Feb 192015
 
 February 19, 2015  Posted by at 1:20 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  2 Responses »


Russell Lee “Yreka, California, seat of a county rich in mineral deposits” 1942

The US Will Have To Bail Out Greece (MarketWatch)
Greece – It’s a Revolution, Stupid! (Mathew D. Rose)
Germany Rejects Greece’s Application To Extend Its Loan Agreement (CNBC)
Europe and Greece Are at War Over Nothing (Bloomberg ed.)
How I Became An Erratic Marxist (Yanis Varoufakis)
For Greece And Many Others, Economic Reform Kills Economic Health (Steve Keen)
February 24 To Be The First Crunch Day For Greek State Coffers (Kathimerini)
Greek Debt Payment Plan Offers Huge Haircut (Kathimerini)
Greek Philosophy: Conflict Of Ideas Driving The Crisis (CNBC)
Greece Runs Up The Austerity White Flag In Brussels (Guardian)
Besieged Ukraine Town Debaltseve Falls (Reuters)
‘Guantanamo of the East’: Ukraine Locks Up Refugees at EU’s Behest (Spiegel)
Ukraine Finance Minister’s American ‘Values’ (Robert Parry)
Are the World’s Biggest Banks Moving Money for Terrorists? (Bloomberg)

“The IMF looks to have abdicated all responsibility for fixing the mess.”

The US Will Have To Bail Out Greece (MarketWatch)

Fighting has flared up again in the Ukraine. The Egyptians are sending soldiers into Libya as another North African state collapses into chaos. The militants of Islamic State are spreading their influence across the region. You’d think Barack Obama might have bigger foreign policy issues to worry about than a small state of 10 million people on the eastern edges of the Mediterranean. But Greece may be about to turn from a European into an American problem. As the game of brinkmanship between the radical Syriza government elected last month and the European Union gets played out, it has become increasingly clear that both sides may have a strong interest in the talks failing. The IMF looks to have abdicated all responsibility for fixing the mess.

The worrying point is this: Both sides have an increasing interest in a catastrophic failure. But the U.S., with the U.K. perhaps in a subsidiary role, has an equally strong interest in a stable Greece. If a crunch comes, America will have no choice but to bail Greece out. How? It may well need to extend emergency loans, prop up its banks, and if necessary help it establish a new currency as well. On Monday, talks between Greece and the finance ministers of the eurozone ended chaotically. The Syriza government, led by the charismatic young Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, is committed to ending the austerity regime imposed on Athens by the EU and the IMF and is refusing to borrow any more money under the terms of the bailout agreement.

The rest of the EU, led by Germany, is standing firm. It may be willing to make some minor concessions, such as rebranding the loans or extending their duration. But it does not look willing to compromise on the core issue — that Greece has to stick to the austerity plan, and keep tight controls on public spending. There may still be a deal to be struck. Greece after all only accounts for a small percentage of the total eurozone economy. Its debts amount to just 315 billion euros, hardly a massive sum in the context of an economic bloc with a total gross domestic product of €9.5 trillion. But the worrying point is this: Both sides have an increasing interest in a catastrophic failure.

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“The German government has never wanted democratic reform in Greece..”

Greece – It’s a Revolution, Stupid! (Mathew D. Rose)

I fear most people have become so fixated on the Greek debt and the fate of the Euro, that they have completely ignored the political dimensions of the current conflict in Europe, shich are no less dramatic. The ongoing dispute between the German and Greek governments is nothing less than a democratic revolution against German hegemony and the attempt of the Germans and their paladins in the EU to dictate Greek domestic policy. It is a struggle by the Greeks to re-establish national sovereignty. What is more, this is the first time in the history of the EU that a political party with true leftist credentials has led a member nation. For reactionary Germany, with its neoliberal agenda, that is intolerable. This conflict is profound, if not existential, and thus could well be intractable.

The Greek people have made a decision to liberate themselves from a repressive regime of austerity and its incumbent humanitarian disaster. The Germans on the other hand refer to the developments of the past five years in Greece as a success. Yes, it has been a success in the sense that the Germans and French were able to rescue their banks and leave the Greek people to foot the bill. It was even more successful in that Greece was stripped of its political and economic autonomy – with the assistance of the quislings Antonis Samaras and Evangelos Venizelos. The German government has never wanted democratic reform in Greece, leaving the perpetrators of the Greek financial crisis, the political and financial elites, unscathed.

Success has meant Greece being reduced to a vassal state, raising the market above all other values, where multinational corporations, including German companies, could take over profitable state assets cheaply and German tourists could enjoy cut-rate holidays or buy holiday homes at bargain prices. What occurred in Greece with the bailout is an occupation, not with troops and panzers, but by financial means. Following the recent elections in Greece, Germany and its EU compradors are making it clear who is in charge. The Germans are currently not offering any compromise, but iterate the same blunt demand: Greece has to accept what is being dictated; in other words, capitulate or be annihilated. This time it will not be the Wehrmacht und Luftwaffe that are to force the Greek nation into submission, but a weapon just as lethal: national bankruptcy.

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“The letter does not meet the criteria agreed by the Eurogroup on Monday..”

Germany Rejects Greece’s Application To Extend Its Loan Agreement (CNBC)

Germany has rejected Greece’s application to extend its loan agreement and renegotiate the terms of its bailout, raising the very real threat of Athens running out of money in the coming weeks. The Berlin government Thursday said Greece’s application for a six-month extension of its loan and a renegotiation of some its terms was “no substantial solution.” “In truth it goes in the direction of a bridge financing, without fulfilling the demands of the program. The letter does not meet the criteria agreed by the Eurogroup on Monday,” German finance ministry spokesman Martin Jaeger said in a statement.

Earlier Thursday Athens had formally placed a request to prolong its “master financial assistance facility agreement.” In the proposal the left-leaning Syriza Party had offered a series of concessions to the previous hardline stance that it would unilaterally scrap the austerity measures imposed as part of the country’s €240 billion bailout. However, the Greek proposal Thursday had pledged to work with the EU and the IMF in reworking the terms of the bailout and to not make any unilateral decisions when it came to the terms of the austerity package.

The Eurogroup of finance ministers from the 19 countries that use the single currency is due to meet on Friday to discuss the Greek plan. There has to be unanimous agreement among the group for any policy decision to go ahea.d The current program – which included the EU and IMF as creditors – was due to expire in little more than a week. Without further funds, Greece would soon run out of money rasing the prospect of a default on its bonds and a possible exit from the euro zone.

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“The EU is staking the future of its monetary union not on principles but on semantics.”

Europe and Greece Are at War Over Nothing (Bloomberg ed.)

Even by the demanding standards of European dysfunction, the continuing standoff between Greece and the other euro countries is impressive. On substance, the distance between the two sides has narrowed almost to nothing — yet the stalemate and the risk of a new financial crisis drag on as if it were vast. The EU is staking the future of its monetary union not on principles but on semantics. Initially, the new Greek government was at fault for making reckless election promises and presenting these to its European Union partners as non-negotiable. It has since climbed down a long way – in particular, dropping its demand for big debt write-downs. Now it wants a new bailout with softer terms and a temporary arrangement to bridge the financing gap between the present deal and the new one.

Reportedly, it’s even willing to call this bridge an “extension.” With Germany’s government leading the demand for strict propriety, Europe’s response has been to say that the current program must be successfully concluded, perhaps with some flexibility, before anything else can be discussed. So here’s the puzzle. What’s the difference between an extension that’s a bridge to a new program and an extension with flexibility pending agreement on a new program? To the sane observer, too little to care. Yet because of this difference, whatever it may be, the euro system threatens to break apart. Funny, isn’t it, that Europe’s voters express growing disenchantment with the whole project?

The situation is all the more absurd because the details of any transitional provisions don’t much matter anyway. What’s crucial are the terms of the new longer-term agreement — which the EU is refusing to discuss until Greece capitulates. The need for a new deal isn’t seriously disputed. The existing bailout imposed too tight a fiscal squeeze, which held back growth. The country’s debt burden therefore failed to shrink as intended in relation to gross domestic product. The error has been widely acknowledged, including by the International Monetary Fund (one of the plan’s architects) and by other EU governments.

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“Europe’s crisis is far less likely to give birth to a better alternative to capitalism than it is to unleash dangerously regressive forces..”Europe’s crisis is far less likely to give birth to a better alternative to capitalism than it is to unleash dangerously regressive forces

How I Became An Erratic Marxist (Yanis Varoufakis)

In 2008, capitalism had its second global spasm. The financial crisis set off a chain reaction that pushed Europe into a downward spiral that continues to this day. Europe’s present situation is not merely a threat for workers, for the dispossessed, for the bankers, for social classes or, indeed, nations. No, Europe’s current posture poses a threat to civilisation as we know it. If my prognosis is correct, and we are not facing just another cyclical slump soon to be overcome, the question that arises for radicals is this: should we welcome this crisis of European capitalism as an opportunity to replace it with a better system? Or should we be so worried about it as to embark upon a campaign for stabilising European capitalism?

To me, the answer is clear. Europe’s crisis is far less likely to give birth to a better alternative to capitalism than it is to unleash dangerously regressive forces that have the capacity to cause a humanitarian bloodbath, while extinguishing the hope for any progressive moves for generations to come.For this view I have been accused, by well-meaning radical voices, of being “defeatist” and of trying to save an indefensible European socioeconomic system. This criticism, I confess, hurts. And it hurts because it contains more than a kernel of truth. I share the view that this European Union is typified by a large democratic deficit that, in combination with the denial of the faulty architecture of its monetary union, has put Europe’s peoples on a path to permanent recession.

And I also bow to the criticism that I have campaigned on an agenda founded on the assumption that the left was, and remains, squarely defeated. I confess I would much rather be promoting a radical agenda, the raison d’être of which is to replace European capitalism with a different system. Yet my aim here is to offer a window into my view of a repugnant European capitalism whose implosion, despite its many ills, should be avoided at all costs. It is a confession intended to convince radicals that we have a contradictory mission: to arrest the freefall of European capitalism in order to buy the time we need to formulate its alternative.

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“I want you to bear this empirical reality in mind when you consider the pressure that is being applied to Greece to get it to “stick with the program..”

For Greece And Many Others, Economic Reform Kills Economic Health (Steve Keen)

A quick quiz: which four countries do you think have done the most to reform their economies over the last seven years? OK, who said Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain? No one? Actually, someone did: the OECD. Yes, I kid you not, according to the OECD, the country that has done the most to reform its economy over the last seven years—that is, from before the 2008 economic crisis until well after it—is Greece. Followed at some distance by Portugal, Ireland and Spain. I saw this in a tweet, and even though I am a total sceptic on the value of what conventional economists call “economic reform”, I still couldn’t believe this graphic: surely it was an Onion spoof? I simply had to go searching to see for myself.

And there it was, on page 111 of the OECD’s publication Going For Growth 2015, released on February 9 (in a slightly different form, and with New Zealand pipping in between Ireland and Spain—maybe this graphic was revised later). The top economic reformers were the basket cases of Europe and the world in general. Unemployment in Greece is 27%; in Portugal it’s 15%, Ireland 12%, and Spain 25%. Those are very, very sick economies. And yet they are also the OECD’s top reformers. You are, I hope, wondering “how come? Isn’t reform supposed to be good for you?” Well, that’s the fairy story—sorry, theory—purveyed and fervently believed in by mainstream economists: reform your economies according to our recommendations, and—whatever else happens—your economy will grow more rapidly and be more stable to boot.

Unfortunately for those purveying this fairytale, they also developed metrics by which the degree of reform could be measured, so that a decade later, we can compare the fairy story to the reality. And one quick look shows that we’ve been had. We were told to expect the beautiful Cinderella at the economic ball; instead we got one of her ugly step-sisters. I’ll cover at length someday soon why economic reform as recommended by mainstream economists will normally make your economy more dysfunctional and unstable. For now, I want you to bear this empirical reality in mind when you consider the pressure that is being applied to Greece to get it to “stick with the program” invented for it by the EU.

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“Finance Ministry officials assure they have identified resources they could tap if a small extension on Greece’s bailout obligations, up to the first week of March, is granted from the eurozone.”

February 24 To Be The First Crunch Day For Greek State Coffers (Kathimerini)

February 24 is expected to be the first crucial day for state finances, as projections of cash flows see state coffers starting to run dry on that date. Finance Ministry officials, however, assure they have identified resources they could tap if a small extension on Greece’s bailout obligations, up to the first week of March, is granted from the eurozone. The state of cash reserves – not robust before – has deteriorated further in recent days due to a shortfall in revenues, as a €1 billion hole in January revenues is putting the execution of the state budget in jeopardy and hampering the management of cash reserves. According to figures released yesterday by the Bank of Greece, in January the net cash result of the central administration posted a deficit of €217 million, against a surplus of €603 million in January 2014.

Budget revenues reached €3.1 billion, against 4.4 billion in January 2014, while expenditure dropped to €3.2 billion from €3.6 billion last year. Given these figures, the Finance Ministry estimates that cash reserves will run out next Tuesday. It has the option, however, of using the reserves of general government entities kept in commercial banks in order to cover short-term needs next week. However, the problem that cannot be addressed as things stand concerns needs for the first week of March. Unless something changes drastically to the country’s funding, Greece will not be able to fulfill all of its March obligations. Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis had called on the ECB to increase the limit of treasury bills to €23 billion from the current 15 billion in a bid to address this shortfall.

The additional funds would have covered the state’s short-term obligations while also providing a cushion until the Greek government is able to strike a deal with its eurozone partners. The request, however, was rejected, as the ECB deemed it an act of direct monetary funding: In practical terms the European Central Bank would have been financing the obligations of a state, which contravenes its regulations.

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“Depending on the number of installments, there will be a reduction to penalties and fines ranging from 30% to 90%..”

Greek Debt Payment Plan Offers Huge Haircut (Kathimerini)

A new repayment plan for expired debts to the state and social security funds announced by the government on Wednesday provides for a reduction to the fines and penalties levied against debtors as well as for a writedown of the original debt, reaching as much as 50% rate in some cases. The new scheme, which has already generated concern among Greece’s international creditors but also among consistent taxpayers, foresees the repayment of debts in up to 100 monthly installments regardless of their size. The minimum installment will be set at €20, while for debts up to €5,000 there will be no interest attached. Depending on the number of installments, there will be a reduction to penalties and fines ranging from 30% to 90%, and in cases of repayment in a lump sum the penalties will be written off entirely.

Crucially, for debts generated up until December 31, 2013, a part of the original debt can be written off, by as much as 50% in certain cases. The plan further waives the limit of 1 million euros for debts that can be negotiated for settlement, making repayment easier for major state debtors. In presenting the new scheme yesterday, Alternate Finance Minister Nadia Valavani stressed that this will be the very last opportunity given to taxpayers to settle their debts to the state. She added that at a later stage there will be another, more favorable plan, concerning only those who find themselves in financial hardship. Ministry calculations show that out of the €76 billion of outstanding debts by taxpayers and corporations to the state, no more than €9 billion can actually be collected.

Social security funds are anticipating a total of €1.2 billion from debt repayments this year thanks to the new plan, from total arrears of €20 billion. The bill in Parliament, which Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said on Tuesday would be put before Parliament on Thursday, has been postponed until next week. The official explanation cites a need for technical changes to be made to draft, though it has been suggested that the postponement of the process was decided in order to prevent a reaction from the country’s creditors in this week’s crucial negotiations.

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“Whether “doing what is right” in this case means “doing what Varoufakis wants” is, of course, open to debate.”

Greek Philosophy: Conflict Of Ideas Driving The Crisis (CNBC)

As European politicians ponder how to solve the current impasse over Greece’s debts to international creditors, some of the key players seem to be digging out their philosophy books.The country’s erudite Finance Minister, Yanis Varoufakis, cited German philosopher Immanuel Kant in a New York Times editorial published Tuesday – a nice reminder of Europe’s shared cultural history – as he pled with those reading to help the Greek people escape the bonds of austerity. Kant “taught us that the rational and the free escape the empire of expediency by doing what is right,” he argued.

Whether “doing what is right” in this case means “doing what Varoufakis wants” is, of course, open to debate. Wolfgang Schaueble, the German finance minister, seemed to be adopting a rather dogmatic philosophy, by contrast. When asked about the potential for changes to the existing programme by German state television channel ZDF Tuesday night, he said: “It’s not about extending a credit programme but about whether this bailout programme will be fulfilled, yes or no.”

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I don’t think so.

Greece Runs Up The Austerity White Flag In Brussels (Guardian)

The white flag has been raised over Athens. Greece has bowed to the intense pressure of its eurozone partners and will stick to austerity. After defiantly saying for the past three weeks that it will end the country’s fiscal waterboarding, the Syriza-led government is suing for peace. That, bluntly, is the only way to interpret news that Greece has formally asked for a six-month extension to its bailout agreement. There is no longer the pretence that the bailout is to be replaced by a loan agreement with no strings attached. The hated troika of the European Central Bank, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund will be monitoring Greece’s economy for the next six months, something that has been anathema to Syriza until now.

The Greek government has some demands of its own. It wants to negotiate a new growth deal for the four years until 2019. It is asking for debt relief under the terms of the bailout agreement signed in November 2012. And it wants to be able to take steps to deal with the humanitarian crisis caused by the 25% collapse in the size of the economy over the past five years. None of these demands are unreasonable. Indeed, they are all entirely sensible. As Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research has noted, for every euro the Greek government has saved through spending cuts or tax increases the economy has contracted by €1.2. Austerity has resulted in Greece’s debt to GDP ratio going up, not down. A change of tack is overdue. It is unlikely, though, that Syriza will get much of what it wants. The rest of Europe does not really want to negotiate with Alexis Tsipras and his finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis; it wants capitulation.

What’s more, it is in a position to get it. Tsipras has two big weaknesses. Firstly, Greece is suffering from capital flight and is dependent on emergency support from the ECB for its banks. This funding has just been increased by the ECB but not by as much as Greece would have liked. The life support could be cut off at any time. Secondly, and perhaps more significantly, Greece has failed to deploy its most potent weapon: a threat to leave the euro. For all the talk in Brussels and Berlin that the single currency could withstand a Greek departure from the single currency, the threat of withdrawal would have put the frighteners on. Would the euro group really want to risk chaos given the shaky state of the economy? Would Angela Merkel want to go down in history as the German chancellor responsible for rolling back more than half a century of European integration?

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Curiously left out of the ceasefire deal.

Besieged Ukraine Town Debaltseve Falls (Reuters)

Ukraine pulled thousands of troops out of an encircled town on Wednesday after a massive assault by pro-Russian rebels, who ignored a new ceasefire to seize the strategic railway junction. The fall of the besieged town of Debaltseve was one of the worst defeats of the war for Ukraine’s troops, who proved unable to stop an advance by Moscow-backed rebels fighting for territory the Kremlin calls “New Russia”. President Petro Poroshenko told security chiefs on Wednesday night that six Ukrainian soldiers had been killed during the pullout from Debaltseve. “According to preliminary data, six Ukrainian heroes were killed during the withdrawal, more than 100 were wounded,” he said, according to Interfax news agency.

Twenty-two Ukrainian soldiers had earlier been killed in the town in the past few days, the Ukrainian military high command said, with more than 150 wounded. Poroshenko, who flew to the frontline, nevertheless tried to cast the battle in a positive light, saying that by holding out as long as they had, Ukraine’s troops had exposed “the true face of the bandits and separatists who are supported by Russia”. The Ukrainian troops had held out for three days beyond the start of a Europe-brokered ceasefire, forcing the rebels to disavow the truce to pursue their advance on the town. Ukrainian troops, their faces blackened, some in columns, some in cars, arrived in Artemivsk, about 30 km (20 miles) north of Debaltseve in government-held territory.

Fighting did not halt with the retreat. A Reuters correspondent near Debaltseve saw black smoke rising over the town and heard loud blasts hours after the withdrawal began. “One hundred and sixty-seven wounded have been taken to Artemivsk. They did not pick up a lot of bodies. I don’t know the total figure,” Semen Semenchenko, who heads the Donbass paramilitary battalion, said on Facebook.

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Bet you never knew.

‘Guantanamo of the East’: Ukraine Locks Up Refugees at EU’s Behest (Spiegel)

Hasan Hirsi has been learning German for the last year and a half, and recently even enrolled in a class that meets for five hours a day, from 1 to 6 p.m. Nevertheless, he still has no words to describe what happened to him before his arrival in Germany. Hirsi, a 21-year-old refugee from Somalia, is huddled on a worn sofa in an apartment in Landau, a small town in southwestern Germany, which he shares with three other Somalian asylum-seekers. He is wearing a gray hoodie and has short, black hair. A retiree from Landau who has volunteered to assist the refugees is sitting next to him. He wants to help Hirsi adjust to his new life in Europe.

But Hirsi is finding it difficult to forget the past. Indeed, he still has nightmares about Ukraine, a place where he became stranded for a lengthy stay on his way to Europe. He now refers to the country as “hell.” Staring at the floor, Hirsi says: “It is difficult.” He repeats the same word, “difficult,” in different languages. After fleeing from Somalia in the summer of 2008, Hirsi tried several times to reach Europe through Ukraine. He was detained once each by Ukrainian and Hungarian border patrols, and twice by police in Slovakia. Ukrainian security forces robbed, beat and tortured him, he says. After being apprehended, he spent almost three years in four different Ukrainian prisons – for committing no crime other thanseeking shelter and protection in Europe.

Most migrants reach Europe through Italy or Greece and many of them die on the way. A broad coalition, ranging from Pope Francis to German President Joachim Gauck, is demanding better protection for refugees on Europe’s southern border and the United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR, describes the route across the Mediterranean as the world’s deadliest. But when it comes to the eastern route, and the fate of migrants like Hasan Hirsi, interest has thus far been limited. SPIEGEL and “Report Mainz,” a program on Germany’s ARD public television network, have now taken a closer look at the stories of refugees who were locked up in Ukrainian prisons for months during their journeys to Europe.

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Bad smell.

Ukraine Finance Minister’s American ‘Values’ (Robert Parry)

Ukraine’s new Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko, who has become the face of reform for the U.S.-backed regime in Kiev and will be a key figure handling billions of dollars in Western financial aid, was at the center of insider deals and other questionable activities when she ran a $150 million U.S.-taxpayer-financed investment fund. Prior to taking Ukrainian citizenship and becoming Finance Minister last December, Jaresko was a former U.S. diplomat who served as chief executive officer of the Western NIS Enterprise Fund (WNISEF), which was created by Congress in the 1990s and overseen by the U.S. Agency for International Development (U.S. AID) to help jumpstart an investment economy in Ukraine.

But Jaresko, who was limited to making $150,000 a year at WNISEF under the U.S. AID grant agreement, managed to earn more than that amount, reporting in 2004 that she was paid $383,259 along with $67,415 in expenses, according to WNISEF’s public filing with the Internal Revenue Service. Later, Jaresko’s compensation was removed from public disclosure altogether after she co-founded two entities in 2006: Horizon Capital Associates (HCA) to manage WNISEF’s investments (and collect around $1 million a year in fees) and Emerging Europe Growth Fund (EEGF) to collaborate with WNISEF on investment deals. Jaresko formed HCA and EEGF with two other WNISEF officers, Mark Iwashko and Lenna Koszarny. They also started a third firm, Horizon Capital Advisors, which “serves as a sub-advisor to the Investment Manager, HCA,” according to WNISEF’s IRS filing for 2006.

U.S. AID apparently found nothing suspicious about these tangled business relationships – and even allowed WNISEF to spend millions of dollars helping EEGF become a follow-on private investment firm – despite the potential conflicts of interest involving Jaresko, the other WNISEF officers and their affiliated companies. For instance, WNISEF’s 2012 annual report devoted two pages to “related party transactions,” including the management fees to Jaresko’s Horizon Capital ($1,037,603 in 2011 and $1,023,689 in 2012) and WNISEF’s co-investments in projects with the EEGF, where Jaresko was founding partner and chief executive officer. Jaresko’s Horizon Capital managed the investments of both WNISEF and EEGF.

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Interesting lawsuit.

Are the World’s Biggest Banks Moving Money for Terrorists? (Bloomberg)

Steven Vincent had just left a money exchange in the southern Iraqi city of Basra when a group of men in police uniforms drove up in a white truck and grabbed him and his translator. It was Aug. 2, 2005. Vincent, a freelance American journalist, had reported on the war for two-and-a-half years. British troops occupied Basra, but he operated without an embed arrangement. British and Iraqi authorities later found Vincent on the outskirts of the city shot dead. The Iraqi translator survived. Three days earlier the New York Times had published an op-ed article by Vincent, Switched Off in Basra, in which he described the infiltration of the local police by Iranian-backed Islamic extremists. Steven was executed for what he wrote, says his widow, Lisa Ramaci.

She’s set up a foundation in his name that donates money to the families of Iraqis injured or killed because of their work with U.S. journalists. And Ramaci did something else. In November she joined a lawsuit on behalf of relatives of U.S. soldiers and civilians who’ve died in Iraq as a result of violence linked to Iranian-backed militias and terrorist groups. The suit, filed in federal court in Brooklyn, seeks hundreds of millions of dollars not from death squads, whose members aren t likely to show up with lawyers in tow. Instead, it targets five of the largest banks in the world: HSBC, Credit Suisse, Barclays, Standard Chartered, and Royal Bank of Scotland. Defendants, the suit declares, committed acts of international terrorism. The suit, known as Freeman v. HSBC, takes its name from lead plaintiff Charlotte Freeman, whose husband, Brian, an Army captain, died in a Jan. 20, 2007, attack by Iranian-trained militants in Karbala, Iraq.

This far-fetched-seeming attempt to pin culpability for violent deaths on bankers relies on an intricate theory of causation: The European-based banks have handled hundreds of billions of dollars in international transfers for Iranian financial institutions. The Iranian financial institutions, in turn, have moved money for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite Iranian paramilitary organization, and for Hezbollah, the militant Shia movement based in Lebanon and backed by Iran. The Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah have trained and armed Shia groups in Iraq that have kidnapped, shot, and blown up Americans, including Vincent and Freeman. Can the global banking industry be held liable for the detonation of improvised explosive devices and destruction of lives? It may sound wild-eyed or quixotic, but that s what we re trying to do, says Gary Osen, the New Jersey lawyer who recruited the 230 plaintiffs for Freeman v. HSBC.

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Feb 142015
 
 February 14, 2015  Posted by at 9:38 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , ,  23 Responses »


Harris&Ewing National Capital digs out after storm Jan 14 1939

I’ve addressed the issue a hundred times, and it pains me to see it only gets worse. But it does. And it’s not my pain that counts, it has no meaning whatsoever, it’s the fact that we are inching ever closer to the kind of situations none of us would choose.

That is, war, people dying from sheer misery, people dying because they have no access to the services we take for granted, and even people being shelled by their own government.

All these things are happening as we speak, and we accept them lying down – on our couches -, and choose to ignore and even deny them, because we are trapped in narratives spun by those who see a profit in spreading these narratives. And who have a solid grip on what gets spun and what is not.

This is not going to end well. Not unless we speak up. Not for anyone amongst us. This one will not pass by your door, or mine. We’re approaching decision time. For the world, for your life and mine. It’s time to pick sides.

As I said, I’ve talked about this numerous times. I suggest you read for example 2014: The Year Propaganda Came Of Age. And then realize that the age of innocence is gone. That ‘I didn’t know’ no longer counts for anything. That ‘I’m just trying to make a living’ only goes so far. That your life is not only about you.

February 12 seems to have been a busy day. There had been a 16 hour – largely overnight – meeting in Minsk attended by Merkel, Hollande, Petroshenko and Putin. Why Putin was asked to attend – ostensibly representing the Donbass ‘rebels’ – is up for questioning, but he was there. The rebels themselves were not.

Not long after the cease-fire was announced, perhaps even prior to it, US Senator Jim Inhofe released photos, which he claimed prove Russian troops are in Ukraine. These were subsequently found to be fake. Like every other single ‘proof’ has been found wanting.

Think about that for a second, another second: it’s been a year since Maidan, since Yanukovich was chased out, and still not one piece of ‘evidence’ has been made to stick. Not one. While the US have the most advanced spy technology ever seen on the planet, it has not been able to produce one piece of information, for a whole year, to prove its assertions that Russia provides weapons to the ‘rebels’, sends soldiers to fight in the Donbass, or has anything to do with shooting down a plane. Not one single piece of evidence.

And then comes Inhofe. Who’s a bigwig, and whose claims may well sway Senate votes towards sending US arms to Kiev:

Inhofe Releases ‘Exclusive’ Deathly Images To Free Beacon That Are Not

Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) released photographs Thursday of what he says is confirmed Russian military action against Ukraine. He gave them “exclusively” to the Washington Free Beacon. Except there’s just one problem — some of the photographs given to WFB from the 80-year-old senator date back to 2008 from the AP and aren’t exclusive at all.

The photos are fake. Completely fake. Just like all the other evidence presented over the past year. There is nothing that proves any Russian involvement. And if there were anything, you bet your behind they would trump it all over Fox and CNN until the cows had come home and left again for greener pastures. The US is attempting to start a war out of nothing, and for nothing, just because a group of deluded people think they can, and need to, conquer the largest nation on earth for their own advantage.

At roughly the same time Senator Inhofe tried to peddle his fake pictures, Ukraine ultranationalist leader Dmitry Yarosh, of the Right Sector, proclaimed he wouldn’t honor the Minsk deal.

Ukraine Right Sector Leader Rejects Peace Deal, Vows ‘To Continue War’

Ukraine’s Right Sector leader Dmitry Yarosh said his radical movement rejects the Minsk peace deal and that their paramilitary units in eastern Ukraine will continue “active fighting” according to their “own plans.” The notorious ultranationalist leader published a statement on his Facebook page Friday, saying that his radical Right Sector movement doesn’t recognize the peace deal, signed by the so-called ‘contact group’ on Thursday and agreed upon by Ukraine, France, Germany and Russia after epic 16-hour talks. Yarosh claimed that any agreement with the eastern militia, whom he calls “terrorists,” has no legal force.

Not only did Yarosh, who now says he wants to keep on fighting, play a pivotal part in the Maidan movement,and was heavily supported by the US and EU, this same man who ignores the agreement his own president signed, is a member of the Ukraine Parliament. And he’s on Interpol’s wanted list too. Yarosh, an acknowledged neo nazi, fights on ‘our’ side, and if if people like John McCain get their way, he’ll soon be provided with heavy US armory.

Not to be outdone, NATO has this:

Nato Head Says Alliance Has Data On Russian Military Presence In Ukraine

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg claims that the intelligence service of the alliance has some documented data of Russian military presence in eastern Ukraine. Stoltenberg announced it on air of the Kommersant FM radio. According to Stoltenberg, the militias of eastern Ukraine wouldn’t have been able to achieve the success they are demonstrating without Russia’s support. He said that NATO receives data on Russian military presence in Ukraine from the intelligence services, journalists and other sources but presented no concrete facts.

Moscow has repeatedly denied alleged presence of Russian troops in eastern Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in late January that those accusing Russia of sending troops and weapons to the conflict-torn south-eastern Ukraine need to substantiate their accusations with proof. “We hear a lot about the flow of Russian troops and arms,” Lavrov said speaking at his annual news conference. “And every time I respond that if one speaks with such certainty, than one should present some facts. However, no one is either capable or willing to present the facts.”

Again, if they has any such data, it would be plastered over every news paper and every TV screen in the western world, and likely beyond. But, turns out, Stoltenberg is as reliable as Senator Inhofe and the rest of them are:

OSCE Chief Saw No Russian Troops In Ukraine’s East

Lamberto Zannier, secretary general of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), told a forum on OSCE’s project coordination in Ukraine he could not confirm the movement or the presence of Russian forces there…

To top off the madness, apparently yesterday, one day after the Minsk cease-fire accord, the EU announced new anti-Russian sanctions for Monday:

New Anti-Russia Sanctions to Enter Into Force Monday

Maja Kocijancic, European Commission’s spokesperson for foreign affairs, confirmed Friday that the EU will add 19 individuals, including five Russians, and nine entities to the list of sanctions over Ukraine on February 16. The statement was made a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin, together with the leaders of Germany, France and Ukraine, brokered a new deal on the crisis reconciliation in Minsk. “The political decision of additional listings has been taken on January 29. The [EU] Foreign Affairs Council on Monday adopted a legal act so it made it fulfilled this political commitment and has set to give the diplomatic efforts a chance that entering into force will happen on February 16, which is this coming Monday,” Kocijancic said.

The European Union, the United States and other countries have imposed several rounds of sanctions against Russia over its alleged role in the Ukrainian conflict. The restrictions target the country’s defense, energy and finance sectors, as well as a number of individuals. Moscow has repeatedly stressed that it is not militarily involved in Ukraine’s internal affairs. Following the Minsk talks, EU leaders convened for an informal meeting but a new-wave of anti-Russia sanctions was not on the agenda, European Council President Donald Tusk announced. Meanwhile European leaders agreed that the implementation of Thursday’s deal will become a touchstone for further relations with Russia.

That doesn’t make any sense at all, to declare new sanctions when you’ve just signed a deal. That smacks of less than honorable intentions.

Ultra right wing military hothead Yarosh, honorable member of the Ukraine parliament, states he will not abide by what his own superior signed, while the ink he signed it with was still fresh. Which means the Kiev government, and by extension the US and EU, can claim it wasn’t them who violated the accord, but it will be violated regardless. And then when the rebels, alternatively labeled pro-Russian or Russian-led, defend themselves against the Right Sector, the west will have its narrative to declare war on Russia.

And that will not turn out well for us, for you and me. There’s nothing there that will benefit us. The lives of our children will be sacrificed on the altar of a few handfuls of crazed psychopaths. Unless we stop them. It would seem there’s not much time left.

Feb 102015
 
 February 10, 2015  Posted by at 11:06 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , ,  17 Responses »


Dorothea Lange American River camp, Sacramento, CA. Destitute family. 1936

I don’t know about you, but I’m having a ball reading up on the preparations for the Wednesday/Thursday talks between Greece and .. well, everybody else. German FinMin Schäuble proudly declares that it’s do what I tell you or you’re finished, Greek FinMin Varoufakis says prepare for a clash. Greek advisors Lazard say a $100 billion debt reduction sounds reasonable, and some anonymous EU official says Lazard are incompetent and counterproductive (not smart, that).

When will the Brussels luxury cubicles understand that the Greek people have voted down their approach fair and square? That they voted down the government that made deals with the Troika for the very and explicit reason that they made those deals in the first place, and that telling the newly elected government to stick by those deals regardless is a corruption of democracy? So far, all the EU has (anyone notice how silent the IMF has been?) is hubris, bluster and chest-thumping.

They play politicians, but Syriza plays real life. Tsipras and Varoufakis stand up for real people, while Schäuble and Dijsselbloem and their ilk stand up only for themselves. And then pretend, in front of their bathroom mirrors and the news cameras, that they protect their own people against the greedy Greeks. As for the 50%+ of young Greeks who have no future, or the countless elderly who go without basic health care, too bad and boo hoo hoo.

The European Union is no Salvation Army, after all. In Europe, everybody takes care of their own, not the others. It’s a union in name only. That’s why Germany, France, Holland bailed out their own banks after these lost big on wagers in Athens, and want the Greek people to pay for those bailouts – at least the union was good for that -.

Claiming the Greeks all borrowed so much and lived it up way beyond their stature, while in reality people are dying who could be saved with simple treatments still easily available in Berlin, Paris and Amsterdam. Greece, make no mistake, has become the third world, whether your atlas confirms it or not.

Their MO is that banks are more important than people, Germany is more important than Greece, and the Greek people are less important than the great EU project that – and they actually still believe this- will make everybody richer. Only, to Tsipras the Greek people are more important. And so the new Greek leader’s partners in the European Union threaten to make things even worse than they already are.

It’s not just hubris and bluster, it’s pure impotence. If the talks this week don’t provide a solution, or a realistic proposal for one, Greece will be very close to leaving the eurozone. Syriza will not agree to continue with the deals the Samaras technocrats have agreed with the Troika, for the simple reason that their voters have trusted them with the mission to throw out those deals. Otherwise, they might as well have stayed with Samaras, and the elections would have no meaning.

Brussels and Berlin – and Paris and Amsterdam – have such trouble understanding what democracy means, they prefer to ignore it. But it was them who saddled their own voters with the debt which results from wagers on Greece gone awry, it wasn’t the Greek population. The entire western world has elected to not restructure the debt of its banking system. And don’t be confused, that’s not an economic choice, it’s a political one.

A lot more money has been thrown at maintaining the banking system, hopelessly bankrupt as it is no matter what, than would have been needed to guarantee the bank accounts of all citizens and all small businesses. Now the banks are still there, and so is their debt, but the people are sinking into an endlessly dark pool. Not an economic choice, a political one.

What we will see envelop this week is a game in which accusations will grow ever more wild and grotesque, but also a game in which Greece in the end will not do what everyone still seems to expect it to do. Because that would require for Syriza to betray the people who voted for them. Not going to happen.

The underlying – but we’re way past that by now – problem was explained quite well by UofMaryland professor Peter Morici:

Greek Revolt Over Austerity Is Long Overdue

Europe has few of the mechanisms that facilitate adjustment in the United States, which has a single currency across a similarly wide range of competitive circumstances. A single language permits workers to go where the jobs are, whereas most Greeks and Italians are stuck where they are born. New Yorkers’ taxes subsidize public works, health care and the like in Mississippi through the federal government in ways the European Commission cannot accomplish.

Germany uses its size and influence to resist changes in EU institutions that could alter fiscal arrangements. Hence, the Greeks and other southern Europeans were forced to borrow heavily from private lenders in the north – mostly through their commercial banks – to provide public services, health care and similar services that were hardly overly generous when measured by German standards.

All this kept German factories humming and German unemployment low. When the financial crisis and meltdown of global banking made private borrowing no longer viable, Greece and other southern states were forced to seek loans directly from Germany and other northern governments. Bailouts implemented by Germany through the ECB, the IMF and the European Commission required labor market reforms, cuts in wages and pensions, higher taxes, and less government spending. All to restore Greek competitiveness, growth and solvency – and all have absolutely failed.

The eurozone is by design and of necessity a predatory ‘union’. The US would be too, to an even greater extent than it is today, if it didn’t have a transfer of federal tax revenue from New York to Nowhere, Nebraska. And it wouldn’t be a union anymore.

So you know, for me, I’m fine with Greece blowing it up. There’s nothing good left from the initial idea that gave birth to the EU. It’s devolved into something utterly ugly, in which fat Germans driving their Mercs and Beamers down the autobahn can yell at their car stereos that those lazy Greeks must pay their due. Which stems from Merkel et al bailing out Deutsche Bank’s insanely outsized derivatives portfolios.

The whole thing is so morally bankrupt, it’s really insane that we’re still trying to have a serious discussion about it. The whole thing, the entire global banking system, is as morally bankrupt as it is financially. And we keep on believing that it matters what Berlin tells Athens to do. Our best hope is that Varoufakis refuses to be told what to do. It’s not as if we did anything about it, after all. We let others do our jobs and watch them do it on TV.

Here’s a prediction for you: the eurozone is ‘past its half-life’, or more correctly, it has over 50% of its existence behind it. It won’t last another 15 years. And perhaps much less than that. And I’m seriously thinking about moving to Greece. Just to experience sanity.

PS: A quantity is subject to exponential decay if it decreases at a rate proportional to its current value.

Feb 032015
 
 February 3, 2015  Posted by at 12:06 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , ,  9 Responses »


Harris&Ewing House-Capitol tunnel, Washington, DC Feb 3 1939

It’s all still about Greece, and that makes sense, if nothing else Syriza is a breath if not a tornado of fresh air. But those too pass. The question at the end remains: did anything really change? It’s quite possible, don’t get me wrong, but Tsipras and Vanoufakis are busy looking out for the people who voted for them, not the rest of the Europe, or the world for that matter. And neither should they.

They’ve already gotten good response from Obama, from France and Britain, and if only for that reason they will get more. But you have to understand what they are trying to do: getting a better life for their own people, and that’s hard enough all by itself. The best they can do for now, hopefully, is that. But Greece is merely a symptom of something bigger and deeper that is going wrong.

There’s an ideological battle happening between money and wellbeing, between people and banks. Western leaders have so far chosen to protect money and banks, instead of people and their wellbeing, and that’s why we find ourselves where we do. Choosing money before people can only end in the demise of the system that makes such a choice. That, however, is apparently terribly hard to comprehend.

And that got Greece where it is. That’s why Europe set up a ‘union’ that shares a currency but that has no provisions to transfer funds from – even temporarily – weak regions from stronger ones. Even the US has that, or it would have imploded long ago. It’s the kind of thing that makes you wonder if maybe the EU wasn’t set up from the start so Germany could exploit the Mediterranean.

But even that is not the core issue. It’s money over people that is. And Brussels should not just be ashamed for what they’ve done to Greece, they should be driven out of town with tar and feathers. That’s not how they see it, though. Brussels, in the voice of Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem, when he met with new Greek FinMin Varoufakis, had the audacity – and stupidity, his job is up for grabs – to point out that much progress had been made. As the troika demands have turned Greece into a third world nation. That’s known as progress.

If you think about it, it’s not much different from how US policies have turned Detroit, and many other places, into semi-hellholes. It’s fine if there’s a difference between West Virginia and the Hamptons, it’s just about how big that difference gets.

It all comes down to a system that is failing spectacularly. Failing, that is, even if it’s intentional: there are plenty Darwinists and neo-liberals who would swear the poor only get what they deserve. Just as Brussels apparently saw the Greeks: let ’em bleed, let ’em suffer, let ’em die, it’s only because they borrowed too much.

I can’t seem to figure out the logic there: if they borrowed so much, why are they unemployed and miserable and without health care? The answer to that of course is that they didn’t, it’s 90%+ money that flowed into western banks to make up for their gambling losses. It should by now be a non-issue, because it’s so glaringly obvious, but the narrative is strong.

This is not about Greece, this is about ideology, about economics as a belief system, a system so blind it sacrifices real people and proclaims that is a good thing: ‘much progress had been made’. Some people are saying: you need to help these people who end up on the wrong side of the economic tracks, while others invoke Darwin.

But you need to ask how they got where they are, or you’ll never solve the issue, you’ll just need up murdering people. And whether they deserve it or not, murder is not legal, Mr. Dijsselbloem. And neither is using your job to put people into misery, not even if your economic beliefs say that’s alright.

In the US, a lot of people complain about how the country has turned into a socialist bastion. And even taking into account that the word has a very different connotation stateside than it does in Europe and other parts of the world, it’s simply not correct, it doesn’t fit.

The US, like western Europe, is in the midst of a massive failure of its brand of capitalism. There are no free markets, no price discovery, there are asset bubbles being blown with money that belongs to our grandchildren as people are thrown into despair, while others attain unparalleled riches, and the whole grossly distorted movie is fed to everyone by a well-oiled spin machine.

Yes, 40 million Americans are on food stamps, 100 million are not even officially in the labor force, and perhaps as much as most Americans are receiving some sort of government assistance, but that doesn’t make it socialism. It makes it a failed capitalist system. Socialism is supposed to be about a society that cares, and that’s not what those US government handouts are about. They’re about keeping people quiet in a failed system.

Europe understands the ‘caring society’ definition of socialism much better. Or it used to. Now it has to face the ‘New Greeks’, elected to stand up against a Europe that does not care one bit. That only wants Greece to obey its budget and bailout rules, over the bodies of its own people. The Greeks have democratically voted not to take that anymore.

Can you imagine what would happen in the US if the government pay-outs were halted? If there were no more foodstamps? The epic failure of the economic system would come to light in too many ways to mention. But one thing’s for sure, it would create one big mess of chaos and unrest that would sweep across the streets of the country like a tidal wave.

Nothing to do with socialism, that’s a political ideology, like capitalism is. There’s not much between them, once you put people first in either.

Still, for now, we all live in a failed economic system, and we refuse to admit it, edged on by our self-serving leaders and media. But how is it not obvious? It is in Greece, after all.

Jan 072015
 
 January 7, 2015  Posted by at 8:00 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , ,  11 Responses »

French magazine Charlie Hebdo’s website now shows the image above. In French, Je Suis Charlie doesn’t only translate as I Am Charlie, but also as I Follow Charlie. Let’s. And let’s not allow the US and all the other western governments to blemish the memories of those who were killed today by using their deaths to promote empty slogans about liberty. Because that’s not what Charlie Hebdo stood for, empty slogans.

There’s a long-running gag in the Anglo world that claims French people are not very courageous. We can now once and forever erase that claim. The people who were shot and killed today were exceptionally brave. Of course the comparison with the North Korea/Sony hack situation will be made, but it really shouldn’t. It would take away way too much from the staff at Charlie Hebdo, and add way too much undeserved praise to Seth Rogen, Sony and Obama.

One thing is now sure: you can pencil in Marine Le Pen as the next president of France. And I doubt she’ll wait till 2017, when François Hollande’s term is up. Hollande looks done. That means the testosterone suffering idiots who shot two dozen people in the center of Paris today will end up making the lives of Muslims in France a lot harder. Be careful what you wish for. And no, they haven’t avenged any prophet either. No prophet worth his/her stature can be wounded by a cartoon.

The men and women at Charlie Hebdo would have been the first to take the side of French Muslims, and undoubtedly have done so on many occasions. They stood up against any sort of hubris, of which there happens to be a lot in France. A certain interpretation of Islam was just one of many things.

Now the French people, including the Muslim population, are short a whole editorial staff full of people who believed in the idea of fighting anything that’s just plain stupid. And, don’t let’s forget, had the courage to do to engage in that fight. Religion was but a small part of that. In terms of American comedy, I guess you’d have to think along the lines of Lenny Bruce or George Carlin.

There are between 5 and 7 million Muslims living in France, perhaps some 10% of the population (in the US, it’s less than 1%). There is a long history of Muslims living in the country. But if you’ve ever been to Paris, and seen the banlieues, the slumps, you know how these people are still being treated. France, as I said, is a country full of hubris, hiding under banners like ‘tradition’. That’s where France has been wrong for many decades now, and the price will be paid for that. You can’t create ghettos and expect to be just left alone forever to enjoy yet another good vintage.

The French political class are all, left or right, educated at the same handful of schools. Just like they are in the US and Britain. They know nothing about ghettos, and they don’t care. They just want to play their little games and enjoy the attention and the money that come with the job.

But even more than the ignorance and hubris of the French themselves, things like the attack today are the result of US-induced and executed politics in the Middle East and North Africa over the past decades -at least -, politics today forced upon allies through such organizations, way past their best before date, like NATO and the IMF. And the EU.

There are many reasons why the EU should cease to exist, and ironically today’s bloodshed will bring its end closer, since Marine Le Pen wants nothing to do with it. What’s more important, though, is that the increasing centralization of power in Brussels takes away from that in Paris and Berlin. There is now one voice that speaks for Europe when it comes to international politics, and it’s fully dictated by Washington.

We’ve seen where that can lead last year in Ukraine. The diplomatic relationships that historically existed, and took many years to build, between separate European nations and the ‘outside world’, for instance between Germany and Russia, or France and North Africa, don’t mean much anymore now that Brussels determines diplomacy – and the lack thereof -, and simply parrots the US.

That is an unintended consequence of establishing the already horribly failed pan-European model that we will all pay for dearly. What happened in Paris is just the beginning. These diplomatic channels still exist today, but before long the people who are pivotal to maintaining them will be gone.

Then it will be just Brussels talking to Putin, and to Assad, and all these other people who we don’t have to fight as long as we keep talking to them, and point to what our ancestors on both sides said and did in days of old. Brussels and Washington today stand for a scorched earth strategy in diplomacy, and that does not bode well. France wouldn’t have instigated the current Russian sanctions, nor would Germany; they would have used their long-established and cherished diplomatic channels. These are now going to waste. A very scary development indeed. It’s like the whole world is losing an entire dimension.

Perhaps we should feel fortunate that this is not the only reason to blow up – figuratively speaking – Brussels. Obviously, the Greek elections in 18 days are on many people’s minds when it comes to threats to Brussels, but it’s certainly not the only one. Two separate Bloomberg headlines today make that clear:

German Unemployment Falls to Record Low on Strengthening Economic Recovery

German unemployment fell for a third month in December to a record low, signaling that growth in Europe’s largest economy will accelerate in 2015. The number of people out of work fell a seasonally adjusted 27,000 to 2.841 million in December, the Federal Labor Agency in Nuremberg said today. The adjusted jobless rate dropped to 6.5%, the lowest level in records going back more than two decades.

The rest of the article is just a whole load of nonsense, hubris and whale blubber. But then you contrast it with this:

Italy Jobless Rate Rises to Record Amid Growth Outlook Concerns

Italy’s unemployment rate increased more than forecast to a new high of 13.4% in November as companies failed to hire on concern the country’s longest recession on record isn’t about to end. The jobless rate rose from a revised 13.3% in October, the Rome-based national statistics office Istat said in a preliminary report today. The November reading is the highest since the quarterly series began in 1977.

It doesn’t need much explaining, does it? Europe’s north continues to squeeze its south, and there’s no end in sight. The eurozone as a whole fell into deflation in December, the first time since September 2009, even if the media don’t call it that. Where is this going to end? There’s only one answer, isn’t there? If the European economy doesn’t magically recover, the north will – continue to – save its economies by strangling the south. With France squeezed in an unenviable position somewhere in between. That’s not going anywhere good.

So what to do? First, the EU needs to be dismantled, starting with the eurozone. European countries can work wonderfully together as long as they can make their own economic and fiscal decisions, without having their monetary policies – increasingly – dictated by a Brussels politburo. There are far too many people operating in Brussels who can’t be held accountable for their actions, as there are in Washington. Never a good thing.

Then, France has to treat it Muslims better. All European countries need to. And they need to treat their relationships with Muslim countries better. If you want Muslims to stay where they are, instead of coming to Europe, something many people clamor for, give them the tools to do that with. Give them a future in Iraq, Syria, Algeria, Libya.

The first step towards achieving that is to tell the US to stop interfering in all these countries, or at least to stop supporting its actions (dismantle NATO as well as the EU). And to let France use its ties with that part of the world to a mutual benefit, and for Germany, Italy, Britain to do the same.

It’s frankly sickening to see all these leaders, the American and British ones loudest of all, use today’s attack to once again promote their empty messages about liberty and freedom, over the dead bodies of a group of people who certainly wouldn’t have liked them doing that.

There are far too many people in the world who only have been granted – by us – the liberty to be dirt poor, to be shot by drones, and to have their resources exploited by western businesses and governments and their local cronies, without ever seeing a penny in return.

That is not how you build a peaceful world. The guys who shot Charlie Hedbo to bits today are just banal idiots, but they didn’t come from nowhere. We in the west have built our wealth on the suppression of other people, and on taking their resources away without paying anything near a fair price. It’s known as colonialism, and it is really not that complicated a model. It takes but a few seconds to understand.

Dec 102014
 
 December 10, 2014  Posted by at 10:03 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , ,  7 Responses »


Christopher Helin Fisk Service garage, San Francisco 1934

Interesting – if not outrageous – remarks today from Steen Jakobsen at Saxo Bank in Denmark, always good for some fresh insights, and a statement from him that I would like to decorate with a few question marks. As WTI oil looks threatening to break through $60 a barrel with another 5% loss today, let’s first take a look at Saxo’s, and hence Steen’s, Outrageous Predictions, via Tyler Durden. We can take it from there.

Saxobank’s 10 Outrageous Predictions For 2015 – A Reckoning’s Coming

Low volatility has given investors a false sense of security that could lead to the biggest upset in 2015. Central bankers meanwhile have become the generals in an economic war in which the final tool in the box – competitive currency devaluations – merely exports problems overseas. Nowhere exemplifies this better than Japan after the latest bazooka launch by Shinzo Abe threatens to become an out-of-control, inflation-stoking missile. Japan may have bought the global markets a further quarter or two of protection but the real world will have its say.

We saw it for one week of mayhem in October. If that’s anything to go by, we are in for a rollercoaster ride in 2015. Tangible assets and production sit at all-time lows. Paper money investment has crowded out productive capital while societies are dominated by hairdressers and bankers. We’re losing the art of manufacturing. Meanwhile the power of the US of A is waning as China rises and when the superpower pecking order changes, volatility and war ensue.

Nothing is ever given and Outrageous Predictions remains an exercise in finding ten relatively controversial and unrelated ideas which could turn your investment world upside. And we at Saxo Bank remain convinced higher volatility and a potential move towards a mandate for change is upon us as macro thinking enters a final fight to the death before we can again put our faith in people, ideas, education and change rather than hollow promises. 2015 will be a tough year but potentially also the year we look back at as the nadir.

That’s the intro, now let’s get to the predictions themselves, and I’ll give my version.

10 Outrageous Predictions…

• Russia defaults again

Possible, but I wouldn’t want to rule out Russia’s preparedness for what is happening today. They’ve seen the neocons coming from miles away, and they surely have considered today’s reality in their planning. But, again, a default is possible. If Putin thinks it’s a smart thing to do.

• Volcano eruption decimates crops

That’s not really a prediction, it’s more of a crazy wager made at 11.59 pm on New Year’s Eve after a few bottles of bubbly.

• Japanese inflation to hit 5%

That would not only mean a great success for Abe, Kuroda and Abenomics (which has been an abject failure to date), it would also mean they find a way to get the Japanese people to start spending like a bunch of Jewish American Princesses, and I really can’t see that. So a no for me.

• Draghi quits ECB

Absolutely. Draghi is stuck between desperate spend spend spend forces on the one side and the Germans on the other. It’s clear he would love to do the former’s bidding, but the Germans really don’t want anything to do with it, and that’s not because they’re traumatized over what happened 80 years ago in Weimar, a silly argument thrown around far too easily. They simply don’t believe in letting debt take over an economy and hold it hostage, which is what the rest of the world is doing.

Interesting question is who’ll succeed the future Italian president. Another Goldmanite like Mario would appear useless, it would just lead to another case of being stuck in a Mexican stand-off. So a more Berlin-friendly chair? Germans have no room to move, if they go for broad asset purchases, they’d be voted out of office and voted down by their domestic court system.

My guess would be that if and when Mario leaves, the EU has a big problem, because a replacement that everyone can agree on will be hard to find, And that in turn may be a danger to the union itself. Which it should be too. It’s an unholy union between partners that are far too far apart from each other.

• Corporate bond spreads to double in 2015

Entirely possible. What’s happening today with oil is already affecting other commodities, and will spread to stocks sooner rather than later. Bonds can’t be far behind, be they sovereign, corporate or just plain junk. Wash out, bloodbath, pick your favorite term.

• Internet hacks smash online shopping

Perhaps. Hackers seem to be more focused on ‘loftier’ goals for now, but who knows? Who knows where the main hacker communities are located in the world to begin with?

• China devalues yuan 20%

I’m guessing Saxo means a deliberate move here, as in an announced one. And I’m not sure they’d need that. They can do it by stealth. It matters of course whether you mean devaluation vs the USD, or another currency. They probably mean the USD, and then it’s not so hard. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the euro loses another 20% vs the USD in 2015, the yen seems a given, so why not the yuan? Lots of dollars will be looking for a way ‘home’. The question becomes: can the Fed still drive the dollar down?

• Cocoa futures hit USD 5,000/tonne

Now I’m outta my league. I’ll have to pass. I do know, of course, that chocolate has been threatened for a while, but that’s the extent of my ‘expertise’.

• UK house sector to crash

Along with quite a few others. Central banks have focused on housing in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the US itself, and all these markets are facing a lot of pressure. The UK may be even crazier than all the rest, London surpassed Hong Kong as the most expensive city only recently. Which is where my thoughts turn to all the Londoners who’ve been chased out of their own city by the insane dreams of Cameron and Boris Johnson. They are the ones who should be chased out.

• Brexit in 2017

That’s not really a 2015 prediction, is it? But, you know what, let’s make it a broader issue: I bet you there’s going to be a lot more pressure, from multiple sides, on the European unity. Which is good: Brussels is a power game gone horribly wrong over the backs of nice, sweet, decent ordinary people all across the ill-fated ‘union’.

And we’re not done yet. Steen Jakobsen also did an interview at CNBC, in which he has an 11th prediction, namely that the US might bail out its energy sector. I find that curious, because I’ve said a few times recently that I don’t think that’s going to happen. But first, Steen:

Steen Jakobsen: The US Could Bail Out Its Own Oil Sector (CNBC)

An economist who correctly predicted the fall in oil price this year has told CNBC that the U.S. government could look to bail out its energy sector in 2015 as the commodity’s low price starts hitting the country’s economy. “The U.S. energy sector is clearly important,” Steen Jakobsen, the chief economist at Danish investment bank Saxo Bank, told CNBC Wednesday. “They are paramount to the long-term strategic issue that the U.S. will be self-dependent on oil.”

[..]Jakobsen believes the [US energy] headwind could soon become a tailwind despite gas becoming cheaper at the pump for U.S. citizens. “It will subtract 0.5% from GDP, bare minimum,” he said. “There’s a precedent here, back in the 80s we also had an oil crisis and that led to bank recoveries.” He added that oil companies are in for a “massive correction,” similar to the downtrend seen in mining stocks, explaining that exploration was getting “hugely expensive” with energy majors having little free cash flow available. The S&P 500 index has clocked gains of around 11% so far this year but the energy sector within the benchmark is currently down nearly 12%.

One of Jakobsen’s “outrageous” predictions this time last year was for the commodity to drop below $80 per barrel which was achieved in November with oil now trading at around $65. BP sounded the alarm on Wednesday morning by saying that it is implementing a cost-cutting program due to the tumbling prices. Any potential bailout for the sector, or even the banks that lend to them, would prove vastly unpopular in the U.S.

Dennis Gartman, commodities investor and editor of The Gartman Letter, told CNBC that any bailout is simply inconceivable “We bailed the banks out and the public’s anger has been very real and very long standing,” [..] “Bailing out the oil companies would be even more seriously hated.”

BNP Paribas’ Global Head of Commodity Strategy, Harry Tchilinguirian, was equally in incredulous at the possibility of the U.S. government stepping in. “In the event that oil prices fall further into 2016 and hurt smaller un-hedged independent operators as their free cash flow declines and their ability to raise finance is curbed, it is possible to see closures or consolidation in the sector,” “But is this reason enough for the government to intervene?” Christian Schulz, the senior economist at Berenberg Bank, agreed that U.S. oil producers, and their lenders, could get into trouble if lower oil prices remain but said they are not “systemically important enough” to be bailed out by the government.

I don’t think public anger would be the major issue, and I also don’t think the industry is not “systemically important enough” (that seems a bit ignorant even for a ‘senior economist’, the entire edifice runs on oil).

I think the problem, the reason why America cannot bail out its oil industry, at least not overtly, lies elsewhere. Bailing out the US housing industry is one – expensive – thing. Bailing out Wall Street banks is another – closely related, and infinitely more expensive – , but still close. The latter involved bailing out foreign banks, but they’re still primary dealers, or in other words, part of the ‘family’.

Oil is a whole different piece of cake. The Fed or Treasury could try and lower exploration costs, or something in that vein, but in the end the only measure that would be really effective is raising revenue, and that can only be accomplished with higher prices. And since oil prices are set globally. that in turn means that bailing out US oil also means bailing out Russian, Libyan, Venezuelan oil. And that would be hard to defend in today’s American political climate, helping Putin and Maduro get back on their feet.

It’s of course a ‘curious conundrum’, to find that by helping your own you also help your ‘enemy’. But it is, from where I’m sitting, a very real issue when it comes to oil. On top of that, there’s of course the fact that the US shale oil industry is already falling to leveraged bits, and has never been a viable industry, just a land speculation Ponzi. And how or why could the US bail out that kind of scheme out, and at the same time, don’t let’s forget, save the whole financial world from the fall-out of what’s happening to oil? What to do when that plunge starts to infect stocks and bonds, which seems an inevitable next step?

I am of course ready to stand corrected, but I simply don’t see what Steen Jakobsen suggests. Oil is too shattered an industry within the US, and also, though in a different way, globally, to be bailed out and saved by the Fed’s bell.

Nov 092014
 
 November 9, 2014  Posted by at 7:56 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , ,  10 Responses »


Wyland Stanley Peerless touring car, Bay Area 1923

As I was writing The Broken Model Of The Eurozone yesterday, I already knew there would have to be a sequel, because doing everything in one go would have been too much. And then, considerably less than two seconds later, it dawned on me that if I wanted to cover broken models and systems, a book would be the very least. But I don’t want to write a book, or, certainly, not here and now. Therefore, the best I think I can do is to sit down and let it flow, train of thought, stream of consciousness, probably the approach that suits me best to begin with.

There’s no question that the eurozone is by no means the only broken model, design, system, structure, in our world, though its built-in fatal flaws are perhaps easier to pinpoint than they are in other models. Everyone can see why having no mechanism to keep poor member nations from getting poorer must of necessity doom the eurozone, and the euro. Everyone, that is, but the people with the most vested interests.

That said, when you get to think about it, it’s hard to find a model, a system, in our ‘modern’ societies that is not broken, through similar design flaws. Just the past few days, we had the US midterm elections, and it doesn’t come more broken than that. As Ron Paul stated once again, US politics is a monopoly system, not a democracy. That part exists only in people’s dreams and in media stories. In reality, it’s pick your favorite identical twin. Yet for some reason, people still vote. Go figure.

Then there was the BLS unemployment report, which is no longer even a joke, but such an outright insult to Americans that it’s difficult to see why anyone looks at it anymore, other than for propagandistic reasons. A model designed to ignore the combined erosion in labor participation, wages and benefits that has taken place in the US since 2007, and the number of people who can’t make enough to pay their bills and feed their kids, is useless as a gauge for the American economy.

What these, and just about any other model I can think of that we use to run our world, have in common, is/are a number of flaws:

First, they were designed to operate exclusively in growing economies. Perhaps not even on purpose, but they sure don’t function in less glorious days, if only because no provisions were made for such days. It’s at least one reason why protagonists are so eager to point to growth even where there is none.

Second, whether in days of growth or of non-growth, they offer no protection from destructive exploitation of the natural world, either by nations, by corporations or by ourselves. A self defeating model.

Third, they are so far removed from the ‘human scale’ that we can’t internalize the ways they work and don’t work, other than perhaps in abstract theory. We can’t understand how the systems work that govern our lives, and therefore not why they fail.

These three characteristics guarantee inherent self limitation, self defeat and eventual self destruction. Sort of like the spy message that destroys itself 10 seconds after being read.

I was reading John Michael Greer’s recent Dark Age America: The End of the Market Economy, in which he reiterates how an increase in complexity of a society means ever more intermediaries take position in between productive economic participants, skimming off the fruits of other people’s daily labor. And how a decrease in complexity, such as the one we’re seeing today in our world, forced by diminishing economic returns, will lead to those intermediary positions disappearing, and a renewed form of feudalism taking the helm.

There are many shapes and sizes of these intermediaries active in our present societies, but none are more powerful, in more than one way, than politicians and traders/investors. The political world and financial world don’t produce anything of value, they owe their wealth and power solely to others who do.

The past century – or two – of ultra cheap fuels, which have enabled one single human being to produce as much as a thousand of her ancestors, created the space in which the financial and political intermediate powerholders operate. The debt machine gone haywire of the last few decades either created even more of that space or made up for what was lost due to rising fuel prices. Both fossil fuels and debt now stumble on their last legs, and society will need to be remolded, along principles that may indeed well resemble feudalism more than anything else.

To be sure, Greer doesn’t define feudalism along the lines of the bad rap it has gotten, but simply as a system in which rights and obligations for both lords and servant are clearly defined.

What he doesn’t specify, but I will, is that the feudal model operates on a human scale. That points to another aspect: the servant – for lack of a better word – in a balanced feudal system knows his master. We, today, do not. We only know a bunch of people pushed forward for their gift of gab and telegenic faces. The way our leaders are (pre-) selected is not much different from seeing how many second hand cars or tupperware bowls they can sell on a TV sales channel.

But then those leaders are (s)elected to head entities so far beyond the human scale it should be obvious to anyone that they cannot function properly no matter how much growth there is. Leaders of entities like the US, the EU or China have little in common with the people they supposedly represent, and they don’t have to, nobody expects them to. The US midterms were mostly a a battle of the bulge, as in candidates’ bulging wallets.

And on top large scale national politics we have created yet another, even more anonymous layer of power. UN, World Bank, IMF, NATO, there’s an ever growing collection of supra-national organizations that keep on guzzling up more power and more money every single day.

Like ‘smaller’ entities such as the US and EU, only more, the supra-nationals attract a certain kind of people, those that like to assert power without being held directly accountable. In structures that far exceed the human scale, they are like fish in water. And that’s why we should never accept having them in those positions. IMF and World Bank have a history of at best disputable and at worst very bloody interventions in nations across the globe.

We should have today celebrated the end of NATO along with that of the Berlin Wall 25 years ago. But it’s still there, and playing an active role in the flaring up of the Ukraine civil war. As for the UN, there should be a place for an organization like it, but not with the money gobbling corporate structure, serving shady interests, that it has today.

Our political systems don’t work. Our economic systems don’t work. We live on a steady – but hardly nutritious – diet of debt and propaganda. Our societies are no longer productive enough to allow for the numbers of intermediaries they have given birth to. But it’s the intermediaries who have more often than not taken up the most powerful positions in our societies. So they will fight, and initially often successfully, to keep their positions, at the cost of the more productive segments. It’s a mechanism that’s much easier to understand than it is to fight.

I tend to think that it’s easier to make the effort to get rid of things like models and systems and structures when you know they will need to go soon anyway. But that’s without counting in propaganda. Without including Freud and spin doctors and Edward Bernays and why detergent commercials work so well. When you do take all those into account, things don’t look so easy anymore.

What the EU has in common with all present day political and financial structures, bar none, is that it can, and indeed was built to, function only in times of growth. Take away growth and inherent flaws become exposed. Take away growth and panic ensues. Well, we no longer have growth, other than in our dreams and spin.

Or more accurately, there is indeed one thing that does still grow: our debt. It’s all we have left to keep up the pretense that we’re still growing. That and a pack of lies that grows more outrageous as time goes by. We run our societies on debt and propaganda. To a large extent, propaganda about why and how debt, and more debt, can’t hurt us.

Because as long as we believe that, we’ll leave our political and financial structures and power holders keep their plush seats. And as long as we believe it, they’re free to take more and more away from us. Something we feel powerless to stop, because we’re scared of what may happen when we stop believing. In broken models.

Nov 032014
 
 November 3, 2014  Posted by at 10:51 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  5 Responses »


NPC US Geological Survey fire, F Street NW, Washington DC May 18 1913

I can do this in just about random order, the idea should still shine through, and crystal clear at that. We’re on the verge not of a market correction, but of something much bigger. All it takes to know that is to connect a few dots. Ironically, the very same financial press that reports on the dots, refuses to connect them. Don’t they see it, or don’t they want to? It’s not even a very interesting question anymore: they’ll end up commenting only in hindsight.

What happens today in Japan is both a sign of what’s wrong with the entire global financial system, and at the same time the catalyst that will help bring that system to its knees. Japan goes where no man has gone before, because it’s further down the gutter than the rest. But they will all follow. Japan thinks it can escape collapse if the US does fine, and vice versa, and the same goes for China, Europe etc., but none of them can survive the big blow by themselves, let alone that one of them could lift any of the others up by the hair on their heads. It’s a desperate mirage. When you hear anyone say the US will lift up the world economy, switch your channel. Unless you’re already at Comedy Central.

Here’s the litany for the day: China prints $25 trillion and buys Portugal. Japan’s national debt is 750% of tax revenue. US first time homebuyers are at a 27 year low. 40.5% of Greek children grow up in poverty, as Greece is part of the eurozone that should take care of all citizens. In the UK 72% of 18-21-year olds make less than a living wage. US and Japanese QE leads to ‘consumers’ spending less, which is the exact opposite of what QE is supposed to be intended for. China is trapped in the newfangled currency war Japan’s QE has unleashed across Asia, and which will soon be exported across the globe.

The common denominator? Debt. Sovereign debt, personal debt, corporate debt. Japan doesn’t want to recognize it yet, but it’s caught in the same trap with everyone. The difference is that Japan fights debt with more debt, while other parties are starting to find a little more nuance in their approach. Does it matter? Not one bit. Other than Japan’s hole will be deeper than the others. Let’s just track through today’s news. Bloomberg:

Portugal Sees Chinese Do 90% of Bids at Property Auction

As bargain-hunters waited in a packed room at a property auction in Lisbon last month, one language dominated their chat: Mandarin. About 90% of the bidders for the government-owned apartments and stores on offer were Chinese, according to Jorge Oliveira, the official overseeing the asset sale. They ended up acquiring more than two-thirds of the 45 properties, he said. “A Portuguese investor bought a store to start a bakery and coffee shop, but most of the properties went to the Chinese,” Oliveira said in an interview after the sale. Portugal is the latest target for Chinese investors who have been acquiring buildings around the world as China allows freer movement of funds in and out of the country.

Why would you want to sell your assets to a country that simply prints the money it uses to purchase those assets? Why not print that kind of money yourself and buy theirs? China printed $25 trillion and we allow them to buy Lisbon and Madrid and Rome with that? How much worse can this get? Portugal is defenseless, because it’s adopted the euro, but Germany would never allow the Chinese money printers to buy Berlin. Need any more info on why the eurozone is such an abject and perverse failure? Guardian:

More Than One Fifth Of UK Workers Earn Less Than Living Wage

More than a fifth of UK workers earn less than the living wage, with bar staff and shop assistants among the most likely to live “hand to mouth” because of low pay, a report warns on Monday. Published to mark living wage week, the research also finds that younger workers, women and part-timers are more likely to be paid less than the living wage, a voluntary threshold calculated to provide a basic but decent standard of living. New living wage rates will be announced on Monday, with the current rate at £8.80 per hour in London and £7.65 elsewhere. The report by consultancy firm KPMG adds to evidence of low pay remaining prevalent in Britain, despite the economic recovery. The proportion of employees on less than the living wage is now 22%, up from 21% last year, the study found. In real terms, that was a rise of 147,000 people to 5.28 million. [..] It found 72% of 18-21 year olds were earning less than the living wage

22% of your working population on less than a living wage is an insane disgrace. Certainly when at the same time you’re telling everyone your economy is doing great. There’s no excuse for that. But it can get worse: if 72% of your young people can’t survive on what they work for, you’re murdering your nation’s future. And your housing market, just to name an example, people can’t start families, it all ties together. MarketWatch:

US Consumers Resisting Enticements To Increase Spending

The U.S. is adding jobs at the fastest rate since the end of the Great Recession and another strong month of hiring is expected in October, but Americans still aren’t spending like good times are here to stay. The lackluster pace of consumer spending — outlays fell in September for the first time in eight months – largely explains why the U.S. is only growing at a post-recession annual average of 2.2%. Yet most economists think that could change in the near future.

The US is adding jobs that don’t pay enough to get people spending who are still buried in debt, just like Europe, just like Japan. That clear enough? The US economy ‘grows’ despite the American people. But ‘most economists think that could change in the near future’. Get a job. CNBC:

Bank of Japan Bazooka To Spark Currency War

The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) stimulus blitz raises the specter of currency wars as a rapidly weakening yen threatens the competitiveness of export-driven economies, say strategists. “Whenever you have these kinds of disruptive moves by central banks, there’s always going to be fall out effects,” said Boris Schlossberg at BK Asset Management. Markets were caught off guard by the BoJ’s announcement on Friday that it would expand purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts, extend the duration of its portfolio of Japanese government bonds (JGBs), and increase the pace of monetary base expansion.

“The hottest currency war today is Japan vs Korea. That’s probably the one to keep an eye on. The yen-won cross rate is very sensitive as Japan and Korea compete in a lot of key areas,” said Sean Callow at Westpac. The Japanese currency has fallen around 20% against the won since the BoJ launched its unprecedented stimulus program in April 2013. Currency strategists say the BoJ’s actions could encourage the Bank of Korea (BoK) to become more defensive against local currency strength through intervention in the foreign exchange market or a rate cut.

That’s the big one for now. It’s not just Japan and Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and quite a few others are in the same merry go round. And of course China, as the following MarketWatch piece identifies: “The move will be particularly problematic for China, as its slow-crawling managed rate to the U.S. dollar renders it is effectively defenseless when confronted by currency wars.”

China Faces Trap In Currency War

Last Friday, the Bank of Japan effectively tossed a grenade into the region’s currency markets with its surprise announcement of a new round of quantitative easing sending the yen to fresh lows. The move will be particularly problematic for China, as its slow-crawling managed rate to the U.S. dollar renders it is effectively defenseless when confronted by currency wars, in which countries try to steal growth from their trading partners through competitive devaluations. It also comes at a time when Beijing is already battling foes on two fronts: hot-money outflows and an economy flirting with deflation. The consensus is that the world’s largest trading nation will resist the temptation to enter the fray with a competitive devaluation or move to a market-based exchange rate. Yet Japan’s latest actions will hurt, as they hold Beijing’s feet to the fire.

As long as China holds its (semi) peg to the USD, it may wake up to some ugly surprises, certainly when USDJPY goes to 120 or beyond. But the, when that happens, China won’t be alone. The next piece by Pater Tenebrarum, h/t Durden, may be the best I’ve read on Japan‘s despair move on Friday:

The Experiment that Will Blow Up the World

In order to explain why the pursuit of Kuroda’s policy is edging ever closer to a catastrophic outcome, we have to delve a bit into the details of Japan’s monetary data. In spite of the BoJ’s “QE” reaching record highs, it mainly creates bank reserves and furthers carry trades. The economy sees no private credit growth so far. Commercial banks in Japan continue to shrink the stock of fiduciary media – this is to say, they are reducing outstanding credit, which makes more and more unbacked deposit money disappear. Hence, Japan’s money supply growth has recently declined to a mere 4.3% year-on-year.

“… the markets are pouncing on the yen because they are forward-looking: the BoJ is monetizing ever more government debt and this is expected to continue, because the public debtberg has become too large to be funded by any other means. In spite of the relatively low money supply growth this debt monetization has produced so far, it also creates the perverse situation that an ever greater portion of the government’s outstanding stock of debt consists actually of debt the government literally “owes to itself”.

Japan has debt levels that are unequalled not just in the world, but most likely in human history, and I’m not saying that to take anything away from the demise of Rome:

And then we get back home with the NAR and Lawrence Yun and all of its cheerleaders, who got their faces all full of mud and shit and sand, and will never admit to it. Zero Hedge:

Why Housing Is Dead: First-Time Buyers Collapse To 27-Year Lows

The Millennials (one of the biggest generations in US history) are just not getting with the status quo program. As we detailed previously, with lower credit scores, less disposable income, and a soaring number of people living with their parents; so it should be no surprise that The National Association of Realtors (NAR) today admitted that first-time homebuyers plunged to the lowest level in 27 years. The blame – of course – rather than low/no-growth fiscal policies, student debt servitude, and inequality-driving cheap-funding monetary policy, is price competition from ‘investors’ and too “stringent credit standards,” perfectly mirroring FHFA’s Mel Watt’s Einsteinian insanity desire to dramatically ease lending standards and slash minimum down-payments (as we noted previously). Perhaps NAR accidentally stumbles on the biggest reason no one is buying in their profiling: the typical first-time buyer was 31-years-old, while the typical repeat buyer was 53 – smack in the middle of the Millennial collapse.

We’ve been keeping the long lost idea of our long lost society alive by squeezing our own children wherever we can, and telling them that if they only work hard enough, they can be whoever they want to be. But they can’t, that notion is also long lost. When you keep home prices artificially high, homeowners don’t suffer as much, even if they bought at insanely high prices, but the suffering is switched to potential buyers, who remain just that, potential, while they live in their mom’s basements for years.

A surefire way to kill a society while everyone’s eagerly awaiting the growth that is just around the corner and will forever remain there. Take it from your kids. Take it from somewhere else in the world.

And that’s where we’re now passing a barrier: there’s no-one to take it from anymore. Not through sleight of hand or spin or propaganda. You can only keep a quarter of your people below living wage levels for so long. Japan can only wage a currency war on its neighbors for so long (not very long). Japan can only wage a consumer price war on its own people for so long.

Japan’s QE9 has set the world on fire. It didn’t need much of a spark to begin with, but it’s certainly got one now.

Nov 012014
 
 November 1, 2014  Posted by at 12:56 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  1 Response »


Jack Delano Window display for Christmas sale, Providence, Rhode Island Dec 1940

Japan Stimulus Likened To Bear Stearns (CNBC)
The BOJ Jumps The Monetary Shark (Stockman)
Japan Risks Asian Currency War With Fresh QE Blitz (AEP)
Markets Are Still Addicted To Money Printing (CNBC)
Central Banks Answer the Markets’ Prayers – For Now (Bloomberg)
Japan’s Shock and Awe (Bloomberg Ed.)
China’s October Factory Growth Unexpectedly Hits 5-Month Low (Reuters)
Gold Sinks To Levels Not Seen Since 2010 (MarketWatch)
Consumer Spending In US Unexpectedly Drops As Incomes Cool (Bloomberg)
Why that Glorious Economy of Ours Feels so Crummy (WolfStreet)
Top US Oil Companies See More Pressure To Clamp Down On Spending (Reuters)
The Failure of Green Energy Policies (Euan Mearns)
Riots, Clashes In France After Activist Dies In Police Grenade Blast (RT)

“First thing that’s going to happen is we’re going to get deflation over here in the U.S.”

Japan Stimulus Likened To Bear Stearns (CNBC)

Stocks closed at all-time highs after the Bank of Japan announced additional monetary stimulus Friday, but Brian Kelly of Brian Kelly Capital said the move gave him serious misgivings. “What they did is outrageous. It is a terrible idea,” he said. “It is going to have massive, massive ramifications. The U.S. stock market hasn’t woken up to it yet, but they absolutely will. “First thing that’s going to happen is we’re going to get deflation over here in the U.S.” Additionally, the country’s Government Pension Investment Fund also said it would put half its assets—roughly $1.14 trillion—in U.S. and Japanese stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 17,390.52, up 1.13%, while the S&P 500 ended at 2,018.15, up 1.17%. On CNBC’s “Fast Money,” Kelly said investors would do well to buy U.S. Treasury bonds. Japan’s additional foreign investment could total about $200 billion going into the U.S. stock and bond markets, he added.

“Once again, everything is going to be manipulated, and eventually when the levee breaks, it’s going to completely fall apart,” he said. Kelly also said he had made a winning bet by being short Japanese yen coming into the trading day, adding the massive Japanese stimulus program gave him pause. “However, I felt this way before—and it was during Bear Stearns. Everybody cheered that Bear Stearns got a bailout from the Fed. And within three days, they were out of business,” he said. “So, this is Japan bailing themselves out, they had no choice. They have to raise taxes. They are now monetizing their debt—100% monetizing their debt, and buying stocks. They’re buying REITs. They’re buying ETFs. It’s insane.” Kelly clarified he wasn’t calling for a massive selloff in the near future. “I’m not saying the market’s going to fall apart on Monday morning,” he said. “I’m just saying it’s the same type of feeling where people are cheering a bailout they shouldn’t cheer.”

Read more …

” … the Japanese bond market soared on this dumping announcement because the JCBs are intended to tumble right into the maws of the BOJ’s endless bid. Charles Ponzi would have been truly envious!”

The BOJ Jumps The Monetary Shark (Stockman)

This is just plain sick. Hardly a day after the greatest central bank fraudster of all time, Maestro Greenspan, confessed that QE has not helped the main street economy and jobs, the lunatics at the BOJ flat-out jumped the monetary shark. Even then, the madman Kuroda pulled off his incendiary maneuver by a bare 5-4 vote. Apparently the dissenters – Messrs. Morimoto, Ishida, Sato and Kiuchi – are only semi-mad. Never mind that the BOJ will now escalate its bond purchase rate to $750 billion per year – a figure so astonishingly large that it would amount to nearly $3 trillion per year if applied to a US scale GDP. And that comes on top of a central bank balance sheet which had previously exploded to nearly 50% of Japan’s national income or more than double the already mind-boggling US ratio of 25%.

In fact, this was just the beginning of a Ponzi scheme so vast that in a matter of seconds its ignited the Japanese stock averages by 5%. And here’s the reason: Japan Inc. is fixing to inject a massive bid into the stock market based on a monumental emission of central bank credit created out of thin air. So doing, it has generated the greatest front-running frenzy ever recorded. The scheme is so insane that the surge of markets around the world in response to the BOJ’s announcement is proof positive that the mother of all central bank bubbles now envelopes the entire globe. Specifically, in order to go on a stock buying spree, Japan’s state pension fund (the GPIF) intends to dump massive amounts of Japanese government bonds (JCB’s). This will enable it to reduce its government bond holding – built up over decades – from about 60% to only 35% of its portfolio.

Needless to say, in an even quasi-honest capital market, the GPIF’s announced plan would unleash a relentless wave of selling and price decline. Yet, instead, the Japanese bond market soared on this dumping announcement because the JCBs are intended to tumble right into the maws of the BOJ’s endless bid. Charles Ponzi would have been truly envious! Accordingly, the 10-year JGB is now trading at a microscopic 43 bps and the 5-year at a hardly recordable 11 bps. So, say again. The purpose of all this massive money printing is to drive the inflation rate to 2%. Nevertheless, Japanese government debt is heading deeper into the land of negative real returns because there are no rational buyers left in the market – just the BOJ and some robots trading for a few bps of spread on the carry.

Read more …

You won’t have to wait long to find out just how destructive this is.

Japan Risks Asian Currency War With Fresh QE Blitz (AEP)

The Bank of Japan has stunned the world with fresh blitz of stimulus, pushing quantitative easing to unprecedented levels in a bid to drive down the yen and avert a relapse into deflation. The move set off a euphoric rally on global equity markets but the economic consequences may be less benign. Critics say it threatens a trade shock across Asia in what amounts to currency warfare, risking serious tensions with China and Korea, and tightening the deflationary noose on Europe. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) voted by 5:4 in a hotly-contested decision to boost its asset purchases by a quarter to roughly $700bn a year, covering the fiscal deficit and the lion’s share of Japan’s annual budget. “They are monetizing the national debt even if they don’t want to admit it,” said Marc Ostwald, from Monument Securities. In a telling move, the bank will concentrate fresh firepower on Japanese government bonds (JGBs), pushing the average maturity out to seven to 10 years.

It also pledged to triple the amount that will be injected directly into the Tokyo stock market through exchange-traded funds, triggering a 4.3pc surge in the Topix index. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the fresh stimulus was intended to “pre-empt” mounting deflation risks in the world, and vowed to do what ever it takes to lift inflation to 2pc and see through Japan’s “Abenomics” revolution. “We are at a critical moment in our efforts to break free from the deflationary mindset,” he said. The unstated purpose of Mr Kuroda’s reflation drive is to lift nominal GDP growth to 5pc a year. The finance ministry deems this the minimum level needed to stop a public debt of 245pc of GDP from spinning out of control. The intention is to erode the debt burden through a mix of higher growth and negative real interest rates, a de facto tax on savings. Mr Kuroda’s own credibility is at stake since he said in July that there was “no chance” of core inflation falling below 1pc. It now threatens to do exactly that as the economy struggles to overcome a sharp rise in the sales tax from 5pc to 8pc in April.

Read more …

100%.

Markets Are Still Addicted To Money Printing (CNBC)

Friday’s stock surge provides yet another reminder that when it comes to moving the market, there’s nothing like a little old-fashioned money printing. What waits on the other side—asset bubbles, inflation, the prospects for still greater wealth disparity—remains, of course, an issue for another day. The important thing is that the market wants what the market wants, and the Bank of Japan appears only too happy to comply, announcing a fairly aggressive stimulus package Friday that traders cheered by pushing the major averages back near record territory. The announcement came just two days after the Federal Reserve—the BOJ’s U.S. counterpart—said it was ending a quantitative easing program that saw its balance sheet swell by nearly $4 trillion since its inception. “So much for the end of QE! The Bank of Japan’s announcement today that it is stepping up its asset purchases is a timely reminder that not everyone has to follow the Fed,” Julian Jessop, chief global economist at Capital Economics, said.

“Further QE in Japan should help to support equity prices worldwide and especially in the euro zone if expectations build that the (European Central Bank) will follow with full-blown QE of its own.” Indeed, Wall Street is rubbing its hands together contemplating that at a time when global growth appears to be slowing, the willingness of central banks to crank up their virtual printing presses hasn’t abated a bit, the Fed notwithstanding. Of course there are words of caution: Jessop warned investors not to go “overboard” in their enthusiasm over the BOJ’s move. At current exchange rates, the action amounts to just more than a quarter of the $85 billion a month the Fed was adding when it it began the third leg of its QE program. Even Europe may not deliver the goods to the extent the market hopes.

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Clueless.

Central Banks Answer the Markets’ Prayers – For Now (Bloomberg)

It’s the party that just keeps going: the first batch of guests leave, the next ones arrive. Just as the U.S. Federal Reserve winds down its asset purchases, the Bank of Japan expands its own program. World stock markets, rejoice! For a while anyway. So far, quantitative easing, the policy of national bond purchases has arguably succeeded in perking up the economy, almost certainly succeeded in helping along the stock market and (this is key) certainly not led to the out-of-control inflation that critics predicted. Bloomberg Businessweek’s Peter Coy answers some of the folks who were sure bond buying would lead to economic catastrophe and still won’t admit they’re wrong.

That said, don’t get too comfortable. Central bank asset purchases dramatically lower bond returns and effectively push money into the stock market. When they end, the flow of money reverses. The idea is to do it slowly and gradually and not cause a panic. So far the Fed is succeeding. However, over the long run pulling out of the stimulus without scaring the markets is a tough difficult maneuver to pull off (and stock market returns aren’t necessarily the central bank’s concern. The Bank of Japan pulled out of its last stimulus program, in 2006, fairly smoothly. But as the chart below shows, it was the prelude to three years of market declines.

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Here’s how clueless the Bloomberg editorial staff is: “Abe has shown no great zeal for exposing farmers to foreign competition or freeing up the labor market. Japan’s agricultural protections are a double burden, because it’s holding up agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade pact. A breakthrough on farm trade is just the tonic Japan needs.”

Japan’s Shock and Awe (Bloomberg Ed.)

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stunned investors today by announcing a big expansion of the central bank’s bond-buying program. The move won’t fix Japan’s ailing economy by itself, but it might help, and Kuroda is right to try. The U.S. Federal Reserve likes to signal its intentions and avoid taking financial markets by surprise. Kuroda prefers shock and awe. Investors were wrong-footed by the scale of the BOJ’s quantitative easing when it was first announced last year. Now Kuroda has ambushed them again. Few expected the scale of purchases to be ramped up so soon – to 80 trillion yen a year ($724 billion), from 60 trillion to 70 trillion. Just three of 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted it. Kuroda’s board was surprised as well, and was divided on the announcement. If Kuroda wanted investors to sit up and pay attention, it worked.

Fed doctrine notwithstanding, the element of surprise serves a purpose. QE works partly because it sends a message to investors that the central bank is determined to be forceful. At the moment, Japan’s economy needs all the forceful support it can get. The main worry is that inflation is falling again. After rising to 1.5% earlier this year, as the BOJ intended, the rate has since fallen back to 1%. The central bank’s target of 2% looked to be moving out of reach. Kuroda is saying he isn’t about to let that happen. The problem is that the BOJ can’t repair Japan’s economy by itself. At the moment, macroeconomic policy is pulling in two directions: bold stimulus from the central bank combined with a recent hefty sales-tax increase to cut public debt, with another tax increase planned for next year. The tax rise appears to have had a more dampening effect on the economy than expected. Yet it’s hard to deny that it was needed: After years of high borrowing and stagnant growth, Japan’s public debt is enormous.

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How long before we get some real bad numbers out of China from some unexpected source?

China’s October Factory Growth Unexpectedly Hits 5-Month Low (Reuters)

China’s factory activity unexpectedly fell to a five-month low in October as firms fought slowing orders and rising costs in the cooling economy, reinforcing views that the country’s growth outlook is hazy at best. The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased to 50.8 in October from September’s 51.1, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday, but above the 50-point level that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 51.2.

Underscoring the challenges facing the world’s second-largest economy, the PMI showed foreign and domestic demand slipped to five- and six-month lows, respectively, with overseas orders shrinking slightly on a monthly basis. “There remains downward pressure on the economy, and monetary policy will remain easy,” economists at China International Capital Corp said in a note to clients after the data. Noting that inventory levels of unsold goods rose last month even as factories cut output levels and drew down on stocks of raw materials, the investment bank argued that the economy still faced tepid demand.

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We’re sure to have some fun conversations on gold going forward.

Gold Sinks To Levels Not Seen Since 2010 (MarketWatch)

Gold took a hard fall on Friday, at one point trading at levels not seen since 2010, as the dollar surged in the wake of a surprise stimulus move from the BOJ\. Gold for December delivery slumped $27, or 2.3%, to settle at $1,171.60 an ounce, closing out the week 5.3% lower. The precious metal shed 3.7% in October and is down 3.3% for the year to date. December silver gave up 31 cents to $16.11 an ounce. A more hawkish-than expected Fed statement has already been weighing on gold this week. The Fed’s ending of its bond-buying stimulus program on Wednesday smacked prices hard as gold shed 2.2% amid signs of a healing economy. The U.S. economy expanded 3.5% in the third quarter, data showed Thursday. “The surprisingly robust US GDP figures yesterday confirmed the Fed’s more optimistic economic outlook of the day before and thus indirectly dampened demand for gold as a safe haven,” said analysts at Commerzbank, in a note.

Gold was further pummeled after the Bank of Japan shocked markets with a move to expand the pace of quantitative easing, triggering a 5% surge in the Nikkei 225 index. The dollar touched its highest level against the yen since January 2008. The BOJ expanded the size of its Japanese Government Bond purchases to the equivalent of “about 80 trillion yen” ($727 billion) a year, a rise of ¥30 trillion on the previous amount. It also said it would buy longer-dated JGBs, and triple its purchase of exchange-traded funds and real-estate investment trusts. Gold losses speeded up as a pageant of economic numbers rolled out, including one that showed a slowdown in consumer spending. Commzerbank said gold has taken out its psychologically important $1,200 per troy ounce mark, but also its four-year low of around $1,180. Jim Wyckoff, a Kitco analyst, is more pessimistic on gold than he has been in a while, and noted that prices could be in trouble if they don’t hold the $1,183 level. “If [gold] prices fall below that, you’ll probably see a stiff leg down in prices, and a challenge of $1,000 could not be ruled out,” he warned.

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Big number. No snow, no excuses, just a bad print. With no other reason than people simply don’t have the spending power.

Consumer Spending In US Unexpectedly Drops As Incomes Cool (Bloomberg)

The drop in fuel prices couldn’t have come at a better time for the U.S. economy. Consumer spending unexpectedly dropped 0.2% in September, weaker than any economist projected in a Bloomberg survey, after rising 0.5% in August, according to Commerce Department data issued today in Washington. The report also showed incomes rose at a slower pace last month. “This is a little blip, a bit of payback, but all the numbers are pointing to solid growth between now and the end of the year,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist of IHS, who is among the top-ranked forecasters of consumer spending over the past two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “There are a variety of factors that are playing into it. Better finances for consumers, very good jobs growth and you’ve got more money in consumers’ pockets because of lower gasoline prices.” The lowest costs at the gas pump in four years and the biggest payroll gains in more than a decade are projected to lift buying power and household purchases heading into the holiday-shopping season.

Other reports today showed consumer confidence jumped this month to a seven-year high and manufacturing in the Chicago area picked up, bolstering prospects for a rebound. The U.S. consumer spending data showed that after adjusting for inflation, which generates the figures used to calculate gross domestic product, purchases also dropped 0.2% last month after a 0.5% gain in August. The data provided a monthly breakdown of the third-quarter figures issued yesterday. That report showed consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of the economy, climbed at a 1.8% pace after growing at a 2.5% rate in the previous three months. The weak reading at the end of the quarter gives consumption little momentum heading into the last three months of the year. In a research note, economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York said it will probably be difficult to reach their 2.9% spending forecast for the fourth quarter, though they maintained the projection until more data are available.

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More slices cut from the same pie.

Why that Glorious Economy of Ours Feels so Crummy (WolfStreet)

That the economy grew at a “faster than expected” annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter has been touted as a sign that now – finally, after years of false promises – it is reaching that ever elusive “escape velocity.” But instantly, people with keen eyes began to quibble with it. One big factor was military spending, which spiked 16%, the fasted since Q2 2009. This rate is based on the increase from the second quarter that is then annualized, assuming that spending wound continue at this rate for a year. This type of quarter-to-quarter annualized rate is volatile. For example, it plunged 20% in Q4 2012, jumped 17% in Q2 2009, and 18% in Q3 2008. Spikes and plunges often run in sequence (chart). In reality…. According to data from the US Treasury, the Department of Defense spent $149 billion in Q3, which was actually down a smidgen from the $150 billion it spent in Q3 2013.

This lets out a lot of hot air. That spike was likely a fluke, much like other spikes and plunges before it, and much of it may well be undone in Q4. The other two big factors in that “faster than expected” growth of GDP were inventories, which ballooned and will eventually have to be whittled back down, and exports. The surges in these three categories caused JPMorgan to cut its Q4 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 3.0%. “All three of these categories tend to be associated with payback the following quarter,” explained chief US economist Michael Feroli. And the crux of the economy, the consumer? “Still plodding along in a steady, but unspectacular, manner….” Whether or not that annualized quarterly rate of 3.5% was a mirage – year over year, the economy grew by just 2.3%.

A growth rate barely above 2% is exactly where the US economy has been for the last five years! Nothing has changed. For a recovery by US standards, it’s a very crummy growth rate, and far from the escape velocity that Wall Street hype artists have predicted for years in their justification for the ceaselessly skyrocketing stock market. But it gets worse. The population in the US has been growing too. And the economic pie has to be divvied up among more people. So the pie has to grow faster than the population or else, on an individual basis, that growing overall economy, gets cut into smaller slices of the pie.

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But without spending they lose even more reserves and production …

Top US Oil Companies See More Pressure To Clamp Down On Spending (Reuters)

Top U.S. oil producers, which already were reining in spending before crude prices started to slip in June, are now looking to trim more fat from their budgets while reminding investors they must spend to grow. Exxon Mobil said on Friday it would keep its current spending plan intact, though it is about 15% less than 2013. ConocoPhillips said it will spend less money next year, and Chevron said it is looking for budget “flexibility.” Crude oil prices have slumped 25% since June as global supplies grow and demand weakens. Exxon, which sets budgets using a long-term horizon, still expects to spend a little bit less than $37 billion a year from 2015 to 2017, an executive told investors on Friday on a conference call. “We always are mindful of what’s happening in the near future but I keep on pulling back that we are a long-term investor,” said Jeff Woodbury, Exxon’s head of investor relations.

Exxon tests projects “across the full range of economic parameters including price” to ensure favorable returns, he said. The Irving, Texas company saw capital spending peak at $42.5 billion last year when it was advancing projects to deliver future production growth. Exxon has spent $28 billion so far this year, down 14% versus the first nine months of 2013. ConocoPhillips, the largest independent oil and gas company, said on Thursday it plans to spend less than $16 billion next year, below the $16.7 billion it expects to spend in 2014. “(Capital spending) is going to be lower because of the commodity price environment,” Jeff Sheets, ConocoPhillip’s chief financial officer said in an interview with Reuters. “We have the flexibility in our capital program to reduce it without giving up any opportunities.”

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Not sure I’m happy with how Euan places nuclear so close to renewables.

The Failure of Green Energy Policies (Euan Mearns)

Whilst enjoying the good natured exchanges on this blog concerning the pros and cons of new renewable energy sources I decided to dig deeper into the success of Green energy policies to date. Roger Andrews produced this chart the other day and the low carbon energy trends caught my eye. It is important to recall that well over $1,700,000,000,000 ($1.7 trillion) has been spent on installing wind and solar devices in recent years with the sole objective of reducing global CO2 emissions. It transpires that since 1995 low carbon energy sources (nuclear, hydro and other renewables) share of global energy consumption has not changed at all (Figure 1). New renewables have not even replaced lost nuclear generating capacity since 1999 (Figure 2). ZERO CO2 has been abated and the world has done zilch to prepare itself for the expected declines (escalating costs) of fossil fuels in the decades ahead. If this is not total policy failure, what is?

Figure 1 Nuclear, Hydro and Other Renewables (mainly wind and solar) expressed as % of total global energy consumption. The combined low carbon share reached 13.1% in 1995. In 2013 it was 13.3%. From this chart it is easy to see that Other Renewables have simply compensated for the decline in nuclear power a point made more clear in Figure 2.

One of the main problems with Green thinking is that many Greens are against both fossil fuel (FF) based energy and nuclear power. There are some notable exceptions, James Lovelock and George Monbiot, and I recognise that a number of the “pro-renewable” commenters on this blog are at least not anti-nuclear. It would also be unfair to blame the relative decline of nuclear power since 2001 exclusively on Greens but they do have to shoulder a significant slice of that responsibility.

Figure 2 shows that the recent growth in Other Renewables does not compensate for the relative decline in nuclear power. What is more, stable base load is being replaced with intermittent supply that is seldom correlated with demand. FF generation is wrestling in the background, unloved and unappreciated, maintaining order in our society.

Figure 2 Nuclear and Other Renewables as a%age of total global energy consumption. Nuclear’s contribution peaked in 2001 and the decline in nuclear since then has not been fully compensated by the rapid expansion of renewables.

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All about a dam.

Riots, Clashes In France After Activist Dies In Police Grenade Blast (RT)

Another anti-police brutality protest turned violent in the French city of Rennes, with masked youths and police engaging in running street battles. The unrest follows the death of a young environmental activist earlier this week. Overnight Thursday, protesters in the northwestern city lobbed flairs at police and flipped over cars, some of which they set ablaze. Police responded by firing tear gas. The number of arrests or injures, if any, remains unclear. A similar protest in Paris on Wednesday also descended into violence. Around 250 people gathered outside City Hall in Paris, with some throwing rocks at police and writing “Remi is dead, the state kills” on walls, The Local’s French edition reports. At least 33 people were taken into police custody following the unrest. The protests are in response to the death of 21-year-old activist Remi Fraisse. He was killed early on Sunday by an explosion, which occurred during violent clashes with police at the site of a contested-dam project in southwestern France.

His death, the first in a mainland protest in France since 1986, has been blamed on a concussion grenade fired by police. France’s Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, who came under serious pressure to resign following the incident, announced an immediate suspension of such grenades, which are intended to stun rather than kill. On Monday, outrage at Fraisse’s death sparked protests in several French cities. Violence erupted in Albi, the town close to the dam, as well as in Nantes and Rennes. Fraisse was one of 2,000 activists present in the southwestern Tarn region to protest the €8.4m ($10.7) million Sivens dam project. Activists said the project would harm the environment, but officials say it is needed to irrigate farm land and boost the local economy. On Friday, however, local authorities suspended work on the project, saying it would be impossible to continue in light of current events. The executive council, however, which is tasked with overseeing the project, has not ruled to abandon it all together.

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Oct 132014
 
 October 13, 2014  Posted by at 9:18 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , ,  7 Responses »


Edwin Rosskam Service station on Connecticut Ave., Washington DC Sep 1940

It’s easily been longer than I care to remember that I first wrote it was only a matter of time before individual OPEC members would throw out the cartel’s agreements on prices and production, and just produce at full force and capacity, and then some. We may have seen that time arrive.

The underlying reason I first talked about it was two-fold. First: the economic crisis, which could lead to one thing only: less global demand. And second: the fast increasing wealth and population numbers in oil-producing nations which, as initially defined by Jeffrey Brown and Sam Foucher in the Export Land Model, has proven to be a much bigger factor in OPEC economies than people realized.

Hardly anyone, still to this day, talks about the Export Land Model, but birth rates in Arab oil producing nations have been sky-high for many years, and the fact that in a country like Saudi Arabia some 50% of the population is younger than 20 years old, has enormous consequences domestically. Certainly with the King and the rest of the reigning class seriously getting on in age.

A generational clash can be avoided only by pampering the young, and that comes with a big surge in domestic demand for oil. And since for many young people there are no jobs, Saudi Arabia has no industries to speak of, there are many who follow the example of Saudi’s like Osama Bin Laden into extremism.

Wait, first let me point to a nice piece of Fed ‘communication’. There’s been an entire parade of Fed heads paraded in the media lately, and one of the major issued addressed is that the global slowdown, which finally looks to have sunk in all over the place, would cause Yellen et al to be careful with, and postpone if needed, its interest rate hikes. Analysts and ‘experts’ also look to be wholly convinced of this. But then comes vice head Stanley Fisher and says a rate hike wouldn’t hurt anyone anyway:

Fed’s Fischer Says Rate Hike Won’t Damage Global Economy

The Federal Reserve’s eventual rate increase, the first since 2006, will not damage the global economy, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Saturday. While there could be “trigger further bouts of volatility” in international markets when the Fed first hikes, “the normalization of our policy should prove manageable for the emerging market economies,” Fischer said in a speech at the IMF’s annual meeting.

[..] Since last year, Fischer said, the Fed has “done everything we can, within limits of forecast uncertainty, to prepare market participants for what lies ahead.” The Fed has been as clear as it can be about the future course of its policy course, and markets understand, Fischer said. “We think, looking at market interest rates, that their understanding of what we intend to do is roughly correct … ”

Any emerging market governments paying attention should feel a shiver of cold air when reading that. Fisher provides the Fed with an alibi here: if, make that when, rate hikes start makes victims, Fisher and Yellen can say they had no idea, that their models clearly stated that would not happen. Don’t count on them waiting.

Then back to OPEC. Like the EU, 54-year old OPEC has lived past its best before date. Predictably, individual members’ interests have started to diverge too much for it to remain a coherent entity. And the divergence widens fast these days.

I’ve hinted before at the long-standing cooperation between the US and Saudi Arabia, and there’s little doubt in my mind that the two are up to something. Washington has it in for Putin, first and foremost. The ‘Ukraine project’ has not brought what was intended.

Russia also still stands behind its only Middle East sphere of influence, Syria, something the Saudis like as little as America (but which Moscow won’t give up and and end up with zero say in the region) . And there’s always Venezuela, OPEC member and very vulnerable to power oil prices. Then there are a dozen other possible ‘targets’ among oil producers that the Saudi/US partnership may want to weaken. Who likes Iran, for one thing?

We’ve known for a while that the Saudis were lowering their prices. Which is something other OPEC members will be plenty upset about. But now we find out they’re also increasing production, and trying to catch EUropean and Asian customers before other fellow members can. That adds a whole extra dimension to the story:

Saudis Make Aggressive Oil Push in Europe

Days after slashing prices in Asia, Saudi Arabia is now making an aggressive push in the European oil market, traders say. The kingdom is taking the unusual step of asking buyers to commit to maximum shipments if they want to get its crude. “The Saudi push is not just in Asia. It’s a global phenomenon,” one oil trader said. “They are using very aggressive tactics” in Europe too, the trader added.

This month, state-owned Saudi Aramco stunned the rest of OPEC by slashing its November prices to defend its market share in Asia’s growing market. The move, setting a price war in the oil-production group, was combined with a boost in the kingdom’s output in September.

But Riyadh is also moving to protect its sales to Europe, a declining market where it is facing rivalry from returning Libyan production. After cutting its November prices there, Saudi Aramco is also asking refiners to commit to full, fixed deliveries in talks to renew contracts for next year, the traders say. [..] “They are threatening buyers” to discontinue sales if they don’t agree with the fixed deliveries, another trader said.

What follows from that is that Saudi Arabia more or less unilaterally decides where oil prices are going. Iran and Iraq have already announced price cuts, and the rest has no choice but to follow, no matter how badly they need higher prices. It’s a kind of musical chairs, and quite a few nations will fall be the wayside. Though not necessarily Russia.

Algeria and Kuwait, for whatever reasons, seem to be lined up with the Saud family against the rest of OPEC:

Oil Bear Market Tests OPEC Unity as Venezuela Seeks Meeting

Oil ministers from Kuwait and Algeria dismissed possible production cuts as crude’s slump to a four-year low prompted Venezuela to call for an emergency meeting of OPEC. [..] Bear markets for Brent and U.S. crude are putting pressure on OPEC’s consensus on output ahead of the group’s scheduled Nov. 27 meeting in Vienna …

OPEC supplies 40% of the world’s oil, and its largest Persian Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran, are offering deeper discounts to buyers in Asia to maintain market share amid a global glut. “If we had a way to preserve the stability of prices or something that would bring it back to previous levels, we would not hesitate in that,” Kuwait’sAl-Omair said in remarks reported by KUNA yesterday. “There is no room for countries to reduce their production,” he said, without giving details.

Ample supply, helped by surging U.S. and Russian output, pushed Brent crude into a bear market last week. The European benchmark slumped more than 20% from its peak for the year on June 19, meeting a common definition of a bear market. Brent fell on Oct. 10 to its lowest since December 2010.

“This is going to increase pressure for Saudi Arabia to cut output to raise prices …” “They are increasingly giving signs they won’t do it on their own. Saudi Arabia doesn’t want to lose market share in Asia … ”.

OPEC is boosting production as its members fight for market share and seek to meet rising domestic demand. [..] Saudi Arabia, Iran and most recently Iraq all widened the discounts they’ll offer on their main grades sold to Asia next month to the most since at least 2009.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro gave instructions to ask for an extraordinary OPEC meeting, the country’s foreign ministry said in a post on its Twitter account on Oct. 10. “The price of oil is important for our country, and we’ll start actions to stop its fall,” the ministry cited former oil minister Rafael Ramirez as saying.

Crude prices have fallen because of several factors, including U.S. shale production, geopolitics and speculation, Algeria’s Yousfi said yesterday at a news conference in the city of Oran. “We follow with great attention the level of oil prices, but we are very tranquil,” he said. Crude probably won’t fall below $76 to $77 a barrel because that price level represents the highest cost of production in the U.S. and Russia, Al-Omair of Kuwait said. Both countries have abundant supply and are outside the group..

‘There is no room for countries to reduce their production’, says Kuwait. In other words, it’s everybody for themselves. Because supply and demand numbers seem to indicate there’s lots of room to cut production. So that can’t be it. Still, production rises in Saudi Arabia, US, Russia and undoubtedly many other producing nations. What else can they do when prices fall, but try and sell higher volumes to the highest bidder, as demand wanes in a shrinking global economy that’s done blowing bubbles? There’s nothing left but to pump all out and hope for the best.

OPEC Members’ Rift Deepens Amid Falling Oil Prices

A rift between OPEC members deepened over the weekend, as producers in the cartel moved in different directions amid falling oil prices. Venezuela, which has been one of the most outspoken proponents of a production cut by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, called over the weekend for an emergency meeting of the group to respond to falling prices. But Kuwait said Sunday that OPEC was unlikely to act to rein in output.

Also on Sunday, Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Company cut the price of Basrah Light crude in November for Asian and European buyers by 65 cents to a discount of $3.15 a barrel below the Oman/Dubai benchmark for Asian customers and $5.40 below the Brent benchmark for European customers…

The moves and countermoves are the latest in a time of particular discord in OPEC. The organization was founded to leverage members collective output to help influence global prices. In recent periods of low prices, Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s top producer and de facto leader has managed to cobble together some level of consensus.

But even modest cooperation between many members has broken down, and Saudi Arabia, in particular, has moved to act on its own. While it cut output earlier this summer, other members didn’t go along. Since then, it has dropped its prices.

Each member has a different tolerance for lower prices. Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia generally don’t need prices quite as high as Iran and Venezuela to keep their budgets in the black.

The 3 easy steps to blow up OPEC are easy indeed. The question may be why now, and why the way it happens. But that it’s happening is clear.

  • Step 1: raise output
  • Step 2: lower prices
  • Step 3: watch member nations’ governments go down like cats in a sack, trying to keep control of their societies.
  • Step 3a: yank up the US dollar

This is not a purely economic issue, it’s political. The US has a large voice in it in the director’s role, and the House of Saud plays the part of the protagonist. This is a major development in world politics, it’s not just some financial market-driven move.

World power relations are being hugely changed on the fly as we’re all watching and trying to figure what to make of all this. One thing’s for sure: the world will never be the same.

Why it happens now is a great question, which is impossible to answer. And that’s fine: it’s enough to try and understand exactly what is going on, let alone why.

But I bet you it has to do with the US and Europe realizing they can no longer keep pretending their economies are growing or recovering or doing fine.

We’ve landed in the next phase of what arguably started in 2007, but what you could place back many years before that, an economic system based on the fantasy that is debt driven growth, inflated by a factor of a trillion, give or take a few zeros.

That system is in the process of dying. And the people who have tried to make you believe, and succeeded, that it would all be fine in the end, are now jockeying for position in the aftermath of the demise of a world built on debt.

And they are the same people who built that world, profited from it to an insane degree, and want to use those profits to hang on to power in a world that will be dramatically different from the one they called the shots in. And that doesn’t bode well; it tells us violent clashes will be on the horizon.