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Debt Rattle December 21 2024

Dec 212024
 
 December 21, 2024  Posted by at 10:41 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  56 Responses »


René Magritte L’éternité 1935

 

• Shutdown Odds Tumble As House Passes Latest GOP Spending Package (ZH)
• US Democrats Want Government Shutdown To Strip Trump Of Leverage – Vance (RT)
• Advisers Had to Babysit “Diminished” Biden From the Very First Day (Sp.)
• “He has Good Days and Bad Days” (Turley)
• Musk Far More ‘Influential’ Than Trump Online – WaPo (RT)
• Trump’s Economic Plans (Jim Rickards)
• Trump Wins—and the Censorship Begins (AmG)
• Yet Another Christmas Carol (James Howard Kunstler)
• The FBI Deserves Kash Patel (John Kiriakou)
• West Has Pumped Over $300 Billion Into Ukraine – Orban
• Kiev’s Western Backers Wary About Training Soldiers Close To Front – Media (RT)
• EU Deletes ‘Ukraine Must Win’ Mantra (RT)
• Could European Peacekeepers Really be Deployed to Ukraine? (Sp.)
• Putin’s Q&A and the Forever Wars Riddle (Pepe Escobar)
• The Russian Line On Syria (Helmer)

 

 

 

 

Watters

Elon severance

MuskTrump

MuskTurley

 

 

 

 

Through this whole circus, I get the impression that what really counts is the words used to phrase the bill. You need words that allow both sides to declare victory, no matter what the bill actually says.

• Shutdown Odds Tumble As House Passes Latest GOP Spending Package (ZH)

Update: With the support of Democrats, the House just passed Speaker Johnson’s latest spending package bill. Lawmakers voted 366 to 34 to approve the proposal, well above the two-thirds threshold needed under special fast-track procedures. One lawmaker voted present. It now heads to the Senate, while the White House said in a statement that President Biden won’t stand in the way. “President Biden supports moving this legislation forward and ensuring that the vital services the government provides for hardworking Americans—from issuing Social Security checks to processing benefits for veterans—can continue as well as to grant assistance for communities that were impacted by devastating hurricanes,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement. Polymarket’s odds of a government shutdown are tumbling.

As the Epoch Times notes further, moments after the House of Representatives passed a new package to keep the federal government funded through March 14, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and other congressional lawmakers discussed the process that brought the bill over the finish line. “In bipartisan fashion, with an overwhelming majority of votes, we passed the American Relief Act of 2025,” Johnson said, adding that funding the government through March 2025 was “a big priority for us.” The House Speaker described the package as “America First” legislation that allows his GOP coalition to deliver the nation a “sea change in Washington” after Inauguration Day next month. “President Trump will return to D.C. and to the White House, and we will have Republican control of the Senate and the House,” Johnson said.

“Things are going to be very different around here.” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) took credit for the bill passing Friday evening. “House Democrats have successfully funded the government at levels requested by President [Joe] Biden in order to meet the needs of the American people in terms of their health, safety, and economic well-being,” Jeffries told reporters after the vote. “We have successfully advanced the needs of everyday Americans, but there are still things to be worked on, and we look forward to that fight in the new year.”

The package also included requested disaster relief funds after an active hurricane season that included multiple destructive storms in multiple states throughout the southeast. Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), was relieved that portion was included in the final package. “Thank God we got disaster,” Carter told The Epoch Times. Regarding the debt ceiling consideration, Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) said that the public would have to wait and see what would “be done early in the next administration.” President-elect Donald Trump suggested he was pleased with the outcome of the vote, Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.) told The Epoch Times.

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Things move fast, but it’s still useful to see what is said before the finish line.

• US Democrats Want Government Shutdown To Strip Trump Of Leverage – Vance (RT)

US Vice President-elect J.D. Vance has blasted the Democrats for rejecting a spending plan supported by Donald Trump, claiming they are trying to prevent the incoming president from “negotiating leverage” in the first year of his new term in the White House. The current federal funding is due to expire at midnight on Friday, leaving the government on the brink of a shutdown. The Democrats on Thursday rejected the new spending plan, known as a continuing resolution (CR). Thirty-eight Republicans also voted against it. The bill failed by a vote of 174-235. “The Democrats just voted to shut down the government even though we had a clean CR because they didn’t want to give the president negotiating leverage during the first year of his new term,” Vance told reporters straight after the vote.

On Wednesday, US President-elect Trump dismissed a previous bipartisan funding deal, which had been struck to prevent a shutdown just days before the Christmas break. Republicans balked at the proposed package, claiming it was bloated and full of Democratic policy priorities. Tech billionaire Elon Musk slammed the measure in dozens of posts on X, describing it as “criminal.” Instead, Trump urged lawmakers to pass a new package that included an extension of government funding until March and a two-year suspension of the debt limit into January 2027, adding trillions more to the federal government’s $36 trillion debt. The Trump-backed bill failed just hours after it was assembled, with Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson pledging to come up with another solution before government funding lapses at midnight on Friday.

Republicans have voiced opposition to increases in government spending, while Democrats voted against the bill because they argued the extra borrowing would be used to pass tax cuts for the wealthy. “They’ve asked for a shutdown and I think that’s exactly what they’re going to get,” Vance claimed. If lawmakers fail to approve a spending bill or extend the deadline, the US government will begin a partial shutdown that would affect millions of federal employees and the services they provide. While essential services such as border protection, in-hospital medical care, law enforcement and air-traffic control continue to operate, the shutdown would affect a vast number of operations, from court proceedings to travel and food safety inspections. Federal workers could go without pay, expecting they would be paid back in full once the government reopens. The last US government shutdown took place in December 2018 and January 2019 during Trump’s first White House term and was the longest in the country’s history.

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“..all US presidents have gatekeepers, the walls around Biden “were higher and the controls greater.”

• Advisers Had to Babysit “Diminished” Biden From the Very First Day (Sp.)

Joe Biden, the oldest president in US history, has repeatedly been criticized for his cognitive decline and a tendency to fall. Outgoing US President Joe Biden’s entourage has covered up the extent of his mental decline since he entered office in 2021, the Wall Street Journal reported in its bombshell investigation. The newspaper cited numerous unnamed Democratic lawmakers, donors, and presidential aides as saying that despite the fact that all US presidents have gatekeepers, the walls around Biden “were higher and the controls greater.” “There were limits over who Biden spoke with, limits on what they said to him, and limits around the sources of information he consumed,” the sources argued. “They body him to such a high degree,” one insider claimed, adding that there has been more “hand-holding” as compared to other presidents.

Biden’s “tightknit inner circle of advisers” also worked out a strategy to prevent POTUS from making gaffes or missteps that could tarnish his image, according to the sources. The advisers did their best to keep Biden’s meeting short as his public interactions became more scripted. The strategy, however, collapsed during Biden’s June 27 debate with Donald Trump, which saw the former being unable to complete his thoughts. US media reported at the time that the disastrous debate became an eye-opener and a turning point in discussions of Biden’s mental state and his suitability to serve as the next president. The 82-year-old finally dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Kamala Harris as his replacement in late July.

VDH

Doocy

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The Dems and their media play dangerous games.

“Suddenly, everyone is shocked to learn that Biden was mentally diminished..”

• “He has Good Days and Bad Days” (Turley)

In an explosive exposé, the Wall Street Journal has revealed how the mental decline of President Joe Biden was pronounced from the start of his term. However, cabinet members and other Democrats lied to the public about his declining levels of acuity and engagement. That effort succeeded largely with the help of an alliance with the media, which showed little interest in whether the President was actually running the government. After President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, the solid wall of media and staff shielding his declining mental state collapsed. Even after Special Counsel Robert Hur declined criminal charges against Biden due to his diminished state, Democratic pundits and the press covered for him, claiming that he was sharp and effective. With the debate, the public was able to see what many in the media and the White House had been hiding for years.

After interviewing roughly 50 insiders, the Journal found evidence of a knowing effort to hide Biden’s mental state. For many, Biden’s refusal to leave his home for much of the 2020 campaign was evidence of the insecurity of staff about his ability to engage with reporters. It only got worse during the term as staff virtually tackled anyone trying to ask him a question. Biden was routinely shuffled off stage after reading briefly from a teleprompter. Behind the scenes, cabinet members reportedly stopped asking for meetings with Biden after staff conveyed that such requests were not welcomed. He held far fewer cabinet meetings and was often considered “down” for any discussions. That included a period during the calamity of the Afghan withdrawal.

One official is quoted as admitting on one occasion in 2021 that Biden “has good days and bad days, and today was a bad day so we’re going to address this tomorrow.” That was just after he was elected. Yet, Biden was kept within the protective cocoon of media that did not press the issue and was infamous for ignoring scandals while asking Biden about his choice of ice cream on a given day. Now, some media outlets are re-positioning on the issue as they prepare to resume hard questioning and investigations in the new Trump Administration . . . after a four-year hiatus. Suddenly, everyone is shocked to learn that Biden was mentally diminished and blaming nameless staff for misleading them.

One exception this week was Chris Cillizza, who served as CNN’s editor-at-large before leaving the network in 2022. On YouTube, Cillizza stated, “As a reporter, I have a confession to make” and admitted “I should have pushed harder earlier for more information about Joe Biden’s mental and physical well-being and any signs of decline.” Now, everyone likes a redemptive sinner and I give Cillizza credit for admitting his own failure to pursue the story despite many critics objecting for years over the lack of such inquiries. However, Cillizza only confessed to failing to pursue the story due to a fear of being accused of “age shaming” Biden. The suggestion is that identity politics chilled journalism, not the overwhelming media support for the President and countervailing opposition to Trump.

The “age shaming” excuse is difficult to square with the failure to pursue an array of other scandals during the term from influence peddling to policy debacles. Nevertheless, Cillizza was remarkably frank that he was only able to push on the story after leaving CNN: “I didn’t really push on it, if I’m being honest. Now, once I left CNN and once it became a little bit more clear to me about Biden’s age, I think I did write pretty regularly and talk pretty regularly about how I wasn’t sure that this guy was up to it. And then obviously, after the June 27 debate, everybody, including me, was writing and talking about it.”

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X is most influential. That’s where Musk is. Trump, on Truth Social, has far less reach. They are very aware of this, and use it to their advantage.

Trying to drive a wedge between them is a fool’s game.

• Musk Far More ‘Influential’ Than Trump Online – WaPo (RT)

Messages that Elon Musk posts on X, the platform he purchased for $44 billion in 2022, have received far more viewership than those of any other politically-involved users, including President-elect Donald Trump, the Washington Post reported this week. The newspaper, which generally favors the Democratic Party, has tracked engagements since July, the month when the billionaire endorsed Trump for president. It said it has been monitoring posts hourly for 48 hours after publication to assess the “influence” that X users have on their audience. According to its analysis, Musk’s messages have received a total of 133 billion views during the monitoring period, which is 15 times more than Trump’s posts on the platform and more than 16 times more than the combined reach of all accounts belonging to members of the incoming Congress.

In short, the entrepreneur “eclipses” all others in terms of influence, the Post suggested. Trump was suspended from Twitter in the wake of the January 6, 2021 Capitol Hill riot, before Musk bought the company and changed its name to X. The president-elect has since moved the bulk of his political messaging to his own platform, Truth Social. Musk reinstated Trump’s X account after purchasing the microblogging network. WaPo has suggested that Trump’s presence elsewhere doesn’t significantly affect its analysis. He has “only 8.4 million followers there compared to his 96 million on X,” it said. Critics of Trump have been sounding the alarm over what they perceive as the undue influence that Musk has on the Republican politician and the future policies of his administration.

The billionaire has been closely involved with the transition process and has publicly weighed in on electoral politics with his online commentary on appointments. Nancy Pelosi, the former House speaker and a key figure in the Democratic establishment, described Trump as the billionaire’s “puppet” on Thursday, while reacting to the failure of Congress to pass a stop-gap funding bill this week. Musk has led the online charge against the 1,547-page proposal, released on Tuesday, branding it “criminal,” “outrageous,” “unconscionable,” and ultimately “one of the worst bills ever written.” Democratic lawmakers opposed an alternative bill pitched by Trump. Friday is the deadline for allocating more money to keep the federal government running.

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“..nominal growth is higher than the nominal deficit and the debt-to-GDP ratio is declining. That’s the key to sustainability.”

• Trump’s Economic Plans (Jim Rickards)

Trump will begin his first 100 days with an emphasis on his economic plans. His core economic team is already announced including Russell Vought as Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Jamieson Greer as U.S. Trade Representative, Kevin Hassett as Director of the National Economic Council, Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary, and Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce. Hassett and Bessent will form the core of this team with Greer taking the lead on tariffs and Vought taking the lead on budget deficits and fiscal policy. Trump’s economic policy will be built around what are called the Three Arrows. That’s a name adopted by the new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He took the name from the Three Arrows policy of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who announced them in 2012. Abe’s arrows were monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and structural reforms to make Japan more competitive. Bessent’s arrows are different, but the basic idea of using government to help grow the economy in productive ways is the same.

Bessent’s plan is also called the “3–3–3” plan for reasons that are made clear below. Bessent’s first arrow is to achieve 3% annual real growth in the U.S. economy. This may not sound like much, but it is. From 2009 to 2019 (basically the period from the end of the last financial crisis to the beginning of COVID), the U.S. grew at a rate of only 2.2% per year. Economists estimate that the potential growth of a mature developed economy such as the U.S. is about 3.2%. That gap between 3.2% potential growth and 2.2% actual growth means trillions of dollars of lost wealth over time. From 1983 to 1986 during the Reagan years, the economy actually did grow at just over 5% per year. Real growth during that three-year stretch was 16%. (Although this followed the severe recession of 1981-1982.

Growth higher than potential is possible when labor and industrial slack from a prior recession is available). So, Bessent’s goal of 3% real growth is realistic given potential performance, past performance, and recent lagging growth. The emphasis here is on “real” growth. This means growth without taking into account any inflation. If real growth is 3% and inflation is 2%, then nominal growth will be 5% (3% real + 2% inflation = 5% nominal). Everyday Americans are properly focused on real growth because they don’t want to see their wage gains eaten up by inflation. Still, nominal growth is important when considering debt service since debt is nominal — you owe what you owe whether the real value is preserved or not. Bessent’s second arrow is to keep annual deficits below 3% of GDP. When discussing debt, we are dealing with nominal amounts rather than real amounts. For example, if U.S. GDP is projected at $28 trillion for a given fiscal year, then the deficit for that year cannot exceed $840 billion under Bessent’s plan.

Note that this does not involve “paying off the national debt” or even running a small surplus. A deficit of $840 billion is huge. But the limitation of 3% of GDP is highly significant in terms of making the debt sustainable and maintaining confidence in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury securities. Before deciding that this is an easy target, it’s helpful to know that the U.S. deficit for fiscal year 2024 is $1.83 trillion. The deficit in fiscal year 2023 was $1.69 trillion. In short, Bessent’s goal of an $840 billion deficit represents a 54% reduction in the deficit from 2024 levels and a 50% reduction from 2023 levels. That’s a huge reduction in the deficit in one fiscal year. Not all of this deficit reduction would have to come from spending cuts, although some of it could, especially if Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy identify enough government waste through their new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

It’s likely that Musk and Ramaswamy will easily identify wasteful spending. The hard part is getting it to stop. The other way to cut the deficit is to grow the economy in such a way that government revenues grow with it. This does not mean tax rate increases. It does mean tax revenue increases from current or even reduced tax rates. One ace-in-the-hole for Trump and Bessent will be tariffs. Those are not part of the Internal Revenue Code, but they do generate government revenues. The U.S. began tariffs in 1790, but the Internal Revenue Code did not come into being until 1913. For 123 years, the U.S. government-funded itself mostly with tariffs, excise taxes, and borrowing without the benefit of income taxes.

The U.S. currently imports over $3.5 trillion of goods per year. If only half were subject to tariffs of 10%, that would generate $175 billion of new revenue, which goes a long way to reaching Bessent’s deficit reduction goals. Now the genius of the Three Arrows plan becomes clear. If nominal GDP growth is 5% (3% real + 2% inflation), and nominal deficits are kept to 3% of GDP, that means nominal growth is higher than the nominal deficit and the debt-to-GDP ratio is declining. That’s the key to sustainability.

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“..the alphabet news outlets, which provided Kamala Harris with “78 percent positive coverage, while these same networks have pummeled former President Donald Trump with 85 percent negative coverage..”

• Trump Wins—and the Censorship Begins (AmG)

As was proven during the 2024 election cycle, we are well beyond the scope of mere bias in the legacy media. Given the shrinking audience influence coupled with massively declining income from severe loss of cable subscriptions and advertising revenue, American media outlets have chosen a different course: straight-up propaganda intended for consumption by a niche audience, half of which don’t know they’re being lied to and the other half not caring. Broadcasting has been replaced with “wish casting.” How else can we explain the completely lopsided coverage from the alphabet news outlets, which provided Kamala Harris with “78 percent positive coverage, while these same networks have pummeled former President Donald Trump with 85 percent negative coverage?” And it was even more biased on CNN and MSNBC.

Major media outlets broadcast opinion-centric journalism that push narratives, ranging from “extinction-grade climate crisis” pronouncements to the “existential threat to democracy” dangers of a second Donald Trump presidency. There are no “two sides” reporting here; it is commentary passed off as “journalism” that wraps news stories around pre-packaged and carefully circulated talking points that favor the establishment bureaucracy and big-moneyed interests over American citizens. Simultaneously, Trump is a threat to democracy and will jail or even execute his opponents, is in service to Vladimir Putin, and will wreck the economy with his extremist MAGA agenda that is tied directly to Project 2025.

Trump will launch World War III, he’ll outlaw homosexuality and transgenderism, and he’ll cancel all future elections and become dictator for life. It will be the end of America, and a vote for Kamala Harris will be our “new way forward.” The American legacy media always had a tenuous relationship with its viewers and readers, losing its credibility every time the public finds that what is reported turns out to be completely untrue. Exhausted from the lies of omission and outright fabrications, the legacy media found itself without much of an audience and surprisingly little influence on the 2024 presidential election. But a ridiculous narrative is shaping up, one plainly untrue on its face, that the reason for Trump’s victory was not inflation, illegal immigration, or the economy, or that Harris-Walz was an outrageously insulting offering by the Democrats.

No, the reason Trump sailed to victory was “the massive influence of right-wing media.” Let that last statement sink in for a moment. That’s right, you can blame One America News, X, Newsmax, Fox News (still considered “right-wing” by many, especially on the left), assorted podcasts, and especially Joe Rogan, for putting Trump back into the White House. And the legacy media, who provided hideously lopsided coverage against Trump for years and conducted the presidential and vice-presidential debates in a grossly biased fashion, whines that their massive investment in Kamala Harris was thwarted by a relatively tiny segment of alternative media and citizen journalism. You have delusional, far-left, Democrat operatives like Julie Roginsky being taken to the woodshed by Scott Jennings, saying that the media and social media, especially, are now controlled by conservatives

[..] Need more evidence? Watch compressed election night coverage on ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, and, worst of all, MSNBC to see how optimism at 8 PM EST morphed to concern by midnight and outright despair around 3 AM when Trump declared victory. Both left-leaning cable channels, CNN and MSNBC, didn’t call the race until shortly after 5 AM on Wednesday. The Associated Press, the New York Times, CBS, and ABC all called the race around 5:30 AM. This was hours after the result was no longer in doubt. Well, it actually was. But it’s not because of the outsized influence of conservative media; it was because of the decimated influence of the legacy media. Most Americans no longer need solid evidence to conclude that they are being lied to by legacy outlets; thus, they turn to alternative media for truthful content and credible opinion.

This obvious shift in content consumption should be solid proof that the left can no longer control, frame, or even influence public opinion. The growth of alternative media and Elon Musk’s refusal to censor conservative thoughts and opinions on X/Twitter have loosened the multi-generational grip legacy media has had over journalism and have brought new voices into the mix, offering a mere balance in information. But the American Left cannot tolerate informational balance.

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“The nation appears to be having a kind of moment involving a gross, naked emperor and a bunch of people noticing this isn’t a nudist-friendly zone.” — Jeff Childers

• Yet Another Christmas Carol (James Howard Kunstler)

Hitler was dead, to begin with. As dead as ein Türnagel. At least no one had heard him squawk since the Russkies cracked bottles of Dunkelbrau at the Brandenburg Gate, April, 1945. Nobody ever called Joe Biden “Hitler,” but around his gloomy place-of-business, known as the “White House, they sometimes called him “Joe Biden,” with a titter and a smirk, as they called “a lid” on his bewildered day and stuffed him into the nearest broom closet. “Joe Biden” was a mere babe in pram when old Adolf bid farewell to his smoldering Reich. But, eight decades later, after being jammed into the Oval Office by his chauffeur, one Barack Obama, the grasping, scraping, flinty, clutching, covetous old bird, sometimes known as “the Big Guy,” from whom no match had ever struck the fire of an original idea, or a good idea, or even a sound, workable idea, shuffled to his bed-chamber in the lonely compartment known as the White House “residence” on Christmas eve.

“Humbug!” he maundered to himself as he struggled aboard the cold presidential bed, absent lately of the doctor who once claimed to be his wedded wife. “Humbug,” was the new flavor that Ben and Jerry had concocted just for the holiday, a “green” ice-cream featuring pureed mealworms and cocoa bean husks for a satisfyingly punitive crunch. Was Dr. Jill dead, too, now, old “JB” wondered, like his old pals Senator Byrd, and feisty Strom Thurmond and other members of “the firm?” (Or was she in the arms of that scoundrel, Emhoff?) “Humbug,” he mumbled as he fell off into a cruel, blank slumber. He awakened — he knew not how many minutes longer — to a snorting noise, as of pigs rooting in a forest, followed by a thin, sonorous wailing that might have been the revenant of some once-mighty bombast in the Nuremburg Zeppelinfeld.

And then resolved out of a mist the very figure of Hitler, his once-smart, gray Führeruniform tattered and threadbare, and the whole of his body wreathed in rotting sausages, the reek of which might have driven a rank of the stoutest, blondest SS leutnants to their knees in abject surrender. “What do you want of me?” Scrooge cried, but this ghost of Hitler only wailed again and beckoned with gnarled finger. Suddenly, “Joe Biden” seemed to be flying out in the night air across a great swamp, and then north over the Beltway, to Scranton, Pennsylvania. The scene: a slagheap behind the Lackawanna Iron and Steel Company, 1949. “JB” is a boy again — oh, to be a boy, with loose joints and a clear mind! — playing with his chums, Bob McGee and Sonny Donahoe. They are reenacting the last days of World War Two.

“I’ll be Ike,” says Bob, always a leader whom “Joe” liked to please. “Sonny, you be Omar Bradley. And “Joey,” you can be Hitler.” “Joey” loved playing Hitler: a few minutes of fulminating histrionics! Then, his hand mimicking a Walther P-38 with the muzzle pointed behind the ear, and the plosive pow! And then, writhing upon the heap of cinders acting out the Führer’s last moments. “You were so good at it!” the ghost wailed. “What happened to you?” “I wish I knew. Everything’s a blur now. But tell me, spirit: was I a good you?” “One of the best!” the ghost of Hitler moaned and dissolved into vapor.

“Joe Biden” wakes again in his bedchamber. It is flooded with bright light and trappings of the holiday: a tree festooned with what appear to be gleaming glass ornaments shaped like dildoes. And before it, enrobed in scarlet and muskrat fur, the cheerful figure of Senator-elect Adam Schiff, grinning from ear to ear, with a wreath of holly about his lightbulb-shaped head. The light is blinding. “What are you doing here?” the president asks. “And remind me what your name is, if it’s not too much to ask. “I am the ghost of Christmas Present,” Mr. Schiff intones, as though dispensing yet another rumor of Russian collusion. “Come, take my hand.”

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Kiriakou appears to suggest that Patel would go after people who have immunity. He won’t.

• The FBI Deserves Kash Patel (John Kiriakou)

On the surface of things, Kash Patel is the kind of person most of us would want to keep out of government. A MAGA true believer, and Donald Trump’s choice to head the F.B.I., he’s the tip of the spear of Trump’s apparent effort to use the courts to go after his perceived enemies in the media and on Capitol Hill. The mainstream Democratic-oriented press is apoplectic about the appointment. The Christian Science Monitor said it most clearly when it wrote that, “Democrats invoke (the notorious late F.B.I. Director J. Edgar Hoover) as they warn about Mr. Patel, suggesting he will target political enemies. Republicans, though, compare Hoover’s tenure to what they say is a modern ‘deep state” resisting and harassing Mr. Trump.” That’s the bottom line. Democrats compare him to Hoover while Republicans argue that he’s the anti-Hoover.

I’m here to argue that Kash Patel is exactly what Americans need right now at the F.B.I. We need somebody with the guts and the political authority to burn the F.B.I. down, at least figuratively. First, I’m under no illusions that Kash Patel is a good guy. According to former Fox News host Bill O’Reilly, Patel is “salivating” at the opportunity to investigate and, apparently, charge former Rep. Liz Cheney with some sort of crime because of her work on the Jan. 6 Committee. This is not only wrong, it also ignores the fact that Cheney had congressional immunity for her work because she was serving in an official capacity for the committee. Nothing will come of any investigation.

The press also has opined that Patel will target police officers who arrested protestors at the Jan. 6 riots at the Capitol for investigation. Again, the police have qualified immunity, and nothing will come of the idea. He has also called for the prosecution of a wide range of political figures, including President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and outgoing F.B.I. Director Christopher Wray. Again, they have immunity, and nothing will come of Patel’s rhetoric.

[..] The bureau also investigated candidate Trump and participated in the Russiagate fiasco in Operation Hurricane Crossfire. I’ve had my own negative experience with the F.B.I. In 2009, the bureau secretly opened a criminal case against me in response to my having blown the whistle on the C.I.A.’s torture program. In the end, I was charged with five felonies, including three counts of espionage. I hadn’t committed espionage, of course, and those charges were dropped, but not until I had declared bankruptcy.

To make the case go away, I pleaded guilty to a lesser charge and served 23 months in a federal prison. I had been facing 45 years. In the intervening years, three F.B.I. agents have reached out to me to apologize for their role in the case, saying that it was political in nature and that they were ordered to target me. That’s the F.B.I. That’s what it does. And that is why we need Kash Patel at the helm of the F.B.I. right now. We need somebody who is willing to tear this organization down to its bare studs. The F.B.I. is a criminal organization. It should be dealt with like a criminal organization. There should be a price to pay for its crimes against the American people.

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And what’s the return on that investment?

“This “enormous” amount of money could have been given to Europeans to make people’s lives much better..”

• West Has Pumped Over $300 Billion Into Ukraine – Orban

The US and the EU have provided over $300 billion in financial aid and military assistance to Kiev since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said. Such a huge amount of money “could have done wonders” had it been spent to improve the lives of people within the EU, he said in an interview with Kossuth radio on Friday. Orban highlighted the evolving military situation, noting that “the balance of power on the frontlines is shifting day by day” in Russia’s favor. He also pointed to the political changes expected in the US when Donald Trump returns to the White House next month. The developments call for leaders in EU capitals to embrace a more pragmatic approach to ensuring stability and economic resilience within the bloc, Orban believes.

However, the prime minister argued that Brussels remains out of touch with global realities, pointing to a recent European Parliament decision to continue sending substantial funds to Kiev – a move he described as a clear example of misplaced priorities. “During the negotiation with the Americans, I received the figure that Europe and America together have spent €310 billion so far. Those are huge numbers!” the Hungarian prime minister stressed. He argued that the hundreds of billions of euros already spent to fund the conflict could have been used to bolster European infrastructure, to develop countries in the Western Balkans to the level of the EU, or beef up military capabilities. This “enormous” amount of money could have been given to Europeans to make people’s lives much better, the Hungarian leader concluded.

Russia has repeatedly warned that no amount of Western aid will stop its troops from achieving the goals of the military operation or change the ultimate outcome of the conflict. By backing Kiev, they only prolong the conflict, Moscow has argued. Earlier this month, Orban proposed a Christmas ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, describing it as a last-ditch attempt to mediate a diplomatic resolution of the conflict. He floated the idea to Kiev and Moscow, as well as to Trump, who he personally met at his residence in Florida. The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow “fully supports Orban’s efforts aimed at finding a peaceful settlement and resolving humanitarian issues related to the exchange of prisoners.” However, Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky rejected Budapest’s offer.

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Sitting ducks.

• Kiev’s Western Backers Wary About Training Soldiers Close To Front – Media (RT)

Western officials are concerned about British plans to potentially resume the training of Kiev’s troops inside Ukraine, The Times reported on Friday, citing sources familiar with the matter. The UK is among the nations that have trained the Ukrainian military on their soil. Valery Zaluzhny, Kiev’s former top general who has been appointed ambassador to London, toured a boot camp in southern England last month to tell these recruits that they should not be afraid to die for their country. This week, British Defense Secretary John Healey said the UK could send military personnel to Ukraine. Such a move would help the Ukrainians “motivate and mobilize more recruits,” he suggested during a visit to Kiev. “The closer to the front, the more efficient the training is,” a Western official told The Times, discussing the merits and drawbacks of such a deployment.

“But it’s fair to say the Russians would target any kind of Western assistance inside Ukraine.” The UK had sent several dozen instructors into Ukraine in January 2022 to teach Kiev’s forces how to operate British-donated anti-tank missiles, the report added. They were pulled out shortly before direct hostilities with Russia broke out the following month. Yavorov military base in Western Ukraine, where the training took place, was hit by Russian long-range missiles within weeks, in March 2022. The Ukrainian military is struggling to replenish manpower, despite a major overhaul of its mobilization system this year, which introduced harsher punishments for draft avoidance and lowered the conscription age to 25 years. Mandatory conscription makes recruits prone to desertion, according to the media.

Kiev’s Western backers claim that moving their training programs closer to the front would bolster the confidence of Ukrainian citizens that they would be properly trained and equipped before being sent into combat. The Times claimed that Tony Radakin, the chief of the defense staff, overruled Army chief Patrick Sanders, when he was pushing in September 2023 for the UK to train Ukrainian troops inside the country. Russia considers foreign fighters in Ukraine fair military targets. It claims that some Western service members are secretly on the ground, preparing the launches of donated long-range missiles, including Britain’s Storm Shadows. This makes the donors de facto participants in the fighting, Russian officials have said. Moscow has condemned the conflict as a Western proxy war against Russia, in which Ukrainians are used as ‘cannon fodder’.

Read more …

Replaced by “Russia must not prevail”.

• EU Deletes ‘Ukraine Must Win’ Mantra (RT)

The European Union has reportedly dialed back its stance on the Ukraine conflict, replacing the phrase “Ukraine must win this war” with “Russia must not prevail” in a European Council statement on new sanctions against Russia, first released on Monday. The revision apparently came after questions from Politico about its alignment with Brussels’ latest diplomatic messaging. An EU official said the original statement was a mistake, according to Politico’s Brussels Playbook newsletter. A separate statement released by the European Council on Thursday also used the phrase “Russia must not prevail” when discussing the Ukraine conflict. Council President Antonio Costa, who had a joint press conference with Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky the same day, stated that “international law must prevail.”

Politico’s Eddy Wax said the change in EU messaging highlights a broader shift in the West, as US President-elect Donald Trump intends to seek a swift end to the hostilities upon taking office in late January. Some senior figures in the EU, including the bloc’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, have continued to insist that “Ukraine will win” in their public statements. However, there is a growing acknowledgement in Brussels that it cannot prop up Kiev without Washington’s backing, the Politico report suggested. “The EU’s strategy appears to be flattering Trump, wishfully projecting onto him, and turning a blind eye to some of his more alarming statements,” the outlet said.

Kiev, meanwhile, has not toned down its rhetoric on the conflict. On Thursday, both Zelensky and his chief of staff, Andrey Yermak, publicly insulted Russian President Vladimir Putin following his annual marathon Q&A event earlier in the day. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who serves as deputy chair of the national Security Council, suggested on Friday that Kiev was trying to derail Trump’s peace efforts by antagonizing Moscow further. Zelensky is “showing the middle finger” to the incoming American leader, Medvedev claimed.

Read more …

Only if Russia gives permission. Which means no weapons.

• Could European Peacekeepers Really be Deployed to Ukraine? (Sp.)

Few European countries would risk sending their soldiers to Ukraine as part of some kind of a peacekeeping force, former Swedish military officer and politician Mikael Valtersson told Sputnik. He outlined two potential scenarios of peacekeeper deployment in the Ukrainian conflict zone, with the basis for both being “a ceasefire along the current front lines and no Ukrainian NATO membership in the foreseeable future.” The first scenario involves an international peacekeeping force comprised of troops from countries or regions unaffiliated with the participants of the Ukrainian conflict, such as “Türkiye, India, Latin America, Africa, ASEAN and maybe European countries like Hungary and Slovakia.”

The second scenario, where EU troops would be sent as peacekeepers, would likely result in Russia perceiving it as a breach of any ceasefire and would restart the fighting “long before the Western forces reached the front lines.” As a result, Europe would be left with a conflict “involving several European countries, but without the backing of NATO or the US,” so it is small wonder that, as Valtersson put it, “it would be impossible to get unity within Europe about such a mission.”

“Instead, the fighting probably will continue during 2025, without US support, until Ukraine realises that they must accept the situation on the ground. But then the conditions might be even more severe for Ukraine,” Valtersson mused. “They lost a great opportunity to get a good deal during the Istanbul negotiations and risk gambling away even more now.” “A much more plausible scenario for European military involvement on the ground in Ukraine is that some of the more hawkish nations send support units and ‘instructors’ to Ukraine,” Valtersson warned. These European troops would become prime targets for Russia, he added, without actually having “much impact” on the outcome of the conflict.

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“Christianity was born in Damascus (remember St. Paul) – not in Jerusalem. When Putin went to Damascus, he was on an Orthodox Christian pilgrimage: coming from the Third Rome (Moscow) to pay his respects to the precursor of the first Rome, the cradle of Christianity.”

• Putin’s Q&A and the Forever Wars Riddle (Pepe Escobar)

He spoke for four and a half hours, virtually non-stop, reviewing the results of 2024, mastering all the facts. His Direct Line received over 2 million questions, from Russia and around the world. And he had to crown the performance with a flourish, in an “I did it, my way” vein: “I believe that not only did I simply save [Russia], we moved away from the edge of the abyss.” The record would confirm it, compared to the appalling state of the Russia he inherited when first elected president in March 2000. President Putin’s end of the year Q&A contains enough substance to be unpacked for weeks, if not months. Let’s focus here on our current geopolitical crossroads: the Forever Wars in West Asia and Ukraine, two vectors of the standard imperial drive, now united in an Omni-War. Putin stated that, “we have come to Syria in order to prevent a terrorists’ enclave (…) In general, our goal has been achieved.”

Whether Syria remains “terrorist free” remains to be seen: the new, “inclusive”, rebranded as woke Emir of Damascus, al-Jolani, a Saudi national, is a certified Salafi-jihadi still with a $10 million American bounty on his head. The “enclave” now encompasses most of former Syrian sovereign territory, otherwise illegally occupied by jihadi gangs and Zionist lebensraum practitioners. It’s important to remember that Russia first intervened in Syria in 2015 not so much to keep access to the warm waters of the Eastern Mediterranean: but mostly to protect holy Christian Orthodox sites in Damascus. Christianity was born in Damascus (remember St. Paul) – not in Jerusalem. When Putin went to Damascus, he was on an Orthodox Christian pilgrimage: coming from the Third Rome (Moscow) to pay his respects to the precursor of the first Rome, the cradle of Christianity.

On the larger Levantine geopolitical picture, Putin is correct. The CIA invented Operation Timber Sycamore way back in 2012 to train and weaponize “moderate rebels” to overthrow Assad – spending over $1 billion a year: the most extensive CIA covert op since the jihad in Afghanistan in the 1980s. The UK, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan were Sycamore partners. Over the final years, the Pentagon jumped in to “prepare” Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the “soft” ISIS splinter group. Ultimately it was nearly 14 years of toxic US sanctions and relentless siege warfare that led to the final act, complete with Ukrainian drone instructors, mountains of Qatari cash and the Turk-assembled crypto-al Qaeda infantry (no more than 350 fighters, according to Putin himself). Now it’s a matter of adapting. Putin said that, “we have established relations with all those that control the situation on the ground (…)

Most countries expect the Russian bases to remain (…) Our interests should coincide, a question that requires painstaking examination.” He also reminded everyone that politics is the art of compromise – and Russia’s strategic priority is to keep the bases in Tartus and Hmeimim. Putin brushed aside the notion that Russia has been weakened by Assad’s downfall in Syria, quoting Mark Twain: “Rumors about my death have been greatly exaggerated.” Instead, he practically proposed that the Russian bases could provide humanitarian aid: one can imagine the population of a deeply polarized, fragmented Syria arguing with the Salafi-jihadis to get their share. Were that to happen, Russia would be in direct aid competition with the collective West. The EU, via its new, deranged Estonian ultra-Russophobic foreign policy chief, has already ordered that there will be no sanctions relief if the Russian bases stay.

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“If earlier, let’s say, the same Iranian friends asked [us] to help them move their units into the territory of Syria, now they asked us to withdraw them from there.”

• The Russian Line On Syria (Helmer)

Quoting Mark Twain, President Vladimir Putin has made his first public statement on Syria during his Direct Line broadcast on Thursday. “Whoever wants to imagine Russia weakened…I want to recall the famous man and writer, who once said: ‘The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.’” During four and a half hours of question-and-answer, Putin responded to questions on the Syrian conflict from a US and later a Turkish reporter. He said the future of the Russian bases at Khmeimim and Tartus is undecided. “The vast majority of [Syrian groups] tell us that they would want our military bases to remain in Syria. I don’t know — we should think about it, because we have to decide for ourselves how we relate to the political forces that are now in control and will control the situation in this country in the future. Our interests ought to coincide. If we stay there, then we have to do something in the interests of the country where we are.

”Putin endorsed the Turkish military movements into Syria over the Israeli ones. “Israel is also solving security issues for itself…We hope that Israel someday will leave the territory of Syria, but right now it is bringing in there additional troops. I think there are already thousands of troops. And I have such an impression, that they are not only not going to leave, but they are going to reinforce there…Turkey needs to ensure its security somehow. We understand that all. This is not for today’s meeting, so as not to waste time.” To Keir Simmons of NBC, Putin said: “You and those who, I repeat, pay your wages, want to present everything that happens in Syria like some kind of failure, the defeat of Russia…We came to Syria ten years ago so that it would not become a terrorist enclave like the fact we observed in some other countries, say, in Afghanistan.

In general, we have achieved our goals… And even those groups that fought against the Assad regime, with government troops, also undergo internal changes. No wonder today many European countries and the United States want to establish a relationship with them. If they are terrorist organizations, what are you doing there? So, they’ve changed, have they? This means that to a certain extent, the [Russian] goal has been achieved. “Furthermore, we did not have ground troops in Syria. They just weren’t there. There are our two bases — air and naval. The ground component consisted of the armed forces of Syria itself and some, as we all know — there is no secret here – the so-called pro-Iranian combat formations. In our time we even took out of there [Russian] special forces. We didn’t just fight there.

“What has been happening there? When armed opposition groups approached Aleppo, Aleppo was protected by about thirty thousand people. 350 militants entered the city. Government forces, and with them the so-called pro-Iranian units, retreated without a fight, blew up their positions, and left. And also with some small exceptions, where there were some clashes, that was what happened throughout Syria. If earlier, let’s say, the same Iranian friends asked [us] to help them move their units into the territory of Syria, now they asked us to withdraw them from there. We took out four thousand Iranian fighters from the Khmeimim base to Teheran. Part of the so-called pro-Iranian units went without a fight to Lebanon, some to Iraq.

“Today the situation in the Syrian Arab Republic is not easy, of course. We very much hope that there will be peace, tranquility. We support relations with all the groups that control the situation there, with all countries of the region. The vast majority of them tell us that they would want our military bases to remain in Syria. I don’t know — we should think about it, because we have to decide for ourselves how we relate to the political forces that are now in control and will control the situation in this country in the future. Our interests ought to coincide. If we stay there, then we have to do something in the interests of the country where we are.

“What will be our interests there? What can we do for them? This is a question that is waiting for painstaking research on both sides. Already now we can do something, including using these bases – we have already offered it to our partners, including those located in Syria, and neighboring countries. [We] offered the use of, say, the Khmeimim airbase to deliver humanitarian aid in Syria. And this is accepted with understanding and desire to organize this work together. The same applies to the naval base in Tartus. Therefore, whoever wants to imagine Russia weakened, since you are an American, I want to recall the famous man and writer [Mark Twain], who once said: ‘The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.’”

Later in the broadcast, Putin was asked a question by Ali Jura of the Turkish state news agency Anadolu: “Mr. President, Israel violates international rights by killing tens of thousands of people, including children in Palestine and Lebanon. Israel now takes advantage of the situation in the region to occupy Syria and violates its sovereignty. How do you comment on the actions of Israel? Did you have a conversation with President Erdogan about the region as a whole? Thank you.”

Read more …

 

 

 

 

Brian Cox

 

 

Gervais

 

 

Pesticides

 

 

Wind

 

 

Shelter toys

 

 

Vibes
https://twitter.com/i/status/1870187674583060962

 

 

Husky

 

 

Bump

 

 

 

 

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Debt Rattle December 18 2024

Dec 182024
 
 December 18, 2024  Posted by at 10:22 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  72 Responses »


Pablo Picasso Woman in an armchair (Olga) 1922

 

• Trump Says He Wants To Talk To Putin (RT)
• Trump Could End US-Supported Long-Range Strikes on Russia (Antiwar)
• Assad’s Overthrow An ‘Unfriendly Takeover’ By Türkiye – Trump (RT)
• Trump Threatens To Fire Federal Employees Working From Home (JTN)
• Trump Sues Des Moines Register, Pollster For Brazen Election Interference (ZH)
• House GOP Accuses Liz Cheney Of Tampering With J6 Witness (JTN)
• The Danger of White Knight Pardons (Turley)
• An Open Letter To Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (AmG)
• Will Putin Fight or Surrender? (Paul Craig Roberts)
• Finland Warns Against Peacekeepers In Ukraine (RT)
• Slain Russian General Worked Fearlessly To Expose Western Crimes – Moscow (RT)
• Which Western Politician Will Flee Their Sinking Ship Next? (Marsden)
• Musk Accuses ‘Deep State Traitors’ Of Targeting Him (RT)
• Boeing’s Failed Plea Deal: What Happens Next (ET)
• World Gripped By Mental Health ‘Pandemic’ – FT (RT)

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1868707860504625322

Trump Xi
https://twitter.com/i/status/1868830594991636722

Kash

Jennings
https://twitter.com/i/status/1868863814256431386

Mike Benz

Tucker Sachs

 

 

 

 

“It’s a carnage that we haven’t seen since the Second World War,” he continued. “It’s got to be stopped. And I’m doing my best to stop [it].”

• Trump Says He Wants To Talk To Putin (RT)

US President-elect Donald Trump has said that he will speak to both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky in a bid to stop the “carnage” between Moscow and Kiev. During a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate on Monday, Trump refused to comment when asked whether he had spoken to Putin since he won last month’s presidential election. However, Trump said that he intends to do so. “We’ll be talking to President Putin and we’ll be talking to the representatives, Zelensky and representatives from Ukraine,” he said. “We’ve got to stop it. It’s carnage,” he added, referring to the almost three-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine. “It’s a carnage that we haven’t seen since the Second World War,” he continued. “It’s got to be stopped. And I’m doing my best to stop [it].”

Trump vowed on the campaign trail to end the conflict within a day of taking office, although he has since admitted that doing this may be “more difficult” than he previously thought. The incoming president met with Zelensky in Paris earlier this month, and said immediately after last month’s election that he will likely speak to Putin in the near future. Trump and his prospective cabinet officials have refused to comment on media reports claiming that they have been in contact with Moscow, while the Kremlin last month denied a report by the Washington Post suggesting that Trump reached out to Putin by phone immediately after the election. Putin has said that Trump’s statements on ending the conflict “deserve attention,” and that he is open to talks with the president-elect. “It wouldn’t be beneath me to call him myself,” the Russian president said at a meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club in Sochi last month.

As Trump has not revealed any details on the kind of settlement he intends to propose to Putin and Zelensky, his plans have remained the subject of media speculation. Most American news outlets have predicted that Trump will push for the conflict to be frozen along the current line of contact, with Ukraine abandoning its aspirations of NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees from the West. Trump has explicitly said that the US will leave the enforcement of such a deal up to NATO’s European members. Moscow maintains that any settlement must begin with Ukraine ceasing military operations and acknowledging the “territorial reality” that it will never regain control of the regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye, as well as Crimea. In addition, the Kremlin insists that the goals of its military operation – which include Ukrainian neutrality, demilitarization, and denazification – will be achieved.

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“He should be prepared to make a deal. That’s all. Too many people being killed..”

• Trump Could End US-Supported Long-Range Strikes on Russia (Antiwar)

President-elect Donald Trump suggested at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago on Monday that he could reverse President Biden’s decision to support long-range missile strikes on Russian territory. Trump said it was a “big mistake” for the Biden administration to greenlight the escalation without asking him what he thought. When asked if he might reverse the decision, the president-elect said, “I might, yeah. I thought it was a very stupid thing to do.” The comments mark the second time in recent days that Trump expressed his concern over the long-range strikes that Ukraine has launched using US ATACMS missiles and British Storm Shadow missiles. In an interview with Time Magazine that was published last week, Trump said that he “vehemently” disagreed with Biden’s decision. The Kremlin noted Trump’s comments and said Russia agreed with the president-elect.

“The statement in itself is fully in harmony with our position. That is, our visions of reasons behind the escalation coincide. And, of course, we like that,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Biden signed off on long-range strikes in Russia despite Moscow making it clear the escalation would risk nuclear war. In response to the step, Russian President Vladimir Putin formally changed Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. At his press conference, Trump also said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should be ready to make a deal with Russia to end the war. “He should be prepared to make a deal. That’s all. Too many people being killed,” he said. Trump campaigned on ending the proxy war but hasn’t articulated how he will do that. When asked if he would pressure Ukraine to cede territory, Trump wouldn’t give a direct answer.

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“[Türkiye] wanted [Syria] for thousands of years, and he got it… Türkiye did an unfriendly takeover without a lot of lives being lost..”

Again, Trump doesn’t want the killing.

• Assad’s Overthrow An ‘Unfriendly Takeover’ By Türkiye – Trump (RT)

Türkiye is behind the regime change in Syria, US President-elect Donald Trump claimed on Monday in his first press briefing since the November election. Trump called the overthrow of Bashar Assad and his government an “unfriendly takeover” by Ankara. The situation in Syria has changed drastically over the past two weeks after militants led by the Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS) jihadist group launched an offensive against the country’s troops, taking over major cities, including the capital Damascus. After the collapse of the Syrian military, the armed opposition seized power, forcing President Assad to flee to Russia, where he was granted political asylum. “Those people that went in are controlled by Türkiye, and that’s OK,” Trump stated. He added that he considers Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a “smart” and “very tough” guy for succeeding in the overthrow of the Syrian leadership.

“[Türkiye] wanted [Syria] for thousands of years, and he got it… Türkiye did an unfriendly takeover without a lot of lives being lost,” Trump added. He also praised what he described as Türkiye’s “major military force” which “has not been worn out with war.” According to Trump, Türkiye will also play a significant role in Syria’s future. “Nobody knows what the final outcome is going to be in the region. Nobody knows who will rule in the final… Right now, Syria has a lot of indefinites, but I think Türkiye is going to hold the key to Syria,” the president-elect predicted. Türkiye shares its longest land border with Syria, over 900km, and had been a main backer of opposition groups aiming to topple Assad since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. Despite listing the jihadi HTS, which initiated the current unrest, as a terrorist organization, Ankara is thought to have significant influence over the group.

Türkiye also backs the Syrian National Army (SNA), which earlier this month launched its own offensive in the eastern part of the country, hoping to capitalize on the collapse of Syrian government forces. Days prior to Assad’s overthrow, Erdogan voiced support for the insurgency in Syria, urging the armed opposition to continue their march to Damascus. Since Assad’s ouster, Washington and Ankara, which both back various rebel groups in the region, have held talks on ways to stabilize the situation and counter the potential resurgence of Islamic State militants in Syria. At a meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan last week, the two agreed to continue working together on preventing terror groups from abusing the current instability in the country and on bringing peace to the region, starting with efforts to establish an interim government.

Read more …

“Telework and remote work are tools that have helped the federal government increase productivity and efficiency..”

That’s the exact opposite of what DOGE says.

• Trump Threatens To Fire Federal Employees Working From Home (JTN)

President-elect Donald Trump blasted federal “work from home” policies Monday, calling them “ridiculous” and stirring up pushback from federal employee unions. “If people don’t come back to work, come back into the office, they’re going to be dismissed,” Trump told reporters during a news conference at Mar-a-Lago. The issue has been thrust to the forefront in part by the incoming Trump administration’s emphasis on government efficiency, spearheaded by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. But the issue has also gained national attention because Biden administration officials like outgoing Social Security Administrator Martin O’Malley negotiated a deal with union leaders to entrench the policies, keeping telework in place for his 42,000 employees until 2029.

Everett Kelley, national president of the American Federation of Government Employees, the largest federal employee union, threatened legal action against the incoming Trump administration if the president-elect tries to upend previously bargained union deals that let federal employees work from home. “Collective bargaining agreements entered into by the federal government are binding and enforceable under the law,” Kelley said. “We trust the incoming administration will abide by their obligations to honor lawful union contracts. If they fail to do so, we will be prepared to enforce our rights.” According to the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, there are nearly 3 million federal employees. Kelley argued that the extent to which federal employees work from home has been exaggerated.

“Rumors of widespread federal telework and remote work are simply untrue,” Kelley said. “More than half of federal employees cannot telework at all because of the nature of their jobs, only ten percent of federal workers are remote, and those who have a hybrid arrangement spend over sixty percent of working hours in the office.” Critics have shot back saying that effectively means that 40% of federal work hours are remote. If you remove certain workers like post-office employees and maintenance workers from the equation, the percentage of federal remote work is much higher. In particular, workers in the federal agencies in and around Washington, D.C. have largely grown accustomed to at least partially working remote. Kelley argued the policies help the government recruit and keep “top talent.”

“Telework and remote work are tools that have helped the federal government increase productivity and efficiency, maintain continuity of operations, and increase disaster preparedness,” Kelley said in a statement Monday. “These policies also assist agencies across the government, including the Social Security Administration, in recruiting and retaining top talent.

Waiver

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No way that was an honest mistake. Career over.

• Trump Sues Des Moines Register, Pollster For Brazen Election Interference (ZH)

On Monday afternoon, President-elect Donald Trump told reporters at a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago Club in South Florida that his team was preparing to file a “major lawsuit” against the Des Moines Register and its top pollster, J. Ann Selzer for election interference and fraud over their final polling data in the days before the presidential election. Trump followed through on his word, as Fox News reports that his team filed a lawsuit against the Des Moines Register and Selzer overnight in Polk County, Iowa, under the Iowa Consumer Fraud Act and related provisions. The lawsuit seeks “accountability for brazen election interference committed by” the local paper and Selzer “in favor of now-defeated former Democrat candidate Kamala Harris through use of a leaked and manipulated Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted by Selzer and S&C and published by DMR and Gannett in the Des Moines Register on Nov. 2, 2024.”

The lawsuit also targets Gannett, the parent company of the Des Moines Register, which owns USA Today and several other local papers across the US. “Contrary to reality and defying credulity, defendants’ Harris Poll was published three days before Election Day and purported to show Harris leading President Trump in Iowa by three points; President Trump ultimately won Iowa by over thirteen points,” the filing stated. Selzer was once considered the “gold standard” of polling, but after Trump swept the state by a 13-point margin, winning the actual vote 56-43%, she later acknowledged her poll was a “big miss” and suggested that it might have “actually energized [d] and activated [d] Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to victory,” according to our previous report. Following the public opinion polling blunder, Selzer wrote in a guest column in the Des Moines Register just a little more than a week after the election that her days advising the paper’s famed Iowa Poll was over, and she would be “transitioning to other ventures and opportunities.”

Selzer’s exit—and now her legal troubles with Trump’s team—reflects a broader shift: trust in mainstream polling has plummeted to historic lows. Those accused of waging an information war on the minds of the people are now being held accountable. “The Harris Poll was no ‘miss’ but rather an attempt to influence the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election,” the lawsuit said, adding that “defendants and their cohorts in the Democrat Party hoped that the Harris Poll would create a false narrative of inevitability for Harris in the final week of the 2024 Presidential Election.” The era of misinformation and disinformation by the Democratic Party, propped up by fake news, fake polls, and a government-sponsored censorship complex (and billionaire-funded: Soros), has infuriated the American people. At the same time, prediction markets like Polymarket have emerged, which offer one of the best insights into electoral outcomes and signal a new tool in political forecasting.

The lawsuit noted that Selzer’s more than three-decade run in the industry has led to her retirement “in disgrace from polling less than two weeks after this embarrassing rout.” The lawyers argued that “left-wing pollsters have attempted to influence electoral outcomes through manipulated polls that have unacceptable error rates and are not grounded in widely accepted polling methodologies.” [..] The lawsuit Monday night comes days after far-left ABC News and its top anchor, George Stephanopoulos, reached a $15 million defamation suit with Trump. Trump also filed a lawsuit against far-left CBS News, demanding $10 billion in damages over “deceitful, deceptive manipulation of news” for the election interference surrounding Harris’ questionable interview in October.

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“Federal law criminalizes witness tampering of varying degrees, and subjects a defendant to as many as 20 years in prison..”

• House GOP Accuses Liz Cheney Of Tampering With J6 Witness (JTN)

The House Administration Oversight Subcommittee and its chairman Barry Loudermilk on Tuesday released an interim report on the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, concluding the attack was preventable and also asking for an investigation into former Rep. Liz Cheney for criminally tampering with a witness during the Democrat-led congressional inquiry of the tragedy. “Based on the evidence obtained by this Subcommittee, numerous federal laws were likely broken by Liz Cheney, the former Vice Chair of the January 6 Select Committee, and these violations should be investigated by the Federal Bureau of Investigation,” the report released by the House Administration Oversight Subcommittee and its chairman Barry Loudermilk stated.”Evidence uncovered by the Subcommittee revealed that former Congresswoman Liz Cheney tampered with at least one witness, Cassidy Hutchinson, by secretly communicating with Hutchinson without Hutchinson’s attorney’s knowledge.,” it added.

“This secret communication with a witness is improper and likely violates 18 U.S.C. 1512. Such action is outside the due functioning of the legislative process and therefore not protected by the Speech and Debate clause.” Federal law criminalizes witness tampering of varying degrees, and subjects a defendant to as many as 20 years in prison.The report also took direct aim at former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson, Cheney’s star witness at the nationally televised hearings, alleging that Cheney encouraged false testimony about a handwritten document and noting her sensational claim that former President Donald Trump tried to commandeer his presidential limousine that day to take it to the Capitol was directly refuted by the Secret Service.Loudermilk’s report suggested Cheney also bore responsibility for Hutchinson’s testimony.

“The Federal Bureau of Investigation must also investigate Representative Cheney for violating 18 U.S.C. 1622, which prohibits any person from procuring another person to commit perjury,” the report said. ”Based on the evidence obtained by this Subcommittee, Hutchinson committed perjury when she lied under oath to the Select Committee.”The report delivers a second bombshell, revealing Loudermilk’s team uncovered “evidence of collusion” between Special Counsel Jack Smith and the Democrats’ Jan. 6 committee led by Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., and Cheney. When Smith released a trove of documents in October that were used in his filings in the Trump case, present in the batch was an unredacted transcript from one Jan. 6 Select Committee interview with a witness.

“Given that the Select Committee did not archive, or otherwise destroy this transcript, and that the White House refused to provide an unredacted version to the Subcommittee, the only remaining explanation is that Special Counsel Smith received the unredacted version from one of the two institutions which did not cooperate fully with the Subcommittee,” Loudermilk’s committee concluded.

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“Biden’s pardon list has replaced the usual Inauguration Ball lists as the “must-have” item this year..”

• The Danger of White Knight Pardons (Turley)

There are growing indications that President Joe Biden is about to fundamentally change the use of presidential pardons by granting “prospective” or “preemptive” pardons to political allies. Despite repeated denials of President-elect Donald Trump that he is seeking retaliation against opponents and his statements that he wants “success [to be] my revenge,” Democratic politicians and pundits have called for up to thousands of such pardons. While there is little threat of any viable prosecution of figures like the members of the January 6th Committee, the use of “White Knight pardons” offers obvious political benefits. After many liberals predicted the imminent collapse of democracy and that opponents would be rounded up in mass by the Trump Administration, they are now contemplating the nightmare that democracy might survive and that there will be no mass arrests.

The next best thing to a convenient collapse of democracy is a claim that Biden’s series of preemptive pardons averted it. It is enough to preserve the narrative in the face of a stable constitutional system . Indeed, Biden’s pardon list has replaced the usual Inauguration Ball lists as the “must-have” item this year. Pardon envy is sweeping over the Beltway as politicians and pundits push to be included on the list of presumptive Trump enemies.The political stunt will come at a cost. Preemptive pardons could become the norm as presidents pardon whole categories of allies and even themselves to foreclose federal prosecutions. It can quickly become the norm in what I recently wrote about as our “age of rage.” It will give presidents cover to wipe away any threat of prosecution for friends, donors, and associates. This can include self-pardons issued as implied condemnations of their political opponents.

It could easily become the final act of every president to pardon himself and all of the members of his Administration. We would then have an effective immunity rule for outgoing parties in American politics. Ironically, there is even less need for such preemptive pardons after the Supreme Court recognized that presidents are immune for many decisions made during their presidencies. Likewise, members have robust constitutional protections for their work under Article I, as do journalists and pundits under the Constitution’s First Amendment. We have gone over two centuries without such blanket immunity. In my book The Indispensable Right, I discuss our periods of violent political strife and widespread arrests. Thomas Jefferson referred to John Adams’s Federalist government as “the reign of the witches.” Yet, even presidents in those poisonous times did not do what Joe Biden is now contemplating.

Moreover, presidential pardons have a checkered history, including presidents pardoning family members or political donors. Bill Clinton did both. Not surprisingly, Clinton last week attempted to add his own wife’s name to the sought-after Biden pardon list. He added, however, “I don’t think I should be giving public advice on the pardon power…It’s a very personal thing.” That is precisely the point. The power was not created to be used for “very personal things,” like pardoning your half-brother and a fugitive Democratic donor on your last day in office. Yet, despite that history, no president has seen fit to go as far as where Biden appears to be heading.

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“..as Big Tobacco began buying off the TV news more than 70 years ago, Big Pharma is doing that today..”

• An Open Letter To Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (AmG)

Dear Mr. Kennedy,

Of the many issues you will tackle as Secretary of Health and Human Services, we implore you to work with FCC Commissioner Brenden Carr and immediately put an end to pharmaceutical companies advertising prescription drugs on television. This should be one of your earliest moves in the Trump administration. Why is this so timely? The sheer amount of dollars being spent on TV advertising by “Big Pharma” should raise suspicion among those who care about accuracy in media and information being consumed by the public. It is an old trick for an industry to buy off the news media for favorable coverage. When evidence of the dangers of smoking cigarettes began to emerge in the 1950s, news organizations were reluctant to expose “Big Tobacco” because it was responsible for an abundance of media ad revenue. The same synergistic relationship exists today with “Big Pharma” and television news.

Similarly, as Big Tobacco began buying off the TV news more than 70 years ago, Big Pharma is doing that today. The incessant drumbeat of COVID boosters, RSV injections, and flu shot ads is run alongside news reporters covering up vaccine side effects, including increased cases of myocarditis, anaphylaxis, psychosis, and/or early death. Nowhere is this more evident than with Novo Nordisk A/S’s type 2 diabetes drug Ozempic. While this drug may offer benefits to the millions of Americans who suffer from type 2 diabetes (some surveys place the number of Americans afflicted with type 2 diabetes at nearly 10%, with more than 30% considered pre-diabetic), at what cost? If your insurance doesn’t cover Ozempic, your monthly cost will be nearly $1,000. And you will be “hooked” for life.

Concurrently, what about the shameless promotion of Ozempic as an aid for weight loss? Can you watch a program on the nightly news on one of the alphabet networks or cable news without seeing ads for Ozempic touting its benefits to lose weight? And what about the genre of late-night so-called comics like vax-shill Stephen Colbert? The late-night TV category is dying, with Colbert (CBS), Jimmy Fallon (NBC), and Jimmy Kimmel (ABC) suffering historic low ratings. If not propped up by “Big Pharma” ad dollars, will a ban on ads for prescription drugs be the final nail in their coffins? Let’s hope so, as all three ceased being funny years ago. We know you are already on the record as having intentions of outlawing Big Pharma ads for prescription drugs on television. Today, among high-income countries, only the U.S. and New Zealand allow for such advertising. Almost all other countries are fully knowledgeable of the conflict between ad dollars and news reporting.

The longer this obvious conflict persists, the more the public will be misled and lied to about the real dangers of prescription drugs and the intentions of Big Pharma to buy off the news media to hide these dangers. A ban on this type of advertising will go a long way toward keeping the news media honest—or perhaps putting the worst of them out of the misinformation business altogether. Among the many items on your agenda, once you take office, this is probably the easiest of them. Our broadcast news outlets operate under a license from the FCC and are obligated to serve the public interest at all times. Taking money from Big Pharma to cover up or lie about the potential damage the public will suffer through the use of their products cannot be tolerated any longer. We both applaud your passion to Make America Healthy Again. Count us in.

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PCR just keeps going. Little self-reflection.

• Will Putin Fight or Surrender? (Paul Craig Roberts)

In his meeting the other day with the Russian Defense Ministry Board, Putin discussed the accomplishments of the past year and measures needed to ensure Russia’s security from Washington’s aspirations for world dominance. “We see the US administration and the collective West relentlessly trying to preserve their dominance, pushing their rules on the global community and manipulating them as they see fit.” Washington, Putin said, is engaged “in an effort to weaken our country and inflict a strategic defeat.” That is true, but why is Putin helping Washington succeed? Putin complains about the growing instability and violence in the Middle East. Does he realize that he contributed to it by withdrawing Russia’s defense of Syria? Did Putin forget “seven countries in five years”? Did Putin forget “Greater Israel”? Did Putin forget Turkey’s ambition against the Kurds?

Putin complains about the West’s participation with Ukraine in the conflict with Russia. Why did Putin make this possible by dragging out a limited military operation for 3 years? How could Putin fail to understand that Washington would test the intervention waters step by step to see if there are any real red lines. The absence of red lines has reached the point of Washington and NATO firing missiles into Russia, and Putin, despite his warnings to the West, retaliates only against Ukraine. Indeed, Putin’s retaliations are measures that should have been conducted on the first day of Russia’s intervention in Donbas. Putin has prevented Russian military action that would have made it impossible for Kiev to continue the conflict. What purpose is served by dragging out the conflict? Certainly not the preservation of lives.

The Russian population is hurting not so much from the West’s sanctions as from Putin’s central bank director’s 21 percent interest rates. Sooner or later the population is going to blame the war for the economic deprivation, and support for a war without end will decline. The same central bank director left Russia’s central bank reserves where they could be stolen by Washington. I suspect the central bank director’s warnings that Russia cannot afford war is the reason the Russian military remains too small for effective deployment, thus forcing Russian reliance on nuclear weapons. The West has just imposed more sanctions on Russia, and Russia continues to supply energy to Poland and Romania, NATO members hosting US missile bases on their borders with Russia. It is extraordinary how the Russian government helps Russia’s enemies to work against Russia.

It is not only Putin who seems unable to get his mind around reality. The leader of the terrorist group HTS used by Turkey, Washington, and Israel fo overthrow Assad, Hayat Tahrir al-Sharaa, complains that Israel has no excuse for continuing military strikes on Syria. Apparently, al-Sharaa has never heard of “Greater Israel.” Israel is clearing the way for Syria’s absorption into “Greater Israel,” just as Turkey intends the absorption of the Kurdish area of Syria to become incorporated into Turkey. As Israeli strategist Oded Yinon wrote, the Muslim world is too disunited to stand as an obstacle to “Greater Israel.” Perhaps that is the reason Putin abandoned his ally. But by sacrificing Syria Putin has left the road open to Iran and Lebanon. If Iran becomes the mess that Washington has created elsewhere in the Muslim world, the Russian Federation will be open to infiltration by jihadists to cause disruption in Russia’s Muslim areas.

Meanwhile Washington continues to operate against Russia in the former Russian provinces of Georgia and Armenia. How long before there are American missile bases in Georgia and Armenia? It is unclear why US missile bases on Russia’s border with Ukraine are a reason for Russian military action, but not US missile bases on Russia’s borders with Poland and Romania. It was impossible for Putin to stand aside while the US created a Ukrainian army to destroy the Russian populations of Donbas. The world should appreciate that Putin has not attacked Russia’s tormenters outside of Ukraine. Putin has also accepted sanctions without adequate response. The question is whether Putin’s determination to avoid a larger war presents as weakness and indecision that encourages the West to further provocations that eventually lead to a wider war. The big question in the coming year is whether Putin surrenders or fights.

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“Peacekeeping missions are based on international law and require a peace settlement and a UN mandate..”

EU wants EU peacekeepers. But they’re a party to the war. Of course they deny that, but…

• Finland Warns Against Peacekeepers In Ukraine (RT)

EU countries should avoid making hasty decisions about sending a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine, Finnish President Alexander Stubb has warned. He was speaking at a defense cooperation summit in Tallinn, where the conflict between Moscow and Kiev was top of the agenda.Some EU leaders have previously floated the idea of a possible peacekeeping operation in Ukraine after peace with Russia is eventually achieved. According to Stubb, however, a peacekeeping operation is not currently a realistic option, as it could result in an escalation, and it would also require hundreds of thousands of troops. “We should not get ahead of ourselves,” Stubb warned before the start of the discussions on Tuesday, as quoted by Finnish news outlet Yle. Peacekeeping missions are based on international law and require a peace settlement and a UN mandate, he noted.

“The operation cannot be launched on a shaky foundation,” he added. According to the Finnish president, a peacekeeping mission would require at least 150,000 soldiers. “In rotation, that means three times that, or 450,000 peacekeepers per year. So perhaps this discussion has gone off the rails, so to speak,” he added. Stubb was speaking during a meeting of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF). The military group is made up of the Netherlands, Iceland, Great Britain, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. The latter five nations share a border with Russia and have been among the most outspoken critics of Moscow and its military operation in Ukraine.Before the meeting, Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur stated that “no option can be ruled out,” even before there is peace in Ukraine, according to Yle.

At an EU leaders’ summit on Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron plans to raise the issue of deploying a UN peacekeeping mission to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire and peace deal, various media outlets reported last week. The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, said earlier that the bloc was not considering sending peacekeepers to Ukraine as hostilities between Kiev and Moscow are far from over. Kremlin spokesman Dmitriy Peskov said on Monday that it was “premature” to discuss a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine because Kiev refuses to hold peace talks with Moscow.

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Are we sure Ukraine killed him? And not some NATO country? They seem to have had more reason.

• Slain Russian General Worked Fearlessly To Expose Western Crimes – Moscow (RT)

Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, who was assassinated in Moscow on Tuesday, had for years systematically exposed Western crimes involving chemical weapons and did so fearlessly, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has said. Kirillov, the commander of the Russian Radiological, Chemical, and Biological Defense Forces, was killed along with his aide by an explosion in southeastern Moscow in the early morning. A number of media outlets have since reported that the murder was carried out on the orders of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), which had labeled Kirillov as an “absolutely legitimate target” for assassination.

Writing on Kirillov’s passing, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said that throughout his career he had repeatedly exposed the crimes of the “Anglo-Americans” such as “NATO provocations with chemical weapons in Syria, Britain’s manipulations with prohibited chemical substances and provocations in Salisbury and Amesbury, the deadly activities of American biolabs in Ukraine, and much more.” “He worked fearlessly. He did not hide behind people’s backs,” Zakharova wrote. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who currently serves as deputy chairman of the national Security Council, also expressed his condolences to Kirillov’s colleagues, family, and friends, and stated that the attack in which he was killed was “the agony of the Bandera regime.”

“With its last strength, it is trying to justify its worthless existence before its Western masters, to prolong the war and death, to justify the catastrophic situation at the front. Realizing the inevitability of its military defeat, it is inflicting cowardly and vile blows in peaceful cities,” Medvedev said. State Duma Defense Committee chairman Andrey Kartapolov described Kirillov as a “worthy Russian general” and a “real officer,” stating that had done “a lot to bring the US to justice,” particularly with regards to Washington’s activities in setting up laboratories around the world, including in Ukraine.

“We caught them there, and Kirillov’s role in this is greater than anywhere else,” Kartapolov said. He added that Kirillov’s revelations have “caught too many people” and that he “wouldn’t be surprised” if figures outside of Kiev also had a hand in his assassination, including the son of US President Joe Biden, Hunter Biden. Kartapolov stressed that those who organized and carried out Kirillov’s murder will be found and punished, “whoever they are and wherever they are.” State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin also condemned Kirillov’s assassination, stating that it once again highlights “the criminal nature of the Kiev regime.” “It is a terrorist state headed by an illegitimate president – a Nazi. All those guilty must receive the punishment they deserve,” Volodin was quoted as saying by the Duma press service.

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Pick ’em off one by one.

• Which Western Politician Will Flee Their Sinking Ship Next? (Marsden)

I have a confession to make. I really suck at cooking. I have no idea what I’m doing in the kitchen. And my best efforts usually end with a trip to the ready-made meal section of the local grocery store. But that said, I know my limits. You won’t catch me trying to get a job at in Parisian fine dining, for example, or even at a local diner. But the people currently cooking up the Western establishment’s shared agenda? They’ll just burn down the whole kitchen, and then eject out. Or at least some of them will do the latter. Not nearly enough of them yet. But it seems to be a promising new trend in the absence of their inability to just stay out to begin with. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for a no-confidence vote against himself on Monday, officially asking the parliamentarians of the Bundestag whether they might wish to do him the honor of taking a foot to his arsch.

It’s basically a case of political suicide-by-cop. Scholz wanted them to put his current mandate out of its misery because he’s totally impotent, politically speaking. Why? Because the yellow light centrists of his traffic light coalition bailed on him and he no longer has the majority needed to ram things through parliament.All this came about because Scholz’s finance minister, Christian Lindner, from the centrist Free Democratic Party, decided back in November that he wasn’t interested in a career as a magician attempting to work miracles with Scholz’s spending priorities. Germany virtue-signaled itself right into economic devastation following along with EU sanctions to impress their girlfriend Vladimir Zelensky. Then Scholz told his finance minister to just lift his foot up off the debt brake a bit so he can go on another €15 billion ($15.7 billion) spending joyride for Ukraine.

And Lindner was like, nope, how about you just dust off some of those long-range Taurus missiles in the closet and give those to your girlfriend instead? Yeah, they’re dangerous, but they’re also just sitting there like an apartment exercise bike with laundry hanging off it, so it’s a win-win – well, except for that World War III risk. Scholz didn’t want to do that because it would mean babysitting Kiev so it didn’t start a third world war against Russia. It would also mean sending German troops to Ukraine so Zelensky could sit on their lap and pretend to drive the Tauruses. And it’s never the toddler who gets blamed for those accidents. So Scholz and Lindner had a falling out over a month ago that ultimately led to a breakup, with Lindner and his yellow light centrists walking away from Scholz’s coalition table like a teenaged clique in the school cafeteria.

German lawmakers welcomed the opportunity to kick Scholz in the lederhosen and out of the Biergarten. One down, one more to go. Because next up (probably) is Christian Democrat leader Friedrich Merz, currently topping the polls ahead of an expected February election. He seems keen on giving Washington and Brussels even more power over German decision-making. Yeah, maybe Washington can advise Berlin on nail placement for its economic coffin, too? As if that’s really Germany’s big issue right now – that it wasn’t sycophantic enough under Scholz, with Merz saying how it was “embarrassing how Scholz acted in the European Union.” Scholz shrugged off Nord Stream being blown up, putting the German economy at the mercy of pricy American gas, and Merz doesn’t think Scholz was enough of a team player?

Scholz apparently just wanted to keep feeding more taxpayer cash into the German military industrial complex under the pretext of helping Ukraine, but doesn’t seem too keen on actual war. But Merz isn’t even capable of understanding how that grift works, apparently. Sounds promising.Meanwhile, across the pond in Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, bailed right out of the job, just hours before she was set to deliver the latest budget statement. That’s always a good sign. Kind of like calling in sick before a big test that you know you’re about to fail. The $62 billion deficit that was set to be announced – $22 billion more than Freeland’s projected target – might have had something to do with it.

She says that she was pushed out first, though, writing in her resignation letter to Trudeau, “On Friday, you told me you no longer want me to serve as your Finance Minister and offered me another position in the cabinet.” Freeland says that she rejected “costly political gimmicks” like sales tax holidays and onetime cash handouts, presumably, which she herself had spent months relentlessly promoting. She makes it sound like she was a sudden voice of reason, and referred to “strenuous efforts this fall to manage our spending in ways that will give us the flexibility we will need to meet the serious challenges presented by the United States.”

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“I’m going to find out who’s making these accusations and nuke them.”

• Musk Accuses ‘Deep State Traitors’ Of Targeting Him (RT)

US federal agencies have initiated at least three reviews into whether Elon Musk and his rocket company, SpaceX, complied with security reporting protocols designed to safeguard state secrets, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke with the New York Times. Elon Musk currently holds a top-secret security clearance at SpaceX, the highest level granted by the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency. This clearance allows him access to highly sensitive classified information, including advanced US military technology, but he is required to report details of his private life under the “continuous vetting” rules. The investigations were triggered by alleged repeated failures to report crucial details about Musk’s travel and other activities, including meetings with foreign leaders, the NYT reported on Tuesday.

SpaceX employees responsible for ensuring compliance have allegedly raised concerns about lax reporting practices within the company since at least 2021. But according to the publication, complaints reached a “tipping point” following Musk’s public support for President-elect Donald Trump and his growing potential “influence” in the upcoming US administration. ”Deep state traitors are coming after me, using their paid shills in legacy media. I prefer not to start fights, but I do end them…” Musk wrote on X on Tuesday, responding to the NYT allegations. The Defense Department’s Office of Inspector General opened its review this year, while the Air Force and the Pentagon’s Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security began separate investigations last month, the NYT reported. The agencies have declined to officially confirm or deny the existence of these reviews and have not accused the South African billionaire of disclosing classified material.

Last month, Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat from New Hampshire and a member of the Senate Committees on Armed Services and Foreign Relations, expressed concern about Musk’s potential to inadvertently disclose sensitive information. In a letter to the Pentagon Inspector General and the US Attorney General, Shaheen and Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island cited an October article in the Wall Street Journal claiming that Musk had multiple conversations with Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin in 2022. The newspaper relied on anonymous sources, and provided no evidence to support the assertions. Musk has dismissed those claims, referring to the senators as “puppets” and questioning who was behind the letter. “Who actually wrote this and made those knuckleheads sign it?” he wrote on X at the time. ”There will be consequences for those who pushed foreign interference hoaxes,” he vowed last month, threatening to take action against officials and politicians making baseless accusations. “I’m going to find out who’s making these accusations and nuke them.”

The allegations of links between Musk and Russia echo similar accusations leveled against Donald Trump during his first term in office. Those widespread claims, fueled by media reports and inconclusive investigations, were used to undermine his presidency but were later found to be without basis. The Kremlin has also denied claims that Musk frequently communicated with Putin, calling the allegations another ingredient “tossed into” the US political struggles. Musk has actively supported the president-elect and has become an increasingly influential figure among his team. Trump appointed Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy to head the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a new initiative tasked with reducing government waste and streamlining the federal bureaucracy.

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“..diversity and inclusion” trumps people’s lives.

• Boeing’s Failed Plea Deal: What Happens Next (ET)

Months after the Department of Justice (DOJ) offered Boeing a plea deal to avoid criminal fraud charges, a U.S. judge threw a curveball in the case, rejecting the deal after taking issue with a “diversity and inclusion” provision in selecting a monitor to supervise the company’s safety practices, along with how the court would participate in that process.The United States charged Boeing with fraud on Jan. 7, 2021, following the 2018 and 2019 737 MAX 8 crashes, which killed all 346 people onboard both flights. The DOJ accused the aerospace company of deliberately hiding its Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System software, which caused both planes to stall midair and fall to the ground, from Federal Aviation Administration regulators.To avoid criminal charges, the DOJ offered Boeing a deferred prosecution agreement: a criminal settlement that required the plane manufacturer to pay a total of $2.5 billion in damages, including a $243.6 million penalty and a $500 million fund to compensate families of the 737 Max crash victims.

Boeing had to remain in compliance for three years after the agreement was signed—which ended on Jan. 7. But, two days prior, a door panel ripped off an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 9 flight midair, changing the company’s fortunes overnight and thrusting its safety practices back into public scrutiny. After the DOJ wrote in a May 14 court filing that Boeing had violated the criminal settlement, which the company denied, Boeing then pleaded guilty to defrauding the United States over the 737 MAX 8 crashes. The plea deal would have required Boeing to pay an additional $243.6 million fine, invest $455 million into safety and compliance programs, and submit to three years of independent monitoring over its safety and quality control. Now that U.S. District Judge Reed O’Connor has rejected the deal, the aerospace giant faces several possible outcomes, aside from appealing the ruling, aviation and legal experts told The Epoch Times.

“[The DOJ] can sit down with Boeing and rework the plea deal so that the monitor selection process is more acceptable to the court. Or they can take Boeing to trial on the conspiracy charge,” Erin Applebaum, a partner at Kreindler & Kreindler LLP, which represents 34 families who lost loved ones on Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302, told The Epoch Times. “I have no doubt that the first option is what will happen. I fully expect that DOJ and Boeing will rewrite the plea so that its terms are more favorable to the court.” O’Connor wrote in a Dec. 5 order that he had concerns about a diversity and inclusion provision in Boeing’s plea deal with the DOJ. He targeted a single sentence in the plea agreement that referenced the DOJ’s diversity policy in selecting an independent monitor to monitor Boeing’s safety compliance practices.

“In a case of this magnitude, it is in the utmost interest of justice that the public is confident this monitor selection is done based solely on competency,” O’Connor wrote. “The parties’ DEI efforts only serve to undermine this confidence in the Government and Boeing’s ethics and anti-fraud efforts.” Shawn Pruchnicki, aviation safety expert and assistant professor at Ohio State University’s Center for Aviation Studies, said the monitor had an “amazingly important task” of supervising the company’s safety compliance practices. “I stand fully behind [diversity], but I think many of us in aerospace and certainly in aviation, just like we do on the flight deck … we want someone who is qualified, that can meet the same requirements that we get,” Pruchnicki told The Epoch Times.

Applebaum said she and the victims’ families are very appreciative of the court’s mandating that the DOJ and Boeing improve the monitor selection process. “Though there is still much work to be done, the imposition of a highly qualified monitor who will hold Boeing’s feet to the fire is a good first step towards strengthening aviation safety and ensuring that there are no more Boeing crashes,” she said. In rejecting the deal, O’Connor also criticized how the DOJ positioned the court in the monitor selection process. “At this point, the public interest requires the Court to step in,” he wrote in his order. “Marginalizing the Court in the selection and monitoring of the independent monitor as the plea agreement does undermines public confidence in Boeing’s probation, fails to promote respect for the law, and is therefore not in the public interest.”

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Social media.

• World Gripped By Mental Health ‘Pandemic’ – FT (RT)

A mental health crisis is unfolding in workplaces worldwide, with financial services emerging among the hardest-hit sectors, the Financial Times reported on Monday, citing recent research. Burnout, depression, and anxiety are the main issues that significantly undermine productivity, economists, business leaders, and health advocates have warned. A survey by global consultancy firm Deloitte revealed that 17% of finance and insurance workers in the UK experience exhaustion, declining performance, and mental distancing, compared to a 12% average across all sectors. The report noted that the annual cost of poor mental health per employee in financial services amounts to £5,379, more than double that in any of the 14 other industries examined.

Startling statistics by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO) show that around 12 billion work days are lost annually to depression and anxiety, costing the global economy an estimated $1 trillion each year. “The scale of the problem is hugely worrying, particularly among young people,” Kate Pickett, professor of epidemiology at York University, told the FT. “The increase has been so huge that there is something real going on,” she said, dismissing suggestions that the rise in reported cases is merely due to greater awareness.

Researchers from Deloitte said the wellbeing of young people is particularly alarming, with one in five UK children having a probable mental health disorder in 2023, compared to one in nine in 2017. Among the factors contributing to the global “mental health pandemic” are the cost-of-living crisis and the pervasive use of social media, according to the researchers. The decline in mental health was exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, during which global depression cases surged by 25% between 2020 and 2021, according to the WHO. The organization said that mental health levels have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, with some individuals continuing to experience a “massive hangover from the pandemic.”

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Elon work

 

 

Andreessen

 

 

Eva

 

 

Betrayal

 

 

Squirrel

 

 

Baby elephant

 

 

 

 

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Debt Rattle April 1 2023

Apr 012023
 
 April 1, 2023  Posted by at 9:00 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , ,  58 Responses »


Willem de Kooning Door to the river 1960

 

• The Capital of the Multipolar World: A Moscow Diary (Pepe Escobar)
• US Urges Americans To Leave Russia ‘Immediately’ (RT)
• Nebenzya: Without Russia the UN Will Lose Its Meaning (TASS)
• ICC’s Putin Arrest Warrant Based On US-funded Report That Debunked Itself (GZ)
• Europe Needs Russia To Survive – Lukashenko (RT)
• China’s Xi Is Right: Changes Not Seen For A Century (Lukyanov)
• From Iraq War To Arming Ukraine. Where Will This Lead? (Sushenstov)
• Comparing Beijing, Minsk Peace Plans In Ukraine Inappropriate – Kremlin (TASS)
• West Can’t Sweep Nord Stream Sabotage Under The Carpet – Diplomat (TASS)
• Russian Needs Major Effort In Bakhmut Despite Heavy Kiev Losses – Wagner (TASS)
• EU Underestimates Russian Economic Capacity – Orban (RT)
• Norway’s Wealth Fund Unable To Withdraw Funds From Russia (RT)
• ‘Peacekeepers’ Deployed To Ukraine Without Russia’s Consent – Medvedev (TASS)
• Did They Light Up a Cigarette Afterward? (Kunstler)
• Manhattan Assistant DA Nukes Twitter Account After Anti-Trump Bias Exposed (ZH)
• The Trump Indictment: Making History in the Worst Possible Way (Turley)
• Stirrings of Euro Eco-rebellion (Higgie)

 

 

 

 

Dowd

 

 

“Gates, the WHO, a ton of these universities: they’re all talking about including mRNA vaccinations as part of the food. They’re gonna modify the genes of these foods to make them mRNA vaccines,” warned attorney @TomRenz. Missouri HB 1169 seeks to counter such an effort. It’s been described as “one of the most controversial bills in history,” but all it is – is a labeling bill. If a food product is a gene therapy product, you have every right to know. So, if this bill gets passed, it’s a major victory not just for our well-being — but also for discovery, too.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1641990297142829056

 

 

 

 

Trump team
https://twitter.com/i/status/1641827495426113536

 

 

Tucker Trump
https://twitter.com/i/status/1641973692740833281

 

 

Beck
https://twitter.com/i/status/1641603632100524035

 

 

 

 

Ursula

 

 

Kneissl

 

 

 

 

 

 

Western media refuse to report on the major changes happening. How does that serve their audience?

• The Capital of the Multipolar World: A Moscow Diary (Pepe Escobar)

How sharp was good ol’ Lenin, prime modernist, when he mused, “there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”. This global nomad now addressing you has enjoyed the privilege of spending four astonishing weeks in Moscow at the heart of an historical crossroads – culminating with the Putin-Xi geopolitical game-changing summit at the Kremlin. [..] The initial gut feeling the day I arrived, after a seven-hour walk under snow flurries, was confirmed: this is the capital of the multipolar world. I saw it among the West Asians at the Valdai. I saw it talking to visiting Iranians, Turks and Chinese. I saw it when over 40 African delegations took over the whole area around the Duma – the day Xi arrived in town. I saw it throughout the reception across the Global South to what Xi and Putin are proposing to the overwhelming majority of the planet.

In Moscow you feel no crisis. No effects of sanctions. No unemployment. No homeless people in the streets. Minimal inflation. Import substitution in all areas, especially agriculture, has been a resounding success. Supermarkets have everything – and more – compared to the West. There’s an abundance of first-rate restaurants. You can buy a Bentley or a Loro Pianna cashmere coat you can’t even find in Italy. We laughed about it chatting with managers at the TSUM department store. At the BiblioGlobus bookstore, one of them told me, “We are the Resistance.”

By the way, I had the honor to deliver a talk on the war in Ukraine at the coolest bookshop in town, Bunker, mediated by my dear friend, immensely knowledgeable Dima Babich. A huge responsibility. Especially because Vladimir L. was in the audience. He’s Ukrainian, and spent 8 years, up to 2022, telling it like it really was to Russian radio, until he managed to leave – after being held at gunpoint – using an internal Ukrainian passport. Later we went to a Czech beer hall where he detailed his extraordinary story. In Moscow, their toxic ghosts are always lurking in the background. Yet one cannot but feel sorry for the psycho Straussian neocons and neoliberal-cons who now barely qualify as Zbig “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski’s puny orphans.

In the late 1990s, Brzezinski pontificated that, “Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical center because its very existence as an independent state helps transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.” With or without a demilitarized and denazified Ukraine, Russia has already changed the narrative. This is not about becoming a Eurasian empire again. This is about leading the long, complex process of Eurasia integration – already in effect – in parallel to supporting true, sovereign independence across the Global South.

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This is hilarious. Blinken and Jean-Pierre tell everyone to “depart immediately”, and then “National Security Council spokesperson” Kirby “explained Washington was not actually calling upon all Americans to literally leave Russia and was not encouraging news outlets to withdraw their correspondents from the country.”

Leave, but not literally?! Do note Russia says they caught Gershkovich “red-handed”…

• US Urges Americans To Leave Russia ‘Immediately’ (RT)

Washington has called upon Americans who are traveling to or residing in Russia to leave the country “immediately” in the aftermath of the arrest of Wall Street Journal (WSJ) correspondent Evan Gershkovich. While Moscow said he was caught “red-handed” trying to obtain state secrets, the US has condemned the arrest as an assault on “press freedom.” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington was “deeply concerned” about the development, adding that “in the strongest possible terms, we condemn the Kremlin’s continued attempts to intimidate, repress, and punish journalists and civil society voices.”

“We reiterate our strong warnings about the danger posed to US citizens inside the Russian Federation. US citizens residing or traveling in Russia should depart immediately,” the top diplomat said in a statement. A similar message was conveyed by the White House, with Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stating that the “targeting of American citizens by the Russian government is unacceptable.” “We also condemn the Russian government’s continued targeting and repression of journalists and freedom of the press,” she added, urging Americans to “heed the US government’s warning to not travel to Russia” or leave should they happen to already be in the country.

The call was somewhat watered down by US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby, who explained Washington was not actually calling upon all Americans to literally leave Russia and was not encouraging news outlets to withdraw their correspondents from the country. Gershkovich, a WSJ correspondent who covers news from Russia, Ukraine, and the former USSR, was detained in the city of Ekaterinburg on suspicion of espionage, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) announced earlier in the day. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the journalist was caught “red-handed” while trying to obtain Russian state secrets.

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“Apparently, the collective West’s thinking is that children, in particular, orphans, are better left in the war zone.”

• Nebenzya: Without Russia the UN Will Lose Its Meaning (TASS)

Will the informal meeting of the UN Security Council on the “Arria formula” on children evacuated from the Ukrainian conflict zone touch upon the issue of their return, as you mentioned at the press conference? The “Arria formula” meeting is designed to bring to the international community first-hand information about evacuated children from the war zone in Donbass and Ukraine and dispel the false narrative spread by the Western media about the alleged “abductions” of children from Ukraine and attempts to “destroy their identity.” I would like to emphasize once again that we are talking about evacuation from the war zone in full compliance with the obligations under International Humanitarian Law, as well as the Convention on the Rights of the Child. Apparently, the collective West’s thinking is that children, in particular, orphans, are better left in the war zone.

From the beginning of the special military operation to the present, millions of people have been evacuated in this way, including children, who in the overwhelming majority of cases arrived on the territory of Russia with their parents, guardians and trustees. Only a small number of evacuated children were in institutions for orphans and children left without parental care. Children who were pupils at institutions located within the administrative boundaries of the DPR and LPR at the time of recognition of their independence by the Russian Federation were transferred under guardianship. Great attention was paid to the placement of minors in the families of blood relatives living in Russia. The Westerners’ use of the term “adoption” in this context is deliberately misleading. In reality, we are talking about temporary preliminary guardianship or temporary guardianship.

The main goal is for children to be in families, not orphanages. This form was chosen specifically taking into account the potential reunification of minors with their blood relatives, if any are found. The Russian side does not prevent children from maintaining contact and communication with their relatives and friends, regardless of their place of residence. To simplify the reunification process, parents can seek help finding their child directly from the office of the Russian Commissioner for Children’s Rights. To this day, with the participation of the Commissioner for Children’s Rights, 15 children from 8 families have already been reunited with their relatives. We have held a number of meetings with representatives of the Regional Delegation of the International Committee of the Red Cross in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, who also decided to facilitate the reunification of children with parents outside the Russian Federation and Ukraine (in Poland, Portugal and Norway), within the framework of the organization’s mandate.

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Jeremy Loffredo and Max Blumenthal for the Grayzone.

• ICC’s Putin Arrest Warrant Based On US-funded Report That Debunked Itself (GZ)

On March 17, the Prosecutor General of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, introduced an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Commissioner for Children’s Rights, Maria Llova-Belova. The warrant, which accused Putin and Lolva-Belova of conducting the “unlawful deportation” of Ukrainian children to a “network of camps” across the Russian Federation, inspired a wave of incendiary commentary in the West. US Sen. Lindsey Graham, perhaps the most aggressive cheerleader in Congress for war with Russia, proclaimed: “The ICC has an arrest warrant for Putin because he has organized the kidnapping of at least 16,000 Ukrainian children from their families and sent them to Russia. It is exactly what Hitler did in World War II.” CNN’s Fareed Zakaria echoed Graham, declaring the ICC warrant revealed that Putin “is in fact following parts of Hitler’s playbook.”

The ICC prosecutor appeared to have based his arrest warrant on research produced by Yale University’s Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL). Yale HRL’s work was funded and guided by the State Department’s Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, an entity the Biden administration established in May 2022 to advance the prosecution of Russian officials. During an interview with CNN’s Anderson Cooper, Yale HRL’s executive director, Nathaniel Raymond, claimed his report provided proof that “thousands of children are in a hostage situation.” Invoking the Holocaust, Raymond asserted, “We are dealing with the largest network of children camps seen in the 21st century.”

Yet in an interview with Jeremy Loffredo, the co-author of this report, and in his own paper for Yale HRL, Raymond contradicted many of the bombastic claims he made to the media about child hostages. During a phone conversation with Loffredo, Raymond acknowledged that “a large amount” of the camps his team investigated were “primarily cultural education – like, I would say, teddy bear.” Yale HRL’s report similarly acknowledges that most of the camps it profiled provided free recreational programs for disadvantaged youth whose parents sought “to protect their children from ongoing fighting” and “ensure they had nutritious food of the sort unavailable where they live.” Nearly all of the campers returned home in a timely manner after attending with the consent of their parents, according to the paper. The State Department-funded report further concedes that it found “no documentation of child mistreatment.”

Yale HRL based its research entirely on Maxar satellite data, Telegram postings, and Russian media reports, relying on Google translate to interpret them and at times misrepresented the articles in its citations. The State Department-funded unit conceded that it performed no field research for its paper, stating that it “does not conduct ground-level investigations and therefore did not request access to the camps.” Unlike the Yale investigators who inspired the ICC’s arrest warrant, Loffredo gained unfettered access to a Russian government camp in Moscow that houses youth from the war-torn Donbas region. Though it is precisely the kind of center that Yale HRL – and by extension, the ICC – have portrayed as a “re-education camp” for Ukrainian child hostages, he found a hotel full of happy campers receiving free classical music lessons in their native Russian language from first-class instructors – a “teddy bear,” as Raymond called it.

At The Donbas Express music camp located just outside of Moscow, youth told Loffredo they were grateful to have found refuge from the Ukrainian army’s years-long campaign of shelling and besiegement of their homeland. By fleeing the war in Donbas, these children had escaped a nightmarish military conflict for which Yale HRL and the ICC have demonstrated little to no concern.

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The UN needs Russia, and Europe needs Russia.

• Europe Needs Russia To Survive – Lukashenko (RT)

The world is currently witnessing “the destruction of Europe,”Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told the national parliament in an annual address on Friday. The continent is losing its independence because Western nations are turning into US satellites, the Belarusian leader believes. Only uniting with Moscow could stop that, he said. “The policy of the European Union, both foreign and internal, has become totally subordinated to US interests,” Lukashenko said, as he accused European leaders of lacking the political will to make their nations truly independent in international affairs. According to Lukashenko, the US has long been pursuing a policy of economic suppression against the EU. The emergence of Europe’s own competitive currency, the euro, has prompted the US to start “suffocating” its “subjects,” he stated.

Washington is also using the ongoing conflict in Ukraine to “stall” Europe, the Belarusian president added. The only way out for Europe is to join forces with Russia, Lukashenko said. “Europe can survive only together with us, primarily with Russia,” he told the lawmakers. “If Russia and Europe unite, it will be a powerhouse no one can beat.” The statements were made as Russia unveiled its revised foreign policy concept. The document, which outlines the nation’s strategic priorities, called the “anti-Russian policy” of the US a major threat to international peace. At the same time, Moscow maintained that it did not consider Western nations to be adversaries and was ready for dialogue and cooperation on the basis of mutual respect.

The developments came amid the ongoing military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in which the EU followed the US in supporting Kiev with both military and financial aid while slapping Moscow with unprecedented sanctions. The EU has also tried to get rid of Russian oil and gas imports, which has negatively impacted European nations that were previously heavily dependent on Russian energy imports, like Germany. Although the German government announced in January that the country would narrowly avoid a recession this year, credit ratings agency Fitch predicted earlier this month that the German economy would enter recession by late 2023.

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“We will take our cue from Xi, who sees the changes taking place as a sign of necessary renewal. And we will manage the costs somehow.”

• China’s Xi Is Right: Changes Not Seen For A Century (Lukyanov)

The second half of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty-first have been very comfortable times for the world as a whole. In terms of the overall geopolitical arrangement, we saw first a rather strong balance based on bipolar confrontation, then a relatively stable hegemony. But there has also been progress in the social and economic senses. Many positive changes took place after the Second World War. The welfare state model spread across most of Europe, and even the United States, with its more modest traditions in this sphere, made great strides. Similar changes also took place on the other side of the Iron Curtain, with a focus on improving living standards and consumer diversity added to the traditional priorities of defence. In the Third World, as colonial possessions were disappearing there was an enthusiasm for freedom and a belief in the future. Even if many of the new states carried little heft.

The end of the Cold War brought with it new expectations. The ‘free world’ enjoyed a ‘peace dividend’ (reduced military spending) and the opportunity to extend its economic expansion into previously closed areas. The former socialist countries took advantage of the opening up in every way they could and – at least for individuals – there were more opportunities than before. This was often to the detriment of state capacity, but it was believed that this was the general trend – the individual was more important. Eventually, the former Third World tried to take advantage of both. Many countries in Asia, for example, have benefited greatly from globalization. Meanwhile, a lot of people from states which have underachieved have chosen to move to wealthier locations.

Both periods had one thing in common – a widespread feeling that tomorrow would be better than yesterday. However, now, just like that, it’s over. At present, it’s commonplace to accuse political elites of unprofessionalism and bad governance. Without making excuses for individual politicians, the current generation – which grew up in these very favourable conditions – has had to deal with shifts of a tectonic nature. The exhaustion of the previous financial model of the capitalist economy, the communications revolution (one of the main results of which is the mental divide between the mature and the young), technological change with inevitable consequences for the labour market, an ageing population in the developed countries, and a rejuvenation in previously troubled states is creating a completely different international environment.

Moreover, the interconnectedness of the planet does not allow anyone to isolate themselves from the general instability, which spills over national borders in various forms. Moreover, as was the case a century ago, the growth of socio-political activism among the masses is leading to the radicalization of political groups. And with traditional parties and ideologies in deep crisis, radicalization can take quite archaic forms. We will take our cue from Xi, who sees the changes taking place as a sign of necessary renewal. And we will manage the costs somehow.

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“America at the Apex.”

• From Iraq War To Arming Ukraine. Where Will This Lead? (Sushenstov)

This year’s twentieth anniversary of the illegal Iraq invasion paradoxically coincided with major international events. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, was in Moscow on the day, while a Russia-Africa Parliamentary Forum opened at the same time. In 2003, at the height of its power, the US proclaimed its “unipolar moment” in which it would dominate unchallenged, needing no allies and tolerating no objections from adversaries. History, it was believed, had a single purpose, and they would stop at nothing to achieve it. Indeed, American military, political and economic dominance seemed total at the time, echoing the sentiments of Henry Kissinger, who a few years earlier had written that “America at the Apex.”

Twenty years later, we are witnessing the flowering of multi-polarity: in Moscow, the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China talking to the Russian President, two countries contributing to a change the world has not seen in a hundred years. This transience of world history shows how quickly historical cycles change, but it is also important that the US itself, through its actions in different parts of the world, is accelerating its course. One of the most important strategic mistakes made by Washington was the invasion of Iraq. Based on a false pretext and deliberately misleading the international community, it led to a series of serious war crimes, a catastrophic civil war, the shattering of Iraqi statehood and significant repercussions for the entire Middle East.

Just a few years of American presence in Iraq resulted in huge numbers civilian deaths, indiscriminate use of force, and the destruction of several cities, including Mosul. During the evacuation of the Russian embassy during the 2003 US invasion, a convoy of diplomats came under US fire and several were injured. US private military contractors, who at one point had the same presence in the country as official troops, committed a number of war crimes. The abuse of prisoners by the US military at Abu Ghraib prison near Baghdad has been well documented. When the International Criminal Court raised the question of the responsibility of American citizens being charged over offenses in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US responded by saying that it would prosecute the judges who raised the issue and that they should withdraw their initiatives immediately. Arguably the greatest crime of the US in Iraq has been to create a civil war that has resulted in a terrible number of casualties with estimates ranging from 600,000 to one million.

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“..a number of provisions of China’s plan were unlikely to materialize right away, as Kiev was unable to disobey the West.”

• Comparing Beijing, Minsk Peace Plans In Ukraine Inappropriate – Kremlin (TASS)

It will be inappropriate to compare the two sets of ideas for a peace settlement in Ukraine, proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the media on Friday. “We believe it will be hardly appropriate to compare these two sets of ideas, I mean the plan that was voiced by [Chinese] President Xi [Jinping] and the one that [Belarusian] President Alexander] Lukashenko has just mentioned,” the Kremlin spokesman said. He also noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin had discussed with Xi the plan proposed by China and some of its individual provisions. At the same time, according to Peskov, a number of provisions of China’s plan were unlikely to materialize right away, as Kiev was unable to disobey the West.

“The plan [peace plan proposed by China] has not been put on hold, but there are certain provisions that, so to say, cannot be implemented for now due to the inability of the Ukrainian side to disobey its patrons, its commanders,” Peskov said. “These commanders, as we know, are not in Kiev. They insist that the war should continue,” he added. On March 20-22, Xi Jinping paid a state visit to Moscow. Among other things he discussed with Russian President Vladimir Putin China’s plan for a peace settlement in Ukraine. The Russian leader said afterwards that many of the provisions of that plan were in line with Russia’s own approaches and could be used as the basis for a peace settlement, when the West and Kiev were ready for it.

Earlier on Friday, Lukashenko, in his address to the people and parliament of Belarus, called for declaring truce in Ukraine “without the right to move and regroup troops on both sides and without the right to move weapons and ammunition, manpower and equipment.” Lukashenko explained that in such a situation, “if the West once again tries to use the pause to deceitfully strengthen its positions, Russia will be obliged to use the entire strength of its military-industrial complex and the army to prevent an escalation of the conflict.”

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Nebenzya comes to the front. Yet another erudite spokesman.

• West Can’t Sweep Nord Stream Sabotage Under The Carpet – Diplomat (TASS)

The West will not be able to “sweep under the carpet” the topic of sabotage on the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines, Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya said in an exclusive interview with TASS. Russia will take the chair of the UN Security Council in April. According to the diplomat, when voting on March 27 in the UN Security Council on a draft resolution on the establishment of an international commission to investigate the circumstances of sabotage, the United States and its allies “preferred to hide behind the “front” of convenient national investigations in Germany, Denmark and Sweden.” “The tactics of our Western colleagues do not surprise us – after all, as we once again became convinced from the recent investigation of the autoritative American journalist Seymour Hersh, all the evidence points to who is behind the explosions on the Nord Stream,” Nebenzya said.

“The behavior of the United States and Western countries during the discussion of this topic at the Council platform, including the eloquent silence of the American delegates in response to the reminder of the threats against the gas pipeline from the American leadership, only reinforces these suspicions. But unfortunately for their Western colleagues they will not be able to “sweep under the carpet” this topic. We will continue to strive to ensure that the true circumstances of what happened are established, and all those responsible are punished,” the diplomat stressed.

Nebenzya noted that during the discussion of this initiative, Russia’s representatives showed “the most flexible and responsible approach, and a balanced text was put to a vote, taking into account the concerns expressed by states.” “Its adoption was supported by such major players as China and Brazil. However, the United States and its allies, of course, did not come out in favor,” the diplomat stated. He noted that “investigations in Germany, Denmark and Sweden, whose objectivity is questionable” for Russia “given that the authorities of these countries, without any clear reason, refused to cooperate” with the Russian competent authorities.

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The fields are mud. Russia is not in a hurry.

• Russian Needs Major Effort In Bakhmut Despite Heavy Kiev Losses – Wagner (TASS)

The Ukrainian military is suffering serious casualties in Artyomovsk (called Bakhmut in Ukraine) but Russian troops still have to take enormous efforts in that area, Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner private military company, said on Friday. “No, the Ukrainian army is not fleeing anywhere. The Ukrainian army is engaged in bloody battles and is defending Artyomovsk at the expense of serious casualties,” the Wagner press office quoted Prigozhin as saying on its Telegram channel. “Another important aspect that should be mentioned is the need to hold the flanks,” he stressed. “Today we need to concentrate efforts in the city because this is an enormous amount of combat work to do. The flanks should not let us down and allied units should hold them,” Prigozhin said.

Russian forces “are moving forward and taking every building, every building entrance and every garage between buildings,” he said. “In Bakhmut, there are about 800 high-rise buildings. If we tell about each [building] entrance, you will be tired of hearing it. When we take Bakhmut, then we will talk about that,” the Wagner founder said. Artyomovsk is located on the Kiev-controlled part of the Donetsk People’s Republic and is a major transportation hub for the Ukrainian army’s supplies in Donbass. Fierce fighting for the city is underway.

Yan Gagin, military-political expert and adviser to the acting head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), said on March 22 that the city had been practically sealed off by Russian forces and all approaches to Artyomovsk were under Russian artillery control. He earlier said that Russian forces controlled about 70% of the city. Acting DPR Head Denis Pushilin has repeatedly said that there is no evidence of the Ukrainian army’s plans to leave Artyomovsk. Meanwhile, Kiev claims that the city’s defense will be bolstered. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky earlier said that Ukrainian troops would not surrender Artyomovsk and would fight for it as long as they could.

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“Russia’s foreign trade grew by more than 8% last year, while inflation is expected at around 4% this year. This comes as “other Europeans” are trying “to convince everyone of the imminent collapse of the Russian economy..”

• EU Underestimates Russian Economic Capacity – Orban (RT)

Western countries are making a mistake by underestimating Russia’s ability to adapt to sanctions, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated on Friday. According to Orban, Moscow demonstrated it could adjust its economy to restrictions following the first wave of Western sanctions, introduced after Crimea voted to secede from Ukraine and to reunify with Russia. “I remember well that in 2015 we exported a lot of food products to Russia…In three years, Russia has built its agriculture and food industry to such an extent that if Hungary wanted to export food there today, it would either not work or be much more difficult than before the imposition of sanctions,” the politician told Kossuth Radio.

The Russian economy has shown its resilience to sanctions and “underestimating” the ability of a country as “huge” as Russia to adapt to restrictions is a “fatal mistake,” Orban added. The Hungarian premier is a vocal critic of the bloc’s approach to the conflict in Ukraine, and has repeatedly argued that sanctions are hurting the EU more than they hurt Russia. Earlier, Orban said that the punitive measures “were supposed to hit Russia, but hit Europe.” The anti-Russia measures have had a devastating impact on Budapest, by sending energy prices soaring and raising costs throughout the economy.

According to the prime minister, EU sanctions introduced against Russia over its military operation in Ukraine have cost Hungary’s economy €10 billion but have failed to stop the conflict. Meanwhile, Russia has survived the loss of Western markets and its economy is developing in a new way, with GDP expected to grow as soon as the second quarter of this year, President Vladimir Putin said earlier in March. Russia’s foreign trade grew by more than 8% last year, while inflation is expected at around 4% this year. This comes as “other Europeans” are trying “to convince everyone of the imminent collapse of the Russian economy,” even though EU inflation rates are higher, the Russian president noted.

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“..a wrapped gift to the oligarchs who buy our shares.”

• Norway’s Wealth Fund Unable To Withdraw Funds From Russia (RT)

Norway’s $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund, one of the world’s largest investors, is still unable to divest its holdings in Russia as the custodian bank is under Western sanctions, the Norwegian Finance Ministry said on Friday. The Oslo-based Government Pension Fund is the world’s biggest owner of publicly traded companies with a portfolio of about 9,000 stocks. It has around 0.2% of its assets invested in Russia. “The market for trading in Russian financial instruments is still subject to comprehensive sanctions and has not been normalized as of March 2023,” the ministry said in a statement. The Nordic country’s authorities decided to sell Russian stocks right after the start of the military operation in Ukraine.

The fund held shares in 47 Russian companies and government bonds valued at 25 billion Norwegian crowns ($2.4 billion) at the end of 2021. However, at that time the fund’s management was resisting pressure to shed Russian assets, with CEO Nicolai Tangen saying it would be “a wrapped gift to the oligarchs who buy our shares.” Since then, Western nations have imposed sweeping sanctions against Russia which now prevent the Norwegian pension fund from divesting its assets. “The concrete and practical problem is that the custodian bank that we use is under sanctions, and can’t assist us with settlement of transactions, and neither with voting on shares” in Russian companies, deputy CEO, Trond Grande said in January.

The situation is “deadlocked” he noted, adding that “there is no way we can either sell or buy or vote on these shares.” Details of the fund’s portfolio at the end of 2022 released in January revealed a loss of about $2.8 billion from Russian holdings, compared to their value at the end of 2021. Meanwhile, Russia has repeatedly warned that sanctions imposed on the country would backfire. Earlier this month, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said Western nations would “suffer from their own restrictions” while being “disappointed” by Russia’s resilience.

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A pretty crazy plan, if you ask me. Do they really think Russia will let armed troops wander around?

• ‘Peacekeepers’ Deployed To Ukraine Without Russia’s Consent – Medvedev (TASS)

So-called peacekeepers, whose deployment to Ukraine under NATO auspices is currently being mooted in Europe, will be eliminated should any appear at the frontlines without Russia’s consent, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dimity Medvedev said on Friday. “It is obvious that such ‘peacekeepers’ are our unvarnished enemies, wolves in sheep’s clothing. They would be a legitimate target for our armed forces should they be deployed at the frontlines, without Russia’s consent, with weapons in hand and presenting a direct threat to us,” Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel. According to Medvedev, “those ‘peacekeepers’” must be destroyed mercilessly as they are the “soldiers of the enemy.”

“They will die in the course of combat,” the deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council stated with confidence. “Is Europe prepared for a long line of coffins holding its ‘peacekeepers’?” he asked rhetorically. “Their (NATO member countries’ – TASS) true intentions are crystal clear – to impose a peace that is favorable to them on the line of contact from a position of strength and to station their ‘peacekeeping’ troops in Ukraine, who would be armed with assault rifles and riding on tanks, and would be wearing some sort of blue helmets with yellow stars,” the deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council said.

Medvedev recalled that the potential results of such actions can be seen in the “history of operations conducted by the United States and its allies in various regions of the world, [including] the tragedies of Korea, Vietnam, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan and numerous African countries.” “It is clear that the so-called NATO peacekeepers are simply preparing to enter the conflict on the side of our enemies in order to make hay out of this, bringing the situation to the point of no return, and to unleash that World War III they claim to be so afraid of.”.

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“It’s a little early to assess the knock-on effects of the Left’s ecstatic Trumpgasm..”

• Did They Light Up a Cigarette Afterward? (Kunstler)

The New York Times enjoyed its long-delayed tantric Trumpgasm so much today that it rolled out the full-page banner headline format usually reserved for the commencement of world wars. (They took the banner down before seven o’clock this morning.) For many of the cat-ladies employed as “reporters” at the once-august paper, it was the first Trumpgasm they’ve ever experienced in a lifetime of emotional displacement, over-eating, and furious knitting of pink polyester hats for the crusade to root out patriarchal wickedness. This fulfillment of a years-long psychodrama, starring the feared and loathed occult persona of a gold-coiffed “Daddy” figure who once presided in the political household, came at the hands of dragon-slayer Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, archetype of the many long-oppressed victims worked to death in the bilges of our slave ship of state — now turned righteous Woke deliverer of cosmic vengeance!

This, of course, is brought to you by the party of hoaxes, flimflams, and mandated death shots, so it’s amusing here on the sidelines to see The Times’s op-ed writers squirm with post-coital pleasure underneath the full-page Trumpgasmic headline. The lead editorial declares: “Even Donald Trump Should Be Held Accountable”— overlooking the utter absence of accountability that has been the norm in every recent insult to the nation’s dignity from wholesale and repeat election fraud, to six years of lawless depravity in the FBI, to overt support of Antifa and BLM street havoc, to the forced, deceitful administration of deadly “vaccines.” “How a President’s Arrest Can Strengthen a Democracy,” honorary cat-lady Nicholas Kristoff opined, repeating the bad-faith trope that his legions of Wokery have an interest in political rectitude — when, in fact, they are solely preoccupied with coercing, censoring, cancelling, persecuting, punishing, and defenestrating anyone who objects to their grifts and hustles.

“Only love and a leap of faith can break through distrust. That is why a credible form of patriotism is so important right now,” explained The Times’s official Superintendent of Platitudes, David Brooks, to soothe consciences grated by this loutish gambit to shove a political adversary off the game board in advance of an election. “Joe Biden may not be your cup of tea,” Mr. Brooks summed up his civics lesson, “but he’s restored sanity, effectiveness and decency to the White House.” [..] It’s a little early to assess the knock-on effects of the Left’s ecstatic Trumpgasm. A common theme flying across the Web is that Alvin Bragg’s jerry-rigged case will only make a martyr of Mr. Trump, neatly illustrating and personifying the government’s apparent war against its own citizens — making it clear that they will stop at nothing and no one to enforce the corrupt bureaucracy’s will against the public — and that the net result will be to ensure Mr. Trump’s reelection in 2024.

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There are tons of Trump-haters in positions of power. A new one very day.

• Manhattan Assistant DA Nukes Twitter Account After Anti-Trump Bias Exposed (ZH)

Less than 24 hours after the Gateway Pundit exposed Manhattan Assistant District Attorney Meg Reiss’ public hatred of Donald Trump on Twitter, Reiss – who’s been accused of masterminding the case against the former president, locked and then deleted her account. As TGP documented Thursday morning, Reiss ‘liked’ several anti-Trump tweets, exposing her absolute bias against the man her office is about to indict over hush money paid to former adult actress Stormy Daniels (real name Stephanie Clifford). Of note, Trump’s alleged payment to Daniels through former lawyer Michael Cohen would normally be a misdemeanor which falls outside the statute of limitations. Not for Bragg’s office. Not for Reiss. For comparison, Hillary Clinton was allowed to pay a fine to the FEC for actual election interference with the Steele Dossier hoax her campaign paid for and then boosted throughout the media.


As TGP further notes; The Institute for Innovation in Prosecution (IIP) which is a research center out of the Soros-funded John Jay College has tagged her dozens of times. Reiss served as the Executive Director for the IIP.” DA of Brooklyn Eric Gonzalez also tagged Reiss, who previously served in the Brooklyn District Attorney’s Office as the Chief of Social Justice, on several occasions too. Most of these tweets Reiss liked were while she served in the Brooklyn District Attorney’s Office as the Chief of Social Justice and as she served as the director of the IIP. However, her political bias extends into her time at the Manhattan DA’s office as well. Earlier in the year as she was serving as Manhattan’s Chief Assistant District Attorney she retweeted a video of Democrat representative Hakeem Jeffries giving a speech at the State of the Union. At one point during the video Reiss shared, Rep. Jeffries says Democrats will put “Maturity over Mar-a-Lago”.

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“Bragg ran on his pledge to bag Trump and Pomerantz ramped up the political base to demand an indictment for a crime. It really did not matter what that crime might be.”

• The Trump Indictment: Making History in the Worst Possible Way (Turley)

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has finally made history. He has indicted former President Donald Trump as part of an investigation, possibly for hush money payments. We are all waiting to see the text of the indictment to confirm the basis for this unprecedented act. But history in this case — and in this country — is not on Bragg’s side. The only crime that has been discussed in this case is an unprecedented attempt to revive a misdemeanor for falsifying business documents that expired years ago. If that is still the basis of Thursday’s indictment, Bragg could not have raised a weaker basis to prosecute a former president. If reports are accurate, he may attempt to “bootstrap” the misdemeanor into a felony (and longer statute of limitations) by alleging an effort to evade federal election charges.

While Trump will be the first former president indicted, he will not be the last if that is the standard for prosecution. It is still hard to believe that Bragg would primarily proceed on such a basis. There have been no other crimes discussed over months, but we will have to wait to read the indictment to confirm the grounds. What we do know is the checkered history leading to this moment. The Justice Department itself declined to prosecute the federal election claim against Trump. There was ample reason to decline. The Justice Department went down this road before and it did not go well. They tried to prosecute former Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards on stronger grounds (which I also criticized) and failed. In that case, campaign officials and donors were directly involved in covering up an affair that produced a child.

At the time, Edwards’ wife was suffering from cancer. The prosecution still collapsed. The reason is that you need to show the sole purpose for paying hush money in such a scandal. For any married man, let alone a celebrity, there are various reasons to want to bury a sexual scandal. For Trump, there was an upcoming election but he was also married man allegedly involved in an affair with a porn star. He was also a television celebrity who is subject to the standard “morals clause” that’s triggered by criminal conduct or conduct that brings “public disrepute, scandal, or embarrassment.” These clauses are written broadly to protect the news organizations and their “brand.”

Various presidents from Warren Harding to Bill Clinton have been involved in efforts to hush up affairs. They also had different reasons for burying such scandals, including politics. However, scandals are messy matters with a complex set of motivations. Showing that Trump only acted with the future election in mind — rather than his current marriage or television contracts — is implausible. That was likely the same calculus made by the Justice Department. That is also why the use of the “bootstrapping” theory as the primary charge would be an indictment of the prosecution and its own conduct. The office has already been tarnished by the conduct of the prosecutors who pushed this theory.

When Bragg initially balked at this theory and stopped the investigation, two prosecutors, Carey R. Dunne and Mark F. Pomerantz, then resigned from the Manhattan DA’s office. Pomerantz then did something that some of us view as a highly unprofessional and improper act. He published a book on the case against Trump — a person who was still under investigation and not charged, let alone convicted, of any crime. It worked. Bragg ran on his pledge to bag Trump and Pomerantz ramped up the political base to demand an indictment for a crime. It really did not matter what that crime might be.

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Save the world by destroying society. Sounds like a plan.

• Stirrings of Euro Eco-rebellion (Higgie)

It’s not often that a development in north-western Tasmania looms large on the international stage. But a site near Burnie is set to be a key part of Germany’s resistance to Green pressure to abandon internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in favour of electric cars. Porsche is the driving force behind the A$1 billion investment in the HIF (Highly Innovative Fuels) plant now in development – one of three such e-fuel plants globally – as part of a move to mass production by 2026. E-fuel, not yet commercially available, is a combination of hydrogen with carbon dioxide captured from the atmosphere which ICE vehicles can run on. While the use of e-fuel produces carbon emissions, these are offset according to producers by the CO2 sucked from the atmosphere to make the fuel. Germany’s car producers are touting ICE vehicles using e-fuel – with the price eventually expected to be around A$2 a litre – as an alternative to battery-powered cars.

Germany’s insistence that ICE vehicles can and must remain into the future has shown that even for its Green-Left government, economics can eventually trump environmental political correctness. The country remains by far Europe’s largest car producer and is the world’s largest car exporter by value, employing 800,000, 5 per cent of the workforce. Car production has in large part powered Germany’s modern economy and more than a little Teutonic pride is inspired by the fact that one of their own, Karl Benz, pioneered the first reliable petrol engine and commercial production of ICE vehicles. Torpedoing the EU plan to ban the sale of new ICE vehicles will allow car producers to continue using their existing products and infrastructure.

Germany’s position has thrown a spanner in the works of what the EU had proclaimed as a landmark step in its climate change activism. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government last year signed off on an EU commitment for all new vehicles sold from 2035 to have zero emissions. In February the European parliament, including representives of Germany’s coalition parties, passed legislation to that effect. To be confirmed as EU law, the measure needs to be approved by the European Council, the EU member-state leaders. But at the eleventh hour, the one non-Green-Left element in Germany’s ruling coalition, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), began echoing through its Porsche-driving transport minister, Volker Wissing, fierce objections of the country’s car producers to an all-electric vehicle future. The FDP has long been a strong backer of the car industry, including through its resistance to efforts by the other main parties to end Germany’s status as Europe’s only country without a general motorway speed limit. Despite objections from the Greens, Scholz has backed the FDP’s objections to the EU’s planned 2035 law.

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Latest photo of Julian Assange. Now I want to cry.

 

 


Oliver Hardy, Stan Laurel, Jimmy Durante and Buster Keaton in 1932.

 

 

Gervais
https://twitter.com/i/status/1641683221153972226

 

 

Burnt tree
https://twitter.com/i/status/1641750060965715969

 

 

 

 

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Debt Rattle February 13 2018

Feb 132018
 
 February 13, 2018  Posted by at 10:58 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  4 Responses »


Camille Corot Study for “The Destruction of Sodom” 1843

 

• We Are Sitting On A “Full Tank Of Gas” (Roberts)
• ‘Whistleblower’ Alleges VIX Manipulation, Urges Regulatory Probe (R.)
• How A 5% Mortgage Rate Would Roil The US Housing Market (CNBC)
• Interest-Only Loan Cash Flow Crunch Sparks Fears Of Fire Sales (AFR)
• These Bonds Should Make ECB Hawks Apoplectic With Rage (BBG)
• China Real Estate Under Pressure (BBG)
• Greece Rocked By Claims Drug Giant Novartis Bribed Former Leaders (G.)
• Greece Is a Turkey, and the Market’s Going to the Dogs (BBG)
• An Englishman’s Home Is an Unreliable Pension Plan (BW)
• Charities Face Crackdown On ‘Horrific’ Culture Of Sexual Exploitation (Ind.)
• Unicef Admits Failings With Child Victims Of Sex Abuse By Peacekeepers (G.)

 

 

“Individuals just simply refuse to act “rationally” by holding their investments as they watch losses mount.”

• We Are Sitting On A “Full Tank Of Gas” (Roberts)

Yea….it’s that psychology thing. Individuals just simply refuse to act “rationally” by holding their investments as they watch losses mount. This behavioral bias of investors is one of the most serious risks arising from ETFs as the concentration of too much capital in too few places.

But this concentration risk in ETF’s is not the first time this has occurred: In the early 70’s it was the “Nifty Fifty” stocks, Then Mexican and Argentine bonds a few years after that; “Portfolio Insurance” was the “thing” in the mid -80’s; Dot.com anything was a great investment in 1999; Real estate has been a boom/bust cycle roughly every other decade, but 2006 was a doozy; Today, it’s ETF’s and Bitcoin.

Risk concentration always seems rational at the beginning, and the initial successes of the trends it creates can be self-reinforcing. Until it goes in the other direction. While the sell-off last week was not particularly unusual, it was the uniformity of the price moves which revealed the fallacy “passive investing” as investors headed for the door all at the same time. Such a uniform sell-off is indicative of what we have been warning about for the last several months. For price chasing investors, last week’s plunge should serve as a warning. “With everyone crowded into the ‘ETF Theater,’ the ‘exit’ problem should be of serious concern. Unfortunately, for most investors, they are likely stuck at the very back of the theater.

I warned of this previously: “At some point, that reversion process will take hold. It is then investor ‘psychology’ will collide with ‘margin debt’ and ETF liquidity. It will be the equivalent of striking a match, lighting a stick of dynamite and throwing it into a tanker full of gasoline. When the ‘herding’ into ETF’s begins to reverse, it will not be a slow and methodical process but rather a stampede with little regard to price, valuation or fundamental measures. Importantly, as prices decline it will trigger margin calls which will induce more indiscriminate selling. The forced redemption cycle will cause catastrophic spreads between the current bid and ask pricing for ETF’s.

As investors are forced to dump positions to meet margin calls, the lack of buyers will form a vacuum causing rapid price declines which leave investors helpless on the sidelines watching years of capital appreciation vanish in moments. Don’t believe me? It happened in 2008 as the ‘Lehman Moment’ left investors helpless watching the crash.” “Over a 3-week span, investors lost 29% of their capital and 44% over the entire 3-month period. This is what happens during a margin liquidation event. It is fast, furious and without remorse.” Make no mistake we are sitting on a “full tank of gas.”

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No! “The flaw allows trading firms with advanced algorithms to move the VIX up or down by simply posting quotes on S&P options..”

• ‘Whistleblower’ Alleges VIX Manipulation, Urges Regulatory Probe (R.)

A scheme to manipulate Wall Street’s fear gauge, VIX, poses risk to the entire equity market and costs investors hundreds of millions of dollars a month, a law firm on behalf of an “anonymous whistleblower” told U.S. financial regulators and urged them to investigate before additional losses are suffered. The Washington-based law firm which represents an anonymous person who claims to have held senior roles in the investment business, told the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Monday that he discovered a market manipulation scheme that takes advantage of a widespread flaw in the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX).

The CBOE Volatility Index measures the cost of buying options and is the most widely followed barometer of expected near-term stock market volatility. “The flaw allows trading firms with advanced algorithms to move the VIX up or down by simply posting quotes on S&P options and without needing to physically engage in any trading or deploying any capital,” it said in a letter. Those bets against volatility unraveled last week as the benchmark S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered their biggest respective percentage drops since August 2011. Investors using exchange-traded products linked to the VIX were pummeled and two banks, Credit Suisse and Nomura, said they would terminate two exchange traded notes that bet on low volatility in stock prices.

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Try 6%, 7%.

• How A 5% Mortgage Rate Would Roil The US Housing Market (CNBC)

Mortgage rates are now at their highest level in four years and poised to move even higher. The timing couldn’t be worse, as the usually busy spring housing market kicked into gear early this year amid higher home prices and strong competition for a record low supply of homes for sale. Add it all up, and affordability is starting to hurt. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed is now right around 4.50%, still low when looking historically, but buyers over the past six years have gotten more used to rates in the 3% range. Mortgage rates have not been at 5% since 2011. A 5% rate would cause more than a quarter of today’s homebuyers to slow their plans, according to a Redfin survey of 4,000 consumers at the end of last year. Just 6% said they would drop their plans to buy altogether.

About one-fifth of consumers said 5% rates would cause them to move with more urgency to purchase a home, fearing rates would rise even further. Another fifth said they would consider more affordable areas or just buy a smaller home. Despite rate concerns, the bigger issue for buyers is changes to tax laws that had lowered the cost of homeownership. Specifically, the deduction on property taxes is now limited to $10,000. While that does not affect homeowners in the majority of the country, it does hit those in high-cost states like New York, New Jersey and Illinois, and those in higher-priced housing markets like California. Some have claimed that higher rates and the new tax law will put downward pressure on home prices, alleviating some of the current sticker shock, but other factors are fighting that assertion.

“Tight credit, lack of inventory and high demand are the major factors that tell us there’s no housing bubble, despite rapid price increases,” said Redfin’s chief economist, Nela Richardson. “There are still many more buyers than the current housing supply can support, with no major relief in sight.”

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From Australia. Check interest-only where you live. Big Threat.

• Interest-Only Loan Cash Flow Crunch Sparks Fears Of Fire Sales (AFR)

Interest-only property investors seeking to switch their loan to principal and interest may be forced to sell because of lenders’ tough new serviceability requirements. A typical borrower paying 4.5% on a $400,000 loan will have to prove to their lender they can meet repayments for a 7.25% loan, or an increase in annual repayments from $18,000 to more than $32,700. The higher serviceability rates have been introduced after many investors took out their loans and are forcing borrowers to try and sell their properties, despite markets beginning to soften. It’s worse for many self-managed super fund investors who bought investment properties and are boxed in from making bigger payments because of annual caps on the size of their contributions. Real estate agents are warning the cash flow crunch is causing mortgage stress to rapidly spread from one-time mining boom towns and the outer suburbs into prestigious inner suburbs.

“Clients are ringing to say they need to refinance and their next call is that they need to sell,” said Andrew Fawell, director of Beller Property Group. Mr Fawell, whose business covers inner Melbourne within 10 kilometres of the central business district, has been asked to value four potential mortgagee property sales in the past month after having none in the past two years. “Many investors who bought two or three apartments with, in many cases, only 10% deposit with cheap interest-only loans are beginning to feel the heat,” Mr Fawell said. “These numbers will get a lot worse as investors find it harder to service their debt.”

The potential problem arises for many three- to five-year fixed rate loans that have reached the end of their terms and the much stricter regime introduced by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Many borrowers deposited only 10%. In recent years most major lenders have introduced a 7.25% “floor for serviceability” for investor and owner-occupier loans, which is the minimum rate at which the bank will assess a home loan. Serviceability is the lenders’ assessment of the borrowers’ capacity to afford the loan and takes into account possibly higher future interest rates. It is usually assessed by a review of income and fixed commitments over the life of the loan and potential rental income.

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The ECB supports those parties that don’t need it.

• These Bonds Should Make ECB Hawks Apoplectic With Rage (BBG)

This is tapering? With the economic recovery well under way in Europe the European Central Bank has cut its government bond purchases by two-thirds. Fair enough. However, it is not reining in its involvement in company debt. The securities now comprise about 20% of monthly purchases, up from 7% at the start of the program in mid-2016. The total amount could top €200 billion ($244 billion) before quantitative easing ends. If it had any self-knowledge the ECB should be aware of the problems it’s creating. The fact that, by its purchases, it has soaked up all the liquidity in the secondary market and has had to turn to the primary market should be a warning sign. The central bank’s growing involvement in company borrowing should be causing ructions among the hawks on the Governing Council, who seem alive to the dangers of being late in withdrawing stimulus.

Yet their silence is deafening. Through QE the ECB has invested in over 230 individual companies, and with an average maturity of 5.6 years it’s impossible to see them as being exposed only in the short term. Performance has been decent – spreads have tightened on about three-quarters of its holdings. The odd misstep, such as having to liquidate Steinhoff or German fertilizer maker K+S bonds when they fell below investment grade, can be overlooked. The knock-on effect of such largess is that corporate bond spreads have had a seemingly unending streak of achieving record lows. Support for credit markets in times of strife is one thing. But driving outsized performance isn’t just storing up trouble for an individual company or investor for the future, it’s a reckless refusal to allow financial discipline to inform the decision making of actors in the financial system.

[..] The surge of demand for additional tier one bank capital is another particularly worrying phenomenon. Investors face a total loss if the issuing bank’s capital ratios fall below regulatory requirements. Raiffeisen Bank was able in January to issue an AT1 perpetual bond at 4.5%, having issued a similar 6.125% AT1 security in June. Though there was a one-notch credit-rating upgrade, that can hardly justify such an enormous improvement. And 4.5% can never be enough compensation for the risk of getting completely wiped out.

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Now Beijing wants to push rental housing. Easier to control?

• China Real Estate Under Pressure (BBG)

While all eyes are on China’s stocks rout after the U.S. swoon, there’s a troubled sector that’s garnering fewer headlines but will have broader reverberations – real estate. Chinese property stocks slumped last week, dragged down not just by the global sell-off but by worries this may be the year when housing finally takes a hit. To date, Beijing’s crackdown on risk amid soaring household debt has had little effect on prices. December data showed values in small cities continued to rise, while they were mostly flat in top-tier conurbations like Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Beijing. There are several reasons, though, why the 13-year rally in house prices must end at some point. First, banks are making borrowing tough, not only raising costs for home loans but also restricting supply, especially in major centers such as Beijing and Shenzhen, under a semi-official mortgage quota.

Even last year’s stars, the second- and third-tier cities that led price gains, may fade as China curtails easy home loans that were intended to help soak up a glut of property. Downpayments there ranged between 20 and 30%, compared with 40 to 80% in top-tier locations, according to Credit Suisse. As the curbs bite, mortgage lending has started to decline. (The other plank of household debt, consumer lending, has been an even bigger problem, surging 180% last year, according to Credit Suisse.) Second, perhaps further down the line, a property tax is looming. Finance Minister Xiao Jie indicated this might happen as early as 2020. When President Xi Jinping exhorted people to remember that houses are for living, not speculation, real estate investors must have grown nervous; a tax will make them quake.

With few investment options available to individuals beyond the volatile stock market and wealth-management products (more and more of which are being banned), it’s no surprise that as much as 25% of the demand for real estate is speculative, according to Bloomberg Economics. Third, there’s the more immediate threat to real estate prices of a supply-side push by Beijing. The government is starting to shift from tamping down demand to promoting new housing. Among measures the government is promoting, according to BNP Paribas economist Chen Xingdong, is encouraging homes where the government and buyers share property rights, and even allowing state-owned firms to sell apartments to their employees. The government is also encouraging the growth of a rental market. While much of the current stock of rental housing is of poor quality, that’s likely to change.

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And only now does this reach European media. The upshot: Novartis pulled the same stunt in South Korea.

• Greece Rocked By Claims Drug Giant Novartis Bribed Former Leaders (G.)

The Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, has called for parliament to investigate whether two of his predecessors and eight former ministers accepted bribes from the Swiss drugmaker Novartis, after allegations of industrial-scale bribery involving senior politicians. The former PMs Antonis Samaras and Panagiotis Pikrammenos, the governor of the Bank of Greece and the EU’s migration commissioner were all identified as alleged beneficiaries of bribes in a report compiled by anti-corruption prosecutors with the help of US authorities. Novartis is alleged to have bribed politicians to approve overpriced contracts and to have made payments to thousands of doctors as part of concerted efforts to boost sales between 2006 to 2015.

The claims have rocked Greek society since coming to light last week. One serving government minister claimed the kickbacks surpassed €50m and resulted in costs of more than €4bn to the Greek public health system. The deputy justice minister, Dimitris Papangelopoulos, said it was “the biggest scandal since the establishment of the Greek state” almost 200 years ago. Widening the net on Monday, Tsipras said it was imperative there could be no cover-up. “We will make use of every power afforded by national and international law to recover the money stolen from the Greek people down to the last euro,” the leftist leader told MPs in his Syriza party. “We will do everything we can to reveal the truth.”

MPs will vote on establishing a committee of inquiry later this month. Only parliament has the power to investigate politicians for alleged infractions during their term in office. The allegations have been rebutted vehemently by the accused. The report’s reliance on three unnamed witnesses – who are currently under government protection – has been especially criticised, and legal experts contend that the claims would not stand up in court. The EU commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos demanded that the identity of the witnesses be revealed and expressed his “disgust” at what he said were fabrications created by “sick minds”. He stands accused of purchasing 16m anti-flu vaccines from Novartis while health minister between 2006 and 2009. [..] Novartis has faced similar investigations in recent years. Last year South Korea fined the company $48m for offering kickbacks to doctors.

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Just as Greece starts selling bonds again, it faces increasing competition,

• Greece Is a Turkey, and the Market’s Going to the Dogs (BBG)

Greece almost makes it look easy. It issued a new €3 billion ($3.7 billion) seven-year bond on Thursday, at a very healthy 3.5% yield, stepping into a briefly open window for raising money during the most torrid week for markets in years. The security is now trading very close to 4%. Ouch. The benefits of going ahead with the sale went to Greece rather than to investors. With a €6 billion order book there was no lack of demand – but there is buyer’s remorse now. It’s the first sovereign syndicated new issue to perform badly in Europe so far this year. This could make it troublesome for the region’s other governments to bring deals on top of an already-heavy regular auction schedule. Greece may just be one turkey, but investor demand is going to become a lot pickier.

And there’s plenty to choose from. Governments have been crowding out the syndicated new issue market even more this year, comprising 26.5% of deals versus an already-strong 23% at this stage in 2017. If supra-nationals and agencies are included then half of all new syndicated deals are from an official institution. It’s a curious result, given that the European new-issue market is supposed to be much more about companies. For example, the European Financial Stability Facility – created to fund Greece’s bailout – has already issued half of its €28 billion annual plan. The EFSF has come three times in 2018 with €13.5 billion in maturities ranging from 6 to 23 years. That is an almost indecent rush to complete its annual funding schedule as early as possible. It’s smart for the issuer – less so for the investor.

Borrowers can try to front-load sales in a low-rate environment, but with more central banks getting comfortable with tightening, investors are not going to play that game unless the yield is generous. It’s an increasing struggle, given that the German benchmark 10-year yield has risen sharply since the mid-December lows of 30 basis points. The yield famine is easing up.

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What a shame: too late!

• An Englishman’s Home Is an Unreliable Pension Plan (BW)

“A man’s house is his castle,” Sir Edward Coke wrote back in the 17th century. These days, Britons are relying on their properties not just for refuge but also to fund their retirements. It’s a strategy that could backfire badly. Along with the rest of the world, the U.K. has an aging population: a growing number of retirees are being supported by a shrinking pool of workers. The U.K.’s dependency ratio – calculated by adding together the over 65s and under 15s, then dividing by the working-age population and multiplying by 100 – will rise to 60% by 2027. That’s up from 55% in 2017 and from 54% in 1997. As the pyramid grows more inverted, how does the top-heavy non-working cohort propose to finance a life of leisure and superannuation? By releasing the equity they expect to have accumulated in their homes once they’re ready to hit the golf course.

One in five Brits agreed with the statement “when I retire, I plan to sell my house, downsize and live off the profit,” according to a survey commissioned by pension consultants LCP from polling firm YouGov. That gamble seems unwise. In recent years home values, like global stock markets, only ever seemed to increase. But, again as with global stock markets, the notion of ever-rising prices has taken something of a beating recently. According to a report published on Monday, U.K. house prices posted their first annual decline in six years in January. Moreover, with wage growth in recent years failing to keep pace with either rising property prices or inflation, it’s become harder for those of working age to get on the housing ladder in the first place. And the percentage of under 34s who own their own homes has slumped in the past decade.

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This is so sick it makes one silent.

• Charities Face Crackdown On ‘Horrific’ Culture Of Sexual Exploitation (Ind.)

British charities are facing a government crackdown to combat the “horrific” sexual exploitation exposed at Oxfam, amid concerns about a wider culture of abuse. All British charities working overseas have been ordered to provide “absolute assurances” that they are protecting vulnerable people and referring complaints to authorities. Oxfam’s deputy chief executive resigned during crisis talks with the Government, saying she took “full responsibility” for the alleged use of prostitutes by senior staff in Haiti. But aid workers told The Independent sexual misconduct against both locals and staff remains “widespread” in humanitarian agencies and called for wholesale reforms.

Penny Mordaunt, the International Development Secretary, has written a letter to all UK charities working overseas demanding “absolute assurance that the moral leadership, the systems, the culture and the transparency needed to fully protect vulnerable people are in place”. “It is not only Oxfam that must improve,” she said. “My absolute priority is to keep the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people safe from harm. In the 21st century, it is utterly despicable that sexual exploitation and abuse continues to exist in the aid sector.” The Department for International Development (Dfid) has created a new unit dedicated to reviewing safeguarding in the aid sector and stopping “criminal and predatory individuals” being employed by other charities.

[..] “Oxfam made a full and unqualified apology – to me, and to the people of Britain and Haiti – for the appalling behaviour of some of their staff in Haiti in 2011, and for the wider failings of their organisation’s response to it,” said Ms Mordaunt. “They spoke of the deep sense of disgrace and shame that they and their organisation feel about what has happened, and set out the actions they will now take to put things right and prevent such horrific abuses happening in future.“

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It’s not just Oxfam, it’s an industry-wide culture.

• Unicef Admits Failings With Child Victims Of Sex Abuse By Peacekeepers (G.)

The UN’s children’s agency has admitted shortcomings in its humanitarian support to children who allege that they were raped and sexually abused by French peacekeepers in Central African Republic. A statement by Unicef Netherlands is the first public acknowledgement of the agency’s recent failure to provide support to some of the victims of alleged abuse by peacekeepers in the African nation. It comes as the aid sector and the UN face increasing scrutiny for their failings in managing internal sexual misconduct by their own staff. Unicef was given the task of overseeing the support for children who said they had been abused by peacekeepers.

But in March last year, an award-winning investigation by Swedish Television’s Uppdrag Granskning (Mission Investigate) revealed that some of the children supposedly in the UN’s care were homeless, out of school and forced to make a living on the streets, despite UN assurances that they would be protected. Unicef’s representative in CAR told the programme that the children were in the agency’s assistance programme for minors and were being supported. He said he was not aware that some were on the streets. But earlier this month – ahead of a Dutch screening of the programme – Unicef Netherlands admitted to the Dutch television programme Zembla that Unicef had failed in its duty to help some of the alleged victims. But it said that since the programme had first aired, it had taken steps to locate the children featured in the programme and provide them with support.

Marieke van Santen, of Zembla, said she found the Swedish film “astonishing” because the children who were interviewed were known to Unicef, yet they were not being cared for. Van Santen said: “It is quite shocking to realise that not only once but twice UN agencies have failed to help these victims.” The statement from Unicef Netherlands was welcomed by Karin Mattisson, a reporter for Mission Investigate. “I hope it makes a difference to the children and gives them strength. They have said they were failed,” said Mattisson.Several boys who testified to having been sexually assaulted by French soldiers were living rough, Mattisson found, while a girl, who became pregnant at the age of 14 by a Congolese peacekeeper and had later found out she was HIV-positive, was out of school looking after her baby. Another boy, aged eight, who was too traumatised to be interviewed, was in an orphanage. “I hope they live up to this statement,” she said. “When we investigated the UN and Unicef it was a long journey into their culture of silence.”

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