Oct 142024
 


Hannah Höch Cut with the Dada Kitchen Knife through the Last Weimar Beer-Belly Cultural Epoch in Germany 1919

 

Trump Warns of World War III Because of Biden Administration (RT)
The Tax Cut Tour: Trump Targets Voters With More Breaks (RCW)
Third Trump Assassination Attempt Foiled – Law Enforcement (RT)
Trump Campaign Requests Military Aircraft With Antimissile Capabilities (ZH)
Group Threatening Lawyers’ Licenses If They Work For Trump (JTN)
Dems Call on Biden to Commit Unconstitutional Acts in his Final Days (Turley)
If Israel Attacks Iran, Russia Is Not Going to Stay on the Sideline (Whitney)
US Troops Will Deploy To Israel – Pentagon (RT)
Netanyahu Orders UN To Evacuate Lebanon Peacekeepers (RT)
Israel Finance Minister Calls For Borders To Extend To Damascus (MEE)
Zelensky ‘Left Seething’ After Meeting With Polish Minister (Sp.)
West Sacrificing Economy, Military Readiness to Back Ukraine (Sp.)
Stoltenberg Stupidly Celebrates His Own Failure To Achieve Security (SCF)
US Failed To Stop Mystery Drones Over Military Sites – WSJ (RT)
Unholy Coincidences Between The Security State And Lone Wolf Assassins (Carman)
Canada’s Dissenting Liberal MPs Seek to Topple Trudeau (Sp.)
Titan of Business, Friend of Strays: The legendary Ratan Tata (Chowdhury)

 

 

 

 

SNL

 

 

Tesla

Trump water

Letitia
https://twitter.com/i/status/1845175071771590960

Walz

Hand counting

Cardone

Zakharova
https://twitter.com/i/status/1845109011533955482

 

 

 

 

”We got a problem. I actually worry about the next three months..”

If he leads the polls, they can throw a war in his lap. Probably Iran.

Trump Warns of World War III Because of Biden Administration (RT)

The US is dangerously close to sliding into World War III within months due to the policies of the administration of President Joe Biden, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has said. Speaking at a campaign rally on Saturday in California, a Democratic Party stronghold, Trump claimed that an overwhelming majority of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track. The former president said, however, that he has an even more pressing concern. ”We got a problem. I actually worry about the next three months… I worry we’ll end up in a world war because of the people that we have [in the administration],” he said. Trump promised that if he is elected president in November, he would “act with urgency and speed to save America and to rescue the people of California from [Democratic nominee] Kamala Harris’ atrocious failures.”

He added that during his time in office, he “kept… [the] country safe, we had no wars.” “I’ll keep you out of wars… I will end [the] war in Ukraine, stop the chaos in the Middle East, and I will prevent very definitely World War III,” he said. The Republican has repeatedly promised to end the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours of being elected, before even being sworn into office, although the details of the plan remain largely unknown. According to his running mate, J.D. Vance, Trump could start talks with Russia, Ukraine, and European stakeholders to establish a demilitarized zone along the current front line, with Kiev agreeing to stay out of NATO. Harris, who has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine, has criticized Trump’s approach, claiming that he would essentially force Kiev to surrender.

The Kremlin has also expressed skepticism about the Republican’s promises of peace, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggesting that he does not “think there is a magic wand” that can stop the fighting overnight. In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow would immediately agree to a ceasefire and start peace talks if Kiev began withdrawing troops from the Russian regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye, and committed to neutrality. Later, he also signaled that a precondition for talks also includes the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Russia’s Kursk Region.

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Trying to simplify taxes?!

The Tax Cut Tour: Trump Targets Voters With More Breaks (RCW)

In Michigan, during remarks before the Detroit Economic Club, former President Trump vowed to make interest on car loans fully tax deductible, a proposal that would be a boon to the automobile industry in Michigan and elsewhere – and which is merely the latest promise in what has become a pattern. Trump told voters in Nevada that he would eliminate taxes on tips earlier this summer. The Republican nominee followed that up this fall by promising to restore the state and local tax deduction, a key tax deduction that he and congressional Republicans eliminated while president and which, if restored, would be a benefit to suburban voters in states like New York, New Jersey, and California. Trump has also called for making Social Security benefits tax-free. Seniors, who would benefit from that last proposal, live, well, everywhere. While Americans over 50 are the largest voting bloc, the beneficiaries of the latest tax slash are much smaller: Citizens living abroad.

“I support ending the double taxation of overseas Americans,” Trump told The Wall Street Journal Thursday, a reference to his plan to lower the tax burden of the small number of citizens who pay both federal taxes and taxes to the foreign government where they reside. As the Journal reported, it was a play to win support from an often-overlooked group of voters. All the proposed tax slashing has left some heads reeling. “Trump’s just throwing darts at the populist-pandering dart board. Economic coherence be damned,” said Brian Riedl, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a center-right think tank. The politics, meanwhile, are undeniable. Vice President Kamala Harris found herself playing catch up when she unveiled a similar “no tax on tips” proposal. Republicans complain that Harris is playing “copy-cat.” Her proposal does differ from that of Trump, however, in that she supports eliminating taxes on tips only for those making under $75,000 and would pair that reform with legislation boosting the minimum wage for tipped workers from $2.13 an hour to $7.25.

She has also slammed Trump’s tariff proposal as “a sales tax on the American people.” From the call to make auto loans tax-deductible to the tipping proposals, Indiana Rep. Jim Banks sees a through line: a focus on blue-collar voters. “President Trump understands the importance of working-class voters to our party,” Banks, a Trump ally and candidate for Senate, told RealClearPolitics. He said Republicans on Capitol Hill ought to follow the former president’s lead “and give middle-class families a tax break by making the TCJA’s individual rate cut permanent before the end of next year.” Promises come easy during election season. Actual strategies to get them into law are rare on the campaign trail. The question for all politicians: How will they deliver once in office? Asked how the former president would replace revenue lost to tax cuts, Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt cited his track record rather than any specific legislative strategy.

“President Trump delivered on his promise to cut taxes in his first term,” she said. “He can be trusted to deliver on these promises in his second term.” Trump has already vowed that income from new tariffs would make up the federal revenue lost by tax cuts. Harris, meanwhile, has long argued, like most Democrats, that the rich ought to pay “their fair share.” Critics looking for technical specifics will find those broad answers unsatisfying, too. “If you demand all your current federal spending – or more – but also believe all taxes are illegitimate, Trump is your guy,” Riedl said before noting how Trump once described himself as “the King of Debt.” An estimate released by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found that Trump’s plans could add as much as $15 trillion to the national debt over a decade, while Harris’ proposals would add nearly $8 trillion. No president from either party since Bill Clinton was in the Oval Office has taken the national debt and annual budget deficits seriously.

Paul Winfree, who served as Trump’s deputy director of the Domestic Policy Council, told RCP that the former president “understands something important that all the tax nerds do not.” While wonks in the Washington beltway have often criticized Trump’s instinct to slash taxes left and right, Winfree, now the president and CEO of the Economic Policy Innovation Center, said the candidate realizes “that you will pay a price for taking away benefits that people currently have, but that you’re not rewarded for allowing people to keep what they have either.” “So he’s looking to build on the Trump tax cuts,” Winfree said of his old boss, “which will be essential to maintaining a political coalition necessary to their success.” The election, meanwhile, is in less than a month. Tax Day, more than six.

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“..Miller had presented fake VIP and press passes at the checkpoint. “They were different enough to cause the deputies alarm..”

Third Trump Assassination Attempt Foiled – Law Enforcement (RT)

A third attempt on the life of Donald Trump was prevented on Saturday when law enforcement officers arrested an armed man with fake press passes outside the former US president’s rally in Coachella, California, a local sheriff has said. Vem Miller, a 49-year-old Las Vegas resident, was arrested at a checkpoint outside the rally venue on Saturday with an illegally owned shotgun, a loaded handgun, and a high-capacity magazine, the Riverside County Sheriff’s Office said in a statement on Sunday. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco told local media that Miller had presented fake VIP and press passes at the checkpoint. “They were different enough to cause the deputies alarm,” Bianco told the Press-Enterprise. “We probably stopped another assassination attempt.”

Bianco described Miller as a “sovereign citizen,” referring to a loose collective of extreme libertarians who believe that the government cannot legally exercise authority over them. Miller is a registered Republican who holds a master’s degree from the University of California, Los Angeles, and ran for state assembly in Nevada in 2022, Bianco added. Miller has not confirmed or denied that he intended to assassinate Trump, Bianco stated. The 49-year-old suspect was released on $5,000 bail and will appear before a court in January charged with illegal firearms possession. Trump has survived two assassination attempts over the last three months. The former president and Republican presidential candidate narrowly avoided death at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania in July, when a bullet fired from around 150m away grazed his ear.

The gunman fired from a rooftop that had inexplicably been left unprotected by the Secret Service, and managed to kill one rally goer and injure two others before he was shot dead by a sniper. The second attempt took place at Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach, Florida, in September. A gunman aiming at Trump from behind bushes was spooked by Secret Service agents and arrested after he fled the scene. The suspect, identified as Ryan Wesley Routh, had unsuccessfully attempted to join the Ukrainian military in 2022, and afterwards embarked on a scheme to recruit former Afghan commandos to fight for Kiev. American intelligence agents have claimed that Iran is seeking to assassinate Trump, and President Joe Biden has warned Tehran that he would treat an attack on his former political rival as an act of war.

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“..no nominee in recent history has been ferried around in military planes ahead of an election.”

Trump Campaign Requests Military Aircraft With Antimissile Capabilities (ZH)

Donald Trump has survived two assassination attempts within a very short period of time, but now with less than a month to go till the November election, his campaign is reportedly requesting the use of military aircraft and vehicles to protect him. Sources who spoke to the New York Times and Washington Post in Friday stories indicate the former president has requested much greater protections than US Secret Service agents currently provide him. There are also new reports saying he’s unlikely to play golf again until new expanded protocols are in place, as the Secret Service would have trouble protecting him on a golf course. The Washington Post reports based on emails it reviewed: “Donald Trump’s campaign requested military aircraft for Trump to fly in during the final weeks of the campaign, expanded flight restrictions over his residences and rallies, ballistic glass pre-positioned in seven battleground states for the campaign’s use and an array of military vehicles to transport Trump.”

The report further calls the requests “extraordinary and unprecedented” given that “no nominee in recent history has been ferried around in military planes ahead of an election.” The campaign has reportedly cited the Iran threat directed against Trump. Late last month he was given a special briefing by top US intelligence officials about alleged efforts of Tehran to assassinate him. A Sept. 24th statement from the campaign said, “President Trump was briefed earlier today by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence regarding real and specific threats from Iran to assassinate him in an effort to destabilize and sow chaos in the United States.” These new efforts to get military-level protections, which are typically only afforded to the sitting Commander-in-Chief, are based precisely on the belief that Iran is still trying to kill him.

The WaPo report says “Trump advisers have grown concerned about drones and missiles, according to the people.” Republican congressional leaders have also urged the necessity of greatly heightened protocols to protect the former president, to include protective military assets, such as when his plane goes from state to state in these final days leading up to the election: She [Susie Wiles, co-campaign manager for Trump] also wrote that the U.S. government has not been able to provide what the campaign views as an extensive enough plan to protect Trump. Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), a Trump ally who is on the House Intelligence Committee and the Butler assassination inquiry, wrote a letter to the Secret Service asking for military aircraft or additional protection for Trump’s private plane, according to a copy of the letter reviewed by The Post. CNN late Friday provided some further details on what exactly the Trump campaign is requesting:

“Trump’s campaign wants to use these resources – including access to military aircraft with deterrent systems to protect against surface-to-air missiles – as the former president crisscrosses the US during the final weeks of the presidential campaign.” President Joe Biden, when asked about Trump’s requests on Friday, said they should be fulfilled – “as long as he doesn’t ask for F-15s.” While mainstream media is likely to scoff at these requests, calling them “unprecedented”, it remains that it is also unprecedented that a former president who is running for the top office again should face two assassination attempts within just two months of each other, and with massive Secret Service failures to boot. Recently a foreign leader was ferried about the eastern US in a military plane: Zelensky. And Democrats didn’t bat an eye over a foreign leader getting such protections at the taxpayers’ dime, ironically enough.

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“It’s pure McCarthyism. And unethical. And it’s scaring some lawyers away.”

Group Threatening Lawyers’ Licenses If They Work For Trump (JTN)

While lawfare frequently has targeted GOP politicians, the tactic is spreading to the legal profession as a group called “The 65 Project” has taken to social media vowing to go after the licenses of attorneys who chose to work for former President Donald Trump. The 65 Project, which launched earlier this year as a “bipartisan” watchdog with both prominent Democrats and Republicans, announced it had launched digital and print advertisements in swing states such as Wisconsin and Michigan with the stark warning, “Don’t lose your law license because of Trump.” The managing director of the project said that 86 bar complaints have already been filed against attorneys who have filed election lawsuits on behalf of Trump following the 2020 election. “Across the country, lawyers who lent their credibility as officers of the court to Donald Trump to file factually and legally baseless claims to overturn legitimate election results have been investigated by state bar associations, been fined, had their licenses suspended, and even disbarred,” managing director Michael Teter said.

Following the 2020 election, Trump claimed that the election was stolen and there were multiple lawsuits filed in different states such as Georgia and Pennsylvania. While many of the lawsuits were unsuccessful, the lawfare against attorneys working for Trump or working on other election integrity cases was successful. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani who represented Trump in a Georgia election lawsuit, was disbarred in Washington, D.C. last month. This occurred just months after he lost his law license in New York. The panel that decided his license should be suspended wrote that Giuliani “claimed massive election fraud but had no evidence.” The 65 Project has a list of lawyers that it has filed ethics complaints against, including former Trump lawyer Jenna Ellis who worked on an Arizona election subversion case, Kurt Olsen who represented Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake in her 2022 election fraud case and Harvard Law School Professor Emeritus Alan Dershowitz.

Dershowitz told Just the News in a statement that what the group is doing is “pure McCarthyism.” “They already filed a complaint against me,” he said. “It’s pure McCarthyism. And unethical. And it’s scaring some lawyers away.” “The 65 Project is a bipartisan effort to protect democracy and preserve the rule of law by deterring future attacks on our electoral system,” The 65 Project said in a statement. “We are holding accountable Big Lie Lawyers who bring fraudulent and malicious lawsuits to overturn legitimate election results, and working with bar associations to revitalize the disciplinary process so that lawyers, including public officials, who subvert democracy will be punished.” Trump has argued that he has face lawfare at the federal level with lawsuits not related to election integrity, but involving his personal life and business.

Dershowitz said earlier this year on an episode of the Just the News, No Noise TV show that lawyers have been advised not to work for Trump or they would face consequences. “I know lawyers who have been asked to defend Donald Trump on First Amendment grounds,” Dershowitz said. “They would normally take the case, but they say, ‘we can’t afford it for our family because they’re coming after our bar license.'”Dershowitz said that he was seeing the return of “McCarthyism” and it is being pushed by the younger generation. Last month, Trump was found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree for his reimbursement of a $130,000 payment his then-lawyer Michael Cohen made to porn star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 presidential election. Trump had argued that this lawsuit and lawsuits on other states were part of a political witch hunt, which other GOP politicians and even some on the left have echoed.

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“So President Biden would violate the Constitution, refuse to yield to the courts, and pursue his “bucket list” of priorities without any legal restraints. All would be done in defense of democracy..”

Dems Call on Biden to Commit Unconstitutional Acts in his Final Days (Turley)

With the end of the Biden Administration in sight, liberal pundits seem to be striving to prove that the only difference between a lawbreaker and a law-abiding citizen is the ability to get away with the crime. Popular figures on the left from Michael Moore to Keith Olbermann are calling on President Joe Biden to commit overtly unlawful acts in his final 100 days in office, including targeting his political opponents. In one of the few statements of Moore with which I agree, he stated that this is “no joke.” It certainly is not. It is the same logic used by looters that they have a license for illegality. However, this constitutional looting would endanger not just the Constitution but the country as a whole if Biden were to heed this advice. In a posting on Substack, Moore told Biden that it was time to yield to temptation and check off a liberal 13-item “bucket list” of demands, tossing aside questions of legality or constitutionality in the process.

“You’re not done. You’ve still got 100 days left in office! And the Supreme Court has just granted you super powers — AND immunity! You don’t answer to anyone. For the first time in over 50 years, you don’t have to campaign for anything…“You have full immunity! No kidding! No joke! That’s not hyperbole! You can get away with anything! And what if anything means everything to the people?” The list includes emptying death row, canceling all student and medical debt, halting weapons shipments to Israel, ending the death penalty, declaring the Equal Rights Amendment a constitutional amendment, and granting clemency to nonviolent drug offenders. Many of these items could only be fulfilled by knowingly gutting the Constitution and assuming the powers of a monarch. That includes just canceling all student and medical debt in defiance of both the courts and Congress. As discussed in my most recent column, others have added to that bucket list.

Take Olbermann who, while insisting that he is fighting to “save democracy,” has called upon Biden to target political opponents like Elon Musk with deportation: “If we can’t do that by conventional means, President Biden, you have presidential immunity. Get Elon Musk the F out of our country and do it now.” These calls come in the midst of a counter-constitutional movement led by law professors. Moreover, the disregard for such legal authority has been voiced by liberal academics like Harvard Professor Lawrence Tribe. Indeed, his past “just do it” approach was not dissimilar in advice to Biden. For example, the Biden administration was found to have violated the Constitution in its imposition of a nationwide eviction moratorium through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Biden admitted that his White House counsel and most legal experts told him the move was unconstitutional. But he ignored their advice and went with that of Harvard University Professor Laurence Tribe, the one person who would tell him what he wanted to hear. It was, of course, then quickly found to be unconstitutional.

The false premise of the recent calls is that the Court removed all limits on the presidency in its recent ruling on presidential immunity. The fact that law professors are repeating this clearly erroneous claim is a measure of the triumph of rage over reason today. As I have previously written, I am not someone who has favored expansive presidential powers. As a Madisonian scholar, I favor Congress in most disputes with presidents. However, I saw good-faith arguments on both sides of this case and the Court adopted a middle road on immunity — rejecting the extreme positions of both the Trump team and the lower court. As I previously wrote, the Court followed a familiar approach: The Court found that there was absolute immunity for actions that fall within their “exclusive sphere of constitutional authority” while they enjoy presumptive immunity for other official acts. They do not enjoy immunity for unofficial, or private, actions.

[..] So President Biden would violate the Constitution, refuse to yield to the courts, and pursue his “bucket list” of priorities without any legal restraints. All would be done in defense of democracy. It shows how the line between tyranny and democracy can be lost in an age of rage.

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Brzezinski.

If Israel Attacks Iran, Russia Is Not Going to Stay on the Sideline (Whitney)

“I don’t think there is an implicit obligation for the United States to follow like a stupid mule whatever the Israelis do. If they decide to start a war, simply on the assumption that we’ll automatically be drawn into it, I think it is the obligation of friendship to say, ‘you’re not going to be making a national decision for us.’ I think that the United States has the right to have its own national security policy.” -Zbigniew Brzezinski. The US foreign policy establishment used to include men who were capable of strategic thinking. No more. What passes for strategic thinking now is the endless reiteration of Israeli talking points uttered by retired generals who are owned by the weapons industry and the Israeli lobby. These men—who represent the views of an infinitesimal percentage of the overall population—are an essential part of the larger machine that prepares the public for intervention, escalation and war.

Their current assignment is to convince the American people that Israel’s impending attack on Iran serves America’s national security interests which, of course, it doesn’t. In fact, the country is being boondoggled into a bloody conflagration that will, in all probability, precipitate a sharp decline in US global power followed by a swift end to the so-called American Century. All of this was forecast by one of America’s most scholarly foreign policy analysts, Zbigniew Brzezinski, who delievered a warning on the topic of Iran more than a decade ago in an op-ed in the Los Angeles Times. Here’s what he said: “….an attack on Iran would be an act of political folly, setting in motion a progressive upheaval in world affairs. With the U.S. increasingly the object of widespread hostility, the era of American preponderance could even come to a premature end. Although the United States is clearly dominant in the world at the moment, it has neither the power nor the domestic inclination to impose and then to sustain its will in the face of protracted and costly resistance….”

It is therefore high time for the administration to sober up and think strategically, with a historic perspective and the U.S…. It’s time to cool the rhetoric. The United States should not be guided by emotions or a sense of a religiously inspired mission… our choice is either to be stampeded into a reckless adventure profoundly damaging to long-term U.S. national interests or to become serious about giving negotiations with Iran a genuine chance….. Treating Iran with respect and within a historical perspective would help to advance that objective. American policy should not be swayed by the current contrived atmosphere of urgency ominously reminiscent of what preceded the misguided intervention in Iraq.” Been there, done that, Zbigniew Brzezinski, LA Times. Well said. One can only wish that the lamebrain pundits on cable news would circulate the article among themselves.

Like him or hate him, Brzezinski provided a coherent, well-researched analysis that dispassionately evaluated whether the costs of a particular operation were greater than the benefits. In this case, there is simply no comparison. The US is rushing towards a conflict that serves no national interest, that it can’t win, and that will have a catastrophic impact on the nation’s future. Here’s Brzezinski again: “We do not need to increase the scale of the conflict in the region because an increase in that conflict involving the Iranians …would likely reignite the conflict in Iraq, would set the Persian Gulf ablaze, would increase the price of oil 2-fold, 3-fold, 4-fold…Europe would become even more dependent on Russia for its energy…. So, what is the benefit to us?

All I know as an analyst of international politics is (a war with Iran) this would be a disaster. And, frankly, I think it will be a disaster for us more than for Israel because, as a result of the war…. we will be forced out of the region… because of the dynamic hatred that develops. And, have no illusions about it, if the conflict spreads, we’re going to be alone… And if we are driven out, how much would you bet on the survival of Israel for more than five or ten years?” Zbigniew Brzezinski, Real News Network, 2:15 min. So, it would not just be disastrous for the United States, but disastrous for Israel as well, which—absent Washington’s “unconditional” support—would wither on the vine in 5 or 10 years. Perhaps, there are some who would disagree with this analysis? Perhaps there are some who think that a tiny belligerent colony at the heart of the Arab world—that has made every effort to make itself a damned nuisance for the last 75 years—could survive without US assistance?

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Oh, great..

US Troops Will Deploy To Israel – Pentagon (RT)

The US has ordered the deployment of a THAAD air defense system to Israel, along with a crew of American service members to operate it, Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder announced on Sunday. The move marks the first deployment of US combat troops on Israeli soil since the Israel-Hamas war began last year. According to Ryder, the THAAD battery “and associated crew of US military personnel” will be stationed in Israel “to help bolster Israel’s air defenses following Iran’s unprecedented attacks against Israel on April 13 and again on October 1.” US President Joe Biden, who the White House previously said had “no plans or intentions to put US boots on the ground in combat,” ordered the deployment, Ryder stated. The THAAD, or Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, is a mobile anti-ballistic missile system designed to detect and intercept ballistic missiles during their descent stage.

It fires a non-explosive projectile at eight times the speed of sound, relying on kinetic energy to destroy incoming missiles. A THAAD battery consists of 95 soldiers and six truck-mounted launchers capable of firing a total of 48 interceptors. The US deployed a THAAD battery to Saudi Arabia after the Israel-Hamas war began last October, and to Israel on a training exercise in 2019. However, neither the system nor the American troops who operate it have been sent to Israel since the current conflict began. While American soldiers took part in a brief aid mission off the coast of Gaza earlier this year, they did not set foot in the Palestinian enclave. The deployment comes as Israel prepares its response to an Iranian missile attack on October 1, in which around 200 ballistic missiles were fired at Israeli military targets. Tehran maintains that the strike was a “legitimate” response to Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and a senior Iranian general in Beirut.

Israel is widely expected to target Iran’s oil or nuclear infrastructure, although the US has advised West Jerusalem against either choice. Whatever form the Israeli response takes, Iran has vowed to retaliate. Earlier this week, a source in Tehran told RT that this retaliation would be “proportionate.” Should West Jerusalem target Iran’s oil infrastructure, Tehran will respond by striking Israel’s oil refineries. Attacks on other infrastructure, such as power plants or nuclear facilities, will likewise prompt retaliatory strikes on corresponding installations in Israel, the source explained. Hours before Ryder’s announcement, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi warned that the US is putting the “lives of its troops at risk by deploying them to operate US missile systems in Israel.” “While we have made tremendous efforts in recent days to contain an all-out war in our region, I say it clearly that we have no red lines in defending our people and interests,” Araghchi added.

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UNIFIL has been there since 1978.

Netanyahu Orders UN To Evacuate Lebanon Peacekeepers (RT)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has demanded that UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres withdraw UNIFIL peacekeepers from southern Lebanon, adding that by remaining there they are “providing a human shield to Hezbollah terrorists.” In a Hebrew-language video message posted to social media on Sunday, Netanyahu told Guterres “it is time for you to withdraw UNIFIL from Hezbollah strongholds and from the areas of combat.” “The IDF has repeatedly asked for this, and has been met with repeated refusals, all aimed at providing a human shield to Hezbollah terrorists,” he continued. UNIFIL, or the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, was formed in 1978 to oversee the withdrawal of Israeli forces to below the so-called ‘blue line’, which separates Lebanon from Israel and the occupied Golan Heights.

Headquartered in the town of Naqoura, UNIFIL is currently composed of around 10,000 troops from around 50 countries, who are tasked with monitoring the demilitarization of southern Lebanon between the blue line and the Litani River. Israel maintains that UNIFIL has done nothing to prevent Hezbollah entrenching itself in this region, while preventing its own forces from responding to the threat. In the weeks since the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) crossed the blue line and entered southern Lebanon, UNIFIL has claimed that Israeli forces have repeatedly hit its bases and outposts. Four Sri Lankan and Indonesian peacekeepers were injured on Thursday and Friday when Israeli tanks fired on their watchtowers, UNIFIL said. Another was hit by gunfire at Naqoura later on Friday, although UNIFIL said that it could not identify the origin of the fire.

IDF bulldozers have demolished UNIFIL walls and bunkers, while a contingent of Irish peacekeepers found themselves surrounded by Israeli tanks earlier this week when they refused the IDF’s demand that they leave their outpost. Switching to English, Netanyahu told Guterres to “get the UNIFIL forces out of harm’s way. It should be done right now, immediately.” “Your refusal to evacuate the UNIFIL soldiers makes them hostages of Hezbollah,” he continued, warning that “this endangers both them and the lives of our soldiers.” UNIFIL has refused to withdraw from its positions, and in a joint statement on Saturday, 40 countries contributing to the mission called on Israel to investigate the attacks on peacekeepers. One day earlier, the leaders of France, Italy, and Spain expressed “outrage” at the attacks, and accused Israel of violating UN Security Council resolution 1701, which states that its forces cannot operate in southern Lebanon.

Netanyahu said that Israel “regrets” injuring the peacekeepers, but added that the “simple and obvious” way to prevent further bloodshed is “just get them out of the danger zone.” Israel escalated its military campaign against Hezbollah last month, pounding Beirut with a wave of airstrikes including one that killed the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. A ground invasion followed, and the death toll in Lebanon currently stands at over 2,100, according to the country’s Health Ministry. The IDF has acknowledged the deaths of two dozen of its soldiers in Lebanon, although Hezbollah insists that the true scale of Israel’s losses is far higher.

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“..Israel would expand “little by little” and eventually encompass all Palestinian territories as well as Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia..”

Israel Finance Minister Calls For Borders To Extend To Damascus (MEE)

Far-right Israeli Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich has drawn criticism for calling for Israel to expand its borders to Damascus in a recent documentary. In an interview for the documentary, In Israel: Ministers of Chaos, produced by European public service channel, Arte, Smotrich claimed that Israel would expand “little by little” and eventually encompass all Palestinian territories as well as Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. “It is written that the future of Jerusalem is to expand to Damascus,” he said, citing the “greater Israel” ideology, which envisions the expansion of the state across the Middle East. Jordan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the incendiary remarks saying that they highlighted Smotrich’s dangerous and “racist” ideology. Smotrich previously cited the concept at a memorial service for a Likud activist in Paris.

When speaking from a podium decorated with a map of Israel that included Jordan, he claimed that there was “no such thing” as the Palestinian people. The French foreign ministry subsequently announced that government representatives in Paris did not intend to meet with Smotrich during his visit to the country. Aside from being the finance minister, Smotrich now holds significant powers over the occupied West Bank. In August, Smotrich expressed support for blocking aid to Gaza, saying that: “Nobody will let us cause two million civilians to die of hunger even though it might be justified and moral until our hostages are returned.” At the end of February, the minister said that the state of Israel should “wipe out” the Palestinian village of Huwwara, after it was subjected to a violent rampage by Israeli settlers.

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“..the World War II-era massacre of tens of thousands of ethnic Poles by Ukrainian ultranationalists lionized by the post-2014 regime in Kiev..”

Zelensky ‘Left Seething’ After Meeting With Polish Minister (Sp.)

Poland’s political class has generally been at the forefront of powers cheerleading Ukraine’s entry into Western institutions including NATO and the European Union, notwithstanding underlying tensions over the World War II-era massacre of tens of thousands of ethnic Poles by Ukrainian ultranationalists lionized by the post-2014 regime in Kiev. Volodymyr Zelensky was reportedly “left seething” after last month’s meeting with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, who impeded the Kiev regime’s aspirations to join the EU by tying the issue to demands that ethnic Poles killed by Ukrainian fascists during WWII be exhumed from their final resting places in what is now western Ukraine. Sources told Bloomberg about the tensions, which are said to have coincided “with mounting war fatigue” among Kiev’s Western sponsors, and growing uncertainty over post-2014 Ukraine’s constitutionally-mandated pursuit of membership in the EU and NATO.

As many as 100,000 ethnic Polish civilians and tens of thousands of Russians, Jews, anti-fascist Ukrainians were murdered en masse by members of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (Ukrainian acronym UPA) – an ultranationalist militia operating in Nazi-occupied western Ukraine during the second World War. Killings and terrorism largely took place between 1943-1944, but continued into the early 1950s. Between 100,000 and 200,000 Ukrainians would fight in the UPA, compared to over six million who served in the Red Army. In post-2005 Orange Revolution Ukraine and especially after 2014, UPA leaders Stepan Bandera and Roman Shukhevych have been idolized as heroes and fighters for Ukraine’s independence, with monuments erected in their honor and streets renamed to carry their names in cities across the country.

Former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich revoked his predecessor’s decision to posthumously award Bandera and Shukhevych ‘hero of Ukraine’ titles in 2011 prior to his ouster in a coup three years later. Polish Minister of Defense and Deputy Prime Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz announced publicly last week that Kiev “will not join the EU if it does not address the Volyn issue, if there is no accord, no exhumations and no remembrance.” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk hinted as much at a press conference in August, saying “there is a need to dig into this history [of the WWII-era massacres, ed.] if we are about to build a good future,” and warning that “as long as there is no respect for those standards from the Ukrainian side, then Ukraine will certainly not become part of the European family.”

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“If there is a direct conflict with NATO, it will immediately go nuclear, and everybody knows this.”

West Sacrificing Economy, Military Readiness to Back Ukraine (Sp.)

The United States and its European allies are destroying their own militaries and economies to fight an increasingly futile crusade against Russia, according to Serbian-American journalist Nebojsa Malic. The analyst joined Sputnik’s The Backstory program recently to comment on the ongoing Ukraine proxy war as voters in Western countries increasingly turn against the quixotic effort. “The enthusiasm for Ukraine in America is just about tapped out after these two hurricanes and the disastrous damage they’ve inflicted, and the fact that it took a week for anybody to even notice that North Carolina and Tennessee are facing biblical floods,” said Malic. “That’s basically the vibe in America that I can see from here: no more, not a penny more to Ukraine.” “The Pentagon is drawing on its [weapons] stockpiles as much as they can,” the analyst claimed. “It’s not the issue of, ‘oh, send everything.’ They are sending everything. This is everything they can spare.”

“Ten days ago when the Iranians fired all of those missiles at Israel apparently the US ships that were stationed there fired off 12 interceptors, not to very much effect from what I could see. And it turns out that’s the entire annual production. They’re making 12 missiles a year. So, it’s not like they have something to send. They’re already raiding the US armory as it is.” The Ukraine proxy war has shed light on the weaknesses of Western militaries as the US and its allies have struggled to continue to arm Kiev. A report earlier this year revealed that Russia is producing three times more artillery than the United States and its European partners combined. The conflict has brought the two competing models of defense production into stark relief, with privatized Western military contractors unable to produce arms in the same quantities as Moscow’s state-owned production industry.

Western military planners are also not accustomed to waging a large-scale war against a formidable opponent like Russia, a fact tacitly admitted as the US military began a massive restructuring this year to prepare for a possible war against China in the Pacific theater. Western armed forces have most recently focused on counterinsurgency strategies against resistance forces in the Middle East. Russia has meanwhile proven itself capable of quickly adapting amid its special military operation, even as the US and European countries like the UK and Germany send Kiev their top-of-the-line equipment. “Most people in the West can’t even conceive of this scale and intensity of warfare,” Malic claimed. “Western militaries aren’t built for it.” The Ukraine proxy war has shed light on the weaknesses of Western militaries as the US and its allies have struggled to continue to arm Kiev.

A report earlier this year revealed that Russia is producing three times more artillery than the United States and its European partners combined. The conflict has brought the two competing models of defense production into stark relief, with privatized Western military contractors unable to produce arms in the same quantities as Moscow’s state-owned production industry. Western military planners are also not accustomed to waging a large-scale war against a formidable opponent like Russia, a fact tacitly admitted as the US military began a massive restructuring this year to prepare for a possible war against China in the Pacific theater. Western armed forces have most recently focused on counterinsurgency strategies against resistance forces in the Middle East. Russia has meanwhile proven itself capable of quickly adapting amid its special military operation, even as the US and European countries like the UK and Germany send Kiev their top-of-the-line equipment.

“Most people in the West can’t even conceive of this scale and intensity of warfare,” Malic claimed. “Western militaries aren’t built for it.” “I remember reputable military experts warning five, six, ten years ago when they were trying to ramp up military spending in the West that NATO has the capability to fight for maybe two weeks,” he continued, noting the resources required to build costly Western equipment like Abrams tanks. “That was two and a half years ago, and now they’ve depleted all of their armories and all of their ammunition stocks, and now you have to wonder whether they still have the ability to fight for two weeks.” “If there is a direct conflict with NATO, it will immediately go nuclear, and everybody knows this.”

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“..it was under Stoltenberg that NATO, pursuing irrational “expansion to the East,” reached its current stage of weakness, demoralization, and disunity..”

Stoltenberg Stupidly Celebrates His Own Failure To Achieve Security (SCF)

Jens Stoltenberg is finally no longer the leader. This is not necessarily good news, as the new secretary general appears to be even more bellicose than the previous one and promises policies that could easily lead to strategic disaster in the current tensions between the Atlantic alliance and the Russian Federation. However, it is undeniable that one of the worst administrations in NATO’s history – and the one that came closest to an open confrontation with Moscow – has now ended. Stoltenberg has recently made a number of statements praising his supposed “achievements” as NATO leader. He claims that under his leadership the alliance has achieved its highest numbers of troops on the eastern flank. Stoltenberg has also acclaimed himself for his success in allowing countries such as Finland and Sweden to join NATO as well as significantly expanding the number of troops on combat readiness for the event of a war.

In fact, Stoltenberg seems to be delighting over his own failure. It was under him that NATO saw the start of the continent’s biggest conflict since the World Wars in Europe, reaching a critical point in the regional security architecture. These tensions, which could at any moment escalate to the level of an open war with direct Western involvement, are precisely the consequence of the irresponsible policies implemented during Stoltenberg’s disastrous administration. NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe, both in terms of new members and available troops, is not something to be celebrated, but rather lamented. It was precisely this expansion that led to the current conflict. If Stoltenberg were indeed a rational, prudent leader with a strong strategic sense, he would have been able to use diplomacy with the member countries and negotiate a de-escalation of the suicidal policy of “containment” against Russia.

But, on the contrary, Stoltenberg endorsed all this and was active in worsening the Ukraine crisis, contributing significantly to the escalation of tensions and the beginning of the current war. More than that, he failed to stop the warmongering of the member states, allowing NATO to begin full support for the Kiev regime. This support is now at its most critical point, as the alliance’s countries are close to authorizing the use of long-range weapons against Russian civilian targets – which could lead to a nuclear world war. Stoltenberg, even now out of office, is partly to blame for this, as it was under his administration that this anti-Russian madness was launched by NATO.

Furthermore, it must be emphasized that the alliance has never been so fragile. Contrary to what Western war propaganda claims, anti-Russian policies are not strategically beneficial for NATO. On the contrary, in addition to threatening global peace, these measures put the very stability of the alliance at risk. NATO is not “stronger and more united than ever,” as the former secretary general says, but at its most fragile and delicate phase in history. On the battlefield, Russian forces destroy NATO equipment – and troops disguised as “mercenaries” – every day. The U.S. and Europe no longer have the capacity to continue supporting Kiev continuously, given the large number of losses on the front lines, but at the same time, the alliance is unable to end this support, falling into a vicious cycle of violence and defeats.

In addition, countries dissatisfied with the situation, such as Hungary and Slovakia, are already beginning to create a dissident position within NATO itself, threatening the bloc’s long-term stability. In the end, it was under Stoltenberg that NATO, pursuing irrational “expansion to the East,” reached its current stage of weakness, demoralization, and disunity. And, to make matters even more catastrophic, an open world war could yet emerge as a belated consequence of NATO’s actions over the past ten years. Instead of celebrating his own failure as a leader, Stoltenberg should simply be grateful that he had the opportunity to leave office before the worst-case scenario arose.

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For 17 days last December… And they did nothing.

US Failed To Stop Mystery Drones Over Military Sites – WSJ (RT)

An unidentified fleet of drones potentially spied on a US military airbase in Virginia after intruding into restricted airspace for 17 days last December, with the Pentagon powerless to stop them, the Wall Street Journal has revealed. Swarms of drones were detected flying over Langley Air Force Base on Virginia’s shoreline – one of the select US bases hosting F-22 Raptor stealth fighters – the WSJ reported on Saturday, citing dozens of US officials, police reports, and court documents. Former US Air Force General Mark Kelly, who was made aware of the incursions in December, estimated the lead unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to be “roughly 20 feet long, flying at more than 100 miles an hour, at an altitude of approximately 3,000 to 4,000 feet,” with other drones following. The drones flew in a pattern of one or two fixed-wing units accompanied by smaller quadcopters, roughly the size of 20-pound commercial drones, often operating at a lower altitude, the report said.

The dozens of drones moved south across Chesapeake Bay toward Norfolk and the base housing the US Navy’s SEAL Team Six special operations unit, as well as Naval Station Norfolk – a large naval port, Kelly noted. When news reached the White House, officials reportedly attempted to brainstorm a response. Military radars – tuned to detect larger military aircraft and to ignore anything resembling a bird –often failed to pick up the drones and needed recalibration. The offending quadcopters were also controlled on a radio frequency unavailable to off-the-shelf drones. Police attempted to pursue the drones, tracking their movements, but ultimately failed to identify their owners. Authorities were skeptical about bringing the UAVs down. Federal law bars the military from shooting down drones near military bases unless they pose an immediate threat – which does not include aerial spying, the WSJ wrote.

Jamming the drones was considered risky to local 911 emergency systems and Wi-Fi networks. Using directed energy weapons to shoot them down was viewed as too much of a risk to commercial aircraft. The flights ceased on December 23 and the perpetrators remain a mystery, according to the report. Authorities failed to determine who was responsible for the flights but were reportedly convinced that the unprecedented incursion was too complex to have been orchestrated by hobbyists. It is not the only case of unidentified drones being spotted over critical US infrastructure. Two months prior, five drones were reportedly detected over the Nevada National Security Site, a US nuclear testing facility outside Las Vegas. Officials have yet to identify those behind the incursion.

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Yes, there are some curious links.

Unholy Coincidences Between The Security State And Lone Wolf Assassins (Carman)

Polybius, one of the earliest historians to write about the cyclical nature of politics and history, once stated, “Since the masses of the people are inconstant, full of unruly desires, passionate, and reckless of consequences, they must be filled with fears to keep them in order. The ancients did well, therefore, to invent gods and the belief in punishment after death.” Just look at the modern news cycle for proof of how this tactic persists today. The relevance of Polybius’ insight becomes even more pertinent when you consider that he wrote it during the decline of the Hellenistic empire—just as it was collapsing into the black hole of history—and holy sh*t that’s eerily applicable as we watch the fall of U.S. hegemony in real time. Western society’s fixation on the self and the use of scare tactics by institutions to maintain control inevitably leads to deceptions surrounding the conspiratorial and collaborative causes of events designed to induce fear. The narrative often attributes the cause of disruptive events to a “disturbed” individual, to wholly deflect from the all-encompassing truth, which, on the whole, is often far more disturbing.

Take, for example, the first assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. The official narrative of Crooks, a lone teenage gunman—disturbed, of course—crumbles under scrutiny. The behaviour of the security detail that day, the delayed response after the threat was identified, and the gunman’s ability to get into position, firearm and ladder in hand, are all deeply suspicious. That he appeared in a Blackrock promo video only raises further questions. We’ll get to the role of “banksters” soon enough, but citizen journalists have uncovered links between the gunman and phone calls to an FBI office, both months and days before Trump’s Pennsylvania rally. Only a conspiracy nut could conjure such nonsense that the security state may have been involved because, of course, it’s highly regular for most teenagers to be involved in some capacity with Blackrock and the FBI, and only a wholly rabbitholed kook could see the cyclical pattern of this narrative.

Consider Lee Harvey Oswald, perhaps the most famous “disturbed” lonewolf of all. We’re asked to believe that this unhinged man somehow outsmarted an entire Secret Service detail to assassinate a president he claimed to admire. Oddly, Oswald’s little green address book notes that Kennedy wasn’t even his intended target, suggesting that the death of arguably the most popular president in U.S. history might have been accidental. Coincidentally, Oswald, a former Marine, allegedly defected to the USSR after becoming disillusioned with American propaganda. His own writings suggest he was on a secret mission for the CIA, working as an informant within Russia. Whether or not this is true, Oswald’s links to the military-industrial complex should be a glaring red flag to anyone with critical faculties. How many people have even minor connections to the security state? Probably less than 0.01%, yet these ties keep emerging in case after case involving infamous, high-profile assassins.

The connections between Charles Manson, MKUltra, and the security state were long dismissed as conspiracy theory. But documents now confirm Manson’s involvement in MKUltra, as well as his curious meetings with his parole officer—who, it turns out, shared office space with one of the program’s leaders. Despite multiple parole violations, Manson was never returned to prison. Why? The security state’s best-case motive seems to be that they allowed Manson to cultivate a murderous cult to sow fear. The establishment feared that groups like the Black Panthers, along with the anti-war movement in Hollywood, posed a threat to the old institutions of power. So, they induced a climate of fear within the people to prevent unity, utilising identity politics and racial baiting to create division and distrust, destroying any mounting threat to the old hegemony. Does this tactic sound familiar?

Similarly, the cycle of disturbed young men committing atrocities to terrify the public remains a powerful tool of control. Look at Timothy McVeigh and the Oklahoma City bombing. The official narrative paints McVeigh as a white supremacist and anti-government extremist. Yet, paradoxically, his actions seemed to do the government a favour. Some sources claim crucial documents tied to the Whitewater scandal—which could have led to the indictment of the Clintons—were conveniently lost in the explosion. Unsurprisingly, the bombing also served as a pretext for the government to crack down on anti-establishment groups, which had grown in response to events like Waco and Ruby Ridge. If we subscribe to the theory that the cause is manufactured to justify the “consequence,” which usually relates to tighter government control, it’s easy to question the official version of events.

The key point, however, as with Oswald and Manson, is that yet again McVeigh had ties to the military-industrial complex and the CIA. In a letter to his sister, McVeigh claimed he was recruited into a secret black-ops team involved in smuggling drugs into the United States to fund covert activities and was “to work hand-in-hand with civilian police agencies to quiet anyone whom was deemed a security risk.” His co-conspirator, Terry Nichols, backed up the claims, alleging that an FBI agent, Larry A. Potts, oversaw these activities. While there’s no definitive proof, the coincidence is striking: yet another “disturbed” man with connections to the security state. What are the chances?

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“The mandate for Trudeau’s government expires at the end of October 2025..”

Canada’s Dissenting Liberal MPs Seek to Topple Trudeau (Sp.)

A faction of disgruntled lawmakers from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s own governing Liberal Party is coordinating efforts to oust him as their leader, reported CBC News. “At least 20″ dissenting MPs have reportedly signed the document urging leadership change, with others voicing their support, in a joint call for Trudeau to resign, according to the outlet. Trudeau has been teetering on the ropes since the humiliating by-election loss of two strongholds in Toronto (to the Conservatives) and Montreal (to Bloc Québécois). Pressure to relinquish his hold on the Liberal Party has also grown amid his government’s free fall in the polls. At 41.6%, Pierre Poilievre and his Conservative Party are more than 20 points ahead of the Liberal Party, as reflected in numbers released by Nanos Research earlier in the month.

The top issues of concern for Canadians remain the soaring cost of living, housing affordability, skyrocketing prices and immigration. Last month, the New Democratic Party (NDP) pulled the plug on its support for Trudeau, exiting a 2022 “supply and confidence” deal. The arrangement had offered confidence votes to the PM’s minority government, in exchange for support on key issues. Despite being decimated in the polls, Trudeau has dug in, saying he is “not going anywhere.” The Liberal government has already survived two non-confidence votes. The Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois voted against a Conservative motion that called for MPs to declare they have lost faith in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his nine-year-old government several weeks ago. The mandate for Trudeau’s government expires at the end of October 2025, and media reports have made no bones about the Liberals’ defeat at the next general election.

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Enjoyed reading this.

Titan of Business, Friend of Strays: The legendary Ratan Tata (Chowdhury)

It’s rare – and rather beautiful – when an industrialist is remembered not for his net worth or assets left behind, but for his empathy and big heart. Such was the life led by Indian business tycoon and philanthropist Ratan Tata, who passed away late on October 9. With his death, India lost a visionary industrialist. Budding entrepreneurs lost their biggest source of inspiration. Humanity lost a beacon of selfless compassion. The stray dogs of the country lost their biggest champion. “I’d like to be remembered as a person who made a difference. Not anything more, not anything else.” These were among the many wise words he often regaled the world with. And what a difference he made. He’s left behind a wake of mourners, shaken by the loss of a kind soul who loved humans and animals alike.

Most of India didn’t have the good fortune to have met him, yet his death feels like a devastating personal loss to all who knew of him. His impact was felt not only in the companies he nurtured, but also in the values of integrity, ethics and nation-building he championed. Besides playing the role of one of India’s greatest nation-builders, Mr Tata was instrumental in raising Indian industry to the heights it commands today. He joined the Tata Group – founded by his great-grandfather Jamsetji Tata – as an intern in 1962 and made his way to the top, gradually establishing himself as a visionary industrialist who transformed the Indian conglomerate into a global powerhouse. “Take the stones people throw at you and use them to build a monument,” said the man who spearheaded a series of bold international acquisitions like Jaguar Land Rover, Tetley Tea, General Chemical, Corus Steel, Brunner Mond and Daewoo. What were considered the heydays of Air India were under Mr Tata’s chairmanship.

From the launch of Tata Nano, the world’s most affordable car, to investments in a number of startups to kickstart their contribution towards the Indian job market, his contributions towards pushing the country forward were unparalleled. And in a world of loud, limelight-hogging CEOs, Mr Tata was a quiet, transformative force who redefined leadership. Reinforcing this statement was a way of life he believed in: “The best leaders are those most interested in surrounding themselves with assistants and associates smarter than they are.” Beyond the boardroom, Mr. Tata’s legacy is shaped by his myriad philanthropic endeavours. He transformed millions of lives in India through his commitment to social causes, rooted in his family’s long-standing tradition of promoting societal progress. And through Tata Trusts – one of India’s oldest charitable institutions – he championed healthcare, education, sanitation, rural development, animal welfare and skill development.

Despite the Tata Group boasting a market cap of over US$400 billion, Mr Tata is never named on any list of the world’s top billionaires. This is because he has donated over US$110 billion of his wealth, and his family contributes 65% of their income to various causes. One of his many defining moments came during the Covid-19 pandemic when, in 2020, Tata Sons and Tata Trusts together pledged Rs 15 billion ($178 million) towards efforts to fight the virus, including the donation of personal protective equipment, testing kits and healthcare infrastructure. In 2021, Tata Trusts – managed by Mr Tata then as an active member of the family – emerged the global leader on the charitable front, according to the EdelGive Hurun Philanthropists of the Century report. Moreover, in the 2023 financial year, the total disbursals made by the organisation stood at Rs 4.56 billion ($54 million), the latest annual report of Tata Trusts shows.

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Mechazilla


https://twitter.com/i/status/1845446512584626586

 

 

Elon mistake

 

 

Crane

 

 

Penguin
https://twitter.com/i/status/1845084459357569290

 

 

 

 

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Mar 012019
 


Salvador Dali Eggs on the plate (without the plate) 1932

 

Tax Cuts A Year Later – Did They Deliver? (Roberts)
The Death Of Cash Has Been Greatly Exaggerated – Look At The $100 Bill (MW)
China Trade Talks Made ‘Fantastic’ Progress Last Week -Kudlow (CNBC)
China’s Shadow Debt Burden Much Larger Than Believed (ZH)
Growing China Downdraft Chills Asia Factory Activity (R.)
CPAC On Socialism, Bernie Sanders And 2020: ‘Trump Will Win, 100%’ (G.)
Claim Trump Had Prior Knowledge Of WikiLeaks Fails Hilariously (Dore)
Trump Says Cohen Lied ‘95% Instead Of 100%’ In Testimony To Congress (G.)
The Case That Could Bring Down Canada’s Justin Trudeau (G.)
Anti-Maduro Allies Regroup After The Fight For Humanitarian Aid (CNBC)
Disclosing Subpoena for Testimony, Chelsea Manning Vows to Fight (NYT)
The Grey Wall Of China: Inside The World’s Concrete Superpower (G.)

 

 

Well, they delivered something. But that’s a much bigger topic than just tax cuts, that’s Fed policy.

Lance is trying to utterly confuse us with an absolute overkill of graphs all in one place. But the gist is clear.

Tax Cuts A Year Later – Did They Deliver? (Roberts)

I received a lot of push back on my views when the “mainstream” analysis was the tax cuts would jump start economic growth. Of course, with 2017’s Q1 economic growth coming in at a meager 0.7% annualized, it would certainly seem to be needed. But as I questioned then: “Do tax reductions lead to higher economic growth, employment and incomes over the long-term as promised?” Speaking to NBC’s Meet the Press, VP Mike Pence argued at the time he was confident that eventually, the deficit would decline as it would be overcome by surging economic “growth” thanks to the tax cuts it will fund. [..] As shown in the chart below, changes to tax rates have a very limited impact on economic growth over the longer term.

Reagan’s tax cuts were effective because they were “timely” due to the economic, fiscal, and valuation backdrop which is diametrically opposed to the situation today. “Importantly, as has been stated, the proposed tax cut by President-elect Trump will be the largest since Ronald Reagan. However, in order to make valid assumptions on the potential impact of the tax cut on the economy, earnings and the markets, we need to review the differences between the Reagan and Trump eras. My colleague, Michael Lebowitz, recently penned the following on this exact issue.

‘Many investors are suddenly comparing Trump’s economic policy proposals to those of Ronald Reagan. For those that deem that bullish, we remind you that the economic environment and potential growth of 1982 was vastly different than it is today.” [..] The differences with today’s economic and market environment could not be starker. The tailwinds provided by initial deregulation, consumer leveraging, declining interest rates, and inflation provided huge tailwinds for corporate profitability growth. The chart below shows the ramp up in government debt since Reagan versus subsequent economic growth and tax rates.

While wages did rise marginally over the last, due more to tightness in the labor market rather than tax cuts, corporations failed to share the wealth. In fact, the ratio of profits to workers wages have materially worsened since the enactment of tax cuts.

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Going to the mattresses. To be honest, it’s always been clear that trying turn the US into a cashless society is the stuff for revolution.

The Death Of Cash Has Been Greatly Exaggerated – Look At The $100 Bill (MW)

The stock market is coming off its best January in years, the economy appears to be holding up well, interest rates are still low, cryptos and mobile payments continue to gain traction — it’s not exactly a cash-friendly climate at the moment. Then what’s going on with the $100 bill? A decade ago, $20 and $1 bills were both far more prevalent than the Benjamins. As you can see by this chart from Deutsche Bank’s Torsten Slok, the currency hierarchy has shifted dramatically since then.

In 2017, the $100 bill took the crown as the most popular U.S. bill, doubling since 2007, which has helped drive the sharp rise in currency and other liquid assets as a share of GDP:

But why? Deutsche Bank’s Slok mulled a few possibilities. “It could be driven by a global fear of negative interest rates in Europe and Japan,” he said. “Or it could be a savings vehicle for U.S. households worried about another financial crisis, or it could be driven by more demand from the global underground economy.” Of course, we know it’s not because more people are using the $100 bill as pocket money. Smaller bills are still far more popular in that regard. Just look at the average lifespan of each bill:

So what’s that telling us? Mattresses everywhere are getting increasingly stuffed with $100 bills instead of being put to work in the stock market or elsewhere. That speaks to the frame of mind of the Average Joe as much as anything else.

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“Lighthizer said after the testimony [..] that formal steps would be taken to abandon plans of raising tariffs on Chinese goods.”

China Trade Talks Made ‘Fantastic’ Progress Last Week -Kudlow (CNBC)

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said Thursday that trade talks between the U.S. and China are going great, noting the two countries are making “fantastic” progress in meetings last week. “Last week was fantastic,” Kudlow told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “We’re making great headway on nontariff barriers and tariffs regarding various commodities such as soybeans and energy and beef. We have mechanisms with regard to enforcement, which is -I think- unparalleled.” “The progress has been terrific,” Kudlow added. But “we have to hear from the Chinese side. We have to hear from President Xi Jinping, of course. I think we’re headed for a remarkable, historic deal.” U.S. equities briefly pared some of their losses following Kudlow’s remarks.

Kudlow also said China has expressed willingness to make key structural changes to prevent intellectual property theft, a highly contested issue in these negotiations. Kudlow’s comments follow testimony from Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. trade representative. Lighthizer told members of the House Ways and Means Committee that China needed to do more than just buy more U.S. goods for the two countries to strike a permanent trade deal. But Lighthizer said after the testimony, according to The Wall Street Journal, that formal steps would be taken to abandon plans of raising tariffs on Chinese goods. This is a clear signal that a trade deal could come in the near future. “Lighthizer has worked miracles on this Chinese deal,” Kudlow said. “We’ve never come this far on China trade.”

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News item by news item my long held ideas of the importance of the shadow banks for China’s official growth numbers are being confirmed.

China’s Shadow Debt Burden Much Larger Than Believed (ZH)

[..] a team of S&P credit analysts warned in an October report that China’s debt burden might be much larger than previously believed. Against a backdrop of soaring corporate defaults, the team from S&P warned that investors could safely tack on another ~40% of debt/GDP to China’s total (with even more likely hidden from view) after a careful analysis of a new source of shadow debt being tapped by local governments to further their development plans. These Local Government Financing Vehicles, or LGFVs, represented “an iceberg with titanic credit risks” as local officials had increasingly turned to these sources of shadow financing to finance development projects while bureaucrats in Beijing struggled to turn off the credit taps.

Now that Beijing has reckoned with the idea that now is not the time to try and contain the country’s massive debt load, even as the percentage of bad debt balloons, it increasingly appears that these measures might be too little, too late for investors who financed these LGFVs, as the Wall Street Journal revealed in a report about how a local government in China’s impoverished South had caused a stir by stiffing its creditors after racking up a debt pile – largely through these LGFVs – equivalent to roughly three times the government’s annual revenue.

While putting a number on the amount of shadow debt in the system is difficult due to the opacity of the Chinese financial system, one economist at a domestic think tank estimated that off-balance-sheet borrowings by local governments could be as much as 23.6 trillion yuan, as of the end of 2017, meaning that total is likely higher today, as governments have been forced to tap these vehicles during Beijing’s deleveraging campaign. The proliferation of private funds and other money-raising channels for local governments makes it difficult for economists and for Beijing to track the total amount of borrowings. Official figures pegged the sum of local and central government debt at 29.95 trillion yuan ($4.457 trillion) in 2017, roughly 36% of the economy.

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South Korea “exports contracted 11.1 percent in February from a year earlier, their biggest drop in nearly three years, with shipments to major buyer China slumping 17.4 percent.”

Growing China Downdraft Chills Asia Factory Activity (R.)

Weak demand in China and growing global fallout from the Sino-U.S. trade war took a heavier toll on factories across much of Asia in February, business surveys showed on Friday. Activity in China’s vast manufacturing sector contracted for the third straight month, pointing to more strains on its major trading partners and raising questions over whether Beijing needs to do more to stabilize the slowing economy. In many cases, business conditions were the worst Asian companies have faced since 2016, with demand weakening not only in China but globally. Japan’s factory gauge fell at the sharpest pace in 2-1/2 years as slumping orders prompted plants to cut production, while separate data from South Korea showed its exports plummeted.

“The weakening trend in Chinese import demand weighed heavily on exports across the rest of the region,” said Sian Fenner, lead Asia economist at Oxford Economics. [..] China watchers are looking to Premier Li Keqiang’s work report to the annual meeting of parliament next week for clues on further stimulus plans. Li will set out the government’s economic targets for the year on Tuesday. Sources have told Reuters Beijing will set a 2019 growth target of 6.0-6.5 percent, down from around 6.5 percent in 2018. China reported economic growth cooled to 6.6 percent last year, its weakest pace since 1990, but some analysts believe actual activity is much weaker.

[..] In Japan, the Markit/Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell into contraction territory as both domestic and foreign orders slumped. “We need to be mindful that uncertainty over the global economic outlook is heightening,” Bank of Japan board member Hitoshi Suzuki said on Thursday, after data showed the biggest drop in industrial output in a year in January. Readings from South Korea — the first economy in Asia to report trade data each month – were equally grim. Its exports contracted 11.1 percent in February from a year earlier, their biggest drop in nearly three years, with shipments to major buyer China slumping 17.4 percent.

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“Once deeply resistant to Trump, CPAC is now like a religious gathering full of Trump idolatry. “Make America Great Again” (Maga) hats and sweaters are much in evidence..”

CPAC On Socialism, Bernie Sanders And 2020: ‘Trump Will Win, 100%’ (G.)

“The favourite in the Democratic race is Bernie Sanders because the way he makes socialism sound,” said Brandon Morris, 32, wearing a Maga cap. “Most citizens don’t know how the system works; once I tell them, they see it will fall apart.” Morris, a nurse from Gainesville, Florida, who is African American, added: “I’m against socialism because I see it as a form of slavery. The rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer. Cory Booker and Kamala Harris talk about Medicare for All and that will kill doctors’ incentives to work hard. Look at Cuba.” Like Trump, Sanders ran in 2016 warning of a rigged system and the downsides of global trade and, like Trump, he thrived in midwestern states against Hillary Clinton. Less than a week after declaring his 2020 candidacy, Sanders had already raised $10m, well ahead of any of his rivals.

Wearing a Maga cap and stars and stripes jacket, Sam Lee, the communications director of conservative group Grand Opportunity USA, said: “I think Sanders has the ability to generate a base. He’s genuine. It’s the same thing as Trump: they’re very upfront about who they are. But Trump will win, 100%.” Lee rejected candidates such as Harris and Elizabeth Warren as “background noise”, adding: “Every election has people who aren’t going to make it and I don’t think they could.” Fran Wendelboe, the treasurer of the conservative organisation the 603 Alliance in New Hampshire, the first state to hold a primary, said: “Among the young voters, Bernie Sanders still seems popular. I think he still has great traction. Elizabeth Warren doesn’t seem to be getting much – she should get out of the race. But they’re all trampling themselves to get as far to the left as they can. Nobody’s going to beat Trump.”

Mike Wertz, a self-employed property appraiser, said: “It’s hard to run against Santa Claus: Bernie Sanders is Santa Claus because he says he would give everything away free. But Trump is still popular.” Wertz, 52, from Stevensville, Maryland, dismissed the prospects of Joe Biden, the former vice-president who is yet to declare whether he will mount a third bid for the White House. “Biden would get exposed. He stumbles around and says silly things. Trump would bring that out of him; he wouldn’t let Biden get away with it. If Biden said something stupid, Trump would tweet it in about 30 seconds.”

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Just to show you my views are not alone. Jimmy Dore and Aaron Maté.

Someone mailed me yesterday talking about the conservatism of my columns. Never saw that before. And I don’t agree. Raging against the empty narratives of the anti-Trump machine does not make me a Trump supporter. People should read more carefully. The world is not divided into two camps.

Claim Trump Had Prior Knowledge Of WikiLeaks Fails Hilariously (Dore)

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Cohen and the Democrats lost it all when he said at the start he never wanted a White House job.

Trump Says Cohen Lied ‘95% Instead Of 100%’ In Testimony To Congress (G.)

Donald Trump claimed on Thursday that Michael Cohen lied about almost everything during his explosive congressional testimony the day before – but told the truth by saying he had no evidence that Trump colluded with Russia. Speaking in Vietnam after meeting the North Korean leader, Kim Jong un, Trump said Cohen, his former legal fixer, lied “95% instead of 100%” of the time during a hearing of the House oversight committee on Wednesday. “I was impressed,” said Trump. Trump falsely claimed several times that Cohen had testified that there had been “no collusion”. In fact, Cohen said he did not know any “direct evidence” of collusion. “But I have my suspicions,” he told members of Congress.

Trump said of Cohen: “He lied a lot, but it was very interesting, because he didn’t lie about one thing. He said no collusion with the Russian hoax. And I said, ‘I wonder why he didn’t just lie about that too, like he lied about everything else.’” Cohen delivered a scathing account of his 10 years as Trump’s enforcer, calling the president a racist conman, implicating him in a series of felonies and estimating that Cohen had threatened 500 people on Trump’s behalf. He said Trump’s eldest son, Donald Jr, had been involved in a criminal conspiracy to pay hush money to a pornographic actor, Stormy Daniels, who alleged she had an affair with the elder Trump. Federal prosecutors in New York continue to investigate.

Cohen confirmed that Trump was under federal investigation for undisclosed crimes and warned that Trump may try to cling to power even if his re-election campaign fails next year. He also alleged that Trump knew in advance of plans by WikiLeaks to publish Democratic party emails, which US authorities say were stolen by Russian intelligence operatives, and that Donald Jr was to meet with Russians at Trump Tower. But, Cohen said, he knew of no direct evidence that Trump or his campaign colluded with Russia’s interference in the 2016 election campaign. US intelligence agencies concluded that the Russian operation was aimed at boosting Trump’s chances.

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Trudeau’s riding has lots of SNC-Lavalin jobs. But he may have gone too far.

The Case That Could Bring Down Canada’s Justin Trudeau (G.)

What is going on in Canada? Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, is facing the biggest political scandal of his administration. The affair centres around allegations that his former attorney general, Jody-Wilson Raybould, was improperly pressured by some of his closest advisers to prevent the prosecution of a large Canadian engineering firm over accusations of fraud and bribery. Thus far, the scandal has been politically costly; Gerald Butts, a longtime friend of Trudeau’s, and his closest adviser, resigned two weeks ago. Wilson-Raybould has resigned, too. A handful of polls are showing the scandal is politically unpopular for the governing Liberals – which is worrying for them, given there is a federal election in October.

What is the company accused of? SNC-Lavalin, based in Montreal, is accused of paying C$48m worth of bribes in Libya to Muammar Gaddafi’s family, in order to secure lucrative contracts. The bribery is alleged to have occurred between 2001 and 2011. If found guilty, the company would be barred from bidding on federal projects for a decade. SNC-Lavalin employs nearly 50,000 people worldwide, with 3,400 in Quebec. Company executives have been lobbying fora “deferred prosecution agreement”, which in effect allows them to pay a fine in lieu of a criminal prosecution, with no ban on bidding for contracts. But federal prosectors have decided to pursue a trial.

This is where the scandal is centred: the prime minister and his aides, along with the finance minister, have been accused of pressing Wilson-Raybould to intervene and asking prosecutors to accept a deferred prosecution agreement. Wilson-Raybould declined to override the judgment of her top legal team.

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Nobody is willing to say yes to intervention.

Anti-Maduro Allies Regroup After The Fight For Humanitarian Aid (CNBC)

Venezuela’s opposition has formally urged the international community to keep all options on the table, after deadly clashes broke out in border towns over the weekend. On Saturday, at least three people were killed and hundreds more were left injured, Reuters reported, as opposition activists tried to defy a government ban to bring food supplies, hygiene kits and nutritional supplements into the country. It comes at a time when the South American nation is in the midst of the Western Hemisphere’s worst humanitarian crisis in recent memory. President Donald Trump has consistently refused to rule out the prospect of military intervention in Venezuela and the country’s opposition leader, Juan Guaido, has called on the international community to “keep all options open.”

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted over the weekend that Washington would “take action against those who oppose the peaceful restoration of democracy in Venezuela.” To be sure, the prospect of U.S.-led military intervention is clearly being signaled as a form of “action.” “I think large-scale U.S. military intervention remains unlikely, though the chances are increasing — that’s worrying,” Tom Long, assistant professor in the department of politics and international studies at the University of Warwick, told CNBC via email. “More than the deadly clashes, what I worry could push towards military action is the lack of options remaining for the opposition and its international allies to increase pressure,” he added.

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We can only guess as to why Chelsea picks the NYT to divulge details about this. We don’t have to guess as to why the NYT picks it up; it wants to repeat this one again:

” In recent years, Mr. Assange and WikiLeaks have become notorious for their role in disseminating Democratic emails stolen by Russian hackers as part of the Russian government’s covert efforts to damage the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton, and help Donald J. Trump win.”

And Chelsea now helps them do it.

Disclosing Subpoena for Testimony, Chelsea Manning Vows to Fight (NYT)

Chelsea Manning, the former Army intelligence analyst convicted in 2013 of leaking archives of secret military and diplomatic documents to WikiLeaks, revealed in an interview on Thursday that she had been subpoenaed to testify before a grand jury — and vowed to fight it. The subpoena does not say what prosecutors intend to ask her about. But it was issued in the Eastern District of Virginia and comes after prosecutors inadvertently disclosed in November that Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, has been charged under seal in that district. Ms. Manning, who provided a copy of the subpoena to The New York Times, said that her legal team would file a motion on Friday morning to quash it, arguing that it would violate her constitutional rights to force her to appear.

She declined to say whether she would cooperate if that failed. “Given what is going on, I am opposing this,” she said. “I want to be very forthright I have been subpoenaed. I don’t know the parameters of the subpoena apart from that I am expected to appear. I don’t know what I’m going to be asked.” [..] Ms. Manning said that her lawyers have been talking about the subpoena with an assistant United States attorney in the Eastern District, Gordon D. Kromberg. After an inadvertent court filing revealed that Mr. Assange has been charged under seal, it was Mr. Kromberg who successfully argued before a judge that any such charges remain a secret and should not be unsealed. Moreover, she said, Mr. Kromberg told her lawyers in vague terms that prosecutors wanted to talk to her about her past statements.

During her court-martial, Ms. Manning delivered a lengthy statement about how she came to copy archives of secret documents and send them to WikiLeaks, including her online interactions with someone who was likely Mr. Assange. “It’s disappointing but not surprising that the government is continuing to pursue criminal charges against Julian Assange, apparently for his role in uncovering and providing the public truthful information about matters of great public interest,” said Barry Pollack, a lawyer for Mr. Assange. [..] In recent years, Mr. Assange and WikiLeaks have become notorious for their role in disseminating Democratic emails stolen by Russian hackers as part of the Russian government’s covert efforts to damage the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton, and help Donald J. Trump win.

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“Since 2003, China has poured more cement every two years than the US managed in the entire 20th century.”

The Grey Wall Of China: Inside The World’s Concrete Superpower (G.)

In the suburbs south of Beijing, what could one day be the world’s busiest airport is rapidly taking shape. Nicknamed “the starfish” due to the striking design by Zaha Hadid Architects, the Beijing Daxing international airport is set to open in October, and could eventually handle more than 100 million passengers a year. While the 52,000-tonne steel exoskeleton covering the airport’s six concourses immediately catches the eye, what lies beneath is familiar to many Chinese mega-projects: concrete – 1.6m cubic metres of it. Located 67km south of the capital, the airport sprawls across 780,000 sq metres – about a third of the size of Edinburgh. It aims to process 72 million passengers a year, and will have four runways by 2025, but there is a longer-term vision for additional runways and talk of 200 million passengers. Beijing’s existing international airport in the north-east, which will stay open, already handles around 96 million passengers a year.


Photograph: Sipa Asia/Rex/Shutterstock

The new airport is just the latest chapter in the story of how China became the concrete superpower of the 21st century. Since 2003, China has poured more cement every two years than the US managed in the entire 20th century. Even after a dip in recent years, China uses almost half the world’s concrete. The construction sector – roads, bridges, railways, urban development and other concrete-and-steel projects – accounted for one-third of the expansion of the Chinese economy in 2017. China is already home to the largest concrete structure in the world – the Three Gorges Dam across the Yangtze River. Sometimes touted as China’s “new Great Wall”, the dam includes 27.2m cubic metres of concrete and its hydroelectric power station is the world’s largest power station in terms of capacity.

Like all of China’s concrete achievements, the Three Gorges Dam has been mired in controversy. Around 1.4 million people were displaced by the project, and there were complaints that the rehousing settlements were inadequate or that compensation money disappeared into local government coffers. More than 100 workers died in the construction process, and archaeological and cultural sites were flooded. None of this prevented Li Yongan, general manager of the Three Gorges Corporation, from declaring in 2006 that the dam was “the grandest project the Chinese people have undertaken in thousands of years”.

Li only had to wait seven more years to be outdone by yet another Chinese feat of concrete. In 2013, the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project opened, connecting the Grand Canal in China’s east with the capital in the north. The project is a multi-decade plan to divert the water from China’s lush south to its arid north, where water scarcity is an acute problem. The waterway has already cost around $80bn (£61bn), making it the most expensive infrastructure project in the world. In the first phase alone, it has used more than double the amount of concrete in the Three Gorges Dam: 65m cubic metres. The project ultimately aims to transport fresh water a distance of more than 4,300km.

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May 042017
 
 May 4, 2017  Posted by at 9:32 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , ,  7 Responses »


Fred Stein Americans All 1943

 

“We Have Enough Votes”: House To Vote Thursday To Repeal Obamacare (ZH)
Democrats, Not Trump, Are Driving Policy (BBG)
Corporate Insiders Are Unloading Their Stocks Like There’s No Tomorrow (Lang)
The Coming Collapse In US Auto Sales (F.)
Fed to Markets: June Rate Hike Coming Your Way (CNBC)
Rickards Says Fed Raising Into Weakness, Recession Due By Summer (BBG)
57% Of Australians Couldn’t Handle $100 A Month Rise In Mortgage Payments (G.)
Kyle Bass Warns “All Hell Is About To Break Loose” In China (ZH)
PIMCO Warns “Brace For Lower Growth” From A Less ‘Impulsive’ China (ZH)
Do Tax Cuts Pay For Themselves? (MW)
The Economics of the Future (Michael Hudson)
UK PM May Accuses EU of Brexit Threats and Election Interference (CNBC)
Le Pen Tirade Meets Logic of Macron in Brutal French TV Duel
Universal Basic Income is Not “Free Money” (Santens)
The Brothers Fighting For Indebted Greek Homeowners (AP)

 

 

The whole thing oozes cynicism.

“We Have Enough Votes”: House To Vote Thursday To Repeal Obamacare (ZH)

The Republicans are giving Obamacare repeal another try, and this time they may succeed. Just a few hours after we reported that “Obamacare repeal suddenly looks possible” when two key Republicans – Fred Upton and Billy Long – flipped and decided to support the GOP healthcare bill, leading to immediate speculation the bill has enough support, the WSJ reported that House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy told reporters Wednesday evening the House will vote on Thursday on the Republican bill to replace most of Obamacare: “we will be voting on the health-care bill tomorrow because we have enough votes.” When asked by a reporter about whether the bill would have to be pulled from the floor again for lack of support, McCarthy replied: “Would you have confidence? We’re going to pass it. We’re going to pass it. Let’s be optimistic about life.”

McCarthy also cited an insurer pulling out of the ObamaCare exchanges in Iowa Wednesday as a reason the law needs to be quickly repealed. “That’s why we have to make sure this passes. To save these people from ObamaCare, which continues to collapse.” And so just like at the end of March, when the GOP was confident it had whipped enough names, only to pull the vote in the last moment, the announcement once again sets up a high-stakes vote that is expected to come down to the wire. The House GOP bill, if passed, would roll back much of the 2010 health-care law, replacing its subsidies with a system of tax credits largely tied to age. Until Wednesday, Republican leaders had struggled to secure the 216 votes they need to pass the bill, which is expected to receive no Democratic support.

They pulled the bill from the floor in late March, when conservatives and centrists defected and it became clear the legislation didn’t have the support to pass. Last week, GOP leaders also opted not to vote on the bill ahead of Trump’s first 100 days in office. [..] in pulling yet another page from the Democrats’ playbook, the House will pass the vote first before finding out what’s in it: the vote will take place without waiting for a new Congressional Budget Office analysis of Upton’s changes or the amendment from Rep. Tom MacArthur that won over the House Freedom Caucus. That analysis will eventually provide the details of the bill’s effects on coverage and its cost. For now however, Republicans are just scrambling to take advantage of this rare moment of agreement and get something finally done.

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What’s so cynical: trying to break Democrats’ power by pushing through a half-baked bill.

Democrats, Not Trump, Are Driving Policy (BBG)

Enough about Donald Trump’s first 100 days. On the 101st day, Congress came to a rare bipartisan agreement funding the federal government through September. This showed who really holds power in the Trump era: Democrats. After last November’s election, when Republicans had consolidated power and held both chambers of Congress as well as the White House, the question was who would be driving policy. Would it be the Trump administration, perhaps led by populist mastermind Steve Bannon? Would it be House Speaker Paul Ryan, a man with a reputation as a policy wonk with a vision for government? Would it be the ideological House Freedom Caucus, demanding that the new Republican-led government live up to the promises the party made to its base during the Obama years? All have tried to lead at some point this year, but the recently agreed-upon budget deal shows that instead, it’s Democrats who appear to be in charge.

Democrats have the leverage in Washington now because Republicans haven’t figured out how to govern on their own. The first Republican attempt at legislation was Paul Ryan’s American Health Care Act. That failed in part because it didn’t repeal Obamacare as the House Freedom Caucus insisted. The Trump administration tried to influence the legislative agenda by putting forth its budget blueprint in mid-March, which included draconian cuts to various departments. Yet the only parts of that budget that made it into the final agreement were modest spending increases for defense spending and border security, without any of the corresponding cuts. This happened because Republicans couldn’t come to an agreement on the budget on their own, meaning Democratic votes were needed for passage, and Democrats wouldn’t sign on to anything with big spending cuts.

[..]The emerging view may be that Trump just wants to sign legislation that he can take credit for, regardless of the substance of the bills. After all, he’s on the verge of signing a government funding bill that’s more in line with Democratic priorities than his own. Since he hasn’t been willing to stand up for any of his or his party’s policy priorities so far, should Democrats retake the House in 2018, there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t sign legislation passed by Democrats in the House if it makes it to his desk. On policy, the author of “The Art of the Deal” doesn’t seem to have any policy deal-breakers. A president without any fixed policy vision or breaking points is no authoritarian. He makes the legislature more powerful than it’s been in decades. If Republicans can’t come to internal agreement on major legislation, and Democrats are the ones with leverage, then complete inaction might become a best-case scenario for the GOP.

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“The people who would stand to lose the most if the markets crashed [..] are all jumping ship and selling their stocks.”

Corporate Insiders Are Unloading Their Stocks Like There’s No Tomorrow (Lang)

There aren’t any surefire ways to tell if the stock market, and perhaps the rest of the economy, is about to take a nosedive. That’s because millions of people with millions of ideas are involved, so it’s an inherently unpredictable system. However, there are certain players in our economy that have a lot more influence and insider knowledge than the rest of us. So when they make a move in unison, you know there’s a good chance that something is about to go down. And that’s exactly what’s going on with the stock market right now. The people who would stand to lose the most if the markets crashed; the corporate executives and insiders, are all jumping ship and selling their stocks.

“As the investing public has continued to devour stocks, sending all three major indexes to record highs in the last few months, corporate insiders have been offloading shares to an extent not seen in seven years.”Selling totaled $10 billion in March, according to data compiled by Trim Tabs. It’s a troubling trend facing an equity market that’s already grappling with its loftiest valuations since the 2000 tech bubble. If the people with the deepest knowledge of a company are cashing out, why should investors keep buying at current prices? The groundswell of insider selling has the attention of Brad Lamensdorf, portfolio manager at Ranger Alternative Management, and he doesn’t like what he sees. “This is definitely a negative sign,” Lamensdorf wrote in his April newsletter. “They do not see value in their own companies!”

And this isn’t a recent trend. While ordinary investors were optimistically diving into the stock market after Trump was elected, these people were dumping their stocks as far back as February. “Chief executives and other corporate insiders are selling stock hand over fist now that the quarterly earnings season is over, a report from Vickers Weekly Insider shows. Transactions by insiders are restricted around a company’s report. “Insider selling has jumped again, and this time to levels rarely seen,” analyst David Coleman wrote in Monday’s note.”

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A useful term: “Pent Down Demand”

The Coming Collapse In US Auto Sales (F.)

Automobiles are not moving off the parking lot. That’s according to an industry report that showed a sharp decline in auto sales across all auto makers—see table. Meanwhile industry inventories have been climbing up from an average of 55 days back in April of 2015 to 70 days last month. Coming after months of sluggish sales and generous incentives, the big drop in April sales could be a sign of an impending collapse which could parallel that of 2008-9. There’s a compelling reason for that: pent down demand, which for years has been “stealing” sales from the future. Now the future has arrived and pent down demand is bad for auto makers, their investors and the economy as a whole.

To get an idea how “pent down demand” (my own term) works, a good place to begin with is the more familiar concept of pent up demand, the lack of current demand for discretionary items like automobiles, home appliances, etc., which depresses sales of these items in the short run. Pent up demand usually appears before a period of consumer euphoria, when consumers choose to push spending on discretionary items to a future date, due to lower price expectations, depressed consumer confidence, or a credit crunch. And it disappears together with these conditions when that future day comes, and consumers rush to buy the items they put off in the past.

In contrast, pent down demand appears after a period of consumer euphoria when consumers choose to move spending on discretionary items from a future date into the present day, due to low cost of financing — which blurs the distinction between present and future. Why wait to buy a new car or a new home appliance next year when you can have it this year, paying a small penalty for this privilege? Simply put, ultra-low interest rates help “steal” sales from the future, creating market saturation, and eventually depress spending on “high ticket” items when the future becomes present. That’s what happened in the six years that preceded the 2008-9 collapse in US auto sales. Consumers rushed to take advantage of “zero percent” financing to purchase cars they would normally buy years later.

That’s how automobile sales grew from an average of 15 million in the 1980s and the 1990s to 17 million in the first six years of 2000s, before they tumbled during the Great Recession. Nonetheless, the Federal Reserve and other central bankers around the world didn’t take notice of the impact of pent down demand on future growth. They upped their ultra-low interest rate policies, refueling pent down demand again (automobile sales are above the pre-Great Recession levels). Compounding the problem, pent down demand is exacerbated by debt – a lot of debt – amassed on top of the old debt, which fueled the bubble that preceded the Great Recession. This was documented by a McKinsey report—US auto loans have crossed $1 trillion lately.

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Locked in to their own fantasies.

Fed to Markets: June Rate Hike Coming Your Way (CNBC)

As expected, the Fed gave a nod to a temporary weakness in the economy and signaled it is still moving ahead with policy tightening. “They’re looking past the first-quarter weakness. They are laying the groundwork for a June rate hike, in my opinion,” said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at Lindsey Group. Fed funds futures indicated just about a 75% chance of a June interest-rate hike, up about 5 percentage points after the announcement, according to Michael Schumacher, head of rates strategy at Wells Fargo Securities. “It seems pretty optimistic. … There’s no big difference between this statement and the last one. The comment that they are ignoring weak first-quarter growth is the big thing. There’s nothing really changed in their path,” Schumacher said.

First-quarter growth grew at a weak 0.7%, but economists expect a bounce back and some see growth over 3%. The Fed acknowledged the softness in its statement. “The Committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory and continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will stabilize around 2% over the medium term,” they wrote. [..] The statement did not mention changes to the Fed’s balance sheet, which officials were expected to have discussed at length during the two-day meeting. That discussion should be revealed in the minutes of the meeting, expected to be released May 24.

Instead, the Fed noted in its statement that it was maintaining its strategy of balance sheet reinvestment, meaning it replaces securities as they roll down. The Fed has forecast two more rate hikes this year, and many strategists expect it to tackle its balance sheet after those moves. The Fed has said it would like to begin shrinking its balance sheet as early as this year. Many market pros expect some action on the balance sheet around the December meeting or in early 2018, after it raises interest rates in June and September.

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Rickards’ been saying for a while that the Fed wouldn’t be able to help itself.

Rickards Says Fed Raising Into Weakness, Recession Due By Summer (BBG)

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A quarter are in mortgage stress already.

57% Of Australians Couldn’t Handle $100 A Month Rise In Mortgage Payments (G.)

The burden of housing costs is biting even in Australia’s wealthiest suburbs as an unprecedented one in four households nationally face mortgage stress, according to the latest in a 15-year series of analyses. Households in Toorak and Bondi, prestigious pockets of affluence in Australia’s biggest cities, have made the list of those struggling to meet repayments amid rising costs and stagnating wages, research firm Digital Finance Analytics has found. The firm’s principal, Martin North, said it was surprising new evidence showed that financial distress from property price surges reached beyond “the battlers and the mortgage belt” and was a “much broader and much more significant problem”. The survey, which analyses real cash flows against mortgage repayments, finds more than 767,000 households or 23.4% are now in mortgage stress, which means they have little or no spare cash after covering costs.

This includes 32,000 that are in severe stress, meaning they cannot cover repayments from current income. The firm predicts that almost 52,000 households will probably default on mortgages over the next year. Risk hotspots include Meadow Springs and Canning Vale in Western Australia, Derrimut and Cranbourne in Victoria, and Mackay and Pacific Pines in Queensland. Overall, New South Wales and Victoria, whose capital cities have seen a recent surge in home prices, accounted for more than half the probable defaults (270,000) and households in mortgage distress (420,000). North said the numbers were “an early indicator of risk in the system”. The underlying drivers were “flat or falling wage growth”, much faster rising living costs and the likelihood mortgage interest payments would only go up.

Widespread mortgage burdens were limiting spending elsewhere and “sucking the life out of the economy”, and the problem should be addressed to head off a housing crash and its repercussions, North said. North is not alone in highlighting household vulnerability. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s financial stability review last month observed one-third of Australian borrowers had little or no mortgage “buffer”, which North said was “the first time they’ve ever admitted it”. Finder.com last week found 57% of mortgagees could not handle a rise of $100 or more in monthly repayments. “The surprising thing is that people in Bondi in NSW, for example, or even young affluents who have bought down in Toorak in Victoria are actually on the list [of mortgage stressed],” North said.

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“As soon as liabilities have problems – meaning the depositors decide to not roll their holdings – all hell breaks loose..”

Kyle Bass Warns “All Hell Is About To Break Loose” In China (ZH)

China's credit system expanded "too recklessly and too quickly," and "it's beginning to unravel," warns Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass. Crucially, Bass notes that ballooning assets in Chinese wealth management products are another sign of a looming credit crisis in the nation.

"Some of the longer-term assets aren't doing very well," Bass said on Bloomberg TV from the annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California. "As soon as liabilities have problems – meaning the depositors decide to not roll their holdings – all hell breaks loose."

The wealth management products, or WMPs, have swelled to $4 trillion in assets in the last few years, he said., on a $34 trillion banking system…

"think about this – in the US, our asset-liability mismatch at the peak of our subprime greatness was around 2%! … China's mismatch is more than 10% of the system."

Must Watch simplification of the next stage of the credit cycle in China…

Timing the drop is hard, Bass notes, reminding Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker that "in the US, the first bumps in the road hit in early 2007, and we didn't start to really accelerate until mid 2008… even a large unraveling takes a while."Bass has been sounding the alarm for some time that debt-burdened Chinese banks need to be restructured…

"What you see when the liquidity dries up is people start going down… and this is the beginning of the Chinese credit crisis."

And judging by the collapse in both Chinese stocks and bonds, the deleveraging is accelerating…

 

And liquidity is getting desperate again…

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China=Debt.

PIMCO Warns “Brace For Lower Growth” From A Less ‘Impulsive’ China (ZH)

In the company’s blog, PIMCO’s Gene Fried echoes everything we have said and write that following the defeat of the new U.S. healthcare bill, investors have begun to rethink the likely time frame and extent of the Trump administration’s other top priorities, such as fiscal stimulus. Equity markets stalled and bonds rallied as investors toned down their expectations for global reflation recently. None of this is horribly surprising, but by focusing so intensely on U.S. political developments, investors risk missing a silent shift in what has arguably been the strongest driver of global reflation in the last five years: Chinese credit. This driver is now moving sharply in reverse. China’s “credit impulse,” the change in the growth rate of aggregate credit to GDP, bears close watching: It has tended to lead the Chinese manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) by a year (see Figure 1) and the U.S. Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index by 14 months.

The relevance of the Chinese credit impulse to global reflation cannot be overstated (see Figure 2). China’s massive credit stimulus starting in 2014 initially put a floor under commodity prices and emerging market (EM) growth. Then, the unexpected acceleration in Chinese real estate investment drove both commodity prices and volume demand higher. EM growth subsequently bounced, and with it, global trade volumes. The key driver of realized global reflation, then, has been China – not the promise of fiscal stimulus and deregulation that has helped boost confidence and other soft data in the U.S.

When will China’s credit drop affect growth? The sharp downturn in the Chinese credit impulse starting in 2016 portends a material drag on Chinese growth in the year ahead. Looking back on the past three years, the Chinese credit impulse turned positive sometime between late 2014 and mid-2015. Given China’s exchange rate volatility in August 2015, it took longer than normal for credit to gain traction. The Chinese credit impulse peaked in March 2016 and slowed sharply after the second quarter. It is only now that the impact of that reduced stimulus should be felt. PIMCO has already factored credit-related drag into its Chinese growth outlook, but the decline in the credit impulse has been sharper and more extreme than many expected.

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Unanswerable question.

Do Tax Cuts Pay For Themselves? (MW)

Forty-three years after economist Arthur Laffer sketched a pictorial representation of individuals’ response to changes in income tax rates, economists still can’t agree if tax cuts pay for themselves: entirely, in part, or not at all. In a capitalist system, a tax rate of 0% or a tax rate of 100% will yield no revenue for the government: in the first instance, because there is no tax levied on labor income; in the second, because there is no labor income to tax because most of us would refuse to work without compensation. The Laffer Curve is an attempt to describe the optimal tax rate, or the rate that maximizes revenue. As with most economic theories nowadays, the idea that tax cuts pay for themselves has been politicized. Many conservatives take an oath of fealty to supply-side economics, an offshoot of the Laffer Curve: the idea that lower tax rates act as an incentive to work and produce, lifting economic growth and tax revenue.

Supply-siders don’t differentiate between the potential effect of large reductions in the top marginal tax rate — from 91% (1950s) to 70% (1960s) to 28% (1980s) — and that of President Donald Trump’s proposed modest cut from 39.6% to 35% for top earners. Liberals, on the other hand, love to quote George H.W. Bush’s assessment of supply-side theory — at least until he became Ronald Reagan’s running mate — as “voodoo economics.” “Tax cuts for the rich” is another favorite derogatory moniker, which is an accurate description but one that is taboo for believers. The basic premise underlying supply-side economics is sound: Tax something less, and you will get more of it. Tax something more, and you will get less of it. Think hefty cigarette taxes, designed to deter cancer-causing tobacco use. It’s the application that goes astray.

The income tax is a tax on labor. According to supply-siders, if you raise marginal tax rates, individuals will work less. And if you cut rates, they will work more. Who except the rich is in a position to forgo take-home pay, even if it is taxed at a higher rate? Households with both parents working, struggling to make ends meet, can’t sacrifice one salary. That’s the dirty little secret of supply-side economics that its advocates never mention. It’s the rich who are able respond to changes in marginal tax rates. And yes, they are the ones likely to start a new business and create jobs. Theory aside, why don’t we know what the effect of tax cuts is on economic output and federal revenue? Economists of both political persuasions are eager to tout their findings, both in support of and as a challenge to supply-side economics.

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Hopefully I should be getting Steve’s book today. Everyone should read it.

The Economics of the Future (Michael Hudson)

At first glance Steve Keen’s new book Can We Avoid Another Financial Crisis? seems too small-sized at 147 pages. But like a well-made atom-bomb, it is compactly designed for maximum reverberation to blow up its intended target. Explaining why today’s debt residue has turned the United States, Britain and southern Europe into zombie economies, Steve Keen shows how ignoring debt is the blind spot of neoliberal economics – basically the old neoclassical just-pretend view of the world. Its glib mathiness is a gloss for its unscientific “don’t worry about debt” message. Blame for today’s U.S., British and southern European inability to achieve economic recovery thus rests on the economic mainstream and its refusal to recognize that debt matters.

Mainstream models are unable to forecast or explain a depression. That is because depressions are essentially financial in character. The business cycle itself is a financial cycle – that is, a cycle of the buildup and collapse of debt. Keen’s “Minsky” model traces this to what he has called “endogenous money creation,” that is, bank credit mainly to buyers of real estate, companies and other assets. He recently suggested a more catchy moniker: “Bank Originated Money and Debt” (BOMD). That seems easier to remember. The concept is more accessible than the dry academic terminology usually coined. It is simple enough to show that the mathematics of compound interest lead the volume of debt to exceed the rate of GDP growth, thereby diverting more and more income to the financial sector as debt service.

Keen traces this view back to Irving Fisher’s famous 1933 article on debt deflation – the residue from unpaid debt. Such payments to creditors leave less available to spend on goods and services. In explaining the mathematical dynamics underlying his “Minsky” model, Keen links financial dynamics to employment. If private debt grows faster than GDP, the debt/GDP ratio will rise. This stifles markets, and hence employment. Wages fall as a share of GDP. This is precisely what is happening. But mainstream models ignore the overgrowth of debt, as if the economy operates on a barter basis. Keen calls this “the barter illusion,” and reviews his wonderful exchange with Paul Krugman (who plays the role of an intellectual Bambi to Keen’s Godzilla), who insists that banks do not create credit but merely recycle savings – as if they are savings banks, not commercial banks. It is the old logic that debt doesn’t matter because “we” owe the debt to “ourselves.”

[..] By being so compact, this book is able to concentrate attention on the easy-to-understand mathematical principles that underlie the “junk economics” mainstream. Keen explains why, mathematically, the Great Moderation leading up to the 2008 crash was not an anomaly, but is inherent in a basic principle: Economies can prolong the debt-financed boom and delay a crash simply by providing more and more credit, Australia-style. The effect is to make the ensuing crash worse, more long-lasting and more difficult to extricate. For this, he blames mainly Margaret Thatcher and Alan Greenspan as, in effect, bank lobbyists. But behind them is the whole edifice of neoliberal economic brainwashing.

Keen attacks this “neoclassical” methodology by pointing at the logical fallacy of trying to explain society by looking only at “the individual.” That approach and its related “series of plausible but false propositions” blinds economics graduates from seeing the obvious. Their discipline is the product of ideological desire not to blame banks or creditors, wrapped in a libertarian antagonism toward government’s role as economic regulator, money creator, and financer of basic infrastructure.

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The EU really cares.

UK PM May Accuses EU of Brexit Threats and Election Interference (CNBC)

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has accused the EU of not wanting Brexit negotiations to be a success, as tensions between both sides escalate ahead of official talks. “The events of the last few days have shown that – whatever our wishes, and however reasonable the positions of Europe’s other leaders – there are some in Brussels who do not want these talks to succeed,” May said Wednesday afternoon outside Downing Street. Her comments follow media reports that the EU’s Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker left London “10 times more skeptical” than he was before after a dinner with Prime Minister May last week. Their meeting has been described in the press as a disaster with both leaders clashing over key negotiating issues.

Earlier on Wednesday, Juncker described May as a “tough woman”. May has said that she will be a “bloody difficult woman” during Brexit talks. Speaking outside Downing Street, the head of the Conservative party went further and accused the European Union of wanting to interfere in the upcoming general election. “Britain’s negotiating position in Europe has been misrepresented in the continental press. The European Commission’s negotiating stance has hardened.Threats against Britain have been issued by European politicians and officials. All of these acts have been deliberately timed to affect the result of the general election that will take place on 8 June,” the prime minister said.

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I watched parts of the debate, nothing brutal about it, just politics. Le Pen’s logic seems pretty solid: “France will be run by a woman whatever happens,” Le Pen said. “Either by me or by Mrs. Merkel.”

Le Pen Tirade Meets Logic of Macron in Brutal French TV Duel

Marine Le Pen unleashed a barrage of attacks on her presidential rival Emmanuel Macron as she tried to close a gap of some 20 percentage points in the only head-to-head debate of the French election campaign. Le Pen, 48, said her centrist opponent was the candidate of the capitalist elite, and a friend to terrorists, who planned to shut down factories, schools and hospitals. Macron said Le Pen’s broadsides against state bodies meant she was unfit to lead the country as she struggled to defend her plans to leave the euro. “You have threatened public employees,” Macron, 39, said as his opponent chuckled on the other side of the table during the almost three-hour debate Wednesday night. “Your words show that you are not worthy to be the defender of our institutions.”

A snap survey of 1,314 likely voters by polling firm Elabe showed that 63 percent of respondents rated Macron as the winner and 34 percent picked Le Pen. With just three days to go before French voters settle the most turbulent election in the country’s modern history, Le Pen argued for new border restrictions to protect the French people from foreign competition and terrorism, and an exit from euro, reversing 60 years of European integration. The clash was brutal from the get-go, and the general consensus from commentators was that it wasn’t a particularly dignified debate. “It was like a schoolyard brawl,” said Emmanuel Riviere, managing director of pollster Kantar Public France. “The candidates went straight for the jugular. Le Pen started it. But Macron also played his part.”

Both candidates justified the nasty tone on Thursday. “It was severe, but that’s because for the first time ever the French have a real choice,” Le Pen said on RMC Radio. “Before, the candidates agreed on everything. I want to wake up the French people.” [..] She told him he’d traveled to Berlin to get the blessing of German Chancellor Angela Merkel for his policy plans, playing on French concerns that their country plays second fiddle within the European Union. “France will be run by a woman whatever happens,” Le Pen said. “Either by me or by Mrs. Merkel.”

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“..your just and due compensation as part of this interdependent system we call society. We are all stakeholders in it.”

Universal Basic Income is Not “Free Money” (Santens)

Let’s say the cost to produce a widget is $1. What’s the cost to produce 1 million widgets? This may sound like an extremely simple word problem that even some preschoolers could solve. However, if you think the answer is $1 million, you would be entirely wrong. The cost to produce 1 million widgets is far below $1 million thanks to the savings inherent in mass production. It’s a lot cheaper per something to make a lot of something, than it is to create one of it, or even a few. A couple secondary understandings extend themselves as a result of this primary understanding. First, it’s wrong to assume that providing people with more money will necessitate rising prices. Increased demand can lead to greatly increased production, which then leads to lower prices. Just how much production can be ramped up in response to increased demand is a key factor in price determination.

Where supply cannot be increased, and therefore more money is chasing the same amount of goods, price increases can be expected. Where supply can be greatly or even infinitely increased, lower prices can be expected, especially where true competition exists. Second, and I find this point extremely compelling and the real point of this post, is a recognition of our interdependence, and the collective debt we owe each other. Take whatever device you’re reading these words on as a prime example. Whatever its cost to you, it only cost that because millions of others like you expressed their demand for the same device. Without everyone else, that device would have cost you ten times, a hundred times, or even a thousand times more than it would have to create just one, just for you. In other words, we all subsidize each other.

[..] In Alaska, Alaskans are paid on average about $1000 per year for being an Alaskan. Why? Because the oil companies didn’t make the oil in Alaska. They’re merely bringing it up out of the ground and processing it. The oil is considered owned by all Alaskans, and so they should as owners see some of the revenue generated by its sale. Now apply this logic to the rest of what was not created by humankind. Apply it to what is not created by any one human individually, but everyone together, like for example land value. Take a million dollar mansion and swap it with an empty lot in the middle of the desert. The mansion becomes worth only the sum total of what its parts can sell for. The empty lot shoots up in value. Why? Because the unimproved value of land is socially created. That value exists because YOU exist.

Do you see now that basic income is not “free money” or “money for nothing?” You are owed it. It is your just and due compensation as part of this interdependent system we call society. We are all stakeholders in it. We are all owed a dividend as investors. No investor in Apple would ever be okay with being told that in return for their investment in Apple, they merely get the privilege of purchasing Apple products. Their reward is a return on their investment in the form of cash dividends. That’s fair and just. What is true for corporate stockholders should also be true for you. Don’t accept anything less than a cash dividend for your investments in this grand organization called human civilization. Claim what you are owed and demand unconditional basic income.

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Key: “There is an effort by a coalition of interests: banks, financial funds, pro-bailout governments, and the international creditors. They want to grab people’s property by using the public debt as a lever..”

The Brothers Fighting For Indebted Greek Homeowners (AP)

Leonidas Papadopoulos is a doctor, his brother Ilias an economist, and once a week they take a break from ordinary life to fight the government. They go to court every Wednesday, the day homeowners in default on mortgages lose their properties at auctions – the final step of foreclosure in a country where the government and its citizens are overwhelmed by debt. Auctions are supervised by a notary public, who faces a weekly hour of crowd harassment. At a lower court in Athens one Wednesday, the Papadopoulos brothers and about 30 protesters gather menacingly around the notary’s desk, shouting insults and chanting “Vultures out!” When the atmosphere gets heated, protesters clamber onto the empty judges’ benches. In the court halls outside the chamber, demonstrators unfurl large banners and set up loudspeakers to blast music normally associated with protest movements from the 1970s.

Police look on without intervening, and another auction is cancelled. The crowd celebrates with chants of “No Homes in Bankers’ Hands!” – and goes home. “We create a list of all the auctions that are due to take place and decide which cases require our intervention. When the notary enters the chamber, we eject them with our presence, and by shouting,” the 35-year-old Leonidas Papadopoulos says. Each postponement typically delays an auction by about two months. The bearded brothers have created a nationwide protest network of several hundred volunteers to disrupt the auctions across Greece and to help illegally reconnect homes of unemployed people who have had their electricity cut off. In its fourth year, the campaign is intensifying as the country faces pressure from its international bailout creditors to deal with a mountain of bad bank loans.

Greece owes a staggering 325 billion euros ($354 billion), most of it to bailout lenders, while annual economic output – hammered by austerity, political upheaval and years of recession – has withered to below 180 billion euros ($196 billion). The country’s key assets are locked up for 99 years under the control of a fund created by the creditors. The picture for the country’s 10 million citizens is equally grim: Some 4 million are in arrears on tax payments, while 2 million households and businesses are behind on their electricity bills. Nearly half of loans given by banks for businesses and property purchases are now officially listed as soured. Ilias Papadopoulos, 33, sees the problem differently, arguing that people’s property are being seized at fire-sale prices after tax collection has been exhausted, in a desperate effort to maintain bailout debt commitments.

“There is an effort by a coalition of interests: banks, financial funds, pro-bailout governments, and the international creditors. They want to grab people’s property by using the public debt as a lever,” he said. “That includes homes, small businesses, farm land, and industry. It’s wealth that was acquired with such great effort by the Greek people. It cannot be surrendered without a fight.” Ilias says he’s never been arrested or detained by police due to his activism, and predicts the fight against foreclosures will intensify after Greece and it’s bailout creditors reached a new austerity deal this week. “This will only make things worse for poor people. So we’ll have to step things up.”

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Aug 092016
 
 August 9, 2016  Posted by at 8:51 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  1 Response »


Harris&Ewing Woodward & Lothrop dept. store trucks, Washington DC 1912

The Fed Is Losing Control of Global Monetary Conditions (BBG)
Are Negative Rates Backfiring? (WSJ)
Fannie And Freddie Could Need $126 Billion To Get Through A Crisis (R.)
UK Government Has Gambled Hundreds Of Millions On House Price Rises (TiM)
One In Three British Families Are A Month’s Pay From Losing Homes (G.)
Vulnerable UK Banks Still Pay Billions In Dividends To Shareholders (Ind.)
A Crisis Of Intervention (Price)
Spanish 10-Year Bond Yield Falls Below 1% for First Time (BBG)
China Leaders Head to the Beach, With Calmer Seas Ahead (BBG)
Trump Tax Cuts Would Be Costly (CNBC)
Republican Security Experts Rail Against Trump In Open Letter (BBC)
US Taxes Well Spent: Pentagon Can’t Account for $6.5 Trillion (Sputnik)
Facebook Removes Potential Evidence Of Police Brutality Too Readily (I’Cept)
More Than 60% Of Maldives’ Coral Reefs Hit By Bleaching (G.)

 

 

Libor. And by the way: The Fed never had control, just the illusion.

The Fed Is Losing Control of Global Monetary Conditions (BBG)

Libor is coming unhinged from other borrowing costs and that has real implications for the cost of money in the real world. On this basis, the U.S. has already had an interest-rate increase, according to Bloomberg View’s Mark Gilbert. While there are plenty of market participants who favor the Austrian school of economics and would welcome the removal of central banks from the rate-setting mechanism, the change in money-market conditions is something the Fed should take into account as it ponders its next move.

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They do what they’re supposed to prevent: encourage saving. Get the central banks out of the economy!

Are Negative Rates Backfiring? (WSJ)

Recent economic data show consumers are saving more in Germany and Japan, and in Denmark, Switzerland and Sweden, three non-eurozone countries with negative rates, savings are at their highest since 1995, the year the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development started collecting data on those countries. Companies in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Japan also are holding on to more cash. Economists point to a variety of other possible factors confounding central-bank policy: Low inflation has left consumers with more money to sock away; aging populations are naturally more inclined to save; central banks themselves may have failed to properly explain their actions.

But there is a growing suspicion that part of problem may be negative rates themselves. Some economists and bankers contend that negative rates communicate fear over the growth outlook and the central bank’s ability to manage it. “People only borrow and spend more when they are confident about the future,” says Andrew Sheets at Morgan Stanley. “But by going negative, into uncharted territory, the policy actually undermines confidence.” Going negative was a big bet by central banks faced with a sluggish recovery from the financial crisis. Whether negative rates succeed or flop has huge implications for the global economy. Japan and Europe are already doing large volumes of bond buying to spur their economies, and their central bankers have little left in their tool kits.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s next move is likely to raise rates, but Chairwoman Janet Yellen has said negative rates could find a place in the Fed’s armory in any future crisis. The Bank of England, shaken by June’s surprise vote to leave the European Union, cut interest rates to their lowest in its 322-year history last week but said it was reluctant to go negative. BOE Gov. Mark Carney said he is “not a fan” of a policy that has negative consequences for savers and the financial system. European banks say their profitability has been hit hard by low rates. Some central bankers say it is too early to judge negative rates. “The effect won’t be seen all at once, but it will gradually become clear,” said Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda in a June news conference.

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Governments should stay out of housing markets. Their only interest is make banks make money.

Fannie And Freddie Could Need $126 Billion To Get Through A Crisis (R.)

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two government-controlled housing finance agencies, would need a big cash injection to weather another financial meltdown, a government regulator said on Monday. Fannie and Freddie would need as much as $126 billion in taxpayer funds to come through a serious downturn, according to a ‘stress test’ from the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The companies, which were once owned by shareholders, have drawn $187 billion from the U.S. Treasury since they were seized by the government in September 2008 as the global financial crisis tightened. Since then, as the housing market has strengthened, they have returned roughly $250 billion to the Treasury. Lawmakers have not settled on the future of two companies. The ‘stress test’ required by the Dodd Frank reform legislation of 2010 projected the companies would have to draw at least $49 billion to $126 billion in the case of a serious economic downturn.

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People are forced to use Help to Buy: it acts as an insurance policy in case homes lose value. Then the taxpayer pays.

UK Government Has Gambled Hundreds Of Millions On House Price Rises (TiM)

Taxpayers stand to lose hundreds of millions of pounds if house prices fall, thanks to a gamble the government has been making with our cash for the past three years. Some £3.59billion has been lent to first-time buyers through the Help to Buy loan scheme to help them purchase newly-built properties they may not otherwise have been able to afford, according to the latest government statistics. The scheme was launched by the former Chancellor George Osborne in 2013, in response to a stagnating housing market. It effectively lets borrowers with small deposits top them up with a government loan, worth up to 20% of the value of a new build property.

For the 81,014 buyers who have taken advantage of the scheme so far, it has been an invaluable lifeline, the difference between making that step on to the first hallowed rung of the property ladder and continuing to rent. However, the side effect of the scheme leaves taxpayer funds extremely vulnerable to losses if house prices start to fall. This is because the size of loans is not fixed, but rather is measured as a proportion of the value of the properties bought. Take, for example a first-time buyer who uses the scheme to buy a home costing £300,000. They could borrow up to 20% of the value of the property – £60,000 – using Help to Buy, and put down just a 5% deposit themselves.

However, the size of the loan remains 20% of the value of the property – regardless of how it fluctuates. So if the house increases in value by 10% to £330,000, the value of the loan will increase by 10% as well to £66,000. The taxpayer turns a profit. But if the value of the home declines by 10% to £270,000, the value of the loan will decrease to £54,000. Taxpayers will just have to suck up the £6,000 shortfall. A total of £3.59billion has been lent out so far. If the value of the homes they helped paid for drops by just 10%, the borrowers will be off the hook for as much as £359million – a cost that will be picked up by the taxpayer.

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And this is what you get when a government blows a bubble.

One In Three British Families Are A Month’s Pay From Losing Homes (G.)

More than one in three families in England are a monthly pay packet away from losing their homes, according to research by Shelter highlighting how many households have almost no savings. The housing charity found that 37% of working families would be unable to cover their housing costs for more than a month if one partner lost their job. The findings mirror government figures, which show that there are 16.5 million working age adults in the UK with no savings. Campbell Robb, the chief executive of Shelter, said: “These figures are a stark reminder that sky-high housing costs are leaving millions of working families stretched to breaking point and barely scraping by from one paycheque to the next.

“Any one of us could hit a bump along life’s road, and at Shelter, we speak to parents every day who, after losing their job or seeing their hours cut, are terrified of losing the roof over their children’s heads too.” The charity is calling for an improved welfare safety net to prevent families where someone loses a job from “hurtling towards homelessness”. The phenomenon of the working poor, those earning a regular salary, but living from one paycheque to the next with no savings to speak of, is a widespread feature in English-speaking western economies such as the UK, Canada, the US and Australia. An annual survey by US website Bankrate found that 63% of Americans have no emergency savings for necessities such as a $1,000 (£770) emergency room visit or a $500 car repair. Most turn to credit cards when financial disaster looms.

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If they didn’t, where would their share prices be?

Vulnerable UK Banks Still Pay Billions In Dividends To Shareholders (Ind.)

Three of the UK’s biggest banks have paid out billions of pounds in dividends to investors while turning a blind eye to huge capital holes in their balance sheets, researchers argue. The findings, which come in the wake of estimates the UK banking sector has an aggregate £155bn shortfall of capital, will reinforce calls for the Bank of England to take a tougher stance on the capital adequacy of the lenders it oversees and to restrict the payment of dividends. Between 2010 and 2015 HSBC paid out £37bn in dividends, Barclays paid out £6.3bn and Lloyds paid out £2.3bn according to the calculations of Sascha Steffen of the University of Mannheim, Viral Acharya of New York University and Diane Pierret of the University of Lausanne.

If this cash had been retained by the banks it could have boosted their capital buffers by an equivalent amount. The three researchers last month produced an estimate that suggested UK banks would be massively exposed and at high risk of going bust in another serious financial crisis. They found that the majority state-owned Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds, Barclays and HSBC could collectively need to raise another £155bn of capital to maintain a comfortable equity safety buffer in the wake of a fresh crisis based on the market value of their equity.

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Can’t say it enough: ““There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.”

A Crisis Of Intervention (Price)

For those that already have, Mark Carney is the gift that keeps on giving. Borrowed imprudently and struggling to make those interest payments ? Worry not; the Bank of England has your back. For those that don’t have, the Bank of England is taking away your chance of ever realistically saving anything, now that interest rates have been driven down to new historic lows of 0.25%, and may go lower yet. For the asset-rich, for the 1%, for property speculators, and for zombie companies and banks, Carney is your man. For the asset poor, or for savers, or pensioners, or insurance companies, or pension funds, the Bank of England has morphed from being anti-inflationary fireman to monetary arsonist. The economist Ludwig von Mises foresaw all this, nearly a century ago.

He called it “the crisis of interventionism”. Actions have consequences everywhere (except in Keynesian and Marxist economic theory). Interfere with the free market process and inefficiency and complexity are certain to rise. More actions and interventions are required. Pretty soon the entire system becomes a Heath Robinson contraption requiring constant amendments and ad hoc fixes and bolt-on workarounds. Welcome to the modern monetary system – the last, doomed refuge of the central planner with messianic delusions of adequacy. “The essence of the interventionist policy is to take from one group to give to another. It is confiscation and distribution. Every measure is ultimately justified by declaring that it is fair to curb the rich for the benefit of the poor.”

But so warped has our monetary system become after almost a decade of furious interventionism that Mark Carney’s redistributive efforts don’t even attempt to deliver to that objective. With interest rates fast approaching the theoretical lower bound of zero, Mark Carney is curbing the prospects of the poor for the benefit of the rich. He is redistributing capital from the prudent saver and gifting it to the borrower and the speculator. A crisis of too much debt is being met with ever more urgent attempts to prime the credit pump. Mises had something to say about credit expansion, too. “There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

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Right. Spain. Hasn’t had a real government in a long time now. Unemployment is sky high. So everyone wants their bonds… Not. But Draghi buys all.

Spanish 10-Year Bond Yield Falls Below 1% for First Time (BBG)

Spanish 10-year bond yields fell below 1% for the first time on record Monday, marking another milestone in the four-year rally in the nation’s securities. The drop highlights how local political risk is being offset by monetary easing by central banks across the developed world. The yield fell to as low as 0.99%, down from more than 7.75% during the euro region’s debt crisis in July 2012.

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Strange headline for an article that translates as: BUBBLE!

China Leaders Head to the Beach, With Calmer Seas Ahead (BBG)

China’s top leaders are gathering for their annual conclave at the Beidaihe beach resort having defied the doomsayers once more. Economic data in coming days are projected to confirm the stabilization in growth achieved in the first half of this year continued into July. The backdrop of calm has won China a sustained respite from the financial-market turmoil and capital outflows that accompanied the Communist leadership’s traditional beach-resort meeting last year. But the stability has come at a cost. Instead of delivering on what Premier Li Keqiang called reforms so tough they’d be like cutting “flesh,” authorities have relied on another dose of cheap credit to prop things up.

That’s added more leverage to a nation where debt is already 2.5 times the economy’s size. Behind the reluctance for a bigger economic shakeup is a desire for stability ahead of a potentially wide-ranging reshuffle of the Communist hierarchy next year, according to Credit Suisse. “Candidates will prefer to be playing it safe rather than executing substantial reforms – especially state-owned enterprise reforms,” the bank’s China analysts, led by Vincent Chan, wrote last month. State-owned enterprises offer the major lever for ramping up growth through infrastructure spending, making officials reluctant to implement wide-ranging changes.

Yet their dominance in access to capital has squeezed opportunities for the more efficient private sector, contributing to a build-up in non-performing loans. “The immediate consequences of course are a relatively becalmed economy, which seems to have some staying power,” said George Magnus, senior economic adviser to UBS. “But at what cost in the medium to longer term if there’s no change in the instability-causing policies?”

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He needs to avoid the idea that the elites will profit most. This will be thrown at him no matter if it’s true or not.

Trump Tax Cuts Would Be Costly (CNBC)

Call it a work in progress. GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump unveiled Monday the latest version of his plan to overhaul the American tax code, offering relief for everyone from parents paying for child care to the world’s largest corporations. But it remains to be seen where the money will come from to pay for those cuts. Details of the plan are still fairly sketchy, but in his speech at the Detroit Economic Club, Trump promised they would be forthcoming soon. “In the coming weeks we will be offering more detail on all of these policies,” Trump said Monday. The Trump campaign has promised that the tax plan would “benefit working families while ensuring the wealthy pay their fair share.”

But based on details of Trump’s plan released earlier in the campaign, some analysts think the biggest winners would be those at the top of the income ladder. “The proposal would cut taxes at every income level, but high-income taxpayers would receive the biggest cuts, both in dollar terms and as a percentage of income,” according to an analysis in December by the Tax Policy Center. Trump’s campaign said Monday the tax plan would “dramatically reduce taxes for everyone and streamline deductions, presenting the biggest tax reform since [the] Reagan [administration].” But based on the details released so far, the plan would also explode the federal budget deficit, add trillions of dollars to the national debt and substantially raise the government’s interest payments, according to several independent analysts.

Trump’s tax cuts would amount to some $12 trillion over the next decade, according to the Tax Foundation. Even after accounting for stronger economic growth, the plan would leave the government more than $10 trillion short over the next 10 years. That money would have to be made up for with more borrowing, dramatically expanding the nation’s debt. Trump also promised to ease the burden on American corporations by limiting taxes to 15 percent. The campaign has also promised to “make our corporate tax globally competitive and the United States the most attractive place to invest in the world.” Based on the latest available data, that promise should be fairly easy to keep.

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Security experts? They’re neocons. Brilliant riposte: “We thank them for coming forward so everyone in the country knows who deserves the blame for making the world such a dangerous place..”

Republican Security Experts Rail Against Trump In Open Letter (BBC)

An open letter signed by 50 Republican national security experts has warned that nominee Donald Trump “would be the most reckless president” in US history. The group, which includes the former CIA director Michael Hayden, said Mr Trump “lacks the character, values and experience” to be president. Many of the signatories had declined to sign a similar note in March. In response, Mr Trump said they were part of a “failed Washington elite” looking to hold on to power. The open letter comes after a number of high-profile Republicans stepped forward to disown the property tycoon. Mr Trump has broken with years of Republican foreign policy on a number of occasions.

The Republican candidate has questioned whether the US should honour its commitments to Nato, endorsed the use of torture and suggested that South Korea and Japan should arm themselves with nuclear weapons. “He weakens US moral authority as the leader of the free world,” the letter read. “He appears to lack basic knowledge about and belief in the US Constitution, US laws, and US institutions, including religious tolerance, freedom of the press, and an independent judiciary.” “None of us will vote for Donald Trump,” the letter states. In a statement, Mr Trump said the names on the letter were “the ones the American people should look to for answers on why the world is a mess”.

“We thank them for coming forward so everyone in the country knows who deserves the blame for making the world such a dangerous place,” he continued. “They are nothing more than the failed Washington elite looking to hold on to their power and it’s time they are held accountable for their actions.” Also among those who signed the letter were John Negroponte, the first director of national intelligence and later deputy secretary of state; Robert Zoellick, who was also a former deputy secretary of state and former president of the World Bank; and two former secretaries of homeland security, Tom Ridge and Michael Chertoff.

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Surprised?

US Taxes Well Spent: Pentagon Can’t Account for $6.5 Trillion (Sputnik)

While US lawmakers are applying pressure on the Pentagon to be more transparent about how it spends money, a new report shows that the Defense Department’s substandard bookkeeping practices make that virtually impossible. Despite a 1996 law requiring all federal agencies to conduct regular spending audits, the Pentagon has so far failed to conduct a single one. While US lawmakers have pressed the DoD to comply by September of 2017, a new inspector general’s report indicates that meeting this deadline is highly unlikely.

“Army and Defense Finance and Accounting Service Indianapolis personnel did not adequately support $2.8 trillion in third quarter adjustments and $6.5 trillion in year-end adjustments made to Army General Fund (AGF) data during FY 2015 financial statement compilation,” the report reads. In common language, the Pentagon has no idea how it spent nearly $7 trillion. This is largely due to the fact that the DoD fails to provide the “journal vouchers” for its transactions, intended to provide serial numbers and dates, for bookkeeping purposes. But the report also found that many of the Pentagon’s records were missing without explanation.

“DFAS Indianapolis did not document or support why the Defense Departmental Reporting System-Budgetary, a budgetary reporting system, removed at least 16,513 of 1.3 million records during third quarter FY 2015,” the report reads. While nothing suggests foul play, a lack of proper accounting makes it impossible to determine how much money the Pentagon spends, and on what.

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There is a huge potential for this to backfire. Facebook better watch out.

Facebook Removes Potential Evidence Of Police Brutality Too Readily (I’Cept)

As more details emerge about last week’s killing by Baltimore County police of 23-year-old Korryn Gaines, activists have directed growing anger not only at local law enforcement but also at Facebook, the social media platform where Gaines posted parts of her five-hour standoff with police. At the request of law enforcement, Facebook deleted Gaines’ account, as well her account on Instagram, which it also owns, during her confrontation with authorities. While many of her videos remain inaccessible, in one, which was re-uploaded to YouTube, an officer can be seen pointing a gun as he peers into a living room from behind a door, while a child’s voice is heard in the background. In another video, which remains on Instagram, Gaines can be heard speaking to her five-year-old son, who’s sitting on the floor wearing red pajamas.

“Who’s outside?” she asks him. “The police,” he replies timidly. “What are they trying to do?” “They trying to kill us.” Statements made by officials in the days after the incident revealed little-known details of a “law enforcement portal” through which agencies can ask for Facebook’s collaboration in emergencies, a feature of the site that remains mostly obscure to the general public and which has been criticized following Gaines’ death. It’s not the first time Facebook has become the stage on which violent encounters between law enforcement and residents play out – and it seems likely more and more such incidents will be documented on the social media hub, given that the company’s livestreaming app, Facebook Live, is only nine months old and spreading at a time when recording police has become an instinctive reflex in some communities.

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We can see the earth disappear beneath our feet.

More Than 60% Of Maldives’ Coral Reefs Hit By Bleaching (G.)

More than 60% of coral in reefs in the Maldives has been hit by “bleaching” as the world is gripped by record temperatures in 2016, a scientific survey suggests. Bleaching happens when algae that lives in the coral is expelled due to stress caused by extreme and sustained changes in temperatures, turning the coral white and putting it at risk of dying if conditions do not return to normal. Unusually warm ocean temperatures due to climate change and a strong “El Nino” phenomenon that pushes up temperatures further have led to coral reefs worldwide being affected in a global bleaching event over the past two years. Preliminary results of a survey in May this year found all the reefs looked at in the Maldives, in the Indian Ocean, were affected by high sea surface temperatures.

Around 60% of all assessed coral colonies, and up to 90% in some areas, were bleached. The study was conducted by the Maldives Marine Research Centre and the Environmental Protection Agency, in partnership with the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). It took place on Alifu Alifu Atholhu – North Ari Atoll – chosen as a representative atoll of the Maldives. Dr Ameer Abdulla, research team leader and senior adviser to the IUCN on marine biodiversity and conservation science, said: “Bleaching events are becoming more frequent and more severe due to global climate change. “Our survey was undertaken at the height of the 2016 event and preliminary findings of the extent of the bleaching are alarming, with initial coral mortality already observed. “We are expecting this mortality to increase if bleached corals are unable to recover.”

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