, what were you guys thinking about? Why didn’t you put the troops on the street the first chance you got? That was his first speech.

One of the next things he did was – I know this sounds silly, but to me it was very telling — he told the auto show models to cover up. Think about that for a second. He truly said, they’re showing too much skin and this is an embarrassment to China. Cover up! He told the kids, go to bed earlier! I began to see that this guy is different. This guy really sees himself as father of China. Some might say that now he sees himself as an emperor. Sure enough, the cult of personality stuff started. He made the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) senior officers take an oath of personal loyalty to him. That’s very important. His nationalism, which was unmistakable and you couldn’t miss it by 2013-14, has also taken on a very anti-Western tone. Now, if there’s a problem with the stock market, it’s Western speculators. If there’s something going on, it’s the West’s fault.

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Weidmann wants everyone to be Germany. But that is no longer such a glorious prospect.

Bundesbank Chief Warns Of Risks From Cheap Money (Reuters)

The dip in oil prices will save German companies and individuals €25 billion this year, the head of the Bundesbank said on Tuesday, as he warned of the perils of keeping the cost of money too low. “The expansionary monetary policy should not go on for longer than is absolutely necessary,” Jens Weidmann told an audience near Frankfurt, saying the economic recovery in the 19-member euro zone was holding steady. The remarks from Weidmann illustrate the continued scepticism in Germany about the need to extend the ECB’s €1 trillion-plus money printing program.

While such opposition cannot prevent extra money printing, it can delay any such move. Weidmann, who also sits on the ECB’s policy-setting Governing Council, argued that cheap money, with borrowing rates at record low in the euro zone, risked that financial markets would ‘overdo it’. He also pointed to the threat that permanently low borrowing costs would keep ‘zombie’ companies afloat that should be out of business. Weidmann also criticized the negative impact of low interest rates on German savers, who he said earned a fraction of a percentage point of interest on their deposits.

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“Companies from developing countries quadrupled their borrowing to well over $18 trillion last year from around $4 trillion in 2004..”

Investors Pull $40 Billion From Emerging Markets in Current Quarter (WSJ)

Foreign capital is gushing out of emerging markets. Global investors are estimated to have yanked $40 billion from emerging-market stocks and bonds during the current quarter, the most for a quarter since the depths of the 2008 global financial crisis, according to the latest data from the Institute of International Finance. The retrenchment reflected growing tensions in some of the world’s once-highflying emerging economies, which are struggling with slower growth, substantial debt and plunging prices for commodities, which many of these economies rely on. In a report published on Tuesday, the IMF warned that emerging markets could brace for a rise in corporate failures as debt-laden firms find it harder to repay their loans and bonds as a result of sputtering growth and weakening currencies.

Companies from developing countries quadrupled their borrowing to well over $18 trillion last year from around $4 trillion in 2004, with Chinese firms accounting for a major share, according to the bank. Thanks to low interest rates in developed countries, many of the borrowings were conducted in hard currencies, such as the dollar and euro. Investor confidence in emerging markets was further shaken in the quarter by an epic stock-market crash in China, as well as Beijing’s botched efforts to prop up share prices. The selloff in emerging markets accelerated and rattled global financial markets after the Chinese central bank’s move to let its currency devalue in August fueled suspicions that China’s underlying economy might be faring worse than expected.

These concerns had a knock-on effect on commodities, driving prices down to levels not seen in six years. As the biggest buyer of many commodities from countries including Brazil, South Africa and Malaysia, China’s woes hurt these countries’ currencies. “Emerging markets are going to be a very difficult place to invest in for the next 12 to 24 months,” said David Spika, global investment strategist at GuideStone Capital, which oversees $10.7 billion in assets. Falling commodity prices hurt many emerging countries’ growth, leading to capital outflows and weakening their currencies, he said.

Many emerging countries rely on outside capital to finance their budget deficits, and the continuous outflow is already forcing some of these countries to devalue their currencies or dip into their foreign-currency reserves to defend their exchange rates. This quarter’s exodus was about evenly divided between equities and bonds, losing $19 billion and $21 billion, respectively, according to the IIF. The $40 billion outflow would rank the current quarter the worst quarter since the fourth quarter of 2008 when emerging markets saw outflows of about $105 billion.

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“It’s the trifecta of slowing investment growth, declining commodity prices and the strong dollar.”

Traders Flee Emerging Markets at Fastest Pace Since 2008 (Bloomberg)

Investors have pulled $40 billion out of developing economies in the third quarter, fleeing emerging markets at the fastest pace since the height of the global financial crisis. The quarterly outflow was the first since 2009 and the biggest since the final three months of 2008, when traders sold $105 billion of assets, according to the Institute of International Finance. The retreat came as data signaled faltering Chinese economic growth, commodity prices slumped and the Federal Reserve moved closer to an increase in the near-zero U.S. interest rates that have supported demand for riskier assets in developing nations. About $19 billion of the selloff was equities, with the remaining $21 billion in debt, the IIF said in a report Tuesday. There were outflows in all three months this quarter.

The MSCI Emerging Markets stocks benchmark has declined 20% in the past three months, on track for the biggest retreat in four years. Local-currency developing-nation bonds have lost 6.6% in dollar terms in the third quarter, according to Bank of America Corp. indexes, the biggest retreat on a quarterly basis since 2011. Currencies from Brazil to South Africa have tumbled, sending a gauge of 20 foreign-exchange rates to a record low. “The reaction we’re seeing is quite severe, but a lot of the damage has already probably taken place,” Brendan Ahern, managing director of Krane Fund Advisors LLC in New York, said by phone. “It’s the trifecta of slowing investment growth, declining commodity prices and the strong dollar.”

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Speaking in forked tongues.

IMF Warns Of New Financial Crisis If Interest Rates Rise (Guardian)

Rising global interest rates could prompt a new credit crunch in emerging markets, as businesses that have ridden the wave of cheap money to load up on debt are pushed into crisis, the International Monetary Fund has said. The debts of non-financial firms in emerging market economies quadrupled, from $4tn in 2004 to well over $18tn in 2014, according to the IMF’s twice-yearly Global Financial Stability Report. This borrowing binge has taken business debt as a share of economic output from less than half, in 2004, to almost 75%. China’s firms have led the spree, but businesses in other countries, including Turkey, Chile and Brazil, have also ramped up their debts — and could prove vulnerable as interest rates rise.

With the US Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates in the coming months, the IMF warns that emerging market governments should ready themselves for an increase in corporate failures, as firms struggle to meet sharply higher borrowing costs. That could create distress among the local banks who have bought much of this new debt, causing them in turn to rein in lending, in a “vicious cycle” reminiscent of the credit crisis of 2008-09. “Shocks to the corporate sector could quickly spill over to the financial sector and generate a vicious cycle as banks curtail lending. Decreased loan supply would then lower aggregate demand and collateral values, further reducing access to finance and thereby economic activity, and in turn, increasing losses to the financial sector,” the IMF warns.

Its economists find that the sharp increase in borrowing has been driven largely by international factors, including the historically low interest rates and quantitative easing unleashed by central banks in the US, Japan and Europe, as they have sought to rekindle growth in the wake of the sub-prime crisis. “Monetary policy has been exceptionally accommodative across major advanced economies. Firms in emerging markets have faced greater incentives and opportunities to increase leverage as a result of the ensuing unusually favourable global financial conditions,” the IMF says.

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A deep dark hole lies right ahead.

World Set For Emerging Market Mass Default, Warns IMF (Telegraph)

The IMF has issued a double warning over higher US interest rates, which it said could trigger a wave of emerging market corporate defaults and panic in financial markets as liquidity evaporates. The IMF said corporate debts in emerging markets ballooned to $18 trillion last year, from $4 trillion in 2004 as companies gorged themselves on cheap debt. It said the quadrupling in debt had been accompanied by weaker balance sheets, making companies more vulnerable to US rate rises. “As advanced economies normalise monetary policy, emerging markets should prepare for an increase in corporate failures,” the IMF said in a pre-released chapter of its latest Financial Stability Report.

It warned that this could create a credit crunch as risks “spill over to the financial sector and generate a vicious cycle as banks curtail lending”. In a double warning, the IMF said market liquidity, or the ease with which investors can quickly buy or sell securities without shifting their price, was “prone to sudden evaporation”, particularly in bond markets, when the Federal Reserve started to raise interest rates. It said a steady growth environment and “extraordinarily accommodative monetary policies” around the world had helped to maintain a “high level” of liquidity. However, it warned that this was not the same as “resilient” liquidity that could support markets in time of stress.

Gaston Gelos, head of the IMF’s global financial stability division, said these factors were “masking liquidity risks” that could trigger violent market swings. “Liquidity is like the oil in an engine, when there’s too little of it, the machine starts stuttering,” he said. The IMF said an “illusion” of abundant liquidity may have encouraged “excessive risk taking” by some investors that could cause market ructions if many investors suddenly rushed to the exit. “Even seemingly plentiful market liquidity can suddenly evaporate and lead to systemic financial disruptions,” the IMF said. “When liquidity drops sharply, prices become less informative and less aligned with fundamentals, and tend to overreact, leading to increased volatility. In extreme conditions, markets can freeze altogether, with systemic repercussions.”

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Politicans and board members should draw their own consequences, not point to others. This guys is both.

Volkswagen Board Member: Staff Acted Criminally (BBC)

Olaf Lies, a Volkswagen board member and economy minister of Lower Saxony has told Newsnight some staff acted criminally over emission cheat tests. He said the people who allowed the deception to happen or who installed the software that allowed certain models to give false emissions readings must take personal responsibility. He also said the board only found out about the problems at the last meeting. About 11 million diesel engine cars are affected by the problem. Mr Lies told the BBC: “Those people who allowed this to happen, or who made the decision to install this software – they acted criminally. They must take personal responsibility.” He said: “We only found out about the problems in the last board meeting, shortly before the media did. I want to be quite open. So we need to find out why the board wasn’t informed earlier about the problems when they were known about over a year ago in the United States.”

He said the company had no idea of the total bill to sort out the engines and cover any legal costs arising: “Huge damage has been done because millions of people have lost their faith in VW. We are surely going to have a lot of people suing for damages. We have to recall lots of cars and it has to happen really fast.” He added that the company was strong and that rebuilding trust – and ensuring the majority of the 600,000 workers at the car giant were not blamed, was its priority. He added his apology to those already made by senior company figures and said: “I’m ashamed that the people in America who bought cars with complete confidence are so disappointed.” VW is working out how to refit the software in the 11 million diesel engines involved in the emissions scandal. Seat is the latest VW brand to reveal it, too, used the emission cheat device.

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Be good to see how different legal systems have different approaches.

Volkswagen Spain Faces Criminal Complaint Over Emissions Tests (Bloomberg)

Volkswagen AG’s three Spanish units and their chairmen are facing a criminal complaint stemming from its rigged emissions tests that accuses them of defrauding consumers and the tax authorities and damaging the environment. Manos Limpias, a public workers’ union that has pursued corruption allegations against high-profile figures in Spain including the king’s sister, filed the private suit with the National Court on Monday. The Spanish state could face a civil liability for failing to adequately supervise the automaker, according to a copy of the lawsuit seen by Bloomberg News. German prosecutors have already started a criminal probe of the car maker that will examine the role of former CEO Martin Winterkorn. Winterkorn resigned on Friday after a tumultuous week in which Europe’s biggest car manufacturer admitted to tampering with some diesel engines to cheat on U.S. emissions tests.

The complaint named Volkswagen Audi SA Chairman James Morys Muir, Volkswagen Navarra SA Chairman Ulbrich Thomas and Seat SA Chairman Francisco Javier Garcia Sanz. Volkswagen and its Seat unit have built more than 500,000 cars in Spain with the 1.6- and 2.0-liter diesel motors subject to the German investigation, Manos Limpias said in the lawsuit. Several models from Volkswagen’s other brands that are under investigation have also been sold to Spanish consumers. In addition, the German company has been claiming subsidies from the Spanish government since at least 2009 as an incentive to produce low emission cars. While Industry Ministry Jose Manuel Soria says Spain will ask Volkswagen to give back the subsidies, the government may also face a civil charges because it ordered Seat’s technical unit to conduct the emissions tests, Manos Limpias said in the document.

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“Volkswagen did not say how the planned refit would make cars with the “cheat” software comply with regulations..”

Volkswagen To Refit Cars Affected By Emissions Scandal (Reuters)

Volkswagen said on Tuesday it will repair up to 11 million vehicles and overhaul its namesake brand following the scandal over its rigging of emissions tests. New CEO Matthias Mueller said the German carmaker would tell customers in the coming days they would need to have diesel vehicles with illegal software refitted, a move which some analysts have said could cost more than $6.5 billion. In Washington, U.S. lawmakers asked the automaker to turn over documents related to the scandal, including records concerning the development of a software program intended to defeat regulatory emissions tests. In separate letters, leading Republicans and Democrats on the House Energy and Commerce Committee requested information from both Volkswagen and the EPA as part of an investigation into the controversy.

Europe’s biggest carmaker has admitted cheating in diesel emissions tests in the US and Germany’s transport minister says it also manipulated them in Europe, where Volkswagen sells about 40% of its vehicles. The company is under huge pressure to address a crisis that has wiped more than a third off its market value, sent shock waves through the global car market and could harm Germany’s economy. “We are facing a long trudge and a lot of hard work,” Mueller told a closed-door gathering of about 1,000 top managers at Volkswagen’s Wolfsburg headquarters late on Monday. “We will only be able to make progress in steps and there will be setbacks,” he said. Volkswagen did not say how the planned refit would make cars with the “cheat” software comply with regulations, or how this might affect vehicles’ mileage or efficiency, which are important considerations for customers. It said it would submit the details to Germany’s KBA watchdog next month.

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Exactly what I was thinking listening to Obama. “We bring them democracy” has become a ridiculous line.

Obama Re-Defines Democracy – A Country that Supports US Policy (Michael Hudson)

In his Orwellian September 28, 2015 speech to the United Nations, President Obama said that if democracy had existed in Syria, therenever would have been a revolt against Assad. By that, he meant ISIL. Wherethere is democracy, he said, there is no violence of revolution. This was his threat to promote revolution, coups and violence against any country not deemed a “democracy.” In making this hardly veiled threat, he redefined the word in the international political vocabulary. Democracy is the CIA’s overthrow of Mossedegh in Iran to install the Shah. Democracy is the overthrow of Afghanistan’s secular government by the Taliban against Russia. Democracy is the Ukrainian coup behind Yats and Poroshenko. Democracy is Pinochet. It is “our bastards,” as Lyndon Johnson said with regard to the Latin American dictators installed by U.S. foreign policy.

A century ago the word “democracy” referred to a nation whose policies were formed by elected representatives. Ever since ancient Athens, democracy was contrasted to oligarchy and aristocracy. But since the Cold War and its aftermath, that is not how U.S. politicians have used the term. When an American president uses the word “democracy,” he means a pro-American country following U.S. neoliberal policies. No matter if a country is a military dictatorship or the government was brought in by a coup (euphemized as a Color Revolution) as in Georgia or Ukraine. A “democratic” government has been re-defined simply as one supporting the Washington Consensus, NATO and the IMF. It is a government that shifts policy-making out of the hands of elected representatives to an “independent” central bank, whose policies are dictated by the oligarchy centered in Wall Street, the City of London and Frankfurt.

Given this American re-definition of the political vocabulary, when President Obama says that such countries will not suffer coups, violent revolution or terrorism, he means that countries safely within the U.S. diplomatic orbit will be free of destabilization sponsored by the U.S. State Department, Defense Department and Treasury. Countries whose voters democratically elect a government or regime that acts independently (or even that simply seeks the power to act independently of U.S. directives) will be destabilized, Syria style, Ukraine style or Chile style under General Pinochet. As Henry Kissinger said, just because a country votes in communists doesn’t mean that we have to accept it. It is the style of “color revolutions” sponsored by the National Endowment for Democracy.

In his United Nations reply, Russian President Putin warned against the “export of democratic revolution,” meaning by the United States in support of its local factotums. ISIL is armed with U.S. weapons and its soldiers were trained by U.S. armed forces. In case there was any doubt, President Obama reiterated before the United Nations that until Syrian President Assad was removed in favor of one more submissive to U.S. oil and military policy, Assad was the major enemy, not ISIL. “It is impossible to tolerate the present situation any longer,” President Putin responded. Likewise in Ukraine. “What I believe is absolutely unacceptable,” he said in his CBS interview on 60 Minutes, “is the resolution of internal political issues in the former USSR Republics, through “color revolutions,” through coup d’états, through unconstitutional removal of power. That is totally unacceptable.”

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Greece had an excellent education system for a very long time. Now that is gone too.

Greek Crisis a Tragedy For Education System (BBC)

When considering the effects of the debt crisis on Greece, most people probably think of long queues outside banks and protests in the streets. A less visible but perhaps further reaching outcome is that Greece’s education system has become one of the most unequal in the developed world. Although education in Greece is free, public schools are suffering from spending cuts imposed as a condition of the bailout agreements. In practice, over the last 30 years it has become increasingly necessary for students to pay for expensive private tuition to pass the famously difficult Panhellenic exams required to get to university. But with unemployment rising and salaries falling, many poor and middle-class families are struggling to pay for this extra tuition.

A World Economic Forum report this month ranked Greece last of 30 advanced economies for education because of the close relationship between students’ performance and their parents’ income. And a professor of law and economics at the University of Athens warns that losing talented students from poor backgrounds is a “national catastrophe” which could hinder Greece’s long-term economic recovery. Greece’s education system was designed around the principle of equality. Article 16 of the constitution guarantees free education at all levels and university admission is decided solely by performance in the nationwide Panhellenic exams. But the low quality of some public education in Greece, and the difficulty of the Panhellenic exams, has led to a parallel education system being set up.

The majority of students in Greece attend private classes called “frontistiria” or one-to-one tuition in evenings and weekends. In 2008, the year before the crisis, families with children in upper secondary education spent more than €950m on these lessons, which represented nearly 20% of these households’ expenditure – more than any other European country. “If a student does not attend frontistirio, he is a dead man for the exams,” said Dimitra Kakampoura, a 22-year-old student who took the Panhellenic exams in 2011.

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“Banks lend to oil exploration companies based on the value of their reserves. But they only audit the value of those reserves every October. Given how much oil prices have tumbled in the past year, many analysts expect banks to greatly reduce in the next month..”

Frackers Could Soon Face Mass Extinction (Fortune)

An analyst says one-third of the companies could be bankrupt by the end of next year. Doomsday may finally be coming to the fracking industry. Despite the big drop in oil prices in the past year, there have been relatively few bankruptcies in the energy industry. That may be about to change. James West, an energy industry analyst at ISI Evercore, says months of low activity have left many of the companies in the hydraulic-fracturing business either insolvent or close to it. He says as many as a third of the fracking companies could go bust by the end of next year. “This holiday will not be a time of cheer in the oil patch,” says West. So far oil and gas exploration companies, while cutting back somewhat, have continued to spend based on budgets set a year ago when oil prices were much higher.

But now West says the price of oil is catching up to them, and they may soon have to drastically cut back their spending on services. The catalyst is the banks. Banks lend to oil exploration companies based on the value of their reserves. But they only audit the value of those reserves every October. Given how much oil prices have tumbled in the past year, many analysts expect banks to greatly reduce in the next month how much they are willing to lend to oil and gas companies. Regulators, worried banks may face losses, have recently been pressuring banks to cut back their lending to oil and gas companies. On Friday, credit ratings firm Standard & Poors reported that its distressed ratio, which measures the%age of corporate borrowers that investors appear nervous may not be able to pay back their debt, had reached the highest level since 2011. The oil and gas sector accounted for the largest number of the distressed borrowers, 95 out of 270.

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Clueless Kiwis.

Chinese Buyers Holding Back On ‘High-End’ New Zealand Property (NZ Herald)

While some Chinese buyers are holding back on buying “high-end” property in Auckland, there is still demand for houses in the medium and lower end of the market, a Chinese-based real estate website says. Juwai.com hasn’t yet finalised its numbers for the third quarter of this year but still expects to see growth. It also predicts a massive increase in overseas investment from Chinese buyers of international property over the next few years. The Auckland housing market is cooling slightly and the boss of the city’s biggest real estate company has said Chinese property investors are disappearing from the auction room. Peter Thompson, of Barfoot and Thompson, attributes the the drop off to financial instability in China. “There are a lot less Chinese in the auction room at the moment and at the open homes,” he told the Herald on Monday.

“The market has changed and some of that is the Chinese buyers. There are more requirements in getting money out of China now and that is having an impact.” Juwai.com’s chief executive Simon Henry said he’d noticed a slow-down at the expensive end of the market. “We have some high-end buyers holding back since China announced a tightening of enforcement on the export of capital. “We haven’t yet crunched the numbers on the third quarter, but we believe they will still show growth over the second quarter,” Mr Henry said. “Mid-market and lower priced properties, like those bought for students, are still in demand.” Changes in the way Chinese investors can export capital were predicted to lead to a huge swell in money flooding into New Zealand, which Mr Henry said was a “good thing”. “It will lead to more than $100 million of new investment in New Zealand property over the medium to long term, as well as new investment in local business and industry.”

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Flip flopping with people’s lives.

Berlin To Curb Refugees As Merkel Faces Backlash (FT)

Berlin on Tuesday agreed measures aimed at curbing an unprecedented surge in migrants, including cuts to cash payments, as a backlash grew over the German government’s handling of the refugee crisis. The new laws are aimed at lifting some of the pressures on overworked local officials and reassuring voters that the government is in control of the migrant problem. Berlin wants the laws to take effect as soon as November. Chancellor Angela Merkel has come under mounting pressure, including from within her own CDU/CSU coalition, since she pledged to set “no upper limit” on the right to asylum and promised to accept all refugees from Syria. Officials expects 800,000 refugees this year, four times more than 2014.

In a surprise development, Joachim Gauck, German president, who is widely viewed as a liberal, on Sunday launched a thinly veiled attack on Ms Merkel’s handling of the crisis, saying: “Our reception capacity is limited even when it has not yet been worked out where these limits lie.” Cash handouts of €143 a month for a single person are seen as making Germany more desirable for migrants than other European states. Refugees will instead receive non-cash benefits, such as food vouchers. Cash payments for living expenses will largely be stopped for asylum-seekers living in official reception centres.

Berlin will also add Kosovo, Albania and Montenegro to a list of countries where would-be refugees can be safely returned in an attempt to staunch inflows of economic migrants from the western Balkans. Failed asylum-seekers will face more rapid removal procedures and big cuts in financial support. However, successful applicants will have quicker access to language courses to improve integration into society and the jobs market. Berlin pledged to double its refugee-linked support for regional and local authorities to 2 billion euros this year, rising to about €4 billion in 2016, assuming refugee inflows of 800,000 annually.

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There are good people everywhere. They’re just not in charge.

Risking Arrest, Thousands Of Hungarians Offer Help To Refugees (NPR)

Driving in rural, southern Hungary, especially at night, you’re likely to see people emerging from dark forests along the side of the road. They trudge along the highway’s narrow shoulder and sometimes flag down passing cars, asking for help. They’re migrants and refugees who’ve entered Hungary by the tens of thousands in recent months, mostly en route to Germany and other northern European countries. But it’s illegal for civilians in Hungary to help them get there. Hungarian law prohibits offering rides — even for free — to people who’ve entered the country illegally and without a visa. Another law grants Hungarian police and military extraordinary powers to search private homes if they suspect someone of harboring illegal migrants.

The laws, passed in stages earlier this year, target human traffickers, and have led to a few high-profile arrests. Back in August, it was in Hungary that 71 Syrian refugees were loaded into a northbound truck. They were found suffocated to death in the same truck, on the side of a highway in Austria, on Aug. 28. Hungarian police arrested four alleged smugglers. But the laws are also making well-intentioned volunteers think twice about helping — because they, too, could be prosecuted, fined or jailed. At a Migration Aid warehouse in downtown Budapest, volunteers stockpile crates of fruit and sleeping bags for refugees. Dozens of Hungarians stop by to help, including Gyorgy Goldschmit, who offers up his own home. His wife and child are going out of town for a few weeks and he says he has room for another family, if needed.

“My family is not going to be there, and I will be there – so it’s obvious that someone could come,” Goldschmit says. But Migration Aid can’t arrange it. Its directors understand Hungarian law. “Maybe they cannot help like this because that would be considered as helping illegally or trafficking,” Goldschmit says. “But I don’t care so much.” Like many Hungarians, Goldschmit is not afraid of prosecution. Thousands are helping. But it’s unclear how many more are dissuaded by these laws. It’s also unclear how aggressively the laws are being enforced. The highest-profile case so far involved a Hungarian man arrested in April after using a local ride-share website, through which fuel costs are shared, to give lifts to refugees.

He was acquitted after a months-long legal battle, but his case served as a well-publicized warning to anyone thinking of transporting migrants. “Basically, if I drive you across [the country] and you don’t have a visa, then I’m liable criminally,” says Marta Pardavi, a human rights lawyer with the Budapest branch of the Helsinki Committee. “We have advised volunteers doing this that there is a risk involved — the risk of a criminal procedure, of having to go to interrogations — and I think that risk is very real.”

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 March 3, 2015  Posted by at 1:17 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , ,  4 Responses »


DPC Country store, Venezuela 1905

From what I read in the press every day, as well as from private communication, a pretty wide divide seems to appear between what many people think the Syriza government in Athens should do, and what they actually can do at this point in time. It should be useful to clarify what this divide consists of, and how it can be breached, if that is at all possible.

In particular, many are of the opinion that Greece cannot escape its suffocating debt issues without leaving the eurozone and going its own way, reintroducing the drachma and defaulting on much of its €240 billion debt. Those who think so may well be right. But right now that is mostly irrelevant. Because Alexis Tsipras and his men and women simply don’t have their voters’ mandate to go down that road. They may at some time in the future, but they don’t today. The expectations are too great, and certainly too immediate.

If Syriza wants to achieve anything, it will need to stick to democratic principals and procedure. Every important decision, and every – even slight – change of course will need to be laid out before either the Syriza fraction in Parliament, the entire parliament, or the Greek population as a whole, to vote on. The government looks to be sticking to this principle as solidly as it seeks to stick to its mandate. None of that grey wiggle room that is so typical in most political systems.

This also makes the task ahead that much harder. Syriza must be seen by its voters as doing what it can to remain in the eurozone, while at the same time negotiating terms with the other members that will allow relief from the relentless -humanitarian – pressures the country has been put under by its previous governments and EU partners.

And while it may well be so that Tsipras and Varoufakis et al have in private long concluded that in the long term attempts to succeed in combining these two goals are doomed to fail, or even that the eurozone as a whole has no future, the fact is that for now some 70% of Greeks reportedly demand that the country remain in the currency union.

There’s a deep underlying historic component to this that needs to be recognized if one is to understand what is happening. Before the EU, and certainly the euro, Greece always felt under threat from the east, a result of centuries of occupations. They had a deep longing to be recognized as a part of Europe, and to feel protected in that sense.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard summed it up quite nicely in an interview from ‘the lion’s den’ over the weekend:

Humiliated Greece Eyes Byzantine Pivot As Crisis Deepens

“When it comes to the choice, I fear Tsipras will abandon our programme rather than give up the euro,” said one Syriza MP, glancing cautiously around in case anybody was listening as we drank coffee in the “conspiracy” canteen of the Greek parliament.

“The euro is more than just money. It is talismatic for the Greeks. It was only when we joined the euro that we felt truly European. There was always a nagging doubt before,” he said.

“But you can’t fight austerity without confronting the eurozone directly. You have to be willing to leave. It is going to take a long time for the party to accept this bitter reality. I think the euro was a tremendous historic mistake, and the sooner they get rid of it, the better for all the peoples of Europe, but that is not the party view,” he said.

This is what Tsipras faces. There’s an almost schizophrenic attitude even among his own caucus. And there may be plenty voices that say he should at least threaten to leave the eurozone, just to have some leverage in negotiations, but they don’t understand the lay of the land. The European ‘partners’ in the talks know only too well that it would be an empty threat: Greek voters don’t want to leave the eurozone, so threatening to go anyway would only ring hollow.

Tsipras instead must repeat again and again that his goal is to remain in the union, and Greece will do what it can to pay off all its debts. He has no wiggle room on that, not at the moment. If he would want to present his people with the option of leaving the eurozone, it could only be done after very extensive talks in which it becomes ever clearer that the ‘partners’ make it impossible for Greece to achieve that other Syriza commitment, of cutting back austerity measures, within the currency union.

He must at some point be able to turn to his people and say: we’ve done all we could, we’ve even compromised some of your election demands, but Germany etc. just won’t give up. He needs to be able to prove to Greek voters that they can’t have both an end to austerity AND the continued membership of the eurozone.

This will take time, probably lots of it. But it’s the only thing Tsipras, if he means to stick to strict democratic rules – which he’s done thus far -, can do. Claiming today from the outside that he should already have left the eurozone, or at least threatened to do so, is premature at best, and not helpful.

The Syriza MP cited above by Ambrose says it all, really. Some of the MPs are pretty much willing to let go of the euro. But they, too, need to understand that Tsipras can offer that option to the people only after long-drawn-out talks, at the end of which he may be able to say:

“Look, you know what we’ve been discussing with the partners, because we’ve kept you informed every step of the way. It is now clear that if you wish to stay in the eurozone, it will mean austerity, it will mean soupkitchens and no health care and no jobs for your children, for years to come. Do you really want the euro that much? If not, we can go it alone, we have the models ready and we can explain them to you. And it will no doubt be difficult at first, but at least it will be our own difficulties, not those imposed by others.. It’s up to you, the people, to decide.”

For now, those talks haven’t been held. So Tsipras can’t say these things. It will need to be a game of patience. There was never any other way.